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EJERCICIO 1 EJERCICIO 2

Considere el ejercicio resuelto de la Práctica de Laboratorio Nro 4 PANCHITA


"Evaluación de un proyecto de inversión", rediseñe la plantilla excel Panchita desea poner una tien
de tal manera que se obtenga el VPN considerando también como de Arequipa. Ha desarrollado
aleatorias las siguientes variables: inicial deberá ser de S/. 6000.
Precio de venta: UNIF(30000,45000) dólares costos variables alcanzarán el
Costo de capital: NORM(9,2) % 14.00 por unidad. El impuesto
Costo Fijo: UNIF(15000,25000) dólares anual. Desafortunadamente P
Se pide: le sugiere que seguirá una NO
a) La tabla excel del flujo de efectivo. sabe que debe hacer una pequ
b) Una muestra de 250 resultados para el VPN. 600 unidades, el siguiente me
c) El histograma respectivo. mes, las veces que este sea ne
d) El reporte estadísco. Costo en s/. P
e) El análisis de los resultados en relación a la decisión de inversión. 500 0.40
800 0.35
1 000 0.25
Ciertamente ella cree que no s
Más aún, si sus ventas en un m
mes hizo publicidad el siguien
tiempo y sólo por un mes a un
mensuales. Desarrolle un anál
Mes 6) de operación del negoc
Anexo: a) Determine y comente el int
b) ¿Es significativa la probabil
JERCICIO 2 EJERCICIO 3

PANCHITA Ud. maneja el proyecto de un nuevo telé


Panchita desea poner una tienda de dulces en un importante centro comercial adicionar a la empresa IAQP una nueva l
de Arequipa. Ha desarrollado su plan de negocio y determinó que su inversión en marcha para el nuevo teléfono CHAR
inicial deberá ser de S/. 6000. Los costos fijos mensuales serán de S/. 1500 y los de automatización, capacitación de emp
costos variables alcanzarán el 55% de los ingresos. Planea vender los dulces a S/. El nuevo producto será vendido a un pre
14.00 por unidad. El impuesto a la renta es 30% y su costo de capital es 8% media de $40 y desviación estándar de $
anual. Desafortunadamente Panchita no está segura de la demanda. Su asesor estimados en $20000 al año, mientras q
uniforme entre 70% y 80% de los ingreso
le sugiere que seguirá una NORM(600,50) unidades-mensual. Adicionalmente contable sobre las nuevas instalaciones
sabe que debe hacer una pequeña publicidad. Si sus ventas son menores que $15000 por año durante los próximos 5
600 unidades, el siguiente mes hará esta campaña y únicamente por el siguiente salvamento. El CPPC (Costo promedio po
mes, las veces que este sea necesario, bajo la siguiente distribución: oportunidad) es de 14.5% y el impuesto
Costo en s/. Probabilidad Ante la incetidumbre de iniciar la produc
500 0.40 de la TIR para evaluar si implementa el p
800 0.35 el método de Montecarlo para tomar un
1 000 0.25 un escenario (2000 iteraciones). Para est
Ciertamente ella cree que no será necesario hacer publicidad el primer mes. a 15000 unidades por año. Se pide:
Más aún, si sus ventas en un mes dado son superiores a 600 unidades y en ese a) Calcular la TIR media de 700 iteracion
mes hizo publicidad el siguiente mes tendrá que contratar un asistente a medio b) Determine y comente el intervalo de
b) Cuál es el máximo TIR que se puede d
tiempo y sólo por un mes a un costo que fluctúa entre s/. 500 y s/. 700 c) inteprete los datos y sugiera una accio
mensuales. Desarrolle un análisis para los primeros 6 meses (Mes 0, Mes 1, …,
Mes 6) de operación del negocio y efectúe una simulación con 1000 ensayos.
a) Determine y comente el intervalo de confianza al 95% para el VPN.
b) ¿Es significativa la probabilidad de que pierda dinero en ese periodo?
EJERCICIO 4

