Id 204

IPRIS DIGEST
EDITOR: PAULO GORJÃO
ASSISTANT EDITORS: PEDRO SEABRA • VASCO MARTINS                                                                        VOLUME 3 • NUMBER 204 • WEDNESDAY, 20 OCTOBER 2010
Source: Wikimedia Commons
SPONSORED BY
PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND SECURITY • IPRIS                                                                                                               1
RUA VITORINO NEMÉSIO, 5 • 1750‐306 LISBOA • PORTUGAL • (+351) 919742652 • IPRIS@IPRIS.ORG 
IPRIS DIGEST
SOUTH AMERICA the famed  checks‐and‐balances of  democracy will  have 

to  work in the most  effecWve  way possible. The PMDB, 
which has already supported a PSDB government during 
Arthur Iuassu Fernando  Henrique  Cardoso's  administraWon 
[PonWXcia Universidade Católica] • Tags: Brazil, Democracy,  (1995‐2002), may change sides again ‐ though not easily 
ElecWons • Arthur Iuassu, “Brazil’s prospects: consensus vs  and not without  charging a price. A powerful or  a more 
division” (Open Democracy, 19 October 2010). balanced government? Brazilians are keeping this once‐
“But  what  will  the  Brazilian  people’s  final  choice  predictable  elecWon  open  unWl  the  last  possible 
portend  for the future of their democracy? If in the end  moment.  Whatever  they  choose,  the  poliWcal  drama 
Dilma Rousseff does make  it,  the  PT and  the  PMDB  in  now unfolding will define their next decade.”
Brazil’s  congress  and  senate  will  create a  solid  poliWcal 
consensus  between  the  execuWve  and  the  legislaWve 
branches that will shape the country's poliWcs in coming  NORTHERN AMERICA
years.  This  hegemonic  alliance  could  provide  strong 
backing  for  a  Dilma‐led  government  and  carry  Brazil 
through  a  further  stage  of  development.  But  it  could  Arnaud de Borchgrave
also be insWtuWonally dangerous for  the country, with a  [Washington Times] • Tags: al‐Qaeda, Barack Obama, Pakistan, 
sharp  polarisaWon  between  the  Brazilian  government  War • Arnaud de Borchgrave, “Examining the world’s 
woes” (Washington Times, 18 October 2010).
and  the  press  adding  to  a  sense  of  tension.  If,  by 
contrast,  José  Serra  wins  ‐  and  this  is  no  longer  “Taliban  insurgency  leader  Mullah  Mohammed  Omar 
impossible  ‐  he  will  probably have  many  difficulWes  in  made  clear  that  no  Afghan  peace  deal  is  possible 
governing with  the congress and  senate.  In  that  event,  without  Pakistan  and  its  ISI  intelligence  agency,  which 
spells  doom  for  U.S.  peace  overtures  with  Taliban 
dissidents.  In  a  major  effort  to  bomb  Taliban  to  peace 
There is a sense of moral outrage at  talks, drones  have flown  21,000 sorWes so  far  this year. 
Unfriendly  persuaders  didn't  work  for  the  Soviets  in 
the imposiIon of a neoliberal 
their  decade‐long  Afghanistan  war.  Nor  for  the  United 
medicine to cure an illness caused by  States in  its 10‐year  Vietnam  War. Bleeding the enemy 
the same neoliberal policies. The  isn't a magic formula ‐ it usually encourages him to fight 
French are not hosIle to reforms: they  harder. If  Pakistan's military conWnues its  opposiWon to 
counterinsurgency  operaWons  in  North  Waziristan, 
just demand those that redistribute  where  Afghan  insurgent  groups  are  sheltered,  the 
wealth and allocate resources to those  naWonal  security  team  has  studied  and  OK'd  for  Mr. 
who need it the most. Any comparison  Obama's approval plans for  high‐alWtude  bombing with 
B‐2s and B‐52s. Osama bin Laden  eluded  similar  strikes 
with May '68, however, may be hasty. against  the  Tora  Bora  mountain  range  in  December 
Philippe Marlière 2001. Minority dissenters say this  would  create  a state 
of war with Pakistan.”
Guardian, 19 October 2010
SPONSORED BY
IPRIS DIGEST
Richard Weitz NaWons  Security  Council  call  upon  U.N.  members  to 

