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Pakistan Technical Daily
KSE‐100: Strong closing suggests further upside potential
The index closed well positive with improved volumes which suggests further For 23 November, 2010
upside.
The Stochastic Oscillator has now reversed and has once again generated a buy Aiyaz M. Hassan
signal, while the RSI too has shown improvement though overbought. Moreover aiyaz.hassan@kasb.com
the MACD maintains its uptrend as well as its buy signal. KASB Securities Limited
Ph. No. (9221) 111 222 000 Ext: 379
Taking the above factors into consideration, stay long for now.
KSE100 (10,986.97, 11,211.61, 10,975.97, 11,205.84, +239.850)
11500 11,560 points 11500
11400 11400
11300 11,345 points 11300 Change
11200
11100
11,189 points
11200
11100
Open 10,986.97 20.97
11,074 points
11000
10,923 points
11000 High 11,211.61 245.61
10900 10900
10800
10,836 points
10800
Low 10,975.97 9.97
10,731 points
10700
10,638 points
10700 Close 11,205.84 239.84
10600 10,539 points 10600
10500
10,430 points
10500 Volume 113,317,904 52.68%
10400
10300 10,260 points
30-DMA
10400
10300
10200
10,120 points 50-DMA 10200 Date 22‐Nov‐10 Change
10100 10100
10000 10000
30‐DMA 10,616.36 39.37
9900
100-DMA
9900 50‐DMA 10,355.36 30.06
9800 9800
9700 200-DMA 9700 200‐DMA 10,070.59 7.89
9600
9500
9600
9500
9‐D RSI 79.89 9.43
Relative Strength Index (76.8409) 14‐D RSI 76.84 6.75
50 50 25‐D RSI 71.56 4.48
28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 6 14 20 27 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22
July August September October November
Date 16‐Nov‐10
30‐DMA 10,576.99
F irst support 11,156 points, second support 11,094 points; 50‐DMA 10,325.30
First resistance 11,267 points, second resistance 11,357 points 200‐DMA 10,062.70
9‐D RSI 70.46
Analysis and Overview: 14‐D RSI 70.09
The index opened on a positive note and remained strong throughout the day to 25‐D RSI 67.08
close well into the green. Volumes increased by 52.68% and stood at 113.32 mln.
The index closed well positive with improved volumes which suggests further Synopsis
upside. Synopsis
PTC Sell on Strength
PSO Buy on Weakness
The Stochastic Oscillator has now reversed and has once again generated a buy PTC
POL Buy
Sell on Strength
signal, while the RSI too has shown improvement, though overbought. Moreover OGDC
PSO Sell
Buy
the MACD maintains its uptrend as well as its buy signal. PPL
POL Sell on Strength
Buy
NML
OGDC Sell
Buy
Taking the above factors into consideration, stay long for now. NBP Buy on Weakness
PPL Buy
The first support is at 11,156 points and the second support is at 11,094 points. The MCB
NML Sell on Strength
Buy
first resistance is at 11,267 points and the second resistance is at 11,357 points. DGKC
NBP Sell on Strength
Buy
LUCK
MCB Sell
Buy
AICL
DGKC Sell
Buy on Weakness
ENGRO
LUCK Buy on Weakness
Buy
AICL Buy on Weakness
ENGRO Buy
Refer to important disclosures on page 4 page1
The Keystone – Equities
Pivot Analysis
SCRIP CLOSE STRATEGY S3 S2 S1 PIVOT R1 R2 R3 Lower Limit Upper Limit
ABL 59.49 Buy on Weakness 57.77 58.24 58.86 59.33 59.95 60.42 61.04 56.52 62.46
