Fuzzy and Bayes Intro

CS6659 Artificial Intelligence
Session VII 18-03-2016

Reasoning with Fuzzy logic and Bayesian systems
Dr. Bama S
Assistant Professor
Department of Information Science and Technology
CEG Campus
Anna University
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Fuzzy Logic Introduction
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1 We say something like “it is sunny and warm today”
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2 And “If it is sunny and warm today, I can walk outside”
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3 From the above statements we automatically infer “I can
walk outside”
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3 From the above statements we automatically infer “I can
walk outside”
4 Definition: A form of knowledge representation suitable for

notions that cannot be defined precisely, but which depend
upon their contexts.
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Representation in Classical Logic
-Adapted from Shane Warren & Brittney Ballard slides
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Representation in Fuzzy Logic
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Representation in Fuzzy Logic Contd.,
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Origins
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Fuzzy control system
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Fuzzy Temperature controller
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Fuzzy Control System - Block diagram
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Crisp vs Fuzzy sets
Crisp variables. Eg - x = 3.1415296, A ∈ {0, 1}
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Crisp vs Fuzzy sets
The proposition is either True or False.
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Crisp vs Fuzzy sets
Example: “If King Richard is greedy, then he is evil”. In

predicate logic,
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Crisp vs Fuzzy sets

predicate logic,
king(Richard) ∧ greedy (Richard) → Evil(Richard).
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Crisp vs Fuzzy sets

predicate logic,
king(Richard) ∧ greedy (Richard) → Evil(Richard).
Richard is either greedy or he isn’t:
Greedy (Richard) ∈ {0, 1}

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Fuzzy sets
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Fuzzy sets
What if Richard is somewhat greedy?
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Fuzzy sets
The degree to which the greediness or not greediness can

b represented using a fuzzy set.
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Fuzzy sets

Fuzzy sets have values in the range [0, 1].
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Fuzzy sets

Fuzzy sets have values in the range [0, 1].
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Fuzzy Control system - Example
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Two inputs: Temperature and Cloud Cover.
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Output: Control the driving speed.
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If the temperature is warm and the cover is sunny, then

drive fast.
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If the temperature is warm and the cover is sunny, then

drive fast.
If the temperature is freezing and the cover is partly, drive

very slow.
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Fuzzy Linguistic Variables - Inputs
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Fuzzy Linguistic Variables - Inputs
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Fuzzy Linguistic Variables - Output
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Rules
If it’s sunny and warm, drive Fast.
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Rules
sunny (cover ) ∧ warm(temp) → Fast(speed)
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Rules
If it’s cloudy and cool, drive slow.
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Rules
cloudy (cover ) ∧ cool(temp) → slow(speed)
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Rules
cloudy (cover ) ∧ cool(temp) → slow(speed)
Driving speed is the combination of ouput of these rules...
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Example speed calculation
How fast will one drive if it is:
65◦ F
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Example speed calculation
How fast will one drive if it is:
65◦ F
25% cloud cover
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Fuzzification
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Fuzzification
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Fuzzy operators
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Fuzzy disjunction
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Fuzzy conjunction
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Fuzzy conjunction
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Fuzzy conjunction
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Fuzzy conjunction
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Fuzzy conjunction
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Back to example
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Defuzzification
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Defuzzification
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Defuzzification
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Defuzzification
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Defuzzification
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Benefits
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Source
Most of the slides are adapted from Andrew L. Nelson’s slides

of Introduction to Fuzzy Logic Control
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Reasoning with probability
Used for predicting models
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Prior Distribution: use probability to quantify uncertainty

about unknown quantities (parameters)
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Likelihood: relates all variables into a full probability model
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Likelihood: relates all variables into a full probability model
Posterior Distribution: result of using data to update

information about unknown quantities (parameters)
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Bayes Theorem
(P(B|A)P(A)
P(A|B) =
P(B)
where P(B), P(B) - Prior probability,

P(B/A) - Likelihood
P(A/B) - Posterior probability
If E1 , E2 ..., En are n-mutually exclusive events with P(Aj ) > 0 for
all i. Then for any event A which is a subset of S, Bayes
theorem is given by:
P(Ei ).P(A/Ei )
P(Ei /A) =
∑ni=1 P(Ei )P( EAi )
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Example 1
An urn B1 contains 2 white and 3 black balls and another urn

B2 contains 3 white and 4 black balls. One urn is selected at
random and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is found
black, find the probability that the urn chosen was B1.
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Example 1

