PROY

ZINC
X Y

AÑO PRECIO (ctvs US$/lb) PRODUCCION

Ctvs.US$/lb
TMF
LME (xi-xprom)^2
1 2005 62.68 1,202,000 1,202 1,588.57
2 2006 148.56 1,203,000 1,203 2,118.94
3 2007 147.07 1,444,000 1,444 1,983.90
4 2008 85.04 1,603,000 1,603 306.16
5 2009 75.05 1,512,931 1,513 755.25
6 2010 98.18 1,470,450 1,470 18.98
7 2011 99.50 1,256,383 1,256 9.19
8 2012 88.35 1,281,282 1,281 201.20
9 2013 86.65 1,351,273 1,351 252.21
10 2014 98.07 1,315,475 1,315 19.94
11 2015 87.65 1,421,218 1,421 221.55
12 2016 94.80 1,337,081 1,337 59.81
13 2017 131.17 1,473,073 1,473 819.88
14 2018 132.70 1,474,674 1,475 909.96
15 2019 ? ? #VALUE! #VALUE!
16 2020 ? ? #VALUE! #VALUE!
17 2021 ? ? #VALUE! #VALUE!
Sumatoria 1,435.46 19,345,840 9,265.52

PRODUCCION DEL ZINC

1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000
f(x) = 6507.4868820752x - 11707964.1644088
R² = 0.0497050782
1,200,000
PRODUCCION (TMF)

1,000,000

800,000

600,000

400,000

200,000

0
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

AÑOS
 PROD
600,000

400,000

200,000

0
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

AÑOS

HISTORIAL DEL PRECIO DEL ZINC (ctvs. $/lb

14
160.00 7.0
7
148.56
140.00

120.00
PRECIO DEL ZINC (ctvs . $/LB)

85 98. 99. 98
100.00 18 50
.04
88. 86
35 .65
80.00 75.
05
62.
60.00 68

40.00

20.00

0.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
AÑOS

AÑO MOLIBDENO
 US$/lb TMF
US Market (xi-xprom)^2
1 2005 32 17,000 244.09
2 2006 24.75 17,000 74.71
3 2007 30.17 17,000 197.78
4 2008 28.74 17,000 159.60
5 2009 11.12 12,297 24.87
6 2010 15.80 16,963 0.09
7 2011 15.45 19,141 0.43
8 2012 12.74 16,790 11.33
9 2013 10.32 18,140 33.49
10 2014 11.39 17,018 22.22
11 2015 6.65 20,153 89.39
12 2016 6.48 25,757 92.59
13 2017 8.21 28,141 62.42
14 2018 11.94 28,034 17.38
2019 259.42
2020 259.42
2021 259.42
Sumatoria 225.49 270,434 1,030.39

Chart Title
30,000

25,000
f(x) = 860.7706787604x - 1712123.5409554
20,000 R² = 0.5906319459

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Col umn D Col umn D
Li nea r (Col umn D)

Chart Title
35

30

25

20

15
35

30

25

20

15

10

0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
 PROYECCION DEL ZINC PARA LOS AÑOS 2019-

a b
(yi-yprom)^2 xi - xprom yi - yprom a*b
32,344,475,408 -39.86 -179,845.70 7,168,080.82
31,985,784,010 46.03 -178,845.70 -8,232,624.38
3,863,157,147 44.54 62,154.30 2,768,415.50
48,909,224,901 -17.50 221,154.30 -3,869,627.56
17,183,373,847 -27.48 131,085.37 -3,602,459.17
7,850,670,165 -4.36 88,604.01 -385,986.38
15,740,989,129 -3.03 -125,463.10 380,325.42
10,112,970,750 -14.18 -100,563.27 1,426,431.04
934,659,520 -15.88 -30,572.20 485,518.64
4,405,128,460 -4.46 -66,371.14 296,340.08
1,550,173,359 -14.88 39,372.24 -586,037.57
2,003,834,318 -7.73 -44,764.21 346,182.58
8,322,378,182 28.63 91,227.07 2,612,150.27
8,617,042,537 30.17 92,828.03 2,800,209.68
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
#VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE!
193,823,861,734.39 1,606,918.95