AHSL 26.00 Buy 25.22 25.55 25.78 26.11 26.34 26.67 26.90 24.70 27.30
AICL 81.92 Buy on Weakness 79.34 80.43 81.17 82.26 83.00 84.09 84.83 77.82 86.02
AKBL 16.13 Buy 15.57 15.71 15.92 16.06 16.27 16.41 16.62 15.13 17.13
APL 314.42 Buy 302.95 305.47 309.95 312.47 316.95 319.47 323.95 298.70 330.14
ATRL 127.75 Buy on Weakness 123.05 124.65 126.20 127.80 129.35 130.95 132.50 121.36 134.14
BAFL 9.82 Sell on Strength 9.49 9.64 9.73 9.88 9.97 10.12 10.21 8.82 10.82
BOP 9.99 Buy 8.76 9.14 9.57 9.95 10.38 10.76 11.19 8.99 10.99
DGKC 29.10 Buy on Weakness 28.33 28.57 28.83 29.07 29.33 29.57 29.83 27.65 30.56
DOL 7.99 Sell on Strength 7.22 7.48 7.74 8.00 8.26 8.52 8.78 6.99 8.99
ENGRO 184.23 Buy 179.05 180.33 182.28 183.56 185.51 186.79 188.74 175.02 193.44
FABL 14.40 Sell on Strength 13.95 14.10 14.25 14.40 14.55 14.70 14.85 13.40 15.40
FCCL 5.06 Sell 4.81 4.88 4.97 5.04 5.13 5.20 5.29 4.06 6.06
FFBL 34.18 Buy on Weakness 33.32 33.56 33.87 34.11 34.42 34.66 34.97 32.47 35.89
FFC 109.47 Buy on Weakness 108.51 108.76 109.11 109.36 109.71 109.96 110.31 104.00 114.94
HBL 107.02 Buy 104.34 105.05 106.03 106.74 107.72 108.43 109.41 101.67 112.37
HUBC 36.16 Buy 35.19 35.42 35.79 36.02 36.39 36.62 36.99 34.35 37.97
ICI 136.92 Buy on Weakness 131.36 132.71 134.81 136.16 138.26 139.61 141.71 130.07 143.77
KAPCO 39.52 Sell on Strength 38.46 38.78 39.15 39.47 39.84 40.16 40.53 37.54 41.50
LOTPTA 11.88 Sell 11.40 11.59 11.73 11.92 12.06 12.25 12.39 10.88 12.88
LUCK 75.99 Buy 71.66 72.71 74.35 75.40 77.04 78.09 79.73 72.19 79.79
MCB 206.34 Buy 201.45 202.98 204.66 206.19 207.87 209.40 211.08 196.02 216.66
MLCF 2.95 Sell on Strength 2.82 2.84 2.90 2.92 2.98 3.00 3.06 1.95 3.95
NBP 67.40 Buy 64.78 65.41 66.40 67.03 68.02 68.65 69.64 64.03 70.77
NETSOL 19.95 Buy 18.76 19.14 19.54 19.92 20.32 20.70 21.10 18.95 20.95
NIB 2.81 Sell 2.65 2.70 2.76 2.81 2.87 2.92 2.98 1.81 3.81
NML 55.58 Buy 53.27 53.86 54.72 55.31 56.17 56.76 57.62 52.80 58.36
NRL 267.81 Buy on Weakness 257.87 261.94 264.87 268.94 271.87 275.94 278.87 254.42 281.20
OGDC 166.23 Buy 153.34 156.22 161.23 164.11 169.12 172.00 177.01 157.92 174.54
PICT 72.35 Buy on Weakness 71.23 71.72 72.03 72.52 72.83 73.32 73.63 68.73 75.97
PKGS 107.95 Buy on Weakness 102.33 103.52 105.73 106.92 109.13 110.32 112.53 102.55 113.35
POL 268.36 Buy 246.93 251.21 259.79 264.07 272.65 276.93 285.51 254.94 281.78
PPL 201.81 Buy 185.84 189.51 195.66 199.33 205.48 209.15 215.30 191.72 211.90
PSO 290.09 Buy 277.31 280.43 285.26 288.38 293.21 296.33 301.16 275.59 304.59
PTC 19.70 Buy 19.15 19.27 19.49 19.61 19.83 19.95 20.17 18.70 20.70
SHEL 200.82 Buy 194.60 196.05 198.44 199.89 202.28 203.73 206.12 190.78 210.86
UBL 59.76 Buy 57.76 58.25 59.01 59.50 60.26 60.75 61.51 56.77 62.75
page2
The Keystone – Equities
Glossary of Terms
• Doji Star: a Spinning Top which gaps above or below the previous candle. It is a reversal signal, which requires a confirmation from
the next candle. If the Doji star gaps above the previous green candle, it is a bearish signal indicating a top and vice versa.
