UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE INGENIERÍA

FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍA QUÍMICA Y TEXTIL

Departamento Acádemico de Ingeniería Química

TRABAJO MONOGRAFICO

PI 510 B

Análisis de sensibilidad del proyecto litio para baterías

Docente: MSc. Ing. Magali C. Vivas Cuellar

Integrantes del grupo de trabajo:

Cajaleon Flores Carlos

Carrion Ccoicca Jhon

Diaz Justo Pedro

Huarcaya Quispe Orlando

Landeo Uquiche Arturo

Lima, Lunes 12/11/2018

INDICE
1.- OBJETIVO ............................................................................................................................. 3
2.- METODOLOGIA ................................................................................................................... 3
3.- ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD .......................................................................................... 3
3.1Sensibilidad de la inversión ......................................................................................... 4
3.2 Sensibilidad de precio de materia prima ................................................................. 6
3.3 Sensibilidad del producto ........................................................................................... 8
3.4 Sensibilidad de costos variables ............................................................................ 10
4.- GRAFICA DE SENSIBILIDAD ......................................................................................... 13
5.- CONCLUSIONES ............................................................................................................... 13
1.- OBJETIVO
 Seleccionar 4 variables del proyecto litio para baterías más relevantes para la
evaluación económica
 Realizar un análisis de sensibilidad para los factores seleccionados el proyecto
de litio para baterías y determinar que variables son más sensibles
 Determinar los indicador probabilidad de nuestro proyecto, para comparar cual
es mas rentable

2.- METODOLOGIA
1) Para nuestro proyecto de litio para batería hemos definido 4 variables claves para
la evaluación de rentabilidad del proyecto
 Inversión
 Precio de materia prima
 Precio de producto
 Costos variables
2) En adición al valor esperado de las variables, se identifican los valores mínimos y
máximos que alcanzarían las variables. Estos valores se expresan como tanto por uno
del valor esperado

Variables Valor(min) Valor(max) Valor Esperado

inversion 138358.3 224832.2 172947.9
Precio de la materia 5400.00 9600.00 6000
prima
Precio del producto 14400.00 20800.00 16000
costo variables 22830538.8 37099625.6 28538173.5

3.- ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD

Valor Mínimo Valor Máximo
Variables (β MIN) (β MAX)
Inversión 0.80 1.30
Precio de la materia prima 0.90 1.60
Precio del producto 0.90 1.30
Costos variables 0.80 1.30
3.1Sensibilidad de la inversión
Evaluación Económica
FNF (MMUS$ de 0) Rentabilidad

0 1 2 3 4 5 VPN TD,0 TIR

β
0.80 -$58,083,286.89 $21,217,914.89 $29,779,366.94 $29,779,366.94 $29,779,366.94 $75,543,443.50 $79,637,031.90 44.1%
0.90 -$58,206,766.23 $21,217,387.24 $29,778,839.29 $29,778,839.29 $29,778,839.29 $75,552,459.22 $79,517,702.73 44%
1.00 -$58,330,460.23 $21,216,850.79 $29,778,302.84 $29,778,302.84 $29,778,302.84 $75,561,471.17 $79,398,127.92 44%
1.10 -$58,454,368.90 $21,216,305.53 $29,777,757.58 $29,777,757.58 $29,777,757.58 $75,570,479.34 $79,278,307.47 43.8%
1.20 -$58,578,492.23 $21,215,751.47 $29,777,203.52 $29,777,203.52 $29,777,203.52 $75,579,483.74 $79,158,241.37 43.7%
1.30 -$58,702,830.23 $21,215,188.60 $29,776,640.65 $29,776,640.65 $29,776,640.65 $75,588,484.37 $79,037,929.64 43.6%
1.40
1.50
1.60
 Evaluación Financiera
FNF (MMUS$ de 0) Rentabilidad

