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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVII No.50 Monday, 15 - 21 October 2018 Pgs.21 Rs.20

Sentiment remains tentative Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &

By Sanjay R. Bhatia Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis
The markets continued their downward journey last week to get a view of the stock market and the
amidst high volatility on account of weak domestic and global happenings which many may not be aware of.
cues before witnessing a smart rebound on Friday on the back of
positive news flow. The Nifty breached the 10150 mark early during the week due to sustained selling pressure.
However, the markets managed to close the week above this level on the back of bargain buying and short-covering.
The FIIs continued to be net sellers in the cash segment but remained net buyers in the derivatives segment. The DIIs
continued to support the markets at the lower levels and remained net buyers. The breadth of the market remained
negative amidst low volumes. On the global front, crude oil prices moved lower with Brent trading around $81/barrel.
On the domestic front, the Q2 earnings season has started
on a sound note with TCS delivering another set of good Believe it or not!
numbers with a positive future outlook. The government
plans to take measures on oil prices and liquidity crunch.
 Acknit Industries recommended at
Rs.121.35 in TF last week, zoomed to Rs.158
Technically, the prevailing positive technical conditions
helped the markets bounce back. The Stochastic, KST and appreciating 30% in just 1 week!
RSI are all placed above their respective averages on the  Bandhan Bank recommended at Rs.456.80 in
daily chart. Further, the Stochastic is placed in the BB last week, zoomed to Rs.521.40
oversold zone on the weekly chart. Moreover, the Nifty’s appreciating 14% in just 1 week!
50-day SMA is placed above its 100-day SMA and 200-day  IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals
SMA and its 100-day SMA is placed above its 200-day recommended at Rs.113.6 in TT last week,
SMA, indicating a ‘golden cross’ breakout. These positive zoomed to Rs.125.70 appreciating 11% in just
technical conditions could lead to short-covering and
follow-up buying support. 1 week!
 Sonata Software recommended at Rs.317.25
The prevailing negative technical conditions, however,
still hold good and could weigh on the market sentiment. in SW last week, zoomed to Rs.340
The Stochastic, MACD, KST and RSI are all placed below appreciating 7% in just 1 week!
their respective averages on the weekly chart. The Nifty is  Rites recommended at Rs.228.70 in TF last
still placed below its 50-day SMA, 100-day SMA and 200- week, zoomed to Rs.244.80 appreciating 7%
day SMA. These negative technical conditions could lead in just 1 week!
to intermediate bouts of profit-booking and selling
pressure especially at the higher levels. (BB – Best Bet; SW – Stock Watch;
The -DI line is placed above the +DI line and the ADX line TF – Techno Funda; TT – Tower Talk)
and above 37. But it has come off its recent highs, which This happens only in Money Times!
indicates that the sellers are covering shorts. The ADX
line is placed above 47. Now in its 27th Year

A Time Communications Publication 1

The Nifty has managed to sustain above 11200, which
augurs well for the markets. It is important for the Nifty to
sustain above 11400 for selling pressure to ease and to
move higher to test 10589. Below 10200, the Nifty could fall
further to test 10000 due to intensified selling pressure. The
market sentiment remains tentative. Regular follow-up
buying support is needed for the markets to come out of the
current turmoil.
Rupee and crude oil prices remain a challenge for the Indian
economy. Let’s see how the government handles it ahead of
the elections. Meanwhile, the markets will take cues from
the earnings season, global markets, Dollar-Rupee exchange
rate and crude oil prices.
Technically, the Sensex faces resistance at the 34937, 35322,
36350, 37165, 37630, 38250, 38761 and 38989 levels and
seeks support at the 34344 and 32596 levels. The resistance levels for the Nifty are placed at 10589, 10748 and 10808
while its support levels are placed at 10419, 10340, 10283, 10000, 9958, 9827 and 9735.

BAZAR.COM

Festivals sans festivities

Multiple headwinds pose multiple challenges to the stock market. Dussehra is just at an arm’s length away but muhurat
purchases of consumer durables are still lagging. The pre-festive Diwali cheer is conspicuous by its absence while the
online discount sales have hit a record high. This may be a flash in the pan and does not indicate the festive cheer. At
Dalal Street, the domestic and global headwinds have raised a terrible storm. Hardly had the dust settled on the liquidity
and solvency issues of NBFCs, the US markets nosedived around 800 points in Dow Jones mid-week prompting
President Donald Trump to state ‘Fed has gone crazy’!
Torrid times are in for sure and the prophets of Doom are working overtime to raise the stress level of investors and
damage their health and wealth. It is not that such times are anything new. The ebb is a natural complement of the high
tide and it’s no different this time. The reasons for the low tide differ each time but it fulfills one main purpose – to
correct the excesses that had set in.
Seasoned investors and wealth creators will vouch for the fact that such phases are not suicidal if your stakes are
meaningful and prudent. Obviously such excessive swings at ‘jwar-bhaata’ (high and low tides) are pure outcomes of
overleveraged situations.
If viewed objectively, the market pundits who scream of doom and gloom today are the same prophets that flaunted
India as the economy of the future. Highest GDP growth amongst large economies, youngest population, huge workforce,
rising purchasing power, fast developing infrastructure, etc. Have all these factors changed overnight? Are corporate
profits squeezed? Can a country that is striding ahead economically suddenly turn turtle and become irrelevant in the
world? Obviously not, such pundits in all likelihood are the ones who have no clue about the market’s future. They
alternate between euphoria and despair and earn fat bonuses out of it. Just ignore them as they are equally ignorant
about the market trend like millions of other investors!
Investors need to negotiate such trying times once again with the confidence of the future. They earn and lose high P/E
multiples on account of volatility. Stay put with volatility and let it not influence you negatively. After all, we all know
that the markets make new highs and correct only to scale higher altitudes. Investors should be in this game with zeal
and enthusiasm and not lose sleep over booms and dooms.
Timing the market is nearly impossible. So, we must stand resolute to temptations of buying when the P/E multiple
expands euphorically. Similarly, we must not sell when the sentiment turns negative. From a high of 6200 in January
2008, the Nifty collapsed to 2600 in just a few months only to touch 6100 again in October 2010.
Don’t let the macro headwinds (domestic as well as global) derail your investment vehicle. Just like every good thing
comes to an end, the worst too does not last eternally. Governments and industrialists often prepare to insulate
themselves from such chilly headwinds. It is just a matter of time. Till then, enjoy the ‘me too’ movement all over the
media. This will at least save you from the unwanted stress unless it turns to ‘you too’!

A Time Communications Publication 2

 TRADING ON TECHNICALS

Cover short positions

Sensex Daily Trend DRV Weekly Trend WRV Monthly Trend MRV
Last Close 34733 Down 35684 Down 36624 Up 33004
Start Date - 17-09-18 - 21-09-18 - 31-05-16 -
Start Level - 37585 - 36841 - 26667 -
Gain/Loss (-) - 2852 - 2108 - 8066 -
% Gain/Loss (-) - 7.59 - 5.91 - 22.02 -
Last week, the Sensex opened at 34412.35, made a low at 33723.53 and moved to a high of 34858.35 before it closed the
week at 34733.58 and thereby registered a net rise of 356 points on a week-to-week basis. A recovery candle was seen,
which soaked the selling pressure last week.
Daily Chart
A swing bottom appears to be in place, which suggests a near-term rise to DRV-35684. Weakness may resume below
33723. Till then, a weak opening or correction during the week could soak the selling pressure. The markets will keep
recovering unless a sharp slide below 33723 is seen on a closing basis.
Weekly Chart
Support levels are placed at 34438-34018-33723.
Higher range for the week is 35153-36288.
Higher low and higher high this week with a bullish candle
can set the rise for retracement of the fall from 38989 to
33723. Retracement levels are placed at 35716-36333-
37024.
The last major bottom witnessed was 32484. The demand
zone attached to it on the weekly chart is 33354-32484.
Overall, the lower range has support and even if 33723 is
violated, the demand zone on the weekly chart may try to
soak the selling pressure.
BSE Mid-Cap Index
Weekly chart:
Support was seen at 13632 as the low and close registered last week was 13538 and 14286 respectively.
Weakness will resume below 13538. Post 09/10/2018, mid-cap participation on the daily chart has improved positively.
A pullback retracement could see a rise towards 14876-15283-15681.
BSE Small-Cap Index
Weekly chart:
Weakness will resume below 13396. Small-caps witnessed buying from the lower range even though the Nifty saw a
gap-down opening on Thursday.
Resistance will be at 14325-14586. A pullback rally could resume on a breakout and close above 14586.
Strategy for the week
Last week, the Sensex made a low of 33723 due to selling pressure. But buyers emerged and soaked the selling pressure
to show an intra-week recovery.
Traders may cover short positions at 34733 or below as bulls are trying to take charge of the market. Further selling will
be seen below 33723. Traders short can maintain their stop loss of 34900.

