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SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE Dubai’s $32-Billion Launchers: How Long Can

The Stakes for U.K. Defense Airport Plan The West Rely on Russia?
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Joint Stars PAGE 42
For China and Russia
Learning From Gaza
PAGE DTI15

China’s Navy Meets U.S. and Allies


RICH MEDIA
EXCLUSIVE

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
PAGES DTI10, DTI18
Redesigning Airbus’s
The Stakes for U.K. Defense

Launchers: How Long Can


PAGE 32
EC135 Helicopter
The West Rely on Russia?
PAGE 27

Next-Gen Bombers
For China and Russia
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Learning From Gaza


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China’s Navy Meets U.S. and Allies


RICH MEDIA PAGES DTI10, DTI18
EXCLUSIVE

SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
The Stakes for U.K. Defense
PAGE 32

Launchers: How Long Can


The West Rely on Russia?
PAGE 27

Next-Gen Bombers
For China and Russia
PAGE 47
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September 15, 2014 Contents Volume 176 Number 32

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& S PA C E T E C H N O L O G Y
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6 Feedback
7 Who’s Where
8-10 The World
11 Up Front
12 Commander’s Intent
14 Inside Business Aviation
17 In Orbit
18 Washington Outlook

31
Leaders of NATO member countries watch a military aircraft flyover
55 Classified
during their summit meeting earlier this month. They also signed a plan
56 Contact Us to reverse defense cuts and meet alliance spending thresholds.
57 Aerospace Calendar

THE WORLD 24 Major 777X supplier Mitsubishi 32 Narrowing polls in Scottish inde-
  8 Southwest Airlines updates its livery determined it won’t be responsible pendence referendum prompt
for first time since 2001 as part for sending the program off course concerns over U.K. defense
of a multifaceted brand campaign
26 Bombardier resumes CSeries light 52 U.S defense forces conduct
10 Expedition 40 returns to Earth from tests after a hiatus of more than classified exercises on how
ISS, with the next Soyuz mission 100 days following an engine failure to counter threats from UAVs
set to launch later this month
SPACE ROTORCRAFT
10 Obituary for Noel W. Hinners, a U.S. 27 Prototype U.S. 500,000-lb.-thrust 34 Airbus Helicopters restarting its
space scientist who helped explore replacement for Russia’s RD-180 product-line renewal, beginning
the Moon, Mars and beyond could be on test stand in 2.5 years with first prototype of the EC135

COMMERCIAL PROGRAMS 30 Space industry sees little impact AIR TRANSPORT


20 Capacity is important, say airlines as from Western tensions with
35 Coming late to the low-fare market,
they increasingly look to squeeze Russia as seen in RD-180 deliveries
Air France-KLM and Lufthansa
more out of the single-aisle market are preparing to take risks
DEFENSE
21 Long 747-400 reign on intercon- 31 NATO moving to establish a high- 36 European and African airlines could
tinental routes coming to an end, readiness force that can deploy be the first to test a conflict-zone
especially on transpacific flights anywhere on the globe in 2-5 days warning database in October

ON THE COVERS
This week Aviation Week publishes two editions. On the implications of the Scottish independence vote (page
cover of both, a Gulfstream 550 flies, in a photo by Robert 32), Dubai airport expansion (page 38), a replacement
M. Brown for Northrop Grumman, to test various radars for Russian rocket engines (page 27), the growth of
and battle management technologies that the company narrowbody aircraft (page 20), prospects for new
plans for its bid to replace Joint Stars aircraft. The U.S. Russian and Chinese bombers (page 47) and an inside
Air Force hopes to debut a business-jet-size replacement look at redesign work on the EC135 helicopter (page 34).
for the Boeing 707-300-based Joint Stars in 2022 (see Our Defense Technology International edition contains
page 42). Elsewhere in both editions are reports on the an additional section of articles.

4 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


September 15, 2014 Contents Volume 176 Number 32

BUSINESS
26 52 Russia-Ukraine conflict heightens
36 Safety upgrades could be on tap A&D concerns over titanium, and
after NTSB’s report on preventing there seems to be no relief in sight
crashes after unstable approaches
VIEWPOINT
38 In a major boost for Emirates, 58 There is no pilot shortage but will
Dubai plans to increase its 39 Turkish Airlines copes with rapid be one unless pay and benefits
airports’ capacity substantially passenger volume growth as it meet training and experience
grapples with airport constraints

34 40 Design of new Mexico City airport 40


stands for crossroads, hubs and in-
vestment in aviation infrastructure

AIRPOWER
42 USAF hopes to field the first four new
Joint Stars aircraft in fiscal 2022,
using 737 or G550 as the platform

47 Russia developing its first new bomb-


er since 1977, while China’s system
would be its first indigenous bomber

On the Web
A roundup of what you’re reading on AviationWeek.com
Almost 43 years ago this week, Aviation Week featured a pilot report on the new McDonnell
Douglas DC-10. As Senior Editor Guy Norris writes, many readers had yet to see a widebody
transport close up, let alone fly in one, as the era of the “jumbo jet” was less than two years old.
Read Norris’s comments and the 1971 pilot report. (ow.ly/BnxAs). AviationWeek.com/100
AVIATION WEEK ARCHIVES

MRO EUROPE
Aviation Week’s MRO Europe Confer-
ence & Exhibition takes place next
month in Madrid. Keep up with European
MRO developments on our dedicated
Information Exchange portal:
AviationWeek.com/MROEurope

READER Reacting to a Viewpoint from Pratt &


COMMENT Whitney’s Bennett Croswell last week
defending the Joint Strike Fighter’s
The Sept. 8 launch of a higher-capacity variant of the Boeing 737 MAX 8 F135 engine, reader DRosado wrote: “I think the
issues of this program are inherent to its foundation:
(page 20) marks yet another step in the remarkable evolution of the com- a set of impossible requirements that the Pentagon
pany’s smallest jetliner. Read our 1965 story on the 737 back when it only thought were achievable at a reasonable cost, and a
had 21 orders (ow.ly/BnyI2). AviationWeek.com/100 contractor who simply said yes to everything, in a
logical attempt to dominate the military market for
what seems indefinitely.” ow.ly/BnzeP

MyAWIN allows you to set up customized email news alerts for Follow Keep up with all the news and
delivery on a daily or weekly basis. You also can save favorite blogs from Aviation Week’s editors.
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AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 5


Feedback Aviation Week & Space Technology welcomes
the opinions of its readers on issues raised in
the magazine. Address letters to the Executive
FAILURES ARE PART OF THE PROCESS most complex mechanical device ever Editor, Aviation Week & Space Technology,
I feel qualified to comment on the built. But when this last teething phase 1911 Fort Myer Drive, Suite 600, Arlington, Va.
editorial “Still Some Explaining To is finished, the warfighters will have 22209. Fax to (202) 383-2346 or send via e-mail
Do” (AW&ST Aug. 11/18, p. 74) because the finest engine the world has ever to: awstletters@aviationweek.com
of my 50-year career in government known. Letters should be shorter than 200 words, and
you must give a genuine identification, address
and industry, most of it developing and James Day and daytime telephone number. We will not
fielding fighter/bomber engines. BEAVERCREEK OHIO print anonymous letters, but names will be
My aggregate data on single-engine withheld. We reserve the right to edit letters.
fighters support some universal truths: AEROSPIKE THEN, NOW AND TO COME
š There is always an engine learn-
ing curve in operational service as
I enjoyed reading “New Space
Churn” (AW&ST Aug. 25, p. 33). It is agencies we can move into 21st-
measured by Class A mishap rates, good to see that a company is finally century baggage handling—meeting
regardless of how much development willing to use an aerospike on a launch the needs of customers and helping to
and flight-testing. You simply have vehicle. ensure a safer flying environment.
to have a population of engines built, I would, however, like to add some Low-cost RFID tags with or without
flown and maintained with variation details from my studies. I designed e-paper displays can do far more than
to know what you have. Mishap rates a small aerospike nozzle for use with self-service baggage handling.
decrease with time. solid propellants. It flew March 15, 2003 Ed Jacob
(AW&ST March 31, 2003, p. 18) and was GLEN ELLYN, ILLINOIS
the first wholly successful launch flight
and recovery of an aerospike nozzle/en- HEAD EAST, A-10S
gine. It should be noted that aerospikes I have an answer to the “retire the
can reduce the base drag of the launch A-10” issue—sell them to Israel. The
vehicle—thereby improving perfor- Israel Defense Forces will not care that
mance—which translates into payloads. it is not a swept-wing fourth- or fifth-
Also, liquid methane does not need generation fighter, plus they will be
heavily insulated tanks, nor does it have used the way they were intended. They
materials-compatibility issues, so it is a also would be paid for. A-10s could
good choice of propellants. serve as the perfect platform over Iraq
Because the aerospike is truncated, and Syria instead of wasting away in
is the base going to be pressurized with Tucson at the Davis-Monthan AFB.
turbine exhaust gases? It would require If we sell all of them to Israel, per-
a tweak of only 1-2% and would reduce haps we can buy half of an F-35.
the recirculation of gases, thereby William B. Dick
jacking up the heat. I have flown more COLLEYVILLE, TEXAS
than 14 aerospike nozzles made out of
phenolic using different throat rings for A LIGHTER APPROACH
different solid propellant motors and Even technical magazines are more
have logged no failures. I will hope that interesting with a bit of humor, and
š Every successive generation of en-
gine enters service at a lower mishap
just as I advanced aerospikes in 2003,
Thomas E. Markusic and the Firefly
there is no better place for that than
in the Feedback section. Your recent
rate that the previous generation as will keep the momentum up. issue offered me a couple moments of
technology and design and test meth- James Petty light-hearted reflection.
odology improve. SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH The first was elicited by reader
š Manufacturing-related issues cause
around half of engine-generated Class RFID UNCHAINED
Sherm Mullin’s “Back-Room Intensity”
(AW&ST Sept. 1, p. 6). I would like to
A mishaps early on, because the pro- “Do It Yourself” (AW&ST Sept. 1, point out that I too spent 35 years
cesses are immature in early produc- p. 32), about the usage of self-tagging in- in the aerospace industry—at North
tion and are matured on the fly. Pun stituted by several major airlines and by American Aviation, The Jet Propulsion
not intended. Airbus that allows premium customers Laboratory and McDonnell Douglas.
š The body politic is conditioned to
expect near-perfection at field intro-
to have radio-frequency identification
(RFID) bag tags that display destina-
For the record: Neither I, nor 98% of my
colleagues ever went to an air show! So?
duction. Thus, a single event is enough tion, flight numbers and other pertinent And reader Terry Golden’s “Words
to wreak havoc upon a program. There information, misses the point. Have Weight” had me musing over
is a reason why only about half a Technology is available to provide all some serious wordsmithing. I’m with
dozen countries have the wherewithal customers with a bag tag that not only him on the description of the ISS and
to build a modern powerplant for a displays tracking information but can the relationship to gravity. However,
single-engine fighter. be instantly reprogrammable in the would you have readers of Aviation
My advice to the F-35 program event of flight disruptions and delays. Week believe there is any difference in
leaders is to let people know there will Airlines complain such devices are using “weightless” rather than “zero
continue to be rocky road ahead for too costly to create and maintain, but gravity”?
single-engine fighter powerplants. It with the support of airports, national Conrad Timpe
is in the nature of what is arguably the security, customs and immigration NEWPORT BEACH, CALIFORNIA

6 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


Who’s Where To submit information for the
Who’s Where column, send Word
or attached text files (no PDFs) and
photos to: stearns@aviationweek.com
For additional information on
companies and individuals listed in
this column, please refer to the
ames Fazio has become CEO of querque, New Mexico, location Neil Whiteman

J
Aviation Week Intelligence Network
the Aruba Airport Authority, a of Cutter Aviation. Walker was at AviationWeek.com/awin For
Schiphol Group subsidiary that manager of aircraft services for information on ordering, telephone
manages Reina Beatrix International the McKinney/Addison facility U.S.: +1 (866) 857-0148 or
Airport. He succeeds Peter Stein- in Texas. Rowden was general +1 (515) 237-3682 outside the U.S.
metz, who has been named CEO of manager of the Colorado Springs
Stockholm Skavsta Airport. Fazio was location. vice president of the Customer
chief operations officer of JFKIAT, the Dan Webster has become Services Div. of Aircelle, Le
operator of Terminal 4 at New York managing director of Mel- Tracey Clough Havre, France. He was head of
John F. Kennedy International Airport bourne-based Elbit Systems of customer support and services
and also a Schiphol subsidiary. Australia. He succeeds Shlomo for AgustaWestland Helicop-
Neil Whiteman (see photos) has been Weizer, who has a new position ters.
named vice president/senior counsel at Elbit Systems. Webster was Milenko Krsmanovic has
for the New York-based FlightSafety vice president-programs and been named vice president-
Services Corp. He has been of counsel in had been director of services and sales for South Africa for
the Washington office of law firm Gibson, support for Thales Australia. U.K.-based Avtrade.
Dunn & Crutcher and has been associ- Eric Boelzner (see photo) Leda Chong has become
ate general counsel of Lockheed Martin has been named senior director Nick Hopkinson Beijing-based Asia-Pacific
Space Systems Co. Tracey Clough has for supply chain and produc- senior vice president for the
been promoted to director from manag- tion control for Jet Aviation St. Gulfstream Aerospace Corp.
er of international teammate resources Louis. He was senior manager She was head of the Asia-Pa-
for FlightSafety International. of cost control for the Dassault cific region for the aerospace
Chet Akiri has been appointed se- Falcon Jet Corp. facility in business group of parent com-
nior vice president/chief of corporate Little Rock, Arkansas. pany General Dynamics.
development for new ventures/strategy Sami T. Teittinen has been Thomas Curran has been
officer for the Houston-based Bristow appointed CEO of Fort Lau- Eric Boelzner
appointed senior vice presi-
Group. He was chief operating offcer for derdale, Florida-based Silver dent-business development
General Electric’s Global Nuclear Fuels Airways. He was CFO and succeeds and marketing of Stark Aerospace, Co-
America, Wilmington, North Carolina. Dave Pflieger, who has been named lumbus, Mississippi.
Paolo Lironi has become interim president/CEO of Hawaii Island Air. Charlotte R. Zilke has been named
CEO of New York-based SGI Aviation Jay Inman has become president director of conventions for the Alexan-
Services. He succeeds the late Wadick of the D3 Technologies subsidiary of dria, Virginia-based Helicopter Associa-
Chomyszyn. Lironi was executive St. Louis-based LMI Aerospace Inc. tion International. She was manager of
director. He succeeds Richard Johnson, who convention services.
Jim Sokol has been named president has retired. Inman was vice president
of MRO Services for Timco Aviation Ser- of D3 and had been Vought Aircraft’s HONORS AND ELECTIONS
vices, Greensboro, North Carolina. He project director for Bombardier and Janice Starzyk of International
was vice president-maintenance opera- Boeing programs. Launch Services has been named presi-
tions for Southwest Airlines. U.S. Army Maj. Gen. John F. Whar- dent of the Washington Space Business
Nick Hopkinson (see photo) has ton has been appointed commanding Roundtable. She succeeds Stephen Gan-
been appointed London-based director general of the Army Research, Devel- ote of Avascent. Other officers on the
of cyber strategy in the U.K. for the opment and Engineering Command, board of directors are Dave Jackson,
Northrop Grumman Corp. He was head Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland. vice president; Greg Harms of Space
of global internal cyber security for the He was commanding general of the Architectures, treasurer; Rob Scheige
Computer Sciences Corp. U.S. Army Sustainment Command, of Willis Inspace, secretary; Stephen
Dave Bibby has become vice presi- Rock Island Arsenal, Illinois. Ganote of Avascent, education chair-
dent-engineering of Aspen Avionics Inc., Andrew Arcuri has been named man; Patrick Boyle of Sage Commu-
Albuquerque, New Mexico. He was New York-based assistant manager of nications, program chairman; Richard
chief engineer for Honeywell Aero- the rapid response team for Duncan Parker of Assure Space, membership
space’s Flight Management Systems Aviation. He was a field service engi- chairman; and Nicole Robinson of SES
Center of Excellence. neer-senior technical support special- Government Solutions, Marketing Com-
Marc Esposito has been named vice ist for Honeywell Aerospace. mittee chair. Other board members are:
president-labor and values relations of Fred Graffam has become interim Jonathan Beland of Futron, Skot But-
JetBlue Airways. He was a partner in the CFO of DigitalGlobe, Longmont, Colo- ler of Intelsat General, Dennis Granato
Atlanta office of law firm Ford Harrison. rado. He succeeds Yancey L. Spruill, of Lockheed Martin, Tim Hughes of
Brian Walker has been appointed who has resigned. Graffam has been SpaceX, Corinne Kaplan of Airbus,
manager of customer experience for vice president-financial planning and Aaron Lewis of Arianespace, Sally
the service operation and Jessica analysis. Richardson of Orbital Sciences Corp.
Rowden general manager of the Albu- Richard Nevill has been appointed and Eric Spittle of SSL Federal. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 7


The World For more breaking news, go to AviationWeek.com

DEFENSE Southwest Goes Bold With Its Blue


Southwest Airlines updated its livery for the first time since 2001 as part of a multifaceted
Russian Rearmament Grows brand campaign. A single new logo—a stylized heart—now accompanies all internal and
Even as Russian military and govern- external communications, such as its “Rapid Rewards” frequent-flier program and its new
ment agencies continue to renew their booking website.
air fleets, the government is planning Placing Southwest’s new design on its approximately 700 Boeing 737s is expected to
its next long-range rearmament effort take seven years, as aircraft only will be pulled off the line for previously scheduled repaint-
through 2025, focusing on nuclear rear- ing. Spokane, Washington-based Associated Painters is slated to paint up to 60 aircraft this
mament and long-range aviation plat- year, including the AirTran Airways 737s that Southwest is incorporating into its fleet.
forms. The existing 2011-20 plan calls The main color of the fuselage, “Bold Blue,” includes new paint technology that seeks
for investment of about $540 billion. At to address the fading issues that plagued the previous “Canyon Blue.” In addition, the new
a special meeting on Sept. 10, President paint is more reflective, which is expected to make the cabin temperature cooler.
Vladimir Putin outlined a new program
for 2016-25. It will focus on bolstering
Russia’s nuclear deterrent, rearmament
of strategic and long-range aviation, and
development of precision weapons, joint
arms systems and naval ships. The bud-

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES
get for the new program is to be defined
by the end of October, Putin says.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Emer-
gency Relief and United Aircraft Corp.
(UAC) have agreed on a package deal to
reequip its aviation wing through 2025.
The ministry plans to purchase six mod- to make parts for its US-2 amphibious technology with a purportedly record
ernized, Ilyushin Il-76TD-90A transports aircraft in a bid to expedite a proposed agreement in favor of ViaSat. The Carls-
for delivery from 2016-25 to replace six sales deal with New Delhi and bolster bad, California, satellite and networking
basic Il-76TDs. The military ordered Tokyo’s own domestic defense indus- systems provider said earlier this month
39 Il-76MD-90As under the current rear- try. During a recent summit meeting it will settle its claims in two lawsuits in
mament program and, according to the between Indian Prime Minister Naren- exchange for $100 million, plus interest,
UAC’s CEO, Mikhail Pogosyan, the first dra Modi and Japanese Prime Minister to be paid through 2016. “We believe
will be delivered to the air force this year. Shinzo Abe, the two leaders directed this settlement is the largest ever in a
The ministry’s package includes or- a joint working group to prepare a commercial satellite communications
ders for 10 Sukhoi Superjet 100 regional road map for “development of the intellectual property matter,” said Rick
jets in a multirole configuration, combin- Indian aircraft industry” that would Baldridge, president and COO of ViaSat.
ing airborne command post and medical include the transfer of the US-2 and its According to Loral Space, payments to
evacuation modules. These SSJ100s will technology to India. Japan and India ViaSat will be split equally by Loral and
also be equipped with dosimeters and have been discussing a possible sale of SS/L initially, and then be negotiated
thermal viewers to perform radiation- US-2 short-takeoff-and-landing patrol between the latter two. Loral and SS/L
monitoring missions. To extend their aircraft, manufactured by ShinMaywa have agreed to start arbitration in Octo-
mission range, the SSJ100s will have Industries, for air-sea rescue missions. ber. ViaSat would receive $40 million up
additional fuel tanks, an option that front, and future payments of $60 mil-
had been proposed only for the Sukhoi U.K. Secures Second Carrier lion over 2.5 years with interest. In turn,
Business Jet. Delivery of two SSJ100s is The U.K. has decided to retain its second SS/L said, ViaSat agreed that SS/L and
expected in 2015. The other eight will be Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier, its customers will be free from any law-
purchased through 2025. HMS Prince of Wales, reversing plans to suits with respect to SS/L’s future use of
The ministry also plans to procure mothball it, made in 2010. The decision, 10 patents-in-suit, certain other patents
10 modernized Beriev Be-200 amphib- which had been expected in the next and patent applications, and breach of
ians by 2025. It currently operates six Strategic Defense and Security Review, certain contracts that were the subject
Be-200Chs for search-and-rescue and in 2015, was announced by Prime Min- of the suit, according to Loral Space. The
firefighting missions with six more on ister David Cameron at the end of the settlement also releases Loral, SS/L and
order. According to Pogosyan, the min- NATO summit in Newport, Wales. Work their customers from all claims for pat-
istry wants modernized Be-200 avionics on the ship is underway at the Rosyth ent infringement and breach of contract
and upgraded airframes and engines. naval dockyard near Edinburgh. brought in the two lawsuits.
This may mean selection of a new
powerplant, as the Be-200 is equipped BUSINESS Alcoa, Boeing Make History
with D-436TP turbofans assembled by Alcoa and Boeing have announced their
Ukraine’s Motor Sich. Record Satellite Settlement largest supply contract in their 35-year
ViaSat Communications, Space Sys- history of working together. Details were
Japan OKs US-2 Tech Transfer tems/Loral (SS/L) and Loral Space & not immediately provided, but Alcoa
After ending a decades-long arms em- Communications have settled a 2.5- said Sept. 11 that the “multi-year” deal
bargo, Japan has agreed to allow India year legal dispute over satellite design is “valued at more than $1 billion.” Alcoa

8 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst



“Pilots love this airplane for its quietness

and superb handling characteristics…


its larger flight deck makes pilots feel more comfortable,

especially on long routes.”

“Boeing offers great support for the 787,

making its operation smoother and smoother.”


Captain Pu Ming
VP of Operations
Hainan Airlines

THE DREAMLINER EFFECT.


HAINAN AIRLINES SUCCESS.

www.newairplane.com/787/dreamliner-effect
The World

NASA/BILL INGALLS
said the deal makes it the sole supplier Back on the Ground
to Boeing for wing skins on all of its Cosmonaut Oleg Artemyev gets
metallic-structure airplanes. “Alcoa plate his first look at solid ground
products, used in applications such as after 169 days orbiting Earth on
wing ribs, wing skins or other struc- the International Space Station
tural parts of the aircraft, will also be (ISS). Flight engineer Artemyev,
on every Boeing platform, including the Expedition 40 Commander Steve
787 Dreamliner.” The deal further sets a Swanson of NASA and Alexander
“foundation” for more collaboration on Skvortsov of Russian Federal
new, high-strength and corrosion-resis- Space Agency Roscosmos, also
tant alloys, including aluminum-lithium a flight engineer, landed safely
that could be used for complex struc- in Kazakhstan Sept. 11 in their
tural applications, according to Alcoa. Soyuz TMA-12M capsule.
The agreement comes after Alcoa’s $2.85 All three men appeared weary but in good spirits as they were assisted from their cap-
billion deal to buy the parent company sule for initial medical checks. With Swanson’s return, command of the ISS, normally staffed
of Firth Rixson, a leading provider of by a six-person crew, shifted to Russian Maxim Suraev, who leads the new Expedition 41.
rings and forgings for aircraft engines. NASA’s Reid Wiseman and European Space Agency astronaut Alexander Gerst round out the
Alcoa described the acquisition, which is remaining crew, continuing a 5-6-month stay aboard the ISS that started in late May. They
expected to close this year, as a major ac- are scheduled to be joined on Sept. 25 by three new crewmembers arriving on the Soyuz
celeration in its company’s transforma- TMA-14M spacecraft: NASA’s Barry “Butch” Wilmore and cosmonauts Alexander Samou-
tion, expanding Firth Rixson’s product kutyaev and Elena Serova. A flight test engineer, Serova would become the first Russian
suite in the growing jet engine sector. woman to live and work aboard the space station and the first to fly in orbit since cosmo-
naut Elena Kondakova participated in a nine-day May 1997 NASA space shuttle mission.
ROTORCRAFT NASA declined comment on what it termed “speculative press reports” that Russia may
shift crew training for Soyuz water landings back to a naval base at Sevastopol as a way to
First S-92 Accepted in SAR Deal force its station partners—who must use Soyuz to reach the ISS—to acknowledge annexa-
Helicopter operator Bristow has ac- tion of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. “Russia has maintained strong support for the
cepted the first of 11 Sikorsky S-92 International Space Station, and we expect that will continue into the future,” the U.S. agency
helicopters to be used on an 11-year U.K. states, noting that it is “focused on returning human spaceflight launches to America.”
government search-and-rescue contract.
The Long SAR contract will begin in
April 2015 and will see Bristow operate Phase 1 testing that will begin this fall. 2014 to support the fuel testing, and has
22 helicopters, 11 S-92s and 11 Agus- Two fuels from Swift Fuels, one from indicated plans to match that in fiscal
taWestland AW189s from 10 bases at Shell and another from a consortium of 2015. FAA has set a goal of transitioning
civilian airports and airfields. They will BP, Total and Hjelmco, were selected to an unleaded replacement by 2018.
replace the Sea King helicopters flown from 10 proposals for the first phase. The agency estimates that 167,000
by the Royal Air Force and Royal Navy. Suppliers are to submit 100 gal. of their general aviation aircraft in the U.S. rely
candidate fuels for initial testing. FAA on avgas. It is the sole transportation
BUSINESS AVIATION then plans to narrow the candidates to fuel in the U.S. that contains lead and
one or two fuels that would take part in has become a target of environmental
Stepping Toward Unleaded Phase 2 testing on engines and air- groups that have filed petitions with
FAA is taking the next step toward craft. Providers of those fuels would be the federal Environmental Protection
approving an unleaded replacement for asked to submit 10,000 gal. for testing. Agency and lawsuits to speed up the
aviation gasoline, selecting four fuels for Congress set aside $6 million in fiscal transition to unleaded fuel.