0 1 2 3 4 5 VPN TD,0 TIR

β
0.80 -$38,885,121.61 $4,548,953.05 $4,828,953.05 $5,108,953.05 $5,388,953.05 $62,850,552.99 $17,963,929.35 19%
0.90 -$39,007,790.92 $4,555,267.22 $4,835,267.22 $5,115,267.22 $5,395,267.22 $62,865,286.06 $17,871,291.66 19.2%
1.00 -$39,115,450.45 $4,550,324.05 $4,830,324.05 $5,110,324.05 $5,390,324.05 $62,853,752.00 $17,740,121.32 19.1%
1.10 -$39,253,129.54 $4,567,895.56 $4,847,895.56 $5,127,895.56 $5,407,895.56 $62,894,752.18 $17,686,016.28 19.1%
1.20 -$39,375,798.86 $4,574,209.73 $4,854,209.73 $5,134,209.73 $5,414,209.73 $62,909,485.25 $17,593,378.59 19.0%
1.30 -$39,498,468.17 $4,580,523.90 $4,860,523.90 $5,140,523.90 $5,420,523.90 $62,924,218.31 $17,500,740.90 18.9%
1.40
1.50
1.60
3.2 Sensibilidad de precio de materia prima
Evaluación Económica
FNF (MMUS$ de 0) Rentabilidad
β 0 1 2 3 4 5 VPN TD,0 TIR
0.80
0.90 $ -54,510,360.7 $ 27,864,500.6 $ 36,425,952.7 $ 36,425,952.7 $ 36,425,952.7 $ 78,389,021.4 $ 106,592,464.4 58.9%
1.00 $ -58,315,450.5 $ 21,205,593.5 $ 29,767,045.5 $ 29,767,045.5 $ 29,767,045.5 $ 75,535,204.1 $ 79,359,595.3 44%
1.10 $ -62,120,540.3 $ 14,546,686.3 $ 23,108,138.4 $ 23,108,138.4 $ 23,108,138.4 $ 72,681,386.7 $ 52,126,726.1 30.6%
1.20 $ -65,925,630.1 $ 7,887,779.2 $ 16,449,231.2 $ 16,449,231.2 $ 16,449,231.2 $ 69,827,569.4 $ 24,893,857.0 18.8%
1.30 $ -69,730,719.9 $ 1,228,872.0 $ 9,790,324.1 $ 9,790,324.1 $ 9,790,324.1 $ 66,973,752.0 $ -2,339,012.1 8.1%
1.40 $ -73,535,809.7 $ -5,430,035.2 $ 3,131,416.9 $ 3,131,416.9 $ 3,131,416.9 $ 64,119,934.7 $ -29,571,881.2 -1.5%
1.50 $ -77,340,899.5 $ -12,088,942.3 $ -3,527,490.3 $ -3,527,490.3 $ -3,527,490.3 $ 61,266,117.3 $ -56,804,750.4 -10.3%
1.60 $ -81,145,989.3 $ -18,747,849.5 $ -10,186,397.4 $ -10,186,397.4 $ -10,186,397.4 $ 58,412,300.0 $ -84,037,619.5 -18.4%
 Evaluación Financiera
FNF (MMUS$ de 0) Rentabilidad
β 0 1 2 3 4 5 VPN TD,0 TIR
0.80
0.90 -$35,310,360.65 $11,209,231.20 $11,489,231.20 $11,769,231.20 $12,049,231.20 $65,707,569.35 $44,972,990.44 37.7%
1.00 -$39,115,450.45 $4,550,324.05 $4,830,324.05 $5,110,324.05 $5,390,324.05 $62,853,752.00 $17,740,121.32 19.1%
1.10 -$42,920,540.25 -$2,108,583.10 -$1,828,583.10 -$1,548,583.10 -$1,268,583.10 $59,999,934.65 -$9,492,747.81 4.1%
1.20 -$46,725,630.05 -$8,767,490.25 -$8,487,490.25 -$8,207,490.25 -$7,927,490.25 $57,146,117.30 -$36,725,616.93 -8.3%
1.30 -$50,530,719.85 -$15,426,397.40 -$15,146,397.40 -$14,866,397.40 -$14,586,397.40 $54,292,299.95 -$63,958,486.06 -18.8%
1.40 -$54,335,809.66 -$22,085,304.55 -$21,805,304.55 -$21,525,304.55 -$21,245,304.55 $51,438,482.60 -$91,191,355.18 -27.8%
1.50 -$58,140,899.46 -$28,744,211.71 -$28,464,211.71 -$28,184,211.71 -$27,904,211.71 $48,584,665.25 -$118,424,224.31 -35.6%
1.60 -$61,945,989.26 -$35,403,118.86 -$35,123,118.86 -$34,843,118.86 -$34,563,118.86 $45,730,847.90 -$145,657,093.43 -42.6%
3.3 Sensibilidad del producto
Evaluación Económica
FNF (MMUS$ de 0) Rentabilidad
β 0 1 2 3 4 5 VPN TD,0 TIR
0.80
0.90 -$58,315,450.45 $10,238,590.24 $18,800,042.29 $18,800,042.29 $18,800,042.29 $64,568,200.84$36,701,777.37 25.2%
1.00 -$58,315,450.45 $21,205,593.45 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $75,535,204.06 $79,359,595.27 44%
1.10 -$58,315,450.45 $32,172,596.67 $40,734,048.72 $40,734,048.72 $40,734,048.72 $86,502,207.27 $122,017,413.17 62.4%
1.20 -$58,315,450.45 $43,139,599.88 $51,701,051.93 $51,701,051.93 $51,701,051.93 $97,469,210.48 $164,675,231.07 80.8%
1.30 -$58,315,450.45 $54,106,603.09 $62,668,055.14 $62,668,055.14 $62,668,055.14 $108,436,213.70 $207,333,048.98 99.2%
1.40
1.50
1.60
 Evaluación Financiera
FNF (MMUS$ de 0) Rentabilidad
β 0 1 2 3 4 5 VPN TD,0 TIR
0.80
0.90 -$39,115,450.45 -$6,416,679.16 -$6,136,679.16 -$5,856,679.16 -$5,576,679.16 $51,886,748.79 -$24,917,696.58 -4.7%
1.00 -$39,115,450.45 $4,550,324.05 $4,830,324.05 $5,110,324.05 $5,390,324.05 $62,853,752.00 $17,740,121.32 19.1%
1.10 -$39,115,450.45 $15,517,327.26 $15,797,327.26 $16,077,327.26 $16,357,327.26 $73,820,755.22 $60,397,939.22 44.5%
1.20 -$39,115,450.45 $26,484,330.48 $26,764,330.48 $27,044,330.48 $27,324,330.48 $84,787,758.43 $103,055,757.13 70.9%
1.30 -$39,115,450.45 $37,451,333.69 $37,731,333.69 $38,011,333.69 $38,291,333.69 $95,754,761.64 $145,713,575.03 97.9%
1.40
1.50
1.60
3.4 Sensibilidad de costos variables