A Time Communications Publication 3

 WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS
Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with whatever low
registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above then look to book profits as
the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on
Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Note: R1-(Resistance), R2- (Resistance), R3- Resistance, S1- Support & S2- Support

Weekly Up
Scrip Last Relative
S1 S2 - R1- R2- Reversal Trend
Close Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
MERCK 3019.3 2583 2723 2879 3175 3627 53.7 2819.3 12-10-18
INFO EDGE (INDIA) 1485.85 1366.7 1393.3 1459.2 1551.7 1710 52.3 1467.5 12-10-18
ATUL 3220.7 2920 3014.3 3126.7 3333.3 3652.3 51.2 3148.5 12-10-18
J.K.PAPER 159.65 142.1 145.3 156.4 170.8 196.2 51 154.7 12-10-18
ICICI BANK 318.8 298.5 303.5 313.8 329 354.5 50.5 312.1 12-10-18

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS

Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever high
registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to cover short
positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down Trend to Up Trend.
Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Note: R1-(Resistance), R2- (Resistance), R3- Resistance, S1- Support & S2- Support

Weekly Down
Scrip Last Relative
S1 S2 - R1- R2- Reversal Trend
Close Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
ANDHRA BANK 26.15 24 25.5 26.4 27 27.2 30.82 27.48 07-09-18
TATA MOTOR DVR 101.15 65.5 90.7 105.5 115.9 120.2 21.07 116.74 21-09-18
REPCO HOME FINANCE 376.65 301.4 353.7 383.2 406.1 412.6 21.84 417.19 17-08-18
TIMKEN INDIA 555 504.3 539.6 559.4 574.8 579.2 23.46 583.9 10-08-18
PRESTIGE ESTATES PROJ. 177.8 106.2 156.4 185.2 206.6 214 24.1 202.39 13-07-18
BIRLA CORPORATION 563.3 419.3 516.7 567.6 614.2 618.5 24.22 623.82 31-08-18

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.

EXIT LIST
Note: R1- (Resistance), R2- (Resistance), R3- Resistance, S1- Support & SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close R1 R2 R3 SA S1 Monthly RS

MPHASIS 1012.55 1071.52 1093 1114.48 1184 889.5 40.34

BIOCON 607.9 622.18 635.5 648.82 691.95 509.3 40.7
SONATA SOFTWARE 322.65 331.45 338.25 345.05 367.05 273.9 44.06
PAGE INDUSTRIES 28996.15 30044.8 30800 31555.2 34000 23644.8 44.77
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES 1918.4 2045.45 2088.9 2132.35 2273 1677.3 49.83
TECH MAHINDRA 693.55 716.98 729.03 741.07 780.05 614.9 51.33
SANOFI INDIA 5942.9 6080.1 6145 6209.9 6420 5530.1 52.85
INFOSYS 679.05 698.14 709 719.86 755 606.1 55.23
L&T TECHNOLOGY SERVICES 1474.8 1524.26 1571.75 1619.24 1773 1121.8 59.16

A Time Communications Publication 4

 BUY LIST
Note: R1-(Resistance), R2- (Resistance), R3- Resistance, S1- Support & WB- Weak Below
Scrip Last Close S3 S2 S1 WB R1 Monthly RS

- - - - - - - -

PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame
of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength

Weak RS-
Scrip BSE Code Last Close Demand Point Trigger Supply point Supply point
below Strength
- - - - - - - - -

TOWER TALK
 Lupin is set to launch its generic Potassium Chloride Oral Solution. A positive for the company. Buy.
 With Chanda Kochhar stepping down, the growth path for ICICI Bank is wide open. An attractive buy.
 Mahindra & Mahindra has entered the retail leasing market and expects this business to contribute 5-7% to
accrued sales. Buy.
 State Bank of India has raised the target for loan portfolio purchase from NBFCs. The investment will infuse the
much needed liquidity into the market. Buy.
 Indiabulls Housing Finance has hiked its home loan rates and has posted excellent results for Q2 with an interim
dividend of Rs.10. Also, the management has guided a 20% growth this year. The stock is a potential bonus
candidate as well. Buy.
 Kerala Ayurveda has collaborated with Sanghvi Brands Ltd to develop Ayurveda wellness resorts. The stock is
available at 50% discount to its 52-week high. Buy.
 Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers, which had a subdued listing on the bourses, is reportedly doing well.
The current scenario offers a good opportunity to buy if you missed it.
 L&T Finance Holdings has clarified that it does not have any exposure to IL&FS bills of exchange and therefore is in
a safe zone. Accumulate.
 Maruti Suzuki India, which recently flagged off about 50 electric vehicles for field test, merits a buy.
 PI Industries has a strong order book and sustained capex plans for the next few years. It may grow at ~20% CAGR
over the next two years. Buy.
 FMGC major, ITC, is trading around 16% below its intrinsic worth. Buy.
 The Canfin Homes counter has witnessed heavy volumes and the stock is likely to make a new high soon. Buy.
 Relaxo Footwears expects a 25% growth in volumes with a turnover of ~Rs.2500 crore sales this year. It also
intends to add about 50 standalone outlets. Buy for the long-term.
 HCL Technologies plans to invest ~Rs.750 crore to set up two facilities in Andhra Pradesh, which will create about
7,500 jobs over the next ten years. Buy.
 The truce between the promoters of Yes Bank will definitely benefit the bank in many ways. Buy immediately.
 Zee Entertainment Enterprises, which reported 24% higher revenues during Q2FY19, is expected to fare well this
year. Buy.
 Axis Bank, which has an efficient workforce, shows signs of a breakout. An excellent buy.
 HEG and Graphite India have started rising again after Bank of America Merrill Lynch initiated a heavy coverage.
The prospects of both companies are slated to improve significantly. A big buy.
 Dilip Buildcon has received a huge order worth ~Rs.1000 crore from Coal India. The management is eyeing around
30% CAGR over the next two years. Buy.
 Timken India has turned attractive on amalgamation plans of ABC Bearings. The stock has the potential to rise
~30% within a year. Buy.

A Time Communications Publication 5

 Tata Consultancy Services reported 23% higher PAT at Rs.7901 crore for Q2FY19. An evergreen stock. Buy.
 BSE is available at attractive P/E valuations of 12x FY19E earnings with 6% dividend yield. The stock has the
potential to touch Rs.1000 again within a year.
 Pressman Advertising with a 70% dividend track record and a book value of Rs.15.13 for its Rs.2 paid-up share is
an attractive buy at a P/E of 9.38 against the industry average P/E of 27.43.
 Shreyans Industries, which posted good results for Q1FY19, is on course to notch an EPS of Rs.30 for FY19. The
stock trades cheap and has the potential to cross Rs.280.
 Hinduja Global Solutions is expected to notch an EPS of Rs.105 for FY19 and Rs.115 for FY20. The stock may touch
Rs.1200.
 Bosch is expected to notch an EPS of Rs.600 for FY19 based on its Q1FY19 EPS of Rs.140+. The stock is likely to
cross Rs.24000 going forward.
 Pokarna is all set to notch an EPS of Rs.22 in FY19. A reasonable P/E of 10x will take its share price to Rs.220.
 After reporting excellent numbers for Q1FY19, Vindhya Telelinks is expected to notch a consolidated EPS of
Rs.160+ for FY19. A reasonable P/E of 12.5x will take its share price to Rs.2000.
 Godawari Power & Ispat is expected to notch an EPS of Rs.85 for FY19. Buy for 50% returns in the medium-term.
 KSE, which reported an EPS of Rs.45.75 for Q1FY19, may notch an EPS of Rs.260 in FY19. Generally, its second half is
always better. A reasonable P/E of 15x (industry P/E is 35x) will take its share price to Rs.3900 in the medium-term.
Moreover, the stock is a strong bonus candidate.
 Rico Auto Industries aims to achieve a turnover of Rs.2000 crore by 2020. It is on track to notch an EPS of Rs.6.5
for FY19 and Rs.9 for FY20. The stock is poised to cross Rs.100.
 Veto Switchgears & Cables is likely to notch a consolidated EPS of Rs.18 in FY19. The stock is available at a steep
discount of 65% from its all-time high and has the potential to touch Rs.150.
 Andhra Petrochemicals, which reported 3000% higher PAT of Rs.31.47 crore for Q1FY19, is expected to post
excellent results in Q2 as well. It has enhanced its production capacity from 30,000 TPA to 73,000 TPA. Buy.
 An Ahmedabad-based analyst recommends Acknit Industries, Hind Aluminium Industries and IOL Chemicals &
Pharmaceuticals. From his last week’s recommendations, Goldiam International jumped 11% from Rs.70.10 to
Rs.78 in just 1 week!