OBITUARY: Hinners also headed the National Air


Noel W. Hinners, a U.S. space scien- and Space Museum in Washington from
tist who helped explore the Moon, 1979-82. He ended his career in 2002
Mars and beyond, died Sept. 5 in at Lockheed Martin Space Systems as
Littleton, Colorado. He was 78 and vice president of flight systems, after
had been suffering from complica- overseeing robotic-exploration missions
tions of basal cell carcinoma. including Mars Global Surveyor, Mars
As a contractor with Bellcomm, Reconnaissance Orbiter and the Star-
Hinners supported the Apollo dust comet-sample-return probe.
NASA FILE PHOTO

program from 1963-72, when he Hinners was educated at Rutgers


became NASA’s director of lunar University, California Institute of Technol-
programs. He later became associ- ogy and Princeton University, where
ate NASA administrator for space he received a Ph.D. in geochemistry in
science, director of Goddard Space Flight Center, and associate 1963. He also chaired the Committee on Human Exploration of the
deputy administrator and chief scientist. National Research Council Space Studies Board.

10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


Up Front By Byron Callan

Contributing columnist
Byron Callan is a director
at Capital Alpha Partners in
Washington.

COMMENTARY Poland, on the other hand, is accel-


erating defense modernization plans.

Mixed Signals Avascent in a recent white paper


observed that Poland could make deci-
sions in the coming 12 months on three
major tenders for missile defense and
Getting Europe to increase support utility and attack helicopters worth
a total of $9.5 billion. Sweden, which
for NATO is easier said than done is not a member of NATO, in April
announced stepped-up defense spend-
he NATO summit that took place in Wales on Sept. 4-5 may
T have marked a bottom in European defense spending. How-
ever, ascents from current levels are apt to be uneven. While
ing plans. Smaller Eastern European
states plan to spend more, but these
amounts may not be significant to
most U.S. and European contractors.
individual countries may be entering growth modes, it’s far from And Turkey has ambitious defense
clear that this is a trend for the entire region. Furthermore, al- modernization plans as well.
though there are two sides to every transaction, the sum of cor- Other risks for European defense
are the outcomes of a Scottish inde-
porate deals announced in 2014 is leaning toward divestitures. pendence referendum on Sept. 18 and
another that could occur
Defense spending by members of Support for sanctions against on Nov. 9 regarding the
the alliance, excluding the U.S., peaked secession of Catalonia from
in 2008 at $334 billion, according to Russia does not appear Spain. Jim Hasik of the
NATO, and declined to $288 billion in Atlantic Council observed
2013. The financial crisis of 2008-09 to have translated to support in an Aug. 26 missive that
and the wind-down of operations in an independent Scotland,
Afghanistan were the two main causes for higher defense spending spending 1.6% of GDP on
for this slide. NATO’s “2 and 20” goal defense would have approxi-
is for members to spend 2% of GDP in Germany, France and Italy. mately the same budget as
on defense and, of that, 20% should be Austria, while Catalonia’s
for investment in military equipment. at that proportion could be
Only four members spent more than There are plans to correct some the size of Denmark’s. What was not
2% in 2013—the U.S., Estonia, Greece shortfalls. The Airbus A400M should addressed is how these changes affect
and the U.K. (a brief issued by the Roy- bolster strategic lift and aerial refuel- the economies and spending plans of
al United Services Institute on Sept. 4 ing, particularly as it replaces the the parents of these new states. Think-
speculated that U.K. defense spending smaller, shorter-range Transalls that ing into 2015-17, there are other poten-
could drop below 2% in 2015). Of the is the basis of Germany’s and France’s tial state fragmentation scenarios in
20% goal, only four members—France, tactical airlift. Upgrades to Eurofighter Europe to consider if new-state drives
Turkey, the U.K. and U.S.—exceeded Typhoons and possibly Dassault succeed in Scotland and Catalonia.
the standard. Rafales to bring older aircraft to multi- There are two sides to every
The communique issued at the role standards are planned, and muni- transaction, but one other observa-
close of the summit included a pledge tions and precision-guided weapons tion is that there are divestitures of
by members who don’t spend 2% to shortfalls also should be addressed. defense businesses based in Europe.
“halt any decline in defense expendi- So far, changes in European defense Last April, Chemring of the U.K. an-
ture.” They also were to “aim to” raise spending have been mixed, however, nounced it was selling Simmel Difesa
defense spending to keep pace with and while aiming for 2%, some states and Mecar to Nexter Systems. And
inflation and “move toward the 2% may still miss that mark. Last June, on Sept. 5, Esterline announced it
guideline within a decade.” Germany’s defense minister said was selling Wallop Defense Systems,
These aspirations on the surface spending could rise, but fiscal disci- which is a U.K.-based expendable
suggest European defense markets may pline would prevent achieving the 2% countermeasures and pyrotechnics
be entering a growth phase. Indeed, op- goal soon. Recent economic data in company. Chemring’s move was
erations in Libya in 2011 and by French Europe is sour and while countries the outcome of a broader strategic
forces in Mali in 2012 underscored such as France may bridle against fiscal review, and Esterline believed Wallop
capability gaps that now appear to have restraint, weak economic conditions could not be effectively integrated
been corrected. Conflicts on NATO’s place demands on other government into the rest of its U.S.-based defense
borders in Ukraine, Libya and Syria/ spending. Public backing for sanctions technologies platform. This behavior
Iraq could provide further real-time au- against Russia does not appear to have suggests corporations may also be
dits of progress in addressing defense translated to support for higher defense wary of European defense growth
gaps for European members of NATO. spending in Germany, France and Italy. prospects. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 11


Commander’s Intent By Bill Sweetman
Read Sweetman’s posts on
our weblog ARES, updated daily:
AviationWeek.com/ares
bill.sweetman@aviationweek.com

COMMENTARY characteristics (such as payload) have


been constrained as well.

Secrecy’s Peril Keeping technical details secret


can be defended: The size and shape
of a stealth aircraft can guide the
development of countermeasures. But
Only mushrooms thrive in the dark beyond that point, secrecy creates its
own problems: high costs and weak
he Air Force Association’s annual convention this week will
T be pervaded by more than the usual unreality. Like a dark
planet that can only be detected by the visible orbits it perturbs,
oversight. If the technology works well,
secrecy can inhibit its deployment.
For example, some Pentagon lead-
ers and airpower philosophers are in
the Long Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B) project will be ever- favor of more long-range aircraft and
present but invisible. missiles, which, absent fiscal miracles,
mean fewer fighters. Whatever the
The world of classified merits of this argument, it will go pre-
defense projects didn’t get cisely nowhere so long as its advocates
the memo when a 2008 can show nothing except a generic
presidential candidate black-draped shape labeled “trust me.”
promised “the most trans- With the exception of the B-1B,
parent administration in every U.S. bomber project launched
history.” (It never does.) since 1946 has been shot down or
The black world rumbles truncated by adversary coalitions
on: mystery aircraft over including, but not limited to, peaceniks,
Amarillo; public affairs arms controllers, missileers, reform-
officers discovering B-2 ers, fighter generals, cheap-hawks,
three-ship flights that they aircraft carrier fans and boots-on-the-
categorically denied had ground gunny sergeants. Secrecy will
happened; another burst not stop that debate forever. As we saw
of new construction at when the B-2 came under attack the
Groom Lake (see photo); moment that it was unveiled, secrecy
and mysterious deck-clearing at Ed- McDonnell Douglas/General Dynamics strangles the pro-bomber case. After
wards AFB’s South Base complex. A-12, both of which were misdirected you have spent many years and billions
Public information on LRS-B com- by people working inside the security of dollars keeping secrets, it looks op-
prises three basic numbers: a $550 bubble. The B-2 was made later and portunistic at best to lift the veil when
million unit acquisition cost, an 80-100 more costly by a well-intentioned move the program is threatened.
aircraft fleet and a 2025 in-service to add low-altitude capability that will It’s not as if secrecy will keep the
date—and a budget profile out to 2019. almost certainly never be used. The politicians’ greasy hands out of the
Congressional Research Service A-12’s requirements probably were machinery, either. California’s legisla-
analyst Jeremiah Gertler concludes unobtainable, short of magic, but hand- tors already dropped the hammer on
from that profile that the next step ing the job to the less-qualified team Northrop Grumman’s flirtation with
is full-scale development, founded on after Northrop and Grumman refused a Florida LRS-B design and manu-
secret demonstration programs that to sign a fixed-price contract is what facturing center, by offering a $400
survived the 2009 cancellation of the doomed the program. million subsidy for “strategic air-
2018-delivery Next Generation Bomber That said, there has been a good craft subcontractors” (that would be
(NGB). That would place the competi- deal of sensible work on the LRS-B Lockheed Martin). The language was
tors—a Boeing/Lockheed Martin team requirement. From all accounts, it not changed until Northrop Grum-
and Northrop Grumman—in a direct represents a step back from the NGB man undertook to build the aircraft in
contest for a source selection next year. requirements, with less payload and Palmdale (AW&ST Sept. 1, p. 24).
If Gertler is right, the secrecy sur- persistence, and designed as part of There’s also the risk of the “secrecy
rounding LRS-B is more expansive a family of systems rather than an oops.” Whoever sold the B-2’s radar
than for any aircraft program of its all-capable “Battlestar Galactica.” It operating frequency for commercial
size since the 1980s. Even the demon- exploits new developments in stealth use, leading to a $1 billion-plus retrofit,
strators that preceded the F-22 were technology that make it more robust did not know what they were doing.
acknowledged five years before source across wavebands, aspect angles and Secrecy serves a military purpose,
selection, and were shown in public time. For a downsized aircraft, $550 but only up to a point. A weapon that
before that decision was made. million is, at least, not unrealistically is so secret that it can’t be defended,
On the secrecy spectrum, LRS-B low and it appears that not only is the and is consequently canceled, is no
is more like the Northrop B-2 and the cost capped, but that major physical good to anyone. c

12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


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COMMENTARY calculates the presidential visit cost


his company $15,000-20,000 in lost

VIP Treatment revenue, “a huge financial loss for us.”


Meanwhile, Michael Siegel, COO of
Fly The Whale, a charter outfit that
operates floatplanes from Manhattan,
A traveling bubble of protection and angst reported having to cancel 12 flights
that weekend because of the TFR.
or a veteran road warrior, it had the makings of an ideal trip.
F There was plenty of lucrative business to conduct, parties to
attend and even the nuptials of an old family friend to celebrate.
Considering seats-full flights can gross
$5,000 or more, any consternation is
understandable.
Liebert calls the president’s actions
As it came to pass, the trip “selfishly motivated” and demonstrat-
skewed from the plan, and ed “a reckless abuse of power.” Side-
proved to be a costly imposi- stepping the former characterization,
tion for many—one likely to when it comes to the matter of TFRs,
be repeated maddeningly presidential power has limitations.
often, with little notice, and Historically, FAA created TFRs
seemingly anywhere. to manage airspace over forest fires,
The traveling warrior was natural disasters and similar emergen-
and is commander in chief, cy sites. However, after the terrorist
and the focal point of his visit attacks of 9/11, TFRs became the tool
was Westchester County Air- of federal security managers within the
port, a key business aviation Secret Service, Pentagon, CIA, FBI,
facility located 25 mi. north of FAA and other agencies, which imple-
Times Square in Manhattan. ment them as they deem necessary to
While a visit by the president AIRCRAFT OWNERS & PILOTS ASSOCIATION
safeguard VIPs. There is some con-
of the United States can stir sultation with representatives of the
excitement among locals, many within with the president and vice president, aviation community about TFR design
the area’s aviation community felt among others. While the radius of and operational impact, but security is
entirely different emotions about this the zone varies, it is not small. For always paramount.
alighting of Air Force One, since the this trip, it covered most of metro- So how often are TFRs created?
visit was set for Labor Day weekend— politan New York and beyond. While Brian Throop, FAA manager of special
almost all of it. scheduled airline flights are largely operations-security, told attendees of
In the U.S., that three-day holiday unaffected by TFRs, non-scheduled the National Air Transportation As-
marks the unofficial end of summer flying—encompassing almost all busi- sociation Air Charter Summit earlier
and typically involves family escapes ness and general aviation flights—is this year that there are typically 150
to the beach or lakefront for baseball, severely curtailed. And some activity, active TFRs at any given time and as
waterskiing, cold beer and hot dogs. It including flight training, seaplane op- many as 6,000 a year—not counting
is one of the most traveled weekends of erations, air tours and even balloon- those over sporting events. That’s
the year. So, in that regard, the presi- ing, for goodness sake, are prohibited right: 6,000. And that figure will likely
dent was one with the people, since in altogether. increase.
addition to attending a wedding, his While notice of this TFR came a few “I would love to say you would see
Westchester visit included barbecues days in advance, they can spring up less and less of these,” he said, “but
with political supporters who were with little warning, and any unwitting that wouldn’t be true.” Rather, he con-
reportedly donating up to $32,000 per pilots who breach it can expect the full tinued, TFRs “are going to be popping
person to share a cheeseburger with wrath of the FAA. That prospect is so up like popcorn all over the country.”
the man. intimidating, and the rules so restric- A part of the reason is that TFRs
However, his afternoon arrival Aug. tive, that many pilots beat an exit are also implemented for those seek-
29—a Friday—coincided with the before a TFR takes effect or simply ing to succeed the current holders
aforementioned mass exodus of sun- stay on the ground for the duration. of high office. To understand which
and-fun seekers. That caused prob- And those without options suffer. contenders are so protected, when
lems for motorists, who found main As it happened, the president did this protection begins, and under what
roadways blocked for the presidential not overnight in Westchester County circumstances, I asked the Transpor-
convoy, and those who wanted to be in as originally planned, but the visit took tation Security Administration, which
the air, as a result of the Temporary a toll just the same. Lewis Liebert, directed me to the FAA, which in turn
Flight Restrictions (TFR). owner of Performance Flight, a flight deferred to the Secret Service.
For the unfamiliar, a TFR is es- training, charter and aircraft man- And true to its name, it’s keeping
sentially a no-fly zone that travels agement operation at the airport, those answers secret. c

14 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


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and Logistics

Wes Kremer, VP Air & Mike Madsen, President, Nan Mattai, SVP 2% ƫ$+),/+*ČƫČƫ 2% ƫ*ƫ1.!*Čƫ+.,ċƫ
Missile Defense Systems, Honeywell Defense & Engineering & Technology, Orbital Sciences Sr. Vice President -
Raytheon Missile Systems Space +'3!((ƫ+((%*/ Business Strategy,
ġăƫ+))1*%0%+*/
,ƫ,$+0+ƫ0+ƫ(!.*ƫ)+.!ƫ+10ƫ!$ƫ/,!'!.ċ
+ƫ(!.*ƫ)+.!ƫ+10ƫ((ƫ+"ƫ0$!ƫ/,!'!./ƫ0ƫĒƫ.+#.)/Čƫ2%/%0ƫ333ċ2%0%+*3!!'ċ+)ĥ!2!*0/ĥ ,

November 19-20, 2014


%#3)ƫ!/+.0ƫđƫ %0$üƫ!( ƫ.'Čƫ
CONFERENCE AGENDA
November 18, 2014
7:15 a.m.- ,!! !3/Ěƫ!.+/,!ƫĒƫ!"!*/!ƫ * 1/0.5ƫ1,,(%!./ƫ+*"!.!*!ƫSeparate registration required.
7:00 p.m.

November 19, 2014


7:30- !#%/0.0%+*ƫģƫWigwam Foyer
3:00 p.m.

7:30- .!'"/0ƫģƫMohave Ballroom


8:30 a.m.

((ƫ+*"!.!*!ƫ/!//%+*/ƫ3%((ƫ0'!ƫ,(!ƫ%*ƫ0$!ƫ%#3)ƫ((.++)ƫ1*(!//ƫ
+0$!.3%/!ƫ%* %0! ċƫ
8:30 a.m. !(+)!
Greg Hamilton, President, Aviation Week
ƫĒƫ Sponsored by Deloitte, LLP
8:40 a.m. %2+0/Čƫ.%+.%0%!/Čƫ.+#.)/
The U.S. Defense Department continues to seek balance between cost “This event was
and investment, between dominance and good-enough, and between extremely stimulating
defending against non-government threats and world powers.
Moderator: Tom Captain, Vice Chairman, Deloitte, LLP and covered ‘tough’
Alan F. Estevez Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for areas that you won’t
Acquisition, Technology and Logistics
find covered anywhere
9:15 a.m. +3ƫďƫ$0ƫ% ƫ+1ƫ
1/0ƫ!.ĕ else. The amount of
Our panel of analysis experts returns again this year to provide their
perspectives on strategy, innovation, in-side thinking and Wall Street. commonality across
Byron Callan, Director, Capital Alpha Partners the industry was
Pierre Chao, Managing Director/Co-Founder, Renaissance Strategic
Advisors striking.”
Steven Grundman, George Lund Fellow, Atlantic Council
Kenneth J. Krieg, former Undersecretary of Defense/AT&L and — Michelle Munk,
Founder, Samford Global
10:15 a.m.
Technology
.!'ƫģƫWigwam Foyer
Development Mgr.,
10:30 a.m. .!0%*#ƫ0$!ƫ * 1/0.%(ƫ/!ƫ+"ƫ0$!ƫ101.!
Members of the A&D community responsible for identifying and sourc-
NASA-Langley
ing the materials, services, and components of the future increasingly
are using data analytics to assess the health of the supply chain/value
stream – and get an early read on supplier quality, performance and
risk.
Dana Hullinger, Director Supply Chain Strategy, Intelligence &
Analytics, Boeing Defense Space & Security
Lisa Kohl, Sector VP Global Supply Chain, Northrop Grumman
Aerospace Systems
Dan Pleshko, VP Aeronautics Quality Transformation, Lockheed Martin
Corp.
11:30 a.m. ĒĚ/ƫ101.!ƫ ! !./ƫ,!'ƫ10
Aerospace and defense leaders across the industry are carefully 
balancing the need to cut costs and the need to preserve opportuni- ƫĂĀāăƫ
ties for today’s young professionals. After hearing from our industry 
experts and leaders, this session will provide the perspectives of four
young professionals — where they see opportunity, challenges ...and
concerns.
Michael Bruno, Sr. Business/Supply Chain Editor, Aviation Week
12:15 p.m. 1*$ƫģƫMohave Ballroom
Sponsored by AZ Commerce Authority

!#%/0!.ƫ*+3ēƫ333ċ2%0%+*3!!'ċ+)ĥ!2!*0/ĥ ,
 ƫ 
1:30 p.m. !40ƫ.0%!/čƫ!5+* ƫ+),(%*!ƫģƫ ƫ#%(%05
Earned Value Management has never been associated with agility or
speed, but in this session we’ll see how industry program managers are
using EVM as a strategic tool, to include leading indicators and early
visibility to guide industry investment.
Moderator: Dan Rice, VP Technical Operations, Lockheed Martin
Information Systems & Global Solutions.
Colin Dorsett, Director - Orion Program, Honeywell Space Systems
Scott Pfeiler, Director, Aftermarket Programs, 767 Large Display System
(LDS) Retrofit, Rockwell Collins Program Excellence
Brad Shaw, PM Phantom Eye, Boeing Phantom Works Preview: What’s In/
Ken Hunt, Deputy PM, J-2X Engine Program, Aerojet Rocketdyne What’s Out in Program
2:15 p.m. !40ƫ.0%!/čƫ *0!#.0%*#ƫ0$!ƫ1,,(5ƫ$%*ƫ Management.
!)%*/ƫ+,ƫ$((!*#!ƫ"+.ƫ /
Program executives from across the industry agree on one thing —
integrating the supply chain into the daily rhythm of the program and
its efforts to cut and avoid costs remains one of the top three issues.
Three program leaders, recognized as part of the Aviation Week Pro- Tap to listen
gram Excellence Awards initiative, will share what they are doing to
make this a foundational capability, not an issue.
Moderator: Rob Kolosieke, Director Programs, Northrop Grumman
Electronic Systems
Steve Parker, VP Cargo Helicopters, Boeing Defense, Space & Security
Gary Kushner, PM, Interface Region imaging Spectrograph (IRIS),
Lockheed Martin
Larry Thimmesch, VP 525 Program, Bell Helicopter
3:00 p.m. * ƫ+"ƫ5
6:30 p.m. .+#.)ƫ4!((!*!ƫ!!,0%+*ƫģƫSachem West
7:00 p.m. .+#.)ƫ4!((!*!ƫ*-1!0ƫģƫSachem East
Sponsored by Dassault Systèmes

November 20, 2014


8:00- !#%/0.0%+*ƫģƫWigwam Foyer
3:00 p.m.
8:00- .!'"/0ƫģƫMohave Ballroom
8:30 a.m.
((ƫ+*"!.!*!ƫ/!//%+*/ƫ3%((ƫ0'!ƫ,(!ƫ%*ƫ0$!ƫ%#3)ƫ((.++)ƫ1*(!//ƫ
+0$!.3%/!ƫ%* %0! ċƫ
8:30 a.m. !(+)!
Joseph C. Anselmo, Editor-in-Chief, Aviation Week & Space Technology

 ƫ
8:40 a.m. 0.0!#%!/ƫ"+.ƫ!(%*#ƫ3%0$ƫ%2+0/Čƫ
+3*01.*/Čƫ!$*+(+#%(ƫ$((!*#!/
Leaders from space and defense/security operations will provide their   ƫ ƫ
perspectives on what the coming 24 months will bring, from meeting   čƫ,%*%+*čƫ
new demand signals to preserving investment in the future. Defense Companies
David Koopersmith, VP/GM Vertical Lift Programs, Boeing Defense Space !//!//ƫ+.0"+(%+/ƫ
& Security %*ƫ %#$0ƫ+"ƫ(+(ƫ
Mike Madsen, President, Honeywell Defense & Space $*#!
Jim Stameson, President and CEO, Plasma Ruggedized Tap to Learn More.

David Van Buren, Corp. Sr. Vice President-Business Strategy,


L-3 Communications

November 19-20, 2014


%#3)ƫ!/+.0ƫđƫ %0$üƫ!( ƫ.'Čƫ
9:20 a.m. $.!0ƫ//!//)!*0ƫ* ƫ %//%(!ƫûƫ!*/!ĥ!"!*/!
Technology and program requirements for the space and defense
sectors rest on the threat and opportunity assessment. As we begin
our program updates, we’ll look first at what the Defense Department
is establishing as threat priorities.
Tom Karako, Visiting Fellow, Center for Strategic and
International Studies
Wes Kremer, VP Air & Missile Defense Systems,
Raytheon MIssile Systems
10:00 a.m. Break
10:15 a.m. It’s All About Connections T,ƫ!$ƫ$! (%*!ƫ0+
T
A decade ago all the buzz was about network centric capabilities. +3*(+ ƫ0$!ƫ"1((ƫ.0%(!
Today, the focus is on creating connectivity between assets, from space ".+)ƫ2%0%+*ƫ!!'
to ground, with game changers such as Facebook and Google in the
mix. This session will look at the key connectivity challenges and what
these will mean to every program.
+'ƫ* ƫ +0!
Moderator: Amy Butler, Sr. Pentagon Editor, Aviation Week & Space
Technology
Paul DeLia, Chief Technology Officer, L-3 Communications (+(ƫ(%#$0ƫ.'%*#ƫģƫ
11:00 a.m. !40ƫ!*!.0%+*ƫ%.."0 !2!.ƫ#%*
Just when everyone sensed there was a lull in new aircraft platforms, a
wellspring of opportunity is developing — and industry is responding in  %0+.%(čƫ,!Ě/ƫ(*ƫ
ways designed to play on everyone’s strengths. $+3/ƫ##.!//%2!ƫ
Darryl Davis, President, Phantom Works, Boeing Defense Space & Security *2!/0)!*0ƫ *ƫĒ
Tom Vice, Corporate VP and President, Northrop Grumman
Aerospace Systems 5#*1/ƫ!(%2!./ƫ.#+ƫ*ƫ
Rob Weiss, Executive VP/General Manager for Advanced !+* ƫ+))!.%(ƫ ƫ
Development Programs, Lockheed Martin Skunk Works (%#$0
11:45 a.m. $!ƫ!ƫ%/ƫ*
While the dollars may be limited from a NASA perspective, the entirety
of the space race took on new meaning in March and April as
companies around the globe began setting in place strategies to
secure their position in the commercial satellite, defense, and civil
space arenas. Among the boldest moves was the merger of Orbital
Sciences and ATK, designed to provide a new mode of propulsion to
Orbital from an internal resource, and a business that widened the
aperture of opportunity for both companies.
David Thompson, CEO, Orbital Sciences
12:30 p.m. 1*$ƫģƫMohave Ballroom
  ƫĒƫ  
1:00 p.m. /!ƫ01 5čƫ1*01)ƫ+),10%*#ƫ* ƫ **+20%+*
There’s no quick shift from today’s computing power to quantum
computing and where its capabilities allow scientists and engineers to
shift their focus. Lockheed Martin has invested in quantum computing
capabilities at University of Southern California and is bringing forth
the lessons learned in terms of processes and practices that affect
design, development and collaboration.
Jennifer Byrne, VP Corporate Engineering & Technology, Lockheed
Martin Aeronautics Co.
2:15 p.m. *#%*!!.%*#ƫ0$!ƫ101.!
Based on the lessons learned by Lockheed Martin in quantum  ƫƫ ƫġƫ
computing, as well as additional innovations from materials to **+20%+*ƫ* ƫ0$!ƫ0$ƫ0+ƫ
software, engineering leaders look to the future and why today’s Success for Aerospace &
digital tool set and processes need a major overhaul to enable the age Defense Companies
of supercomputing, advanced materials and advanced manufacturing.
Nan Mattai, SVP Engineering & Technology, Rockwell Collins
Daryl Pelc, VP Engineering & Product Support, Global Services &
Support, Boeing Defense Space & Security
Peter Smith, VP Engineering, United Technologies Aerospace Systems
Randy Robertson, Corporate Fellow, Honeywell Inc.
3:00 p.m. +*"!.!*!ƫ* /

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counterparts, and leaders from
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Sneak-Peek: What to expect from the
4!((!*!ƫ3. /ƫ+'0%(ƫ
finalists and next practice honorees
for the 2014 Aviation Week Program Reception and Banquet on
Excellence Awards. Tap to listen $1./ 5Čƫ+2!)!.ƫĂĀƫ0+ƫüƫ* ƫ
+10ƫ3$+ƫ.!ƫ0$!ƫ3%**!./ē

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interest for equipment manufacturers, business and Register for A&D Programs and the A&D Defense
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November 19-20, 2014


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Featuring very relevant topics.”
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Get your FREE exhibition hall pass
now at www.aviationweek.com/mromideast
In Orbit By Frank Morring, Jr.
Senior Editor Frank
Morring, Jr., blogs at:
AviationWeek.com/onspace
morring@aviationweek.com

