4IR Event Report - FINAL

The Fourth Industrial Revolution
its impact on economic growth, innovation

and the future of work in the Middle East
Highlights from a roundtable discussion chaired by The Economist Corporate Network and commissioned by Cisco MEA
December 2019
Commissioned by
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THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION
ITS IMPACT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, INNOVATION AND THE FUTURE OF WORK IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Contents
Introduction5
Economic Growth 6
Innovation8
Future of Work 11
Summary14
Copyright
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© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 3

This event summary paper reviews and presents content highlights from an executive roundtable
debate held in Dubai by The Economist Corporate Network (ECN) and commissioned by Cisco on
29 April 2019. The event comprised conversation starters by: Robert Willock, Director of ECN MENA;
Shukri Eid Atari, Managing Director, Middle East Region of Cisco; Nick Karjalainen, Executive Director,
Corporate Strategy at Dubai Holding; and Nuno Gomes, Partner and Career Business Leader MENAT at
Mercer and contributions from 20 other regional business leaders from a variety of industry sectors.
Acknowledgements
The Fourth Industrial Revolution and its impact on economic growth, innovation and the future of work
is a publication of The Economist Corporate Network (ECN).
ECN gratefully acknowledges the contributions of the conversation starters and other event
participants who contributed to the event.
We also appreciate the support of Cisco, the sponsor of the event and this event summary paper.
Irrespective of participation or sponsorship, ECN conducted the event and compiled this report
independently according to our editorial standards.
Robert Willock, director of ECN in Dubai, planned and researched the contents of the event. He also
wrote this paper.
Robert Koepp, director of ECN in Hong Kong, provided a second reading and helpful editorial
comments.
Daljeet Singh, Senior Designer at The EIU in India, managed report graphics and typesetting.
Disclaimer
This paper reviews the discussion contents of an executive roundtable debate held by The Economist
Corporate Network in Dubai on the topic of the impact of Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR)
technologies.
Needless to say, this is a broad subject. Our event focused on three areas of potential impact:
economic growth, innovation and the future of work. Using that basic framework, we conducted a
moderated discussion with organisational leaders who represented a wide range of industries.
The discussion included questions and comments from selected ‘conversation starters’ and
contributions from an audience of assembled senior executives.
A key goal of this exercise was to explore how both businesses and society in general can benefit
from 4IR technologies (including AI, automation, IoT, 3D printing and blockchain) and how they can be
developed and regulated to provide improved economic and social outcomes.
The paper ties together key parts of varied opinions expressed during the exchange while
interweaving analysis from The Economist Intelligence Unit. Our event did not seek to provide
conclusive answers. Instead the intent was to provide data and observations that can creative thinking
on an important subject, one that affects all companies, industries and economies.
This paper assumes no position on what companies and societies should do in the face of 4IR
technological developments other than to be aware that they are occurring and warrant response.
Despite such neutrality, ECN hopes that readers will find the information contained in this document
useful for exploring ways to be better prepared to confront and benefit from the disruptions it describes.
4 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019

Introduction
T he first industrial revolution in the late 18th century used water and steam to mechanise
production; the second industrial revolution of the late 19th century used electric energy to
drive mass production; and the third industrial revolution of late 20th century used electronics and
information technology to automate production.
The fourth industrial revolution is taking place now, and is powered by the cloud, social media,
mobile computing, the internet of things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI), along with increased
computing power and data.
The digital transformation that characterises 4IR is cited by business leaders in the Middle East as
the greatest opportunity they face, according to a recent Economist Intelligence Unit report: Leadership
amid transformation Business opportunities and risks in the Middle East. (See Fig 1)
Figure 1: Macroeconomic and geopolitical opportunities and risks in the Middle East
(% of respondents)
Opportunity Risk No impact
Digital transformation in the country I’m located in 78% 4% 18%
FIFA World Cup 2022 60% 3% 38%
Expo 2020 66% 2% 32%
China’s Belt and Road Initiative 35% 7% 58%
Governments slowing economic diversification as a result of higher oil prices 31% 46% 23%
0 20 40 60 80 100
Source: The EIU.
Accordingly our event proposed and tested the following hypotheisis: “The inevitability of the fourth
industrial revolution and the obviousness of its benefits for competitive differentiation, mean that
organisational leaders have a duty to accelerate their digital transformation programmes.”
Figure 2: Do you agree or disagree with the In a poll of attendees, there was 100% agreement
hypothesis? with the hypothesis. (See Fig 2)
(Total Votes = 22)
With that in mind, we moved on to discussions
centred on three aspects of 4IR technologies:
 their impact on economic growth

Agree
100%  their impact on innovation
 their impact on the future of work
Source: EIU Survey.

