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1 : INTRODUCTION
The market for long term securities like bonds, equity stocks and preferred
stocks is divided into primary market and secondary market. Primary
market deals with the new issues of securities. Outstanding securities are
traded in the secondary market, which is commonly known as stock market
or stock exchange. In the secondary market, the investors can sell or buy
securities. Stock markets predominantly deal in the equity shares. Well
regulated and active stock market promotes capital formation. The health of
the economy is reflected by the growth of the stock market. Stock broking is
a growing industry in India. The main reason is that Indian economy is one
of the strongest in the world. As a result of that both foreign and domestic
investors are interested in investing in Indian stock market.
The topic selected for the study is “Security Analysis of selected power
sector securities listed in Bombay Stock Exchange” with reference to
Motilal Oswal securities Ltd, Mumbai.
The study is done for the purpose of conducting fundamental analysis and
technical analysis of leading securities in the stock market. In the stock
market share price of companies are determined by the demand and supply
forces operating in the market. These demand and supply forces in turn are
influenced by a number of fundamental factors as well as certain
psychological or emotional factors. The combined impact of all these
factors is reflected in the share price movement. The price movements of
securities follow systematic and certain consistent patterns. Past movements
in the prices of shares help to identify trends and pattern. It is useful for the
prediction of future price movements. The companies selected are NTPC,
RELIANCE, POWERGRID, NHPC, TATAPOWER and ADANI POWER.
Security analysis
Investors can use both these different but somewhat complementary methods
for stock picking. Many fundamental investors use techniques for deciding
entry and exit points. Many technical investors use fundamentals to limit their
universe of possible stock to 'good' companies
Fundamental analysis
objectives:
! To conduct a company stock valuation and predict its probable price
evolution,
In this section the various stock exchanges have been compared on the
following parameters;
1. Market Capitalization
3. listing agreements
4. circuit filters
5. settlement
Market Capitalization
Listed Securities
Listing in a stock exchange refers to the admission of the securities of the
company for trade dealings in a recognized stock exchange. The securities may
be of any public limited company, Central or State Government, quasi-
governmental and other financial institutions/corporations, municipalities, etc.
Securities of any company are listed in a stock exchange to provide liquidity to
the securities, to mobilize savings and to protect the interests of the investors.
India has the highest number of companies listed in the stock market. Out of
this, about 75 % of the companies are listed with the Bombay Stock Exchange.
After India, United States has the highest number of companies listed.
Paid Up capital: Not less than 10 Crores Market Capitalization: Not less than
25 Crores At least three years track record:
• The company has not been referred to the Board for Industrial and Financial
Reconstruction (BIFR).
• The networth of the company has not been wiped out by the accumulated
losses resulting in a negative networth.
• The company has not received any winding up petition accepted by a court.
BSE
Scrip wise Price Bands
1. For scrips (53 scrips) on which derivative products are available and
scrips which are included in indices on which derivative products are
available, there is no circuit filter. However, the Exchange has imposed
dummy circuit fitters on these scrips to avoid punching error, if any.
2. Other Scrips which are not included in above-mentioned category have a
circuit filter limit of 20%.
Market Wide Circuit Breakers
In addition to the above-stated price bands on individual scrips, SEBI has
decided to implement index based market wide circuit breakers system
with effect from July 02, 2001.The circuit breakers are applicable at three
stages of the index movement either way at 10%, 15% and 20%. These
circuit breakers will bring about a coordinated trading halt in both Equity
and Derivative market.
The market wide circuit breakers can be triggered by movement of either
BSE SENSEX or the NSE NIFTY, whichever is breached earlier. The
percentage movements are calculated on the closing index value of the
quarter. These percentages are translated into absolute points of index
variation (rounded off to the nearest 25 points in case of SENSEX). At the
end of each quarter, these absolute points of index variations are revised
and made applicable for the next quarter. The absolute points of SENSEX
variation triggering market wide circuit breaker for a
INDUSTRY PROFILE
Capital Market
The market where investment funds like bonds, equities and
mortgages are traded is known as the capital market. The primal role of the
capital market is to channelize investments from investors who have surplus
funds to the ones who are running a deficit. The capital market offers both
long term and overnight funds. The financial instruments that have short or
medium term maturity periods are dealt in the money market whereas the
financial instruments that have long maturity periods are dealt in the capital
market. The different types of financial instruments that are traded in the
capital markets are equity instruments, credit market instruments, insurance
instruments, foreign exchange instruments, hybrid instruments and
derivative instruments.