Evaluación Económica
FNF (MMUS$ de 0) Rentabilidad
β 0 1 2 3 4 5 VPN TD,0 TIR
0.80 -$56,032,396.57 $22,917,883.86 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $75,535,204.06 $83,213,557.78 47.1%
0.90 -$57,173,923.51 $22,061,738.66 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $75,535,204.06 $81,286,576.53 45.4%
1.00 -$58,315,450.45 $21,205,593.45 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $75,535,204.06 $79,359,595.27 44%
1.10 -$59,456,977.39 $20,349,448.25 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $75,535,204.06 $77,432,614.01 42.4%
1.20 -$60,598,504.33 $19,493,303.04 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $75,535,204.06 $75,505,632.76 40.9%
1.30 -$61,740,031.27 $18,637,157.84 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $29,767,045.50 $75,535,204.06 $73,578,651.50 39.5%
1.40
1.50
1.60
 Evaluación Financiera
FNF (MMUS$ de 0) Rentabilidad
β 0 1 2 3 4 5 VPN TD,0 TIR
0.80 -$36,860,068.23 $8,566,422.09 $8,846,422.09 $9,126,422.09 $9,406,422.09 $64,614,467.82 $34,150,880.65 29.8%
0.90 -$38,001,595.17 $6,568,749.94 $6,848,749.94 $7,128,749.94 $7,408,749.94 $63,758,322.62 $25,981,019.91 24.3%
1.00 -$39,115,450.45 $4,550,324.05 $4,830,324.05 $5,110,324.05 $5,390,324.05 $62,853,752.00 $17,740,121.32 19.1%
1.10 -$40,284,649.05 $2,573,405.65 $2,853,405.65 $3,133,405.65 $3,413,405.65 $62,046,032.21 $9,641,298.44 14.3%
1.20 -$41,426,175.99 $575,733.51 $855,733.51 $1,135,733.51 $1,415,733.51 $61,189,887.00 $1,471,437.70 9.8%
1.30 -$42,567,702.93 -$1,421,938.64 -$1,141,938.64 -$861,938.64 -$581,938.64 $60,333,741.80 -$6,698,423.04 5.5%
1.40
1.50
1.60
Resumen del análisis de sensibilidad

