U.S.

push to upgrade the South China Sea can be

consumed in China for more strategic resources
October 14, 2010 0 Comments

U.S. push to upgrade the South China Sea can be consumed in China for more
strategic resources

Core Tip: Analysts believe that the U.S. actively involved in the South China Sea,
with the eastward shift of U.S. strategic center of gravity is the same strain. Worrying
situation in the United States to create the way the South China Sea, from the inside
out to promote the internationalization of the South China Sea, the purpose is to
enable China to put more resources into solving the strategic South China Sea up to
curb the rise of China.

October 11th, State Councilor and Defense Minister General Liang meeting with U.S.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates

International Online October 14 October 12 report, the Vietnamese capital Hanoi has
attracted world's attention. Vietnam in ASEAN's rotating presidency, under the
proposal, the first expansion of the ASEAN Defence Minister Meeting held
here.Gathered at the meeting from the 10 ASEAN countries and Australia, China,
India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the United States secretary of
defense dialogue 8.

The conference is about the expansion of defense cooperation, the ASEAN member
countries a security forum. However, the focus of the outside world is clearly more
than that. As Chinese State Councilor and Defense Minister Liang Guanglie with U.S.
Defense Secretary Robert Gates met in Vietnam, the meeting was described as a thaw
of Sino-US military relations, "test the water." South China Sea issue in the current
context of constant noise, whether the United States and the countries at the meeting
to carry out some "little tricks" also attracted a lot of outside speculation.

U.S. and Russian officials for the first time participants

Host Vietnam has announced that the enlarged meeting of ASEAN defense ministers
of ASEAN member countries will surely unity, unity, and to ensure regional peace,
stability and commitment to expand defense cooperation, the ASEAN meeting, held
the highest marks the beginning of the Defense Security Cooperation
Mechanism . ASEAN cooperation in five priority areas including maritime security,
peacekeeping, military medical cooperation, counterterrorism, humanitarian
assistance and disaster reduction.

According to the agenda of the pre-announced, Vietnamese Defense Minister Feng

Guangqing keynote speaker will be involved in national defense and military
cooperation on the progress of ASEAN, the ASEAN Political Security Community
objectives and so on. The meeting will also through various documents, including the
first meeting of the Joint Declaration of ASEAN defense ministers. The meeting will
be Defense Senior Officials Group meeting. In the framework of the Conference,
China, United States, Japan, India, Korea and other military delegation will pay an
official visit to Vietnam.

Vietnamese Ministry of Defense officials said the meeting will not involve specific
issues, only attention and political commitment, in particular, the content is open for
future cooperation. But in the published security policies, countries can find the same
point in a future cooperation in order to strengthen the spirit to put forward their
common concerns.

Concern that the United States and Russia will be the first to dialogue partners as part
of the 10 +8 defense minister meetings. This is the second meeting of ASEAN
Foreign Ministers in July this year, decided to officially invite the U.S. and Russia "to
appropriate arrangements and time" to join the East Asia Summit, the two military
powers approached another substantive performance of the ASEAN. Analysts believe
that the United States and Russia will enable ASEAN countries to join the strategic
security situation has undergone subtle changes.

U.S. pushing to upgrade the South China Sea

Department of Defense pre-Vietnam, said the defense minister meeting will not deal
with specific issues, including the South China Sea issue. But some experts believe
that such a regional security forum like the United States an opportunity to stir the
South China Sea, the countries concerned will also prepare could not make their own
"concern."

Hao Zheng Phoenix commentators believe that the U.S. Secretary of State in July of
this year Hillary Clinton was held in Hanoi on the declaration of the ASEAN
Regional Forum, "South China Sea issue between the U.S. national interest,"
suggested that the U.S. intends to help solve the South China Sea dispute. This
argument was held in September of the ASEAN - U.S. summit repeat again by
Obama. "So, the United States this is likely old tricks."

Experts believe that the meeting of ASEAN defense ministers meeting is a safe, and
the South China Sea also involves security, so do not rule out the countries to the
South China Sea moved to this table, want the U.S. to back their words. The United
States is willing to play such a role of mediator, on the one hand to the ASEAN
countries and China to discuss the South China Sea when Yaoban harder, on the other
hand to show it in the Asia-Pacific region's "leading role."

Analysts pointed out that since the announcement "to return to Southeast Asia", the
United States is at every step, to promote the internationalization of the South China
Sea. The first half of this year, the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Asia-Pacific
Affairs visited Campbell in Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and other Southeast Asian
countries, through a reporter's question about the machine on the South China Sea, the
U.S. position on the issue, saying the want to maintain freedom of navigation in the
South China Sea, but also want sovereignty over the South China Sea dispute should
be multilateral negotiations.
This year in July, U.S. Secretary of State at the ASEAN Regional Forum, Clinton said
the United States is willing to promote the spirit of ASEAN and China in 2002
"issued by the DOC," reached the spirit of initiative and confidence-building
measures. In fact, her remarks to the South China Sea, "ASEAN" of leaving a primer,
because the "Declaration" China and ASEAN member countries signed between the
Government, rather than between China and the ASEAN Declaration, the
concept substitution is no doubt in order to highlight the issue in the South China Sea
between China and ASEAN bilateral situation. October 4, U.S. Ambassador to the
Philippines, said Harry Thomas, the U.S. is willing to assist in the drafting of a legally
binding "code of conduct," ASEAN and China to resolve the sovereignty dispute in
the South China Sea. This means that the level of U.S. involvement in the South
China Sea has increased by one step.

Analysts believe that the U.S. actively involved in the South China Sea, with the
eastward shift of U.S. strategic center of gravity is the same strain. Recently, the
United States sent troops to help root out rebels in the Philippines, continue to the
Philippines as a base to expand military influence in Southeast Asia, the intention
clear. In addition, the opportunity of the Sino-Japanese dispute over the Diaoyu
Islands, the United States promised to strengthen the Japan-US Youxiang Japan
military alliance, the U.S. military presence in Asia is even more "well-
founded." Worrying situation in the United States to create the way the South China
Sea, from the inside out to promote the internationalization of the South China Sea,
the purpose is to enable China to put more resources into solving the strategic South
China Sea up to curb the rise of China.

Sino-US military exchanges fear into a new obstacle to the South China Sea

The expansion of ASEAN defense ministers meeting, China and the U.S. Secretary of
Defense will take the meeting of the machine, hold bilateral talks, marking the
beginning of this year was interrupted by U.S. arms sales to Taiwan relations China-
US military exchanges press the "reset button" .

Throughout the history of Sino-US bilateral military exchanges, you can use the
"good times and bad" to describe. June 5, 1989 President Bush declared sanctions on
China, the U.S. military announced that interrupt high-level military exchanges with
China, and break 5 years, did not resume until 1994. This year in January, the Obama
government approved plans 6.4 billion arms sales to Taiwan, the Chinese side
immediately announced the suspension of visits between the two armed forces
program. The US-ROK cooperation in "days of the ship incident", the joint military
exercise in the Yellow Sea, lie in tense Sino-US military relations.

Recently, the U.S., "Qiao Bao" to comment on the article said, due to recent friction
in the South China Sea, South China Sea has become another focus of U.S. defense
and difficult to communicate. The future of Sino-US military relations can develop
smoothly, mainly to see whether the United States caution, do not take the initiative to
stir up trouble.

The article said that China and the U.S. there is no sovereignty disputes in the South
China Sea, because of the freedom of navigation on the right and fight the final
analysis because of high-profile involvement of the United States by China and the
countries deal with the dispute through bilateral diplomacy, will rise to the issue of
multilateral international occasions. Obama in September at the ASEAN Summit and
ASEAN leaders issued a joint statement on the South China Sea has become more
low-key, this is a wise choice. The United States should carefully avoid the core
interest of China to prevent further deterioration of Sino-US military relations.

South China Sea, the United States would like to take checks and
balances involved in the China-ASEAN powers do not want to
conflict

Posted by admin

2010-09-27 09:30:18

use U.S. 24, the gap with the United Nations General Assembly held its second
session of the ASEAN, the ASEAN - U.S. summit, which was "The Wall Street
Journal" and other U.S. media as a "join the United States of ASEAN in Asia to
counterbalance China's influence," the latest move.

from the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last month announced a high-profile
involvement in Vietnam after the South China Sea, South China Sea in the eyes of
world public opinion has become the great horn-US game field. Southeast Asian
countries and the U.S. media claimed that "the same counter China" is different from
the latter position appears to be much more low-key.

