Mass Shootings: Epidemic or Panic?

James Alan Fox

Northeastern University

National Press Foundation

November 12, 2019
Mass shootings not a hot topic In 1980s
 There were mass shootings, but not the panic

7/18/84 1/17/89

8/20/86 10/16/91
Then came 2012
NEW YORK (AP) — The horrific massacre of 26
children and staff at a Connecticut elementary school,
along with other mass shootings, was the top news
story of 2012, narrowly edging out the U.S. election,
according to The Associated Press' annual poll of U.S.
editors and news directors
 Public interest is soaring
Google Trends
8
7
Monthly Ave. Pct.
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
Mass Shooting Homicide
 Heightened scholarly interest
"Mass shooting" citations in Google Scholar
2,500

2,000
Publications
1,500

1,000

500

0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Year
 A mass shooting epidemic?

“We Are In The Midst Of An Epidemic

Of Mass Shootings”
Joe Scarborough, Morning Joe
MSNBC, 2/15/2018
 An epidemic of fear

Affraid or very affraid of mass shootings

50% Ipsos/USA Today Aug 2019 Poll:
41.5%
40% 21% skipped public events where
29.9%
30%
28.1%
there would be a lot of people.
16.4%
20%

10%

0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 ABC News/Wash Post Poll (Sept 2019):
Year
Six in 10 fear a mass shootings in
Source: Chapman University Survey of American Fears their community
 The case for balloon control

Sorority apologizes for balloon popping that

set off false active shooter alarm at the
University of Michigan
Detroit Free Press, March 25, 2019

Popping balloons trigger Simmons

University scare
Boston Herald, August 15, 2018

Police: Popped Balloon Led To False Report Of

Active Shooter & Evacuation At Boca’s Town
Center Mall
CBS Miami, October 15, 2019
Gunfire and fireworks
Math murder
 Perception v. reality
Trends in Mass Killing Incidents
Source: Associated Press/USA Today/Northeastern Univ. Mass Murder Database
50

40
Mass killing
30
Incidents

Mass shooting

20 Mass public
shooting
10

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*
Year
*2019 projection as of 11/8/2019
 Accessorized to kill

Victims
Name Year Primary location Place
killed
Patrick Crusius 22 2019 Store El Paso, TX
Stephen Paddock 58 2017 Concert Las Vegas, NV
Devin Patrick Kelley 25 2017 Church Sutherland Sprins, TX
Omar Saddiqui Mateen 49 2016 Nighhtclub Orlando, FL
Adam Peter Lanza 27(26+1) 2012 School Newtown, CT
Seung-Hui Cho 32 2007 College Blacksburg, VA
George Jo Hennard 23 1991 Restaurant Killeen, TX
James Oliver Huberty 21 1984 Restaurant San Ysidro, CA
Family massacres: The most common and least publicized

Trends in Mass Killing Incidents by Type

Source: Associated Press/USA Today/Northeastern Univ. Project
25

20
Family
15
Incidents

Felony
10
Public
5
Other/Unknown

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*
Year
*2019 projection as of 11/8/2019
 Why the disconnect?
• Flawed data sets
• Confusion from conflicting definitions
• Amount and nature of media coverage
 Math murder

• Missing data bias based

on retrospective data
collection
• Inconsistent selection
criteria
• Law of small numbers
• Overly broad
definitions mixing very
different types of
events
Promoted by FiveThirtyEight and others
 A sharp increase?
Mother Jones Mass Shooting Trend
15

12
Incidents

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
 Illegal shift
Mother Jones Mass Shooting Trend
15

12
Incidents

6
3 victims
4+victims
3

0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
 Not the right TIME

Mass shootings, 1/1/1976 - 10/1/2017

160
Incidents Victims
120

80

40

0
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Year
 Active shooters v. mass shooters
• Illustrations used gave wrong impression
• Incorrect headlines: An active shooter is “an individual actively
engaged in killing or attempting to kill people
• “Mass shootings on the Rise” (CNN) in a confined and populated area.”
• AG: Number of mass shootings tripled (AP) “This is not a study of mass killings or mass
shootings” FBI, 2014
The just-released “A Study of Active
Shooter Incidents in the United States
Between 2000 and 2013” contains a
full list of the 160 incidents used in
study, including those that occurred at
Virginia Tech, Sandy Hook Elementary
School, the U.S. Holocaust Memorial
Museum, Fort Hood, the Aurora
(Colorado) Cinemark Century 16
movie theater, the Sikh Temple of
Wisconsin, and the Washington Navy
Yard, as well as numerous other tragic
shootings. FBI Release
 Hard to find low level cases from the past
• In the five years since the FBI began
surveying active shooter events (2014-18),
37.0% of assailants failed to kill anyone. In
the first five years of the FBI database
(2000-04), only 7.7% killed no one. April 3, 2018

• Either active shooters of recent vintage are

poorer marksmen, or the less serious
cases of earlier years were not identified.