l proyecto de un nuevo teléfono inteligente por lo que deberá


empresa IAQP una nueva línea de producción: Los costos de puesta
ra el nuevo teléfono CHARACAT S3 (que incluye compra de equipos
ación, capacitación de empleados, etc) están estimados en $200000.
ducto será vendido a un precio que se comporta de forma normal con
y desviación estándar de $15 por unidad. Los costos fijos están
$20000 al año, mientras que el costo variable tiene una distribución
re 70% y 80% de los ingresos totales de cada año. La vida útil
e las nuevas instalaciones será de 5 años y la depreciación de
ño durante los próximos 5 años. no se considera valor de
El CPPC (Costo promedio ponderado de capital o costo de
es de 14.5% y el impuesto a la renta es de 30%.
dumbre de iniciar la producción o no Ud. deberá utilizar el método
evaluar si implementa el proyecto o no, pero además deberá utilizar
Montecarlo para tomar una decisión más certera analizando más de
(2000 iteraciones). Para esto la demanda será uniforme entre 10000
ades por año. Se pide:
TIR media de 700 iteraciones.
y comente el intervalo de confianza al 95% para la TIR.
máximo TIR que se puede dar?
os datos y sugiera una accion a aseguir.
Problema nro 3
Datos
Costo variable
Costo de arranque $ 200,000 70-80% INGRESOS
Costo de capital
Precio de venta $ 40 14.50%
Tasa de Impuesto
Costo fijo $ 20,000 30%
Valor de rescate Equip.
Depreciación/Año 15000 0
Demanda/Año aleatoria

Año 0 1 2 3
Demanda 13466.0 1451.0 1162.0
Ingresos 538,640 58,040 46,480
Costo fijo 20,000 20,000 20,000
Costo variable 53,865 5,805 4,649
depreciacion 15,000 15,000 15,000

Gan. Antes Imp. 449,775 17,235 6,831


Impuesto 134,933 5,171 2,049
Gan. Despues Imp. 314,843 12,065 4,782
Flujo neto (200,000) 314,843 12,065 4,782

TIR 63%
a) Calcular la TIR media de 700 iteraciones.

1 62.92%

2 62.92%

3 62.92%
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4 5 6 62.92%
1138.0 1202.0 7 62.92%
45,520 48,080 8 62.92%
20,000 20,000 9 62.92%
4,553 4,809 10 62.92%
15,000 15,000 11 62.92%
12 62.92%
5,967 8,271 13 62.92%
1,790 2,481 14 62.92%
4,177 5,790 15 62.92%
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1905 62.92%
1906 62.92%
1907 62.92%
1908 62.92%
1909 62.92%
1910 62.92%
1911 62.92%
1912 62.92%
1913 62.92%
1914 62.92%
1915 62.92%
1916 62.92%
1917 62.92%
1918 62.92%
1919 62.92%
1920 62.92%
1921 62.92%
1922 62.92%
1923 62.92%
1924 62.92%
1925 62.92%
1926 62.92%
1927 62.92%
1928 62.92%
1929 62.92%
1930 62.92%
1931 62.92%
1932 62.92%
1933 62.92%
1934 62.92%
1935 62.92%
1936 62.92%
1937 62.92%
1938 62.92%
1939 62.92%
1940 62.92%
1941 62.92%
1942 62.92%
1943 62.92%
1944 62.92%
1945 62.92%
1946 62.92%
1947 62.92%
1948 62.92%
1949 62.92%
1950 62.92%
1951 62.92%
1952 62.92%
1953 62.92%
1954 62.92%
1955 62.92%
1956 62.92%
1957 62.92%
1958 62.92%
1959 62.92%
1960 62.92%
1961 62.92%
1962 62.92%
1963 62.92%
1964 62.92%
1965 62.92%
1966 62.92%
1967 62.92%
1968 62.92%
1969 62.92%
1970 62.92%
1971 62.92%
1972 62.92%
1973 62.92%
1974 62.92%
1975 62.92%
1976 62.92%
1977 62.92%
1978 62.92%
1979 62.92%
1980 62.92%
1981 62.92%
1982 62.92%
1983 62.92%
1984 62.92%
1985 62.92%
1986 62.92%
1987 62.92%
1988 62.92%
1989 62.92%
1990 62.92%
1991 62.92%
1992 62.92%
1993 62.92%
1994 62.92%
1995 62.92%
1996 62.92%
1997 62.92%
1998 62.92%
1999 62.92%
2000 62.92%
b) Determine y comente el intervalo de confianza al 95% para la TIR.

