Human Resource Forecasting

Assignment # 1

BBA 8th
Submitted To:

Sir Asif Chaudry

Submitted By:

Sidra Swati
 Human Resource Forecasting of National Bank of Pakistan

I. OBJECTIVES

A. To give you practice in forecasting an organization's human resource needs.

B. To familiarize you with some of the factors that affect an organization's future human
resource needs (growth, automation, turnover).
C. To familiarize you with the complexities involved in making human resource forecasts.
D. To point out that all human resource forecasting is based on assumptions and that these
assumptions are critical to the accuracy of the forecast. Incorrect assumptions lead to erroneous
forecasts

II. TIME REQUIRED TO COMPLETE: One to two hours.

You have been given the assignment of forecasting the human resource needs of the National
Bank and Trust Company which currently employs approximately 1,100 people. The bank
presently has SO branch offices located throughout the metropolitan area, each of which employs
approximately 14 individuals. The bank expects to add 38 branches during the next three years.
Branches within the bank differ considerably in size, so the figures given represent averages.

The following table shows the breakdown of Bank’s current staffing.

Table A Present Staffing

Total Employees 1100
Number of Branches 50
Supervisors per Branch 4
Number of Supervisors 200
Tellers per Branch 10
Number of Tellers 500
Branch Employees 700
Main Office Employees 400
On the basis of assumptions given, we have required to find turnover, number of employees to be
hired and year end employment.

Assumptions:

With regard to old branches

 The 50 old branches employ 4 supervisors an 10 tellers each

 30 teller machines are placed in operation on December 31 and replace 30 tellers.
 The bank does not terminate any employees because of the teller machines. Rather, as
teller quit throughout the year, 30 are not replaced.
 Turnover is 30 percent for teller and 20 percent for supervisor.

With regard to new branches

 New branches are added as follows: 10 in one year, 12 in year two and 16 in year three.
 Each new branch employees 14 individuals (4 supervisors and 10 tellers).

With regard to main office, assume that turnover will be 10 percent per year.

Table B: Turnover
Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Old Branch Supervisors 40 40 40
Old Branch Tellers 150 141 141
Main Office 40 40 40
New Branch Supervisors 4 13 24
New Branch Tellers 15 48 90
Total 249 282 321

This table shows the turnover of each employee as per year. As old branch supervisor turnover
rate is 20 percent and total number of supervisors is 200, so 20 percent for 200 is 40 which is the
turnover for year 1. The similar way will be applied for year 2 and year 3. Total number of old
branch tellers is 500 and turnover rate per year is 30 percent. For the first year, the turnover is 30
percent of 500 which is 150. But for second year, as according to assumption that bank does not
terminate any employees because of teller machines rather teller quit throughout the year, 30 are
not replaced, number of employees hired in year 1 are 120 and the turnover for year 1 is 150. So
from 500, 150 tellers left at the end of year 1 in which 30 are not replaced as per teller machine,
350 tellers left at the end in which 120 tellers are hired in year 1 so the total number of teller is
470 at the end of year 1. 30 percent of 470 are 141 which is turnover of tellers for year 2 and
year 3. Total main office employees are 400 and turnover rate is 20 percent per year. So 20
percent of 400 are 40 which is turnover of main office employees. By seeing the assumption
related to new branch teller the calculation done .At the end there is total number to turnover for
each year, for year 1 it is 249, for year 2 is 282 and year three it is 321.

Table C Number of Employees to be Hired

Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Old Branch Supervisors 40 40 40
Old Branch Tellers 120 141 141
Main Office 40 40 40
New Branch Supervisors 44 61 88
New Branch Tellers 115 168 250
Total 359 451 559

This table shows the data of number of employees to be hired for three years. As old
branch supervisors turnover is 40 so at the end of the year 40 new supervisors should be hired.
And will be same for year 2 and year 3. For old branch tellers, as assumed that 30 were not
replaced, turnover was 150 in which 30 tellers were not replaced so 120 tellers to be hired for
year 1. Year 2 and year 3, the turnover was 141 so number of tellers to be hired will be 141.
Main office employees’ turnover is 10 percent which is 40 employees per 400. So 40 vacancies
are available and number of employees to be hired will be 40.The new branch supervisor
turnover is 4 and needed 40 so hiring will be done of 44 employees.Same procedure will be
applied for year 2 and year 3 .At the end there is total number of employees to be hired, for year
1 it is 359 and for year 2 is 451 and year 3 it is 559
Table D: Year End Employment
Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Old Branch Supervisors 200 200 200
Old Branch Tellers 470 470 470
Main Office 400 400 400
New Branch Supervisors 40 88 152
New Branch Tellers 100 220 380
Total 1210 1378 1602

This table shows the number of employment at the end of each year. At end of year 1 the old
branch supervisors will be 200 and same for year 2 and year 3. Old branch tellers at the end of
year 1, 2 and 3 will be 470. Main office employees at the end of the year 1, 2 and 3 will be 400.
For year 1 the new branch supervisors will be 40 as for assumptions that 10 new branches will be
opened in year 1, 12 new branches for year 2 and 16 new branches for year 3. So for year 2 the
number of new branch supervisors will be 88 and for year 3 it will be 152. Same assumption for
new branch tellers, at end of year 1 tellers will be 100, for year 2 they will be 220 and for year 3
there will be 380 new tellers. At the last there is total number of employment for each year, year
1 it is 1210, for year 2 it is 1378 and for year 3 it is 1602.