A capital market is a market for securities (both debt and equity),
where business enterprises (companies) and governments can raise long-
term funds. It is defined as a market in which money is lent for periods
longer than a year, as the raising of short-term funds takes place on other
markets (e.g., the money market). The capital market includes the stock
market (equity securities) and the bond market (debt).
1 Primary market
2 Secondary markets
Primary market
The primary market is that part of the capital markets that deals with the
issuance of new securities. Companies, governments or public sector
institutions can obtain funding through the sale of a new stock or bond
issue. This is typically done through a syndicate of securities dealers. The
process of selling new issues to investors is called underwriting. In the
case of a new stock issue, this sale is an initial public offering (IPO).
Dealers earn a commission that is built into the price of the security
offering, though it can be found in the prospectus.
The primary markets are where new stock and bonds issues are sold (via
underwriting) to investors. The secondary markets are where existing
securities are sold and bought from one investor or trader to another,
usually on a securities exchange, over the counter, or elsewhere.
o This is the market for new long term equity capital. The primary
market is the market where the securities are sold for the first time.
Therefore it is also called the new issue market (NIM).
o The new issue market does not include certain other sources of new
long term external finance, such as loans from financial institutions.
Borrowers in the new issue market may be raising capital for
converting private capital into public capital; this is known as "going
public."
o The financial assets sold can only be redeemed by the original holder.
Secondary market
After the initial issuance, investors can purchase from other investors in the
secondary market.The secondary market for a variety of assets can vary from
fragmented to centralized, and from illiquid to very liquid. The major stock
exchanges are the most visible example of liquid secondary markets - in this
case, for stocks of publicly traded companies. . Exchanges provide a
centralized, liquid secondary market for the investors who own stocks that
trade on those exchanges. Most bonds and structured products trade “over the
counter,” or by phoning the bond desk of one’s broker-dealer.
Stock Exchanges
Stock exchanges are open markets that trade financial assets. Whether
associated with a company or acting as an individual, a stock exchange is
the place where stocks are bought and sold. There are a number of major
stock exchanges around the world and each of these plays a part in
determining the overall financial and economic condition of any
economy. Stock exchanges deal with a number of financial instruments
such as stocks, bonds and equities. Both corporate and government bonds
are traded in stock exchanges. Equities include popular investment
options, rights issues, bonus issues, and all other forms of shares and
stocks. The actual trading of stocks takes place through mediators such as
financial advisors, brokerage houses, and stockbrokers A stock exchange,
(formerly a securities exchange) is a corporation or mutual organization
which provides "trading" facilities for stock brokers and traders, to trade
stocks and other securities. Stock exchanges also provide facilities for the
issue and redemption of securities as well as other financial instruments
and capital events including the payment of income and dividends. The
securities traded on a stock exchange include: shares issued by
companies, unit trusts, derivatives, pooled investment products and
bonds. To be able to trade a security on a certain stock exchange, it has to
be listed there. Usually there is a central location at least for
recordkeeping, but trade is less and less linked to such a physical place, as
modern markets are electronic networks, which gives them advantages of
speed and cost of transactions. Trade on an exchange is by members only.
The initial offering of stocks and bonds to investors is by definition done
in the primary market and subsequent trading is done in the secondary
market. A stock exchange is often the most important component of a
stock market. Supply and demand in stock markets are driven by various
factors which, as in all free markets, affect the price of stocks (see stock
valuation).
The stocks are listed and traded on stock exchanges which are entities of
a corporation or mutual organization specialized in the business of
bringing buyers and sellers of the organizations to a listing of stocks and
securities together
! Execution-only, which means that the broker will only carry out the
client's instructions to buy or sell.