[Hudson InsWtute] • Tags: Defense, Military Reserves, USA •  recognize "PalesWne"  within  those  lines. CriWcal  to  this 
Richard Weitz, “The transformaWon of the U.S. military  second  tacWc  is  a  U.S.  commitment  either  to  support 
reserves” (World Poli7cs Review, 19 October 2010).
such a Security Council resoluWon or, at a minimum, not 
“Defense managers must decide which skills are needed  to  veto  it.  (...)  The  Obama  administraWon  has  a 
in  the  acWve  and  reserve  components,  and  then  jaundiced  view  of  Israel,  but  actual  U.S. recogniWon  of 
"rebalance"  them  accordingly.  The  Pentagon  has  "PalesWne" seems a remote prospect  in  the near  term. 
struggled with this issue for years. Immediately ayer the  The  domesWc  poliWcal  firestorm  for  the  president—
end  of  the  Cold  War,  it  decided  to  concentrate  some  already likely to be badly wounded in midterm elecWons 
skills  ‐‐  such  as  specialized  medicine,  civil  affairs  and  and  deeply concerned  about  his own  prospects in  two 
military  police  ‐‐  in  the reserve  component, since  they  years—would  simply be  too  much. A more indirect  but 
were  rarely  needed.  But  then  the  wars  of  the  former  sWll effecWve course is to let  statehood  emerge  through 
Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Iraq drew  heavily on  these  a  Security  Council  resoluWon.  (...)  No  one  should 
assets. More recently, the U.S. Defense Department has  underesWmate  the  gravity  of  this  threat  to  Israel's 
sought  to ensure that  enough specialized skills reside in  posiWon,  although  Mr.  Obama  could  eliminate  it  at  a 
the  acWve  component  to  allow  the  Pentagon  to  go  to  stroke if he chooses to speak out. We will soon see how 
war  without  needing the reserves for  a few  weeks. But  hosWle to Israel he is prepared to be.”
many  in  the  military  feel  it  is  important  to  require  a 
reserve  call‐up  for  any  major  American  military 
engagement, to  ensure  that the president cannot  wage  To win, Serra will have to draw about 
wars  without  impacWng the  general  populaWon  outside  90 percent of the voters who chose 
of  the  full‐Wme  acWve‐duty branches.  It  is  hoped  that 
third‐place finisher Marina Silva in the 
this  will  in  turn  ensure  that  sufficient  public  support 
exists to see the mission through to its conclusion.” first round ‐‐ she and her party have 
refused to endorse either Rousseff or 
Serra ‐‐ or steal a few of Rousseff's 
John Bolton
[AEI] • Tags: Barack Obama, Foreign Policy, PalesWne, USA •  voters for good measure. That's very 
John Bolton, “Obama and the Coming PalesWnian State” (Wall  unlikely to happen.
Street Journal, 20 October 2010).
The PalesWnian Authority (PA) fully understands that the  Erasto Almeida

talks—and the  "two state soluWon"—will  fail. It needs a  Call/Foreign Policy, 19 October 2010
plan  B. Accordingly, several  ideas are circulaWng to  skip 
bothersome  negoWaWons  with  Israel  and  move 
immediately  to  PalesWnian  "statehood."  Two  different 
tacWcal approaches have emerged. In one, the PA would 
persuade  the  United  States  to  recognize  a  PalesWnian 
state  in  the  West  Bank  and  Gaza  Strip,  within  the 
pre‐1967  cease‐fire  lines  (oyen  characterized,  wrongly, 
as "borders"). The  other  opWon  would have  the  United 
SPONSORED BY
IPRIS DIGEST
Daniel Pipes some Israelis expect their  prime minister to  “search for 

