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Jeff Tabor
Dr. Smith
ENC 2301.OM1
4 May 2006

Russia: The Slumbering Bear

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia has struggled with becoming a

liberal democracy, and with developing a free market economy. This struggle has damaged

Russia’s prestige and standing in the rest of the world. Instead of the fierce and aggressive

promoter of world revolution, Russia now wrestles with internal conflicts. These conflicts

divert so much of Russia’s energy and resources that many question whether it will ever recover.

In truth, Russia still has a powerful, combat hardened military with nuclear weapons. It

has vast, untapped natural resources. Finally, Russia still has considerable influence in the

Middle East. To underestimate Russia, and relegate it to Third World status, could prove

catastrophic to national security. Indeed, when Russia manages to quell its internal strife,

consolidate its leadership, organize its economy, and update its military it will again become

force to reckon with. In time the slumbering Bear will awaken.

The Russian Military

Russia possesses tremendous military might, but currently the Russian military is beset

with a host of problems. According to the U.S. State Department (DOS), the monthly pay for a

conscript is approximately $3.50 per month. Food and uniform shortages abound. HIV and

tuberculosis afflict many of the troops. The brutal and unpopular war against Chechnya has

caused morale to plummet, and draft evasion is on the rise.

Nevertheless despite these growing pains, Russia’s military remains a formidable force.

Information from the CIA World Fact Book states, Russia has thirty nine million males eligible

for conscription. To compliment its conventional forces, Russia maintains a large stockpile of
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strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. According to Lt. General Michael D. Maples of the

Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) the number of weapons is declining; (11) however, Maples

reports the testing of the Bulava-30, a submarine launched ballistic missile, as well as the

Russians researching and devising of strategies to evade anti-missile systems. This clearly

shows Russia’s commitment to having a first strike capability. Most importantly, Russia has the

expertise, raw materials and industrial capability to produce more weapons (DOS). Russia also

continues to produce a wide array of effective and sophisticated conventional weapons as well.

According to the State Dept., weapons are Russia’s most important manufactured export goods,

and, Russia is second only to the United States in international weapons sales at 4.6 billion

dollars in 2005. Products include: aircraft, armored vehicles, missiles, submarines, small arms,

as well as radars. (Maples, 17) In an analysis for Power and Interest News Report,” Keep a

Watchful Eye on Russia’s Military Technology”, Yevgerny Bendersky describes several Russian

weapons systems which have found a wide market. These systems rival anything the West

currently produces, and probably cost considerably less, considering the ruble vis a vis the dollar.

Oman and United Arab Emirates have bought BMP-3 armored fighting vehicles, despite the

availability of American equipment. Also of note is the S-400 surface to air missile, reputedly

equal to the American Patriot system. (Bendersky) Considering Russia’s desire to bolster its

monetary reserves, it certainly will continue to sell weapons. Considering some of Russia’s

clients (Iraq, Iran, and Syria) these weapons pose a definite risk to American interests, and will

for some time to come. (Maples, 18)

Natural Resources

Russia contains vast natural resources. The most important of these are its reserves of oil,

coal and natural gas. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (USEIA), Russia
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ranks second in the world for oil production, with 60 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.

Russia is second only to the U.S. with coal fields capable of producing over 170 billion short

tons. It also has 35% of the world’s natural gas under its control, making it number one producer

of natural gas in the world. Until recently, Russia’s ability to extract these resources for use

proved inefficient and wasteful. However, with recent assistance and investment from Europe

and the U.S., Russia has updated its petroleum and natural gas industry, and increased its

production. This modernization has placed Russia in the enviable position to produce enough

energy for its own use without relying on imports. Furthermore, it places Russia in the perfect

position to exert more influence in fuel hungry Europe and Asia (USEIA). In Mortimer

Zuckerman’s “The Russia Conundrum”, he points out that Europe relies on Russia for almost

50% of its natural gas and 33% of its oil. Russia also has no trouble in using its energy industry

for international leverage. During the winter of 2005, Russia cut supplies to Ukraine due to a

disagreement on price (USEIA). Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has also managed to

practically nationalize these industries for the service of the state. The DIA reports the disturbing

trend of the majority of the profits from petroleum and gas being spent on improving and

reequipping the military, as well as bolstering the government’s monetary reserves (Maples, 18).

Both of these trends of increased military spending, along with the increased exportation of

energy products point to Russia’s burgeoning desire to increase its political power at home and

abroad.

Internal Politics

Russia has come a long way in governing itself since the implosion of the Soviet regime.

In his report for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,” Russian Democracy and Civil

Society: Back to the Future,” Andrew Kutchins outlines various internal political trends in
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Russia, which should cause concern in the West. First he points out how current Russian

President Vladimir Putin has consistently pushed to consolidate political power in the office of

the President. Mr. Kutchins uses the example of how members of the legislature and also

regional governors are now appointed by the President rather than elected. The government

controls the media as well, especially television. Thus, the media cannot serve as an independent

watchdog for Russia’s citizens. Russia is a democracy only insofar as it elects its President. The

checks and balances of a true, liberal democracy simply do not exist. The Russian people have

shown they will happily rely on a strong central leader as long as the economy blossoms and the

government respects individual rights. This consolidation of political power plays a major role

in Russia’s foreign policy as well (Kutchins).