Evaluación Económica
VPN TD,0

Inversión Precio de Materia Prima Precio del Producto Costos variables

β
0.80 $79,324,076.34 $83,213,557.78
0.90 $79,341,835.81 $106,592,464.39 $36,701,777.37 $81,286,576.53
1.00 $79,359,595.27 $79,359,595.27 $79,359,595.27 $79,359,595.27
1.10 $79,377,354.73 $52,126,726.14 $122,017,413.17 $77,432,614.01
1.20 $79,395,114.20 $24,893,857.02 $164,675,231.07 $75,505,632.76
1.30 $79,412,873.66 -$2,339,012.11 $207,333,048.98 $73,578,651.50
1.40 -$29,571,881.23
1.50 -$56,804,750.36
1.60 -$84,037,619.48

Evaluación Financiera
VPN TD,0

Inversión Precio de Materia Prima Precio del Producto Costos variables

β
0.80 $17,704,602.39 $34,150,880.65
0.90 $17,722,361.86 $44,972,990.44 -$24,917,696.58 $25,981,019.91
1.00 $17,740,121.32 $17,740,121.32 $17,740,121.32 $17,740,121.32
1.10 $17,757,880.78 -$9,492,747.81 $60,397,939.22 $9,641,298.44
1.20 $17,775,640.25 -$36,725,616.93 $103,055,757.13 $1,471,437.70
1.30 $17,793,399.71 -$63,958,486.06 $145,713,575.03 -$6,698,423.04
1.40 -$91,191,355.18
1.50 -$118,424,224.31
1.60 -$145,657,093.43

En ambas evaluaciones hay un total de 50 puntos y 12 puntos con valores negativos de

VPN.

Total puntos Puntos negativos

Eval. Economica 25 4
Eval. Financiero 25 8

Indicador de probabilidad de rentabilidad de nuestro proyecto

δeconomico 16%
δfinanciero 32%
4.- GRAFICA DE SENSIBILIDAD
Evaluación económica

$190.00
MILLIONS

$140.00
$90.00
$40.00
-$10.00
-$60.000 . 8 0 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00
-$110.00
-$160.00
-$210.00
-$260.00

inversion precio de materia prima

precio de producto costo de variables

Evaluación Financiera
MILLIONS

$140.00

$40.00

-$60.000 . 8 0 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00

-$160.00

-$260.00
inversion precio de materia prima
precio de producto costo de variables

5.- CONCLUSIONES
 El proyecto es más sensible a las variables precio del producto y precio
de materia prima, es mas estas variables podrían hacer que el proyecto
no sea rentable.
 Nuestro indicador de probabilidad de rentabilidad de nuestro proyecto con
evaluación económico y financiero fueron 16% y 32% respectivamente
los cual nos indican que la evaluación económica es más rentable que la
financiera.