COMMENTARY has been used to pull a payload from a


Dragon’s unpressurized-cargo element,

Earth-Observation App and the first robotics procedure to


include provisions for returning the in-
strument to the Dragon’s power plugs
for reheating in case installation takes
Watching our planet from the ISS longer than its 5-hr. thermal window.
ISS-RapidScat is the first of six
ngineers managing the International Space Station are
E preparing to kick off a new use for the orbiting outpost that
has not been seriously considered for human spaceflight since
Earth-observation instruments NASA
plans to send to the space station. Next
up—as early as December on another
Dragon—will be the Cloud-Aerosol
the old U.S. Air Force Manned Orbiting Laboratory and Soviet Transport System (CATS), a lidar
Almaz military reconnaissance space stations were defunded in scanner that will measure clouds and
the 1960s and ’70s—monitoring the home planet. aerosols in the atmosphere. In addition
to providing better climate-change

NASA/DAVID D. BOWMAN
Cold War military planners figured monitoring of clouds, it will also be able
out that robotic spacecraft could to track ash from volcanic eruptions,
deliver more imagery, thereby stretch- such as the one in Iceland that forced
ing funding dollars. Now scientists are cancellation of almost 10,000 airline
finding that the massive multipurpose flights in 2010 to circumvent possible
ISS has a little something for everyone, engine damage from mineral particles.
including oceanographers, climatolo- Also in the queue for spots on the
gists and meteorologists, and at lower ISS exterior are the Stratospheric
cost than custom-built birds. Aerosol and Gas Experiment III, or
Barring the usual delays, a SpaceX SAGE III (see photo), set for launch in
Dragon capsule is slated to deliver the 2016, and the Lightning Imaging Sensor
first in a series of Earth-observation scheduled for a flight in 2017. NASA has
instruments to the station later this chosen two more instruments for devel-
month. With the clock ticking on the ISS-RapidScat’s 560-mi. swath and opment and installation on the ISS to
$100 billion facility’s limited lifetime, 240-mi. orbital altitude will permit daily measure global-vegetation factors. The
NASA and its partners continue to observations of more than 90% of the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investiga-
seek and find applications that were not Earth when fused with the scattero- tion (GEDI) is being designed to mea-
necessarily under consideration when meter data from polar orbiters, says sure carbon content in the Earth’s for-
ISS assembly began. Ernesto Rodriguez of the Jet Propul- ests, and the ECOsystem Spaceborne
When it flies, the Dragon’s unpres- sion Laboratory, project scientist on Thermal Radiometer Experiment on
surized “trunk” will include ISS- the instrument. That will allow more Space Station (Ecostress) will advance
RapidScat—the latest in a series of complete long-term measurements of Landsat measurements of water stress
space-based scatterometers designed to the synergy between ocean winds and on vegetation.
measure wind direction and speed over climate change and short-term moni- Volz says the ISS is a relatively low-
the world’s oceans. Because the ISS flies toring of hurricanes and other tropi- cost way to monitor Earth-observation
at a lower-altitude, lower-inclination cal cyclones that could lead to better instruments in space, but notes that
orbit, the new instrument will give landfall warnings, he says. “there are no specific plans” to use
scientists and weather forecasters a Also on the Dragon will be a JPL- lessons learned there to develop more-
more complete and timely view of ocean developed “nadir adapter” to keep the capable free-flying scientific satellites.
winds when its data are combined with instrument’s rotating radar antenna “The measurement techniques that
that of other spacecraft. pointing downward, even though it will will be demonstrated by CATS, or by
“The precessing orbit [and] the be mounted on the European Columbus GEDI, or Ecostress are highly desir-
51-deg. inclination of the ISS [provide] module’s sideways-looking External able measurements that we hope will
different solar-viewing angles of the Payload Facility SDX. be providing critical information for
same phenomena we’re observing with Robotics operators at Mission us. They’re very similar to some of the
the polar satellites,” says Steve Volz, Control Center-Houston will use the measurement concepts that have been
associate director for flight programs station’s Canadian-built Canadarm2 in work in our decadal surveys and our
at NASA’s Earth Science Div. “That and its Special Purpose Dexterous other strategic science surveys. . . .
really allows them to look at the same Manipulator (Dextre) to retrieve and Successful demonstration by any or all
phenomena at different perspectives, install the two pieces of hardware. of these instruments would certainly
angles and times of day, which gives Melanie Miller, the lead SpaceX-4 ro- influence our decisions on how to go
a much more complete picture of the botics officer at Johnson Space Center, about getting the longer-term mea-
environment we’re trying to measure.” says it will be the second time Dextre surements.” c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 17


Washington Outlook Edited by Jen DiMascio

Managing Editor-Defense,
Space & Security Jen DiMascio blogs
at: AviationWeek.com/ares
jennifer.dimascio@aviationweek.com

COMMENTARY caution,” says the Aircraft Owners and


Pilots Association (AOPA). Of particu-

Replace and Upgrade lar interest is the growing percentage


of fatalities that involve pilots holding
expired FAA medical certification or
no certification, from 10% or less in
Pentagon asks to transfer cash for eight JSFs 1990 to about 20% in 2012. The sport
pilot certificate, created in 2005, does
ven though U.S. missions are shifting from a drawdown in
E Afghanistan to airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, the practice of
using wartime funding to pay for long-term projects remains in
not require an FAA medical certificate.
AOPA, which is lobbying the FAA and
Congress to expand the sport-pilot
certification model to larger popula-
vogue. When the Pentagon requests money from the “overseas tions of general aviation pilots, cau-
contingency operations” account, it is supposed to be applied to tions against drawing a link between
the study and the certificate issue.
current conflicts. But sometimes, the funds go toward purchas- “There are just far too many gaps and
ing upgrades. It started in 2007, when then-Deputy Defense unknowns in this study for us to be
Secretary Gordon England redefined what was the “emergency able to draw any meaningful conclu-
sions about aviation safety,” says AOPA
supplemental” to allow the Pentagon to replace equipment lost President Mark Baker. c
in combat with newer, more modern gear. He proceeded to ask
for two Lockheed Martin-made Joint Strike Fighters. CONSERVING CURIOSITY
Scientists have found a shorter
Now, as the military is poised route for the Curiosity Mars rover
to launch new airstrikes, Con- to take onto the high mountain that
gress is considering requesting has loomed on the horizon since the
another transfer of funds to the nuclear-powered robot landed on Aug.
tune of $2 billion. And more than 6, 2012. And they do not plan to shift
$1 billion of that would buy eight the course just because an indepen-
F-35 fighters: six Marine Corps dent review panel has criticized their
F-35Bs to replace AV-8B Harri- plan for collecting too few samples
ers lost in combat; and two Air and offering “a poor science return for
Force F-35s to replace F-15s, also U.S. NAVY such a large investment.” “We have to
lost in combat—despite the fact have a good reason to drill something,”
that the F-35 is not scheduled to The Pentagon seeks more than says John Grotzinger of the California
be operational until 2016. The $1 billion to buy eight additional Institute of Technology, the Curiosity
combat losses were reported in chief project scientist (AW&ST Sept. 8,
2012 and 2013, according to the F-35s in fiscal 2014. p. 20), in a press conference called to
Sept. 8 request. The Defense De- address criticism by the NASA Plan-
partment also seeks 21 Apache helicop- General Electric and even European etary Senior Review Panel. The new
ters remanufactured to the AH-64E manufacturer Airbus—a provision route up Mount Sharp in the center of
configuration for “manned-unmanned that extends the Export-Import Bank’s equatorial Gale Crater trims about a
teaming.” Four congressional commit- operating authority through June kilometer off the original route and will
tees must still approve the request. c 2015. Inclusion of the Ex-Im legislation get the rover to places where scientists
may delay House action on the overall using data collected by the fleet of or-
CONTINUED OPERATIONS spending bill, notes Stan Collender, of biters believe there may be some “new
This Congress may not have accom- the Washington-based public relations science” to be found. As it happened,
plished much during its two years, consulting firm Qorvis. But ultimately, Curiosity achieved its main mission
but it likely will manage to keep the he concludes: “As long as a [continuing goal—finding evidence Mars once was
government’s lights on through early resolution] is sent to the White House habitable—with the first hole it drilled.
December. To do so, lawmakers must and the president is willing to sign by Now the emphasis will shift to gather-
pass a spending bill, known as a con- Oct. 1, the timing of the House vote re- ing data on mineralogy that might
tinuing resolution, by Sept. 30. ally doesn’t matter.” c preserve organics. The new route also
Since the bill is the one and only will reduce wear and tear on the rover,
piece of legislation that lawmakers must DRUG TEST which has suffered serious damage to
pass before the November elections, A new study by the NTSB looking at its lightweight aluminum wheels driv-
it does not solely focus on spending. the results of toxicology tests of pilots ing across the rocky crater floor. “We
It also includes a plum for companies who were killed while at the controls do worry about overuse,” says Grotz-
including Boeing, United Technologies, of aircraft should be “regarded with inger. “The vehicle is a consumable.” c

18 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


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Sweet Spot
Launch of higher-density variants
underlies inexorable narrowbody growth trend
Guy Norris Los Angeles and Jens Flottau Frankfurt

ize or more specifically, capacity, is important. That is the

S continuing message from airlines as they increasingly look


to squeeze more revenue out of the necessarily limited
gauge of the single-aisle market.

The charge is led by the low-cost moves to offer higher-capacity variants of the MAX 7 and the A319neo.
carriers (LLC) where high-density are a clear sign that other sweet spots Airbus believes average capacity
seating is as much a part of the busi- are out there for the taking. of single-aisle aircraft will rise to 151
ness model as reduced operating costs Market forecasts support the two seats from 129 over the next 30 years.
and lower fares. Now, with the LLC manufacturers’ line of reasoning. As Twenty percent of narrowbodies will
sector promising to make up more data in the June edition of the Airline be in the 210-seat category, Airbus
than one-third of the future single-aisle Monitor show, Airbus has delivered 877 predicts, and another 23% will have
market, both Airbus and Boeing are A321s since the start of the program around 175 seats.
taking notice. The result is a growing and until 2013. That compares to 3,544 The trend to boost passenger ca-
number of higher-capacity models on A320s since entry into service of what pacity has been observed in many seg-
offer or in development, and the pro- has historically been the core of the ments of the market; 50-seaters are on
gressive increase in average seat count A320 family (and 1,395 A319s). The the way out in regional air transport,
across the range. latest Airline Monitor forecast predicts soon to be followed by 70-seaters. The
Ryanair’s $11 billion launch of Boe- that until 2035, Airbus will build 425 latest generation of what were formerly
ing’s high-density seating 737 MAX A319neos, 7,225 A320neos and 3,225 defined as regional jets, Embraer’s E-2
200 and Airbus’s recent decision to A321neos. The share of the largest family, starts at almost 90 seats and the
offer increased capacity versions of variant will therefore increase from manufacturer will stop building the Em-
the A320neo and A321neo are in the around 15% to almost 30%. Airbus is braer 170. Airlines are pushing ATR to
phalanx of this upward movement. expanding its capacity to produce up develop a new turboprop with 90 seats.
The market is speaking, and having to 19 A321s per month, almost half of Bombardier is offering its CSeries with
seen the A319neo take only 2% of the the total rate for the A320 family. up to 160 seats in an effort to capture
total neo backlog of 3,257 firm orders The picture is even more dramatic part of the low-fare airline market.
so far, and the 737-7 take exactly the for Boeing. The 737-900 accounted for Interestingly, the trend to upsiz-
same percentage of the MAX’s order only 5.9% of all next-generation deliv- ing has not yet been observed to the
tally, the two manufacturers are an- eries (the type was only introduced same extent in the widebody sector
swering. However, while the order- in 2001). But the share of the MAX where Boeing has introduced the rela-
books confirm that the “sweet spot” 9 could rise nearly fivefold to almost tively small 787-8. However, a double–
has so far been firmly in the current 30% if current predictions are right. stretch version of the aircraft has been
A320neo and 737-8 seat ranges, the The shift comes mainly at the expense launched and the two 777X versions

20 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


From the Archives Read AW&ST’s today we are working with customers price wars, Ryanair will win.” The air-
1965 article on Boeing’s decision to who do want to maximize the capacity, line, which currently flies an all-Boe-
increase the size of the 737, which was then and in many cases that is really about ing fleet of 300 737-800s, says it also
still in the design stage. seat pitch. Later this year we will cer- remains committed to taking the 180
tify the -900ER at 220 passengers. We additional 737-800s it ordered last year
AviationWeek.com/737Size are not changing the doors; it is re- from Boeing in a deal valued at $15.6
will also be larger than the current 777- ally about seat configuration and the billion. Fueled by this influx of aircraft,
200ER and -300ER. Neither the 747-8 changes to the -900ER can roll to the O’Leary says Ryanair’s fleet will grow
nor A380 have seen strong demand. MAX.” Boeing has no plan to match the to 420 in the next five years and to 520
In the narrowbody market, Boeing A321neo at 240 seats, “but for the 737 in the five years beyond that.
and Airbus are adopting slightly dif- we continue to look at new configura- “The extra seats will generate
ferent strategies and have introduced tions,” she adds. about $1 million per aircraft that will
a new dynamic into the marketplace by In the meantime, the go-ahead of the flow through to the bottom line,” says
effectively leap-frogging the models of MAX 200, which Ryanair will config- O’Leary. “It [will truly] change the game
its competitor. The MAX 200, for ex- ure with seating for 197, means Boeing in Europe over the next 10 years as we
ample, is effectively Boeing’s response already has three major and one sub- double in size.” Boosted by the expand-
to Airbus’s decision to match the base- model on its development plate. The ing fleet, the airline plans to grow from
line 737-8 by growing the A320neo to variant will become available in 2019 approximately 80 million passengers
189 seats; the development of the 240- as the final versions of the three main per year to more than 150 million over
737 MAX models—the –7, -8 and -9— the next decade.
are developed and certificated. The The minor model derivative will in-
current schedule calls for the corporate the mid-fuselage additional
737-8 to be certified first passenger-exit door of the higher-ca-
in 2017, the -9 in 2018 pacity 215-seat 737-9 to satisfy regu-
and the -7 in 2019. Ry- latory safety emergency evacuation
anair, which has placed firm requirements. The modification pro-
orders for 100 and options for vides capacity for up to 11 more seats
100 more, anticipates taking deliv- than the standard configuration of the
ery of the MAX 200 from 2019 to 2023. 737-8, though Ryanair’s configuration
An extra exit boosts Boeing “This is the aircraft we have been will be based on eight additional seats.
737-8 seating capacity to waiting 10 years for now,” says CEO Added cabin capacity will be generated
200. Michael O’Leary. “It marks a step by removing elements of the front and
change in Ryanair’s efficiency and, aft galley and installing slimline seating.
given we are already the most efficient Although trip costs will take a slight hit
BOEING CONCEPT

seat A321neo takes Airbus into a new airline in Europe by a considerable dis- of around 1% compared to the standard
niche where Boeing cannot follow. tance, it may hasten an era of a new 737-8, the MAX 200 “will have 5% better
Or can it? While recent attention price war in Europe which, like other operating costs,” says Boeing. c
has been focused on the launch of the
MAX 200 and the go-ahead of the larger
A321neo, Boeing has quietly developed
a higher-capacity version of the 737-
900ER which could provide a jumping-
off point for future growth options for
Jumbos Bow Out
the similarly-sized 737-9. The devel-
opment will enable operators to take
Boeing 747s face shrinking role
advantage of the full 220-seat capacity on transpacific routes
to which the aircraft is officially exit-
limited, and adds five additional seats Adrian Schofield Auckland Madhu Unnikrishnan San Francisco
to the current highest density, single- and Sean Broderick Washington
class offering.
“The 220-seat count for the 900ER he long reign of the Boeing 747- has recently been accelerating. At least
requires activation of a mid-cabin
exit door,” says Boeing. “A revision
to reinforce the floor beams to allow
T 400 on intercontinental routes is
coming to an end, and nowhere
is this more apparent than on trans-
three airlines—Cathay Pacific Airways,
Philippine Airlines and Air New Zea-
land—have retired the last of their pas-
activation of the mid-cabin exit door pacific flights. While Delta Air Lines senger 747s during the past few weeks.
was certified in July 2014,” it adds. is culling 747s from its Asian routes as Delta is planning to retire three of
The development, which is scheduled part of a network overhaul, other car- its 16 747s by the end of this month,
for first delivery to UT Air at the end riers around the Pacific Rim are phas- with a fourth to be parked. The cuts al-
of the year, can potentially “roll to ing out the aircraft entirely. low it to “down-gauge” routes between
the MAX,” says Boeing business op- The 747 is steadily being pushed out North American and Asian cities to
erations director, Elizabeth Schryer. of long-haul passenger fleets in favor of smaller widebodies such as Boeing
Commenting recently on 737 develop- newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft. The 777s, and the move is also linked to a
ments, Schryer says: “On the -900ER trend has been evident for years, but broader rethink of its Asian strategy.

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 21


COMMERCIAL PROGRAMS

“The 747 is a tough airplane [to op- from its growing transpacific gate- Air New Zealand, meanwhile, flew
erate], with its four engines and its way at Seattle-Tacoma International its last 747 flight on Sept. 10, on its San
large gauge,” Delta Chief Financial Of- Airport. “We will leverage the Seattle Francisco-Auckland route. The carrier
ficer Paul Jacobson told investors at a gateway, but with more efficient air- at one time had eight 747-400s, but had
recent Cowen & Co. conference. The craft than the 747,” Jacobson says. more recently reduced the fleet to two
carrier gained the 747s after its merger Delta currently operates 10 daily wide- aircraft. The second-to-last 747 exited
with Northwest Airlines in 2009. body flights to Asia from Seattle. Using the fleet in July. Air New Zealand now
The introduction of smaller aircraft this airport allows the carrier to fly to flies 777-300ERs in its North American
will allow Delta to reduce capacity on more nonstop destinations in Asia with markets.
its Japanese network while still main- smaller aircraft, including the Boeing Some carriers will continue to use
taining frequencies. Flights from At- 767, than is possible from most other 747s on transpacific routes. While Qan-
lanta and Los Angeles to Tokyo Narita parts of the West Coast. tas is accelerating retirement of its old-
Airport will be downgauged from 747s Many international airlines have er 747s, it will still be using this model
to 777s around the end of September, already phased out the 747 from their on flights to the U.S. “for the foreseeable
and the same swap will occur on its passenger fleets, including the two ma- future,” an airline spokesman says.
New York John F. Kennedy Interna- jor Japanese carriers. Japan Airlines Qantas currently operates 13 747s,
tional -Narita route in late October. retired its remaining 747 fleet in 2011 and has plans to phase out four by early
Airbus A330s will also replace 747s on as part of its cost-cutting and restruc- 2016 as part of a broader cost-cutting
flights from Detroit to Nagoya toward turing effort, and All Nippon Airways program. The carrier says the remain-

Delta Air Lines is cutting four Boeing 747-400s


from its Pacific operation.

JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET
the end of next month. phased out its last 747—used on domes- der are “mid-life” aircraft that have
Delta’s strategy is to shift its Asian tic routes—in March. been refurbished with the same cabin
route network away from its depen- Other carriers are following suit. Ca- product as its Airbus A380 fleet. The
dence on “fifth-freedom” flights—the thay Pacific operated the final flight of older aircraft being retired are primar-
right of an international airline to its sole remaining 747-400 on Aug. 31, ily serving Asian destinations.
pick up and deliver at intermediate on its San Francisco-Hong Kong route. Unlike its rival Delta, United Air-
points along a route—beyond its hub All of the flights on the carrier’s seven lines does not plan to retire any of
at Narita, which it inherited from North American routes are now oper- its 23 747s this year. However, it has
Northwest. As part of this plan, Delta ated by Boeing 777-300ERs. Cathay been shuffling the aircraft around its
will cut back on flights from Narita to does have new 747-8 freighters in its network. The carrier primarily based
beach destinations in Asia by 17% and cargo fleet. the 747s in San Francisco for sched-
pare its intra-Asia schedule by 10%, Philippine Airlines (PAL) retired its uling purposes while it worked on the
Jacobson says. last 747-400 on Sept. 1. The carrier had aircraft to improve their maintenance
The Narita fifth-freedom hub, once a been using them for its flights to Los reliability. After the conclusion of these
prize fought over by U.S. carriers, has Angeles and San Francisco, and due efforts earlier this year, it deployed the
lost its luster recently as the Japanese to the FAA’s downgrade of Philippine’s 747s back onto routes such as Chicago
economy has cooled, and as changes in safety rating it could not change aircraft to Shanghai, Tokyo and Frankfurt.
aircraft technology make it possible to type on these routes. The FAA restored In a strategy similar to Delta’s,
fly nonstop to most points in Asia di- the safety rating in April, enabling PAL United executives say the airline is “re-
rectly from the U.S. However, the To- to begin phasing out its 747s in May. structuring our Asia flying to leverage
kyo catchment area remains one of the The carrier has replaced the 747s our West Coast hubs,” meaning more
world’s largest—and most affluent— on these routes with 777-300ERs. It direct flights from the West Coast to
population centers, so its value as an expects to save as much as $120 mil- secondary Asian markets. It has re-
origin and destination market remains lion a year in fuel and maintenance by cently introduced routes from San
undiminished. using the 777s instead of 747s on its 18 Francisco to Taipei and Chengdu, us-
Instead, Delta will build its network weekly flights to the U.S. ing 787s and 777-200s, respectively. c

22 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


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COMMERCIAL PROGRAMS

Robust Robots cesses are better able to cope with


changes in production rate, he em-
phasizes. For a manual process, a ris-
Looking to the 777X, MHI is working ing rate demands the training of more
workers, heightening the risk that new
to cut production risks hands will make mistakes; for an auto-
mated process, a faster rate demands
Bradley Perrett Tokyo more machines, which should perform
exactly like those already installed.
anufacturing ramp-ups can Tatsumi, repeatedly uses the words MHI says it has developed most of

M be tricky, as the global com-


mercial-aircraft industry well
remembers from the great Boeing pro-
“stability” and “robust production.”
The company’s changes may also bring
savings, Tatsumi says, but he suggests
the automation technology it is apply-
ing to 777 production and is proposing
to use on the 777X. It has had to im-
duction foul-up of 1997. After trying to that economies in labor costs, for ex- prove measurement of what robots are
increase its delivery rates far faster ample, would be merely incidental. doing and the processes for precisely
than suppliers could handle, the manu- Japanese suppliers have an agree- controlling them.
facturer had to take the drastic steps ment with Boeing that anticipates them Honing robots to perform more tasks
of halting the 737 assembly line and building 777X parts that correspond to required a great deal of simulation to
suspending 747 production altogether. those they have been making for earlier understand the fine details of, for ex-
Seventeen years later, Boeing has 777s. In the case of MHI, the assemblies ample, drilling; the process changes
booked orders for 286 units of the are the curved panels that form the aft subtly in various conditions and as the
drill wears. A manual driller can see or
feel changes in the performance of a
MHI’s Hiroshima site tool; for an automatic process this must
completes fuselage as- be simulated and predicted.
semblies for the 777 and Even if, as seems likely, increased ro-
is taking over detail part botic fabrication will cut MHI’s costs
manufacturing as well. when its equipment is fully employed,
the strategy clearly raises economic
risks in the event of a production
slowdown. Unlike people, machinery
cannot easily be reassigned to other
work. Most likely, shifts would be re-
duced and the robots would spend
their evenings idle. Even if some could
be used on other jobs, the most special-
ized machines certainly could not be.
But Tatsumi says: “If we encounter a
production mess, it will cost a lot. We
need to avoid disruption.”
Besides, Japanese companies, with
their low cost of capital, must have
less to fear from idle equipment than
do competitors in other countries. And
for the Japanese, a secondary advan-
tage is that automation helps address
MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES the slow decline in availability of tech-
new 777X in 10 months; it must want fuselage, and the tail cone and doors. nicians caused by the aging of their
to ramp up as quickly as possible to at The company has begun preparing for country’s population.
least the current, historically fast pro- the work before signing a definitive con- Boeing, whose production processes
duction rate of the 777-300ER, 8.3 a tract. Boeing plans to begin final assem- are traditionally more labor intensive
month. As it does so, Mitsubishi Heavy bly of the first 777-9X in 2017, with the than those of its Japanese suppliers, is
Industries (MHI), very likely to be a aim of certifying the type in late 2019 also introducing more automation into
major supplier, is determined that it and making the first delivery in 2020. final assembly for the 777X (AW&ST
will not be responsible for sending the MHI has increased automation in its July 21, p. 47).
program off course. 777 program since production began In another move to cut risk, MHI
The Japanese manufacturer is im- more than 20 years ago. For its next plans to integrate inspection with
plementing and planning a range of step, it plans to widen its use of auto- manufacturing. Instead of building an
new measures for the 777, especially matic drilling and riveting, because assembly and then inspecting it, as is
increased automation. In almost ev- robotic fabrication results in far few- normally done, the company aims to
ery case, the main aim is to minimize er mistakes and therefore less rework introduce technology that inspects
risk. Discussing the changes, the head and delay, says Tatsumi. as each hole is drilled and each rivet
of MHI’s Boeing program, Shigefumi More particularly, automated pro- is driven into place. Again, Tatsumi

24 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


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says there may be a direct saving in machine is likely, it can schedule pro- to Hiroshima is cheaper than shipping
cost, but the main aim is to avoid hold- duction and maintenance to avoid the completed parts there from Nagoya.
ups; such a method will minimize the occurrence. In another refinement, au- Over the past year or so, MHI has
chance that a batch of parts is made tomatic production scheduling may be been reorganizing its supplier arrange-
and later discovered to be faulty. more efficient than traditional manual ments. Previously, it contracted suppli-
Boeing’s changes in the design of the methods of dealing with unexpected ers to perform work on parts succes-
777X from the 777 will also require new problems, such as the discovery that sively. In a typical case, it might send
methods, but MHI declines to discuss a batch of parts needs reworking. raw materials to one supplier and
this. It is also tight-lipped on possible Minimizing risk was the main reason then receive and inspect the resulting
further refinements to its production for the company’s decision, now being product. Then the part would be sent
processes, although Tatsumi says it has implemented, to consolidate 777 and to another supplier for more work, re-
ideas. And it will not disclose the scale 767 production at Hiroshima. MHI’s ceived and inspected again, then sent
of its proposed investment for the 777X. Nagoya works has been making string- to a third supplier, and so on.
The company would like to set up a ers and frames for the fuselage panels Now the company is adopting the hi-
design-build team for its parts of the that are assembled in Hiroshima, but erarchy of suppliers that is more com-
aircraft. Production engineers would the latter plant is now taking over the mon in the global industry: As a first-
go to the U.S. and work alongside Boe- detail manufacturing, including surface tier supplier, it contracts a second-tier
ing design engineers, with the objec- treatment and painting, which has re- supplier for the final part it needs; that
tive of refining the detail design of the cently been further automated. supplier contracts third-tier compa-
aircraft for efficient production. Tatsumi says production can be nies for its inputs. This saves the cost
At the moment, Tatsumi and his more closely coordinated if it is all of unnecessary transportation and in-
team are intensely studying produc- done on one site, and there is less spection by MHI. The change has been
tion health monitoring. If the compa- risk of disruption by, for example, a applied across the civil aeronautics
ny can predict when a breakdown of a typhoon. Also, sending raw materials business and will benefit 777X costs. c

