Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam Defence White Paper - 1
November 27, 2019

Vietnam has just released its 2019 White Paper on national defence which highlights
peace and self-defence as basic principles of the country’s defence policy. We haven't
been able to obtain the full version of the White Paper but some important features
have been summarized in the article below:
https://en.vietnamplus.vn/vietnam-launches-white-paper-on-national-
defence/164318.vnp
Please take a look at the article and let us know what is your assessment about
Vietnam’s viewpoint in “national self-defense” that is mentioned in the 2019 White
Paper.
ANSWER: Vietnam released its 2019 Defence White Paper on 25 November a decade
after its last Defence White Paper. Senior defence officials stressed that Vietnam’s
defence policy is based on the principles of “peace and self-defence.” This stress is
particularly notable in light of rising tensions in the South China Sea since 2009 when
China first officially published its nine-dash line claim to the South China Sea.
Deputy Minister of National Defence Senior Lieutenant General Nguyen Chi Vinh
succinctly expressed Vietnam’s policy of “cooperating and struggling” with outside
powers first adopted in 2003 and reaffirmed in 2013. LTGEN Vinh was quoted in the
media as stating Vietnam respects the “independence, sovereignty, unity, territorial
integrity and [mutual] benefits of all nations in accordance with international law...”
And Vietnam will “persistently struggle and settle all disputes via peaceful means
based on international law, while carrying out necessary measures when its
sovereignty and national [interests] are threatened.”
Foreign observers were quick to point out that LTGEN Vinh’s commitment that
Vietnam “will not use force or threaten the use of force in international relations”
expanded its policy of three no’s in its 2009 Defence White Paper to “four no’s”. LTGEN
Vinh summarized the three no’s as follows: “Vietnam will not join any military
alliances, will not associate with one party to oppose another, will not allow foreign
countries to set up a military [base] in the country…”
LTGEN Vinh was quite clear that “We build our national defence capabilities for
peaceful purposes” but if Vietnam is invaded “we have to bear arms but our struggle
is for peace. In other words, we only resort to the use of the military power [force] to
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self-defend [for self-defence] when the country is attacked, and the national
independence, sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity and national interests are
violated.”
LTGEN Vinh revealed that Vietnam’s defence budget as a percent of GDP has increased
modestly from two percent of GDP in 2010 to 2.36 percent in 2018 or U.S. $5.8 billion.
The publication of the new Defence White Paper was designed to demonstrate
Vietnam’s transparency, promote understanding, and build trust and confidence with
Vietnam’s neighbours. For example, LTGEN Vinh was quoted as saying, “Vietnam’s
defense policy includes both cooperation and struggle but it gives priority first and
foremost to cooperation in promoting defence cooperation with other countries and
international organisations.
As for the aspect of struggle, LTGEN Vinh was also crystal clear: “we frankly point out
differences between us and other countries so as to seek appropriate approaches to
settle the issue and protect out national interests. In short, we will uncompromisingly
struggle against anything that harms our national independence, sovereignty,
territorial integrity and political system.”

Media Identification: Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of

New South Wales, Canberra or Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of
New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam Defence White Paper – 1,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, November 27, 2019. All background briefs are posted
on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 3

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam Defence White Paper - 2
November 27, 2019