Foreign Policy

In Bendersky’s article “Russia’s Future Foreign” policy, he stresses the fact that Russia is

often looked upon as a fallen superpower weighs heavily upon the country’s psyche. Russia’s

maneuvering to upgraded and expand its military, develop and modernize its energy sector, and

streamline and consolidate its political organs all seem calculated to return Russia to superpower

status. As Russia becomes stronger and more economically solvent, its foreign policy stance

will become more adversarial and unpredictable for the U.S. Currently Russia’s main sphere of

influence is with former Soviet republics. (Bendersky) Of late, Russia provided support for the

election of Belarus dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko. (Mathews). It also ineffectively attempted to

sway elections in the Ukrainian elections of 2004. (Kuchins) In Armenia, Russia is suspected of

sponsoring a covert operation, leading to the deaths of several anti-Russian politicians.

Especially troubling is Russia’s recent activities in the Middle East.

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According to Ariel Cohen of The Heritage Foundation, in the spring of 2003, Russia provided

Saddam Hussein intelligence on the U.S. plan to topple his regime. The Russians also used

spetznaz special operations troops to train Iraqi forces in guerilla war techniques, similar to those

used by Soviet partisans during World War II. Most disturbing of all are the allegations that

Russian troops may have assisted Iraq with transferring chemical weapons stockpiles to Lebanon

and Syria prior to the invasion. In his article “Past as Prologue” Owen Mathews discusses

Moscow’s willingness to sell Iran highly sophisticated Tor-M1 surface to air missiles, as well as

advanced MiG-29 fighters, and other military hardware. Perhaps most incredible is Russia’s

ability to discuss the possibility of allowing Iran to pursue its enrichment of uranium under

Russian auspices. Russia’s atomic energy chief Sergei Kiriyenko told Newsweek “No one has

the right to deny another country safe atomic power.” In light of these facts, it becomes painfully

apparent that Russia seeks to continue where the Cold War left off. Current Russian President

Vladimir Putin made Russian perceptions clear when he stated the election of Hamas in Palestine

as “an important setback for American efforts in the Middle East.” Russian Defense Minister

Sergei Ivanov also justified Russia’s support for this de facto terrorist group by stating “Hamas is

in power—this is a fact. It came to power as a result of free democratic elections.”(Mathews and

Nemtsova) These statement s illustrate that Russia will not allow the U.S. a free hand in the

Middle East. Instead, Russia is slowly reviving its role as adversary to America, all the while

seeking status and recognition with Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. William Odom of Yale

University gives a particularly bleak view of future relations with Russia in a round table

Discussion for Yale Journal of International Affairs: “I do not believe that Russia is capable of

being a strategic partner or playing a constructive role in international affairs. Russia’s

psychological sense of loss after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the pressures on the
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Kremlin from all kinds of groups to engage in the pursuit of narrow and short term interests

doom it to be a fickle partner, whether working with the permanent members of the U.N.

Security Councilor in collaboration with the U.S. or other major powers.” Odom feels Russia

will work with the U.S. only under duress, all the while seeking opportunities to undermine U.S.

efforts.

Conclusion

While there are still those who would relegate Russia to Third World status, a look at

recent trends should dispel this notion. Russia continues to develop and market powerful

weapons systems. Russia’s vast energy reserves are rapidly strengthening its economy and

influence in Europe and Asia. Last but not least, Russia is learning to govern itself in more

efficient, if not democratic ways, allowing it to act with decisiveness and force. These factors

have given Russia new hope of achieving superpower status. They also contribute to Russia’s

controversial, and indeed adversarial stance vis-a vis the West, on numerous foreign policy issues

in the Middle East. These trends are cause to make relations with Russia a priority, rather than to

relegate it to some diplomatic backwater. Indeed, the slumbering Bear has already awakened.

Works Cited
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Bendersky, Yevgeny. “Keep a Watchful Eye on Russia’s Military Technology.” Power and

Interest News Report. 21 July 2004. http://www.pinr.com/report.php?

ac=view_report&report_id=187&language_id=1

Bendersky, Yevgeny. “Russia’s Future Foreign Policy: Pragmatism in Motion.” Power and

Interest News Report. 4 May 2004. http://www.pinr.com/report.php?

ac=view_report&report_id=293&language_id=1

Cohen, Ariel. “Russia Spying for Saddam Demands a Careful U.S. Response.” The Heritage

Foundation. March 31, 2006.

http://www.heritage.org/Research/RussiaandEurasia/wm1023cfn?renderforprint=1.

Kuchins, Andrew C. Russian Democracy and Civil Society: Back to the Future. Testimony for

the U.S. Committee on Security and Cooperation in Europe, February 8th 2006.

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?

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Maples, Lt. General Michael D. Current and Projected National Security Threats to the United States.

Statement for the Record, Senate Armed Services Committee., 28 February 2006.

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