! Advisory dealing, where the broker advises the client on which shares
to buy and sell, but leaves the final decision to the investor.
Mission of company
To be the most respected and preferred private equity manager in the mid
size corporate segment
! Equity
In keeping with its tradition of personalized service, Motilal Oswal
Securities Limited provides Customized Equity Advisory Group to clients
based on their profile. Equity Research is an inherent strength of MOSt.
Converting that research to advice is the main function of Equity Advisory.
The investment ideas identified by the research team are presented and
communicated with conviction to clients by advisory team. MOSt Equity
Advisor proactively helps you take informed equity investment decisions
and build a healthy portfolio giving the best fit to your investment and
trading needs.
! Derivatives
Futures & options are derivatives, which use equity as their
underlying. Hence Equity Advisory Group (EAG) will also act as advisors
for F&O & help take informed decisions while trading in these derivative
instruments. Since derivatives instrument provide good leverage
opportunity, it is a great tool for speculation. Leverage is a double edge
sword for which one requires an equity advisor. The advisors will also help
with various strategies like Bull Spread, Bear Spread, Cover call writing,
hedging strategies etc. This is to help to make better trading returns.
Portfolio management
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd brings with more than 2 decades of
experience & expertise in equity research and stock broking. Motilal Oswal
Securities Ltd is one of the leading portfolio service providers, with asset
under management worth Rs. 590 Crores.
! Online trading
Clients trade online through “MyBroker platform”. Broker with
complete research support from MOSL which helps the clients to make
right decision at right time. They can choose trading a/c which suits their
trading habit’s & preference and trade anywhere, anytime. Buying and
selling is as easy as click of a button.
Key Features:
! Single platform for multiple exchange BSE & NSE (Cash & F&O),
Mutual Funds & IPO.
! Tick by tick market watch (BSE / NSE / F&O).
! Single window Order placement with instant confirmation.
! Instant funds transfer from any of our 19 listed banks.
! After Market Order (AMO) can place orders in advance before market
opens.
! Call and trade facility.
! Mutual funds
Mutual funds offer the ideal platform to participate in the Equity &
Debt market indirectly through professional management. Mutual funds are
becoming the most popular investment vehicles offering various kinds of
schemes with different investment objectives
! Commodities
Over the years commodities markets have been experiencing
tremendous progress, which is evident from the fact that the trade in this
segment is standing as the boon for the global economy today. The
promising nature of these markets has made them an attractive investment
avenue for investors.
! Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)
Book Building and Fixed Price Issue are the two types of Initial Public
Offerings (IPOs) through which a public company can raise money in the
capital market.In a book building public issue the bids are received at
different price levels and the demand for the issue is built up over a period
of time.
! Motilal Oswal Depository Services (MODES)
Today MODES is available at all business locations of Motilal Oswal.
In terms of number of accounts MODES is the second biggest Depository
Participant in CDSL with over 150,000 accounts. Holder of a MODES
account get recommendations on their holdings based on Motilal Oswal
Research rated the "Most Independent Research - Local Brokerage" by Asia
Money Brokers Poll 2006.
! Marginal funding
Motilal Oswal Financial Services understand needs and help the
trader to meet their liquidity requirements. Company offer Margin
funding to individuals and corporate. Company provide finance for
investment in primary market issues and also possess expertise in
financing for short-term requirements, to buy securities from
secondary markets.
CHAPTER NO. 2 : RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
1.3.4 LIMITATIONS
Reasearch Type
The segment identified for conducting the study is power Sector in India.
The number of companies selected for the study is Seven. Analytical study
is used to conduct the study.
Aber John(1976) in his study found that numerous empirical studies have
tested the profitability of technical trading rules in a variety of markets for
the purpose of either uncovering profitable trading rules or testing market
efficiency, or both. The technical trading studies simulated only one or two
trading systems. In these studies, although transaction costs were deducted
to compute net returns of technical trading strategies, risk was not
adequately handled, statistical tests of trading profits and data snooping
problems were often disregarded, and out-of-sample verification along with
parameter (trading rule) optimization were not considered in the testing
procedure.