We are writing a report about Vietnam’s new Defense White Paper, and request your
assessment of three issues:
Q1. What is your overall assessment of the paper?
ANSWER: Vietnam’s Defence White Paper was released on 25th November and hard
copies were given to Defence Attaches and other members of the diplomatic corps.
As of this writing no electronic copies have appeared on the website of the Ministry
of National Defence in either Vietnamese or English. This must be viewed as a major
failure in Vietnam’s information management.
It is not possible at this stage to make a definitive assessment of the 2019 Defence
White Paper.
Q2. What is the significance of the addition of the fourth no to the traditional three
no’s about not using force or threatening the use of force?
ANSWER: The fourth “no”, Vietnam “will not use force or threaten the use of force in
international relations”, underlines the importance of Vietnam’s commitment to a
defence policy of “peace and self-defence.”
Q3. Speaking at a ceremony on Monday, Deputy Defense Minister Nguyen Chi Vinh
was quoted by local newspapers as saying that “Vietnam will strengthen its defense
cooperation with other countries to enhance its national defense capability”, and that
“Vietnam will consider developing necessary defense and military ties, depending on
developments and in specific situations.” What is your take on Vinh’s comments? Is
he signaling anything here amid China's continued assertiveness in the South China
Sea?
ANSWER: LTGEN Vinh’s statement represents a stiffening of Vietnam’s previous
declaratory policy. Immediately after the introduction of the “three no’s” in the 2009.
Defence White Paper, the document went on to state, “At the same time, Vietnam
attaches great importance to developing defence ties with all other countries on the
basis of respect for each other’s independence, sovereignty and mutual benefit.
Vietnam highly values defence cooperation with neighbouring countries, and
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traditional friends while developing defence links with other countries sharing the goal
of peace, independence and development.”
In other words, Vietnam’s general policy on defence cooperation remains the same
but at the same time Vietnam is signalling that if specific threats to Vietnam’s
sovereignty occur, Vietnam reserves the right to strengthen its defence capability by
stepping up defence cooperation with other countries depending on the specific
circumstances at the time.
Of significance is LTGEN Vinh’s elaboration on Vietnam’s policy of “cooperation and
struggle” in effect since 2003 and reaffirmed in 2013. To the best of my knowledge
this policy of “vừa hợp tác vừa đấu tranh” has not appeared in public defence
documents. According to the media, LTGEN Vinh was quite clear when he stated
Vietnam will “persistently struggle and settle all disputes via peaceful means based on
international law, while carrying out necessary measures when its sovereignty and
national [interests] are threatened.” LTGEN Vinh then went on to say, “We build our
national defence capabilities for peaceful purposes” but if Vietnam is invaded “we
have to bear arms but our struggle is for peace. In other words, we only resort to the
use of the military power [force] to self-defend [for self-defence] when the country is
attacked, and the national independence, sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity and
national interests are violated.”

Media Identification: Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of

New South Wales, Canberra or Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of
New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam Defence White Paper - 2,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, November 27, 2019. All background briefs are posted
on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
 5

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief

ABN # 65 648 097 123
Vietnam Defence White Paper - 3
November 27, 2019

Q1. Do you think that the information in Vietnam’s new Defence White Paper is
important for Vietnam and the world?
ANSWER: I found the following three issues discussed in the Defence White Paper of
major significance: (1) details on the defence budget and arms procurement, (2)
specific mention of China and the South China Sea and (3) the revised policy of four
no’s.
Vietnam provided details of the defence budget in the 2009 Defence White Paper.
Now Vietnam has revealed details of recent spending since 2010. Defence spending
as a percentage of GDP rose after 2010 to an all-time high in 2011 and 2012 and
declined in the past two years. At the same time, Vietnam’s GDP has grown so the
dollar amount that can be spent on defence has increased.
The last Defence White Paper was vague and ambiguous in its discussion of China’s
actions in the South China Sea. Now Vietnam is calling out China by name thus
demonstrating a new assertiveness in its policy of “cooperation and struggle.”
The addition of a fourth no to the previous list of three no’s underscores one of the
main themes of the Defence White Paper, Vietnam’s steadfast commitment to peace
and self-defence. The three no’s were often mis-interpreted by overseas analysis who
failed to read the section that followed: “At the same time, Vietnam attaches great
importance to developing defence ties with all other countries on the basis of respect
for each other’s independence, sovereignty and mutual benefit. Vietnam highly values
defence cooperation with neighbouring countries, and traditional friends while
developing defence links with other countries sharing the goal of peace,
independence and development.”
Deputy Defense Minister LTGEN Nguyen Chi Vinh was quoted by local newspapers as
saying that “Vietnam will strengthen its defense cooperation with other countries to
enhance its national defense capability”, and that “Vietnam will consider developing
necessary defense and military ties, depending on developments and in specific
situations.” In other words, LTGEN Vinh’s comments represent a stiffening of
Vietnam’s previous declaratory policy. In sum, Vietnam’s general policy on defence
cooperation remains the same but at the same time Vietnam is signalling that if
 6

