Transportation and Land Use

and Integrated Models

Dimantha De Silva
 Transportation
is part of
larger
Spatial Activity System
• Demand for transportation is ‘derived’
– People want to go somewhere to do something at the destination
• Household Activities
• Work Activities
– Goods shipped from production location to consumption location
• Transportation part of larger system
• Exception: Recreational Travel – very small proportion
– Exercise – people and/or pets
– Touring
 White collar
labour Households

Office

Retail

Blue collar
Households
labour

Industries
 Transport System

Activity
Locations

price
signals

Transport Transport
Demands Supply
flows
Activity
Locations

price
signals Environment
(externalities)

Society &
Transport Economy Transport
Demands Supply
flows
 Land Use
• DEFINITION: Spatial pattern of different
economic uses of land
– Residential
– Industrial
– Commercial
– Institutional
• A component of the urban system
• Defines, at least in part, the ‘personality’ of
a city
Land Use
 Land Use
• Key concepts
– Urban form: spatial
arrangement of built
environment elements
and urban activities
• Density
• Homogeneity
• Concentricity
• Connectivity
Land Use - Transportation
Land Use - Transportation
 Land Use Systems
Activity Labor and
consumptions
Totals Capital
Supply

Activity occupancies Land and

Locations Floorspace
Supply

price
Activity signals
Interactions

Transport Transport
Demands Supply
flows
Activity Labor and
consumptions
Totals Capital
Supply

Activity occupancies Land and

Locations Floorspace
Supply

price
Activity signals Society Environment
Interactions (externalities)

Transport Transport
Demands Supply
flows
Activity Labor and
consumptions
Totals Capital
LAND USE Supply
SYSTEM
Activity occupancies Land and
Locations Floorspace
Supply

price
Activity signals Society Environment
Interactions (externalities
)
TRANSPORT
Transport Transport
Demands
SYSTEM Supply
flows
Activity Labor and
consumption
Totals Capital
s
LAND USE Supply
SYSTEM
Activity occupancies Land and
Locations Floorspace
Supply

price
Activity signals Society Environment
Interactions (externalities)

TRANSPORT
Transport Transport
Demands
SYSTEM Supply
flows
 Land Use - Transportation
• Changes in location,
type and density of
land use affects travel
choices and patterns
• Past transportation
decisions evident in
today’s development
patterns
 Accessibility
• Attribute of a location or zone
• Numerical indication of location’s
‘closeness’ to ‘opportunities’
• Result of transportation system and spatial
distribution of activities
• Influences appeal of location as a place to
locate
• Can be assessed separately for different
modes, activities, etc.
 Accessibility
Employment School Shopping Recreation

Automobile

Transit

Bicycle

Walk
 Accessibility
• NOT to do with
– Mobility
– Physical disabilities
 Land Use Concerns
Urban Sprawl
Urban Sprawl
Urban Sprawl
Urban Sprawl
Urban Sprawl
Urban Sprawl
 Urban Sprawl

Negatives Positives
• Higher Infrastructure • Lower Housing Costs
and Public Operating • Enhances Personal
Costs and Public Open
• Consumption of Space
Prime Agricultural • More Homogenous
Land Space
• Lack of Community • Lower Crime Rate
Sense
• Live “The Dream”
• Worsens Pollution
 Transportation and Sprawl
• More Vehicle
Kilometers Travelled
(VKT)
• Longer Travel Times
• Greater Number of
Auto Trips
• Less Cost-Effective
and Efficient Transit
Testbed Application
Alternative Policy Test 2
30% space rent subsidy
Reference Case
zones 202, 203, 204
Testbed Application
Alternative Policy Test 3
50% development cost subsidy
Reference Case
zones 202, 203, 204
Testbed Application
Alternative Policy Test 5 double travel
Reference Case costs everywhere
Testbed Application
Alternative Policy Test 6 new freeway; reduced
Reference Case travel times and costs
Effect of the Southern Expressway
 Effect of the Southern Expressway

Households
migrations

Residential
Growth

Year = t
 Effect of the Southern Expressway
Housing
Price

Housing
Price
Residential
Growth

Year = t
 Effect of the Southern Expressway
Housing
Price

Households
migrations

Housing
Price
Residential
Growth

Year = t +n
 What is an integrated model?
An integrated urban model is
Demographics Land Use intended to represent the spatial
evolution of a given study region
Regional Economics system state over time as a function
Location Choice
of various socio-economic,
demographic and political processes.
Auto Ownership Key words:
Government Policies
• Spatial
• Time, evolution
Activity/Travel &
Goods Movement • Socio-economic, demographic,
Transport System political
Travel choices
(route, mode, time, etc.)