BEST BET

Patel Integrated Logistics Ltd

(BSE Code: 526381) (CMP: Rs.37.45) (FV: Rs.10)
By Bikshapathi Thota
Company Background: Patel Integrated Logistics Ltd (PILL) is a single-stop logistics services provider that offers a
complete range of logistics solutions through an extensive infrastructure of offices and delivery destinations across
India. Its business activities include surface transport through Patel Roadways division; retail door pick-up and delivery
through Patel Express division; warehousing through Patel Warehouse; air cargo consolidation through Patel Airfreight
division. Delivrex India Ltd is its wholly-owned subsidiary.
PILL has purchased a 2.2 acre land on a long-term lease of 99 years from Karnataka Industrial Areas Development Board
to construct a new warehouse facility in Bangalore, which is likely to be operative by FY19 end. It has also purchased a 3
acre land in Chennai to construct a new warehouse and transshipment facility, which will be used for Warehousing,
Express and Distribution activities. The facility will lead to considerable savings in rent and boost revenue and
profitability going forward. The management plans to invest ~Rs.80 crore to set up 10 warehouses in key traffic
regions.
During FY18, PILL allotted 6,49,311 equity shares against conversion of equity warrants to a Mauritius based strategic
investor - Frontline Strategy Ltd at an issue price of Rs.115/share on preferential basis. It also entered into a 51:49 joint
venture agreement ‘DeliverEx’ with Dubai-based Fetchr to launch a dedicated e-commerce service in the Middle-East,
which will be operational by 2018 end.

A Time Communications Publication 6

Industry Overview:
Surface Transport and Logistics: The transport and logistics sector is a significant contributor to economic growth and
prosperity. The logistics sector in India supports various components of the manufacturing industry. The Union Budget
has emphasized on infrastructure development by stressing the need for over Rs.50 lakh crore of investments to connect
and integrate the country with a comprehensive network of roads, railways, airports, ports and inland waterways.
With the advancement in e-commerce and vendors racing to provide the fastest door-to-door services, the scope for
third-party logistics (3PL) and warehousing has widened. With upgradation of road infrastructure, cargo handling will
also witness a significant shift from air-based to surface-based transport. Eventually, this will result in better
infrastructural utilization and boost the overall feasibility of the network.
Logistics companies have been the biggest beneficiaries in the GST era. After the removal of check posts, trucks are able
to cover longer distances with an improved turnaround time. The logistics industry is witnessing a shift in trend from
unorganized players to large organized players. Moreover, the infrastructure status to the logistics industry will enable
companies in the logistics and warehousing sector to access funds at lower cost and for longer tenure with enhanced
limits.
The Indian freight transportation sector is estimated to grow at ~13% CAGR by 2022. The high rate of development and
new solutions for transport infrastructure is likely to boost the logistics industry in India.
India was ranked 35th on the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index, moving up from the 54th spot in 2014. The
Indian logistics industry provides employment to more than 22 million people and has grown at 7.8% CAGR over the
last five years. Realising the importance of the sector and to address the inefficiencies, the government has included the
sector in the Harmonised Master list of Infrastructure Sub-sector.
Air Cargo: Air transport is vital for cross-border trade and speed and efficiency in transporting high-value, time and
temperature sensitive cargo. IATA forecasts a rise in cargo carried in 2018 to 62.5 million tonnes v/s 59.9 million tonnes
in 2017, which represents less than 1% of world trade by volume and over 35% by value. E-commerce companies like
Amazon, Alibaba, eBay, etc. rely on express delivery services which
are possible only through aviation. Therefore, the growth potential Financials: (Rs. in crore)
for the air cargo industry is phenomenal. Particulars FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E
Conclusion: Currently, the stock trades at 6x FY19E EPS and 0.5x Sales 514.01 458.73 428.97 472
book, which is the lowest in the industry. Its recent tie-up with Expenditure 489.64 445.31 413.51 424
Amazon and the DeliverEx project will contribute to earnings going PBDT 15.35 13.43 15.46 15.2
forward. Therefore, we have a Buy on the stock with a price target of Net Profit 8.37 7.03 8.23 9.3
Rs.90 (15x FY19E EPS) in the next 1-2 years. EPS (Rs.) 5.46 4.42 5.03 6

STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta

Tata Steel Ltd

(BSE Code: 500470) (CMP: Rs.574.95) (FV: Rs.10) (TGT: Rs.750+)
Established in 1907, Mumbai-based Tata Steel Ltd (TSL) manufactures and distributes steel products. It offers hot-rolled
(HR) and cold-rolled (CR) coated steel coils and sheets, precision tubes, tire bead wires, spring wires, and bearings; auto
ancillaries for the automotive market; and bearings, galvanized iron wires, agriculture and garden tools, conveyance
tubes, fencing, farming and irrigation equipment for the agriculture market. It also provides steel doors and windows,
roofing sheets, plumbing pipes, tubes, prefabricated and rooftop houses, water kiosks, modular toilets, office cabins,
corrosion-resistance steel, cut and bend bars, PC strands, ground granulated blast furnace slags, etc. In addition, it offers
CR, coated, HR, tube, wire rod, ferro chrome and manganese, boiler tube, pipe, ferroshot and metallic products for use in
panels and appliances, fabrication and capital goods, furniture, LPG and welding applications as well as process
industries such as cement, power and steel in the industrial and general engineering markets.
The Usha Martin (UML) acquisition by TSL was a smart move. It was done at 30% discount to greenfield capex cost as
the plant has strong backward integration and an attractive long products portfolio in close vicinity to TSL’s facilities.
We believe that several operational issues have plagued UML’s operational performance over the years and expect TSL
to achieve a much better operational and financial performance from the same asset. We see several synergies and
expect EBITDA to improve by Rs.1500-2000/tonne. We also expect TSL to abandon its further inorganic acquisitions
efforts given that UML has given the long products exposure it was looking for. Though the acquisition looks pricey on

A Time Communications Publication 7

trailing financials, we believe that it does not represent the potential and hence, an undue attention to the same might be
unwarranted.
Despite factoring in the acquisitions of both UML and Bhushan Power & Steel, we expect Net Debt/EBITDA for
consolidated operations (excluding its European business) to remain in a comfortable zone of 3.1x (v/s 2.9x at FY18
end) which allays street’s concerns on TSL’s balance sheet getting stretched again. We believe that a much larger asset
base of TSL’s domestic business, shifting of European business to JV with ThyssenKrupp and its large cash flows in the
current steel cycle will help keep the balance sheet in a healthy position.
TSL currently enjoys strong spreads and cash flows in its domestic business led by strong steel pricing, backward
integration benefits and improved conversion cost metrics. The management’s goal of doubling capacity in India over
the next 5 years is within reach with the acquisition of 6 MMTPA capacities and KPO phase II expansion of 5 MMTPA. We
will keenly look for management views on further participation in inorganic growth but expect it to halt now and hence,
expect TSL to not pursue Bhushan Power & Steel now.
We see domestic asset acquisitions being value accretive in the medium-to-long term due to attractive product
portfolios and strong possibility of material synergies. We also draw comfort on the balance sheet front due to shifting of
European operations to JV and strong cash flow generation in the residual business led by low cost domestic operations.
Technical Outlook: The stock looks good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has formed a downward
channel pattern on the daily chart and a close above Rs.610 with good volumes will push the stock higher. The stock
trades below all important moving averages like the 200 DMA level on the daily chart.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.574.95 and on dips to Rs.530 for medium-to-long term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.750+ in the next 12 months.
*******

Asian Paints Ltd

(BSE Code: 500820) (CMP: Rs.1261.50) (FV: Re.1) (TGT: Rs.1400+)
Established in 1942, Mumbai based Asian Paints Ltd (APL) together with its subsidiaries manufactures and sells paints
and coatings for decorative and industrial use. It operates primarily into four segments: Decorative Paints; International
Paints; Industrial Paints & Coatings; and Home & Improvement. The decorative segment contributes ~76% to its top-
line followed by the international business at 12%, industrial at 9% and home and improvement at 2%.
APL provides interior and exterior wall finishes, enamels, wood and metal finishes as well as wall painting tools such as
brushes, rollers, accelerators and mechanized tools. It also offers wall covering and stickers, waterproofing solutions and
adhesives. In addition, it provides surfacing preparations, organic composite solvents and thinners, organic and
inorganic chemical compounds, phthalic anhydride and pentaerythritol, which are used to manufacture paint. It also
offers kitchen components such as hardware, shutters/cabinets, accessories, appliances and bath-fitting products. It
distributes its products through a network of distributors, dealers and retail stores.
APL is a market leader with a professional
management, history of innovative strategies in
marketing, efficient manufacturing and logistics in Are you passionate about stocks?
place and prudent financial management. During Can you spot a winner?
Q1FY19, it reported 15% higher revenues
of Rs.43903 million mainly due to growth in its Are you keen to write?
decorative business led by both volume and 1.9%
If your answer is YES to all the three questions, MONEY TIMES,
price hike effected in May 2018. Its operating
margin stood at 19.9% at Rs.8744 million launched by the pioneers of investment journalism, invites
v/s Rs.6654 million in Q1FY18. PAT margin stood you to join its team of contributors.
at 12.8% at Rs.6051 million v/s Rs.4127 million in Each and every analyst on our panel is passionate about stock
Q1FY18. The improvement in margins was partly investments and is an expert in his field. What is, however,
due to the impact of GST in the previous year’s more significant is that most of them were our subscribers
quarter and better operating efficiency. first and have been writing for over 20 years now.
The management has indicated that it may So if you want to join this eminent group, write to
conduct a further price hike due to increase in raw
moneytimes.support@gmail.com and send us a sample of
material costs owing to rising crude oil prices.
However, it also denied any immediate hike as the your article written or published.
government has lowered the GST rate for the