[Hoover InsWtuWon] • Tags: Congressional ElecWons, Israel,  ways  to  buy  Wme  unWl  the  midterm  US  elecWons  in 
USA • Daniel Pipes, “Israel and Congressional  hopes  that  Obama  would  lose  support  and  that  more 
democrats” (Jerusalem Post, 20 October 2010).
pro‐Israel Republicans would be elected.” That an Israeli 
“How  should  American  voters  concerned  with  Israel’s  leader  is  thought  to  stall  for  fewer  congressional 
welfare  and  security  vote  in  the  US  congressional  Democrats  confirms  the  changes  outlined  here. It  also 
elecWons  on  November  2?  This  much  is  clear  ayer  provides guidance for voters.”
almost  two  years  of  DemocraWc  control  over  the 
execuWve  and  legislaWve  branches  of  government: 
Democrats  consistently  support  Israel  and  its  EASTERN ASIA
government  far  less  than  do  Republican.  (...)  A 
consensus  exists  that  the  two  parWes  are  growing 
further  apart  over  Wme.  Pro‐Israel,  conservaWve  Jeff  Kishore Mahbubani
Jacoby of the  Boston Globe finds that  “the old  poliWcal  [NaWonal University of Singapore] • Tags: China, Foreign 
consensus  that  brought  Republicans  and  Democrats  Policy, Japan • Kishore Mahbubani, “The paradox of 
together in support of the Middle East’s only flourishing  blinking” (Japan Times, 20 October 2010).
democracy is breaking down.” (...) Thanks to  changes in  “The  world  has  recently  witnessed  two  major 
the DemocraWc party, Israel has become a parWsan issue  diplomaWc blinks. Japan, facing mounWng pressure from 
in  American poliWcs, an unwelcome  development for  it.  China,  uncondiWonally  released  a  Chinese  trawler 
In  late  March,  during  a  nadir  of  USIsrael  relaWons,  captain  whose  ship  had  rammed  a  Japanese  Coast 
Janine  Zacharia  wrote  in  The  Washington  Post  that  Guard patrol boat. And U.S. President Barack Obama did 
nothing when Israel refused to extend its freeze on new 
PoliIcal freedom is not a peripheral  building  construcWon  in  the  West  Bank,  causing  Israeli 
concern in PalesIne ‐‐ it is central to  West  Bank se|lers to rejoice. In the short run, it is clear 
who  lost.  In  the  long  run,  however,  the  outcome  of 
the U.S. goal of a funcIoning, viable,  backing  down  may not  be  so  clear. China, in  parWcular, 
and democraIc PalesInian state at  should  weigh  carefully the  long‐term  poliWcal  price  of 
peace with Israel. The Obama  celebraWng  its  supposed  victory  over  Japan.  (…)  More 
recklessly,  ayer  securing  the  release  of  the  trawler, 
administraIon must not allow itself, in  China demanded an apology from Japan. A major rule in 
the interest of an elusive stability, to  internaWonal  relaWons  is never  to  make a  demand that 
keep kicking the can down the road,  cannot  be  met.  Having  already  been  humiliated  by 
China, such  an  apology would  be  poliWcally suicidal for 
and oversee the creaIon of yet another  the  Japanese  government.  In  fact,  China  should  hope 
security state in the Middle East. that  no  such  apology  is  forthcoming.  In  the  past  few 
decades,  Japan  has  become  a  sleeping  Wger.  Having 
Matthew Duss
outperformed  the rest  of Asia for  more  than a century, 
Middle East Channel/Foreign Policy, 19 October the Japanese have decided to slow down. Japan has lost 
2010 its drive  to  remain one of  the  world's greatest  powers, 
SPONSORED BY
IPRIS DIGEST
and  it  may  never  regain  it. But,  given  Japan's  history,  gravity of  their  situaWon. Their  government’s  proposal 
one would  be foolish  to underesWmate  the country. (…)  to  raise  the  reWrement  age  from  60  to  62  is  an 
Moreover,  if  Japan  needs  allies  to  balance  the  rise  of  extremely  mild  reform  –  certainly  compared  with  the 
China, it could  easily turn  not  only to  the U.S., but  also  cuts  in  wages,  pensions  and  services  that  are  being 
to Russia and India. In short, the geopoliWcal cards could 
turn out in Japan's favor if China overplays its hand.”
This is not about Armenia, but about 
one facIon of U.S. Armenians. The 
WESTERN EUROPE quesIons raised by Menendez, with 
the keen support of the Armenian 
Gideon Rachman
Dashnak organizaIon, the ANCA, 
[Financial Times] • Tags: France, Greece, Protests, Reform •  amount to queries on Bryza’s 
Gideon Rachman, “Defiant France ignores the 
abyss” (Financial Times, 18 October 2010).
relaIonship with a few Azerbaijani 
and Turkish officials and his lavish 
“The  French  seem  to  enjoy  strikings.  Last  week  there 
was  a  slightly  fesWve  air  –  with  flags,  drums,  torches,  wedding on the Bosphorus. In the end 
chants  and  even  fancy  dress  on  display.  There  is  they mainly come down to the fact 
something  faintly  ridiculous  about  schoolchildren  that Bryza happens to have a Turkish 
striking  to  protect  their  pensions,  which  makes  it 
tempWng  to  dismiss  all  this  as  street  theatre  and  to  wife and that the ANCA took a dislike 
assume that  the real decisions will  be made elsewhere.  to him because he did not pursue an 
But  that  would  be  a  mistake.  The  French  strikes  are  openly pro‐Armenian line in his former 
causing serious disrupWon to the economy, with a threat 
that  the country could  soon  run  short  of petrol. (…) In  post.
that  respect, the  stories of  Greece and  France –  for  all  Thomas de Waal
their  superficial  similariWes  –  are  actually  quite 
National Interest, 19 October 2010
different. The  Greeks came  perilously  close  to  naWonal 
default  this  year. But, in  response  – and  ayer  securing 
loans  from  the  InternaWonal  Monetary  Fund  and  the  forced  through  in  other  debt‐stricken  European 
rest  of the EU  –  Athens got serious. Over  the  past  year,  countries  such  as  Greece,  Spain,  Ireland  and  even 
Greece  has  halved  its  budget  deficit  and  formulated  Britain.  And  yet  France’s  proposed  reforms  have 
plausible  plans  to  head  for  budget  balance.  The  brought millions of demonstrators on to the streets.”
government  has  faced  down  street  protests  and  kept 
going. The possibility of an eventual parWal debt default 
remains. Even so, Greece has pushed through  fiscal  and 
labour  market  reforms  that  would  have  been 
unthinkable  a couple  of  years  ago.  The French  people, 
by  contrast,  sWll  do  not  seem  to  realise  the  potenWal 
SPONSORED BY
IPRIS DIGEST
OCEANIA also reached  a deadlock having failed  to secure a return 

to  democracy.  Most  worryingly  no  alternaWves  to  the 
current  approach  to  Fiji  seem  to  be  under  serious 
Fergus Hanson consideraWon,  and  absent  any  drasWc  change  in  tone, 
[Lowy InsWtute for InternaWonal Policy] • Tags: Democracy, Fiji,  regional  efforts to  change  the  status quo on  the island 
‘Frank’ Bainimarama • Fergus Hanson, “A dictator’s  are  doomed  to  fail. (…)  Although  we will  not  see mass 
paradise” (ISN Insights, 19 October 2010). starvaWon  or  horrific  pogroms  unfolding on  the  island, 
“As  Bainimarama  has  steadily  entrenched  himself,  much  of the progress Fiji has made on the development 
tough‐love  diplomacy  has  been  the  preferred  route  front  will  be  wiped  out  because  of  conWnued 
taken by frustrated neighboring countries. Australia and  mismanagement,  deepening  isolaWon  and  an 
New  Zealand  have  led  the  charge  to  stymie  the  increasingly constrained public space.”
dictator’s  internaWonal  agenda,  and  although  they 
succeeded  in  having  Fiji  suspended  from  the 
Commonwealth  and  the  leading  regional  organizaWon,  BOOKSHELF
the Pacific Islands Forum (whose Secretariat is based in 
Fiji), progress  since  has  been  almost  non‐existent.  (…) 
The  approach  taken  by  Australia  and  New  Zealand  has  Anthony Melling
[IPA] • Tags: Europe, Natural Gas • Anthony Melling, “Natural 
Gas Pricing and its Future: Europe and the 
In what now feels like the distant  Ba|leground” (CEIP, October 2010).
past, the results of the March 2010 
elecIons were hailed a great success   InternaIonal Crisis Group
Tags: Colombia, ELN, FARC, Juan Manuel Santos • 
for Iraq. Voters had thrown out the  InternaWonal Crisis Group, “Colombia: President Santos’s 
most sectarian parIes in favour of  Conflict ResoluWon Opportunity” (ICG, LaWn America Report n. 
34, 13 October 2010).
al‐Da'wah and Iraqiya, who had both 
campaigned on anI‐sectarian, Iraqi 
naIonalist plaeorms. But seven 
months on, Maliki's proposed 
coaliIon with the Sadrists sounds 
the death knell for Iraqi cross‐
communalism and the future of Iraq 
looks bleak.
Nussaibah Younis
Guardian, 19 October 2010
SPONSORED BY
IPRIS DIGEST
... AND MORE
NORTHERN  AFRICA  Simon  Tisdall,  “US  pragmaWsm  on 