Uphill Struggle
Graham Warwick Washington

ombardier has resumed flight

B tests of the CSeries airliner after


a hiatus of more than
100 days following an engine
failure during ground test-
ing, but an analyst is warning
that the already-delayed entry-
into-service date may have to be
pushed back again.
Test aircraft FTV2 returned
to flight on Sept. 7 after being fit-
ted with the first Pratt & Whitney
PW1500G geared turbofans to be
redelivered with a modified oil lubri-
cation system. FTV4 will follow, then
FTV1 and FTV3, with the final CS100 for the CSeries to a peak of just 64 air-
BOMBARDIER

test aircraft, FTV5, expected to make craft in 2019, arguing the backlog of 203
its first flight by year-end. firm orders does not support company
FTV1’s carbon-fiber wing was dam- mode. All preceding flights have been plans to build 120 a year.
aged by the uncontained failure of the in back-up direct mode. Normal mode Noting that 75% of the narrowbody
low-pressure turbine, but repairs are introduces envelope protection. market for the next 10 years is already in
almost complete, says Rob Dewar, vice Bombardier still expects the initial competitors’ backlogs, Scotiabank sees
president and general manager for 110-seat CS100 to enter service in the Bombardier struggling to secure even
CSeries. There were no related sys- second half of 2015 but, with nearly 2,100 the 20% of remaining orders needed to
tem failures during the incident and of the 2,400 flight-test hours required meet the analyst’s revised forecast.
the fuselage was undamaged, he adds. for certification still ahead, Scotiabank Other Canadian analysis firms such
The test aircraft were upgraded analyst Turan Quettawala is predicting as Canaccord Genuity are less severe,
while grounded, and FTV2 (photo) is third-quarter 2016 is more likely. predicting that the service-entry target
expected to soon begin flying with, for In a research note that savages Bom- can be met and that additional firm or-
the first time, the CSeries’ digital fly- bardier’s projections, Quettawala also ders will be signed now that the CSeries
by-wire control system in its normal reduces Scotiabank’s delivery forecast flight-testing regime has resumed. c

26 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


SPACE

Risk
Reduction
RD-180 prototype replacement
could be ready to test in 2.5 years
Frank Morring, Jr. and Amy Butler Washington

ocket-engine developments that evolved from prepa-

R rations for an advanced strap-on booster to lift the


largest version of the planned Space Launch System
(SLS) could push a prototype 500,000-lb.-thrust U.S. re-
placement for Russia’s RD-180 to the test stand in 2.5 years,
contractors say.
Dynetics and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJR) have joined forces The single-bell AR-1
on risk-reduction work growing out of NASA’s SLS advanced kerosene-fueled engine
booster program and the Air Force Research Laboratory would generate 500,000
(AFRL) Hydrocarbon Boost effort. The goal is to hasten the lb. thrust and could be
AR-1 hydrocarbon-fueled rocket engine being proposed by twinned for twice the
AJR in hopes that Congress and the Pentagon will decide to capacity.
go all-out on a U.S. powerplant for national security space
launch in place of the RD-180.
Congressional defense committees have indicated a will-
ingness to begin funding development of a large hydrocar-
bon rocket, given uncertainty over long-term availability of
the RD-180 in the sanctions war over Russian ambitions in
Ukraine. The Air Force is polling industry on options for a
replacement engine, and the Dynetics/AJR work—so far only
with NASA funding—is providing some of the answers.
“We think a risk-reduction program preceding full-scale AEROJET ROCKETDYNE CONCEPT
development is the way to go to get you the fastest route to “Risk reduction has real, tangible benefits and will save
a real engine for the lowest cost,” says Steve Cook, a former us years in schedule,” says Cook, who was project manager
top-level NASA rocket propulsion engineering manager at on the Ares launch-vehicle development that was paced by
Marshall Space Flight Center who has been director of cor- the J-2X upper-stage engine development. “Our estimate is
porate development at Dynetics for the past five years. 2-3 years off schedule and several hundred million dollars in
To that end, Dynetics and AJR have merged their work for cost, because if you get those key risk areas knocked down
NASA and the Air Force in hydrocarbon rocket technology. to a reasonable level, and you understand the affordability
The new technologies could remove some of the uncertainty equation, when you make your full-scale development de-
that would go into replacing the 860,000-lb.-thrust RD-180 cision, you’ve got a lot more data, so you’re a lot smarter.
manufactured in Russia by NPO Energomash with the pro- And when you get going on full-scale acquisition, you’re not
posed AR-1 (see artist’s concept), a 500,000-lb.-thrust oxidiz- trying to understand the technology challenges.”
er-rich, staged-combustion engine that could be twinned for Scott Seymour, president and CEO of AJR parent Gen-
vehicles requiring more thrust. Corp, says the rocket-engine company is targeting a full-
That would include the United Launch Alliance Atlas V, production cost of $20-25 million for each two-engine shipset
currently the launch vehicle of choice for high-value U.S. na- of AR-1s, with a development cost of $800 million to $1 billion
tional security payloads and potentially the next U.S. human over four years after a contract award (AW&ST June 12,
launch vehicle as well. As the U.S. and its allies spar with p. 33). Technologies developed in the risk-reduction work
Russia over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, support for a by Dynetics and AJR include additive manufacturing (AM)
long-discussed but never-funded U.S. alternative to the RD- of injectors and other engine elements, new alloys and new
180 has been growing (AW&ST May 26, p. 22). nozzle technology.
Cook says advance risk-reduction work enabled a tenfold Materials engineers at AJR have developed a set of al-
reduction in the time it took for the J-2X engine to reach 100% loys they have trademarked as “Mondaloy” that combines
power in hot-fire testing compared to the RS-68. The J-2X high strength with resistance to burning, making them
reached full power 29 days after testing started, he says. In the particularly useful in the oxygen-rich, high-pressure envi-
late 1990s, it took the RS-68 320 days to reach the milestone. ronments that would be found inside the AR-1 and other
oxidizer-rich, staged-combustion rockets. The alloys offer
Check 6 Aviation Week editors discuss the prototype cost and reliability advantages over the coatings used to
that could replace the RD-180 engine in the latest Check 6. protect components inside the RD-180, also an oxidizer-
AviationWeek.com/podcast rich, staged-combustion engine, according to Paul Meyer,

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 27


SPACE

senior vice president for advanced programs and business to begin a new-engine development as early as fiscal 2016.
development at AJR. Based on its request for information issued Aug. 20, which
“We’ve been characterizing the application of Mondaloy in- includes a question about a “shared-investment path” that
side that thrust chamber itself,” Meyer says. “We don’t have would require industry to help foot the development bill,
the normal erosion associated with that oxygen-rich environ- the Air Force has scheduled an “initial industry day” at its
ment. It gives us some reliability. It gives us endurance capabil- Space and Missile Systems Center in Los Angeles Sept. 25-
ity, and it also allows us to reduce some weight. It also helps 26. There, company representatives can meet one-on-one
us from a manufacturing perspective.” with government contracting specialists to present their
AM is also playing into the risk-reduction work by the two ideas. Top-level briefings to Defense Department civilians
companies. Dynetics and AJR predecessor Pratt & Whitney are tentatively scheduled for late next month, and the House
Rocketdyne used NASA funding under the $37 million Ad- Armed Services Committee has authorized the transfer of
vanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and Risk Reduc- $26.8 million to keep the process moving despite concern
tion (Abedrr) project to study what it would take to resurrect over “the lack of clarity in an acquisition strategy moving
the F-1 Saturn V main engine for the strap-on boosters intend- forward.”
ed to bring the SLS to the 130-metric-ton capacity mandated Dynetics and AJR, which combined their NASA and Air
by Congress (AW&ST Jan. 21, 2013, p. 20). Force risk-reduction contracts last year with Dynetics as the
While NASA shelved that effort—at least temporarily—in prime contractor under the NASA-funded effort, will present
favor of developing a new upper stage for a 105-ton version of the resulting findings as a team, Meyer says.
the heavy-lift rocket, Dynetics conducted gas-generator hot- “We have looked at taking the combination of the two [risk-
fire tests (see photo) and worked with AJR to build engine reduction efforts] and using the testing that will occur in the
components, including an F-1 injector, using AM. Abedrr program and lining that up with our Hydrocarbon
“We built and we’re getting ready to test an additive- Boost [Air Force Research Laboratory] contract,” he says. “So
manufactured rocket engine injector at the 30,000-lb. class,” we’ve offered the Air Force, as a team, how we could maximize
says Cook. “The injector itself is the 30,000-lb.-thrust class. that government investment to date, that industry investment

A gas generator test was conducted at Marshall Space Flight Center as part of risk-reduction
work underway for the advanced hydrocarbon rocket engine that could replace Russia’s RD-180.

NASA

Typically, that would have taken 15 months to build. We did to date, into a plan that would provide the least amount of risk
it in 15 days.” to a 2019 engine.”
The work is continuing at AJR under a separate Air Force The two companies believe a prototype AR-1 could be a
cost-sharing contract that the company is using to build and fast-track route to replacing the RD-180, given a decision to
test engine parts made from various materials with large- begin development. With the work they have already done,
scale laser-melting AM (AW&ST Aug. 25, p. 12). Cook says, the engineering path ahead is clear.
“The role model we have is the RL-10, and the RL-10 [pro- “If you look at the major risks that we’ve got to go knock
gram] is actually building space-qualified hardware right now down in order to bring a new RD-180 engine replacement into
and delivering that hardware for the fundamental testing play, the biggest risk is main combustion stability,” he says. The
that will go into hot-fire tests in the first quarter of 2017,” says plan would build on component level work in moving up to the
AJR’s Meyer. “So it’s the pathfinder for what we want to do subsystem level, focusing on ensuring combustion stability in
on AR-1. We’ve already qualified Inconel 65; we’re finishing the concept, building a full-scale main injector and testing it
qualification in titanium, and we’re expanding our capacity— to “make sure it works like we want it to,” Cook says.
although not necessarily for AR-1—into copper.” With an injector in hand, the next step would be the tur-
Use of designs from the RL-10—a hydrogen-fueled, upper- bomachinery. “We’ve got to have high-performance turboma-
stage engine that dates to the early 1960s but is still in use chinery,” he says. “It’s staged-combustion, oxygen-rich, so we
today—as well as the F-1 and the Saturn V J-2 upper-stage have to deal with the oxygen compatibility issues. We have
engine that formed the basis for the J-2X illustrates how the to deal with integrating that turbomachinery in the right-
two companies are taking advantage of heritage technology sized package, and then putting that together in a powerpack
to hasten development of the AR-1. So far, the saber-rattling demonstration where you bring those key pieces together and
along the Ukrainian-Russian border has not had an appre- do a demonstration. We believe we can get to that prototype
ciable effect on the supply of RD-180 engines for the Atlas V state in about 2.5 years if a decision is made to go full out,
(see page 30), but the Air Force is moving to position itself and get a prototype engine as soon as possible.” c

28 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


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SPACE

lated to the European variant of Rus-


sia’s Soyuz or the Ukrainian-built up-
per stage of the Italian-led Vega light
launcher, both of which deploy from
Arianespace facilities at the Guiana
Space Center in Kourou.
“The Vega upper stage is made in
Ukraine. We’ve had no issues there,”
Israel said, adding that upcoming
launches of satellites on Soyuz, includ-
ing the next pair of Galileo spacecraft
to be orbited in December for the Eu-
ropean Commission and a new tranche
Satellite manufacturer Thales of O3b communications satellites have
Alenia Space found a European already been cleared.
supplier able to replace U.S. parts Sergey Gugkaev, CEO of Nyon,
on Russia’s Yamal-601. Switzerland-based Sea Launch, says
tensions between Russia and Ukraine
have the Russian-owned company
THALES ALENIA SPACE CONCEPT
“closely watching what is going on,
because we have production sites in

What War? both countries.”


So far, however, Gugkaev says Sea
Launch has had no problem shipping
Space industry sees little impact hardware from Ukraine and Russia in
preparation for launches of the Rus-
from U.S., European tensions with Moscow sian-Ukrainian Zenit-3SL from the
company’s ocean-based platform. He
Amy Svitak Paris cites a May 26 mission that lifted an
Airbus-built communications satellite
s Western powers weigh further In the meantime, other launch ser- to geosynchronous orbit for Paris-

A support for Kiev in the battle


against pro-Russian separat-
ists in Ukraine, global space industry
vice providers who utilize Russian
and Ukrainian hardware say worsen-
ing tensions are not yet being felt at
based fleet operator Eutelsat.
“In May we had the Eutelsat E3B
mission, so we haven’t been affected by
leaders say the mounting tensions with industry level. that,” Gugkaev says. “Moreover, [ear-
Moscow have so far had minimal over- Phil Slack, president of Interna- lier in the month] there was a decree
all affect. tional Launch Services (ILS), which by the Ukrainian president forbidding
Robert Cleave, president of Lock- markets commercial missions of Rus- any cooperation on the military side
heed Martin Commercial Launch sia’s Proton, says the Reston, Virgin- between Ukraine and Russian forces,
Services, says Atlas 5-supplier United ia-based company was initially con- except the commercial space pro-
Launch Alliance (ULA) has seen no cerned that a State Department hold grams, so there is such an exclusion.
slowdown in deliveries of the Russian on spacecraft shipping licenses could For the time being, we are not affected
RD-180 engine that powers the rocket’s disrupt the ILS manifest. by these tensions.”
core stage. “From a licensing standpoint, when However, at least one Western satel-
“We have no indications one way or the tension started, the State Depart- lite manufacturer has shifted gears in
another of a husbanding of the RD-180 ment did put a hold on licenses,” Slack response to frayed U.S.-Russian rela-
engines,” Cleave said Sept. 9 during said Sept. 9. “They were not denying tions. Thales Alenia Space of France
the World Satellite Business Week con- them, just not processing them until and Italy, which uses some U.S. com-
ference here. “ULA [has] a robust sup- they got further guidance. That was ponents in its commercial communica-
ply chain—a global supply chain—and resolved fairly quickly, and licenses tions satellite bus, said it felt compelled
it is something they actively manage. are getting approved.” to find a European supplier for parts
There are a couple of years of supply In addition, Slack said the U.S. De- on the Yamal-601 satellite it is build-
here, with two engines delivered last fense Technology Security Agency ing for Russian fleet operator Gazprom
month and more coming before the (DTSA) continues to monitor the com- Space Systems, owing to a State De-
end of the year.” pany’s technical activities. partment ban on some technology ex-
Although Moscow has yet to cut “They were in Moscow today (Sept. ports to Russia that was issued earlier
off supply of the NPO Energomash 9), in fact, watching technical activities this year.
engines, lawmakers in Washington going on, and we’re seeing no impact,” “There have been some new rules
are pressing the case for ending U.S. he said. concerning U.S. export regulations to-
reliance on Russia by either initiating Stephane Israel, chairman and CEO ward Russia,” Thales Alenia Space CEO
a domestic RD-180 production line or of European launch service provider Jean-Loic Galle said Sept. 9. “It was not
replacing the engine with a domesti- Arianespace, says the company has clear, I have to say, but we prefer to be
cally sourced one (see page 27). had no delivery or licensing issues re- cautious and to anticipate risks.” c

30 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY

International
Linking Technology, Programs and Policy Across Defense

NAVAL OPERATIONS

Pacific
Intent
China’s Navy Joins
Rimpac Exercise
Page DT10

U.S. COAST GUARD

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November 4-6, 2014
FEATURES
DTI5 Attacks Audit
SingEx Exhibition and Convention Center
Combat data detail the scope Singapore
of Israel’s war with Hamas

DTI10 China Pivot


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ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES PHOTOS
ASYMMETRIC WARFARE

Bottom Line
Conflict tally highlights intensity
of Israeli action in Gaza
The IDF destroyed attack tunnels
David Eshel Tel Aviv created by Hamas for penetration
into Israel.
peration Protective Edge was launched by Israel July 8,

O after months of rocket fire from Gaza that imperiled mil-


lions of Israeli citizens. The campaign was waged in urban
areas and affected 7.3 million people overall.
civilian casualties was a major con-
cern for Israeli planners, and Hamas
exploited these self-imposed restric-
tions by using human shields to try to
thwart Israeli attacks.
The conflict effectively ended on groups fired 4,564 rockets from Gaza Sixty-seven Israeli soldiers and six
Aug. 26. Israel did not achieve a de- at Israel, targeting 70% of the country’s civilians were killed during the opera-
cisive defeat of Hamas in terms of 5.5 million people. Israel’s new counter- tion; 469 soldiers and 80 civilians were
eliminating its ability to continue at- rocket, artillery and mortar (C-RAM) wounded. Israel mobilized 80,000 sol-
tacks, but effectively ended most of the defense, Iron Dome, intercepted 735 diers, although most forces in the land
threat. Hamas, despite its hollow claim rockets that were on target to strike campaign were regular units.
of victory, is responsible for initiating populated areas. Iron Dome achieved Palestinian sources report more than
the destruction of large areas of Gaza an intercept rate of 90%. 2,000 Gazans killed, of which 500 are
and at least 2,000 Palestinian deaths. In avoiding the probable heavy ca- listed as combatants. Israeli sources ac-
In this report we examine Opera- sualties that would have ensued with- cept the casualty figure but claim the
tion Protective Edge by the numbers, out Iron Dome, the defensive system number of combatants killed was clos-
and in the process provide a look at allowed Israel to delay and moderate er to 1,000. The Palestinians say more
the ferocity of the conflict, which many retaliation, but also prolonged the con- than 11,000 people were wounded, and
believe is an example of warfare in the flict, which ended without a decisive 485,000 displaced from their homes.
21st century—asymmetric battles result. The Palestinians mustered more
fought in densely populated areas that In the Gaza Strip, 1.8 million Pales- than 25,000 combatants, most not in
require innovative technologies and tinians were in the line of fire, dodging uniform. The Israel Defense Forces
tactics to achieve objectives. Hamas mortars and rockets that fell (IDF) targeted 5,085 terror sites in
Throughout the operation Hamas, short, as well as Israel’s retaliatory Gaza, 1,814 of which were rocket sites.
Islamic Jihad and affiliated terror attacks against launch sites. Avoiding The air force carried out 840 strikes

Israeli troops leave Gaza after fighting to eliminate


the threat of rocket attacks by Hamas.

AviationWeek.com/defense AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 DTI5
ASYMMETRIC WARFARE

The IDF’s 401st Armored Brigade provided support


in support of ground forces, 109 on for land forces. Armor upgrades and the Trophy APS
weapons depots and 85 against weap- protected the vehicles from rocket attacks.
on-making facilities. Israel claimed
its forces destroyed 312 buildings and
houses belonging to people involved in
terrorism, and 192 attacks were direct-
ed at Hamas military training sites.
The Israeli army says 3,659 rocket
and mortar impact sites were found,
including those fired on by IDF sol-
diers in Gaza. Of those that struck
Israel, 224 hit built-up areas, and Iron
Dome intercepted 735.
During the last confrontation with
Hamas, in 2012, the Palestinians fired
few rockets beyond a 40-km (25-mi.)
range, which hit targets south of Tel
Aviv. This time, Israel and Hamas were
prepared for long-range engagements.
ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES
Hamas fired 287 long- and medium-
range rockets, almost all reportedly large targets such as cities, Hamas tacks from different weapons, some at
made in Gaza: the R160 (160 km), J80 opted to launch all six simultaneously. close range, also played a part.
(80 km), M75 (75 km) and S55 (55 km). A similar effect was achieved with Militants also fielded sniper rifles.
According to Palestinian sources, 122-mm GRAD rockets. Multibarrel The most common were 7.62-cal. rifles
only five Iranian Fajr 5 rockets were launchers fired rockets simultaneously, of Iranian and Austrian origin. The
fired. In contrast, 3,334 of the short- in salvos of 24 or 48. These were meant Ghul, claimed by Hamas to be locally
range rockets and mortar bombs fired to overwhelm Iron Dome defenses, but made, is actually an Iranian Sayed-2,
were standard weapons. Some were the C-RAM met the challenge. Iron a copy of the Austrian Steyr HS.50, a
locally made Qassam rockets, but Dome is designed to stop only rock- 50-cal. rifle. Hamas cites its range as
most were the more lethal military- ets that pose an immediate threat to 2 km, but the effective range is really
standard GRAD multiple-launch type. people and property. Hence, although 1.6 km, which is still twice that of the
These rockets combine the devastat- Israel deployed just nine Iron Dome Iranian-made Nakhjir 3 rifle (based on
ing blast and fragmentation effect that batteries, the damage caused by at- the Russian Dragunov), which was also
most long-range weapons lack, due to tacks was minimal and casualties low. deployed.
the trade-off between propellant and Israel’s nationwide alert system also Such weapons were meant to ex-
warhead for range. played a prominent role in protecting tend firing beyond the range the IDF
While only 5% of the weapons fired civilians, along with indoor fortifica- considers “sterile” for force protection.
were long-range, the fear they created tions in many apartments. The Ghul was employed for long-range,
went far beyond the minor damage The Palestinians claim to have fired anti-materiel sniping. Its success rate
they caused. Favored target sites were 3,621 RPGs (rocket-propelled gre- is unknown.
Israeli (and Arab) population centers nades) and guided missiles. Among Hamas deployed the AT-14, along
in Tel Aviv, Haifa and Jerusalem, as weapons locally produced in Gaza with 107-mm rockets fired in direct
well as high-profile infrastructure such are semi-standard improvised explo- attacks, in efforts to hit Israeli patrol
as the electrical power plant in Ash- sive devices, including large-diameter boats operating off Gaza. These boats
kelon, military bases and the nuclear roadside bombs, high-caliber sniper were armed with Spike ER guided
research center in Dimona. All these rifles and some types of mortar bombs. missiles to strike targets in Gaza with
attacks failed, however. Hamas has gained access to guided precision.
Iranian support of Hamas in recent anti-tank missiles, including advanced Hamas made considerable invest-
years included weapons, training and tandem RPGs, Russian-built 9M133 ments in command-and-control capa-
weapos-making infrastructure. The Kornets (also known as the AT-14) and bilities before the conflict. The network
extensive acquisition of weapons by Iranian-made 9M113 Konkurs (known of tunnels beneath the Gaza Strip, for
Hamas reached a climax during the as the AT-5 and also based on a Russian example, carried wire-line communica-
one-year (2013) rule in Egypt of the design). Unlike the relative success of tion systems that were separate from
Muslim Brotherhood led by Mohamed such weapons in the 2006 Second Leb- local cellular and telecommunications
Morsi. During that time, Hamas stock- anon War, where AT-14s and tandem networks, which are easily monitored
piled weapons and rocket materials. RPGs defeated many Merkava tanks, by Israeli intelligence. The tunnel infra-
Hamas focused its rocket-building most attacks failed during Operation structure enabled terror leaders to con-
efforts on extending range and salvo- Protective Edge. This was the result trol their war-fighting assets, orches-
firing capability. Its most common of armor upgrades on tanks and the trate rocket attacks on Israeli targets
long-range rocket, the M75, was de- Achzarit and Namer armored infan- and maintain a daily barrage. Hamas
ployed during the conflict in multiple try fighting vehicles. Vehicle-mounted also turned apartments and offices in
launchers each carrying six rockets. Trophy APS (active protection system), high rises into observation posts.
As the weapons were often aimed at which countered at least 10 direct at- Via this network, Hamas leaders

DTI6 SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL AviationWeek.com/defense
A new era of military transport has begun.
Stronger and faster.