Goodman and John W Peavy (1983) in their study found that there is no
way of making an expected profit by extrapolating past changes in the
futures price, by chart or any other esoteric devices of magic or
mathematics. The market quotation already contains in itself all that can be
known about the future and in that
sense has discounted future contingencies as much as is humanly possible.
Edward (1992) found that also extends her test to include a “valuation link”
between the predicted future earnings changes and stock returns during the
annual report dissemination period. She finds evidence that this valuation
link does exist. The non-earnings accounting numbers are therefore useful
for predicting both future earnings and returns.
Hackel and Kenneth S (1996)found that it has been stated that “the task of
research is to discover what information projects future earnings and, from a
financial statement analysis point of view, what information in the financial
statements does this”
Palepu and Krishna (2004) found that technical analysis has been
extensively used among market participants such as brokers, dealers, fund
managers, speculators, and individual investors in the financial industry. 3
Numerous surveys indicate that practitioners attribute a significant role to
technical analysis. For example, futures fund managers rely heavily on
computer-guided technical trading systems, and about 30% to 40% of
foreign exchange traders around the world believe that technical analysis is
the major factor determining exchange rates in the short-run up to six
months.
Dhanesh Kumar Khatri (2006) in their article found that a leading technical
analyst, provides a more specific definition: “The technical approach to
investment is essentially a reflection of the idea that prices move in trends
that are determined by the changing attitudes of investors toward a variety
of economic, monetary, political, and psychological forces. The art of
technical analysis, for it is an art, is to identify a trend reversal at a
relatively early stage and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence
shows or proves that the trend has reversed.”
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 13701
52 week high 70
52 week low 36
attempt to test visual chart patterns using pattern recognition algorithms. A
technical trading system consists of a set of trading rules that result from
parameterizations, and each trading rule generates trading signals (long,
short, or out of market) according to their parameter values. Several popular
technical trading systems are moving averages, channels, and momentum
oscillators.
PRESENTATION
ADANI POWER
Table No:4.1.1
Share Price details of Adani Power
for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 13701
52 week high 70
52 week low 36
Interpretation:
The face value of Adani Power is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs
13701 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 70 and the low for the same is Rs 36.
Table No:4.1.2
Pay Out Ratio of Adani Power
for the year ended 2011-2012
EPS(Earning per share) 0
Dividend yield % 0
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of Adani Power is ‘0’, their dividend yield ratio is also ‘0’.
Interpretation:
The net worth of Adani Power is Rs.6029. their profit after tax is -294 and their
return on net worth is -6.35.
Interpretation :
The current ratio of Adani Power is .23 and their debt equity ratio is 3.59. the
gross profit ratio is 38.68 percentage and net profit ratio is -9.93 percentage. Their
interest coverage ratio is nil.
Chart No 4.1.1
Line Chart of ADANI POWER
Interpretation:
The share price of Adani power is 50 at the beginning of the study. After that price
move upto 68. The share price now showing bullish trend after the fall from 68 to
40. The upward trend is a good signal to investors
Chart No 4.1.2
Candlestick Chart of ADANI POWER
Interpretation:
The chart shows a positive trend of share price of ADANI POWER after the early
fall of share price during the period of study. The share price of Adani power is 50
at the beginning of the study. After that price move upto 68.
Chart No 4.1.3
Moving Average Chart of ADANI POWER
Interpretation:
5 day moving average of ADANI POWER cut the 50 day moving average twice
during the study period and maintains the critical level. Now it is above the support
line. ADANI POWER shows a positive trend in its share price.
Chart No 4.1.4
RSI Chart of ADANI POWER
Interpretation:
RSI chart of ADANI POWER shows the bullish buying trend of the stock. Stock is
near to the RSI point 70 . it shows the strength of the stock. This stock touch the
70 level twice during the period of study.
RELIANCE POWER
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 21164
52 week high 111
52 week low 58
Interpretation:
The face value of Reliance Power is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs
21164 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 111and the low for the same is Rs
58.
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of Reliance Power is .38, their dividend yield ratio is also
‘0’.