1 0.5706

TIR MEDIA : 62.92% 2 -0.0799

3 1.3987
4 0.3511
5 0.8761
6 -0.1848
7 0.0000
8 1.4815
9 0.6907
10 0.8060
11 0.6850
12 0.6666
13 0.0000
14 1.0386
15 0.0000
16 0.5147
17 0.8302
18 0.5034
19 0.6314
20 0.0000
21 0.4021
22 0.7414
23 0.4365
24 0.1104
25 0.7443
26 0.0000
27 0.3323
28 0.0000
29 0.8954
30 0.6815
31 0.9104
32 0.0000
33 -0.0929
34 0.0000
35 0.8545
36 0.4987
37 1.1818
38 1.1679
39 0.0000
40 0.3031
41 0.0027
42 0.0000
43 0.2433
44 0.0000
45 0.7146
46 0.7499
47 0.4258
48 0.8947
49 0.3631
50 0.0000
51 0.0000
52 -0.0901
53 0.1490
54 0.1725
55 1.1357
56 1.4233
57 0.1576
58 0.9418
59 -0.1173
60 0.0000
61 0.5710
62 0.6845
63 1.2373
64 1.2525
65 0.0000
66 0.3886
67 0.0000
68 0.6627
69 0.0000
70 0.0000
71 1.2720
72 0.5176
73 0.1099
74 0.0000
75 0.0000
76 0.0000
77 1.1978
78 1.8779
79 1.3887
80 -0.1063
81 0.4009
82 -0.0256
83 0.3962
84 0.2173
85 -0.0097
86 0.5192
87 0.8931
88 1.0316
89 0.3071
90 0.8285
91 0.0000
92 0.7817
93 0.7259
94 0.6954
95 1.8835
96 0.4568
97 0.1478
98 0.3935
99 0.5748
100 0.7457
101 0.7462
102 1.3573
103 1.0063
104 1.3205
105 0.0000
106 0.0000
107 0.1753
108 0.7437
109 -0.0259
110 0.7907
111 0.0000
112 0.2084
113 0.0000
114 0.5053
115 0.0000
116 0.1026
117 0.7649
118 0.0097
119 0.9432
120 0.7012
121 0.0000
122 0.0000
123 1.6823
124 2.0494
125 0.2042
126 1.7935
127 0.0000
128 0.0000
129 0.0000
130 0.6568
131 1.3679
132 2.3369
133 0.5383
134 0.8353
135 0.2273
136 0.0166
137 -0.2951
138 0.0055
139 1.5029
140 0.5247
141 -0.2297
142 1.2025
143 0.5768
144 1.1564
145 0.2693
146 1.0083
147 0.0000
148 1.5329
149 0.1135
150 0.5380
151 0.0000
152 -0.1260
153 0.6575
154 1.0000
155 0.0000
156 0.1709
157 -0.1416
158 0.8188
159 1.0756
160 0.5093
161 0.0679
162 1.2100
163 0.7497
164 0.3845
165 0.0000
166 1.8010
167 2.0454
168 1.2985
169 0.1654
170 0.7132
171 1.5513
172 0.0000
173 1.5195
174 1.3826
175 0.7501
176 0.2566
177 1.1230
178 0.6853
179 1.2822
180 0.3330
181 0.0000
182 0.3209
183 -0.2834
184 0.9025
185 1.0273
186 0.0294
187 0.0736
188 1.8270
189 0.5089
190 -0.1481
191 0.0000
192 2.2973
193 0.0000
194 0.5284
195 0.4211
196 0.1777
197 0.1166
198 -0.0077
199 1.0847
200 0.8191
201 0.9418
202 0.9830
203 0.7589
204 0.0000
205 1.4923
206 1.4591
207 1.7924
208 1.5081
209 0.0000
210 0.0000
211 0.5147
212 0.0000
213 1.1179
214 0.3934
215 0.2008
216 0.2194
217 0.0629
218 0.0678
219 0.1129
220 1.2135
221 1.3489
222 0.5235
223 0.0423
224 0.4148
225 1.2807
226 1.1479
227 0.0000
228 0.3519
229 0.4480
230 2.1439
231 0.8382
232 0.5315
233 0.9074
234 0.0000
235 0.0000
236 0.8994
237 0.8374
238 0.4023
239 1.5593
240 0.0000