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ASYMMETRIC WARFARE
An Israeli patrol boat fires a Spike ER
missile at a shore target in Gaza.
went underground at the beginning
of the operation and effectively disap-
peared from Israeli intelligence. They
reemerged only during the final stages
of the operation, after targeted killings
by the IDF eliminated some top lead-
ers of the organization.
While this network was effective
against aerial surveillance, it did not
enable Hamas to effectively engage
Israeli land forces in eastern Gaza.
These operations encountered spo-
radic, often ineffective local initiatives
by small groups who would suddenly
ISRAEL DEFENSE FORCES
emerge from caves or fortified cellars
but posed no significant threat. points. One tunnel housed three mo- IDF on July 8 was meant to eliminate
Of the thousands of tunnels dug in torbikes, which militants apparently this threat. During one 17-day period,
Gaza over the years, a few were de- planned to use to quickly egress the the IDF destroyed 32 tunnels, 14 of
signed as “attack tunnels.” Militants tunnel once across the border fence, which had cross-border exits.
planned to use these to penetrate Is- thus extending their reach beyond The underground network also pro-
rael to initiate attacks, including kid- walking distance. Hamas managed to vided transportation, accommodation
nappings, on civilians and soldiers. launch four attacks from attack tun- and storage facilities for militants, as
The attack tunnels that were detect- nels during the conflict, two of which well as protected firing positions for
ed and destroyed by IDF combat engi- killed a total of nine IDF soldiers. All rocket launchers and mortars. Storing
neers were hardened with concrete, fit- other attacks were repelled with heavy these in covered pits—some linked to
ted with storage and assembly spaces, losses to the Palestinians. tunnels—meant militants could keep
and linked to multiple entry and exit The land campaign launched by the them undetected and ready for launch.
With mortar positions, teams would
aim the weapon under cover, open a
protective lid, fire a few rounds in
quick succession, and button up again
to avoid detection. This technique
November 19-20, 2014 kept the mortar position hidden from
Wigwam Resort IDF detection, as the firing cycle was
Litchfield Park, AZ shorter than the IDF reaction time. A
similar effect was obtained by firing
The 2014 Aviation Week Program Excellence Awards short-range rockets in direct attacks,
minimizing the exposure of their bal-
bring together program executives, their customer listic trajectories to C-RAM sensors.
counterparts, and leaders from across the industry Israel’s ability to detect and counter
in a gala event designed to recognize the best in mortar fire, however, was again proven
performance and leadership. Hear this year’s insufficient. Despite the fact that Is-
rael deployed its most sophisticated
nominees share lessons learned throughout the fire-detection and alerting radars all
conference. around Gaza, the warning time given
to forward-deployed forces and civil-
Reserve your space and meet the winners. ians was too short. While the radar
Register today for the Program Excellence Awards itself provided warnings in time to en-
able people to take cover, its integration
Cocktail Reception and Banquet on Thursday,
into the national alerting network often
November 20! delayed warnings that were delivered to
PROGRAM EXCELLENCE SPONSORS settlements near the Gaza border.
One lesson learned from this opera-
tion is to deploy more effective tacti-
cal C-RAM radars to protect forward-
deployed military units and civilians in
the few close-border locations where
such assets are important.
Next month, DTI will assess some of
the latest technologies, operational con-
cepts and organizational trends imple-
Reserve your seat now! www.aviationweek.com/events/adp mented by the IDF prior to and during
Operation Protective Edge. c

DTI8 SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL AviationWeek.com/defense
NAVAL OPERATIONS

Gallery See more Aviation Week


photos from the world’s most important
Expansion PLAN and diverse naval exercise—tap here in the digital
edition, or go to AviationWeek.com/Rimpac
China uses Rimpac after a natural disaster and search for
Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.
to highlight naval Developing a more capable and in-
capabilities The guided missile destroyer ternational navy, Zhao says, provides
stability and peace in home waters. It
171 CNS Haikou was the
command ship of the also sets the stage for China, the U.S.
flotilla sent by the Chinese and other navies to continue conduct-
navy for Rimpac 2014. ing missions and exercises together
and build understanding and trust.
This, he says, will help prevent mis-
communication and foster harmony,
even in tense regions such as the
Asia-Pacific.
“In the future,” Zhao notes, “China
will conduct more missions and opera-
tions with other navies.”
One of his concerns as more Chinese
ships ply international waters is mak-
ing sure that warships, auxiliary ships
and other assets share data and infor-
U.S. DEFENSE DEPARTMENT mation, and communicate properly.
Michael Fabey Aboard 171 CNS Haikou “We are developing other capacities
in this respect,” he says.
or the Chinese People’s Liberation And what is equally clear to the The Haikou is an example of such

F Army Navy (PLAN), just showing


up at its first-ever U.S.-sponsored
Rimpac (Rim of the Pacific) exercise
U.S. and its allies is that despite Chi-
na’s growing prowess on the seas, the
country still has maturing to do when
efforts. The vessel is a Type 052C, or
Luyang II-class destroyer, launched
in October 2003 and commissioned
off Hawaii June 26-Aug. 1 would have it comes to international maritime pro- two years later. It features a robust
been enough to hoist a “Mission Ac- tocol and good will. During Rimpac, communications network that makes
complished” banner onboard the four China sent an intelligence-gathering the ship a good command-and-control
participating ships. ship, the AGI 853 Dongdiao, to spy on platform, according to its officers. The
But the Chinese went well beyond exercise participants including, appar- ship has a data link and satellite com-
that: Its ships and crews earned rave ently, PLAN’s own vessels. The ship of munications.
reviews from those who visited or con- most interest for the 853, though, ap- According to the recent book by
ducted exercises with the vessels. Offi- peared to be the aircraft carrier USS James Bussert and Bruce Elleman,
cers onboard PLAN’s newest and most Ronald Reagan. People’s Liberation Army-Navy, Combat
advanced guided missile destroyer, the Such spy ships are common during Systems Technology 1949-2011, the Haik-
171 CNS Haikou, were proud of the ves- these exercises, but U.S. Navy officials ou and sister Chinese “Aegis ships will
sel’s performance during Rimpac. For say this seems to be the first time a likely have long-term software head-
higher-level officials, China’s participa- participant nation spied at the same aches, but will provide a new level of
tion in the world’s largest maritime ex- time it was involved in exercises. command and control.”
ercise was one major waypoint toward “That’s the conundrum that is Chi- Haikou officers say they have re-
reaching the country’s goal of develop- na,” Adm. Harry Harris, U.S. Navy solved command-and-control issues,
ing a true blue-water naval force. Pacific Fleet commander, tells Aviation but China still looks to upgrade its
Indeed, PLAN continues to maintain Week. “The country has participated destroyers in much the same way that
and expand overseas missions and ex- in a series of global naval goodwill ef- the U.S. and other navies do.
ercises, says Senior Capt. Zhao Xiao- forts. But China also has been involved Luyang-class ships are a major
gang, who commanded the task force in provocative incidents in the region improvement over previous Chinese
of Chinese ships at Rimpac. that have increased tensions.” destroyers, according to the U.S. Con-
What is clear from the exercise Fielding questions through an in- gressional Research Service (CRS),
and other international forays is that terpreter, Zhao echoes Harris’s com- which says they “are substantially
PLAN needs to develop more robust ments that China and PLAN have more modern in terms of their hull
communications between its ships and participated in several international designs, propulsion systems, sensors,
those of other navies, Zhao told Avia- maritime missions with other na- weapons and electronics.”
tion Week during an exclusive inter- vies—including efforts to eliminate The CRS adds, “The Luyang II-class
view that followed a tour of the Haikou Syrian chemical weapons, provide ships and the Luyang III-class ships
(see page DT18). humanitarian aid in the Philippines appear to feature phased-array radars

DTI10 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/defense
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NAVAL OPERATIONS

that are outwardly somewhat similar launched, meaning there is no need for ing different missions, he notes, based
to the SPY-1 radar used in the U.S.- the “complex smoke and fire ducts” of on testing and demonstrations that the
made Aegis combat system. Like the the U.S. Mk. 41 VLS, according to Bus- service is conducting.
older Luda-class destroyers, these six sert and Elleman’s book. The Chinese The Pentagon, in its recent annual
new destroyer classes are armed with destroyers are the first, the book as- report on China, states: “The first Luy-
ASCMs [antiship cruise missiles].” serts, with larger versions of the C-802 ang III-class DDG (Type 052D), which
The Haikou assessment is on the or C-803 (YJ-83) supersonic missile, will likely enter service in 2014, incor-
mark, officers onboard the destroyer with a range of 250 km (155 mi.) at porates the PLA Navy’s first multipur-
say. The vessel’s combat system is as subsonic cruise phase. pose vertical launch system likely ca-
capable as the Aegis shield, they con- The ship also appears to feature au- pable of launching ASCMs, land-attack
tend. “What you have, we have,” the tomation that allows its bridge to be cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles,
combat systems officer says. run by a handful of officers and crew, and antisubmarine missiles.”
The destroyers are believed to be similar to that of Norwegian destroyer- China is projected to need more
the first Chinese warships able to like frigates. During the Haikou tour, than a dozen of these ships to replace
defend ships against long-range air officers also pointed out torpedo- its aging Luda-class destroyers. PLAN
and missile attacks. The earlier Type launching capabilities, anchored by officers see the ships as anchoring a
052B destroyers combined Russian two triple 324-mm torpedo tubes. “peace-through-strength” philosophy.
and Chinese systems, Haikou officers Like other destroyers, Haikou is “China has always pursued a road

The Haikou
(foreground)
joins other ships
for an exercise
during Rimpac.

A Harbin Z-9 helicopter is used by the


Haikou for ASW and other airborne missions.
MICHAEL FABEY PHOTOS/AW&ST PHOTOS

say, but that is no longer the case. equipped with a helicopter for antisub- of peaceful development and a na-
“We have our own systems,” the com- marine warfare and other missions. tional defense policy that is defensive
munications officer says. “Chinese The destroyer brought to Rimpac a in nature,” Zhao says. But to maintain
systems.” However, there are some Harbin Z-9 rotorcraft, a version of that defense, the country is developing
sensors on the ship that appear to be the Eurocopter Dauphin. Officers on technology, equipment and platforms
from foreign sources. the Haikou say the aircraft has robust to bolster its strength and capabilities.
The ship’s 100-mm gun looks to be communications and data process- China’s strategy for its armed forc-
derived from the French Creusot-Loire ing. Information from the helicopter es is to develop military strength that
T100C, built to battle surface targets, is transmitted through an integrated “conforms with national security and
aircraft and missiles flying at low speed, processing system, which is tied to the broad interests,” Zhao remarks. “This
with a reported maximum fire rate of Haikou, apparently the first Chinese is similar to all developing armed
90 rounds/min. The turret is designed ship with the system. forces. China’s armed force keeps on
to reduce its radar cross section. The The ship’s powerplant combines two upgrading weaponry properly and in
ship also has two 30-mm guns. Ukrainian-made gas turbines with Chi- a balanced way.
The Haikou officers were forthright nese diesel engines. It drives the 7,000- “This is also reliable support of our
in discussing the ship and its capa- ton ship, fully loaded, 509 ft. long and country to safeguard national sover-
bilities. Standing on the deck below with a crew of 280, to at least 30 kt. eignty and security—to guarantee our
the bridge, they extoll the attributes While the main mission of U.S. de- national harmony to maintain world
of their vertical-launching missile stroyers is protecting aircraft carriers, peace and stability,” he says.
system (VLS). The officers pointed Chinese destroyers and frigates spend The Chinese ships that participat-
out the lid hinges for each of the six most of their time on patrol, doing es- ed in Rimpac, Zhao notes, show how
launch cylinders. “They do not need to cort duty, conducting antipiracy mis- far PLAN has come with its design,
rotate,” they say, as do those on Rus- sions and participating in exercises, construction and operational capa-
sian vessels. Both systems are cold- Zhao says. PLAN is considering add- bilities. c

DTI12 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/defense
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LAND FORCES

Future Force tection against large-caliber kinetic


energy rounds, rocket-propelled gre-
nades and anti-tank guided missiles.
Indonesia invests heavily in modernization Air conditioning with dehumidification
is part of the package (Indonesia is, of
Nicholas Fiorenza Berlin course, a tropical country).
The remaining 42 Leopard 2A4+
ndonesia’s December 2012 contract military’s combat capabilities and par- tanks are only receiving air condition-

I with German defense contractor


Rheinmetall for armored vehicles is
an important component of the nation’s
ticipation in international missions of
the United Nations and the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations. Indonesia
ing (the Marders, however, are not).
The contract includes Rheinmetall’s
DM11 120-mm multipurpose high-ex-
wide-ranging military modernization has participated in U.N. peacekeeping plosive tank rounds, making Indonesia
program, which involves acquisition of missions in the Middle East and the the second user of this ammunition; the
equipment from several countries. Democratic Republic of Congo. Some U.S. Marine Corps is the first.
Under the €216 million ($283 million) of the new Leopard 2 tanks will be used The Indonesian modernization pro-
contract, Rheinmetall is supplying In- for training for such missions. gram runs from 2015-29, and foresees a
donesia with armored vehicles, train- The German armor will increase the “minimum essential force” for all three
services. In addition to the Leopard 2
main battle tanks and Marder AIFVs,
Indonesia is buying over army acquisitions includes the Caesar
100 Leopard 2 tanks from truck-mounted 155-mm howitzer from
Rheinmetall similar to the 2A4s Nexter Systems of France, Astros II
shown here in Jakarta. multiple-launch rocket system from
Avibras of Brazil, and Boeing Apache
Longbow and Sikorsky Black Hawk
helicopters.
Air force acquisitions include Rus-
sian Sukhoi Su-30 combat aircraft,
KAI T-50 and Super Tucano light at-
tack aircraft/trainers from, respective-
ly, South Korea and Brazil, and Grob
120TP trainers from Germany.
Jakarta’s military upgrades include The navy is acquiring frigates trans-
Marder 1A3 armored infantry fighting vehicles. ferred from Brunei, and Eurocopter
AS565 Panther antisubmarine-war-
fare helicopters.
The Rheinmetall armor contract
took two months of negotiations (Sept.
9-Nov. 11, 2012) and then nearly a year
before legal formalities were com-
pleted and it became effective. Nego-
tiations were impeded by a restrictive
German arms-export policy, which
RHEINMETALL PHOTOS
ultimately resulted in the Leopard 2
tanks being supplied without coaxial
ing equipment and logistical support firepower of an army that is equipped machine guns because small arms ex-
as well as practice and service ammu- with 275 French AMX-13 and 120 Brit- port licenses were difficult to obtain.
nition. Deliveries are scheduled from ish Scorpion light tanks, and 236 locally A Rheinmetall program manager,
2014-16. built Panser Anoa 6 X 6 armored per- Michael Kerwin, is not sure if future
The vehicles include 103 Leopard 2 sonnel carriers, which were manufac- deals with Indonesia will receive Ger-
main battle tanks, 42 Marder (Marten) tured by state-owned PT Pindad. In- man export approval, but says they
1A3 armored infantry fighting vehicles donesia’s neighbors are equipped with hope to sell more Marders to the
(AIFV), three Bueffel (Buffalo) and two newer, heavier tanks: Thailand fields 49 country. The company plans to bring
Leopard 1 armored recovery vehicles, T-84 Oplot M versions from Ukraine; the Wiesel 2 armored vehicle to the In-
three Biber (Beaver) armored vehicle- Malaysia operates 64 PT91 vehicles dodefense trade show in Jakarta this
launched bridges and three Dachs from Poland; and Singapore is equipped November after a deal to produce it
(Badger) armored engineering vehicles. with 101 Leopard 2 SNG versions from in Indonesia fell through because the
Under its current military doctrine, Germany. export license arrived late.
the country seeks to protect indepen- Rheinmetall is upgrading 61 of the Last month, PT Pindad and Rhein-
dence and preserve national unity tanks on order to the Leopard 2 RI metall signed a memorandum of un-
through homeland defense and main- (Republic of Indonesia) standard. This derstanding to produce large-caliber
taining the regional balance of power. includes new electric and turret drives munitions at the former’s facility in
The doctrine foresees increasing the and cabling, and improved turret pro- Turen, East Java. c

DTI14 SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL AviationWeek.com/defense
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Tech Scan

ELBIT SYSTEMS
TRAILBLAZER
The British Army is downsizing to its
smallest number of soldiers since the
Napoleonic Wars but staying the course
in key procurement areas. On Sept. 3,
the Defense Ministry announced a
contract with General Dynamics UK
for 589 Scout SV (specialist vehicle)
platforms for use by armored cavalry
(see photo, with Philip Dunne, min-
ister for defense equipment, support
and technology). The £3.5 billion ($5.7
billion) deal is the U.K.’s largest single
order for armored vehicles in 30 years.
It entails deliveries in 2017-24 and in-
cludes support and training. Scout SV
armored fighting vehicles (AFV) are

Smaller capable of “sustained, expeditionary,


full-spectrum and network-enabled
operations,” according to General Dy-

Is Better

GENERAL DYNAMICS UK
Developers eye mini-lasers for small UAVs
David Hambling London

mall unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) lack a vital tool

S carried by their larger cousins: a laser designator. Now


designators are shrinking to fit the smallest UAVs.
The newest designators weigh less it should be less expensive than tradi- namics UK. The vehicle is being built
than 10 lb., and the goal is a 1-lb. class tional designators. in different versions. The primary one
for hand-launched UAVs. Meanwhile, the U.S. Combatting is reconnaissance and strike, which
Arete Associates of Longmont, Col- Terrorism Technical Support Office will account for 198 vehicles. Others
orado, has an ultra-compact designa- has requested miniature designators include: command-and-control (112
tor the size of a golf ball called Airtrac with a slant range of 1,500 ft. for small vehicles); armored personnel carrier
that could fit the bill. UAVs. (59); engineering recon (51); formation
“We developed a proprietary 3-D Elbit Systems of Israel has devel- recon and overwatch (34); surveillance
resonator design that is a significant oped a range of miniature laser desig- (24); and joint fire control (23). Eight-
departure from traditional approach- nators around a common core called eight will be dedicated to recovery and
es,” says James Murray, Airtrac pro- Rattler. The smallest is around 1 lb. repair. The Scout SV will have a combat
gram manager. “We saw . . . requirements on the weight of 34-42 tons, and some are be-
In this approach the resonator, the airborne side to pack more capability ing equipped with a 40-mm cannon. c
cavity in which the laser is generated, into smaller real estate and increase
is more compact than traditional pla- performance,” says Dan Slasky, vice
nar designs. Airtrac is athermal and president of laser systems. Details are COLOR COORDINATES
operates at any temperature, eliminat- proprietary, but Rattler is an athermal Soldiers use smoke grenades for con-
ing the need for bulky temperature- laser. Like Airtrac, it produces pulses
U.S. ARMY

management systems. powerful enough to be picked up by


“You turn the laser on at any tem- a range of laser-seeker heads. Slasky
perature within the mil-spec range and says this includes seekers on mortar
the output should be unchanged,” says bombs and other small munitions.
Murray. “To be truly athermal, all major Although there are limits to how far
laser specs must be the same at -40C the technology can shrink, Murray and
[-40F] as at 65C. Quite often athermal Slasky believe further reductions are
lasers don’t meet all of the require- possible. Before long, every UAV and
ments over temperature at once.” soldier could have a designator, and
Murray says Arete aims to get laser-guided munitions will reach ev-
Airtrac into volume production, and ery corner of the battlespace. c

DTI16 SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL AviationWeek.com/defense
For more breaking news, go to AviationWeek.com/defense

cealment and to signal via the release SCAN AND DESTROY cial barriers. A SAGM round, fired
of colored smoke. In the U.S. Army, Work on Small Arms Grenade Mu- from a rifle-mounted M203 or M320
many soldiers must carry multiple M18 nitions (SAGM) at the U.S. Army launcher, detects defilade obstacles
grenades, each with different colors of Armament Research, Development such as walls and explodes past
smoke (red, yellow, green or violet) to and Engineering Center (Ardec) is them in an airburst to hit targets. In
meet battlefield needs. To lighten this in the third and final phase of de- Phase 1, Ardec engineers developed
load, the Army’s Edgewood Chemical velopment. SAGM is an innovative the fuze component for use with the
and Biological Center (ECBC) devel- M433 round. In Phase 2, sensors and
oped a prototype grenade that can, logic devices were added to the fuze
with the twist of two buttons, gener- to scan surroundings and activate
ate different colors. Called the Select- airburst detonation. The engineers
able Color Single Canister Smoke working in Phase 3 are optimiz-
Hand Grenade, the device has three ing the fuze sensor, improving its
compartments with red, yellow and accuracy and integrating it with a
blue dyes. Two dials atop the grenade high-explosive warhead, according
permit a soldier to mix the dyes and to an update. Another objective is
make differently colored, low-toxicity to increase the round’s accuracy at
smoke. Seven colors can be gener- ranges of 51-500 meters (167-1,640
ated in all. ECBC says each dye has a ft). SAGM has three modes: airburst,
U.S. MARINE CORPS
distinct thermodynamic composition point (impact) detonation and self-
and reacts to heat and gas differently. targeting system for M433 40-mm destruct. The next step is the hand-
Tests this summer show the prototype grenades. It is engineered to neu- off of SAGM to the project manager
released 75% of the smoke from an M18 tralize concealed targets, human or of ammunition systems at Ardec in
grenade. Work is ongoing. c machine, behind natural or artifi- 2015. c

Make your mission a success.


Border control with the Dornier 228 NG.

View video
RUAG Aerospace Services GmbH | RUAG Aviation
P.O. Box 1253 | Special Airfield Oberpfaffenhofen | 82231 Wessling | Germany
Phone +49 8153 30-2162 | info.de.aviation@ruag.com
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AviationWeek.com/defense AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY DEFENSE TECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 DTI17
FIRST PERSON

MICHAEL FABEY/AW&ST
Mission Ready
Probably no other naval officer attracted more attention during the U.S.-hosted
Rimpac 2014 (June 26-Aug. 1) than People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)
Sr. Capt. Zhao Xiaogang, commander of the four-ship task force China sent to
the biennial maritime exercise. This was China’s first Rimpac (Rim of Pacific)
exercise, and its vessels conducted multilateral operations with other navies off
Hawaii. Following a rare at-sea tour of the missile destroyer CNS 171 Haikou,
the commander’s ship, Zhao sat for an interview (through an interpreter) with
Navy Editor Michael Fabey.

Defense Technology: Why did China What is China’s view of its inter-
participate in Rimpac? national expansion?
China has always pursued a road of
Zhao Xiaogang: Chinese participa- peaceful development and a national
tion represents an important measure defense policy that is defensive in na-
of the stature of China and the U.S., ture. We stress the development of na-
and the new relations between the ma- tional defense and economic growth
jor powers. This will enhance relations to safeguard our sovereignty and
between our countries and develop security. Our armed forces and their Senior Capt. Zhao
friendly and pragmatic cooperation, formidable military strength conform Xiaogang
which should be conducive to promot- to our national security needs and
ing peace and stability in the Asia- broad interests. This is similar to all Drill director of the People’s
Pacific region. Through the exercise, [countries] that develop their armed Liberation Army Navy fleet,
briefings, receptions and ship activities forces. China’s military keeps upgrad- Rimpac task force commander, China
we now have a better understanding ing weapons and equipment properly,
of each other. It will enhance mutual and in a balanced way. Education: Naval Academy and
trust. This is important for coopera- Naval Command College
tion in the future. What does PLAN need in terms of
future fleet capabilities? Background: PLAN officer
What was most surprising to you In the world now, many developing
during Rimpac? countries are engaging in the revolu- for 30 years with experience
I am impressed with the fact there tion in military affairs based on in- in multiple commands.
are so many participants. (Rimpac formation and high tech, the trend
involved the navies of 22 nations.) As of future development. China is no
naval officers we have much in com- exception. We are trying to develop
mon. We’ve had good results in terms integrated combat capabilities that What developments are planned
of mutual understanding. include all naval assets: surface ships, for destroyers?
submarines and aircraft. We want to We are still conducting research in
What impression do you think improve our integrated operations. this area.
your task force made on Rimpac
participants? How are communications aboard Is China looking at incorporating
We have four ships here, indigenous- the Haikou? more unmanned systems on de-
ly made. These ships represent the We are developing capabilities in this stroyers and other surface ships?
readiness level of our navy. We opened area. This is not a field I am familiar with.
our ships to visitors [so] all participat- But I do read news in regard to U.S.
ing countries and visitors could have How does the Haikou compare to surface command officers, Littoral
a better understanding of China and the U.S. Arleigh Burke-class of Combat Ship systems and how they
the Chinese navy. guided-missile destroyers? work. Currently, we are doing re-
Look at those other ships participating search and development.
What were your instructions to of- in Rimpac. Most look similar, in terms
ficers and sailors as they steamed of design, equipment and capabilities. The U.S. Navy is starting to rely
to Rimpac? more heavily on helicopters, other
We didn’t have particular instructions What are the primary missions for aerial assets and sensors for anti-
for Rimpac. The Chinese navy has China’s destroyers? submarine warfare (ASW). Does
been expanding in recent years. We Our destroyers, including the frig- PLAN have a similar mind-set?
have had regular contacts overseas. ates, are the most advanced warships With regard to questions about the
These activities will be become more in the navy. Missions include patrol, development of advanced sensors to
common in the future. Our sailors escort, antipiracy operations and enhance ASW capabilities, I am not
don’t need instructions. joint exercises. authorized to speak about that. c

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DEFENSE

Facing Threats “The force must be multinational to


demonstrate resolve,” he says.
The force would also require an evo-
Ukrainian crisis has prompted NATO lution in NATO policy along the lines
of the alliance’s Smart Defense, the
to beef up defenses, but at what cost? harmonization of requirements and
pooling and sharing of capabilities.
Tony Osborne Newport, Wales Building on the Smart Defense initia-
tive, work continues on the Framework
ATO is moving to establish a parliaments, that they will reverse the Nation Concept under which key alli-

N high-readiness force that can


deploy anywhere on the globe
in 2-5 days, and it will likely be an ex-
trend.”
The new VJTF is likely to benefit
from the increase in funding. Brit-
ance states, such as the U.S., Germany
or the U.K., take the lead in NATO ob-
jectives—an expeditionary capability
pensive undertaking. ain was early to offer troops—Prime would be led by the U.K. and France,
The new Very High-Readiness Joint Minister David Cameron confirms for example.
Task Force (VJTF), or Spearhead that 1,000 British soldiers will be Bradshaw says the high readiness
force, could become operational in a committed—but so far, other nations of the VJTF would make it difficult
year. It is being designed to provide re- have proven reticent. Only Eastern for the force to be rotated around the
assurance to members on the alliance’s European countries such as Roma- various alliance corps, although indi-
eastern fringes and have a deterrent
effect on adversaries.
The Allied Command Europe Mo-
bile Force (AMF), NATO’s former
high-readiness force, was disbanded
in 2002, but 12 years on, the alliance
is facing unexpected new threats. As
it dials down its mission in Afghani-
stan, NATO is grappling with how to
respond to the crisis in Ukraine and
perceived increase in Russian aggres-
sion through hybrid warfare, as well
as to Islamic extremism in Syria and
Iraq.
The VJTF formation will put in-
creased pressure on deployable equip-
ment, strategic airlift and sealift at a
time when the alliance is urging its NATO
members to halt the declines in de-
fense budgets. NATO wants all mem- NATO leaders in Newport, Wales, signed a plan, good for up to 10 years,
ber countries to target 2% of GDP for to reverse defense cuts and meet alliance spending thresholds.
their military spending—currently
only achieved by Estonia, Greece, the nia, Poland and the Baltic states are vidual nations would be able to rotate
U.K. and U.S.—and commit a fifth of willing to host reception facilities and the troops they commit.
that to purchasing equipment and pre-positioned equipment. In support of the VJTF, Bradshaw
conducting research and development. The spearhead force would include also says the enhanced air policing
NATO Secretary General Anders several thousand land troops, available operations would continue with NATO
Fogh-Rasmussen says he has regis- to deploy within days, with air, sea and nations forward-deploying aircraft to
tered the interest of members to re- special forces support. bases in Lithuania, Poland and Roma-
verse the decline and boost investment Gen. Adrian Bradshaw, deputy su- nia. At the beginning of September,
during the next decade. preme commander of NATO forces in the U.K. Royal Air Force and Polish
“This decision has been taken in Europe, says the new joint force would air force, which had led the Baltic air
a completely new security environ- require greater investment in strategic policing mission since April, handed
ment,” says Rasmussen. “Russia’s ag- airlift to carry the 5,000-10,000 troops. over the operation to the Canadian
gression against Ukraine is a wake-up There also would need to be a focus on and Portuguese air forces.
call. Russia has increased its defense air and missile defense, antisubmarine Other countries also have upped their
investment by 50%, while NATO al- warfare, greater intelligence-gathering readiness in response to the Russian in-
lies, on average, have decreased their capabilities and a dedicated command- cursion. The German defense ministry
defense spending by 20%. I think this and-control capability to ensure that has announced that the joint Danish,
new security environment will be the unconventional warfare such as that German and Polish Multinational Corps
driving force [behind] . . . actually seen in Ukraine involving military per- Northeast, based in Szczecin, Poland,
implementing this pledge. A number sonnel without any national insignia will increase its readiness to deploy to
of allies have already declared, based would not “paralyze decision-making,” one month from three months in two
on broad political agreements in their according to Bradshaw. steps between 2016 and 2018. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 31