Indonesia's president to not attend the summit in New York; Singapore Prime
Minister Lee Hsien Loong expressed concern that "if the United States and friction,
we, the Asian countries will become part of the problem"; and China on the dispute in
the South China Sea are more has been seen as America's closest allies in Southeast
Asia, the Philippines has also said publicly that no U.S. involvement in the South
China Sea. Canadian "Globe and Mail," commented that, while eager to ensure the
security of the United States, while eager to boost the prosperity of China, Southeast
Asia, "is torn apart."

United States, "Philadelphia horn" magazine website article is that China's "traditional
sphere of influence the United States" imposed by the economic influence in
Southeast Asia to the U.S. attitude appears to promote swing, countries such as
Philippines, China, attempts to new economic giant and "American aboard the
economy sinking ship" to seek a new balance between.

ASEAN to the United States want?

occurs when a region when the undisputed dominant force, within their sphere of
influence in the country sooner or later will realize that an alliance is the most
consistent with its own interests. However, if faced with two competing for the big
country, how would they consider it? United States, "Philadelphia horn" magazine has
made such a question.
Hillary Clinton in July from the U.S. Secretary of State high-profile talk about the
South China Sea in Vietnam, the United States has long been suspected to use to win
over the South China Sea as the greatest weight to counterbalance China ASEAN. 24,
United States, the gap by the UN General Assembly held the second summit with
ASEAN, and the theme is still the South China Sea. In addition, the United States in
enhancing relations with ASEAN are not many other commitments. "Philadelphia
horn," commented that some Southeast Asian countries may think that Washington's
commitment is not much of Southeast Asia, and China has become the Southeast
Asian energy, agriculture and infrastructure, the biggest supplier of funds, so both
would like to reassure Southeast Asian countries, the rapid development of China,
economic forces, while U.S. allies want to seek security guarantees.

Barack Obama as the kingdom of childhood lived in Indonesia has been looking
forward to a great American, Barack Obama had three invitations to visit Indonesia,
but have been delayed for various reasons Obama. 24, arrived in New York for the
UN General Assembly President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of Indonesia to the
ground state affairs did not attend the summit peak. Indonesia, "Jakarta Post" editorial
questioned the 24th session of the "U.S. - ASEAN Summit," whether called "summit."
The editorial said that if Obama really attaches importance to ASEAN in its foreign
policy position and role, the United States should consider a good time and place, the
summit held in Washington, rather than the gap in the UN General Assembly held in
New York. U.S. leaders should be held a grand press conference at the White House
to pass the American people the importance of ASEAN to U.S. interests, but only feel
the summit, the importance of ASEAN to the United States limited to a small part of
Washington's mouth. For the United States is likely to issue in the South China Sea
with ASEAN issued a joint statement, "The Jakarta Post," a comment the other day to
call themselves "outsiders dispute," adding that the issue, Indonesia's interests are: the
dispute should not affect regional stability.

within ASEAN, Singapore has always supported "to the U.S. balance China." Lee
Kuan Yew in Singapore last year in the United States issued a "check and balance
China," remarks have caused controversy. Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao," 24, citing
Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong as saying, "The United States continues
as the regional geo-political stage one, is also very important." Lee also called for
more United States to strengthen economic links with ASEAN. He said, "If the United
States and some friction between China, or other problems, when we have these Asian
countries will become part of the problem, and we are the United States as rivals,
competitors and the possibility of the threat will be greatly enhanced . But if there is
investment in the United States, have a business, the United States will take us as a
friend and part of the solution, not part of the problem. "

largest TV abs-cbnnews23 Philippines said Wednesday that some ASEAN

Washington tried to restore their country for the old influence in Asia is not so
enthusiastic, like Thailand, Cambodia and other countries "do not really want to see
any confrontation between China and the United States, because once this happens,
they may have to choose the position This is the reluctant they do. "

ASEAN did not want to buffer the United States

Recently, many ASEAN countries are worried about the U.S. involvement in the
dispute, although American great concern to these countries an excuse for the South
China Sea. Thailand's "public opinion newspaper," said the investment in ASEAN in
recent years, China is the largest in ASEAN has a solid foundation. Game face of the
United States and Southeast Asian countries is unlikely one-sided attitude of the
United States to intervene too much in the South China Sea, Southeast Asian
countries have also been vigilant. Malaysia "Nanyang Siang Pau," said, "the United
States in the South China Sea is welcome, but not too happily in Washington to
intervene in regional affairs, it would only cause trouble, rather than solve the
problem." Thailand's "Manager Daily" claimed that China is the collapse of the
United States against China-ASEAN joint "vertical operation."

guess a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University in Thailand, said Watts, the

South China Sea in China's attitude toward neighboring countries has been in the
conflict, which side would like to benefit from the rise of China, and China's
economic ties will help to Asian century dream into reality; side and fears that China
is too powerful forces outside the region want to balance China. Nevertheless, the
majority of China's cooperation with Southeast Asian countries do not want to conflict
with China.

Indonesia, "Jakarta Post," a recent review may reflect a cautious attitude many
ASEAN countries. Reported that "Indonesia should avoid fighting in the United States
and the former acting as a buffer, because it would damage the relationship between
Jakarta and Beijing, both geographically and economically, we are now closer to
China than with the United States. And refused to support the United States compared
to damage relations with China more harmful to us. "

Philippines is considered to be most affected by the American Association of

Southeast Asian countries. While the Philippines has some people that there is no
domestic support for the Philippines, the United States can not protect their interests
in the South China Sea, but in recent years, the voices against the U.S. involvement
there from time to time. Earlier, Philippine Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo early
August was for Hillary Clinton's remarks about the U.S. involvement in the South
China Sea, said the South China Sea issue is an issue between ASEAN and China,
and is limited to ASEAN and China, not the United States or any other third party
intervention. This attitude broke the Southeast Asian countries "have backward
American" impression. Manila, a university student Sai Xiluo "Global Times"
reporter, said: "The Philippines and China have a lot of economic cooperation, but we
also have territorial disputes with China, it is not biased towards China, but should
learn from Singapore and Thailand, China and the U.S. walk between. "

ASEAN security dependence on the United States is still great

village president for Southeast Asian Studies, Xiamen University, received land in
the" Global Times "reporter, said The United States is now the Na Nanhai problem
when a card to play, in order to contain China, the Chinese strategic interests in other
international concessions. In fact, very clear in Southeast Asia, the United States in
the South China Sea and China will not "dead top", ASEAN is also absolutely no
need at this point to his "bundling" the body in the United States. Land also said
Zhuang, ASEAN move closer to such a position does not mean that China is more,
the contrast remains in the field of military security close ties with the United States.
A long-term Chinese scholars living in the Philippines, told reporters that the
Philippines is in the hope that the United States concerned about the South China Sea,
and South China Sea and Spratly islands and reefs in terms of defense tried to
persuade the U.S. to provide military assistance to the Philippines and security.
Previously, the Philippines chief of staff met with U.S. Pacific Commander in
Kaduodaiwei Robert Willard had said that the Philippines military is very weak, due
to planes and ships are too old, the Philippines, the military capabilities in the
disputed area "is almost Ignore. "

In fact, many Southeast Asian countries and the United States have been working
more in the military. Back in World War II, the United States in the Philippines,
Vietnam, and has a number of military bases, the main purpose is to prevent the
communist forces in the south, containment, containment of China. With the Vietnam
War, especially the "cold war" ended, Southeast Asian countries increased national
sentiment, the U.S. military bases in Southeast Asia have been shut down in 1992, the
U.S. military was forced to shut down military bases in the Philippines, the
withdrawal of all troops. In 2001, the United States, "Kitty Hawk" aircraft carrier, led
a number of the main ship, slowly into Singapore's Changi Naval Base. This is the
U.S. Navy since the withdrawal from Subic Naval Base, the first U.S. aircraft carrier
Zhubo a naval base in Southeast Asia. Seventh Fleet stationed in the Asia-Pacific and
the Fifth Fleet stationed in the Middle East can look after each other. "9.11" incident,
the United States a terrorist organization by the name of combating the southern
Philippines to achieve the military to return to the Philippines, U.S. troops deployed in
Mindanao in addition to more than 500 joint special operations forces, but every year
through the "shoulder to shoulder", "Card Flat "and other joint military exercise cycle
to send troops to the Philippines thousands of people, the U.S. nuclear-powered
aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, also visited the Philippines often use the exercise
area. This year in July, after 12 years of suspension, the United States announced the
resumption of military ties with Indonesia's special forces.