241 0.7213
242 0.0624
243 0.3205
244 0.2981
245 1.5920
246 0.0868
247 0.0477
248 0.2626
249 -0.2951
250 0.0697
251 0.1057
252 0.3240
253 0.0000
254 2.4160
255 0.3401
256 0.6460
257 0.4920
258 1.2519
259 -0.1352
260 0.2452
261 0.0000
262 0.0000
263 0.9191
264 0.0000
265 0.6670
266 0.0010
267 0.6638
268 1.7396
269 0.9294
270 0.9720
271 0.0000
272 0.4876
273 0.2971
274 0.8082
275 0.0000
276 0.0000
277 0.0000
278 0.0000
279 1.1024
280 0.0000
281 0.2018
282 0.0000
283 0.8457
284 0.0000
285 0.7270
286 0.1115
287 0.4301
288 0.8652
289 0.0000
290 0.4742
291 1.3656
292 0.0000
293 0.0000
294 0.3076
295 0.1728
296 0.8956
297 0.7389
298 0.9793
299 1.3937
300 0.9674
301 0.5895
302 0.0741
303 0.0621
304 0.6127
305 0.8483
306 1.0029
307 0.5188
308 0.1312
309 0.3411
310 0.0000
311 1.5195
312 0.7272
313 1.4715
314 1.9223
315 0.3095
316 0.3344
317 0.2657
318 1.1715
319 1.7068
320 0.0156
321 0.7487
322 0.3331
323 0.3896
324 1.2482
325 0.8079
326 0.0000
327 0.8375
328 0.0526
329 0.0000
330 0.9291
331 0.0000
332 0.0000
333 0.0941
334 1.6552
335 0.0000
336 0.6271
337 1.0186
338 0.4817
339 0.0000
340 1.3490
341 0.3864
342 0.3157
343 0.2275
344 1.1380
345 0.0000
346 1.4937
347 0.5290
348 1.0873
349 0.7802
350 1.0750
351 1.0898
352 -0.0829
353 1.3316
354 0.3179
355 -0.1069
356 -0.1779
357 1.2505
358 1.5804
359 0.8660
360 0.0000
361 0.5403
362 0.7516
363 0.7841
364 0.0772
365 0.0000
366 0.0000
367 0.4851
368 0.4882
369 1.2049
370 0.9672
371 0.1628
372 0.0000
373 0.6707
374 0.6441
375 0.3953
376 1.4681
377 0.9873
378 0.7623
379 0.3791
380 0.0000
381 0.0000
382 0.8843
383 0.1859
384 0.4211
385 0.6970
386 0.0455
387 1.4970
388 -0.2570
389 1.7377
390 0.0110
391 0.4167
392 0.1467
393 0.0879
394 1.5830
395 0.1738
396 0.6424
397 0.0000
398 0.0000
399 1.8053
400 0.3870
401 0.0000
402 0.7985
403 0.0000
404 0.9598
405 0.6331
406 0.7301
407 0.7780
408 0.9098
409 0.1923
410 1.5437
411 0.0000
412 0.7617
413 0.0000
414 0.5392
415 0.5609
416 -0.3248
417 1.0809
418 0.4649
419 1.3721
420 0.1876
421 0.4372
422 2.7548
423 0.6611
424 0.3528
425 0.8222
426 0.0000
427 0.2583
428 0.6629
429 0.0000
430 0.8920
431 1.3816
432 2.2140
433 0.4853
434 1.1514
435 0.9561
436 0.0000
437 0.0000
438 1.0906
439 0.9398
440 0.0255
441 0.0000
442 1.1197
443 0.7521
444 0.1856
445 1.1294
446 1.3346
447 0.9289
448 0.6439
449 0.6698
450 0.5459
451 0.0000
452 0.4369
453 1.1634
454 0.5722
455 -0.0225
456 0.7359
457 0.1797
458 0.0000
459 0.0000
460 0.1677
461 0.5177
462 0.2433
463 0.8592
464 0.8377
465 0.3325
466 0.3393
467 1.6454
468 0.4466
469 0.6183
470 0.6377
471 1.6344
472 -0.2898