specific threats to Vietnam’s sovereignty occur, Vietnam reserves the right to

strengthen its defence capability by stepping up defence cooperation with other
countries depending on the specific circumstances at the time.
Q2. Do you think the Defence White Paper is as transparent as Deputy Defence
Minister Nguyen Chi Vinh said at the conference launching the White Paper?
ANSWER: Vietnam’s new Defence White Paper is more transparent than its three
predecessors. But no public defence document can be completely transparent about
military doctrine and war-fighting strategies. All that can be said is that the 2019 White
Paper marks an important step forward in transparency on Vietnam’s part.
Q3. What message is Hanoi sending with this White Paper? Is there any hint on the
kinds of procurement the military will make in the coming decade?
ANSWER: LTGEN Vinh asserted that the publication of the new Defence White Paper
was designed to demonstrate Vietnam’s transparency, promote understanding, and
build trust and confidence with Vietnam’s neighbours. The message Vietnam is
sending is that it is building up a credible military force for self-defence.
Since an electronic copy of the text of the Defence White Paper is not available as at
this writing I am unable to comment on future arms procurements. It has been several
years since Vietnam announced its purchase of big-ticket items. Vietnam faces huge
costs in maintaining and modernizing the equipment and platforms it has acquired
over the last ten years. In recent years Vietnam has given priority to procuring
weapons for the ground forces after a long period of favouring the air force and navy.
Q4. What are your comments on the “four no’s principles” policy?
ANSWER: The addition of the fourth no, Vietnam “will not use force or threaten the
use of force in international relations”, reinforces the main theme of the White Paper,
namely that Vietnam adheres to the principles of peace and self-defence.
It is important to note that LTGEN Vinh also spelled out the conditions under which
Vietnam would use force, “We build our national defence capabilities for peaceful
purposes” but if Vietnam is invaded “we have to bear arms but our struggle is for
peace. In other words, we only resort to the use of the military [force] for self-defence
when the country is attacked, and the national independence, sovereignty, unity,
territorial integrity and national interests are violated.”
Q5. How will the U.S. and China responde to Vietnam’s new Defence White Paper?
ANSEWER: Both the United States and China are likely to comment favourably on
Vietnam’s Defence White Paper 2019. China might make some critical remarks on its
coverage of the South China Sea. The U.S. is seeking to engage more with Vietnam as
a defence partner in its Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy and will welcome
Vietnam’s commitment to build up a defensive military force and open defence
cooperation with foreign countries.
Q6. Will the part in the White Paper about the South China Sea in which Vietnam
criticizes China’s recent activities as an infringement of Vietnam’s sovereignty likely to
anger China?
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ANSWER: The sharper commentary on the South China Sea in the 2019 Defence White
Paper is definitely a response to China’s aggressiveness in Vietnam’s Exclusive
Economic Zone and the three-month standoff at Vanguard Bank. This is clear in LTGEN
Vinh’s comments on “cooperation and struggle” at the ceremony to launch the White
Paper. He was quoted in the Vietnamese media as saying, “we frankly point out
differences between us and other countries so as to seek appropriate approaches to
settle the issue and protect our national interests. In short, we will uncompromisingly
struggle against anything that harms our national independence, sovereignty,
territorial integrity and political system.”

Media Identification: Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of

New South Wales, Canberra or Carl Thayer is emeritus professor at The University of
New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy, Canberra.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam Defence White Paper - 3,” Thayer
Consultancy Background Brief, November 27, 2019. All background briefs are posted
on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type,
UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.