Interpretation:
The net worth of Reliance Power is Rs.16103. Their profit after tax is 310 and their
return on net worth is .85
Interpretation :
The current ratio of Reliance Power is 45.26 and their debt equity ratio is 0.05.
The gross profit ratio is 300.62 percentage and net profit ratio is 204.80
percentage. Their interest coverage ratio is 3.25.
Chart No 4.2.1
Line Chart of RELIANCE POWER
Interpretation:
The reliance power stock shows bearish trend in the early stage of study. Now the
movement of stock price shows a recovery trend. Share price of RELIANCE
POWER is 100 at the beginning of the study. After that price down upto 60 level.
Now the stock shows recovery trend from the massive fall.
Chart No 4.2.2
Candlestick Chart of RELIANCE POWER
Interpretation:
The reliance power stock shows down trend in the early stage of study. The stock
price fall from 101 to 60 during the period of study. Now the stock is in recovery
trend.
Chart No 4.2.3
Moving Average Chart of RELIANCE POWER
Interpretation:
Reliance power stock shows negative trend in the early stage. The share price
break 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE only once during the period of study.Now the
stock price is above the 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE. It shows positive trend in
the end of study period.
Chart No 4.2.4
RSI Chart of RELIANCE POWER
Interpretation:
RSI chart of Reliance power shows the bullish buying trend . The Stock now
move to the RSI point of 70 . it shows the buying trend of the stok. The stock
down upto 60 point level twice during the period of study.
TATA POWER
Face value 1
Market capitalization (Cr) 21583
52 week high 113
52 week low 87
Interpretation:
The face value of Tata Power is Rs 1 each. Their market capitalization is Rs 21583
cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 113and the low for the same is Rs 87.
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of Tata Power is 3.97, their dividend yield ratio is also
1.37.
Table No: 4.3.3
Return on Equity of Tata Power
for the year ended 2011-2012
Interpretation:
The net worth of Tata Power is Rs.11957. Their profit after tax is 1169 and their
return on net worth is 10.09 percentage.
Interpretation :
The current ratio of Tata Power is 0.95 and their debt equity ratio is 0.64. The
gross profit ratio is 32.27 percentage and net profit ratio is 13.64 percentage. Their
interest coverage ratio is 4.27.
Chart No 4.3.1
Line Chart of TATA POWER
!
Interpretation:
Tata power stock shows bearish trend in its share price. The stock shows a massive
fall in its share price from 112 to 92 during the study period. First half of study
period the stock shows a positive trend. After that the stock fall upto 90 level. Now
stock trading at the maximum low level.
Chart No 4.3.2
Candlestick chart of TATA POWER
Interpretation:
First half of study period the stock shows a positive trend. After that the stock fall
upto 90 level. Now stock trading at the maximum low level.Tata power stock
shows bearish trend in its share price. The stock shows a massive fall in its share
price from 112 to 92 during the study period.
Chart No 4.3.3
Moving Average Chart of TATA POWER
Interpretation:
5 day moving average of Tata power is below the 50 day moving average line. The
price of this stock is below the support price .The stock price will show a good
trend only after it resist the 50 day moving average line.
Chart No 4.3.4
RSI Chart of TATA POWER
Interpretation:
RSI of TATA POWER is 40 in the last period of study ,it shows the bearish selling
trend of stock. The chart shows negative trend of stock price during the period of
study. The stock only cut 70 point level once during the period of study.
CESC
Table No 4.4.1
Share Price details of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 4202
52 week high 345
52 week low 252
Interpretation:
The face value of CESC is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs 4202 cr.
The highest value for 345 week is Rs 252 and the low for the same is Rs 58.
Table No 4.4.2
Pay Out Ratio of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of CESC is 49.46, their dividend yield ratio is also 1.48
percentage.
Table No 4.4.3
Return on Equity of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
Interpretation:
The net worth of CESC is Rs.6011. Their profit after tax is 554 and their return on
net worth is 12.10
Table No 4.4.4
Key Ratios of CESC for the year ended 2011-2012
Chart No 4.4.1
Line Chart of CESC
Interpretation:
CESC stock shows bullish trend in its share price. The chart shows the strength of
the stock in its share price. The CESC stock now trading at 330 level after the
recovery from 270.
