Académique Documents
Professionnel Documents
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OF BIOFUELS
Workshop & Business Forum
Sustainable Biomass Production for the
World Market, Unicamp, 02/12/05
TO EXPAND THE
EFFICIENCY IN BIOENERGY
NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION
USE AND USE
EFFICIENCY IN EFFICIENCY IN
OIL USE BIOENERGY USE
Source: Chris Skrebowski, The End of Oil – Conference, London, 11th october 2005
Why does ‘Peak Oil’ matter?
• Our economies are totally oil dependent
• Economic progress requires growth
• Growth requires oil, preferably cheap oil
• Fuel changes require time and large
investments which in turn require energy
• What is at risk? History shows us that supply
shortfalls lead to high oil prices and high oil
prices lead to economic recessions
Source: Chris Skrebowski, The End of Oil – Conference, London, 11th october 2005
The depletion challenge
Source: Chris Skrebowski, The End of Oil – Conference, London, 11th october 2005
A visual summary
100000
80000
New fields
60000
40000 Declining
production
20000
0
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: Chris Skrebowski, The End of Oil – Conference, London, 11th october 2005
Gas discovery is also falling short
• Gas discovery peaked in 1970s
• Demand first exceeded discovery in 1985
then continuously from 1990 to 1995
• Since 2001discovery has been under half
of usage
• Gas production is already falling in the
USA, Canada, UK, Germany, Italy and
New Zealand
GDP & ENERGY PER CAPITA : GOALS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
goal
THE EVOLUTION OF THE CAR,
SINCE THE XX CENTURY UNTIL
THE HIDROGEN ERA
AND
THE DIRECT CORRELATION
BETWEEN CAR, CARBON
EMISSIONS AND GREENHOUSE
EFECT
Temperature Change (ºC)
CO2 in Atmosfere
North Hemisphere
CO2 LEVELS
TºC
TºC Restab
Oil dominates its markets
• 80-95% of all transport is fuelled by oil products
Source: Chris Skrebowski, The End of Oil – Conference, London, 11th october 2005
Delaying ‘Peak Oil’
• Economic slowdown/recession
• Demand destruction via high prices
• Middle East opening to investment
• Peace in Iraq…..etc
• But, accelerating projects produces
cost inflation rather than more oil
• Systems working better than expected
• Biofuels
BIOFUELS APPROACH
To correct To decarbonize
% TOTAL YEAR
13,5 2005
20,0 2030
>30,0 2050
4 IMPORTANT FACTORS:
(50 new )
ETHANOL AND BIODIESEL SINERGIES
FOOD
FOSSIL
FUEL
ELETRIC
ENERGY
BIOFUELS
FOOD AND ENERGY
•IS THERE ANY MARKET RELATION
BETWEEN BOTH AGRICULTURES ?
•IS THERE LAND AVAIABLE?
PRICE’S EQUIVALENCE :
SUGAR AND GASOLINE
Sugar in
Ethanol
Equivalent
Gasoline - Nymex
IF
10% ETHANOL IN GLOBAL DEMANDED GASOLINE (blends)
Source: Chris Skrebowski, The End of Oil – Conference, London, 11th october 2005
•
TRANSPORTATION SECTOR
SUSTAINABILITY AS A GLOBAL ACTTITUDE