A Time Communications Publication 8

industry from 28% to 18%.
In terms of growth, we expect the Indian paints industry to grow at ~8-12% in the next few years as demand factors
remain strong. Concerns remain in terms of raw material costs mainly on account of rising crude oil prices, which we
believe is gradually declining due to higher demand for water-based paints going ahead.
Technical Outlook: The stock looks good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has taken support of its 100
DMA level placed at Rs.1170 on the weekly chart. It has taken support of a strong uptrend line. The stock trades below
all important moving averages like the 200 DMA level on the daily chart. Start accumulating at this level of Rs.1261.5 and
on dips to Rs.1216 for medium-to-long term investment and a possible price target of Rs.1400+ in the next 12 months.

STOCK SCAN

Panasonic Carbon India Company Ltd

(BSE Code: 508941) (CMP: Rs.419) (FV: Rs.10)
By Laxmikant Bhole
Company Overview: Established in 1982, Panasonic Carbon India Company Ltd Book Value Rs.200.22
(Panasonic Carbon) (formerly Indo Matsushita Carbon Co. Ltd) manufactures and sells RoE 18.24%
Midget Electrodes (carbon rods) for dry cell batteries. It manufactures over 40 sizes and RoCE 17.92%
6 grades of carbon rods. It is the sole manufacturer of high standard carbon rods in India. Quick Ratio 17.97%
It exports to Poland, Peru, Thailand, Indonesia, Brazil, Costa Rica, China, Africa, etc.
In FY18, its domestic sales in terms of volume and
value were 892 million pieces and Rs.12.99 crore Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
respectively i.e. 85% and 82% of the sales in FY17. Particulars FY18 FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14
Sales declined mainly due to the implementation of Net Revenue 51.11 54.95 54.92 46.93 40.25
GST, which has now been reduced to 18% from 28% Growth (%) -6.98% 0.05% 17% 16.6% -
earlier. Export sales in terms of volume and value were
1,583 million pieces and Rs.29.6 crore respectively v/s EBITDA 18.86 24.56 21.30 14.66 10.37
1,576 million pieces and Rs.31.6 crore in FY17. Last Margin (%) 36.9% 44.7% 38.79% 31.23% 25.76%
year, its African market sales were hit on account of the PAT 12.3 15.79 13.46 9.14 6.85
unstable political situation in African countries and due
Margin (%) 23.87% 28.74% 24.51% 19.48% 16.99%
to import of lower cost batteries from China which
resulted in lower production of batteries in Africa.
However, Panasonic Carbon managed to get additional export orders from the Panasonic group of companies in other
regions. It sold 2,475 million carbon rod pieces in FY18 v/s 2,632 million pieces in FY17.
Panasonic Carbon has introduced high speed and high safety mixer machines with variable speed drives to reduce the
process time. It also enhanced its production capacity of smaller sized carbon rods apart from introducing on line
stacking arrangement to R03 line to reduce manufacturing time and inventory. These measures are likely to boost its
profitability in the coming quarters.
Domestic Outlook: The consumption of electricity is growing by the day as humans are heavily dependent on electric
appliances. Dry cell batteries are an essential element for various sectors such as automotive, telecom, power, industrial,
etc. India is expected to be the third largest automotive market by 2030. Industrial batteries consumption is powered by
usage in telecom, railways, power and other industrial applications. India’s lead acid battery market, which stood at
$4.47 billion in 2016, is expected to grow at over 8% CAGR to $7.89 billion by 2022 driven by the strong demand for
automobiles, continuous expansion of telecom infrastructure, increasing number of solar power projects and the
growing IT industry. Two-wheeler production is expected to increase from 19 million units in 2016 to 50 million by
2026, which in turn will boost the demand for lead acid batteries. In addition, introduction of 5G will result in
deployment and upgradation of new telecom towers across the country thereby positively influencing India’s lead acid
battery market. Moreover, every builder nowadays provides a backup source for electricity and hence, the demand for
inverters has risen. Since invertors require dry cell batteries, the demand for dry cell batteries is also on the rise. Electric
vehicles will also boost the demand for batteries. Thus, the future of dry cell battery players like Panasonic Carbon
appears bright.
Financials: Panasonic Carbon exhibits a strong balance sheet with a small equity capital of Rs.4.8 crore and a virtually
debt-free status (both on long-term as well as working capital basis). For FY18, it achieved a turnover of Rs.51.11 crore

A Time Communications Publication 9

with PAT of Rs.12.30 crore. Exports constituted 67% of the total sales. Its sales in Q1FY19 were the highest in the last 7
quarters at Rs.12.18 crore with PAT of Rs.3.43 crore.
Panasonic Carbon’s NPM (net profit margin) is much higher than its peers although they may not have the exact
business model. Graphite India operates at 6-8% NPM, Esab India 6-8%, Ador Welding 4-7% while Panasonic Carbon
operates at 25-30% NPM. Only HEG’s NPM is higher than Panasonic Carbon at 40-45%.
Panasonic Carbon reported an EPS of Rs.25.63 in FY18. Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of 16x and a forward P/E of
12x FY19E and 11x FY20E earnings, which is much lower than its peers. At the CMP, the stock trades at P/BV of 2.09x,
which is also lower than its peers. HEG currently trades at 9.39x P/BV, Graphite India 7x and Esab India 3.48x.
Panasonic Carbon has regularly paid dividends over the last 15 years with a healthy dividend payout ratio of 27% in
FY18. Its dividend yield at the CMP works out to over 2.4%.
Key Positives:
1. Exports have consistently grown at 30-35% over the last 2-3 years, which is big positive for the company.
2. Depreciating rupee will help boost the profitability of the company.
3. On expectations of a sustained overseas demand, the company has enhanced its production capacity of R-6 and R-03
carbon rods to meet domestic as well as exports demand going forward.
4. The management is hopeful of maintaining domestic sales by focusing on quality and timely supply.
5. Panasonic Corporation (Japan), its parent company, holds 63.31% stake in the company.
Concerns:
1. Last year, many chemical factories in China were shut down due to stringent pollution control measures taken by
the Chinese government. Consequently, Panasonic Carbon’s input cost rose due to shortage of raw material. This
might affect its margin going forward.
2. High crude oil prices lead to higher raw material input cost.
3. Profitability dipped and domestic sales were flat in FY18.
4. There was a steep rise in electricity cost last year. However, the management is taking measures to reduce energy
consumption by promoting energy conservation activities.
5. Its sales depend on the battery market of various countries. However, the management is confident of maintaining
and improving its current year’s level of export quantities going forward.
Conclusion: Panasonic Carbon exhibits sound fundamentals and trades at steep discounts to its peers. The stock has
fallen sharply in line with the recent crash in mid-caps, which provides an excellent entry point for long-term investors.
Investors can start accumulating the stock on dips for excellent returns in the next 12-18 months. The stock’s 52-week
high/low is Rs.946.95/378.25. Its market cap stands at Rs.201.12 crore. Assuming a conservative EPS of Rs.32 for FY19
on its current P/E of 16x, the stock is likely to cross Rs.500 in the next 12 months.
Courtesy: www.profitpokket.com

STOCK PICKS
By Kushal Lakhani

HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd

(BSE Code: 540777) (CMP: Rs.373.75) (FV: Rs.10)
HDFC Standard Life Insurance Company Ltd at Rs.365-371 offers a good buying opportunity for a price target of Rs.375-
380-384-389-395-401. Its support level is placed at Rs.350 and is trading at the daily RSI of 31 and weekly RSI of 32. The
promoters hold 80.9% of the equity capital, FIIs hold 9.03% and DIIs hold 1.97%, which leaves just 8.09% as floating
stock with retail investors.
*****

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd

(BSE Code: 532296) (CMP: Rs.600.85) (FV: Re.1)
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd at Rs.590-600 offers a good buying opportunity for a price target of Rs.606-612-618-623-
628-635. Its support level is placed at Rs.575 for the short term. The stock is available at a P/E of 24x v/s industry P/E of

A Time Communications Publication 10

29x. Last week, the company executed a business purchase agreement for transferring its API business to its wholly-
owned subsidiary - Glenmark Life Sciences. This transaction is expected to be completed in the next 2-3 months.
******

Ashok Leyland Ltd

(BSE Code: 500477) (CMP: Rs.115.75) (FV: Re.1)
Ashok Leyland Ltd at Rs.110-115 offers a good buying opportunity for a price target of Rs.119-123-125-129-132. Its
support level is placed at Rs.103 for the short term. The stock is available at a P/E of 18x v/s industry P/E of 28x. The
stock trades at the daily and weekly RSI of 40. It had taken strong support at Rs.105-107 in the recent market crash.