also been advocated by some U.S. forces to strengthen military cooperation with
Southeast Asian countries against China. "Philippine Star" recently reported that the
former commander of U.S. Pacific Fleet, said James Lyons, the United States should
consider lending to the Philippines, a F-16 squadrons and two equipped with
supersonic training aircraft and ballistic missile frigate Philippine territorial waters in
order to strengthen defense capabilities. He also said, "Since Obama has been in the
South China Sea issue a direct challenge to China, the United States should follow the
example of the US-Philippine" Mutual Defense Treaty ", and other ASEAN countries
also signed a similar treaty."

multilateral and bilateral territorial issues battle

Although the Southeast Asian countries on the controversial U.S. intervention in the
South China Sea, but the South China Sea disputes with China in bilateral dialogue on
the stand is different from some Southeast Asian countries want to raise this issue
within the whole of ASEAN, to ASEAN and China negotiated with one voice.
Philippine Deputy Foreign Minister Basilio said earlier that the 10 ASEAN member
countries should establish the South China Sea, "the official code of conduct" in order
to keep the controversial waters of the island and tensions. Zhuang land on the
"Global Times" said that in practice such a "Code of Conduct" is wanted by the South
China Sea into a multilateral dialogue to bilateral dialogue, thereby increasing the
conditions of confrontation with China.

within ASEAN, between the many members there are also contradictions in ocean
issues. August of this year, Indonesia and Malaysia sudden warming sea border
dispute. Demonstrations in Indonesia, keep domestic anti-horse, some demonstrators
also threw to the Embassy of horse manure in India, the burning of Ma Guoguo flag
and threatened to shave after the expulsion of horse people. In fact, between the two
countries in recent decades because of sea border issues often unclear in contradiction
and friction. 1969, India and Malaysia on Sipadan Island in maritime conflict Ligitan
sovereignty, territorial issues between the two countries has become an extremely
sensitive issue. Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao," said Indonesia and Malaysia is a brother
country, it is proposed, said the dispute should be resolved by the International, but
Indonesia's Foreign Minister Marty insisted that Indonesia would not put the dispute
to the International court.

village land on the "Global Times" reporter, said some Western media always
emphasized that China and ASEAN countries in the South China Sea dispute on the
issue, but then for decades between the ASEAN countries have not solved territorial
disputes turn a blind eye. In fact, these disputes "never stop too." Such as Vietnam,
recently stated publicly that the right of the territorial waters of the South China Sea is
essentially a direct neural stimulation of the Philippines, Vietnam, the Philippines
worried about the "expansionist ambitions", Vietnam is also considered a move
touched Malaysia, Brunei's interests.

village land that most countries in the world, the territorial disputes are resolved
through bilateral efforts, the territorial dispute between Southeast Asian countries also
shows that multilateral intervention does not actually help solve problems. 60s of last
century, two small islands between Malaysia and Indonesia due to the Sovereignty of
"turn", and finally determined by the International Tribunal for the sovereignty of two
islands owned by Malaysia. But this failed to resolve the contradiction between the
two ethnic hatred and historical memory has not faded.

village land that the recent ASEAN countries oppose U.S. involvement in the South
China Sea, Vietnam, senior Defense Department official to visit Beijing said publicly
that "Vietnam and the United States will not form a military alliance," This is because
either the Vietnamese or Philippine high-rise are well aware, the ASEAN countries
and China, "the overall situation of economic and trade cooperation," is much more
important than "the South China Sea dispute on the issue."

Ateneo de Manila University expert on international issues Lin Zhicong "Global

Times" reporter that even the South China Sea to the development of new code of
conduct also requires recognition of the Chinese side, in the present circumstances,
especially in China the feeling of being part of the external forces besieged the case of
United, China is difficult to accept such a proposal. (Newspaper in the Philippines,
Thailand, Indonesia, in a press reporter Impregnated Sunguang Yong Zhang Hui Chen
Wei Lai)

ASEAN DMM+
Vietnam to host 1 st ASEAN Defense Minister Plus meeting, People’s Daily, July 29

Vietnam will host the first ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting Plus (ADMM-Plus) in
the capital city Hanoi on Oct. 12 this year, said Vietnamese Deputy Minister of
Defense Nguyen Chi Vinh here at a press conference on Thursday.

The meeting is expected to draw defense ministers from member countries of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and eight ASEAN dialogue
partners including Australia, China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea, New
Zealand, Russia and the United States, and representatives from the ASEAN
Secretariat, said Vinh.

Vinh said that the meeting marks a new development in the cooperation between
ASEAN and its dialogue partners to deal with increasingly complicated and
transnational security issues. It is aimed at building trust and confidence among
participating countries.

The conference takes place in the context that peace and development has become a
tendency and cross-border non-traditional challenges are emerging which a single
country cannot solve, he said.

During the upcoming meeting, the defense ministers are expected to discuss a variety
of issues including humanitarian aid, disaster relief, maritime security, counter-
terrorism, and peace- keeping operations.

South China Sea

Concerned about China’s rise, Southeast Asian nations build up militaries,

Washington Post, August 9

The nations of Southeast Asia are building up their militaries, buying submarines and
jet fighters at a record pace and edging closer strategically to the United States as a
hedge against China's rise and its claims to all of the South China Sea.

Weapons acquisitions in the region almost doubled from 2005 to 2009 compared with
the five preceding years, according to data released by the Stockholm International
Peace Research Institute this year.

"There is a threat perception among some of the countries in Southeast Asia," said
Siemon Wezeman, senior fellow at the institute. "China is an issue there."

The buying spree is set to continue, with reports that Vietnam has agreed to pay $2.4
billion for six Russian Kilo-class submarines and a dozen Su-30MKK jet fighters
equipped for maritime warfare. This is in addition to Australia's stated commitment to
buy or build nine more submarines and bolster its air force with 100 U.S.-built F-35s.
Malaysia has also paid more than $1 billion for two diesel submarines from France ,
and Indonesia has recently announced that it, too, will acquire new submarines.

Concerns in Southeast Asia about China's rise were on display in Hanoi in mid-July
during a regional security forum that included the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, the United States, China and other Asian powers. During the meeting,
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton for the first time effectively rejected
China's claims to sovereignty over the whole 1.3 million-square-mile sea. Eleven
other nations, led by Vietnam, backed the United States, leaving Chinese foreign
minister Yang Jiechi noticeably shaken by the offensive, diplomats present said.

The Great Game for the Spratlys: Vietnam Takes Control, Asia Sentinel, August 6

Vietnam has been remarkably successful in getting the South China Sea issue back
onto the international agenda, in the process underscoring its new ties with the United
States and asserting Hanoi's leadership of Asean on this issue.

China is furious but its reaction, seemingly driven by President Hu and the People's
Liberation Army rather than the foreign ministry in strongly re-asserting China's
claims to the whole sea, has brought further attention to the issue. It is being watched
closely by Japan, and Russia and India are continuing to strengthen their relations
with Vietnam partly with the sea issue and navigation rights in mind.

However, the Southeast Asian countries in dispute with China would be in a very
much stronger position to confront China's claims if they were able to resolve their
own conflicting claims or at least engage in the joint exploitation to which they are in
theory pledged. There is scant sign to date that they are going in that direction.

Essentially there are two rather separate issues in the dispute. The first, which
involves only the littoral countries China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and
Brunei (for these purposes Taiwan's claims are the same as China's).

The second is about freedom of navigation. That involves all major nations for whom
the waterway is crucial for their shipping, including nearby countries like Indonesia as
well as Japan, the US, etc. As China claims dominion over the entire sea as well as its
various islands and rocks, acceptance of its claim would turn the sea into a Chinese
lake to which others could only have access with China's consent even though China
and Taiwan between them own only about 20 the sea's coastline.