RODUCCION DEL ZINC

4.1644088

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

AÑOS
 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

AÑOS

DEL PRECIO DEL ZINC (ctvs. $/lb)

131 132
.17 .70

98. 99. 98
18 50 .07 94.
88. 87. 80
35 86 65
.65
.05

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
AÑOS
 (yi-yprom)^2 xi - xprom yi - yprom a*b
5,367,003.31 15.62 -2,316.68 -36,194.25
5,367,003 8.64 -2,316.68 -20,023.83
5,367,003 14.06 -2,316.68 -32,580.23
5,367,003 12.63 -2,316.68 -29,267.38
49,274,450 -4.99 -7,019.58 35,004.29
5,538,541 -0.31 -2,353.41 721.71
30,836 -0.66 -175.60 115.31
6,382,218 -3.37 -2,526.31 8,505.23
1,385,522 -5.79 -1,177.08 6,811.38
5,285,341 -4.71 -2,298.99 10,836.66
699,830 -9.45 836.56 -7,909.38
41,471,354 -9.62 6,439.83 -61,967.76
77,871,150 -7.90 8,824.46 -69,719.14
75,983,170 -4.17 8,716.83 -36,335.39
373,134,102 -16.11 -19,316.68 311,127.32
373,134,102 -16.11 -19,316.68 311,127.32
373,134,102 -16.11 -19,316.68 311,127.32
285,390,424 -232,002.80

Chart Title

- 1712123.5409554

010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

nD Col umn D
r (Col umn D)

Chart Title
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
AÑOS 2019-2020-Y2021
A) HALLAR LA MEDIA ARITMETICA DEL PRECIO Y DE LA PRODUCCION

Fórmula de media aritmetrica DEL PRECIO

1,435.46 102.53
14
DE LA PRODUCCION
19,345,840 1,381,846
14

B) HALLAR LA VARIANZA DEL PRECIO Y DE LA PRODUCCION

del precio
9,265.52 712.73
14
de la produccion
193,823,861,734 14,909,527,826
14
C) HALLAR LA DESVIACION TIPICA DEL PRECIO Y DE LA PRODUCCION
del precio
712.73 26.70

de la produccion
14,909,527,826 122,105

D) HALLAR LA COVARIANZA

1,606,918.95 123,609.15
14.00

E) COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACION

123,609.15 0.04
26.70 122,104.58
 F) HALLAR LA ECUACION DE LA RECTA DE REGRESION

REGRESION DE X SOBRE Y

REGRESION DE Y SOBRE X

H) ESTIMAR UN PRECIO PARA UNA PRODUCCION DE ******

A) HALLAR LA MEDIA ARITMETICA DEL PRECIO Y DE LA PRODUCCION

Fórmula de media aritmetrica DEL PRECIO
0.00 14.90
13
DE LA PRODUCCION
0 19,495
13

B) HALLAR LA VARIANZA DEL PRECIO Y DE LA PRODUCCION

del precio
0.00 0.00
14
de la produccion
0 0
14
C) HALLAR LA DESVIACION TIPICA DEL PRECIO Y DE LA PRODUCCION
del precio
712.73 26.70

