OREDA HANDBOOK

There is any
n: number of failures
failure? K: number of installations or samples

System has got failures There is no failures ESTIMATION OF DEMAND

(n≠0) (n=0) PROBABILITIES

1) Since:
How many : The failure rate estimate (mean) one
installations are (k)? level up in the taxonomy hierarchy. n= Number of failures with the
appropiate failure mode.
τ=Total time in service (operational or d= Number of demands
calendar)

Multisampling Homogeneous Sample 2) Calculate the parameters

K>1 K=1

“α” (Scale parameter)

“β” (Shape parameter)
1) Calculate an INICIAL 1) Calculate the mean
5) Let (Standard
Estimate of the mean failure and the standard deviation
deviation)
rate, by pooling data
3) An estimate for the
failure rate is now:

6) Let assume that π(λ)

2) Calculate
is a GAMMA distribution 2) Calculate Lower and Upper
values
4) The standard deviation is
“α” (scale parameter) given by:
“β” (shape parameter)

7) The parameters “α” and

3) Calculate an estimate for σ2
“β” are estimated by:

5) A 90% uncertainty interval

is given by

4) Calculate the FINAL

8) For limits in the
Estimate θ* of the mean
confidence interval are:
failure rate

Universidade Federal do RIo de Janeiro - LEDAV