Calculo de Probabilidad

Actividad Optimista (a) Mas probable Pesimista (b) Tiempo Varianza

(m) Esperado
1 2 4 5 3.83 0.25
2 4 8 9 7 0.69 RC
3 4 5 9 7.50 0.69
4 2 5 7 4.83 0.69
5 3 5 6 4.83 0.25
6 4 5 7 5.17 0.25
7 2 5 7 4.83 0.69
8 3 4 6 4.17 0.25
9 2 2 5 2.50 0.25
10 1 3 3 2.67 0.11
11 2 5 6 4.67 0.44
12 3 4 6 4.17 0.25 RC
13 1 6 7 5.33 1.00 RC
14 4 7 8 6.67 0.44 RC
15 5 8 9 7.67 0.44 RC
16 3 6 8 5.83 0.69
17 1 4 7 4 1.00
18 6 10 12 9.67 1.00
19 5 8 9 7.67 0.44
20 2 3 6 3.33 0.44
21 5 7 9 7 0.44 RC
22 8 12 13 11.50 0.69
23 2 4 5 3.83 0.25
24 5 9 11 8.67 1.00
25 5 7 9 7 0.44
26 4 7 8 6.67 0.44
27 4 9 10 8.33 1.00 RC
28 4 6 8 6 0.44
29 7 12 13 11.33 1.00
30 6 9 10 8.67 0.44
31 5 7 9 7 0.44
32 3 5 6 4.83 0.25
33 5 7 9 7 0.44
34 4 5 7 5.17 0.25 RC
35 4 6 8 6 0.44
36 3 4 7 4.33 0.44
37 1 2 4 2.17 0.25
38 6 10 11 9.50 0.69
39 5 7 9 7 0.44
40 3 5 9 5.33 1.00
41 4 7 8 6.67 0.44
42 2 5 7 4.83 0.69
43 5 7 8 6.83 0.25 RC
44 1 4 7 4 1.00
45 2 3 6 3.33 0.44
46 2 5 7 4.83 0.69
47 1 2 5 2.33 0.44
48 4 7 8 6.67 0.44
49 3 5 9 5.33 1.00
50 5 7 8 6.83 0.25
51 3 5 9 5.33 1.00
52 7 12 13 11.33 1.00 RC
53 2 3 6 3.33 0.44
54 1 2 4 2.17 0.25
55 2 4 5 3.83 0.25
56 2 3 6 3.33 0.44
57 1 2 5 2.33 0.44
58 2 5 7 4.83 0.69
59 2 3 6 3.33 0.69
60 2 4 5 3.83 0.25
61 4 6 8 6 0.44
62 5 7 9 7 0.44
63 14 19 20 18.33 1.00 RC
64 6 10 11 9.50 0.69 RC
 Formulas:
a + b + 4m b-a
D= V= ( )
6 6
Probabilidad de Terminación del Proyecto

Evento Ruta E(Mi) Var (Mi) TPi Ki P(z<= Ki)

1 1,6 8 0.69 10 2.41 0.9920
2 1,6,7 12 0.94 9 -3.09 0.0010
3 1,6,7,8 18 1.94 14 -2.87 0.0021
4 1,6,7,8,9 25 2.38 21 -2.59 0.0048
5 1,6,7,8,9,5 33 2.82 38 2.98 0.9986
6 1,6,7,8,9,5,10 43 3.26 47 2.22 0.9868
7 1,6,7,8,9,5,10,17 53 4.26 53 0 0.5000
8 1,6,7,8,9,5,10,17,24 63 4.51 69 2.83 0.9977
9 1,6,7,8,9,5,10,17,24,32 73 4.76 80 3.21 0.9993
10 1,6,7,8,9,5,10,17,24,32,42 83 5.76 86 1.25 0.8044
11 1,6,7,8,9,5,10,17,24,32,42,52 93 6.76 86 -2.69 0.0036
12 1,6,7,8,9,5,10,17,24,32,42,52,64 103 7.45 96 -2.56 0.0052
 TPi - E
Formula Ki =
Raíz de la varianza