MARKET REVIEW

Equity markets rally

By Devendra A Singh
The Sensex advanced 356.59 points to settle at 34733.58 while the Nifty advanced 156.05 points to close at 10472.5 for
the week that ended on Friday, 12 October 2018.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its fourth bi-monthly monetary policy statement for 2018-19 kept the policy repo
rate unchanged at 6.5%.
Rashesh Shah, President of FICCI, welcomed RBI’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged. According to him, this move
sends positive signal to the industry and will maintain the momentum in investments seen lately.
“Investment revival is very important at this juncture especially when the IBC process shows that the credit culture in
India is changing for the better which will help not only in handling the existing NPAs (non-performing assets) but will
also curb the creation of fresh NPAs,” Shah added.
He further said that while there is an upside risk to inflation due to oil prices, the recent measures taken by the
government including reduction in excise duties and VAT on fuel will mitigate the inflationary pressure to some extent.
“We are confident that the government and the RBI will keep a vigil on the volatile global conditions and take
appropriate actions to ensure macro-economic stability and enable the country to traverse a firm growth path of over
8% starting with the current financial year,” he added.
Moreover, the RBI announced to inject Rs.120 billion liquidity into the system on 11 October 2018. The RBI will
purchase government bonds worth the amount with maturity ranging between 2020 and 2030 to meet the festival
season demand for funds. The RBI will conduct purchase of Government Securities under Open Market Operations
(OMOs). It will purchase Government Securities for an aggregate amount of Rs.360 billion in October 2018. The auctions
will be conducted in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th week of October.
India’s service sector continued to expand in the previous month. The Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index was
at 50.9 in September 2018, down from 51.5 in August 2018 due to higher fuel costs, rising crude oil prices and a stronger
US dollar, which raised the prices of imported goods. The seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index
was at 51.6 in September 2018, down from 51.9 in August and at its lowest level in four months.
Paul Smith, Economics Director at IHS Markit, said that growth of India’s services economy spluttered during September
2018 amid reports of faltering demand for services. Despite a slight pick-up in manufacturing output growth during the
month, overall private sector activity rose at the weakest rate since May 2018.
“Whilst companies were not completely discouraged to hire additional workers, the rate of employment growth was
slower across the private sector as a whole and therefore pointed to a little more caution amongst firms heading into the
final quarter of the year,” he added.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its global growth forecasts as trade tensions between USA and trading
partners have started to hit economic activity worldwide.
The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report stated that the global economy is now expected to grow at 3.7% this
year and next year, down 0.2 percentage points from its earlier forecast.
Maurice Obstfeld, IMF Chief Economist, said that earlier projections now appear to be over-optimistic given that risks
from further disruptions in trade policies have become more prominent.

A Time Communications Publication 11

“Two major regional trade arrangements are in flux: i) The NAFTA, where a new trilateral agreement awaits legislative
approval; and ii) the European Union with the latter negotiating the terms of Brexit. Further, US tariffs on China and
more broadly on auto and auto part imports may disrupt established supply chains especially if met by retaliation,” he
added.
The IMF also cut its forecasts for
global trade volume. The total
good and services flow is The new ratnas at Panchratna!
expected to grow 4.2% this year After the sad demise of Mr. G. S. Roongta on 2nd July 2017, we were at a loss to
and 4% next year, down 0.6 and replace our crown jewel. But so good is our team of analysts that their first four
0.5 percentage points issues of Panchratna have already clocked in results.
respectively from earlier
estimates. Given below is their maiden score
and we are sure this team will improve as we go along.
The two economies in the center
of the ongoing tariff fight i.e. USA Sr. Date Scrip Name Recom. Highest % Gain
and China are also expected to No. Rate (Rs.) since (Rs.)
grow slower than initially 1 October 2017 Stock A 74.50 147.80 98
projected. The IMF maintained its Stock B 37.05 44.10 19
stance that USA and China will Stock C 90.95 100 10
grow 2.9% and 6.6% respectively Stock D 77.70 94.40 21
this year but both are likely to Stock E 41.70 83.85 101
slow down more than expected to 2 January 2018 Stock F 74.80 86 15
2.5% and 6.2% respectively in Stock G 42 44.80 7
2019. Stock H 60.85 63.90 5
The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s Stock I 90.45 713.70 689
GDP Now forecast model on Stock J 57.30 59.70 4
Wednesday, 10 October 2018, 3 April 2018 Stock K 54.55 63.10 16
showed that the US economy is Stock L 29.95 37.75 26
expanding at a 4.2% annualized Stock M 65.65 81.85 25
rate in Q3FY18. Stock N 99.70 125 25
Stock O 143.05 186 30
Key indices gained on Monday, 8
4 July 2018 Stock P 76.60 86 12
October 2018, on buying of
Stock Q 59.05 66.40 12
equities. The Sensex edged 97.39
Stock R 46.20 52.20 13
points higher to close at
Stock S 48.45 54.50 12
34474.38 while the Nifty gained
Stock T 82.10 99.05 21
31.6 points to close at 10348.05.
Key indices fell on Tuesday, 9 The latest edition of ‘Panchratna’ was released on 1st October 2018
October 2018, on profit-booking.
The Sensex tanked 174.91 points So hurry up and book your copy now!
to close at 34299.47 while the Subscription Rate: Rs.2500 per quarter, Rs.4000 for two quarters & Rs.7000 per annum.
Nifty was down 47 points to close You can contact us on 022-22616970, 22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com
at 10301.05.
Key indices advanced on Wednesday, 10 October 2018, on strong buying by the FIIs. The Sensex gained 461.42 points to
close at 34760.89 while the Nifty advanced 159.05 points to close at 10460.10.
Key indices corrected on Thursday, 11 October 2018, on negative global markets cues. The Sensex plunged 759.74
points to close at 34001.15 while the Nifty lost 225.45 points to close at 10234.65.
Key indices ended higher on Friday, 12 October 2018, as global crude oil prices declined. The Sensex surged 732.43
points to close at 34733.58 while the Nifty gained 237.85 points to close at 10472.5.
National and global macro-economic figures and events will dictate the movement of the markets and influence investor
sentiment in the near future. Market participants will closely watch the fluctuations in global crude oil prices, US-China
trade war along with developments in the Middle East and their impact on the global markets.

A Time Communications Publication 12

 STOCK BUZZ
By Subramanian Mahadevan

Karur Vysya Bank: Robust asset quality

(BSE Code: 590003) (CMP: Rs.75.05) (FV: Rs.2)
KarurVysya Bank (KVB) is a mid-sized bank in the private sector space that operates through a network of 790+
branches with 2,300+ ATMs and cash recyclers. 82% of its business is concentrated in South India with ~73% of its
branch footprint in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. As at Q1FY19, its total business was Rs.1029 billion. The bank is
capitalized with a total CAR (capital adequacy ratio) of 14.4% (Basel-III). Gross NPAs were reported at 6.56% with
provision coverage ratio (PCR) of 56.5%.
The bank has a diversified loan book and is working towards increasing the share of its granular exposure through
adoption of technology. It is consciously reducing the average ticket size of its corporate as well as commercial banking
exposure. Internal risk management is being strengthened to improve the quality of its portfolio. It is focused on risk
adjusted growth and it expects a near-term growth in the mid-teens.
The new CEO (ex- Citi banker) is focused on new hires, technology implementation and risk management to give the
institution a more agile and modern look. Asset quality issues might linger for a couple of quarters but these issues are
nearing an end. Given that the bank is well capitalized, it can strengthen its presence in the segments where PSU banks
are giving up market share.
The stock trades at attractive valuations of 1.1x FY19 book and 1.4x FY20 adjusted book. Investors can accumulate the
stock for at least 50% returns in the next two years. After the steep correction witnessed in the NBFC space, the stock is
ripe for serious long-term investors.
*****

