What is climate

change?
Climate change refers to a large-scale, long-term shift in the planet's weather
patterns and average temperatures.

Climate change is the long-term shift in average weather patterns across the
world. Since the mid-1800s, humans have contributed to the release of carbon
dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the air. This causes global
temperatures to rise, resulting in long-term changes to the climate.

Climate change evidence

How are humans changing the climate?

In the 11,000 years before the Industrial Revolution, the average temperature
across the world was stable at around 14°C. The Industrial Revolution began
in the mid-1800s when humans began to burn fossil fuels such as coal, oil,
and gas for fuel.

Burning fossil fuels produces energy, but also releases greenhouse gases
such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous monoxide into the air. Over
time, large quantities of these gases have built up in the atmosphere.

For example, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose by 40%
during the 20th and 21st century and is now over 400ppm (parts per million).
This level of carbon dioxide is higher than at any time in the past 800,000
years.
This plot shows the global temperature change from 1850 to 2018, compared
to the 1961-1990 average temperature.
 This graph shows the rising level of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere since
1960, measured by the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.

Once in the atmosphere, greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide form a

'blanket' around the planet. This blanket traps the heat from the sun and
causes the earth to heat up.

This effect was noticed as far back as the 1980s. In 1988, the International
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up to provide governments with
information to tackle climate change.

Evidence has shown that the high levels of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere are the leading cause of increasing global temperatures.
Scientists have been able to rule out natural events as causes of climate
change, such as volcanic activity, changes in solar activity, or natural sources
of CO2. These may, however, have a small effect, on top of human
contributions.

In their most recent report, the IPCC states that human activity is 'extremely
likely' to be the main cause of climate change.

How fast is the temperature rising?

Since the Industrial Revolution, the average temperature of the planet has
risen by around 1°C. This is a rapid change in terms of our global climate
system. Previously, natural global changes are understood to have happened
over much longer periods of time. It is also important to remember that the
world is not warming evenly, so the temperature increase is higher than 1°C in
some countries.
This graph shows the average global temperature for each month, from 1850
to 2017. The temperature increases as you move away from the centre of the
circle.
 This image shows that the five warmest years have all occurred since 2006.
Cooler years are blue, while warmer years are red.

This graph shows us that global temperatures are increasing. As of 2018, the
20 warmest years on record globally have been in the past 22 years. The Met
Office’s State of the UK Climate report for 2018 shows the ten hottest years in
the UK since 1884 have all happened in the last 17 years.

What causes climate change?

What is the greenhouse effect?

When greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide build in the atmosphere,

they act like a blanket around the earth. When sunlight (ultraviolet radiation)
hits this blanket, it passes straight through and continues until it reaches the
surface of the planet.

The earth then absorbs this sunlight and emits a different type of light, infrared
radiation, back out to space. As it leaves the atmosphere, the infrared
radiation also hits the greenhouse gas blanket. Most of it goes straight
through, but some of it is absorbed and goes back down to earth. This traps
the infrared radiation and causes the surface to heat – a process we call the
'greenhouse effect'.

It is crucial to understand that the greenhouse effect is critical to life on earth.

Without a blanket of greenhouse gases trapping in heat, the temperature
would be bitterly cold, and humans would be unable to survive. However, by
adding extra greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, humans have created
an enhanced greenhouse effect.

The greenhouse gas blanket is now thicker and is absorbing more infrared
radiation than before. In other words, the greenhouse effect is stronger and,
instead of keeping the earth at a stable temperature, it is causing the planet to
heat up.

What are the sources of greenhouse gases?

One-quarter of human-made greenhouse gas emissions come from burning

fossil fuels for electricity and heat production.
 This chart shows the human-made greenhouse gas emissions, taken from
the IPCC AR5 report. AFOLU stands for Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land
Use.

Another quarter of human-made greenhouse gas emissions comes from

Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU).