Indonesia additionally has a separate issue. Although China's claims do not impinge
on any of its land waters, they come so close to the Natuna gas field that issues of
ownership of gas deposits could become disputed, as well as seabed rights to the
northeast of the Natuna field.

Offshore oil and gas is important for the Southeast Asian states but much less so for
China, for whom the region's reserves are assumed to be relatively small compared to
its needs. Likewise fishing is of some interest to all the nations but over-fishing means
this is less and less significant. China's over-riding interest is strategic.

Of the various disputed groups, the Paracels, which lie due east of Danang, are only
claimed by Vietnam and China – which forcibly occupied them in the dying days of
the South Vietnam regime. Only China and the Philippines dispute the Scarborough
shoal and Macclesfield bank.

It is the Spratly group which is the main bone of contention, with all claimants
overlapping and where the non-Chinese ones need to find some common ground.
Vietnam claims all the Spratlys by right of historical occupation even though most of
them lie closer to the Philippine and Malaysian coasts.(China's claims are similarly
based on history, real or imagined) The Philippines claims most but not all on a
mixture of principles – the archipelago principle, continental shelf, and occupation of
empty territory. The Malaysian and Brunei claims are based on the continental shelf
principle – the islands lie in seabed of less than 200 meters in depth extending from
their coastline.

As of now Vietnam has a presence on about 20, China about nine, the Philippines
about eight, Malaysia three and Taiwan just on1 of the islands, rocks and shoals. With
such conflicting bases for their claims, as well as the claims themselves, it will be
extraordinarily difficult for the non-Chinese nations to get together. Nationalist
sentiment runs against abandoning any claims. Seemingly meaningless rocks become
national symbols. Nor does it seem likely that they would agree to submit to
international arbitration rulings in the way that Malaysia settled disputes with
Indonesia and Singapore.

But they could surely agree – and in this be joined by Indonesia and maybe Singapore
– in asserting both freedom of navigation and the principle that claims to specific
islands do not include claims to 200-mile economic zones.

The navigation issue is doubly important because the main shipping channels, through
which pass a major portion of global sea trade -- run to the north of the Spratlys, an
area of widely varying depths and many shoals. The islands themselves are of
economic value and only the continental shelves appear to offer oil and gas prospects.

On the question of history the non-Chinese could also form a common front – at least
if they were better informed about their pre-colonial pasts. Vietnam's claims are based
on Vietnamese imperial records. But a much earlier claim can be made for the Cham
empire, based in what is now central Vietnam. The Cham were a Hinduized,
Austronesian (same language family as Malay, Tagalog etc) -speaking people who ran
much of the trade in the south China sea until the 15th century. Vietnam may be
reluctant to make a claim based on a nation it wiped out, but there is abundant
evidence of trading across the southern and central part of this sea long before the
Chinese became involved.

Indeed despite the name given to it by westerners and then translated into Malay and
Tagalog, the South China Sea is more a Malay than a Chinese sea. In the days of the
Cham empire it was known as the Cham Sea. Seafarers from Borneo ran the spice
trade with China while those from Sumatra (the Sri Vijayan empire and others) the
shipping that brought Chinese Buddhist pilgrims to India and Sri Lanka, and reached
the coasts of Africa a thousand years before China's Admiral Zheng He during the
Ming dynasty.

Indeed, if the Asean claimants were to start with a joint study of their history trading
and fishing across the sea, they might have a better grasp of where their interests now
lie.

What lies beneath the South China Sea, The Irrawaddy, June 24
The governments of Southeast Asia, already fertile ground for defense companies,
have embarked on a round of buying submarines, the utility, safety and strategic value
of which looks doubtful. In fact, they may actually increase tensions in the region as
their lurking menace could swiftly turn a naval encounter from an incident into a
crisis.

Singapore started it in 1995 by buying a surplus Swedish navy boat, with a

further three ordered in 1997, perhaps with designs to manufacture them on
license rather than for defense. The first was commissioned in mid-2000 and
further orders have since been made as the original boats have been retired.

Malaysia ordered two new Scorpene-class submarines from the Franco-Spanish

DCNS/ Navantia consortium in 2002, with the first just having arrived in the country
this year.

In late 2009 Vietnam ordered six Kilo-class submarines from a Russian yard, with the
first delivery due by 2012. The governments of Indonesia and Thailand are also both
considering acquiring new submarines.

However, the growing use of unmanned underwater vehicles, in line with the better-
known unmanned aerial 'drones,' is eroding the submarines' raison d'être—particularly
as defense budgets are squeezed and technology offers less costly but comparable
results.

The economic and technical metrics of operating manned submarines make them
among the most expensive weapon in any national arsenal. There are no accurate
figures tabulating the capital and recurring costs of submarine programs in Singapore,
Malaysia and now Vietnam, including bases and crew training. But in order to keep
one submarine operational a minimum of two boats, but preferably three, are needed.
Each boat requires two full crews—plus support personnel and facilities.

Rough figures for the three navies make acquisition costs alone well in excess of
US$3 billion, with combined annual running costs unlikely to fall much below US$1
billion by 2015, to marginally enhance deterrence of an enemy that is unlikely to
materialize.

The cost-benefit value of conventional submarines—against the perceived value of

boats that carry the nuclear deterrence of major powers—is also questionable. Since
the end of World War II, Russia, France, the US, Britain, China and Israel together
have lost at least 17 submarines in peacetime accidents. Only two have been recorded
as being lost in conflicts. Over the same period just three vessels are acknowledged to
have been sunk by submarines—the Indian frigate Khukri during the 1971 war with
Pakistan, the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano by a British boat during the 1982
Falklands conflict and the South Korean corvette Cheonan in an attack by a North
Korean mini-submarine in 2010.
Even as the Southeast Asians embark on their buying spree, many countries are
reducing the size of their submarine fleets—notably Germany—or have scrapped
them altogether, like Denmark. Other European powers are set to cancel or delay new
building programs based on economic and strategic assessments.

The attraction of submarines to defense planners lies in their stealth, flexibility and
deterrence. A conventional diesel-electric submarine armed with torpedoes, mines and
anti-ship missiles and equipped with modern air-independent propulsion systems is a
formidable weapon that the most advanced navies have to respect.

Their principal weakness is their high acquisition and running cost, the demands
placed on an often limited skill base and their vulnerability within confined or shallow
waters. These factors have led most Southeast Asian navies to concentrate their
resources on developing surface forces rather than invest in submarines that offered
doubtful strategic or even tactical benefits.

Indonesia

RI wants to buy US Fighters, Cargo Jets, Jakarta Post, July 1

Indonesia told the US it wants to buy billions of dollars of American-made military

aircraft, in hopes that a US-embargo on military sales to the country may soon be
lifted, a Defense Ministry spokesman says.

“During a bilateral meeting, the Indonesian government expressed its interest to

purchase F-16 and C-130H Hercules [cargo] aircraft to complete its squadrons,”
Defense Ministry spokesman I Wayan Midhio said on Wednesday.

Indonesian Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro and US Secretary of Defense

Robert Gates discussed the potential sale during the Shangri-La defense dialogue in
Singapore last month, Wayan said.

The US welcomed Indonesia’s proposal to buy more US-made military equipment, he

added.

The US also pledged US$15.7 million to Indonesia in 2010 and $20 million in 2011
under the aegis of capacity-building programs to help “modernize” the Indonesian
Military (TNI), Wayan said.

Military aid will be in the form of training and education to be carried out in both
Indonesia and the US, he added. The US offered to sell surplus fighter jets at steeply-
discounted prices to persuade Indonesia to buy, Wayan said.

Indonesia currently has only four operational jet fighters — less than a single
squadron — University of Indonesia’s military expert Andi Widjajanto said. Each
squadron should have eight to 12 planes depending on operational, maintenance and
training plans.

The Air Force has two operational commands in the country’s east and west. Each
command has two bases, which in turn require eight fighter squadrons per base, he
said.

A fifth-generation F-16 jet fighter costs between $120 million and $140 million,
without munitions. A fourth-generation F-16 Falcon fighter costs between $88 million
and $90 million, without munitions, Andi said.

There is a surplus of F-16s on the global arms market due to production overruns by
US defense contractor manufacturer Lockheed Martin. The company’s capacity still
reflects Cold War production levels, Andi added.