DEFENSE

Deciding Vote closing two major air bases: RAF


Kinloss, previously home to the
Nimrod maritime patrol aircraft;
Narrowing polls in Scottish independence and RAF Leuchars, an air defense
base. This role has been transferred
referendum prompt U.K. defense concerns to RAF Lossiemouth in Moray. Kin-
loss is now an Army barracks and
Tony Osborne London Leuchars may go the same way, re-
ceiving troops returning from Ger-
owever they vote on Sept. 18, many in the coming years. Further-

H the four million residents


eligible to cast ballots in the
Scottish independence referendum
Current U.K. Defense
Ministry Bases/Facilities
in Scotland
more, the Royal Navy bases none of
its surface ships in Scotland. These
changes have painted a dim view
are set to change the face of the No
of the U.K. seat of government for
British Isles and how they will be rth Scottish voters. The Defense Min-
defended. istry has argued that nearly 10% of

Se
RAF Lossiemouth

a
Few if any plans to deal with the Kinloss Barracks
regular armed forces personnel will
possible transition toward an inde- (formerly RAF Kinloss) be based in Scotland by 2020.
pendent Scotland have been drafted But a yes vote could also prompt
by defense officials, but as the re- Scotland Scotland’s small but important
sults of polls have narrowed in the Rosyth Naval RAF Leuchars
defense industry to move out as
final weeks of campaigning, there Dockyard well. Shipbuilding, which employs
has been a dawning realization that 5,000 there, would be most at risk,
Faslane Submarine Base Edinburgh
a majority “yes” vote is now a very (HM Naval Base Clyde) particularly as current British gov-
real possibility. ernment policy is to produce ships
Even a “no” vote is likely to result and submarines for the Royal Navy
in a radical devolution that will not Northern using national industry. The Air-
only see the current Scottish execu- Ireland craft Carrier Alliance is building
tive gain authority but also prompt the the U.K.’s two new ships at Rosyth
revamping of politics across the U.K. Ireland Sea England near Edinburgh. But shipbuild-
sh
But what politicians fear most, Iri ers are likely to feel they have to
of course, is a yes vote—a decision move south in order to support the
that would end 300 years of unity, Navy’s needs.
with defense likely to be an early Sources: Google Maps and AW&ST Art Dept. The SNP says it should inherit
victim. Concerns about the vote have of the country’s nuclear capability, a share of the U.K.’s defense assets
even prompted the U.K. Parliament a move that would not go down well to help it establish a defense force.
to delay what would be a politically with NATO partners and probably the Based on population, the party says
divisive decision on possible U.K. par- European Union—two organizations Scotland’s share would be worth
ticipation in airstrikes against Islamic that Scotland aspires to join. about £7.8 billion and would include at
insurgents in Iraq. Nonetheless, the Scottish National least 12-16 Eurofighter Typhoons for
While the 2010 Strategic Defense Party’s (SNP) own rhetoric on the air defense, and six Lockheed Martin
and Security Review (SDSR) actu- Tridents is clear. Its white paper on C-130J Hercules to form a tactical air
ally has had the effect of significantly Scottish independence says they are transport squadron. It would also get
downsizing the armed forces’ pres- an “affront to basic decency with its a fleet of helicopters. This is likely to
ence in Scotland—in particular for the indiscriminate and inhuman destruc- be the subject of significant negotia-
Royal Air Force—it remains home to tive power.” tion, however.
Britain’s Trident armed ballistic mis- The SNP argues that by being in- A no vote will retain the union and
sile submarines, the country’s collec- dependent, there will be no need for allow defense planners to breathe
tive nuclear deterrent. the country to be involved in the de- a sigh of relief, but further devolu-
While fighter aircraft and soldiers velopment of the Trident successor tion for the Scottish Parliament may
can be moved easily to new home program, a project with an expected prompt questions about whether
bases and barracks south of the bor- price tag of £100 billion ($161 billion) its politicians should still have a say
der, relocating the nuclear deterrent over the next 20-30 years. in the affairs of its neighbors, while
would be a major headache for de- The nationalists also claim that counterparts in England, Wales and
fense planners. A belligerent Scot- while Scotland currently pays in 10% of Northern Ireland have no say about
land could force Britain to remove the current U.K. defense budget of £34 Scotland. This issue, dubbed the
the submarines quickly, without the billion, only around half comes back. “West Lothian question” could in-
necessary infrastructure in place to They also assert that without contri- voke more transfers of power in other
support them immediately available butions from Scotland, the Defense parts of the country.
elsewhere—except perhaps the U.S. Ministry could see £13 billion less in If the people vote yes, the SNP in-
or France—and not in England for at its £160 billion equipment budget for tends to have a constitutional platform
least several years. This may result in the next decade. in place for Scotland to become inde-
the potential unilateral disarmament The 2010 SDSR had the effect of pendent by March 2016. c

32 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


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ROTORCRAFT

If the aircraft is a demonstra-


Advancing Rotors tor for environmentally friendly
technologies, then it would ap-
pear from the change to the
New image shows significant main rotor system that the fo-
cus is on noise reduction. The
update to EC135 helicopter images suggest the blades may

Airbus Helicopters has


radically rebuilt the EC135 to
include a new main rotor and
new-look anti-torque system.
be of a wider chord than found
on the current EC135 and have
a noticeable kink toward the
blade tip, suggesting they may
have benefited from the compa-
ny’s Blue Edge blade-technology
work. It is also possible that the
aircraft is testing technologies
for the company’s planned X9
ALEXANDER LUTZ
aircraft, which is expected to
Tony Osborne London debut in 2018-19. Details on the
development of the X9 were re-
ith the gearbox troubles of Safety Agency certification of the lat- vealed when the Systemhaus opened,

W the EC225 now firmly behind


it and the first customer de-
liveries of the delayed EC175 rapidly
est versions of the EC135, the P3 and
T3 variants. Certification is expected
during September.
with company officials saying much
of the work on that product would be
conducted at Donauworth.
approaching, Airbus Helicopters can The photographer—a regular visitor Given that one of the main strengths
perhaps feel more comfortable about to the Donauworth site—told Aviation of the facility has been the develop-
restarting its product-line renewal. Week that the aircraft had made sev- ment of light twin-engine helicopters
And as this new image shows, a sig- eral appearances outside the plant. It born from the designs of Messer-
nificant part of that renewal work may is not clear if the aircraft has flown schmitt-Bolkow-Blohm, it is likely that
be underway in Germany. The image or undertaken any ground running, a future product from Donauworth
above, captured by German helicopter although company sources have sug- may be in this product category. In late
enthusiast Alexander Lutz, shows that gested the program was in a relatively July, journalists were shown prototype
the first prototype of the EC135 light advanced state. composite rotor blades that were pro-
twin has been radically modified. In a statement to Aviation Week, duced with levels of automation reach-
Photographed at the company’s the manufacturer said it was “testing ing 80%.
Donauworth plant in Bavaria in late environment-friendly technologies on The Donauworth site also has be-
July, the aircraft, D-HEEX, has a five- a demonstrator aircraft. For the time come a center for the production of
or six-blade main rotor rather than the being, we cannot disclose further in- large carbon-fiber components. The
previously standard four-blade mod- formation.” entire carbon-fiber tail boom and hous-
el, and a newly designed, fenestron- Airbus Helicopters’ facilities at ing for the fenestron of the EC145 T2
shrouded anti-torque system. The new Donauworth have become a key node is produced at the facility. Engineers
design features a horizontal stabilizer in its R&D work. Last May, the com- have also molded single-piece struc-
atop the vertical tail, rather than fitted pany opened a research center, called tural components for the X4 in the
into the tail boom itself, as has been the Systemhaus, to replace similar same facility.
traditional on this model. but dated facilities at Ottobrunn, near However, the number of cosmetic
A simplified tail boom also has been Munich. The new facility contains changes made to the aircraft sug-
developed, while the rear fuselage has laboratories and workshops, while gests it is more likely to be a new ver-
been modified, possibly to provide the ground floor includes a prototype sion of the helicopter—perhaps an
more room in the very rear of the cab- shop, allowing engineers to take the EC135 T4/P4 model. Photographers
in. The aircraft’s clamshell doors—one work completed in the laboratory and at Donauworth also outed the 2010
of the key selling points of the aircraft, apply it directly to mock-ups of the development of the EC145 T2 with a
particularly for air ambulance opera- new models’ airframes. fenestron rather than standard tail ro-
tors—appear to remain, however. The The airframe for the first prototype tor. The aircraft was unveiled at He-
aircraft also features new landing X4—the replacement for Airbus Heli- licopter Association International’s
skids. copters’ AS365 and EC155 models—is Heli-Expo 2011. It is possible that this
The type’s radical new look comes as in the Systemhaus, and is known to new EC135 may also be revealed at the
a surprise, particularly as the manu- have been delivered there during mid- same event in 2015, where the compa-
facturer is awaiting European Aviation summer. ny plans to unveil the X4. c

34 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


AIR TRANSPORT

newed questions about its affiliate


Austrian, which may have to reinstate
an old collective-bargaining agreement
with pilots following a European Court
of Justice ruling, unless a compromise
with the works council can be reached.
Lufthansa has been considering build-
ing up a new airline in the country—
which would not have Austrian’s legacy
costs—and shutting down the existing
carrier.
Air France-KLM’s Transavia oper-
Transavia plans to operate 100 aircraft, ates about 50 aircraft and plans to
likely Boeing 737s, by 2017. double in size over the next three years,
though de Juniac indicates that if things
go well, the carrier could grow further.
He declines to identify where Transa-
JOEPRIESAVIATION.NET via will expand first, but it is believed
to be looking at Portugal and Germany.

Tough Choices One base could be Munich, one of the


two hubs of its primary competitor,
Lufthansa. Executives at the German
airline indicate that should Transavia
Air France-KLM and Lufthansa, coming late to try to establish a base in Munich, Luft-
hansa would react fiercely.
the low-fare market, prepare to take risks Air France-KLM officials expect
Transavia to carry around 20 million
Jens Flottau Frankfurt passengers in 2017. Europe’s current
low-fare champion, Ryanair, transports
ir France-KLM is not known for quickly transforming its

A
about 80 million and also plans to dou-
business and reacting to trends. Fifteen years after the ble in size within the next 10 years and
operate a fleet of 500 aircraft.
low-cost revolution started to change European air trans- Air France-KLM is entering the Eu-
port, the group is ready to enter the fray. But turning its affiliate ropean low-cost arena extremely late;
Transavia into a large European low-cost carrier likely will be it will have to find routes to grow in a
market that even established low-cost
too little, too late. airlines are having difficulty developing
As part of its Perform 2020 stra- from growing. A large part of the Vuel- further. The Transavia plans are also
tegic plan, which Air France/KLM ing business touches Spain—the airline opposed by Air France pilot unions
Chairman/CEO Alexandre de Juniac is based in Barcelona—but it has been SNPL and SPAF, which want equal
presented last week, the group will aggressively expanding into other Eu- pay across the entire group, including
grow the fleet of its low-cost subsid- ropean markets, connecting new bases Transavia. However, de Juniac says Air
iary Transavia to 100 aircraft by 2017. in various other countries. France conditions would be impossible
In April 2015, in addition to its bases in Lufthansa, meanwhile, is moving at the low-fare unit, unless “you want
the Netherlands and France, Transa- its entire non-hub flying to German- to kill Transavia.” He argues that the
via Europe will start flying from three wings and Eurowings. As part of its carrier is not taking over Air France
bases abroad, and it will add three new Wings concept, the carrier also routes but entering markets that
more a year later, de Juniac says. The plans to set up a new long-haul, low- the airline has not served. Transavia
group will invest €1 billion ($1.28 bil- cost airline. Lufthansa says it will re- France is limited to a fleet of 14 air-
lion) in Transavia over the next five veal more details once the supervisory craft through agreements with pilots,
years, but expects no operating profit board has been briefed this week. The but de Juniac would like to increase the
until 2018. new long-haul unit is to operate about France-based fleet to 37. Transavia op-
With the growth of Transavia, all of seven aircraft initially, either Boeing erates an all-Boeing 737 fleet.
the big three European carriers now 767s or Airbus 330s that the airline is As part of Perform 2020, Air France-
have large low-cost affiliates in place, preparing to order. The aircraft will be KLM also plans to create a new busi-
but their strategies are markedly dif- based in Munich and Cologne/Bonn or ness unit that combines narrowbody
ferent. International Airlines Group Dusseldorf and operate on routes Luf- point-to-point operations (which are
(IAG) owns Vueling, a highly profitable thansa can no longer fly profitably or mainly based at Paris-Orly airport)
carrier that is kept separate from the would not consider entering on cost with the HOP! regional scheme, itself
group’s other units, British Airways grounds. Regional carrier Eurowings a conglomerate of the group’s various
and Iberia. BA and Iberia pilot agree- will transition to Airbus A320s from a regional carriers. Air France aims to
ments, unlike Air France-KLM’s, have fleet of Bombardier CRJ900s. return its regional operations to profit-
no clauses that would inhibit Vueling The German group also faces re- ability by 2017. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 35


AIR TRANSPORT

Conflict Zone service providers (ANSP) and others to gather timely infor-
mation about airspace and airports that could be affacted by
regional conflicts.
Task force demos avoidance tools The system is one of two “immediate” projects launched on
Aug. 26 by the Task Force on Risks to Civil Aviation Arising
as battles slow MH17 investigators from Conflict Zones, a group of state and industry experts
operating under the auspices of the International Civil Avia-
John Croft Washington and Jens Flottau Frankfurt tion Organization (ICAO). The task force is to develop near-
term “fail-safe” channels for threat information, and in the
longer term, develop guidelines and best practices for mitigat-
ing conflict-zone risks to civilian airspace, says the task force
chairman, David McMillan, who is also chairman of the Flight
Safety Foundation and former director general of Eurocontrol.
The other immediate project is an upgrade to the Notices
Dutch investigators determined that “high-energy
objects” from outside the aircraft punctured sections
of the 777 cockpit, but officials did not confirm that a
surface-to-air missile downed the aircraft.

to Airmen (Notam) system. “In particular, we were looking for


what we could do to make use of the existing systems, pretty
much straightaway,” says McMillan. “One idea was that we
should make use of the Notam system.” Notams are notices
and advisories issued by aviation authorities or ANSPs to alert
irlines in Europe and Africa could be the first to begin pilots of potential hazards at airports and along routes. The

A testing the beta version of a conflict-zone warning da-


tabase in October, a tool the international community
called for after the July 17 downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight
project, in which the FAA is a key partner, involves introducing
a special code in the Notam “which would only be used when
you are trying to convey information about airspace restric-
17 (MH17) near Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia. Fight- tions because of conflict zones,” McMillan says.
ing in the region continues to hamper the crash investigation. Such a code does not yet exist. MH17, a Boeing 777-200ER,
The centralized database will allow airlines, air navigation was flying through the Dnipropetrovsk flight information re-

the contributing factors that helped create a cockpit environ-

Safety Steps ment that might have led two highly experienced pilots on
Flight 1354 to neglect proper monitoring and descend below
the decision height for the non-precision approach without
Following UPS 1354, NTSB calls having the runway in sight. Both conditions—a descent rate of
more than 1,000 fpm beyond the final approach fix, and losing
for mending of safety nets sight of the runway below minimums—require a go-around
per company standard operating procedures. The aircraft
John Croft Washington struck trees and then a hillside, killing both pilots.
In its list of six contributing factors, the NTSB says “de-
broad slate of safety upgrades could be on tap for ficiencies” in performance of the captain, who was at the

A airlines as a result of the NTSB’s conclusions on pre-


venting more aircraft from crashing after unstable
approaches.
controls, were “likely due to factors including, but not limited
to, fatigue, distraction or confusion, consistent with perfor-
mance deficiencies [he] exhibited during training.” The NTSB
In a final hearing on UPS Flight 1354, an Airbus A300-600 found that the first officer, who was the pilot-monitoring the
freighter that hit a hillside 0.4 nm from the runway after a approach, was suffering from “acute sleep loss” but that her
flawed non-precision instrument approach into Birmingham, “ineffective off-duty time management and circadian factors”
Alabama, in August 2013, the board issued 20 recommenda- were the cause, not UPS’s scheduling practices. Investigators
tions ranging from required preflight fatigue checklists to found that the captain had taken steps “to mitigate the effects
more comprehensive weather reports, enhanced avionics and of fatigue” in terms of his sleep opportunities, noting, how-
a ban on certain types of instrument approaches. ever, that the accident took place “during the window of the
None of the recommendations directly addresses the is- circadian low.” “Circadian low” refers to the 2-6 a.m. period
sue of pilots continuing an unstable approach rather than during which humans are prone to poor decision-making and
performing a go-around, a recurring problem in the industry increased reaction time.
and the root cause of UPS 1354 and at least two other major Other contributing factors include the pilots’ failure to prop-
crashes in 2013, the underrun of an Asiana Airlines Boeing erly configure and verify a “profile” descent in the flight man-
777-200ER in San Francisco and a Lion Air 737-800 in Bali. agement computer (FMC) and the captain’s failure to tell the
While industry is wrestling with the problem of getting first officer that he had switched descent modes to “dive and
more pilots to perform go-arounds, the NTSB is focusing on drive” late in the approach when the profile mode did not work.

36 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


gion in eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian air traffic services Sept. 9. Based on photographs, investigators say the holes
provider Uksatse issues Notams. There were two Notams in certain cockpit sections were “deformed in a manner con-
in the area: one prohibiting flights below 26,000 ft. and one sistent with being punctured by high-energy objects” that
prohibiting flights between 26,000 ft. and 32,000 ft. MH17 appeared to have originated from outside the fuselage. Investi-
was cruising in unrestricted airspace at 33,000 ft. gators have yet to visit the crash site due to continued fighting
Along with Notams, cues about potential threats to aviation between Ukrainian forces and the rebels, although informa-
would also come from the centralized database. McMillan says tion from Ukrainian and Malaysian investigators who each
Eurocontrol and the Central African civil aviation authority, spent three days at the site in July was used in the analysis.
Asecna, have the facilities for the pilot project and are creat- Aviation Week reported in July that the aircraft was likely
ing prototypes, in part with help from the European Aviation downed by a Russian-built Almaz-Antey Buk-M1 surface-to-
Safety Agency and industry. “There are lots of questions,” says air missile fired by Ukrainian separatist rebels who believed
McMillan. “What information would you be putting on there? they were engaging a military aircraft (AW&ST July 28, p. 23).
What would the sources of that information be? How would The DSB says MH17 was traveling at 494 kt. ground speed
you make sure that it would be kept up to date? And how would at 33,000 ft. with both engines at cruise power, with no air-
you make sure it would be available to the people who have the craft systems warnings or cautions sounding, when both the
right to see that information?” cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorders abruptly
McMillan says the database will be populated with infor- stopped at 13:20:02 UTC.
mation from individual states and “substantive open-source According to the investigators, the distribution of pieces of
material” through an iterative learning process. “They’re go- the aircraft over a large area (10 X 5 km) “indicates that the
ing to go through this pilot to see what information is avail- aircraft broke up in the air.” Given that the forward part of
able now. The suspicion was that there’s more available than the fuselage was found closest to the last position captured on
people think there is.” A key to the success of the project will the flight data recorder, they conclude that it broke off first.
likely be the availability of reliable intelligence with a granu- But the center and aft parts of the aircraft “continued in a
larity that aids in a decision-making process about whether down and forward trajectory before breaking up.” c
to avoid or shut down airspace or airports. A major driver of
the schedule is to gather information from the pilot projects
before ICAO’s High Level Safety Conference in February. “All Transcript Read the transcript of MH17’s final telephone
the work has to be ready so final decisions can be taken,” and radio communications—tap here in the digital edition,
says McMillan. or go to AviationWeek.com/MH17ATC
The quick action on the task-force projects contrasts with
the slow progress of the accident investigation by the Dutch Report Read the Dutch Safety Board’s preliminary
Safety Board (DSB), which published its initial report on report on the MH17 accident at: ow.ly/BnwSM

One of the recommendations calls for the FAA to ban dive- role in the crash. Based on three types of weather reports
and-drive approaches, where a pilot manually controls the received in pre-flight, en route and terminal updates, the
descent via a series of step-down altitudes. A profile approach pilots expected they would break out of the cloud bank at
uses the FMC to create a smooth descent similar to a precision 1,000 ft. above the ground, well above the 550-ft. minimum
instrument approach, an option the FAA favors. Three other altitude for the approach. From analysis of airport video,
recommendations address the issue of improperly program- the NTSB determined that the actual ceiling at the time
ming, or sequencing, the FMC, including a call for the FAA to was 350 ft. The NTSB is recommending that a “remarks”
work with industry to devise “direct and conspicuous cues” section in those weather reports that indicated lower ceil-
when the device is programmed incorrectly and for Airbus to ings, but which had been deleted for various reasons, be
let pilots know when the vertical descent indicator, a cue that included in all future reports.
shows the pilots the aircraft’s vertical position in relation to Five of the 15 recommendations address the issue of fa-
the desired glideslope, might be misleading. tigue. Specifically, the NTSB is asking the FAA to require its
The NTSB also wants operators to update their Terrain principal-operations inspectors for air carriers, air taxis and
Awareness and Warning Systems, avionics that alert the business-jet fractional companies to make sure pilots “brief
pilots when descending too fast into terrain or approaching the threat of fatigue before each departure, particularly those
obstacles. The A300 carried a Honeywell Enhanced Ground occurring during the window of circadian low.” Strategies to
Proximity Warning System (EGPWS) that met FAA rules but combat fatigue could include changes in monitoring, lighting
was not equipped by UPS with the latest upgrades that could or exercise during a flight. The other four fatigue-related rec-
have provided automated call-outs of key altitudes, including ommendations—two for UPS and two for its pilot union—are
minimum descent altitude, and GPS input that would have directed at forging better fatigue risk management coordina-
given more timely warnings about encroaching terrain. tion between the two.
Flight 1354 received an EGPWS “sink rate” caution alert UPS objected to the focus on fatigue, saying the pilot had
after descending below minimums. The captain reacted to not flown in 10 days and the first officer was off eight of the
the aural alert by decreasing the descent rate to 400 fpm from previous 10 days. “We believe these facts—and others—don’t
1,500 fpm, but the change came too late. A “too low, terrain” support such a finding,” the carrier stated following the Sept. 9
alert sounded 1 sec. after the aircraft hit the first tree. The final hearing. c
conditions of the approach did not trigger the more urgent
“pull up” alert, says the NTSB. Report Read the NTSB’s accident investigation
Incomplete weather reports may also have played a documents at: ow.ly/BkXbi

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 37


AIR TRANSPORT

World Central yet rival Dubai in scope.


Dubai World Central initially opened
as a cargo airport in 2010. The first
In a major boost for Emirates, Dubai plans passenger flights began in late 2013;
the current terminal has capacity for
to substantially increase airport capacity only around five million passengers
annually. Early on, based on Emirates
Jens Flottau Frankfurt and Tony Osborne London astounding growth rate—close to
20% annually, the Dubai aviation com-
hat there would be an expansion have two ancillary terminals—built in munity recognized the need for a far

T of Al Maktoum International Air-


port at Dubai World Central, also
known as DWC, is not surprising, al-
a triple-plus-sign configuration (see
concept)—with a collective capacity of
120 million passengers. Each of the two
larger airport. Narrowbody operator
FlyDubai also added to the congestion.
Pressure was mounting for the gov-
though the scale and speed of the proj- additional terminals will be capable of ernment to make a decision to limit
ect are. If all goes as planned, DWC will accommodating 100 A380s. That ex- investment ahead of the transition of
be able to handle twice as many pas- pansion is to be completed in 6-8 years. Emirates to the new airport. President
sengers as other mega-airports being In its final phase, the airport will have Tim Clark has made clear his carrier
designed worldwide. five 4.5-km (2.79-mi.)-long runways. can only move to the new facility if
Passenger traffic at Dubai Interna- Passenger terminals will include west there is enough space to handle the
tional Airport is expected to reach 100 and east terminals and four additional entire operation; he does not want the
million or so by the end of 2020. And concourses. There will be 400 widebody airline’s hub compromised. Officials
Al Maktoum International—which is contact gates, 200 each for Code E and now say the speedy development will
now primarily a cargo airport with F aircraft. The A380, of which Emirates “pave the way for Emirates to relocate
their intercontinental hub operations
DUBAI AIRPORTS CONCEPT

to DWC by the mid-2020s.”


The exact timing is not yet defined
but if the project incurs any delays,
growth for Emirates could still be in-
hibited by capacity constraints at the
existing airport.
Development of the DWC facility had
been throttled back in the aftermath of
the global economic crisis; the number
of planned runways was scaled back
from six to five, and the passenger-
operation start date was deferred. The
airport benefited somewhat from the
80-day closure of Dubai International’s
northern runway for modifications,
which resulted in some traffic being
When its final phase is completed, Dubai’s DWC will be the world’s largest moved to Al Maktoum DWC.
airport with a passenger capacity of 260 million per year. Work continues at Dubai Interna-
tional with the construction of new
some passenger traffic—is being vastly has so far ordered 140, is in the Code F concourses for Terminal 3, used solely
expanded as part of the Dubai World category. by Emirates, and the construction of
Central development. Located in a Terminals and concourses will be Concourse D in the northwestern cor-
large economic area south of the city, linked by trains, and two metro lines ner of the airport, which will be used
the airport is being designed to accom- will streamline passage from the airport by other airlines and is due to open in
modate extensive passenger and cargo to the city. The entire development will 2015. The airport will have the capacity
growth in the coming years. encompass 56 sq. km. Two more ter- to handle 100 million passengers by the
The Dubai government last week minals in the same configuration could end of the decade.
outlined plans to invest $32 billion to also be built, if capacity warrants this. The intent is to keep Dubai Inter-
develop the DWC airport. Time-saving innovations including national open, even after Emirates
The project will radically change biometrics, iris and palm scanning, and eventually moves to DWC. Dubai In-
its shape and pave the way for it to radio-frequency identification (RFID) ternational likely will be a base for all
handle up to 360 million passengers a boarding cards will ease passenger other airlines, possibly even including
year between both Dubai International and baggage flow to an unprecedented FlyDubai, which cooperates with Emir-
and DWC; the latter is slated to handle extent, the operator claims. ates to a limited extent.
up to 260 million travelers per year on The new airport is by far the most Airspace congestion is already a
its envisioned five runways. ambitious project of its kind in the concern, so the plans for DWC make
The two-phase development is ex- works. Beijing, Mexico City (see page more efficient air traffic management
pected to create one of the largest 40) and Istanbul all have elaborate in the United Arab Emirates all the
airports in the world; it will initially projects in the pipeline, but none as more urgent. c

38 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


Turkish Airlines operates
Airbus A330s and Boeing
777s on long-haul routes and is
considering more widebodies.

