15 February 2007

Possible Effects of Global Warming on Air Pollution

Recently, Swedish researchers have investigated how climate changes could affect air
pollution in Europe. They found that part of the increase in surface ozone concentration
observed over Europe in the last decade could be due to changes in meteorology. They
conclude that future air pollution control strategies should take into consideration future
climate change and their effect on the concentration of air pollutants.
Air pollution has been one of Europe's main political concerns since the late 1970s. Air pollution
results in several hundreds of thousands of premature deaths in Europe each year, increased hospital
admissions, extra medication, and millions of lost working days. Consequently, the related health
costs to the European Union are considerable. In this context, surface ozone (O3) and particulate
matter (PM) are two of the most important pollutants in Europe nowadays. In spite of the continuous
efforts, elevated levels of surface O3 have been reported from various areas in Europe recently. 2003
was an extreme year in this regard in central and Western Europe, with excess deaths reported. It has
been previously suggested that levels of air pollution could be affected by possible future climate
change.

In a recent study carried out under the EU-funded research project NEPAP1, Swedish researchers have
evaluated the variability and trends in concentrations of air pollutants, for example O3 and nitrogen
dioxide (NO2) due to variations in the weather. To this end, the researchers used model simulations to
calculate the inter-annual variability and trends of e.g. surface O3 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) over
Europe over the period 1958-2003. They used data produced at the European Centre of Medium-
range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), which is one of the most comprehensive data-sets for studies of
this kind.

The results show that the annual mean NO2 concentration varies between ±50% and the summer
mean O3 concentration varies between -10 and +20% compared to the 46-year period average. In
particular, the researchers observed high concentrations of ozone in central and south-western
Europe and low concentrations in the north-eastern during the last 22 years. The authors argue that
there has been a trend towards higher summer O3 averages over south-western, south-eastern and
central Europe since the 1970s and a trend towards lower summer O3 averages in north-eastern
Europe due to meteorological variability only. Drought and higher temperatures, as observed and
expected in central and southern Europe under climate change, would mean higher O3 values while
increased precipitation and colder conditions would mean less O3.

If the frequency of meteorologically-extreme years, such as the recent one in 2003, is increasing with
a positive increase of O3 of up to 20% in wide areas, the emission levels will have to be further
reduced to counterbalance such increases.

The current work provides new insights regarding the variations and trends in air pollution caused by
changes in meteorology over long periods. Such information may be useful when considering future
control strategies in Europe.
1
NEPAP project: “Network for the support of European policies on air pollution” (http://nepap.ivl.se/index.htm ), supported by the
EU fifth framework programme, key action 2: Global change, climate and biodiversity (EUK2-CT-2002-80019).
Source 1: C. Andersson et al. (2007) “Interannual variation and trends in air pollution over Europe due to climate variability during
1958-2001 simulated with a regional CTM coupled to the ERA40 reanalysis”, Tellus B 59(1): 77.
Source 2: C. Andersson and J. Langner (2007) “Inter-annual Variations of Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide Over Europe During 1958–
2003 Simulated with a Regional CTM”. Focus: Water, Air and Soil Pollution, doi: 10.1007/s11267-006-9088-4.
Contact: Camilla.Andersson@smhi.se
Theme(s): Air pollution, climate change and energy.
Opinions expressed in this News Alert do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission
To cite this article/service: "Science for Environment policy": European Commission DG Environment News Alert Service, edited
by BIO Intelligence Service.

1
European Commission DG ENV
News Alert issue 54

February 2007