473 1.9324
474 0.0128
475 0.0000
476 0.4081
477 0.7037
478 1.1027
479 1.4240
480 0.5124
481 0.4931
482 0.9737
483 1.1355
484 1.1212
485 0.0284
486 0.0000
487 0.0000
488 0.8005
489 0.6598
490 1.7251
491 0.4542
492 0.4493
493 1.2714
494 0.0028
495 0.1844
496 -0.1507
497 0.0330
498 0.6106
499 2.5720
500 1.6338
501 0.5318
502 0.4460
503 0.4165
504 0.4609
505 1.7239
506 0.0000
507 0.8597
508 0.0000
509 0.0000
510 1.6981
511 0.0000
512 0.6965
513 0.9372
514 1.2004
515 0.9811
516 0.2491
517 0.8293
518 1.0052
519 0.0821
520 2.3807
521 0.8655
522 0.4151
523 0.5505
524 1.1014
525 0.1325
526 1.7012
527 0.5562
528 1.5449
529 0.1443
530 0.0000
531 0.0000
532 0.9753
533 -0.0884
534 0.2697
535 0.0000
536 1.4221
537 1.6771
538 1.1166
539 0.2961
540 0.1152
541 0.1546
542 0.7287
543 0.5917
544 0.5358
545 1.6130
546 1.5874
547 0.0000
548 -0.0110
549 1.0810
550 1.4857
551 0.6525
552 0.6799
553 1.1842
554 0.6679
555 0.0000
556 0.4682
557 1.3182
558 1.0794
559 -0.1051
560 0.9504
561 0.4045
562 0.4306
563 1.0616
564 0.7956
565 0.3123
566 0.6739
567 0.6995
568 0.1523
569 0.0000
570 -0.2003
571 1.2232
572 1.0962
573 0.0000
574 0.5409
575 0.0000
576 1.1152
577 -0.1818
578 1.6147
579 1.2600
580 0.5202
581 3.1144
582 1.1057
583 0.0777
584 0.4811
585 1.0231
586 0.7420
587 0.9133
588 1.4968
589 1.8343
590 0.0000
591 0.0000
592 0.0000
593 1.0266
594 0.0000
595 0.3499
596 0.0000
597 0.0000
598 1.2702
599 1.5892
600 0.0000
601 0.4852
602 0.4477
603 0.0000
604 0.0070
605 1.8735
606 1.9694
607 0.1240
608 0.6188
609 0.2726
610 0.0000
611 0.0000
612 0.0000
613 0.6729
614 0.7132
615 2.0494
616 1.0088
617 0.6025
618 1.3930
619 0.0239
620 2.4289
621 0.0233
622 0.4877
623 0.3478
624 1.2973
625 0.8779
626 1.1836
627 0.0000
628 -0.1313
629 0.0000
630 0.0000
631 0.1283
632 0.5673
633 0.1158
634 0.6544
635 0.3633
636 1.0694
637 0.0000
638 1.3304
639 0.0454
640 0.5494
641 0.3673
642 0.1099
643 0.5908
644 1.4852
645 1.3588
646 0.0000
647 0.9907
648 1.3495
649 0.0213
650 0.3579
651 -0.0998
652 0.0000
653 0.0463
654 0.6683
655 0.6160
656 0.8782
657 -0.0681
658 0.3982
659 0.9237
660 1.0550
661 1.2779
662 0.9666
663 0.0000
664 0.0000
665 0.0479
666 0.0000
667 0.2447
668 0.7380
669 0.4101
670 0.0190
671 1.1293
672 3.1952
673 0.2379
674 0.8601
675 0.8521
676 0.6751
677 0.8385
678 0.5387
679 0.8707
680 0.0000
681 0.7463
682 0.2215
683 0.2021
684 0.2998
685 0.6622
686 0.4964
687 0.7965
688 0.3116
689 0.0507
690 0.4694
691 0.5142
692 0.2436
693 0.0000
694 0.3046
695 0.2480
696 0.0000
697 0.0000
698 1.5674
699 0.4275
700 0.4546
el intervalo de confianza al 95% para la TIR.

Columna2

Media 0.58691267
Error típico 0.02216482
Mediana 0.49008774
Moda 0
Desviación estándar 0.58642611
Varianza de la muestra 0.34389559
Curtosis 0.9278244
Coeficiente de asimetría 0.97600692
Rango 3.52000745
Mínimo -0.324761
Máximo 3.19524647
Suma 410.838868
Cuenta 700
Nivel de confianza(95.0%) 0.04351761
Recuerde: para P(z=1.96) =95%
Limite Inferior = 0.543
Limite Superior = 3.253

ANALISIS DE RESULTADOS:
1.- Se han tomado 100 muestras y su distribución se puede aproximar a una normal.
2.- El valor medio de la TIR en la muestra es 0.587
3.- La desviación estándar en la muestra es 0.586
4.- El intervalo de confianza al 95% es Limite Inferio 0.543
Limite Superi 3.253
Significa que el 95 % de los resultados posibles la TIR se encontrará en este intervalo.
5.- En el modelo base la recomendación habría sido directa por la inversión ya que encontramos una TIR esperado
de aprox. 0.58. Sin embargo a la luz de la simulación, esta situación cambia de manera importante.
c) Cuál es el máximo TIR que se puede dar? d) inteprete los datos y sugie

EL MAXIMO VALOR DE LA TIR QUE SE PUEDE Como el valo


DAR ES DE 3.253 TAL COMO LO MUESTRA EL interna de re
ANALISIS DESCRIPTIVO. teniendo en
minimo es d
maximo de 3
dicho valor e
interes(costo
Clase Frecuencia vuelve renta
-0.324761 1 cierre ,se deb
26.6108067 725 proyecto sin
53.5463745 27
haber evalua
80.4819422 27
metodos( VA
107.41751 27
134.353078 27
comparacion
161.288645 27
de un proyec
188.224213 27
215.159781 27
242.095349 27
269.030916 27
295.966484 26
322.902052 27
349.83762 27
376.773187 27
403.708755 27
430.644323 27
457.57989 27
484.515458 27
511.451026 27
538.386594 27
565.322161 27
592.257729 27
619.193297 27
646.128865 27
673.064432 27
mos una TIR esperado y mayor... 27
mportante.

Histograma
800
600
400
200
Frecuencia

0
3 1 5 9 3 7 1 5 9 4 8 2 6 ... Frecuencia
9 85 475 935 395 856 316 777 237 697 158 618 079 539 ayor
0 4 9 5 0 6 1 7 2 8 3 9 4
4 7 6 63 7 7 50 8 64 9 78 09 1 20 5 3 18 4 32 5 45 65 9 7 72 8 86 y m
2 4 1 8 5 3 0 7 4 1 8 5 2
.3 .5 .4 .2 .1 .0 .9 .7 .6 .5 .3 .2 .1
-0 53 07 61 15 69 22 76 30 84 38 92 46
1 1 2 2 3 3 Clase 4 4 5 5 6
) inteprete los datos y sugiera una accion a aseguir.

Como el valor de la TIR (tasa


interna de retorno) es de 0.58 y
teniendo en cuenta que su valor
minimo es de 0.544 y un valor
maximo de 3.253 ,por tanto
dicho valor es mayor que el
interes(costo de capital) ,esto lo
vuelve rentable al proyecto ,en
cierre ,se debe aprobar el
proyecto sin antes tambien
haber evaluado con los otros
metodos( VAN ,B/C) de
comparacion para la viavilidad
de un proyecto.

otros calculos:
VAN S/.92,732.13
B/C 1.711
TIR 0.587