Improvisation in Play

AIRBUS/A. DOUMENJOU
fleets are also geared to widebodies.
All three Gulf carriers can take ad-
vantage of airport expansion projects:
Turkish Airlines copes with rapid growth as it Doha just opened a new airport; the
midfield terminal in Abu Dhabi is un-
grapples with airport infrastructure constraints der construction; and Dubai’s World
Central Airport is operational.
Jens Flottau Istanbul Until Turkey’s new airport is avail-
able, Turkish needs to improvise. The
urkish Airlines is keeping its growth to 120 million passengers in carrier is developing Sabiha Gokcen—

T corporate eye on Oct. 29, 2017,


because by that date aircraft ap-
proaching Istanbul are meant to be
2023, the airline needs a new Istanbul
airport as soon as possible, otherwise
its expansion plans will remain just
on the Asian side of the city—into a
stronger base to deal with the capacity
constraints; it plans to retain it even af-
touching down on new runways built that—plans. ter the new facility is operational.
near the Black Sea. If this timeline is Construction of the greenfield com- Sabiha Gokcen has been predomi-
met, CEO Temel Kotil will have every plex has begun, but the timing is ex- nantly used by Turkey’s other airlines
reason to celebrate; if not, the airline tremely ambitious. Phase 1 will see a such as Pegasus, Sun Express, Anado-
is in trouble. capacity of 90 million passengers an- lujet and Atlas Air. Turkish’s move onto
Turkey’s flag carrier is at the center nually and three runways, but the air- the field has been relatively recent. But
of one of the most ambitious projects port is set to grow to six runways later “we are putting more aircraft there” to
in the global air transport industry. Its in the next decade, which would ulti- be able to keep growing in the country’s
majority shareholder, the Turkish gov- mately handle 150 million passengers. main economic center, Kotil says. There
ernment is determined to turn the air- Kotil believes that these ambitious are still capacity reserves at the second
line into one of the largest global play- goals can be met. He points out that airport, which is also getting a second
ers and, arguably, has come a long way the country’s five largest construction runway. According to Kotil, the airline
toward achieving that goal. It has been companies are involved with the proj- will also build up a system of connect-
growing at an average annual rate of ect and have vast global expertise in ing flights. The share of connecting
17% over the past 10 years; the growth projects of this size. Also, financing of passengers is approximately 15% “but
in transfer traffic has been even steeper the facility has now been cleared. is growing.” The CEO says even long-
at 22%. Turkish expects to carry close The new Istanbul airport will com- haul services from Sabiha Gokcen are
to 59.5 million passengers in 2014, up pete with other hubs in the region— conceivable, although this is still under
from 48.1 million last year. Dubai International and Abu Dhabi discussion.
But the carrier is at risk of becom- International in the United Arab Emir- Airports are not the only constraint
ing the victim of its own success. It ates, and Doha International, Qatar. the airline faces, it may have to de-
now handles approximately 800 daily What makes the new infrastructure so cide to order more aircraft soon. It
flights into and out of Ataturk Interna- crucial is that the Turkish network is has a large orderbook comprising 248
tional Airport, currently its main hub, mainly built on narrowbodies; around aircraft, heavily geared toward nar-
and cannot grow further. Delays are 20% of its aircraft are widebodies. rowbodies—117 Airbus A320s and 100
frequent and operations are complex, Building on smaller aircraft and fre- Boeing 737s are on order, including the
partly because the runways are angled quency means many more aircraft A320neo and the MAX. However, its
in such a way that they cannot be used movements for the same amount of widebody portfolio is a lot more limited,
independently. The complexity of the passengers. with another 18 Boeing 777-300ERs and
facility creates many inefficiencies, in Emirates has no narrowbodies, al- 13 A330s slated to arrive between now
particular at peak times when long though FlyDubai (which, although not and the end of 2017. After 2017, Turkish
queues of aircraft waiting to depart a part of Emirates, received help from Airlines needs additional widebody lift
build up. Nearly 50% of the carrier’s the major carrier initially) is by now and it has not yet placed an order for
Ataturk passengers connect through a large narrowbody operator, adding the latest-generation longhaul aircraft
the airport. to capacity constraints at Dubai Inter- such as the Boeing 787 or Airbus A350.
To be able to cope with its expected national. Qatar Airways and Etihad’s Its fleet plan sees the airline operat-

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 39


AIR TRANSPORT

ing 54 widebodies by the end of this


year, but that is projected to grow to
79 by the end of 2021.
Crossroad Policies
Kotil says no decision about an addi- As part of economic reform, Mexico invests in
tional order is imminent, arguing that
“we have time.” He believes Turkish aviation, builds a new airport in the capital city
could end up operating aircraft larger
than the 777-30ER, although “we nev- Jen Flottau and Madhu Unnikrishnan
er purchase aircraft because they are
larger—they have to be the right size.” rchitect Norman Foster knows lion of which is earmarked for the new
In fact, Turkish is focusing on maxi-
mizing the benefit of its narrowbod-
ies. The airline operates a 7-hr. Boeing
A a bit about symbols. So his
proposal for Mexico City’s new
airport centers around a big X-shaped
airport in the capital.
Even though the country is one of the
biggest in Latin America, its air trans-
737-900ER service from Istanbul to building, the single passenger terminal. port sector has not played the kind of
Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of X stands for crossroads and for hubs important role one might expect. A mix
the Congo. The aircraft is equipped in aviation terms. In Mexico, it also of poor regulation and infrastructure,
with additional fuel tanks, lie-flat seats stands for massive new investment in unclear general economic policies and
in business class and a long-haul con- a better aviation infrastructure. the high crime rate led to under-perfor-
figuration in economy, which reduces Foster and his Mexican partner mance of a sector that otherwise should
seating capacity to 151. Kotil says a lot Fernando Romero recently won the have been able to benefit from the size
of routes into Africa are at the edge award to build Mexico City’s new in- of the local population base as well as
of narrowbody-range capabilities, but ternational airport. The facility will its geographic location between North
make a lot of sense economically. “I’m replace Benito Juarez International and South America.
OK at 100 passengers,” he says. “There Airport, which will reach the limits of Other entities have, to an extent,
aren’t 200 passengers on those routes.” its design capacity this year. taken over the role of connecting traf-
Nevertheless, the carrier has been The new airport is expected to be fic in the region—including hubs in the
frequently named as a likely operator ready by 2018 or 2019. In its initial con- Southern part of the U.S., most promi-
of either the Airbus A380 or the Boe- figuration, three runways will provide nently among them Miami. Also, Copa
ing 747-8 when demand on its trunk airlines operating into Mexico valuable Airlines in Panama has built a highly
routes increases further over the com- additional slots at what is by far the successful connecting model with less
ing years. country’s biggest market. The facility benign fundamentals supporting it.
The rapid expansion has created is to be expanded to ultimately handle And reinvigorated Avianca, has taken
some bumps along the way. Turkish 120 million passengers—four times the
was able to grow revenues by 15% in current demand. It will use six runways.
the second quarter, but its operating The timing of that expansion has yet to
profit dropped by 17.5%, to $208 million. be defined and the local citizenry has al-
The airline has seen a cyclical develop- ready stated fierce opposition. A group
ment of its profits since 2006. Between of farmers were successful in 2001 in
2006-08 profit increased almost tenfold their efforts to stop a new airport, but
to $571 million, but then declined to $215 the government emphasizes that this
million in 2011. Recently, results have project is being built on federal land.
been improving. Turkish posted a $577 The fundamentals for aviation in
million operating profit in 2013. Mexico are beginning to change for
The combination of a decrease in the better. The country’s central bank
unit revenues and an increase in unit points out that economic growth has
costs were major drivers behind the recovered significantly in the second
recent quarterly dip. Maintenance; quarter of 2014. It expects the econo-
passenger services and catering; my to grow by 2.7% in 2014 and 3.7% in
sales and marketing; airport charges; 2015. Aviation usually benefits dispro-
air traffic control; as well as aircraft portionately from economic growth.
ownership and fuel costs all grew The central government under Pres-
faster than capacity, which the airline ident Enrique Pena Nieto has also been
expanded by 17.5%. On the revenue pushing for economic reform. One key
side, the airline took significant hits target is to attract more foreign inves-
on domestic yield (-10.6%) as it and its tors in big sectors. Mexico has already
low-fare affiliate Anadolujet launched become attractive for suppliers in the
a combined 23 new routes. Asia yields automotive and aerospace industries,
were also down by 6.7% as the airline and now the Pena Nieto government Architects Norman Foster and
put in 27.5% more capacity, which led is starting to introduce legislation en- Fernando Romero are designing a
to a lower yield in transfer traffic. That couraging investment in energy, elec- large X-shape structure as the core
effect will be there for the long term, tricity and telecommunications. of the new Mexico City airport.
as transfers will likely become an even Efforts include a $660 billion invest-
more important part of its model. c ment in infrastructure, around $9 bil-
UNIVERSALPIX
40 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst
an important share of LCCs, which operate
traffic, part of which narrowbody fleets
might otherwise have that can reach the
been controlled by a U.S., parts of Cana-
large Mexican carrier. da, and some points
But Mexico’s airline in South America. So
market has changed far, none of the LCCs
seismically in the four has revealed plans to
years since Mexicana diversify into wide-
de Aviacion declared body flying.
bankruptcy and Aeromexico has

EFEPHOTOS
ceased operations. a built-in advantage
An industry that in this, especially on
had effectively been lucrative flights to
split between it and Aeromexico has Mexico City’s current airport is the U.S. Due to a restrictive bilateral
since fragmented into one of the most operating at near capacity and air service agreement between the two
hotly contested aviation markets in the cannot be expanded. Aeromexico is countries, the number of carriers each
hemisphere, with a particularly vibrant the carrier most affected. country can designate to fly between
low-cost carrier (LCC) segment. In fact, city pairs is limited to two or three, de-
the rise of Interjet, VivaAerobus and serves more passengers than its LCC pending on the route. Aeromexico and
Volaris, all founded in the middle of the competitors, but the gap between it Mexicana hold most of the Mexican
last decade, is what pushed teetering and second-ranked Interjet is narrow- designations, but carriers that want to
Mexicana into insolvency. ing every year, the data show. operate Mexicana’s routes can apply for
Those LCCs have more than filled However, Aeromexico still com- permission from the SCT and the U.S.
the vacuum left by Mexicana’s demise. mands half of the country’s total sched- Transportation Department. Such per-
In fact, the Mexican aviation market is uled international traffic, and this is mission is granted if or until Mexicana
larger now, in both capacity and traffic, where CEO Andres Conesa says op- revives to viably operate the routes.
than it was in 2010, according to data portunity lies. The carrier will focus on This is one of the reasons that Mexi-
from the Secretaria de Comunicacio- long-haul international flying and on de- cana remains relevant, even though it
nes y Transportes (SCT), the country’s veloping its route network in North and ceased operations in 2010. Although
transportation regulator. The data South America and Europe. Long-haul a bankruptcy judge earlier this year
from July reveal that Aeromexico still flying remains beyond the scope of the ended—for lack of credible inves-
tors—Mexicana’s attempts to return to
operations, the airline’s assets, which
include its route authorities, slots,
counter space and gates at Mexico
City’s main airport, and an MRO op-
eration remain in the company’s pos-
session until all appeals are exhausted.
Mexicana’s unions have said they plan
to appeal the bankruptcy judge’s de-
cree and will fight to revive the airline,
leaving its assets in limbo in the mean-
time.
Aeromexico is in transition on the
fleet side as it takes delivery of more
Boeing 787s. The airline operates five
787-8s along with four 777-200ERs and
five 767-300ERs. The 787s are mainly
used for European services, which the
airline says it intends to grow, and on
the Mexico City-New York route. The
airline plans to build capacity by up
to 15% in 2014; given strong domes-
tic and short-haul competition, that
expansion is mainly driven by long-
haul flying. Aeromexico has firm or-
ders for six 787-9s and options for
four, giving it the potential for more
widebody capacity. It has also bought
60 737 MAXs it can use for its U.S.
operations and into the northern part
of Latin America. c

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 41


AIRPOWER

More for Less budget request. But the savings are ex-
pected to come in the annual operat-
ing cost of the aircraft: The E-8C would
require about $650 million in work
USAF embraces ‘art of the available’ to meet requirements in the coming
years, according to Jennifer Cassidy,
with ground surveillance aircraft an Air Force spokeswoman.
The platforms that housed the side-
Amy Butler Melbourne, Florida, and Washington looking AN/APY-7 radars were old
707-300s purchased from airlines and
ometimes you have to spend money to save money.

S
outfitted by Northrop Grumman with
This has been a theme for the U.S. Air Force’s on-again, the sensors and onboard work sta-
tions as well as supporting computer
off-again desire to replace its air-ground surveillance fleet equipment. It was a thorny project,
for years. And this philosophy continues to bolster the service’s as each separate platform had its
newest fleet replacement plan. own aging and wear-and-tear issues.
Twenty years later, the platform and
The discussion started more than a tially risky development work. Likely its legacy computers, displays and
decade ago with a defunct and costly candidates range from the Gulfstream radar are proving troublesome due to
plan to reengine the E-8C Joint Sur- 550 to the Boeing 737-700. diminishing sources for parts and age
veillance Target Attack Radar System Born out of once disparate Air Force of the equipment. The only commercial
(Joint Stars or Jstars) aircraft; 16 of and U.S. Army projects, Joint Stars was operator still listing the 707-300 in its
the four-engine Boeing 707s are now always a bit of an outcast, never consis- fleet is Iran’s Meraj Air.
in inventory after one was removed tently championed by the leadership of The replacement program is ex-
from the fleet due to an inflight refu- pected to save 28% in operations and
eling incident. Proponents hailed the
merits of more efficient propulsion;
opponents said the cost was too great
to justify the capability improvements.
Joint Stars manufacturer Northrop
Grumman and engine maker Pratt &
Whitney fought for years to maintain
congressional interest. But the project either service.
eventually cratered due to lack of in- The Air Force
terest by the Air Force, which funded eventually won
higher-priority projects. command of the
In the meantime, the discussion program, though it has
turned to a “me-too” project to make always had Army par-
use of the same Boeing 767 eyed for ticipation, as the primary
the original KC-135 replacement pro- mission is ground-moving-
gram as a platform for the air-ground target indications (GMTI) or
surveillance mission. The so-called monitoring ground movements using
E-10—the brainchild of then-Chief of the 24-ft. APY-7 radar mounted under
Staff Gen. John Jumper—would have its fuselage. Considered a support sys-
been a massive air operations center in tem for the Army, much of the Air Force
the sky. That idea, along with Boeing’s community has tolerated the project
original bloated tanker lease proposal, but not rushed to advocate for it over Northrop Grumman has flown more
sank under its own cost, unrealistic funding for fighters or bombers. than 500 hr. of tests in its airborne
expectations and association with the Joint Stars got its big break during G550 testbed to experiment with
procurement missteps of the sordid Operation Desert Storm in 1991 when various radars. It is also exploring
tanker replacement plan. the then-experimental Joint Stars air- new workstation concepts in order
Now, perhaps as a sign of the times craft was used to direct fire on Iraqi to reduce the number of crew from
or the result of a dose of reality, the forces in the Battle of Khafji, resulting 18 in today’s Joint Stars to eight in
Air Force has decided to downsize to a in what was dubbed the “Highway of the next-generation system.
business jet. The service hopes to field Death.” Using aerial surveillance dur-
the first four Joint Stars replacement ing the battle, coalition forces destroyed sustainment funding, a cost avoidance
aircraft in fiscal 2022 to take advan- 600 armored vehicles and tanks, achiev- of $200-500 million annually. “The cur-
tage of advances in available comput- ing a decisive victory and bolstering the rent Jstars Recap Program Office es-
ing, sensor and display technology case for the use of synthetic aperture timates show a return on investment
and, despite using a business-jet-sized radar for airborne ground surveillance. between fiscal year 2028 and 2030,”
aircraft, to match or improve on the The Air Force expects to spend Cassidy says. Service officials pro-
Northrop Grumman E-8C’s capability. about $4.3 billion buying 17 new Joint vided written information rather than
The goal is to avoid costly and poten- Stars aircraft based on its fiscal 2015 discussing their plans in an interview.

42 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


The shift to a new, smaller Joint Stars The Air Force is sticking to the man- ning assuming this so-called seques-
may be indicative of the current defense tra of buying the “art of the available” tration will not take effect. Thus, Joint
spending environment. Former Chief of versus the “art of the possible.” Known Stars is on the books, and a risk-reduc-
Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz champi- for pushing the technological edge, the tion effort is slated for the first quarter
oned the new Joint Stars program focus service is having to curb its appetite of 2015, which begins next month.
after a service analysis of alternatives for such new platforms as the KC-46, So the overarching principles for
demonstrated that a smaller platform Long-Range Strike Bomber and now the Air Force moving forward are to
could provide both reduced operat- next-generation Joint Stars because keep the Joint Stars replacement’s
ing cost and the high altitudes neces- the lion’s share of its development price reasonable and on schedule (in
sary to offer optimum look angles for money—and risk—is obligated to the order to begin reaping cost-avoidance
the radar. Israeli and British systems F-35 program. benefits on time).
designed for similar ground surveil- Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Mark This echoes the strategy for the KC-
lance missions proved that a business Welsh says he wants to begin replac- 135 replacement program, for which
jet could house such a sensor. “In fact, ing the existing Joint Stars fleet and the Air Force ultimately selected
there are machines flying that perform the T-38 fast-jet trainer fleet within Boeing’s 767-2C-based tanker after
this role, and the Air Force would like the next decade. These projects are in a low-cost duel against Airbus (then
to have a minimally developmental pro- addition to the “sacred three” service EADS). As with any program based
gram,” Schwartz says. Miniaturization priorities: the F-35A, single-engine, on low cost, platform size is key for
in the sensor technology bolsters the stealthy fighter; a new bomber; and a prime contractors.
argument that a smaller platform is KC-135 replacement. Welsh says there Boeing and Northrop Grumman
sufficient, he adds. Fundamentally, the is money in the budget to do all of this are likely to be the top competitors for
question for the program now is wheth- if Congress revokes the mandatory the Joint Stars replacement. L-3 Com-
er fewer workstations—and thereby a spending cuts for fiscal 2016 included in munications, Sierra Nevada Corp. and
smaller battle management crew—can law. As with previous years, the Penta- Raytheon have experience overseeing
carry the workload of today’s Jstars. gon is proceeding with its budget plan- commercial-to-military conversions

NORTHROP GRUMMAN PHOTOS

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 43


AIRPOWER

for intelligence aircraft, but they have Because the service is planning to Joint Stars. The company has been ex-
not declared an intent to bid for the draw on available technology, tough ploring various configurations and sen-
work. Raytheon, which oversees the lessons from the troubled develop- sors and has operated the G550 with
U.K. Royal Air Force’s Sentinel ground ment of MP-RTIP and the APY-7 are mission systems for more than 500 hr.
surveillance aircraft based on the Bom- irrelevant, Powlen says. More crucial on its own dime for risk reduction, ac-
bardier Global Express, is considering will be the integration of the sensor cording to a program source.
a potential prime bid. But its heavi- onto the platform, choice of the right Metzger says the company has not
est focus is on posturing for the sen- platform for the price and selection of settled on the G550 as its platform for
sor work, says Jerry Powlen, general a battle management and command- the system yet because the formal re-
manager for intelligence, surveillance and-control (BMC2) system operated quest for proposals and requirements
and reconnaissance at Raytheon. The by onboard operators. have not been issued. But since the
company provides the primary ra- Northrop Grumman sees Joint Stars G550 is the smallest likely business jet
dar sensor for the Navy’s P-8 and the as a critical defense franchise to keep candidate for the next-gen Joint Stars
dismount detection radar for the Air in house. Thus the company has been project, Metzger says the team hopes
Force’s Reaper, and it has a substantial flying its G550 experimental aircraft— to tackle it so that if a larger platform
part of the work—shared with rival until now kept secret—with various is eventually selected, integration will
Northrop Grumman—for the Multi- candidate radars and battle manage- actually be easier than expected. “The
Platform Radar Technology Insertion ment and command-and-control test- G550 is the hardest solution” to design
Program (MP-RTIP) sensor slated for beds for more than two years, says to, he tells Aviation Week.
operation on the Global Hawk Block 40 Alan Metzger, Northrop Grumman vice The most prominent external fea-
unmanned aircraft. president of program management for tures of the experimental G550 are
two heat exchangers, one on either
side of the aircraft, and the obvious,
Joint Stars Platform Sizes 14-ft. canoe for housing the radar un-
Boeing E-8C Boeing 737-700/BBJ1 Gulfstream G650
der the fuselage.
The Air Force’s intent is to buy a
system with as much existing technol-
ogy as possible in order to reduce the
Length 99.75 ft.
Length 110.3 ft.

development cost of a Jstars replace-


ment. As with any military aircraft
Length 152.9 ft.

program, a smaller platform is gener-


ally less expensive to buy and operate,
so Northrop’s strategy is to embrace
Width 99.6 ft. the goal of a business jet. Powlen says
Width 117.5 ft. the question for a business jet is “can
G550
it carry the payload?” He notes that
Length 96.5 ft.

while “it has size, weight and power


Width 145.8 ft. limitations, a bigger jet may not be af-
fordable.”
Source: Boeing Platform fuselage diagrams are to scale
Because the Air Force intends to
use existing technologies for the ra-
Width 93.5 ft. dar and BMC2 system, the challenge
for the primes will be to integrate the

Compared to the E-8C (below)


based on the Boeing 707-700, the
options being explored for a future
Joint Stars are far smaller.

U.S. AIR FORCE


44 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst
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AIRPOWER

mission systems on the airframe with- stations, Boeing officials say they are are advantages for the team, Meren-
out reducing operational effectiveness. not flying prototype hardware. “We are da says, because they would allow for
Joint Stars has 18 onboard crew work- very confident we can go from integra- more workstations and crew.
stations; a G550-sized aircraft would tion to flying an airplane very quickly” However, Boeing could find itself in
allow for up to eight. if Boeing wins a contract, Merenda the position of arguing that more is bet-
Metzger and his competitor, Rod says. He bases his confidence on the ter with the Joint Stars competition,
Merenda, Boeing’s business develop- work done to support the Navy P-8 and as the 737-700’s excess onboard space
ment vice president for the program, Air Force KC-46. could be too much for the Air Force.
agree that automation and computing Boeing abandoned earlier plans to A determining factor for the com-
technology can justify a smaller crew morph the Navy P-8, housed on a 737- petition will be whether the Air Force
complement in a new Joint Stars air- 800 (AW&ST Sept. 13, 2010, p. 44), in grades excess capacity and room for
craft. Both are working on prototype favor of bidding the smaller 737-700, growth, and if so, how. In the case of
designs to take advantage of the vast Merenda says. This is in part because the KC-135 replacement competition,
advances in human-machine interface the Air Force already operates this Boeing’s 767 won over the larger Air-
technologies as well as automation of variant in its C-40 executive transport. bus A330 design because the greater
some tasks now handled manually by The 737-700 has already been certified capacity offered by the bigger airframe
Joint Stars crew. for aerial refueling, as well. But Boeing ultimately cost too much. By offering
Air Combat Command chief Gen. does plan to use the P-8’s baseline en- the 737-700, Boeing will be on the op-
Mike Hostage says airborne BMC2 gine, the CFM56, for its next-gen Joint posite side of this argument, forced to
crews will play larger roles as the threat Stars bid, Merenda says. justify the value of extra space.
of compromised communications links The 737-700 is about 15 ft. closer in Air Force officials have not yet re-
grows in the battlefield of the future. A size to a business jet than the G550. The leased their acquisition strategy or
commander must be able to dissemi- green aircraft would roll off Boeing’s ex- outlined source-selection criteria.
nate his intent and rely on forward isting 737 line in Renton, Washington. Service officials plan to award risk-
operating airmen to execute it even if As with the company’s winning bid for reduction contracts by the end of the
communications are compromised, he the KC-135 replacement program, Me- year to “demonstrate that mature
says. The interconnectedness of the renda says Boeing would combine the technologies currently exist and prove
U.S. fleet is a force multiplier as well military modification experience of its the technologies can be efficiently and
as a vulnerability, he says. However, he defense division with the cost-conscious effectively recapitalized within the
says: “I believe [adversaries] will break mind-set of its commercial airliners sec- parameters of the Jstars Recap Pro-
the link between the [combined forces tor for a proposal. gram Office’s cost, schedule and per-
air component commander and his Critics say the 737-700 is too big, but formance requirements.”
forces] episodically.” Merenda notes that it is only a bit more If successful, the Air Force plans to
While Northrop Grumman con- than 10 ft. longer than the G550 and award a contract for full-scale develop-
tinues to experiment with different G650. The more noticeable difference ment in the third quarter of fiscal 2015,
radars and battle management work- is in width and fuselage size. But these roughly a year from now. c

Boeing is now focused on housing its


next-generation Joint Stars on the
737-700. The company previously
considered the 737-800 on which the
U.S. Navy’s P-8 is based.