The US is also replacing its squadrons of F-16 with newer F-22 Raptors and F-35
Lightnings, he said. Both oversupply and change in preference have lowered prices
for F-16s in the global market, he said.

It is unlikely that the country can purchase F-16s from the US because an embargo on
arms sales to Indonesia is still in effect, Andi said.

“Almost 90 percent of the embargo has been lifted since 2006, but lethal weapons
sales have not been lifted and I think there is no sign that the US will do so,” he said.

“Therefore, purchasing a Hercules [cargo aircraft] may not be a problem, but

purchasing a F-16 plane can be.”

The US Congress imposed the military embargo over a decade ago citing human
rights violations committed by the Indonesian Army’s Special Forces (Kopassus) in
West Papua and Timor Leste (then East Timor).

However a recently-signed bilateral defense framework arrangement allows Indonesia

to procure military equipment from the US, as previously reported, though the US
stated it still expects Kopassus to respect human rights.

Government agrees to sizeable expansion in defense budget, Jakarta Globe, May 4

The government has announced a plan to boost the defense budget from 0.9 percent of
GDP to between 1.2 and 1.5 percent, citing the need for the military to meet the
“minimum essential force” to thwart external threats.

“The increase will take effect next year,” Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said
on Tuesday after a cabinet meeting with the president at the State Palace.

He declined to give an exact figure for the budget.

The ministry’s 2010 budget is Rp 40.7 trillion ($4.5 billion), most of it allocated to
payroll. With GDP this year projected at Rp 5,000 trillion, the ministry’s 2011 budget
could top Rp 60 trillion.

“We informed the president that we need the extra funding for our main weapons
system, so our military can reach its minimum essential force,” Purnomo said. “We
also need to consider budgeting for dealing with foreign exploitation of natural
resources and energy in our border areas.”
He said the ministry would scale down its payroll allocation and shift more funding
toward weapons procurement, saying the restructured budget would be one of “zero
human resources growth.”

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono earlier said he had discussed drafting a

national defense policy.

“Such a strategic policy will need presidential approval and be valid for five years,”
he said. “It will serve as a reference for policies to build up the armed forces and
modernize our defenses.”

Yudhoyono claimed that defense budgets prior to 2009 had been relatively small,
although the CIA estimates Indonesia’s defense budget in 2005 as around 3 percent of
GDP.

“They were small compared to the defense budgets of Asean and other countries and
as a proportion of GDP,” the president said. “However, with a growing GDP and
increased state budget, now is the time to significantly increase our defense budget.”

He said that the correct long-term national defense strategy was required to use the
budget effectively.

“We hope that by 2014, our defense policy and armed forces will be close to meeting
our minimum essential force,” he said.

Vietnam

Former Enemies US, Vietnam now military mates, AP, August 8

Cold War enemies the United States and Vietnam demonstrated their blossoming
military relations Sunday as a U.S. nuclear supercarrier cruised in waters off the
Southeast Asian nation's coast — sending a message that China is not the region's
only big player.

The visit comes 35 years after the Vietnam War as Washington and Hanoi are cozying
up in a number of areas, from negotiating a controversial deal to share civilian nuclear
fuel and technology to agreeing that China needs to work with its neighbors to resolve
territorial claims in the South China Sea.

The USS George Washington's stop is officially billed as a commemoration of last

month's 15th anniversary of normalized diplomatic relations between the former foes.
But the timing also reflects Washington's heightened interest in maintaining security
and stability in the Asia-Pacific amid tensions following the sinking of a South
Korean warship in March, which killed 46 sailors. North Korea has been blamed for
the attack, but has vehemently denied any involvement.

Last month during an Asian security meeting in Vietnam's capital, Hanoi, U.S.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton also angered China by unexpectedly
calling on the Communist powerhouse to resolve territorial claims with neighboring
Southeast Asian countries over islands in the South China Sea.

"The strategic implications and importance of the waters of the South China Sea and
the freedom of navigation is vital to both Vietnam and the United States," Capt. Ross
Myers, commander of the George Washington's air wing, said aboard the ship Sunday
as fighter jets thundered off the flight deck above.

"I'm certain that the Chinese government and the Chinese people are trying to protect
their interests," he added when asked about China's increased aggressiveness within
the area. "It is more important for Vietnam (and) its partners to establish that they
have an equal right to economic prosperity and peace within the region as well."

Chinese navy ships were seen shadowing the USS George Washington at a distance
over the past several days as the supercarrier made its way throught the South China
Sea along Vietnam's eastern coast, U.S. Navy officials said Sunday.

Canadian firm says in deal for Vietnam Navy aircraft, AFP, May 12

A Canadian company says it has become the first Western firm to build fixed-wing
aircraft for the military in communist Vietnam, which is seeking to upgrade its
maritime defences.

Viking Air of Victoria, British Columbia, said it has finalised with the Vietnamese
navy a purchase agreement for six amphibious DHC-6 Twin Otter Series 400 aircraft,
in a statement obtained by AFP on Wednesday.

It said the deal would give the navy its first fleet of fixed-wing aircraft, some of which
are designed specifically for marine patrol.

Each aircraft is priced at more than five million Canadian dollars (around five million
US) but a Viking spokeswoman told AFP the total value of the deal, which includes
flight training and other components, was yet to be determined.

The planes are scheduled for delivery from 2012 to 2014.

Vietnam late last month approved an 8.5-billion-dollar economic and defence

development plan for a string of islands along its resource-rich coastline, as a broader
maritime sovereignty dispute simmers with China.

In December Vietnam and Russia -- a longtime supplier of military equipment to

Hanoi -- signed a major arms deal reported to involve the purchase of six submarines.

Analysts said the deal aims to bolster claims against China over potentially resource-
rich islands in the South China Sea.

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung confirmed only that the Russian deal included
submarines along with aircraft and "military equipment".
Russian media have reported that the aircraft order involved 12 Sukhoi Su-30MK2
warplanes. They are among the world's most advanced and could provide air cover for
the surface fleet, analysts said.

Vietnam to spend billions islands amid china dispute, AFP, May 4

Vietnam has announced an 8.5-billion-dollar economic and defence development plan

for a string of islands along its resource-rich coastline, as a broader sovereignty
dispute simmers with China.

A copy of the plan, dated April 28, was obtained by AFP on Tuesday.

It calls for development over a 10-year period of a string of islands stretching from
Phu Quoc near Cambodia in the southwest to Cat Ba off Haiphong in the north near
China.

The document says authorities aim to boost seafood, tourism, agro-forestry and other
sectors under the plan, which will require an estimated investment of 162.5 trillion
dong (8.5 billion dollars) over 10 years to 2020.

"That's a significant wad of cash for Vietnam to be spending," said Ian Storey, a
fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. The plan also calls for
increased investment in the islands' defences.

"It is essential to pay attention to security and defence tasks during arrangements for
economic and civil projects on islands," the document says, calling for them to
become an "outer defence stronghold".

The stronghold would include the Spratlys, the document says, although the South
China Sea archipelago is not among the islands listed for the economic development
initiative. Vietnam and China are engaged in a long-running dispute over sovereignty
of the Spratlys and another archipelago to the north, the Paracels, which China
occupies. The archipelagos are considered strategic outposts with potentially vast oil
and gas reserves and rich fishing grounds.

Taiwan also claims the Paracels, while the Spratlys are claimed in full or in part by
China and Vietnam as well as the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. Over the
past year Vietnam has reported cases of fishing boats and equipment being seized by
China.

In the latest incident, reported by the state Vietnam News on Monday, China released
23 Vietnamese fishermen but allegedly kept one of their boats and gear worth 500
million dong. The men were arrested while fishing off the Paracels.

Among the islands included in Vietnam's development plan are Phu Quy and Con
Dao, off southern Vietnam, where the country already produces oil and gas.

Last year a US State Department official said Beijing told US and other foreign oil
companies to halt work with Vietnamese partners in the South China Sea or face
consequences.
While Vietnam's island initiative appears to be about economic development, "another
factor would be the need to protect these offshore oil and gas deposits" as well as
fishing stocks, Storey said.

In December, Vietnam reached a major arms deal with Russia that was reported to
involve the purchase of six submarines. Analysts said the deal aimed to bolster
Vietnam's maritime claims against China. The islands contribute about 0.2 percent of
Vietnam's economy but this would more than double to 0.5 percent under the
development plan, the government document said.