Vodafone Idea Ltd: Consolidated network

(BSE Code: 532822) (CMP: Rs.35.90) (FV: Rs.10)
Vodafone Idea Ltd (formerly Idea Cellular), an Aditya Birla and UK-based Vodafone Ltd company, is India’s third largest
wireless operator with a revenue market share of more than 25% post consolidation. It is a leading GSM mobile services
operator with over 72 million subscribers under the brand ‘Idea’. It operates in all the 22 telecom circles of which 15 are
classified as established service areas and 7 as new service areas. It is a pan India integrated GSM operator covering the
entire telephony landscape of the country with NLD (National Long Distance) and ILD (International Long Distance)
operations. It offers affordable and world-class mobile services besides basic voice and SMS services to high-end value
added and general packet radio service (GPRS) services such as Blackberry, Datacard, Mobile TV and Games.
In 2015, Microsoft had tied up with Idea Cellular to launch operator billing on the Windows Store for the latter’s
subscribers. Idea Cellular has successfully retained the crucial 900 MHz spectrum and won 54 MHz of the 900 MHz
spectrum. Videocon Telecommunications had sold its spectrum in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh (West) circles to Idea
Cellular at a valuation of Rs.3310 crore in the same year.
Idea had launched high-speed 4G and 4G LTE services in all the four telecom service areas of South India. The big-bang
entry of Reliance Jio and unceremonious death of regional operator – Aircel and national player – Reliance
Communications forced the telecom industry for consolidation enabling Vodafone and Idea to join hands for merger.
Pricing power will emerge soon where existing players with good network will continue to make money.
The stock has corrected significantly in line with the market crash, which offers an excellent entry point from a long-
term perspective. The promoters hold more than 70% stake in the company. The stock is ready to take a leap on any
positive news about the company or the sector. Buy now and hold for two years to make up to 100% returns.

EXPERT EYE
By Vihari

Power Finance Corporation Ltd: Powering gains

(BSE Code: 532810) (CMP: Rs.78.60) (FV: Rs.10)

A Time Communications Publication 13

Incorporated in 1986, New Delhi based Power Finance Corporation Ltd (PFC) is a financial institution (FI) that finances
the power sector with an aim to integrate and develop power and its associated sectors. It is registered as a Non-
Banking Finance Company (NBFC) with the RBI and is a Schedule-A Navratna CPSE under the administrative control of
the Ministry of Power (MoP).
PFC was incorporated with the objective to provide financial resources and encourage the flow of investments to the
power and associated sectors, to work as a catalyst to bring about institutional improvements in streamlining the
functions of its borrowers in financial, technical and managerial areas to ensure optimum utilization of available
resources and to mobilize various resources from domestic and international sources at competitive rates.
PFC is a dominant player in the NBFC space with a market share of ~20%. Its product portfolio comprises financial
products and services like project term loans, equipment lease financing, discounting of bills, short-term loans,
consultancy services, etc. for various power projects in Generation, Transmission and Distribution segments as well as
for renovation and modernization of existing power projects.
PFC has been designated as the nodal agency
by MoP for development of Ultra Mega
Power Projects (UMPPs), with a capacity of
One more successful year for
at least 3,500 MW each under the tariff- TF+ subscribers…
based competitive bidding route. MoP is the “Think Short-Term Investment…
‘facilitator’ for the development of these
Think TECHNO FUNDA PLUS”
UMPPs while Central Electricity Authority
(CEA) is the ‘Technical Partner’. Being large Techno Funda Plus is a superior version of the Techno Funda
in size, these projects will meet the power column that has recorded near 90% success since launch!
needs of the country through transmission of
power through regional and national grids. Every week, Techno Funda Plus identifies three fundamentally
sound and technically strong stocks that can yield handsome
For FY18, PFC reported 175% higher PAT of returns against their peers in the short-to-medium-term.
Rs.5855.22 crore on 2% lower sales of
Rs.26414.47 crore with an EPS of Rs.22.18 Most of our recommendations have fetched excellent returns to
and a dividend of 78% was paid. During our subscribers. Of the 156 stocks recommended between 11
Q1FY19, it reported 22% higher PAT of January 2016 and 2 January 2017 (52 weeks), we booked 2-43%
Rs.1373.26 crore on 4% higher sales of profit in 125 stocks, 28 triggered the stop loss of 1-21%.
Rs.7052.05 crore with an EPS of Rs.5.2. Its Of the 156 stocks recommended between 9 January 2017 and 1
capital adequacy ratio (CAR) stood at 20% January 2018 (52 weeks), we booked 7-41% profit in 124 stocks,
while net NPA (non-performing assets) ratio 30 triggered the stop loss of 2-18%.
stood at 7.6% v/s 10.6% in Q1FY18. The
management is expected to maintain the Of the 99 stocks recommended between 8 January 2018 and 20
dividend payout ratio of 30% going forward. August 2018 (33 weeks), we booked 3-41% profit in 61 stocks, 11
triggered the stop loss of 4-8% while 27 stocks are still open.
PFC’s loan asset book grew 14% to
Rs.279000 crore as at FY18, of which the If you want to earn like this,
government sector accounts for ~82% while subscribe to TECHNO FUNDA PLUS today!
the private sector accounts for the balance
For more details, contact Money Times on
~18%. The management does not see any 022-22616970/22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
stress in its government sector loan book. Of
the Rs.51000 crore private sector loan book, Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 3 months: Rs.6000;
6 months: Rs.11000; 1 year: Rs.18000.
~Rs.20000 crore (i.e. 7% of the overall loan
book) is regular which means that ~89% of
the loan book does not show any stress.
PFC recorded the strong highest ever disbursements of Rs.64400 crore in FY18 with 100% growth to Rs.13750 crore in
refinancing and a 260% surge to Rs.9000 crore in disbursements to the renewable power sector. The management
targets 10-15% loan growth for FY19.
PFC is focused on diversifying its borrowing profile. It has completed $800 million of a syndicated loan deal, $400
million of green bonds issuance and $460 million of FNCR (foreign currency non-repatriable) bond issuance. It also
sealed a Rs.50000 million structured debt deal with LIC.
NPAs reduced to 7.4% in FY18 from 10.6% in FY17. Excluding the impact of the RBI circular issued in February 2018
which revised the NPA recognition and resolution framework, gross NPA and net NPA ratios have actually declined to

A Time Communications Publication 14

5.28% and 3.52% respectively in FY18. During the year, its exposure to state sector was 66%; central government 10%;
joint sector 12%; and private sector 12%.
With an equity capital of Rs.2640 crore and reserves of Rs.37561.66 crore, PFC’s consolidated share book value works
out to Rs.151. During FY16, PFC had issued a 1:1 bonus. Currently, the President of India (government) holds 65.1% of
the equity capital, FIIs hold 11.8%, domestic FIs, Mutual Funds and Banks together hold 15.1% and PCBs hold 1.3%,
which leaves 6.2% stake with the investing public.
According to the Planning Commission estimates, PFC is expected to fund sizeable worth of power projects going
forward. Apart from the high demand for credit, PFC’s access to Section 54EC bonds and tax-free bonds for low-cost
funding may help it maintain its margins. Moreover, with a stable government at the Centre, infra bottlenecks are
expected to be eliminated, which will be positive for its growth and asset quality.
Thrust in rural electrification, renewable energy and decentralized distributed generation (DDG) will inter-alia enhance
the penetration of electricity in the country, which will drive the demand further. With timely interventions by the
government in addressing the nagging issues affecting the power industry, the outlook for the sector is quite optimistic
with ample market opportunities available for financial products. Thus, the prospects for PFC are quite promising going
forward.
The National Electricity Fund (an interest subsidy scheme) will be a potential source of income in future. Estimated
aggregate capacity addition of 180 GW during the XII and XIII Five Year Plans put together (FY13-22) at an estimated
investment of over Rs.34 lakh crore will continue to drive the prospects of the power sector in the country.
The PFC share is recommended in view of the recent initiatives that have boosted hopes of accelerated reforms in the
power sector. These include the financial restructuring package of SEBs (state electricity board), increased momentum
in the signing of fuel supply agreements by Coal India and expectation of further tariff hikes by state power distribution
companies (many state boards have hiked tariffs in the last 12-18 months). This should drive the investment cycle and
aid loan growth for lenders such as PFC next year.
PFC plans to harness all resources to capture the optimal share of the funding business of the estimated debt
requirement of the power sector. The stock is likely to notch an EPS of Rs.24 in FY19. At the CMP of Rs.78.60, the stock
trades at a P/E of just 3x on FY19E EPS. A reasonable P/E of 5x will take its share price to Rs.120+ in the medium-term.
The stock’s 52-week high/low is Rs.149.3/67.6.