U of AZ instructors killed, 2002

 An unlikely trend
Stanford Geospatial Center Data (3+ shot)
80
70
60
50
Incidents

40
30
20
10
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
 A big deal out of small numbers
Klarevas's Data on Mass Shootings (6+ Killed)
8
7
6
5
Incidents

4
3
2
1
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
 Regression to the mean
Klarevas's 6+ Victim Data Corrected and Extended
8
7
6
5
Incidents

4
Klarevas
3
USAT/AP/NU
2
1
0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Year
 Support for the Federal Assault Weapons Ban?
Klarevas's Data on Mass Shootings (6+ Killed)
8
Louis Klarevas: 7

Drastic reductions 6

in gun massacres 5

Incidents
4
associated with 3
the Assault 2
Weapons Ban 1
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
The Gun Violence Archive (2013--)
 Mass confusion
“There have been more mass
shootings than days this year”

CBS News, September 1, 2019

“There have been 1,001 mass

shootings in America since 2013”

Washington Post, October 12, 2015

 Death is different

GVA Fatalities, 2013-2019 GVA Mass Shootings (4+ Shot)

500
(4+ Shot) Actual Projected
400

Killed Number Percent

Incidents
300
0 1,082 48%
200
1 648 28%
2 231 10% 100
3 135 6%
0
4+ 180 8% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Total 2,276 100% Year

No benchmark to assess
1.1 average deaths per incident (including assailant)
long-term trend
Seeing is believing
Now a nation watches
The death toll rises
 Deadliest, worst, largest
• “Texas school shooting kills 10, deadliest since Parkland.” Houston
Chronicle. May 19, 2018.
• “Aurora marks the state's worst mass shooting since Columbine in
1999.” NPR. July 20, 2012.
Records are made to be broken
Unspeakable Crimes/Unspeakable Criminals
An undeserved stage
No notoriety?
News reporting or celebrity watch?

Stephen Paddock on high school tennis team

A little disagreement
 A manifesto or just a rant?

“I never wanted my writing to

be called a ‘manifesto.’”
Dylann Roof
Resilience rather than suffering
Copycatting v. Contagion
 The Nature of Contagion
• Analysis of contagion must reflect extent of media coverage
• Daily counts/length of mass shooting coverage (2000-2018) in the AP domestic
wire, major U.S. newspapers, and network news programs

MPS Victims and Major Newspaper Coverage

100%

80%
Pct. of Maimum

60%

40%

20%

0%

Year
Major Paper Coverage MPS victims
 The Nature of Contagion
• Analysis of contagion must reflect extent of media coverage
• Daily counts/length of mass shooting coverage (2000-2018) in the AP
domestic wire, major U.S. newspapers, and network news programs

Major Newspaper Coverage before/after MPS

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-14 -13 -12 -11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Days
 Rise and fall of contagion
Killed Victims Total
Date Shooter, Age School Location
Students Staff Others Wounded Victims

05/01/92 Eric Christopher Houston, 20 Lindhurst High School Lindhurst, CA 4 0 0 10 14