BOEING CONCEPT

46 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


Long-Range
Plans
China may follow Russia
in bomber developments
Bill Sweetman and Richard D. Fisher

VIA INTERNET
Washington
hile the U.S. Air Force pursues development of

W the Long-Range Strike Bomber project, striving to


launch full-scale development next year, both Rus-
sia and China are also proceeding with bomber plans. In the
Raduga Kh-101/-102 ALCMs are too
long for the Tu-95 bomb bay, so they
case of Russia, the PAK-DA (perspektivnyi aviatsionnyi kom-
pleks dal’ney aviatsii, or future long-range air system) is the are carried on underwing pylons.
first all-new bomber to start development since the Tupolev
Tu-160, in 1977, while China’s prospective new system would the Tu-160s would be modernized by 2020 and redesignated
be the nation’s first indigenous bomber. Tu-160M. This followed a 2009 decision to update the Tu-95
PAK-DA is under development by the Tupolev unit of fleet, under the designation Tu-95MSM. Both upgrade pro-
United Aircraft Corp. (UAC), which has been responsible grams are extensive, featuring new radars—from the same
for almost all of Russia’s long-range bombers since the end Leninets series used on the Su-34—and improvements to
of World War II. The basic decision to pursue development of electronic warfare, displays and processors, which currently
a new bomber was taken in 2007. At that point, the Russian use 1980s technology. The Tu-160M was reported to be ready
military started to define upgrades to the existing bomber for state acceptance trials at the end of 2013.
force, which would bridge the gap until a new aircraft could The upgrades also include life extension, which covers in-
be ready, alongside an analysis of alternative configurations vestment in new engine overhaul capabilities, the renewed
and approaches. production of NK-32 engines for the Tu-160 and the design of
Out of dozens of potential candidates, including supersonic a longer-life, more reliable engine variant. In 2010 the Russian
and hypersonic technologies, four finalists emerged, and a government announced an investment of more than 8 billion
preferred design—featuring a subsonic all-wing or blended- rubles ($220 million) for this program through 2020. The pre-
wing body with stealth characteristics—was submitted to production batch of new NK-32 engines is expected to be ready
the customer in early 2012. It is likely to be the first Russian in 2016. These upgrades also will provide the foundation for
aircraft designed with all-aspect, broadband stealth—the key the PAK-DA’s engine.
feature introduced by the B-2 when it entered service in 1997. Both bombers are being armed with a longer-range air-
It was reported late last year that a final decision to build launched cruise missile (ALCM). Russia has had two major
PAK-DA had been taken, with work to start in 2014. UAC has ALCM projects since the early 2000s, both from the Radu-
now been awarded the design and integration contract for ga division of Tactical Missiles Corp. The Kh-555 is a con-
the PAK-DA, and the bomber is due to make its first flight in ventionally armed ALCM produced by modification of the
2019, with final assembly to take place at UAC’s Kazan plant. 1980s-era Kh-55 nuclear weapon, with a combined inertial,
It is expected to complete its state acceptance tests in 2023 radar-based terrain matching and infrared scene-matching
and enter service in 2023-25, according to the most reliable guidance system.
Russian reports. Earlier this year, United Engine Corp.’s JSC The same company’s all-new and larger Kh-101/-102 (con-
Kuznetsov unit, which has powered most of Tupolev’s bomb- ventional and nuclear versions respectively) is now in full
ers, was selected to develop the PAK-DA’s engine, based on production. The Tu-160 can carry 12 weapons internally and
components from the Tu-160’s NK-32 afterburning turbofan. the Tu-95MS can carry eight, on four dual-wing pylons. It is
Beyond that, very little about PAK-DA has been released. the largest ALCM in use, with launch weight estimated at
However, it is possible to make some educated guesses about up to 5,300 lb. Originally planned to be an ultra-long-range
the program, based on the size and shape of the Russian missile with a prop-fan power unit, it now has a turbofan on
bomber force and the new aircraft’s likely missions. a retractable mount, similar to the Kh-55. The current in-
The current long-range bomber force comprises a scant ventory of long-range cruise missiles numbers 850 weapons.
squadron of Tu-160s (a total force of 13 aircraft), 63 subsonic This extensive upgrade work indicates that the older
Tu-95MSs, built in the early 1980s as cruise-missile carri- bombers are expected to serve for at least 5-10 years after
ers (31 are MS16 versions with underwing pylons, and 32 the PAK-DA enters service, with the new aircraft presumably
are MS6s without), and a diminishing number of Tu-22M3 being assigned the role of a penetrating bomber.
Backfires, most of them originally built to attack U.S. aircraft The announcement that the new bomber’s engine is to be
carriers and their supporting groups. The Tu-22M3 force based on the NK-32, together with the fact that Russian bomb-
assigned to theater-range land-attack missions is being re- ers traditionally rely less on inflight refueling than the U.S.
placed by the smaller but more versatile Sukhoi Su-34. Air Force’s designs, points to a large aircraft. The NK-32 is a
The Russian defense ministry announced in early 2012 that three-shaft, low-bypass-ratio engine that produces 31,000-lb.

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 47


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AIRPOWER

thrust in military power and 55,000-lb. thrust with afterburn- informal Chinese sources to have been under development
ing. The variant being developed for the PAK-DA will be a since the mid-to-late 1990s. Chinese determination to proceed
non-afterburning engine, possibly with a slightly increased was likely strengthened by the use of the Northrop Grumman
bypass ratio. Four such engines would indicate a gross weight B-2 in the mistaken bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Bel-
of 200 metric tons, larger than the B-2 (and most likely much grade on May 7, 1999. It is also unclear how much data about
bigger than LRS-B), corresponding to a greater weapon load the B-2 China was able to obtain from Northrop Grumman en-
and range. gineer Noshir Gowadia, who, in his 18 years with the company,
Meanwhile, China is reportedly working on a new bomber. was one of the principal designers of the B-2’s low-observable
It is tempting to discount China’s ambitions to build a world- propulsion system. In January 2011 he received a 32-year sen-
class strategic strike aircraft given that its People’s Libera- tence for conveying military secrets to China.
tion Army Air Force (Plaaf) and Naval Air Force (PLAN-AF) The Xian Aircraft Corp. (XAC), the PLA’s
seem content to fly successive versions of the Soviet-era Tu- main large military aircraft manufacturer,
polev Tu-16. This medium bomber first flew in 1952 and then is most likely the lead contractor for the new
in China in 1959, sub- bomber. Like the next-
sequently built by the generation bomb -
Xian Aircraft Corp.
The Tupolev Tu-160M upgrade ers from Russia and
(XAC) as the Hong- program will keep the supersonic the U.S., the H-20 is
6 (Bomber-6, H-6). bomber in service through the expected to use
However, continued 2030s. a subsonic low-
improvements and observable “flying
production of wing” configura-
the H-6 show tion.
that China retains Interesting
an interest in long- but unofficial
range airpower. indications have
China’s government also been provided by
and People’s Libera- PLA academics. Chi-
t i o n A r my ( P L A ) nese media reports
say virtually nothing from October 2013
WIKIMEDIA
about their future quote Plaaf Col. Wu
bomber ambitions, but an accumulation of “gray data” plus Guohui, an associate professor at the
a recent revelation indicate it is likely that China is develop- National Defense University, saying
ing a new bomber. Last April an Asian government source stealth bombers had received “re-
disclosed an estimate that China’s next-generation bomber, newed national attention” and that “in the past China has
called H-20, would emerge by 2025. been weak regarding bombers, but in the future will develop
Such timing for the emergence of the H-20 would be con- long-range strike aircraft.”
sistent with two evolving Chinese strategic objectives. A new National Defense University Associate Prof. Fu Guangwen
bomber would extend China’s ability to deny strategic access noted in a December 2013 interview that bomber develop-
to the U.S. well beyond the “first island chain,” extending ment in China faces several obstacles, including challenges in
through Japan, Taiwan and the northern Philippines and developing engines and effective materials. But he then noted
encompassing the northern and southern China Sea. that a future Chinese bomber should be able to cover targets
Secondly, this aircraft would aid the Chinese leadership’s out to the second island chain, Guam, the South China Sea
ambitions to project military power. Such a platform would and India; be stealthy to improve penetration capability; be
allow the Chinese air force to complement the gathering capable of “information confrontation,” or cyber/electronic
global aircraft carrier and amphibious projection capabili- warfare; and have conventional and nuclear strike capability.
ties of the nation’s navy. A January 2014 Sina.com article cited an Aviation Indus-
China’s next-generation bomber has long been rumored by try Corp. of China publication, stating that design work on
VIA INTERNET

The Xian H-6K is a radically


modernized aircraft retaining the basic
airframe of the 1950s Tu-16 design.

50 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


VIA INTERNET
China is starting the process of
improving its air tanker fleet with
the acquisition of Ilyushin Il-78s.

a future Chinese stealth bomber had started in 2008. This The H-6K is fitted with the Russian-supplied 26,500-lb.-
report also noted that this bomber was likely a flying wing thrust UEC-Saturn D-30KP-2 turbofan, which is approxi-
and that it would have the range to strike the U.S. West Coast. mately 30% more powerful than the 1950s-vintage turbojets
Though it falls under the category of ambiguous “gray of the earlier versions and is more efficient, with a higher
data,” in early 2013 an image from a Chinese academic engi- bypass ratio (2.24:1) than the JT8D-200. This increases com-
neering journal showed a potential bomber shape very simi- bat radius to a reported 3,500 km (2,175 mi.). Emerging in
lar to the B-2. In early 2014 another Chinese image emerged early 2006, the H-6K replaced the old glazed nose with a
of two bat-wing-shaped model aircraft, possible radio-con- large radome and electro-optical targeting sensor. The air-
trolled models for test purposes. There is no other informa- craft featured a modern glass cockpit and gained six wing
tion to connect these models to ongoing programs, but it pylons to carry new 1,500-2,000-km-range CJ-10/KD-20 land-
is well established that China formally previews models of attack cruise missiles. This version is likely able to use the
future military aircraft, while leaked model images are often great variety of precision-guided bombs now produced by
aimed at domestic and foreign audiences. four Chinese companies.
The later models could also represent new long-range un- China has also upgraded older H-6s. The air force’s three
manned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) shapes, which also regiments of H-6Gs may soon be armed with the new super-
highlights the potential for China to develop long-range un- sonic ramjet-powered YJ-12 anti-ship missile with an esti-
manned strike aircraft. With some fanfare in the Chinese mated range of 400 km. The Plaaf’s older H-6Ms are being
media, the flying swept wing LiJian (Sharp Sword) UCAV, a upgraded to carry two CJ-10/KD-20 land-attack cruise mis-
collaborative product of the Shenyang and Hongdu compa- siles. The previously mentioned Asian government source
nies, took to the air Nov. 20, 2013. Similar in size and shape notes that the PLA has 130 H-6s in 2014, but this number
to the Boeing X-45C, indications are that LiJian has provided could grow to 180 by 2020. This could indicate a longer pro-
the basis for longer-wingspan UAV/UCAVs from Shenyang/ duction run for the H-6K, which currently serves in two Plaaf
Hongdu, some Chinese sources suggest. It is conceivable that regiments.
Xian might eventually develop an unmanned version of the The future of long-range strategic bombing for the PLA is
H-20, especially if Russia and the U.S. were to so develop also tied to the development of efficient aerial refueling tank-
their new bombers. ers. In March-April, the Plaaf modestly increased its refuel-
Possible Chinese interest in a new supersonic regional ing platforms with the acquisition of three Ilyushin Il-76MDs
bomber was signaled in the early May 2013 emergence of a that had been converted to Il-78 tankers in Ukraine. These
model of a new low-observable-shaped twin-engine bomber, carry up to three of the Russian UPAZ drogue-hose refuel-
which appeared next to a model of the known LiJian. With ing system, whereas the previous fleet of approximately 24
an estimated length of 25-30 meters (82-98 ft.), this bomber converted H-6U tankers carry much less fuel and have only
appears to approach the late-1950s Convair B-58 (the largest two hose-drogue units. These are the RDC-1 design, derived
Western purpose-built supersonic bomber to enter service) from the British Flight Refueling Ltd. (now Cobham) FRL Mk
in size. However, available information cannot confirm wheth- 32 acquired in the mid-1980s.
er it is an active program, the loser of a previous competition Future tanker platforms may include converted Xian Y-20
or an unfunded concept. heavy transports, versions of the Comac C919 airliner, or a
Although PAK-DA is overtly a strategic deterrent system variant of the future widebody transport that has been a sub-
with the aim of holding U.S. targets at risk, it is unlikely that ject of Russia-China collaborative discussions.
any new Chinese bomber would be intended for a paral- But to make future tankers more efficient, and more com-
lel role. However, a long-range, survivable platform with a patible with larger aircraft, China may also be evaluating fly-
large missile payload would be a powerful regional asset to ing-boom refueling systems capable of higher transfer rates.
threaten adversary land bases and naval forces, particularly In a 2013 conference paper, three engineers from the School
in conjunction with supersonic, stealthy J-20 fighter/strike of Electronics and Information at the Northwest Polytechni-
aircraft. cal University proposed using differential signals from the
The PLA continues to develop new versions of the H-6 and Chinese Beidou navigation satellite system combined with
to upgrade older models with new weapons. Likely spurred optical systems to create an automated control system ap-
by early 1990s Russian refusals to sell the Tupolev Tu-22M3 plicable to hose-and-drogue or flying-boom aerial refueling
(although requests were definitely conveyed by the 2003-04 systems. c
period), the PLA opted to develop a radically upgraded ver-
sion of the H-6. With Maxim Pyadushkin in Moscow.

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 51


DEFENSE

Target Practice
Black Dart exercise tests
how to counter UAVs

Eric Tegler Naval Base Ventura County, California

uring the last decade, as unmanned aircraft have pro-

ERIC TEGLER
The MQM-170 Outlaw, a training UAV, serves as a
liferated within U.S. defense forces, the military has target surrogate to simulate a range of threats.
also conducted classified exercises on how to counter
threats from UAVs. In all, Black Dart was to test 85 systems from UAVs to
Black Dart, the military’s large-scale, live counter-un- active and passive sensors and evaluate multiple negation
manned aerial system (CUAS)/air defense exercise, takes strategies, kinetic and non-kinetic. According to Navy Capt.
place within and around Naval Base Ventura County, Cali- Andy Arnold, chief of Jiamdo’s Capabilities Assessment Div.,
fornia (formerly NAS Point Mugu, merged with the adjacent electronic warfare is a focus of this year’s Black Dart. He
Port Hueneme Naval Base and San Nicholas Island). Since it would not say what other directed-energy (lasers, electro-
began in 2004, it has been closed to media. magnetic pulse) evaluation might take place.
But in July, the exercise drew representatives from every “We’re looking at multiple lines of effort, multiple negation
U.S. military service, U.S. Customs & Border Patrol, defense strategies,” Arnold explains. “While we’re focused on counter
contractors, military research and development outfits and UAS [unmanned aerial systems], Black Dart is germane to
foreign governments—and, for the first time, the news media. integrated air and missile defense at large.”
Black Dart is run by the Joint Integrated Air & Missile South of the flight line along a 5-mi. stretch of beach, nu-
Defense Organization for the Office of the Chairman of the merous active/passive sensor and telemetry systems set up
Joint Chiefs of Staff. This year, the organization allocated $4 for Black Dart face the Pacific Ocean. They are complement-
million for the week-long exercise, a fraction of its total cost. ed by the existing instrumentation at Point Mugu, including
Each of the services funded its own participation, the bill an impressive array on Laguna Peak, a mountain just east
for which must be impressive, considering the assets sent of the field.
to Black Dart. The resident Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Div.
U.S. Navy platforms included E-2C/D Hawkeye and MH-
60R aircraft as well as the USS Mobile Bay (CG-53) and the BUSINESS
Littoral Combat Ship USS Coronado (LCS-4). The U.S. Air
Force sent an array of tactical and command and control (C2)
aircraft, including F-22s, F-15/16s, A-10s, E-3 AWACS, MQ-9
Reapers and more. The U.S. Army provided several of its
Heavy Metal
UAVs, including the RQ-7 Shadow, as well as AH-64 Apache
helicopters. The U.S. Marine Corps supplied Black Dart’s air-
Titanium supply concerns weigh
to-ground C2 in the form of Yuma, Arizona-based Marine Air
Control Sqdn. 1 (MACS-1). There were more unseen moving
on Western manufacturers
pieces from the services and contractors. Michael Bruno Washington
Along the flight line on the northern side of the naval air
station, a grouping of nondescript trailers, RVs, two Marine ith reports of Russian military personnel all but
UAV control vehicles and a makeshift air traffic control run
from an air show control trailer house the equipment and
people providing UAV threats for the exercise.
W formally invading eastern Ukraine in recent weeks,
concerns are mounting in the aerospace and defense
(A&D) industry over titanium, and there seems no relief is in
Every so often a UAV takes off, from hand-launched RQ-11 sight.
Ravens to an Office of Naval Research-sponsored Tigershark The issue is price, or more accurately, the question as to
complete with its own payload of miniature UAVs. Media whether prices for titanium could climb if Russian supply to
were permitted to see target surrogates, training UAVs like the West’s A&D sector is restricted—which nonetheless has
the MQM-170 Outlaw and the Air Force Research Labora- not happened yet. But with the Obama administration and
tory’s 200-kt.-capable Hivast UAV. They fly a variety of pro- European leaders promising new sanctions on the heels of
files and simulate a range of threats. Some act as sensor the NATO summit in Wales earlier this month, the possibility
targets, others as jammers, and still others are sent out to continues to haunt industry.
be targeted and destroyed. In the latest update to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s so-called

52 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


ERIC TEGLER
(Nawcwd) controls a 100 X 250-mi. expanse of ocean north
of Point Mugu, including the instrumented San Nicholas and
Santa Cruz islands. Add to these the land range at China
Lake to the northeast and the sensors at Vandenburg AFB
to the north.
Opportunities for multiple test events and scenarios are
unparalleled. Raytheon placed a team with its developmental
AI3 interceptor missile on San Nicholas in the direction of The Yuma, Arizona-
which the Navy was firing BQM-34 target drones. based Marine Air
“We transitioned Black Dart to Point Mugu [in 2010] be- Control Sqdn. 1 provided
cause our goal is to develop joint warfare capabilities and command and control
here you’ve got a naval air station with a land-sea interface,”
for the exercise.
says Navy Lt. Cmdr. Shane Tanner. Tanner, a former E-2C
flight officer, is a Black Dart program lead, who says 10 years
after it began, the exercise still has a “science fair” feel to it.
“You’re seeing us search for the combination of new techni-
cal solutions to CUAS and ways to possibly employ current
[systems] in a new way. We try to fuse the two.”
The exercise also breeds valuable cross-cultural interaction.
“What’s unique is that we have operators working through
the scenarios we provide here alongside engineers,” Tanner
says. “That way, feedback happens almost instantaneously.
The guys who are building the gear get to see how the op-
erators are employing it. We capitalize on that interaction.”
Air Force Lt. Col. Paul Wilkerson is the joint test director
for an office that aims to capitalize on techniques to detect/
track/ID low, slow, small UAVs. “Their size and speed are
problems we’re not used to,” he allows. ment commander, Col. Steve Walker, discusses the variety of
His office is in search of “non-material solutions,” or prob- air defense scenarios, including CUAS, that his soldiers are
lem-solving that does not require acquiring new systems. able to test themselves against.
One of the mantras of Black Dart is the cost-asymmetry that Farther down the beach, one of only two extant Northrop
characterizes CUAS. Cheap UAVs absolutely must be coun- Grumman G/ATOR (Ground/Air Task Oriented Radar) ac-
tered cost-effectively. tive, electronically scanned array radars is in action. The
More broadly, Black Dart is a rare opportunity for multilay- system recently passed Milestone C, Major Chris Stevenson
er operational training, allowing the services to gain valuable from the Marines’ G/ATOR program office confirms.
acumen while refining tactics, techniques and procedures. “Black Dart’s a great opportunity to see a whole threat set
On a hill overlooking the ocean, the 263rd Army Air & Mis- that the Marine Corps honestly couldn’t afford to [arrange]
sile Defense Command has set up a Sentinel radar. Detach- on its own,” he says. c

Airliners such as the Airbus A350 are increasingly


relying on titanium due to its strength and weight
characteristics.
report follows a June 4 update in which an unidentified Boston-
area manufacturer of aircraft engines noted that prices of two
key inputs, nickel and titanium, had already started rising.
Similarly, RBC Capital Markets analysts recently told in-
vestor clients that in the aerospace supply chain, the major
focus continues to be on VSMPO-Avisma, Russia’s largest
titanium producer and a major supplier to Western original
equipment manufacturers (OEM) such as Airbus and Boeing
(AW&ST March 31, p. 32).
VSMPO supplies about 60% of the titanium for Airbus
and 35-40% for Boeing, with total output at nearly 29,000
tons per year, according to analysts. The Boeing 787 and
Airbus A350 in particular are titanium-“hungry,” with buy
AIRBUS/F.LANCELOT
weights of 180,000 lb. and 150,000 lb. per aircraft, respec-
Beige Book on current economic conditions across America, tively (AW&ST May 12, p. 12). Titanium also plays a major role
aerospace manufacturing representatives in the San Fran- in the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program
cisco area note that increasing tensions and broadening sanc- that will provide thousands of tactical aircraft to U.S. allied
tions against Russia may reduce titanium supplies. The Sept. 3 air forces for decades.

AviationWeek.com/awst AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 53


BUSINESS

BOEING
But by all accounts, corporate leaders are not perturbed. Boeing 787s and other Western widebodies are de-
“Airbus and Boeing have both remained calm over the poten- scribed as titanium-“hungry,” leading OEMs to strike
tial for supply disruption, and VSMPO is vocally keen in its supply deals.
desire to keep shipping,” RBC analysts said in late August.
For starters, Airbus’s $4 billion supply contract with VSMPO meant to cripple the Russian economy, not the U.S./EU, and
runs until 2020, and Russian management has stated that if the a titanium shortage would invariably hurt all parties involved.”
European OEM were to cancel the contract, it would be held Still, titanium headlines have emerged elsewhere to add to
liable for penalties, RBC points out. VSMPO and the Russian the friction. UTC’s Pratt & Whitney said in late August that it
government likely are not eager to curtail a steady source of was suing sub-tier titanium supplier A&P Alloys in U.S. District
hard currency, especially if sanctions result in a permanent Court in Boston over alleged fraud. Pratt also booted A&P from
loss of market share against the likes of Western providers its supply chain and said it will not accept parts containing
such as Titanium Metals (Timet), RTI International Metals material from the supplier. The issue, which Pratt has pegged
and Allegheny Technologies, RBC analysts say. at $1 million so far, led the UTC subsidiary to briefly suspend
In the meantime, Airbus, Boeing and United Technolo- delivery of its F135 engine to the Joint Strike Fighter program—
gies Corp. (UTC), at least, have been stockpiling titanium adding to headaches the powerplant provider already was suf-
supplies—a point of fact they neither promote nor avoid in fering on the high-profile engine (AW&ST Sept. 8, p. 22).
public conversations. Indeed, Boeing and UTC reportedly have But barring further discoveries by Pratt & Whitney—or
amassed six months of specialized, forged titanium reserves; an open war between Russia and Ukraine—concerns over
and Boeing credits its long-term joint venture with VSMPO, titanium supply and prices may continue to simmer without
Ural Boeing Manufacturing, for making the Russians reluctant boiling over. Pratt & Whitney promises that while “the tested
to change course on their end. VSMPO apparently also has material may not meet every Pratt & Whitney material con-
stockpiled eight months’ worth of raw materials from Ukraine. trol standard, our engine designs have significant amounts
“With Russian, American and European officials all engaged of margin and, based on our engineering assessments, such
in active contingency planning, as well as downplaying the pos- material does not pose a risk to safety of flight.”
sibility that the flow of titanium will be completely cut off, we The West’s A&D sector, in the meantime, continues not
view the probability of a severe supply chain disruption to be to see immediate major fallout from the Russia-Ukraine
low,” RBC states. “Using the current sanctions placed on the situation, RBC analysts note. “The supply of titanium is
Russian defense industry as an analog, where existing defense probably the largest concern, but as Airbus’s CEO puts it,
contracts and programs are unaffected and only new contracts the supplies are likely to continue in conditions of up to ‘all-
are banned, it seems more likely than not that the U.S. and out war,’” they say. “Put from the other perspective, Russia
other EU nations will not impose a restriction on already probably does not want to further jeopardize its already
existing purchase agreements. The sanctions, after all, are difficult economic situation.” c

54 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


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Viewpoint BY CAPT. LEE MOAK

Pilot Shortage?
No, It’s a Pay
Moak is president
of the Air Line Pilots
Association,
International.

Shortage
he truth about the bogus pilot shortage is out. one that this level of compensation is not attractive,

T Increasingly desperate attempts by those who


promote this fallacy are inevitably losing ground
to the facts. The traveling public, lawmakers and gov-
particularly when many other occupations offer
better starting pay and benefits along with promis-
ing career paths?
ernment leaders know the reality: Rock-bottom pay Students who are currently considering profes-
and benefits offered by regional airlines are failing to sions for which someone with an aviation program
attract pilots and pushing potential new ones to other diploma might be qualified can find many careers
professions. that offer higher starting salaries and better growth
When you look at the numbers, it’s simply not prospects than flying for an airline. Even for new
possible to make the case for a pilot shortage. graduates who want to work in aviation, other jobs
More than 700 Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) such as test engineer or operations manager can re-
pilots are on furlough in North America. In addi- sult in a better career track.
tion, more than 1,000 qualified airline pilots work Adding to the dismal pay, benefits and career
abroad at carriers such as Emirates, China East- opportunities that are disuading new airline pi-
ern Airlines and Etihad Airways, because these lots is the fact that becoming one is an expensive
companies offer them stronger compensation and and time-intensive undertaking. New pilots invest
benefits than their U.S. counterparts. I know from $150,000 or more to complete their college educa-
talking with them that many of the pilots work- tions and aviation training with the expectation
ing overseas would prefer to fly for U.S. airlines that they will receive pay and benefits commen-
surate with the level of training, education and


expertise that passengers expect from the profes-
There are 137,000 U.S. sionals who fly them.
Some in the industry continue to use an alleged
pilots eligible to fly transports, pilot shortage as an excuse to cancel flights, drop
routes and attempt to roll back safety regulations,
and potentially another “ including the new FAA pilot-fatigue and first officer
105,000 could do so. Does this qualification and training rules.
During the rulemaking process, the FAA invited
sound like a shortage? industry, labor and government to help develop the
new regulations. The airlines were fully involved in
the process and supported it. In fact, the Regional
if offered appropriate pay and benefits, and stable Airline Association led the effort as chair of the
careers. FAA’s First Officer Minimum Qualification Aviation
The U.S. government has found the same to be Rulemaking Committee.
true. The FAA’s 2014 data show there are more than These new safety requirements were developed
137,000 active pilots who are eligible to fly—those with input from stakeholders, and the carriers had
younger than 65 and holding Air Transport Pilot years to prepare for their implementation. We can-
(ATP) and first-class medical certificates. Another not—and will not—allow a fabricated pilot shortage
105,000 pilots hold instrument ratings and commer- to derail these important safety enhancements. Our
cial pilot certificates and could potentially obtain an industry must maintain the highest possible safety
ATP. In addition, about 2,400 qualified pilots leave standards.
the U.S. military each year. Finally, the FAA certifi- What’s the solution? We don’t have a pilot shortage
cated 6,396 new ATPs in 2012, and that number is today, but we will have one unless our governments
trending upward each year. In total, there are more put North American airlines on a level playing field
than 251,000 pilots who, according to a recent Gov- internationally so they can compete successfully in
ernment Accountability Office report, are competing the global arena. In addition, we must provide our
for 72,000 airline pilot jobs. Does this sound like a professional pilots with pay and benefits that are
shortage? commensurate with the training, experience and
Why would pilots choose to leave (or never to education that the flying public demands. The result
enter) the airline piloting profession? First-year pi- will add up to a competitive North American airline
lots make between $14,000 and $23,000 at some of industry and benefit all who depend on air transpor-
the lowest-paying airlines. Is it a surprise to any- tation. c

58 AVIATION WEEK & SPACE TECHNOLOGY/SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 AviationWeek.com/awst


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