HANOI—Beijing appears to be adopting a slightly more conciliatory tone over

territorial disputes in the South China Sea, backing away from describing the area as
part of its "core interests," a US official said Tuesday.

Chinese officials in recent months reportedly described the South China Sea in
diplomatic talks as among the country's "core interests," raising the stakes and putting
the issue on a par with Tibet or Taiwan.

"They now, at least in some of our interactions with them, appear to have backed
away somewhat from the 'core interest' argument," said the senior defense official,
who spoke on condition of anonymity.

His comments came on the sidelines of the highest level regional defense talks ever
held in Asia, led by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Chinese leaders seem "to be seeking to come up with other ways to articulate their
approach to these issues," the official told reporters.

"It is probably fair to conclude that there is some internal debate in Beijing about
exactly how they approach this set of issues."

China is involved in a series of long-running disputes with countries in the region

over strategically-important or potentially resource-rich islands.

President Barack Obama's administration has recently adopted a tougher line on the
South China Sea disputes, backing up smaller countries in the region that had
complained Beijing was using bullying tactics.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton staked out the US position in July. She said
freedom of navigation was a US "national interest" and indirectly questioned Beijing's
territorial claims.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates restated the policy on Tuesday at the conference and
said the US military would keep operating in what it considers international waters in
the Pacific, despite objections from China.

China's decision to attend Tuesday's conference was in itself a promising sign, US

officials said, suggesting Beijing wanted to reduce tensions and had not closed the
door to a regional diplomatic approach to the maritime issue.
In a statement to the Hanoi meeting, Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie said
his country was open to regional security cooperation.

The new forum "has appropriately set stronger mutual trust and understanding as one
of its basic objectives," he said.

"They're clearly here because they're trying to show a positive face in the region," the
senior US official said of the ASEAN-led conference.

China previously accused Washington of meddling in the issue and had said there was
no need for a multilateral deal.

Countries in Southeast Asia that have disagreed with China over maritime rights are
now trying to find "a more positive approach, a more constructive approach," the
official said.

"I would say we feel like there is less of a sense of an immediate crisis today" over the
South China Sea, he said.

There is hope that "we will not be translating differences in interpretation of

international law or policy differences into unsafe and dangerous behavior on the high
seas," the official said.

Comments on Obama's Visit: Part IV-- US, India & China

By B. Raman

On his way to China in November, 2009, President Barack Obama had made his first
halt in Japan to underline the importance attached by him to the USA’s relations with
Japan, with which it has a security relationship. There were detailed references to
China in his speeches and comments in Tokyo. In one of his speeches, he said: "The
United States does not seek to contain China, nor does a deeper relationship with
China mean a weakening of our bilateral alliances. On the contrary, the rise of a
strong, prosperous China can be a source of strength for the community of nations.
And so in Beijing and beyond, we will work to deepen our Strategic and Economic
Dialogue, and improve communication between our militaries. We will not agree on
every issue, and the United States will never waver in speaking up for the
fundamental values that we hold dear – and that includes respect for the religion and
cultures of all people. Because support for human rights and human dignity is
ingrained in America. But we can move these discussions forward in a spirit of
partnership rather than rancor."

2. After his visit to India from November 6 to 8,2010, he proceeded to Indonesia.

There were detailed references to China in his remarks at Jakarta. Addressing the
media after his arrival in Jakarta from New Delhi on November 9, he reportedly said
that the US will not seek to contain China. He added: "We want China to succeed and
prosper. China's continuous development is good for the US.” He also said that the
US regards China as "a huge, expanding market, where Americans can sell goods and
services", and treats China's prosperity and security as "a positive".
3. As compared to his readiness to speak openly and in detail about China at Tokyo
last year and at Jakarta now, he was economical in his references to China during his
stay in India. However, in his address to the Indian Parliament on November 8, he
spoke of his policy of deepening co-operation with India and China in two different
contexts. He spoke of his policy of comprehensive engagement with the world based
on mutual interest and mutual respect. He then added: “And a central pillar of this
engagement is forging deeper cooperation with 21st century centers of influence -—
and that must necessarily include India.”

4. Subsequently, he referred to the US again playing a leadership role in Asia and, in

this context, he said: “More broadly, India and the United States can partner in Asia.
Today, the United States is once again playing a leadership role in Asia —-
strengthening old alliances; deepening relationships, as we are doing with China; and
we’re reengaging with regional organizations like ASEAN and joining the East Asia
summit —- organizations in which India is also a partner. Like your neighbors in
Southeast Asia, we want India not only to “look East,” we want India to “engage
East” —- because it will increase the security and prosperity of all our nations.”

5. After his visit to China in November,2009, there were concerns in India that he was
giving greater priority to the USA’s relations with China. There were also concerns
over the following formulation in the Joint Statement issued by him and President Hu
Jintao: “The two sides welcomed all efforts conducive to peace, stability and
development in South Asia. They support the efforts of Afghanistan and Pakistan to
fight terrorism, maintain domestic stability and achieve sustainable economic and
social development, and support the improvement and growth of relations between
India and Pakistan. The two sides are ready to strengthen communication, dialogue
and cooperation on issues related to South Asia and work together to promote peace,
stability and development in that region.”

6. In the weeks preceding Obama’s visit to India, there was an attempt by the Obama
Administration to remove the impression in the Indian mind that his administration
was giving greater priority to China and was encouraging a strategic role for China in
South Asia in the context of Afghanistan and Indo-Pakistani relations. The US policy
was clarified by Mrs. Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State, in a speech at the East-
West Centre at Honolulu on October 28. She said: "The relationship between China
and the United States is complex and of enormous consequence but we are committed
to getting it right. There are some in both countries who believe that China's interests
and ours are fundamentally at odds. They apply a zero-sum calculation to our
relationship, so whenever one of us succeeds, the other must fail. But that is not our
view. In the 21st century, it is not in anyone's interest for the United States and China
to see each other as adversaries. In a crowded field of highly dynamic, increasingly
influential emerging nations, two stand out: India and China. Their simultaneous rise
is reshaping the world and our ability to cooperate effectively with these countries
will be a critical test of our leadership."

7. The policy of co-operating effectively with both India and China was also
underlined by Obama’s White House aides in their interactions with the media before
his visit. This policy of equality of strategic relationship with both India and China
without favouring one to the detriment of the other is reflected in the references to
India’s engagement with the East in Obama’s address to the Indian Parliament and in
the following formulation in the Joint Statement issued by him and Manmohan Singh:
“The two leaders have a shared vision for peace, stability and prosperity in Asia, the
Indian Ocean region and the Pacific region and committed to work together, and with
others in the region, for the evolution of an open, balanced and inclusive architecture
in the region. In this context, the leaders reaffirmed their support for the East Asia
Summit and committed to regular consultations in this regard. The United States
welcomes, in particular, India's leadership in expanding prosperity and security across
the region. The two leaders agreed to deepen existing regular strategic consultations
on developments in East Asia, and decided to expand and intensify their strategic
consultations to cover regional and global issues of mutual interest, including Central
and West Asia. In an increasingly inter-dependent world, the stability of, and access
to, the air, sea, space, and cyberspace domains is vital for the security and economic
prosperity of nations. Acknowledging their commitment to openness and responsible
international conduct, and on the basis of their shared values, India and the United
States have launched a dialogue to explore ways to work together, as well as with
other countries, to develop a shared vision for these critical domains to promote
peace, security and development. The leaders reaffirmed the importance of maritime
security, unimpeded commerce, and freedom of navigation, in accordance with
relevant universally agreed principles of international law, including the United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and peaceful settlement of maritime
disputes.”

8. Thus according to him, just as China has a useful role to play in South Asia as
stated in his Joint Statement with Hu, India has a useful role to play in South-East and
East Asia. It is evident that the US will not like to get involved in matters relating to
the Sino-Indian border dispute. Recent remarks by Mrs. Clinton and other US officials
have indicated that the US will not be averse to playing a role in the search for a
mutually satisfactory solution to the maritime disputes involving China with Japan in
the East China Sea and with some ASEAN countries in the South China Sea. But, it
does not envisage a role for itself in the territorial disputes between India and China.
This suits India too which prefers sorting out bilateral issues----whether with Pakistan
or China--- at the bilateral level without the involvement of third parties.