Economic Growth
T here is plentiful research outlining how 4IR technologies can impact GDP growth. Most recognise
AI, for example, as a technological quantum leap, like the developments of previous industrial
revolutions such as the steam engine, the internal combustion engine and the microchip.
Roundtable participants expected tech start-
ups developing 4IR technologies to provide the
main drivers for economic growth and argued that
it is important to empower them to increase their
reach. “By encouraging startups to develop, that
will produce more wealth and bring on new talent.
So if there are some policies in place to encourage
this process it will be beneficial for all of society,”
said one.
“We [a large company] see startups producing more disruptive technologies, while we focus on our
bread and butter, aiming incrementally to improve what we have. The problem with big firms is that
inherently they are bureaucratic and they have entrenched market positions that inhibit their ability to
innovate.”
Another participant commented: “I think it’s quite hard for the big players to innovate fast, so they
should look to acquire small startups that are thinking out of the box. This will slowly adjust their
company culture, so they can go from being a very traditional group to a market leader in technology.
“Through these investments big corporations will help entrepreneurs who don’t have enough
resources. They will complement each other, and this innovation can help create more wealth.”
FIRST MOVER ADVANTAGE

It was suggested that ‘first-mover advantage’
is exacerbated in the digital economy, and it
is difficult for a second mover to scale up and
compete. There was a concern expressed about the
potential monopolisation of certain industries.
“You want to do things first in the digital
economy, even if you have to learn from mistakes
along the way, because you get a significant advantage,” said one participant. “Digitisation is a game of
scale, whereby your existing capacity is enabled to do more.”
Another participant challenged: “If there is a significant competitive advantage for individual
companies in accelerating their digital transformation, is there any hope that it might create more
equitable economic growth for society in general?
“Today, with all the data and technology available to us, the gaps between rich and poor are as big as
they have ever been. So you could argue that trend is only going to continue.”

It was agreed that avoiding this potential polarisation is very important task. “If we’re not creating
a level playing field where everyone has access to digital, to acquiring digital skills, to code on a basic
level, to start a business cheaply, then there is a risk that you will have a privileged few benefiting
and large swathes of the population just excluded from the whole digital journey,” commented one
participant. “And that therefore, is a challenge of regulation. The closer you have supply and demand in
parity, the less you need to worry about regulation. But when you have this big gap, it really highlights
an important issue.”
A poll of participants suggested that they were in favour of quite prescriptive regulation to mitigate
the risks of 4IR technologies. (See Fig 3)
Figure 3: On a scale of 1 (not at all) to 10 (extremely), how prescriptive should governments
be on the regulation of next-generation technologies such as AI and automation?
(Total Votes = 19) Results= 6.6
10.0 0%
9.0 5%
8.0 26%
7.0 26%
6.0 16%
5.0 21%
4.0 5%
3.0 0%
2.0 0%
1.0 0%
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
Source: The EIU.
To the question: ‘On a scale of 1 (not at all) to 10 (extremely), how prescriptive should governments
be on the regulation of next-generation technologies such as AI and automation?’ the mean score for
responses was 6.6 and the mode score was 7.5.
But the current regulatory environment was deemed unfit for purpose, because technological
developments are moving with such speed. “The traditional approach to regulation has been that you
try to weigh all the risks, consult and come up with a regulatory framework to mitigate and protect
your constituents from those risks,” commented one participant.
“But with 4IR technologies, you cannot spend five years drafting regulations because they are likely
to be irrelevant or ineffective by the time they hit the statute books. So it’s clear that there is a lot of
work to be done here.”
Another added: “We don’t have enough depth in the regulatory layer to understand what’s going
on with 4IR technologies, let alone to develop policies and regulations around them. “Compare
the knowledge of a team that invents a new technology to that of a bureaucrat working for the
government. How much does he understand that technology, in a way that he can correct it, guide it or
bring it to its final purpose? I don’t think that will ever be matched. So can the government realistically
regulate technology or digitalisation?”
It was suggested that a better role of the government is to become the ‘ultimate collaborator’,
bringing parties together, recognising that it is not going to understand everything that is happening,
but to use its power encourage collaboration and communication.