de la produccion
14,909,527,826 122,105

D) HALLAR LA COVARIANZA

1,606,918.95 123,609.15
14.00

E) COEFICIENTE DE CORRELACION

123,609.15 0.04
26.70 122,104.58

F) HALLAR LA ECUACION DE LA RECTA DE REGRESION

REGRESION DE X SOBRE Y
REGRESION DE Y SOBRE X

H) ESTIMAR UN PRECIO PARA UNA PRODUCCION DE ******

PRODUCCION

DUCCION

RODUCCION
SION

******

PRODUCCION
DUCCION

RODUCCION

SION
******
 PRONOSTICOS DE DEMANDA- REGRESIO

b 6507.49
a -11707964.16
Syx 123891.70
Periodo (x) Demanda (y) xy x2 y2
2005 1,202,000 2410010000 4020025 1444804000000
2006 1,203,000 2413218000 4024036 1447209000000
2007 1,444,000 2898108000 4028049 2085136000000
2008 1,603,000 3218824000 4032064 2569609000000
2009 1,512,931 3039478514 4036081 2288960414801
2010 1,470,450 2955603910 4040100 2162222339343
2011 1,256,383 2526585409 4044121 1578497238113
2012 1,281,282 2577940252 4048144 1641684669232
2013 1,351,273 2720113550 4052169 1825940064041
2014 1,315,475 2649365758 4056196 1730473310406
2015 1,421,218 2863754149 4060225 2019860432557
2016 1,337,081 2695556286 4064256 1787786913251
2017 1,473,073 2971187774 4068289 2169943380521
2018 1,474,674 2975891578 4072324 2174662596863
2011.5 1381845.7 38915637179.6 56646079.0 26926789359128.6
2019 0 4076361.0 0
2020 0 4080400.0 0
2021 0 4084441.0 0
2022 0 4088484.0 0
EMANDA- REGRESION LINEAL

Demanda pronosticada con método de regresión lineal

Pronóstico (Y) DEMANDA (PRODUCCION) Li near (DEMANDA (PRODUCCION))
PRONOSTICO Li near (PRONOSTICO)
1,339,547
1,346,055 1,800,000
1,352,562
1,600,000
1,359,069 1,437,159
1,430,652 1,450,174
1,443,667
1,365,577 1,400,000 f(x) = 6507.4868820693x + 1333039.54726991
R² = 1
1,372,084
1,200,000
1,378,592
1,385,099 1,000,000
PRODUCCION

1,391,607
800,000
1,398,114
1,404,622 600,000
1,411,129
400,000
1,417,637
1,424,144 200,000

0
1,430,652 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
1,437,159
1,443,667 AÑOS
1,450,174
lineal
ION))

1,437,159
1,430,652 1,450,174
1,443,667

01 20 20 20 20
8 19 20 21 22
 PRONOSTICOS D

b 6507.49
a -11707964.16
Syx 123891.70
Periodo (x) Demanda (y) xy x2 y2
2005 1,202,000 2410010000 4020025 1444804000000
2006 1,203,000 2413218000 4024036 1447209000000
2007 1,444,000 2898108000 4028049 2085136000000
2008 1,603,000 3218824000 4032064 2569609000000
2009 1,512,931 3039478514 4036081 2288960414801
2010 1,470,450 2955603910 4040100 2162222339343
2011 1,256,383 2526585409 4044121 1578497238113
2012 1,281,282 2577940252 4048144 1641684669232
2013 1,351,273 2720113550 4052169 1825940064041
2014 1,315,475 2649365758 4056196 1730473310406
2015 1,421,218 2863754149 4060225 2019860432557
2016 1,337,081 2695556286 4064256 1787786913251
2017 1,473,073 2971187774 4068289 2169943380521
2018 1,474,674 2975891578 4072324 2174662596863
2011.5 1381845.7 38915637179.6 56646079.0 26926789359128.6
sumatorias(
error)
2019 0 4076361.0 0
2020 0 4080400.0 0
2021 0 4084441.0 0
2022 0 4088484.0 0

NUMERO DE PRONOSTICOS 18
DESVIACION ABSOLUTA MEDIA 78,183
ERRO MEDIO CUADRADO 10,232,768,418
PORCENTAJE DE ERROR MEDIO ABSOLUTO 0.0568363
PORCENTAJE MEDIO DE ERROR 0.00535
 PRONOSTICOS DE DEMANDA- REGRESION LINEAL

