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Bangladesh Telecom Market Update
October 07, 2010
Norwegian‐Russian Telecom firm Vimpelcom has declared to have taken controlling stake in the Orascom
Telecom, the owning company of Banglalink. New Vimpelcom will become world’s 5th largest telecom
operator in terms of subscriber base from its current position at 15. The deal has implication not only for
the global telecom market but also for the Bangladesh. Telenor Group, 55.8% shareholder of the largest
Bangladeshi telecom operator, Grameenphone Ltd, will have 15% voting right in Banglalink after the deal
closes.
Figure 1: Implication of formation of New Vimpelcom on Bangladeshi Telecom Operators’ ownership
structure.
Source: http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/news‐details.php?nid=157324
Post‐merger, Telenor will have significant stake in top two Bangladeshi telecom operators Grameenphone
(GP) and Banglalink (BL). Such top tier consolidation may work as a catalyst to reduce the degree of
competition in the local market, to change pricing and market penetration strategy and to improve return
on investment through strategic partnership. Ongoing fierce rivalry among GP and BL to acquire market
share may change. Probable strategic partnership between GP and BL may collectively compete with
Warid Telecom (a 70% owned subsidiary of Indian telecom giant Bhairti Airtel) and other smaller players.
In spite of having highest start up cost in the region, Bangladesh industry average subscriber growth was
24.3% over the first eight months of 2010. GP and BL grew their subscriber base by 20.4% and 30.8% over
the same period. Most of the operators subsidize SIM Tax of US$ 13.00 or BDT 800.00 which adversely
affects their profit margin besides top line growth. Currently GP and BL have 43.9% and 27.2% market
share respectively. If GP and BL form any strategic partnership due to Telenor’s common shareholding,
brutal competition may ease which in turn may reduce SIM Tax subsidy and improve margin. Jointly, a
probable partnership may serve more than 75% in 2 years. Such partnership may have implication for
service pricing and ARPU trend as well. On the other hand, it may bring forward the question of GP’s
significant market power and other regulatory issues if such partnership is pursued.
Bangladesh Telecom Market Update
October 07, 2010
Table 1: Market share and subscriber growth status of different operators of Bangladesh:
As on August 2010
Subscriber Base of Mobile Operators
Mkt Share Subscriber No (Mln) 1 Yr Growth
Grameen Phone (GP) 44.0% 27.9 32.1%
Axiata (Bangladesh) Limited 18.1% 11.5 12.5%
Orascom Telecom BD Ltd (Banglalink) 27.7% 17.5 47.5%
PBTL (Citycell) 3.1% 2.0 0.3%
Warid Telecom International L.L.C (Warid) 5.4% 3.4 30.0%
Teletalk Bangladesh Ltd. (Teletalk) 1.8% 1.1 4.4%
Total 100.0% 63.5 29.8%
Source: BTRC
Since financial condition of Vimpelcom is relatively stonger than that of Orascom Group, Banglalink may
thrive further with cheap access to required capital. Being the second largest operator, BL is scheduled to
be listed in local bourses sometimes in 2011. Vimpelcom (including Telenor) will pursue to improve valua‐
tion condition of the company by then.
Transaction Details:
1. VimpelCom declares to take 100% stake of Weather Investments, the parent company of
Wind Italy
Orascom Telecom
2. Consideration comprising: In our opinion the $6.6 billion
325.6 million newly‐issued VimpelCom common shares representing 20% economic
stake (18.5% voting) in enlarged VimpelCom group
transaction of Vimpelcom Ltd.
US$1.8 billion cash has significant implication for
rights related to Wind Italy and Orascom Telecom spin‐off assets
total consideration US$6 6 billion (excluding value of spin‐off assets) the telecom industry of Bangla‐
3. Implied pro forma LTM 2010 EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.2x (proportionate basis) desh. Apparently Telenor Group
4. Cash earnings expected to be accretive from year 1
will gain more power to shape
Note: Cash earnings defined as EBITDA minus interests and tax
LTM 2010 EV/EBITDA multiple and total consideration based on VimpelCom Ltd share price as at 1 October 2010.
the future industry dynamics
Source: http://www.vimpelcom.com/media/cad8ed35‐5eb0‐4939‐ae20‐d5848bebb608.pdf
through this deal. The deal may
open new frontier of competi‐
Valuation:
tion where operators under
Telenor’s shareholding will
compete with other emerging
operator’s such as Warid Tele‐
com and Axiata Bangladesh Ltd.
Source: http://www.vimpelcom.com/media/cad8ed35‐5eb0‐4939‐ae20‐d5848bebb608.pdf
Bangladesh Telecom Market Update
October 07, 2010
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