Flows, Times, etc. External Impacts

Transportation and urban form
are fundamentally linked. How
we build our city directly
determines travel needs, viability
of alternative travel modes, etc.

Transportation, in turn, influences

land development and location
choices of people & firms.
To understand these complex transportation – urban form interactions
and to analyze the wide variety of policies (transportation, housing,
etc.) that affect the urban system requires integrated, comprehensive
models of transportation and land use.
INPUTS URBAN ACTIVITY SYSTEM TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM

Land Transportation
Development Network
Demographics

Location Automobile
Regional Choice Ownership
Economics

Activity Travel
Government Policies
Schedules Demand
• Infrastructure investment
• Pricing
• Regulatory
•…
Activity
Network Flows
Patterns
 Why build integrated models?
Integrated models provide the opportunity to consistently and comprehensively explore the
intended and unintended, interconnected consequences of transportation and land use polices
in complex urban regions, and to generate consistent forecasts of transportation conditions
and land use patterns.
 Dual role
 Consistency of Forecasts  Policy Analysis
 Land development
patterns
 Local demographics and
business/firmographics
 Travel patterns and
transportation system
performance
 Forecast detail
 Policies in one domain
(e.g. education) cause
problems/solution in
another (e.g.
transportation)
 Focus on goals (e.g.
quality of life, economic
performance) vs.
objectives (e.g. congestion
relief, budget reduction)
Policy Example 1: Major
roadway investment

What would be the impact of tearing down the

Gardiner Expressway? What if it wasn’t
replaced? What transit options might exist?
What would be the impact on population &
employment distributions? …
2040_A

2010 Target Year

evolve (Policy Option A)
Base branch
Year 2015 2040_B
and
Event evolve Target Year
Year (Policy Option B)
2040_C
Target Year
(Policy Option C)
 Example 2: Land Use Policy
What will be the impact of
the Greater Golden
Horseshoe (GGH) greenbelt
on:
• housing density & prices?
• employment concentration?
• economic performance?
• transit viability?
• congestion?
• emissions?
•…
 Example 3:
Transit
Infrastructure
Investment
Formal models are essential for
systematically and objectively
evaluating the transportation & • Ignoring land use impacts of
land use impacts of alternative major transit investments may
transit infrastructure investments. result in significantly
• Location underestimating investment
benefits.
• Technology
• Assuming transit friendly
• Network design development could overestimate
• Service characteristics benefits.
Example 4: Pricing Policy Impacts

Road pricing can potentially

influence trip-makers’ choice of:
• time of day
• destination
• route
• mode

It can also affect longer-term

location choices of households
and firms and the evolution of
the built urban form.
 Brief History of Integrated
Models
1960 First generation land use models are developed in US & UK to support
“golden age” of comprehensive, long range transportation modelling and
planning. Models are very aggregate, very cumbersome, not very policy
sensitive.
1970 First generation models largely fail due to limitations in computer
hardware/software, theory, data, etc.: Lee’s “Requiem for Large Scale
Models” (1973).
1980 Low-level R&D continues in US & UK. Discrete choice theory
developed & applied in travel & then location choice models. 2 nd
generation models emerge with some application (MEPLAN,
DRAM/EMPAL, etc.).
1990 Computer hardware & software improvements continue/accelerate.
2nd generation models in wider application in UK, Europe, South
America. 3rd generation models (more disaggregate, more policy
sensitive) emerge (MUSSA, UrbanSim, DELTA, etc.)
 Brief History, cont’d

2000 Rapid advances in technology, theory, methods and applications. Very

disaggregate/microsimulation “4th generation” models emerging and
entering application (UrbanSim, PECAS, DELTASim, ILUTE,
ILUMASS, …). Widespread adoption of integrated models in the US &
elsewhere. Widespread recognition of the need for such models, despite
their challenges.

2010 Refinement of theoretical approaches,

Focus on usability and direct applicability to planning process.
 Evolution of Frameworks
Lowry Leontief: Input- Random Utility Alonso/Mille/Muth: Microsimulation
1960 Gravity Model Output Model Theory Urban Economic
Bid-Rent Theory

Spatial Interaction
DRAM/EMPAL
HLFMII+
1970

Spatial Input-
1980 Output MEPLAN;
TRANUS Geographic
Information
Aggregate System
Equilibrium
1990 Discrete-Choice
METROSIM;
MUSSA Microsimulation
Dynamic
Discrete-Choice
Spatially Detailed
PECAS AA (UrbanSim, ILUTE)
2000 Rule-based Planning
Tools
Index; Places; What
PECAS SD If?

2010

After Waddell, P. (2011). http://tmip.fhwa.dot.gov/webinars/flua1