6507.49
11707964.16
123891.70
Pronóstico (Y) e1=y - Y ABS(e1) et * et ABS(E1)/y
1,339,547 -137,547 137,547 18,919,186,604 0.11443181
1,346,055 -143,055 143,055 20,464,595,988 0.11891481
1,352,562 91,438 91,438 8,360,906,396 0.06332271
1,359,069 243,931 243,931 59,502,091,368 0.15217124
1,365,577 147,354 147,354 21,713,226,588 0.09739643
1,372,084 98,365 98,365 9,675,720,034 0.06689466
1,378,592 -122,209 122,209 14,935,126,507 0.09727081
1,385,099 -103,817 103,817 10,777,971,740 0.08102586
1,391,607 -40,333 40,333 1,626,785,743 0.02984846
1,398,114 -82,640 82,640 6,829,346,292 0.06282133
1,404,622 16,596 16,596 275,428,440 0.01167733
1,411,129 -74,048 74,048 5,483,091,343 0.05538024
1,417,637 55,436 55,436 3,073,138,066 0.03763283
1,424,144 50,529 50,529 2,553,216,418 0.03426477
0.0000 0.00000000

0.0000000130385 1,407,298 184,189,831,529 1.0230533

1,430,652
1,437,159
1,443,667
1,450,174
 Demanda pronosticada con método de regresión lineal
e1/y DEMANDA (PRODUCCION) Li near (DEMANDA (PRODUCCION))
PRONOSTICO Li near (PRONOSTICO)
-0.1144318
-0.1189148 1,800,000
0.0633227
1,600,000
0.1521712 1,450,174
1,443,667
1,437,159
1,430,652
0.0973964
1,400,000 f(x) = 6507.4868820693x + 1333039.54726991
0.0668947 R² = 1
-0.0972708 1,200,000
-0.0810259
-0.0298485 1,000,000
PRODUCCION

-0.0628213
800,000
0.0116773
-0.0553802 600,000
0.0376328
0.0342648 400,000
0.0000000
200,000
0.0963333
0

AÑOS
al

437,159
652 1,450,174
1,443,667
 Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.2229463572
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.0497050782
R^2 ajustado -0.0294861653
Error típico 123891.69716884
Observaciones 14

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Regresión 1 9634030206 9634030206 0.6276587666
Residuos 12 1.8419E+11 1.5349E+10
Total 13 1.9382E+11

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción -11707964.1644079 16522372.6 -0.7086128 0.4921016523
Variable X 1 6507.4868820747 8213.93954 0.79224918 0.4435958793

Análisis de los residuales Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Observación Pronóstico para Y Residuos Percentil

1 1,339,547.03 -137547.03 3.5714285714
2 1,346,054.52 -143054.52 10.7142857143
3 1,352,562.01 91437.9921 17.8571428571
4 1,359,069.49 243930.505 25
5 1,365,576.98 147354.086 32.1428571429
6 1,372,084.47 98365.2379 39.2857142857
7 1,378,591.96 -122209.36 46.4285714286
8 1,385,099.44 -103817.01 53.5714285714
9 1,391,606.93 -40333.432 60.7142857143
10 1,398,114.42 -82639.859 67.8571428571
11 1,404,621.90 16596.0369 75
12 1,411,129.39 -74047.899 82.1428571429
13 1,417,636.88 55435.8915 89.2857142857
14 1,424,144.36 50529.3619 96.4285714286
 Gráfico de probabilid
2000000
1500000
1000000

Y
500000
0
0 20 40 60
Muestra percen
Valor crítico de F
0.4435958793

Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95.0% Superior 95.0%

-47707121.4788579 24291193.15 -47707121.479 24291193.15004
-11389.1499685838 24404.123733 -11389.149969 24404.12373273

tos de probabilidad

Y
1202000
1203000
1256382.600211
1281282.431485
1315474.557111
1337081.490879
1351273.497128
1421217.939852
1444000
1470449.706499
1473072.768237
1474673.725562
1512931.067432
1603000
o de probabilidad normal

20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil