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investments
Trends and outlook
Contents
06 Introduction
14 Key investment trends in 2018-2019
18 Overview of investment in sub-sectors
22 Outlook
The real estate sector in India is a significant contributor to the country’s
overall GDP as well as employment. Given the significant forward and
backward linkages that the sector shares with the rest of the economy,
investment in the sector has had a significant impact on the entire
economy. Since the sector opened its doors for Foreign Direct Investment
Foreword (FDI) in India in 2005, several foreign private equity players, international
developers and lately, long-term institutional capital providers such as
sovereign wealth funds and pension funds have invested in this sector.
The Government of India, in addition to liberalizing the FDI regime for the
sector, has taken ample initiatives to boost the investment in the sector
as well as improve its transparency. Some of these include Housing for All
by 2022, introduction of Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Act,
2016 (RERA), laws to tackle benami transactions, including homebuyers
as financial creditors for the purpose of Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code,
introduction of a robust Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) regime
coupled with income tax incentives/GST concessions for affordable
housing, REITs, etc.
From 2005 to the advent of the global financial crisis in 2008, investment
was primarily in greenfield development projects and in the form of equity
and quasi equity. Post 2008, for a significant period of time, the deals
were largely in the form of debt and structured transactions. A new trend
in the past few years has been the establishment of asset class specific
platforms by foreign capital providers with local developers/ financial
players and investments in the Non-Banking Finance Companies (NBFCs)
space. As a result of the overall stress in the sector over the past few
years and current liquidity crisis in the NBFC space, in particular, we have
witnessed investments in distressed loans space as well. During April 2000
to December 2018, there has been an FDI of US$25 billion which includes
US$15 billion in private equity investments since 2015.
Initial investments were in development transactions both in residential and
commercial assets. However, with liberalization of the FDI regime over the
years and developed Grade A commercial assets coming onto the market,
foreign investors are willing to invest in yield-based assets such as office,
malls, warehouses, etc. The launch of the first REIT in March 2019 has
further boosted their confidence. Continued growth in the Indian economy
is likely to provide an impetus to the commercial office segment as well
as warehousing and industrial parks and consequent growth in disposable
income may boost the consumption and consequently growth of the retail
malls segment.
In the next few years, there is a likelihood of asset classes such as student
housing, co-working, co-living and senior living to emerge and grow. This
report seeks to capture the key investment trends in various asset classes
and our outlook for the near-to-medium-term future.
1,2,3, 4
CREDAI-JLL report 2018
• In 2017, new retail focused real estate supply of 6.4 million sq. ft.
Retail was added; additional 20m sq. ft. is expected by 2019
• FDI in multi-brand retail is expected to boost the demand
Hospitality • The country has 406 approved hotels with 31,944 rooms
Attractive opportunities
Demand across sectors/segments
• Space needed in education, healthcare, and logistics
2 • Economy is expected to grow at close to 7% fueling the need for
office space
Advantage �
Increasing investments
India
Policy support
4 FDI Policy liberalized Government expenditure Regulatory support
• 100% FDI allowed in • 60 million houses to be • RERA established
the sector built under “Housing for sector’s
for All” scheme promotion and
(40 million rural and 20 regulation.
million urban) by 2022.
Source: Ministry of Tourism, World Bank, Census 2011, EY – India’s Growth Paradigm 2017, CREDAI-JLL report
India’s real estate sector has been receiving In 2018 and early 2019, the real estate sector
significant attention from investors over the in India has recorded deals of over US$10 billion
past two to three years and is gaining popularity which are dominated primarily by investments
among global PE/VC investors like Brookfield by PE/VC funds while M&A/strategic deals
and Blackstone as well as pension and sovereign were mainly restricted to the commercial and
wealth funds with large pools of capital to invest hospitality sub-sectors. While majority of the PE/
in steady yield-generating assets. VC investors in real estate are global, most of the
M&A deals are domestic.
4,691 3,049
69% 92%
PE/VC M&A
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
43
1,200 25
24
1,000 87
20
14
800
16 254
646 15
13 14 189
600 455
12 12 12 12
17 105 13
11 11 11
147 10
400 343 5
6 8
7
6 6
200 5
3 -
843 243 388 386 440 15 392 360 23 378 873 363 127 518 928 369 1,107
- 8 11 0
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
65 26
89% 90%
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
Phoenix's Hyderabad
Xander 350 100 2018
office project
Indiabulls Properties
Blackstone 346 50 2018
Private Limited
PBEL Property
Development India Private Peninsula Brookfield
100 NA 2018
Limited, residential Realty Fund
projects
Piramal Ivanhoe
Pallava Township Residential Equity 69 NA 2019
Fund
Everstone-promoted
3 logistics parks 92 NA 2019
IndoSpace
Orris Infrastructure
Private Limited, logistics Everstone 9 NA 2019
park
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
Kohinoor CTNL
Sandeep Shirke &
Infrastructure Company 330 80 2018
Associates
Private Limited
Securities &
IDBI Bank Limited-Seven
Exchange Board of 138 100 2018
Storey Office Building
Commercial India
LOMA Co-Developers 1
Private Limited, LOMA Ascendas Property
138 NA 2018
Co-Developers 2 Private Fund
Limited
Sterling Urban
Prestige Estates
Infraprojects Private 52 NA 2018
Projects Limited
Limited
Kolte-Patil I-Ven
Kolte-Patil
Townships (Pune) Private 30 50 2019
Developers Limited
Limited
Darshita Landed
Eden Buildcon Limited 13 NA 2019
Property LLP
Residential
Aura Securities
Private Limited,
Arvind Smartspaces Aagam Holdings
8 9 2018
Limited Private Limited
and Samvegbhai
Arvindbhai Lalbhai
Kohinoor Planet
Real Gold Developers
Construction Private 7 100 2018
LLP
Limited
Prestige Retail
Forum Sujana Mall 52 NA 2019
Ventures Limited
Retail assets
Realpro Realty Solutions
HT Media Limited 3 NA 2018
Private Limited
Katara Hospitality Co
Plaza Hotel, New York 600 100 2018
QSC
Avinash Bhosale
BlackRock UK Property
Infrastructure 142 100 2018
Fund-5 Strand Property
Limited
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
1 Buyouts account for a major share of the deal flow by PE/VC funds
Buyouts accounted for a major share of PE/VC the top ten deals in 2018 and early 2019 were
investments in India in 2018 and early 2019. The buyouts. With the entry of large Limited Partners
primary investors in this case were global pension (LPs) as direct investors in the Indian market, we
and sovereign funds who were investing in the are likely to see this trend getting even stronger in
yield-generating commercial assets. Nine out of the coming years.
In 2018 and early 2019, credit investments in the drying up due to the aftermath of the NBFC
real estate sector was worth US$1.5 billion and liquidity crisis, developers are exploring debt and
majority of which was into residential real estate. equity financing from private equity. With the
government’s push towards affordable housing,
Developers in the country were typically averse to
it is emerging as a lucrative investment option for
private equity as it is more expensive as compared
PE/VC funds as it is likely to generate good risk
to the debt they could raise from the banks
adjusted returns.
or NBFCs. However, with funding from NBFCs
2018 Jan'19-May'19
(US$4,691m) (US$3,049m)
186
4% 94 23
2% 1%
875
996 29%
21%
1,899 2,031
1,517 41% 120 66%
32% 4%
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
2018 Jan'19-May'19
(55 deals) (34 deals)
10 9 4 7
18% 16% 12% 20%
2
4% 3
9%
17
17 31% 20
31% 59%
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
Traditional US-based PE investors like Blackstone these funds have invested around US$2 billion,
and KKR have dominated the PE real estate accounting for 27% of the investments. Canadian
investment landscape with Blackstone following funds such as Brookfield and Canada Pension Plan
the buy and operate strategy while KKR adopting Investment Board (CPPIB) along with sovereign
the structured credit investment route. However, wealth funds such as Abu Dhabi Investment
in the recent years, Singapore-based funds like Authority (ADIA) have also committed significant
GIC, Ascendas-Singbridge and Xander have made amounts of capital to the sector.