9. What India would want is that just as it would prefer the US continuing its effective
presence in Afghanistan to act as a check on Pakistan, it would prefer the US
continuing its effective presence in South-East and East Asia to act as a check on
China without itself getting involved in any relationship with the US which might be
interpreted by Beijing as directed against it.

10. What does Obama mean by saying that India and the US can partner in Asia?
What will be the objectives of such partnership? How would India react to the
proposal? Answers to these questions are not available. As part of the policy of re-
asserting the US leadership in Asia, there has recently been a surge in US diplomatic
activity in South-East and East Asia and Australia. Mrs. Clinton and Robert Gates, the
Defence Secretary, had visited separately a number of countries in the region. They
had also visited jointly South Korea and Australia.

11. From their statements and comments and from those of Obama, it would appear
that what Obama probably has in mind is not the revival of the idea of his predecessor
George Bush of a four-cornered strategic relationship involving the US, India, Japan
and Australia, but parallel strategic partnerships of the US with each of these
countries in order to strengthen peace and security in the region without giving it the
shape of an alliance. Where would the USA’s relations with China----which Obama
wants to deepen simultaneously--- fall in this parallel arrangement? It is not clear.
Obama’s new Asian policy is still taking shape and not much thought seems to have
been given by his advisers to the various implications of it.

12. This may please be read in continuation of my following articles:

a. OBAMA: How to Cooperate Effectively With Both India & China of October 29,
2010, at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers42/paper4135.html

b. The Return of the US to Asia: Core Interests Vs Mutual Interests of November 3,

2010, at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers42/paper4142.html

The Return of the US to Asia: Core Interests Vs Mutual Interests

By B. Raman

The forthcoming visit of President Barack Obama to India, Indonesia, Japan and
South Korea will be as important as his earlier swing through the Asia-Pacific region
after assuming office in January 2009. His first swing was in November last year
when he visited Japan, Singapore, China and South Korea.

2. Japan and South Korea are figuring in both these swings, indicating the importance
attached by him to the USA's relations with its two military allies in Asia.
Highlighting the USA's solidarity with these two countries and its security
commitments to them have been an important hallmark of his Asia-Pacific policy.
One has again seen this recently in the joint exercises held by the US Navy with the
South Korean Navy despite Chinese concerns in the wake of the alleged sinking of a
South Korean naval ship by North Korea and in the reiteration by Mrs. Hillary
Clinton, Secretary of State, during her current swing across the Asia-Pacific region
that the US security commitments to Japan covered the Senkaku group of islands in
the East China Sea too. While the US wished for a peaceful resolution of the dispute
between Japan and China, its security commitments to Japan will continue to cover
these islands too so long as there is no definitive settlement between Japan and China
on the question of sovereignty over the islands.

2. In addition to Japan and South Korea, his Asia-Pacific focus has been on China,
India and Indonesia in that order. The reasons for the priority given to China in his
Asia-Pacific policy have been economic as well as military------ the impact of China's
rise as an economic power on the US economy and the impact of China's rise as a
military power on peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region and on the freedom of
navigation in the waters of the area. Economic issues such as the alleged Chinese
manipulation of the value of its currency in order to maintain its exports to the US to
the detriment of the US manufacturing sector and the alleged Chinese use of its
monopoly in the production of rare earths as a political weapon against countries such
as Japan are increasingly figuring in the diplomatic discourse between the US and
China.
3.China-related issues with military implications such as the increasing assertiveness
of the Chinese Navy, the modernisation of its armed forces and Beijing's repeated
emphasis on its "core interests" even if they are at the expense of the "mutual
interests" of the countries of the region have led to two consequences. Firstly, a US
determination to maintain the primacy of its Navy in the Asia-Pacific region and
secondly, its increasing interest in bilateral issues involving China and the countries of
the region such as China's disputes with Japan and some ASEAN countries,
particularly Vietnam, on the question of sovereignty over the islands in the East and
South China Sea.

4. Obama's enhanced interest in India has economic as well as military origin.

Economically, while the Indian manufacturing sector poses no threat to the US
manufacturing sector similar to the threat posed by the Chinese manufacturing sector,
India's services sector, particularly its lead in the information technology sector, is
casting, in his view, a lengthening shadow on the US job market. Hence, his
unyielding pressure against outsourcing to India to the detriment of the unemployed in
the US. Obama's inability to deal effectively with the US economy has been an
important contributing factor to the decline in his popularity and to the set-back
expected to be suffered by his party in the current mid-term elections to the US
Congress. It could come in the way of his own chances of re-election as the President.
Obama's economic pressure against both China---on the question of its manipulated
currency--- and India on the issue of outsourcing would continue at least till the next
Presidential elections. Neither China nor India can expect any gestures from him on
economic issues.

4. The military origin of his enhanced interest in India arises from the huge Indian
market for military equipment. An increase in the US sales of military equipment to
India will have three benefits for the US: an increase in jobs in the US, enhanced US
political influence on Indian policy-making and a check on China's power aspirations
in the region. The pressure on India to buy more military equipment from the US will
continue to be an important component of the US policy towards India. Continuing
restrictions on the sale of military-related equipment to China and a gradual
relaxation of the existing curbs in relation to India are to be expected in the months to
come.

5. A major enunciation of the US policy towards the Asia-Pacific region came in one
of Obama's speeches in Japan during his first swing in November, 2009. He said:
"There must be no doubt. As America’s first Pacific President, I promise you that this
Pacific nation will strengthen and sustain our leadership in this vitally important part
of the world." He described himself as the USA's first Pacific President because of his
birth in Hawaii, his living in Indonesia as a boy and his mother spending nearly a
decade working in the villages of Southeast Asia. He added: “The Pacific rim has
helped shape my view of the world."

6. In his enunciation of what will be his policy in the Asia-Pacific region, he said:
"Since taking office, I have worked to renew American leadership and pursue a new
era of engagement with the world based on mutual interests and mutual respect. And
our efforts in the Asia Pacific will be rooted, in no small measure, through an
enduring and revitalized alliance between the United States and Japan."
7. Explaining why he decided to start his first swing from Japan, he said that he was
beginning his journey there in part because of "our common values — a belief in the
democratic right of free people to choose their own leaders and realize their own
dreams; a belief that made possible the election of both Prime Minister Hatoyama and
myself on the promise of change."

8. He had a message for China too. "The United States does not seek to contain China,
nor does a deeper relationship with China mean a weakening of our bilateral
alliances. On the contrary, the rise of a strong, prosperous China can be a source of
strength for the community of nations. And so in Beijing and beyond, we will work
to deepen our Strategic and Economic Dialogue, and improve communication
between our militaries. We will not agree on every issue, and the United States will
never waver in speaking up for the fundamental values that we hold dear – and that
includes respect for the religion and cultures of all people. Because support for human
rights and human dignity is ingrained in America. But we can move these discussions
forward in a spirit of partnership rather than rancor."

9. Chinese analysts looked upon his first swing across the region, the subsequent
swings of Mrs. Clinton and other US policy-makers and the increasing US interest in
its relations with the ASEAN and its member-countries as "the return of the US to
Asia" ---- to underline that it was determined to maintain its political and military
primacy in this region and not to concede it to China. While the Chinese have the
confidence that China can compete against the US economically, they do not have the
confidence that it can compete against it ideologically, politically and militarily.

10. After having seen the increased articulation of the US interests in this region after
his first swing, they are watching nervously what the second swing will portend for
China and its big power ambitions. It is significant that just as Obama chose Japan, a
democracy, for the start of his first swing, he has chosen India, another democracy,
for the start of his second swing. Just as he emphasised the USA's ideological
compatibility with Japan in his address in Tokyo, the spotlight during his visit to India
will be on the USA's ideological compatibility with India.

11. What would this mean in terms of the USA's relations with India and China? That
is the question to which Chinese analysts are trying to find an answer. They are still
confused.

OBAMA: HOW TO COOPERATE EFFECTIVELY WITH BOTH

INDIA & CHINA

By B.Raman

How to co-operate effectively with both India and China without seeming to favour
the relationship with one at the cost of the relationship with the other?