•
• Dark Cloud Cover: A long white candlestick is followed by a black candlestick. The black candlestick opens above the
white candlestick's high and closes well into the white candlestick's body.
• Inverted Hammer: A candlestick with a long upper shadow and a small body formed in a downtrend. The long upper
shadow and small real body at the bottom of the trading range are cause for concern by the bears. They wonder if this
is the end of the downtrend and take measures to protect their gains. If the next day opens above the body of the
Inverted Hammer, then expectations could be for shorts to cover and propel a reversal rally.
• Bullish Piercing Line: A bottom reversal signal. A red candlestick followed by a green candlestick that opens lower than
the red candlestick's low, but closes more than halfway into the red body. The gap down on the 2nd day perpetuates
the downtrend. However, the 2nd day's close is above the midpoint of the 1st day's body. This suggests to the bears
that a bottom could be forming. The more penetration of the close on the 2nd day to the 1st day's body, the stronger
the reversal signal.
• Hanging Man: A small body (white or black) near the high with a long lower shadow with little or no upper shadow. The
lower shadow should be two or three times the height of the body. It is a bearish formation during an uptrend.
• Shooting Star: A single day pattern that can appear in an uptrend. It opens higher, trades much higher, then closes near
its open. It looks just like the Inverted Hammer except that it is bearish.
• Spinning Top: a candle with a small gap, negative or positive, between the open and close. Spinning tops usually
indicate a trend reversal, but require a confirmation from the next candle. If they are formed at the peak of a rally, they
usually indicate a top and vice versa.
• Engulfing Bearish Formation: A small green candle followed by and contained within a large red candle. This is usually an
indication of a top.
• Engulfing Bullish Formation: A small red body followed by and contained within a large green body.
• Bullish Divergence: occurs when prices reach a new low but an oscillator or RSI reaches a higher bottom than it reached during its
previous decline. This is known as a Class A bullish divergences. Class A bullish divergences are often the best signals of an
impending sharp rally.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a popular oscillator used by traders. The name "Relative Strength
Index" is slightly misleading as the RSI does not compare the relative strength of two securities, but rather the internal strength of
a single security. A more appropriate name might be "Internal Strength Index."
The RSI is a fairly simple formula, but is difficult to explain without pages of examples.
• The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD): is calculated by subtracting 26‐period exponential moving
average from 12‐period exponential moving average. A 9‐period dotted exponential moving average (the "signal line") is
automatically displayed on top of the MACD indicator line.
• The Stochastic Oscillator: is based on stochastic mathematics. It compares where a security's price closed relative to its trading
range over the last x‐time periods. The Stochastic Oscillator always ranges between 0% and 100%. A reading of 0% shows that the
security's close was the lowest price that the security has traded during the preceding x‐time periods. A reading of 100% shows
that the security's close was the highest price that the security has traded during the preceding x‐time periods. The Stochastic
Oscillator indicates an oversold state below 20% and an overbought state above 80%.
page 3
The Keystone – Equities
• Bollinger Bands: is a type of envelope developed by John Bollinger. Bollinger Bands are plotted at standard deviation levels above
and below a moving average. The moving average generally taken is a 20‐DMA, while the standard deviation count is 2. This is a
very good to gauge both the general direction and the volatility.
KASB Securities Limited, 5th Floor, Trade Centre, I.I. Chundrigar Road, Karachi
This report has been prepared by KASB Securities Ltd. ("KASB") and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is to be
used or considered as an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to buy. While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information
contained therein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, we make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it
should not be relied upon as such. From time to time KASB and any of its officers or directors may, to the extent permitted by law, have a
position, or otherwise be interested in any transaction, in any securities directly or indirectly subject of this report. This report is provided solely
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the company accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents.
In particular, the report takes no accounts of the investment objectives, financial situation and particular need of individuals, who should seek
further advice before making any investment. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. The
views expressed in this document are those of the KASB Securities & Economic Research Department and do not necessarily reflect those of
KASB or its directors.
page 4