increasing investments. In 2018 and early 2019,
757
1,167
1,443 932 25%
25%
31% 31%
1,312
642 718
28%
769 21% 23%
16%
US Singapore Canada Others
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
Exhibit 11
36
3,500 35
34
3,000 848 30
2,500 25
23
2,000 20
1,500 15
61 12 12
954
1,000 10
9
500 5
6 177
2,562 1,102 651 247 2 44
- 37 -
50 42 0
Commercial Residential Hospitality Retail Diversified Warehousing Others
PE/VC investments (US$m) M&A (US$m) Number of deals
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
27
1,000 50 21
20
800 16
15
600
11 105 10
400 53
5
5
200 17 4
4 225
916 297 1,002 345 2 249 15
- 0
Commercial Residential Hospitality Retail Diversified Warehousing Others
PE/VC investments (US$m) M&A (US$m) Number of deals
Source: EY analysis of data from various sources including VCCEdge, Merger Markets and Thomson One
Hospitality
Retail
The hospitality sector was the next biggest
sub-sector, accounting for 27% of the dollar Another segment that is drawing interests among
value of deals in the real estate sector in 2018 investors is the retail real estate segment with
and early 2019. Three out of the top 10 PE/ the likes of CPPIB investing US$245 million in
VC deals and four out of the top 10 M&A deals a joint venture with Phoenix Mills to develop
in 2018 and early 2019 were in the hospitality retail-led mixed-use assets and ADIA setting up
sub-sector. The interest of private equity players a platform, namely, Lake Shore India Advisory,
in hospitality has been driven by the growing having a corpus of US$250 million, to build retail
occupancy rates and also a gradual improvement assets in India. Warburg Pincus has also formed
in the rooms’ rates. PE/VC interest is especially an investment platform with a Mumbai based
high in the budget hotel aggregators space developer “Runwal Group” with a total corpus of
with players like Oyo, Fab Hotels, Treebo, etc. US$1 billion to develop shopping malls. According
developing a niche in this category by leveraging to news reports Warburg Pincus and Runwal
technology to attract customers and improve Developers Private Limited will each hold a 50%
their room occupancy while driving down the stake in the platform and have committed an
costs. Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC equity capital of US$200 million each. The partners
and Indian Hotels Company Ltd, an operator of will raise another US$600 million as debt6. The
Taj luxury hotels, have signed an investment renewed interest in the retail sector is fueled by the
framework for about US$600 million to acquire fast-growing urban population and spurt of high-
hotels in India. street brands. Mall developers are also learning
from their past experiences and creating superior
quality malls, providing retail establishments with
a better mix of customer footfalls. Developers are
working on design, varied tenant mix, strength of
5
Reserve Bank of India estimates
6
Economic Times article: Warburg Runwal plan $1b realty play
7
Live Mint article: Why student housing is gaining ground in India
8,9
Knight Frank, Global Student Property Report 2019
As per our findings, currently, the real estate asset class in future may lead to capital rotation,
sector in India accounts for around 12.6% of which is likely to be beneficial to all commercial
all PE/VC investments in the country. This is real estate segments.
expected to increase even further with several
PE funds looking at the sector as a separate
asset class within their investment strategy and Some of the emerging
setting up a dedicated real estate investment
fund. The sector is projected to grow to US$180 trends, which may drive
billion by 2022, which may also provide huge
opportunities for the investors. With better the investments in the
regulations expected under the RERA, investors
are expecting that transparency and their
future in the real estate
position to price their investment risks would
also improve. The fall in the interest rates
sector, include:
globally may help the sector draw more capital
especially into yield-generating commercial
assets. The financialization of the sector with
REITs
the introduction of REITs augurs well for the REITs are essentially trusts that manage specific
growth of the entire sector, particularly the investment properties. These properties can
commercial segment. include both residential and industrial projects.
The regulatory changes undertaken by the With the Indian Government opening up the
government to facilitate the creation and listing real estate market to REITs, it has provided
of REITS has also bolstered the confidence of investors an opportunity to monetize assets thus
the investors. Widespread acceptance of this providing an overall boost to the commercial
10
Knight Frank, Global Student Property Report 2019
11
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/goldman-backs-manipals-student-living-arm-to-buy-74-
for-350cr/articleshow/61110426.cms
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