MARKET OUTLOOK

Nifty in broad range 10300-10600

By Rohan Nalavade
The markets are very volatile and the Nifty will move in a broad range of 10300-10600. If any of these levels are
breached on either side, expect a 400-500 point movement in that direction this month. No fresh movement will be seen
until the Nifty breaks this range. So, take light positions in the market and accumulate small quantities of good stocks
like Yes Bank, Jubilant Foodworks, etc. which have shown positive moves for trading.
It is important for the Nifty to cross 10600 for selling pressure to ease otherwise the sentiment will remain negative as
global markets have also started to panic. The US markets corrected sharply last week. Crude oil prices seem to have
stabilized. But if it starts rising again, the markets will once again come under pressure. Therefore, be cautious. 10500-
10600 levels can be used for selling with a stop loss of 10645 for fresh levels of 10350-10300.
Among stocks,
 Mahindra & Mahindra looks good above Rs.773 for Rs.780-790 (SL: Rs.760)
 State Bank of India looks weak at Rs.264 for Rs.258-256-250 (SL: Rs.270)
Learn W.D. Gann square techniques to identify the market trend in our upcoming session on Saturday, 27 October 2018. To
know more, please contact us on 9769212176 and book your seats.

A Time Communications Publication 15

 TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel REVIEW
Lahoti Overseas Ltd Goldiam International recommended at Rs.69.40 on 1 October
2018, zoomed to Rs.78 appreciating 12% in just 2 weeks!
(BSE Code: 531842) (CMP: Rs.19.45) (FV: Rs.2)
Lahoti Overseas Ltd (LOL), together with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the exports of cotton yarns and fabrics. It offers
carded and combed ring spun yams of coarse and fine counts, ply yarns, special yarns and grey fabrics. It also generates,
supplies, distributes and transmits wind and solar power. It primarily exports cotton yarn to Far East Asian countries i.e.
South Korea, China, Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Vietnam as well as to Gulf, Mediterranean, European, North and
South American markets.
With an equity capital of Rs.5.85 crore and reserves of Rs.105.80
crore, LOL’s share book value works out to Rs.38.27 and its Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
price:book value ratio stands at just 0.51x. The promoters hold Particulars Standalone Consolidated
59.81% of the equity capital, which leaves 40.19% stake with Q1FY19 Q1FY18 FY18 FY17
the investing public. Sales 154.93 99.05 450.74 546.6
During Q1FY19, LOL reported 307% higher PAT of Rs.5.21 crore PBT 7.2 1.88 6.56 14.14
on 56% higher sales of Rs.154.93 crore and an EPS of Rs.1.86. Tax 1.99 0.6 2.81 3.12
Investors must note that the standalone PAT reported for PAT 5.21 1.28 3.75 11.02
Q1FY19 was higher than the consolidated PAT of Rs.3.75 crore EPS (Rs.) 1.86 0.44 1.29 3.78
reported for FY18. It paid 10% dividend for FY18.
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 7.34x and is available at 39% discount from its 52-week high of Rs.31.9
recorded in November 2017. Based on its financial parameters, the stock looks quite attractive at the current level.
Investors can buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.14. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.30-32 in the medium-to-long
term.
********

Amal Ltd
(BSE Code: 506597) (CMP: Rs.147.45) (FV: Rs.10)
Amal Ltd was promoted by the Piramal group in 1974-75 and its controlling interest was sold to Atul Ltd of the Lalbhai
group in 1985-86. The Lalbhai group is a leading industrial group which comprises companies like Atul Ltd and Arvind
Ltd. Amal Ltd manufactures and markets bulk chemicals such as Sulphuric Acid, Oleum and their downstream products
such as Sulphur Dioxide and Sulphur Trioxide. These chemicals are predominantly used by the Chemical and Dyestuff
industries. Its plant is located at Ankleshwar in Gujarat.
Amal Ltd has an equity capital of just Rs.9.43 crore. The promoters hold 65.51% of the equity capital, which leaves
34.49% stake with the investing public.
Amal Ltd posted strong operational numbers for Q2FY19 Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
with 10% higher PBT at Rs.3.5 crore v/s Rs.3.17 crore in Particulars Q2FY19 Q2FY18 H1FY19 H1FY18 FY18
Q2FY18. It paid Rs.0.97 crore tax against nil in the
Sales 9.19 7.98 18.45 14.41 32.32
previous corresponding quarter and therefore, PAT
PBT 3.5 3.17 7.51 4.56 9.7
declined to Rs.2.54 crore. Its sales were 15% higher at
Rs.9.19 crore. During H1FY19, PBT jumped 65% to Tax 0.97 - 2.01 - -
Rs.7.51 crore and it paid Rs.2.01 crore tax against nil in PAT 2.54 3.17 5.5 4.56 9.7
the previous corresponding period. EPS (Rs.) 2.69 3.36 5.83 4.84 10.3
In spite of the tax payment, PAT jumped 21% to Rs.5.5 crore on 28% sales of Rs.18.45 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.5.83.
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of 13.06x, which is the cheapest in the chemicals sector. Atul Ltd trades at around
Rs.3220.70 while Amal Ltd is available at 35% discount to its 52-week high of Rs.226 recorded in November 2017.
Based on its financial parameters, the stock looks quite attractive at the current level. Investors can buy this stock with a
stop loss of Rs.125. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.190-200 in the medium-to-long term.

A Time Communications Publication 16

 BULL’S EYE

Suven Life Sciences Ltd

(BSE Code: 530239) (CMP: Rs.258.15) (FV: Re.1)
By Pratit Nayan Patel
We had recommended this stock earlier at Rs.229.25 on 30 July 2018, where-after it zoomed to Rs.337.7. The stock is
available at attractive valuations again due to the sharp correction in the overall market. We believe this is a good
opportunity to enter or average as the company posted strong numbers for Q1FY19.
Company Background: Hyderabad based Suven Life Sciences Ltd (Suven) is a pharmaceutical research expert that
leverages its innovation capability to undertake NCE (new chemical entity) based CRAMS (contract research and
manufacturing services) projects involving discovery and development of molecules for innovator companies. Its
expertise in process research, custom synthesis and NCE development support services has earned it the respect of
global pharmaceutical companies. Its R&D facilities are located at Hyderabad and Medak while its manufacturing units
are located at Medak, Nalgonda and Visakhapatnam. It has a workforce of 950+ employees and a clientele of 70+ as at 31
March 2018. It has over 110 active CRAMS projects.
Financials: Suven has an equity capital of Rs.12.73 crore backed by reserves of Rs.754.68 crore. The promoters hold
60% of the equity capital, Mutual Funds hold 2.01% and FPIs hold 4.41%, which leaves 33.31% stake with the investing
public.
Performance Review: For FY18, Suven reported 15% higher Performance Review: (Rs. in crore)
income of Rs.625.26 crore with 42% higher PAT of Rs.123.69
crore and an EPS of Rs.9.7. During Q1FY19, it reported 31% Particulars Standalone Consolidated
higher PAT of Rs.38.84 crore on 36% higher income of Q1FY19 Q1FY18 FY18 FY17
Rs.191.66 crore and an EPS of Rs.3.05. It paid 150% dividend Total Income 191.66 141.02 625.26 544.48
for FY18 v/s 100% dividend for FY17.
PBT 59.78 44.45 195.53 123.07
Industry Overview: Medicine remains a topic of intense
Tax 20.94 14.88 71.84 35.88
interest among policy makers, patients, payers and drug
manufacturers. The level of spending, the prices of drugs and PAT 38.84 29.57 123.69 87.19
the allocation of costs among patients, employers, health EPS (Rs.) 3.05 2.32 9.70 6.84
plans, intermediaries and state and federal government
agencies all command great attention.
Hence, the global pharmaceutical industry has always remained in the spotlight as it has a direct correlation with any
nation’s economic strength and healthcare spending levels.
In 2017, spending grew 0.6% net of off-invoice discounts and rebates. Overall, spending reached $453 billion on invoice
basis and $324 billion on net basis. The usage of medicines continues to rise. In 2017, there was a significant increase
within chronic 90-day prescriptions and 42 new active substances were launched. This trend is expected to continue
with about 80-90 orphan drugs approved through 2022, compared to 81 orphan drugs launched in the past five years.
Industry reports indicate that the net total spending growth will average out between 2-5% over the next five years. The
global healthcare contract research outsourcing market, which was valued over $30 billion in 2016, is projected to
witness over 6% CAGR from 2017 to 2025 to cross $54 billion by 2025. Growth will continue to be driven by innovation
and will be offset by slower price growth and the increasing impact of patent expiries.
Outlook: Suven is focused on strengthening its core revenue from the CRAMS business. The launch of SUVN502, a lead
molecule for patients with moderate Alzheimer’s which is in Phase II, will lead to monetisation of this molecule and
ultimately boost the earnings of the company. We expect healthy growth in the core CRAMS business in the coming
years. Clinical trials in USA have picked up on enrolling over 410 patients. The management expects enrollment to be
completed soon and results to be out in Q2FY20.
Further, SUVN-G3031 may initiate Phase II clinical trial in FY19. SUVN-4010 molecule is also under development and
will be ready for Phase II clinical trial in 2019. SUVN-911 is currently under Phase II clinical trials in USA. SUVN-I6107 is
under Phase I enabling GLP (Good Laboratory Practice) toxicology studies in USA.
Conclusion: Suven is a multiyear story with strong management pedigree. The stock trades at a P/E of 19x and looks
quite attractive based on its performance parameters. Investors can accumulate the stock between Rs.250-225 with a
stop loss of Rs.200 for a price target of Rs.325-350 in the next 12-15 months. The stock’s 52-week high/low is
Rs.337.7/163.3 and its market cap stands at Rs.3285.80 crore.