Chart No 4.4.2
Interpretation:
The chart shows the trend of share price CESC. In the last stage, the stock shows
possative trend in its price. Now the stock trading at the maximum level.
Chart No 4.4.3
Moving Average Chart of CESC
Interpretation:
Share price of CESC once cut the support and it lead to a fall in its price. The
support prices for the stock are 315 and 288. Now the share price is above the 50
day moving average line. The stock shows bullish trend in its price.
Chart No 4.4.4
RSI Chart of CESC
Interpretation:
RSI of CESC shows positive buying trend of stock. RSI of stock is now above the
70 level, shows the bullish trend in the stock price. The company only reached 30
point level twice during the period of study.
NHPC
Table No 4.5.1
Share Price details of NHPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 24601
52 week high 29
52 week low 14
Interpretation:
The face value of NHPC is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs 24601 cr.
The highest value for 52 week is Rs 29 and the low for the same is Rs 14.
Table No 4.5.2
Pay Out Ratio of NHPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of NHPC is 2.09, their dividend yield ratio is also 3.50.
Table No 4.5.3
Return on Equity of NHPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Interpretation:
The net worth of NHPC is Rs.26353. Their profit after tax is 2771 and their return
on net worth is 10.88
Table No 4.5.4
Key Ratios of NHPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Chart No 4.5.1
Line Chart of NHPC
Interpretation:
During the period of study, the share price trend is downward. The share price falls
from 29 to 18. The first half of the study the stock price shows upward trend after
share price reached Rs 30, the share price down sharply upto Rs 20. Now the stock
trading at Rs 20.
Chart No 4.5.2
Candlestick Chart of NHPC
Interpretation
The chart shows the bearish movement of stock during the period of study. The
first half of the study the stock price shows upward trend after share price reached
Rs 30, the share price down sharply upto Rs 20.
Chart No 4.5.3
Moving Average Chart of NHPC
Interpretation:
The chart shows the bearish trend of NHPC stock. The stock now moves below the
50 Day Moving average. The massive fall of share price from 29 to 18 can’t
recover in short time.
Chart No 4.5.4
RSI Chart of NHPC
Interpretation:
RSI chart shows bearish selling trend of stock. RSI point of last period shows 34
point, it give the clear-cut idea of negative movement of that particular stock.
POWERGRID
Table No 4.6.1
Share Price details of Powergrid
for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 52084
52 week high 124.45
52 week low 101.2
Interpretation:
The face value of POWERGRID is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs
52084 cr. The highest value for 52 week is Rs 124.45 and the low for the same is
Rs 101.2.
Table No 4.6.2
Pay Out Ratio of Powergrid for the year ended 2011-2012
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of POWERGRID is 9, their dividend yield ratio is also
1.87.
Table No 4.6.3
Return on Equity of Powergrid for the year ended 2011-2012
Interpretation:
The net worth of POWERGRID is Rs.23487. Their profit after tax is 3254 and
their return on net worth is 14.50
Table No 4.6.1
Key Ratios of Powergrid for the year ended 2011-2012
Interpretation :
The current ratio of POWERGRID is 0.74 and their debt equity ratio is 2.10. The
gross profit ratio is 90.81 percentage and net profit ratio is 32.43 percentage. Their
interest coverage ratio is 3.37.
Chart No 4.6.1
Line Chart of POWERGRID
!
Interpretation:
The share price of Powergrid shows a bullish trend during the last period of study.
The chart shows negative trend of price in the early period. The upward trend in
last period is good signal to investors.
Chart No 4.6.2
Candlestick Chart of POWERGRID
!
Interpretation:
RSI of powergrid stock is 70 above during the 9th period, after that it come down
into 45 level. 9th period is the idele time to buy POWERGRID stock.The 10th perid
shows 45 point level.that doesn’t show eihter a possative or a negative trend.
NTPC
Table No 4.7.1
Share Price details of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Face value 10
Market capitalization (Cr) 127763
52 week high 175
52 week low 136
Interpretation:
The face value of NTPC is Rs 10 each. Their market capitalization is Rs 127763 cr.