Sudan  is  fading”.   WESTERN  AFRICA  John  Campbell, 
“Nigeria’s  Pre‐ElecWon  Tensions”.  NORTHERN  AMERICA 
Steven Ayergood,  “Telling Secrets”. • Robert  Pape, “It’s 
the  OccupaWon,  Stupid”.  •  Michael  Desch,  “Why  have 
the  wars  in  Iraq  and  Afghanistan  been  so  corrosive  of 
civil‐military  relaWons?”.  •  Baker  Sping,  “ProtecWve 
Agreement  to Limit Missile  Defense and Space Systems 
Should Delay New START”. • Nile Gardiner, “The end  of 
the Obama empire? The outlook is grim for  the imperial 
presidency”.  WESTERN  ASIA  Ranj  Alaaldin,  “Kurds  are 
Iraq’s  kingmakers”.  •  Mohammed  Hussainy,  “Iraq’s  big 
deal:  the  coming  naWonal  unity  government”.  • 
Christopher  Davidson  and  KrisWan  Coates‐Ulrichsen, 
“Bahrain  on  the  edge”.  •  Paul  Pillar,  “The  Awakening 
Falls Asleep”. • Yossi  Alpher, “Plenty of blame to spread 
around”.  •  Mordechai  Kedar, “Why it  can’t  succeed”. • 
Glen Robinson, “Al‐Aqsa InWfada 10 Years Later”.
   IPRIS DIGEST is a daily brief of internaWonal relaWons and 
security analysis covering the world.
IPRIS DIGEST is a publicaWon of IPRIS, a private non‐profit and 
independent organisaWon based in Lisbon.
The opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do 
not necessarily reflect the views of IPRIS.
SPONSORED BY

Id 204

Transféré par

Informations du document

Description originale:

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Id 204

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

IPRIS DIGEST

SOUTH AMERICA the famed  checks‐and‐balances of  democracy will  have

Richard Weitz NaWons  Security  Council  call  upon  U.N.  members  to

The PalesWnian Authority (PA) fully understands that the  Erasto Almeida

Daniel Pipes some Israelis expect their  prime minister to  “search for

OCEANIA also reached  a deadlock having failed  to secure a return

NORTHERN  AFRICA  Simon  Tisdall,  “US  pragmaWsm  on

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi

Id 204

Transféré par

Informations du document

Description originale:

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Id 204

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

IPRIS DIGEST

SOUTH AMERICA the famed checks‐and‐balances of democracy will have

Richard Weitz NaWons Security Council call upon U.N. members to

The PalesWnian Authority (PA) fully understands that the Erasto Almeida

Daniel Pipes some Israelis expect their prime minister to “search for

OCEANIA also reached a deadlock having failed to secure a return

NORTHERN AFRICA Simon Tisdall, “US pragmaWsm on

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi

IPRIS DIGEST

SOUTH AMERICA the famed  checks‐and‐balances of  democracy will  have 

Richard Weitz NaWons  Security  Council  call  upon  U.N.  members  to 

The PalesWnian Authority (PA) fully understands that the  Erasto Almeida

Daniel Pipes some Israelis expect their  prime minister to  “search for 

OCEANIA also reached  a deadlock having failed  to secure a return 

NORTHERN  AFRICA  Simon  Tisdall,  “US  pragmaWsm  on 