02/02/96 Barry Loukaitis, 14 Frontier Junior High School Moses Lake, WA 2 1 0 1 4
02/19/97 Evan Ramsey, 16 Bethel Regional High School Bethel, AL 1 1 0 2 4
10/01/97 Luke Woodham, 16 Pearl High School Pearl, MS 2 0 1 7 10
12/01/97 Michael Carneal, 14 Heath High School West Paducah, KY 3 0 0 5 8
03/24/98 Mitchell Johnson, 13 & Andrew Golden, 11 Westside Middle School Jonesboro, AR 4 1 0 10 15
“School shootings are an
05/21/98 Kipland Kinkel, 15 Thurston High School Springfield, OR 2 0 2 25 29
epidemic.” Dan Rather,
04/20/99 Eric Harris, 18 & Dylan Klebold, 17 Columbine High School Littleton, CO 12 1 0 23 36
03/05/01 Charles "Andy" Williams, 15 Santana High School Santee, CA 2 0 0 23 15
March 5, 2001
03/21/05 Jeffrey Weise, 16 Red Lake High School Red Lake, MN 5 2 2 5 14
10/02/06 Charles Roberts IV, 32 West Nickel Mines School Nickel Mines, PA 5 0 0 5 10
02/27/12 Thomas "T.J." Lane III, 17 Chardon High School Chardon, OH 3 0 0 3 6
12/14/12 Adam Lanza, 20 Sandy Hook Elementary School Newtown, CT 20 6 1 2 29
10/24/14 Jaylen Fryberg, 15 Marysville-Pilchuck High School Marysville, WA 4 0 0 3 7
09/28/16 Jesse Osborn, 14 Townville Elementary School Townville, SC 1 0 1 3 5
01/23/18 Gabe Parker, 15 Marshall County High School Benton, KY 2 0 0 14 16
02/14/18 Nikolas Cruz, 19 Stoneman Douglas High School Parkland, FL 14 3 0 14 31
05/18/18 Dimitrios Pagourtzis, 17 Santa Fe High School Santa Fe, TX 8 2 0 10 20

Note: Incidents with 4+ victims and at least two deaths (not including the assailant); Cases through May 2018
Special concern for school shootings
 School shootings

“School shootings in this country have 2/14/18

become an epidemic.”
Dan Rather, CBS News, March 5, 2001

5/18/18
“I want to go to my graduation, not to my grave”
Everytown for Gun Safety, May 25, 2018
“Since Sandy Hook there has been a
school shooting, on average, every
week. “ Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.)
6/24/2015

“America averages about one school

shooting each week, report says” WCVB
Boston, 2/15/18

“School Shootings Are Becoming the

New Normal” TIME, 5/22/18
 Mixing watermelons and grapes
Incidents Victims

Category Count Year Students All Victims

All Incidents 361 2013 3 9
Incidents K-12 220 2014 7 12
Accidental 26 2015 0 4
At/Comp. Suicide 30 2016 2 3
Gun fired, no injuries 59 2017 1 2
Attacks with injury/death 105 2018 27 39
Fatal attacks 25 Total 40 69
Average 6.7 11.5

Everytown for Gun Safety, 2013-2018

 Not so misleading

May 2018 May 2019

Conspiracy theories abound

“Now, we have learned that [Nikolas] Cruz

has a very ‘controversial’ connection to
former President Barack Obama, and the
media definitely doesn’t want you to know
about it.” MaddWorldNews.Com
Cutting Edge Ministries: “A left-wing conspiracy to disarm America”

“This map suggested to us that these school shootings were planned events, with the purpose of convincing
enough Americans that guns are an evil that needs to be dealt with severely, thus allowing the Federal
Government to achieve its Illuminist goal of seizing all weapons.” Cutting Edge Ministries
 Fatal school shooting incidents, K-12
40

Incidents Victims
30
Count

20

10

School Year

Sources: National School Safety Center, Centers for Disease Control, and various online reports
 Campus shootings
35
Killed Wounded
30

25
Victims

20

15

10

0
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Academic Year
Doing the right thing for the wrong reason
The mental health deflection

“We need to help people

struggling with mental health
problems get the treatment they
need before it is too late”
Barack Obama,
4/8/13

59
 Many gun control proposals
• Raising age for purchasing long gun
• “Red Flag” laws
• Universal background checks
• Ban on bump stocks
• Limit the size of magazines
• Restore the Federal Assault Weapons Ban
• Repeal the 2003 Tiahrt Amendment
• Repeal the 2005 Protection of Lawful
Commerce in Arms Act
 Limits of background checks
• Legal purchase
• Private sale
• Beg/borrow/steal
• Processing error
• Inadequate response
AWB had no systematic effect
Assault weapons and high-capacity magazines
Concealed carry on campus
Expanding campus carry
Time to wrap it up, Fox
 How to stop mass shootings
• Eliminate all private ownership of guns
and abolish the Second Amendment.
• Collect all 300+ million guns currently in
circulation.
• Round up everyone who writes hateful
Facebook posts, plays violent video
games excessively, or is obsessed with
mass killers.
• Place metal detectors in the doorways of
all public buildings

Not likely
67
 Unwelcomed support
That there is not an epidemic
of mass shootings doesn’t
mean there isn’t a gun
problem. We do need
stronger gun laws as well as a
better support system for
troubled Americas. But the
reasons for doing these
things are the thousands of
gun deaths that occur
annually, not the hundreds
who die in a mass shooting.
That’s All Folks Fox