Let B1 and B2 denote urns 1 and 2, respectively.
pause
P(B1 ) = P(B2 ) = 12 .
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Example 1

pause
P(B1 ) = P(B2 ) = 12 .
P(B1 |Black ) =?
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Example 1

pause
P(B1 ) = P(B2 ) = 12 .
P(B1 |Black ) =?
P(Black |B1 ) = 35 , P(Black |B2 ) = 74
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Example 1

pause
P(B1 ) = P(B2 ) = 12 .
P(B1 |Black ) =?
P(Black |B1 ) = 35 , P(Black |B2 ) = 74
(Black |B1 )P(B1 )
P(B1 |Black ) =
P(B1 )P(Black |B1 ) + P(B2 )P(Black |B2 )
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Example 1

pause
P(B1 ) = P(B2 ) = 12 .
P(B1 |Black ) =?
P(Black |B1 ) = 35 , P(Black |B2 ) = 74
(Black |B1 )P(B1 )
P(B1 |Black ) =
P(B1 )P(Black |B1 ) + P(B2 )P(Black |B2 )
( 35 )( 12 ) 21
= =
( 12 )( 35 ) + ( 12 )( 74 ) 41
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Example 2
A is known to tell the truth in 5 cases out of 6 and he states that

a white ball was drawn from a bag containing 8 blacks and 1
white ball. Find the probability that the white ball was drawn.
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Example 2

P(truth) = 65 , P(¬truth) = 16 , Total balls = 9, P(w) = 91 ,
where w - white ball.
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Example 2

P(w|truth) =?
P(truth|w)P(w)
P(w|truth) =
P(truth|w)P(w) + P(¬truth|w)P(¬w)
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Example 2

P(w|truth) =?
P(truth|w)P(w)
P(w|truth) =
P(truth|w)P(w) + P(¬truth|w)P(¬w)
( 56 )( 19 ) 5
= =
( 56 )( 19 ) + ( 16 )( 98 ) 13
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Example3
The urns contain 6 green, 4 black; 4 green, 6 black and 5

green, 5 black balls respectively. Randomly selected an urn
and a ball is drawn from it. If the ball drawn is Green, find the
probability that it is drawn from the first urn.
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Fuzzy and Bayes Intro

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CS6659 Artificial Intelligence

Session VII 18-03-2016

4 Definition: A form of knowledge representation suitable for

Crisp variables. Eg - x = 3.1415296, A ∈ {0, 1}

Crisp variables. Eg - x = 3.1415296, A ∈ {0, 1}

The proposition is either True or False.

Crisp variables. Eg - x = 3.1415296, A ∈ {0, 1}

The proposition is either True or False.

Example: “If King Richard is greedy, then he is evil”. In

Crisp variables. Eg - x = 3.1415296, A ∈ {0, 1}

The proposition is either True or False.

Example: “If King Richard is greedy, then he is evil”. In

king(Richard) ∧ greedy (Richard) → Evil(Richard).

Crisp variables. Eg - x = 3.1415296, A ∈ {0, 1}

The proposition is either True or False.

Example: “If King Richard is greedy, then he is evil”. In

king(Richard) ∧ greedy (Richard) → Evil(Richard).

Richard is either greedy or he isn’t:

Greedy (Richard) ∈ {0, 1}

What if Richard is somewhat greedy?

What if Richard is somewhat greedy?

The degree to which the greediness or not greediness can

What if Richard is somewhat greedy?

The degree to which the greediness or not greediness can

Fuzzy sets have values in the range [0, 1].

What if Richard is somewhat greedy?

The degree to which the greediness or not greediness can

Fuzzy sets have values in the range [0, 1].

Two inputs: Temperature and Cloud Cover.

Two inputs: Temperature and Cloud Cover.

Output: Control the driving speed.

Two inputs: Temperature and Cloud Cover.

Output: Control the driving speed.

If the temperature is warm and the cover is sunny, then

Two inputs: Temperature and Cloud Cover.

Output: Control the driving speed.

If the temperature is warm and the cover is sunny, then

If the temperature is freezing and the cover is partly, drive

If it’s sunny and warm, drive Fast.

If it’s sunny and warm, drive Fast.

sunny (cover ) ∧ warm(temp) → Fast(speed)

If it’s sunny and warm, drive Fast.

sunny (cover ) ∧ warm(temp) → Fast(speed)

If it’s cloudy and cool, drive slow.

If it’s sunny and warm, drive Fast.

sunny (cover ) ∧ warm(temp) → Fast(speed)

If it’s cloudy and cool, drive slow.

cloudy (cover ) ∧ cool(temp) → slow(speed)

If it’s sunny and warm, drive Fast.

sunny (cover ) ∧ warm(temp) → Fast(speed)

If it’s cloudy and cool, drive slow.

cloudy (cover ) ∧ cool(temp) → slow(speed)

Driving speed is the combination of ouput of these rules...

25% cloud cover

Most of the slides are adapted from Andrew L. Nelson’s slides

Used for predicting models

Used for predicting models

Prior Distribution: use probability to quantify uncertainty

Used for predicting models

Prior Distribution: use probability to quantify uncertainty

Likelihood: relates all variables into a full probability model

Used for predicting models

Prior Distribution: use probability to quantify uncertainty