To feed our livestock and ourselves, people have chopped down large areas
of the forest and used the land to grow crops. Forests are very good at
removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and so cutting down trees
allows carbon dioxide to build up in the atmosphere even more.

Land can also be used to rear livestock, such as cattle for meat and milk.
These animals produce additional gases, like methane. They also eat crops
that might otherwise have been needed by humans, meaning that even more
land is required.

As well as fossil fuels, deforestation and land use, aeroplanes and the
production of cement also contribute to emissions of carbon dioxide.

How much warming could we see?

Greenhouse gases can live in our atmosphere for tens or hundreds of years.
The gases that are already in our atmosphere are effectively locked in and will
contribute to increasing temperatures.

Even if we stop all emissions today, we cannot avoid some level of warming.
The amount of warming we will see, beyond what we have already caused,
depends on the changes we make.

In 2015, almost every country in the world signed a document promising to cut
down on greenhouse gas emissions. The aim was to limit the average global
temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. If possible, countries
pledged to aim for a 1.5°C limit.

Since then, the IPCC has published a report explaining the different impacts
between a 1.5 or 2°C temperature rise. It showed that there are many benefits
for people all over the world in limiting temperatures to 1.5°C. Large and rapid
reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions are needed to meet this goal,
however.
This chart from the IPCC shows two possible futures for our climate. The blue
line represents what could happen if we commit to cutting emissions, and the
red line represents what could happen if we don't make any changes.

If we want to avoid significant increases in the average surface temperature,

we must cut greenhouse gas emissions and switch to renewable energy
sources. We must also use land more sustainably and may need to use
techniques to remove carbon dioxide from the air.
If we continue to burn fossil fuels and cut down forests at the same rate, the
planet could warm by more than 4°C by 2100. This warming could
fundamentally change life on earth, with potentially drastic consequences.

What is the difference between 1.5 or 2°C of warming?

Impacts of climate change

Human activity – from releasing greenhouse gases and aerosols into the
atmosphere, to changing the use of land – is the main driver of climate
change. This has a range of impacts on the climate system, ecosystems, and
people.
This image illustrates some of the drivers of climate change and the impacts
they could have on the climate system.

Changes to the climate system include:

 Rising ocean levels – Rising temperatures are causing glaciers and

ice sheets to melt, adding more water to the oceans and causing the
ocean level to rise. Oceans absorb 90% of the extra heat from global
warming: warmer water expands, and so our oceans are taking up more
space.
 Ocean acidification – Ocean acidification occurs when the ocean
absorbs carbon dioxide and becomes more acidic. It is often called the
'evil twin' of climate change.
 Extreme weather events – Climate change is causing many extreme
weather events to become more intense and frequent, such as
heatwaves, droughts, and floods.
This graph, from Munich RE's Topics Geo Natural Catastrophes report, shows
events causing loss are becoming more frequent.

Climate change can also affect people and ecosystems. For example:

 Flooding of coastal regions – Coastal cities are at risk from flooding

as sea levels continue to rise.
 Food insecurity – High temperatures, extreme weather events,
flooding, and droughts can damage farmland. This makes it difficult for
farmers to grow crops and means that their yield of crops each year is
uncertain.
 Conflict and climate migrants – Climate change is a stress multiplier –
it can take existing problems, such as lack of food or shelter, and make
them worse. This can cause people to fight over resources (food, water,
and shelter), or to migrate.
 Damage to marine ecosystems – Rising ocean temperatures, ocean
acidification, and ocean anoxia (lack of oxygen) are damaging to marine
life such as fish and coral reefs.

How can we stop climate change?

Reduce global greenhouse gas emissions

The most crucial step to limit climate change is to make big and rapid
reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions. There are many different
ways this can be done and governments, businesses, organisations and
individuals around the world can all contribute. In June 2019, the UK became
the world’s first major economy to pass a law committing the country to a
target of ‘net zero’ emissions by 2050.

You can read more about what they are doing to achieve this, as well as what
businesses and individuals can do to help, on the Green GB website.

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