A Time Communications Publication 17

 MID-CAP TWINS: New promise & hope!
Mid-Cap Twins will now be steered by Mr. Dildar Singh Makani,
a stock market veteran of over 30 years and an avid corporate watcher.
He has several profitable investment ideas to his credit.
A fundamental analyst, Mr. Makani will hopefully reinvigorate Mid-Cap Twins to the high
level Money Times products are known for.
Have a look at the grand success story of ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ launched on 1st August 2016
Sr. Scrip Name Recomm. Recomm. Highest % Gain
No. Date Price (Rs.) since (Rs.)
1 Mafatlal Industries 01-08-16 332.85 374.40 12
2 Great Eastern Shipping Co. 01-08-16 335.35 482.40 44
3 India Cements 01-09-16 149.85 226 51
4 Tata Global Beverages 01-09-16 140.10 328.80 135
5 Ajmera Realty & Infra India 01-10-16 137.00 365.65 167
6 Transpek Industry 01-10-16 447.00 1730 287
7 Greaves Cotton 01-11-16 138.55 178 28
8 APM Industries 01-11-16 67.10 84.40 26
9 OCL India 01-12-16 809.45 1620 100
10 Prism Cement (Prism Johnson) 01-12-16 93.25 158.95 70
11 Mahindra CIE Automotive 01-01-17 182.50 301.80 65
12 Swan Energy 01-01-17 154.10 235 52
13 Hindalco Industries 01-02-17 191.55 283.95 48
14 Century Textiles & Industries 01-02-17 856.50 1471.85 72
15 McLeod Russel India 01-03-17 171.75 248.30 44
16 Sonata Software 01-03-17 191.00 428.75 124
17 ACC 01-04-17 1446.15 1869 29
18 Walchandnagar Industries 01-04-17 142.25 272.90 92
19 Oriental Veneer Products 01-05-17 222.30 728 227
20 Tata Steel 01-05-17 448.85 792.55 76
21 Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries 01-06-17 501.40 678.80 35
22 Ujjivan Financial Services 01-06-17 307.45 432.05 40
23 Ashok Leyland 01-07-17 93.85 167.50 78
24 KSB Pumps 01-07-17 759.55 936 23
25 IRB Infrastructure Developers 01-08-17 224.95 286 27
26 JTL Infra 01-08-17 70 208 197
27 Liberty Shoes 01-09-17 187.40 308.90 65
28 Ramco Industries 01-09-17 271.20 326.10 20
29 JSW Energy 01-10-17 73.65 97.50 32
30 Sanco Industries 01-10-17 74.10 97.80 32
31 Shalimar Paints 01-11-17 206 223.15 8
32 JITF Infralogistics 01-11-17 38 57.90 52
33 Aditya Birla Capital 01-12-17 194.65 196.80 1
34 Welspun India 01-12-17 71.80 82.50 15
35 Stock ‘A’ 01-01-18 59.25 71.90 21
36 Stock ‘B’ 01-01-18 72.85 82.20 13
37 Stock ‘C’ 01-02-18 234.90 302.90 29

A Time Communications Publication 18

 38 Stock ‘D’ 01-02-18 164.25 335 104
39 Stock ‘E’ 01-03-18 575.15 635.25 10
40 Stock ‘F’ 01-03-18 211.80 216.80 2
41 Stock ‘G’ 01-04-18 45.80 58.20 27
42 Stock ‘H’ 01-04-18 51 57.35 12
43 Stock ‘I’ 01-05-18 107.55 117.70 9
44 Stock ‘J’ 01-05-18 320.45 360 12
The latest edition of ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ was released on 1 October 2018.

Happy reading & happier money making as Mid-cap Twins enters its third year!
Attractively priced at Rs.2000 per month, Rs.11000 half yearly and Rs.20,000 annually,
‘Mid-cap Twins’ will be available both as print edition or online delivery.

Early Bird Gains – A Performance Review

Early Bird Gains (EBG), our newsletter specializing in multi-baggers, has performed well for the last 15
years. Here’s the performance review of the 52 stocks featured between 27 th September 2017 and 26th
September 2018.
Issue Date of Recomm. Highest since Gain
Scrip Name
No. Recomm. Price (Rs.) (Rs.) %
1 GHCL 27-09-17 210.55 357.50 70
2 Gitanjali Gems 04-10-17 67.20 104.80 56
3 Vivimed Labs 11-10-17 132.85 137.25 3
4 Mangalam Organics 18-10-17 86 510 493
5 Kriti Nutrients 25-10-17 23 56.95 148
6 Premier Explosives 01-11-17 427.70 536.25 25
7 N.R. Agarwal Industries 08-11-17 297.80 615.85 107
8 Sintex Industries 15-11-17 25.20 28 11
9 Larsen & Toubro Infotech 22-11-17 975.85 1469.60 51
10 KPIT Technologies 29-11-17 177.70 314.80 77
11 Talwalkar Better Value Fitness 06-12-17 302.15 358.05 18
12 Security and Intelligence Services (India) 13-12-17 1261.25 1404.80 11
13 Elnet Technologies 20-12-17 190.40 204 7
14 Kellton Tech Solutions 27-12-17 103.10 137 33
15 Lupin 03-01-18 875.70 986 13
16 International Paper APPM 10-01-18 383.35 591.15 54
17 Star Paper Mills 17-01-18 293.10 318.20 8
18 Steel Strips Wheels 24-01-18 1124.30 1473.70 31
19 Yes Bank 31-01-18 353.45 404 14
20 Lincoln Pharmaceuticals 07-02-18 215.10 314 46
21 Dewan Housing Finance Corporation 14-02-18 524.55 690 31
22 Just Dial 21-02-18 439.30 637.80 45
23 Jindal Poly Films 28-02-18 351.60 362.55 3
24 KSE 07-03-18 2497.55 4000 60
25 Rico Auto Industries 14-03-18 71.60 87.25 22
26 Virinchi 21-03-18 105.60 137 30
27 Honeywell Automation India 28-03-18 16466 24178 47
28 Jay Bharat Maruti 04-04-18 482.85 528.90 9
29 Bodal Chemicals 11-04-18 137.10 156.25 14
30 Simmonds Marshall 18-04-18 125.80 154.90 23
31 Mahanagar Gas 25-04-18 908.35 984.40 8

A Time Communications Publication 19

 32 Hinduja Global Solutions 02-05-18 957.05 974.75 2
33 Mishra Dhatu Nigam 09-05-18 135.55 160.40 18
34 Pondy Oxides & Chemicals 16-05-18 414.10 452.70 9
35 Manaksia 23-05-18 54.90 60 9
36 RACL Geartech 30-05-18 65.40 75.50 15
37 Sintex Industries 06-06-18 15.05 17.85 19
38 Natco Pharma 13-06-18 791.95 849 7
39 UFO Moviez India 20-06-18 366.60 396 8
40 Sharda Cropchem 27-06-18 365.45 424 16
41 Vindhya Telelinks 04-07-18 1008.55 1698.80 68
42 Pix Transmissions 11-07-18 174.40 284.40 63
43 Meghmani Organics 18-07-18 86.80 99.05 14
44 Federal Bank 25-07-18 87.70 92.75 6
45 Everest Industries 01-08-18 486.15 597.50 23
46 Rites 08-08-18 275.25 326.55 19
47 International Paper APPM 15-08-18 459.45 591.15 29
48 Patel Engineering 22-08-18 52.30 53 1
49 Jindal Poly Films 29-08-18 280.15 324.95 16
50 Shreyans Industries 05-09-18 179.30 202.35 13
51 Eimco Elecon (India) 12-09-18 368.65 390 6
52 Jasch Industries 19-09-18 62.30 67 7

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A Time Communications Publication 20

 Subscription Form
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A Time Communications Publication 21