2. That will be one of the main strategic objectives of President Barack Obama’s
forthcoming Asian tour during which he will be visiting India, Indonesia, Japan and
South Korea. His observations during his visit to China in November last year had
given rise to an impression in India that his administration had downgraded the
importance attached to the USA’s relations with India by his predecessor George
Bush and had started viewing India as a sub-regional power not on par with China.

3. Correcting this impression without adding to Chinese fears of an attempt by the US

to use India against China will be one of the objectives of his forthcoming visit to
India and his subsequent meeting on November 11 with President Hu Jintao of China
in the margins of the G-20 summit in South Korea. The policies of the Bush
administration had given rise to fears in the Chinese mind that it was seeking to use
India and Japan to encircle China. Obama’s attempts to play down these fears had
created suspicions in India’s mind that he did not accord the same importance to the
USA’s relations with India as Bush had done.

4. Obama is keen to remove the impression in India that its importance vis-à-vis
China had been downgraded by him while at the same time reassuring China that it
has nothing to fear from closer Indo-American relations. A preview of how he
intended doing this has been available from the remarks of Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the
US Secretary of State, during her current tour of East and South-East Asia.

5. She has been quoted as saying as follows in a speech during her first halt at
Honolulu on October 28,2010: "The relationship between China and the United States
is complex and of enormous consequence but we are committed to getting it right.
There are some in both countries who believe that China's interests and ours are
fundamentally at odds. They apply a zero-sum calculation to our relationship, so
whenever one of us succeeds, the other must fail. But that is not our view. In the 21st
century, it is not in anyone's interest for the United States and China to see each other
as adversaries. In a crowded field of highly dynamic, increasingly influential
emerging nations, two stand out: India and China. Their simultaneous rise is
reshaping the world and our ability to cooperate effectively with these countries will
be a critical test of our leadership."

6. This strategic objective of finding ways of co-operating effectively with both India
and China is expected to be the main theme of his discussions with the Indian leaders
in New Delhi and his meeting with Hu Jintao in Seoul on November 11 as well as of
the meeting on October 29 of Hillary Clinton with Chinese state councillor Dai
Bingguo in Hainan.

7.From the various background briefings given by officials of the White House and
the State Department at Washington DC on the eve of Obama’s visit to Asia, it is
fairly clear that his visit to India will have a much larger strategic canvas than what
one had seen during the visit of Bush in 2006. It will not have a single point focus.
There will be no flagship issue. The larger strategic issue of the US, India and China
in Asia will be the defining theme of his visit. Other subjects such as the
implementation of the civil nuclear co-operation agreement, removal of the names of
some Indian establishments from the so-called list of entities barred access to US
technology, Indian purchase of US military equipment etc are likely to be discussed in
the margins of this defining theme, but at the sub-summit level by the officials of the
delegations without Obama himself devoting too much attention to it.

8. However, counter-terrorism co-operation will continue to be an important subject

on the summit agenda in view of the importance attached to it by Indian public and
political opinion and the continuing negative impact of terrorism on India’s relations
with Pakistan. What contribution the US can make to removing the distrust between
India and Pakistan will be a subject next in importance to the role of the US, India and
China in Asia.

9. The question of US support to India’s permanent membership of the UN Security

Council will be a tricky issue. There is no question of the US working for it unless it
is certain that Japan and Germany too get in. Even in the unlikely event of China
changing its present opposition to India becoming a permanent member, there is no
question of its supporting Japan now or ever.

10.Obama’s visit will have a mix of symbolism and substance. The symbolism will be
seen in Mumbai where he will demonstrate his solidarity with India in its fight against
terrorism and pay a tribute to the resilience of Mumbai and its business community in
the face of repeated terrorist strikes in this business city. He has deliberately chosen
Diwali for the start of his visit to underline his confidence that ultimately good will
prevail over evil. The substance will be seen during his talks with the Indian leaders in
New Delhi and in his address to the joint session of the Parliament.

11. Next to his visit to India, his visit to Indonesia, with the largest Muslim population
in the world, will be of major significance. He is expected to address the Islamic
world from Indonesia in continuation of his address from Cairo last year. He is
expected to focus on the thinning down of the US military presence in Iraq, his
keenness for a similar thinning down in Afghanistan and the goodwill of the US to the
Muslims of the world even while carrying on its fight against Al Qaeda and its
associates.

When Hillary Clinton told the ASEAN regional forum in Hanoi this past July
that it was in the United States’ interest that sovereignty issues in the Eastern
Sea be settled by negotiations, not force, it sent a shockwave through the region.
Unlike her husband’s conciliatory stance vis-à-vis an expanding China, the
Secretary of State seemed ready to challenge China’s dominance in the Eastern
Sea when she declared, “We oppose the use or threat of force by any claimant.”
Now the United States is making good on its promise by engaging in joint
military exercises with China’s neighbor, Vietnam.

Her declaration struck a special chord in Vietnam, the country most affected by
China’s aggressiveness. Vietnam’s skirmish with China resulted in the near
depletion of Vietnam’s navy in 1988.

The Chinese navy, in fact, frequently killed or harassed Vietnamese fishermen

operating within Vietnam’s territorial waters. These incidents added to a
consistent pattern of Chinese expansionism: conquest of the Paracel Islands in
1974; occupation of the Spratly archipelago in 1979; and annexation of the
12,000 square kilometers of territorial waters in the Vinh Bac Bo (Gulf of
Tonkin) conceded by Hanoi, under the 2000 Vinh Bac Bo Pact.

Young Vietnamese flocked to Internet chat rooms to hail the new U.S.
assertiveness as a necessary counter-weight approach to Chinese expansionism.
One reporter wrote that Hillary Clinton’s statement “lit up the faces of people
deadlocked and saddened by the risk of losing the country entirely.” One
Vietnamese journalist reported that he would write a letter to President Obama
to commend him for his firmness in dealing with the new Chinese threat in
South-East Asia.

To add teeth to Clinton’s statement, the heavily armed super aircraft carrier,
George Washington, made its way through the Eastern Sea along Vietnam’s
coast in August -- after a high profile exercise with the South Korean navy
following the sinking of a South Korean warship allegedly by a North Korean
torpedo. A group of high-ranking Vietnamese military and civilian officials was
flown onto the aircraft carrier cruising 200 miles off the port of Danang, the site
of the landing of the first contingent of American marines in March 1965. Two
days after the George Washington stop, on August 10, the USS John McCain
destroyer paid a port call to Danang to participate in training exercises with the
Vietnamese navy.

However, what angered China most was not the U.S. navy port calls to Vietnam
but reports of a controversial U.S.-Vietnam nuclear fuel and technology deal that
could allow Vietnam to enrich uranium on its soil. A nuclear-armed Vietnam, in
the long run, would constitute a far more formidable deterrent to China’s
territorial ambitions than it is now.

Lost amid the new geopolitical realignment and rising US-Sino tensions in South-
East Asia, however, is the fact that Vietnam is itself caught in an insoluble
political dilemma. There is a saying in political circles in Vietnam that if you
appease China you lose the country, but if you follow the United States you lose
the Communist Party because the influx of new ideas, technology and money
would accelerate a democratization that could ultimately bring down the corrupt
and unpopular regime.

For Vietnam communist leaders, it is a lose-lose situation because the continuous

erosion of the nation’s territorial integrity could trigger a popular uprising and
even a revolt within the army that had fought a bloody border war against China
in 1979 and has grown increasingly frustrated with the party leadership’s
subservience to Vietnam’s historic enemy to the north.

As for the United States, it is once again in a position to exert its leverage in this
strategic area of the world. By conditioning the granting of military support on
the improvement of Hanoi’s human rights record, the United States could help
ensure a free and democratic Vietnam that would be better able to stand up to
Chinese expansionism.

Ironically, 35 years after its humiliating defeat, the United States – without firing
a shot -- is closer than ever to realizing its original goal of an independent and
non-Communist Vietnam for which 58,000 Americans and hundreds of
thousands South Vietnamese have given their lives.

Thi Lam, a former general in the South Vietnamese army, is the author of "The
Twenty-five Year Century: A South Vietnamese General Remembers the
Indochina War to the Fall of Saigon" and most recently, "Hell in An Loc: The
1972 Easter Invasion and the Battle That Saved South Vietnam."