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% Of US Adults
Overweight Obese Severely Obese
(25 ≤ BMI < 30) (30 ≤ BMI < 40) (BMI ≥ 40)
1999 to 2000 34 25.8 4.7
1988 to 1994 33 20.1 2.9
1976 to 1980 31.6 14.4 No Data
* US Adult population was approximately 230 million in 2008
1999-2000
Men (BMI > 25) Women (BMI > 25)
Prevalence (%) Prevalence (%)
Overall 67 62
Age (Years)
20 to 34 58 51.5
35 to 44 67.6 63.6
45 to 54 71.3 64.7
55 to 64 72.5 73.1
65 to 74 77.2 70.1
75 and older 66.4 59.6
2001
Obesity
Education Level Prevalence (%)
Less than High School 27.4
High School 23.2
Some College 21
College 15.7
2001
Income Level Obesity (%)
Less than $25,000 32.5
$25,000-$40,000 31.3
$40,000-$60,000 30.3
More than $60,000 26.8
US Adult
Population
(millions)*
209 2000
185 1990
163 1980
Exhibit 2
Option Description
Non-prescription, FDA approved weight loss drug for
Alli overweight individuals
*Alli price comparison included initial starter pack and 90 day supply of pills
OTC drug pricing based off MSRP, however deep discounts were usually available
Weight Watchers price included monthly meeting pass and access and internet tools
Jenny Craig price included membership fees and prepackaged food (replaced ~50% - 75% of the
Average gym membership price included one-time initiation fee of approximately $125
Approximate Retail Price*
250
200
150
100
50
0
1980 1990 2000
US Popul ation Forecast(US Popul ation)
Lower Confidence Bound(US Popul ation) Upper Confidence Bound(US Popul ati
Upper Confidence Bound(US Population) Column1
22
24
209.00 22
232.90 22
2000 2010
orecast(US Popul ation)
pper Confidence Bound(US Popul ation)
Year US Population Population Increase
1980 163 - Year US Population
1990 185 22
2000 209 24 1980 163
2010 232 23
1990 185
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
US Overweight Immediate
Year US Forecasted Population
Pouplation prescription
Scenario 3
% of population Population
Year US Forecasted Population
captured captured
Scenario 1
% of Population to
Comfortable to Population Population to Population to
population complete the
use drugs captured buy 1 Supply buy 2 Supply
captured course
rio 2
% of Population to
Population Population to Population to
population complete the
captured buy 1 Supply buy 2 Supply
captured course
10% 0.96 0.267 0.573 0.115
15% 1.45 0.405 0.868 0.174
20% 1.95 0.545 1.169 0.234
25% 2.46 0.688 1.475 0.295
30% 2.98 0.834 1.787 0.357
Population to
Population to Population to
complete the
buy 1 Supply buy 2 Supply
course
0.361 0.774 0.155
0.426 0.912 0.182
0.491 1.052 0.210
0.558 1.195 0.239
0.626 1.341 0.268
Option 1 Option 2 Option 3
Retail price $ 75.00 $ 125.00 $ 150.00
Retail gross margin $ 25.00 $ 41.67 $ 50.00
Manufacturer price $ 50.00 $ 83.33 $ 100.00
Variable cost $ 25.20 $ 25.20 $ 25.20
Manufacturer gross mar $ 24.80 $ 58.13 $ 74.80
198.53
453.78
407.62