How to develop a program logic

There are several elements in a program logic. It makes sense when planning and
thinking through a program to begin with the problem statement and then work
backwards from your long term outcomes. Once you have the major elements in place,
consider the assumptions and external factors as a way to identify potential risks that
may prevent you from achieving your outcomes. The different elements are laid out in
this order below.

Problem statement
Developing your problem statement is the first step. It will establish the issue or problem
that your program is going to address. Your problem statement should be both targeted
and specific. It will be a problem that is 'solved' by your goal.
Things to consider are:
 What is the problem?
 What are the causes of the problem? What are the causes of these causes?
 Who is impacted by this problem?
 Who is involved in this problem? Who else is working on it and who cares if it is
solved?
 What do we know about the problem from research, evidence and experience?
 What do we know about the way the target group experience this issue?
(adapted from Shakman and Rodriguez, 2015)

Long-term outcomes
The long-term outcome should resolve the issue identified in your problem statement
and it should fit with your goal. Long-term outcomes are sometimes called 'impact
outcomes'. Long-term outcomes usually take a long time to be seen (sometimes up to
ten years) and will be influenced by factors which are outside of your control.

Short-term outcomes
Short-term outcomes are the changes you expect to see on completion of your program.
These are the easiest to measure, and the timeframe will usually be the length of your
program. Short-term outcomes are most often changes in skills or knowledge.

Medium-term outcomes
Medium-term outcomes are what you would expect to follow on from the short-term
outcomes you have identified. So if you have identified an increase in staff or parental
knowledge as a short-term outcome, the medium-term outcome is likely to be the
application of that knowledge, for example a change in behaviour.

Inputs
Inputs are the resources that you have which you are able to draw on to address the
problem identified in your problem statement. It is good to think of both the material
resources (e.g. funding, physical spaces) and the non-material resources (e.g. staff
knowledge).

Outputs: Activities
The activities are the things that you do. This is likely to include running the program and
training staff. It might also include developing a program manual and resources, or
providing referrals to families. It is good to be specific about the numbers of program
sessions you will run.

Outputs: Participation
This describes who will be involved. It is good to clearly define the target group for your
program and include relevant information about this population group (for example age
or cultural background). As well as the target group, you should include information
about staff and others that may be involved (e.g. volunteers, staff from other
organisations).

Assumptions
Making assumptions explicit is a really important part of the logic model. Assumptions
are the beliefs we have about our program, the people involved, and how it will work.
Unexamined assumptions are a big risk to program success. Shakman and Rodruiqez
(2015) suggest asking "what is known, and what is being assumed?". It is worth
spending some time on this section, and asking a range of people involved in the
program to help you identify a full list of assumptions so you can address them.

External factors
This element of a program logic requires you to consider the environment in which your
program is being delivered. Economic, political, cultural, historical and social contexts all
impact the way your program is delivered, and the outcomes that you can achieve.
Likewise, your program has potential to impact some of these factors too. For example,
a change in the demographics of an area may mean you need to reconsider the target
group for your program.