The highest value for 52 week is Rs 175 and the low for the same is Rs 136.
Table No 4.7.2
Pay Out Ratio of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Interpretation:
The Earnings Per Share of NTPC is 13.75, their dividend yield ratio is also 2.58.
Table No 4.7.3
Return on Equity of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Interpretation:
The net worth of NTPC is Rs.73291. Their profit after tax is 9223 and their return
on net worth is 13.07
Table No 4.7.4
Key Ratios of NTPC for the year ended 2011-2012
Interpretation :
The current ratio of NTPC is 2.10 and their debt equity ratio is 0.66. The gross
profit ratio is 29.94 percentage and net profit ratio is 14.76 percentage. Their
interest coverage ratio is 8.19.
Chart No 4.7.1
Line chart of NTPC
Interpretation:
The stock price NTPC falls in every rise. The stock shows negative trend in its
price in the early stage. The stock price fall from 170 to 140 during the time of
study. Now the stock trading at 150 level.
Chart No 4.7.2
Candlestick chart of NTPC
Interpretation:
NTPC stock price shows a down trend in the early stage of study.The stock shows
a recovery trend in the last stage. The stock price NTPC falls in every rise. Now
the stock trading at 150 level.
Chart No 4.7.3
Moving Average chart of NTPC
Interpretation:
5 day moving average of NTPC cut twice the resistance line of 50 day moving
average. The stock shows positive trend in its price. The support price of NTPC is
149. If the stock loss its support price it may lead to a fall in its price.
Chart No 4.7.4
RSI chart of NTPC
Interpretation:
RSI of NTPC stock shows 30 point level in 10th period of study. It shows bearish
selling trend of that particular stock.RSI of 9th period is above the 70 point level,
so 9th period is idle time to buy that particular stock
FINDINGS
o Table No 4.4.2 shows that the CESC have high EPS (49.46 rupees)
than other stocks followed by NTPC .(13.75 rupees)
o Chart No 4.4.4 shows the CESC and ADANI POWER stock shows a
bullish trend as per RSI chart.
o Chart No 4.3.3 and 4.5.3 shows that the TATA POWER, and NHPC,
stocks now trading below the critical line of 50 day moving average.
o MOVING AVERAGE shows mixed trend in all the stocks selected for
the study,so we can’t predict the share price trend of power sector as a
whole.
CHAPTER NO. 5 :
SUGGESTIONS
o Fundamentals of all power stock are not strong, as per the financial
statement year ended 2012
o Movement of TATA POWER, and NHPC shows a weaker trend. The
stocks now trading below the critical line so that an investor can move
from these stocks.
o ADANI POWER, RELIANCE and CESC shows bullish trend in its
share price and it is advisory to hold these shares.
o Investor can buy CESC stock in a long term prospective.
o It is better to book profit on NTPC & POWER GRID stocks even
though they trading above the 50 day moving average.(RSI Chart
shows bearish trend).
o It is advisory to an investor, should not depend only on one tool,
rather one has gone for other chart patterns to get confirmation for buy
or sell signal.
oThe risk is common for all securities. The scrip that is having low
price may also be subject to high risk. The main reason is that market
is unpredictable. So the investor must invest carefully. Since the risk
is involved in every scrip, greater emphasize is given to return in each
investment
CONCLUSIONS
The study deals with share and share trading gives a general idea about
the analysis of stocks. The analysis carried on two basis, Fundamental
analysis and technical analysis. Technical analysis shows a short term trend
based on historical data and fundamental analysis helpful for the decision
making for long term investment. From the analysis it is found that the
charts prepared on the basis of the share price, with the support of technical
tools shows all the trends and variations as interpreted in the theory. In the
analysis using moving average it is found that if the price is lying above the
moving average, the scrip is in a bullish trend if the price lying below the
moving average the scrip is in bearish trend. Technical analysis ignores the
actual nature of the company. Technical analysis is based solely on the chart
that is to say price and volume information. The investor has to invest
wisely on the scrip which gives high return with most possible risk.