“The role of government should be to allow and

encourage certain things, but within parameters,”
said one participant. “To mandate that certain tests
have to be conducted, and due diligence has to be
completed and documented.”
The Canadian Government was cited by another
participant as an interesting example. “It realised
that organic free market forces, as far as the digital
space are concerned, are very difficult to regulate. So it curated a set of priorities, not to block anyone
wanting to be able to be innovative, but to incentivise activities in a series of strategically important
areas.
“It is not a rule-based system, but a principles-based system. And it has resulted in Canada really
being on the map when it comes to AI and health tech, for example. It has created jobs, and it has
created a lot of equity for the nation. It seems to be working.”
Innovation
D igital transformation and innovation are at the centre of the corporate agenda today. Participants
reported that spending in these areas is increasing.
But the success rate of digital transformations in
large non-tech companies is low. On average 85%
of digital transformation efforts in most companies
fail, according to McKinsey & Co, Bain, Forbes. They
fail to produce the anticipated economic results,
fail to create a return investment, and probably
few careers fail along the way too, remarked one
participant.
But another countered: “I think we need to
recalibrate our understanding of success and failure in the context of digital transformation, and to
cast the net a little wider. Are we measuring only the hard economic benefits, or are we measuring
something that drives and changes culture and perspectives, which probably comes up with new ideas
that the original invention didn’t even envisage, and which leads us in a different direction where we
might actually find the answer that we were looking for?”
The high capital investment required is cited as the top impediments to the adoption of advanced
technologies. (See Fig 4 )
It was suggested that a big problem for corporations is that their investment is often concentrated,
but the value dispersed. “If you draw a very narrow frame on where the investment was made and you
want to measure the return on investment in that same place, it might not actually make sense,” said
one participant.

Figure 4: Biggest impediments to adopting more advanced technologies (including AI, IoT,
robotics, other automation)
High capital investment required to adopt advanced technologies 47%

Data protection and cyber-security concerns 35%
Shortage of necessary in-house skills to implement and use advanced technologies 34%
Limited understanding of advanced technologies among senior management 29%
Data privacy concerns 29%
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
Source: EIU survey
Another reason for the failure of innovation investment is technology centricity, commented
another participant. “We ask how can we use blockchain in our business, as opposed to asking what do
our customers need, and how can we use new technologies to serve them better. A lot of organisations
jump into the technology, without thinking about its purpose or their people or their products. So then
they just do digitally the things they were doing badly on paper. It’s very important to know why you
are digitising. Are you digitising for the sake of being digital or because you want to become a market
leader, or because you want to compete and survive?
“What that really means is not wanting to
Participants shared quotes from become digital because everyone else has an app,
digital business leaders that but wanting to become digital inside out – adopting
characterise this attitude: the attitude of being digital, being agile, using trial
and error, experimenting and accepting failure.”
“Done is better than perfect” (Sheryl Sandberg,
Changes to internal processes and operations
COO, Facebook)
represent one of the biggest challenges, suggested
“Move fast and break things” (Mark Zuckerberg,
one participant. “Companies should be much
chairman and CEO, Facebook)
more focused on the people side of digital
“If you are not embarrassed by the first version
transformation and innovation, to get everyone on
of your product, you’ve launched too late” (Reid
board with what needs to be done. Take everyone
Hoffman, co-founder, LinkedIn)
with you on the innovation journey,” he said.
Figure 5: In your experience, do the most Another poll of participants asked: “Do the
effective innovation ecosystems come from most effective innovation ecosystems come from
competitive or co-operative R&D competitive or cooperative environments?”
environments? Co-operation was favoured by a small majority
(Total Votes = 22)
(55%) of respondents. (See Fig 5)
Competitive R&D Cooperative R&D Being too ambitious with digital transformation
environments, 10 environments, 12
is also a causal factor in many project failures. “The
larger the transformation, the more difficult it is,”
said one participant. “A lot of companies make the
45%
55% mistake of going for the Big Bang, trying to change
everything at once, rather than going step by
step, or section by section, which would be more
manageable.”
Source: EIU Survey.

That can also mean unviably long project

timelines. “Don’t wait for the conclusion of a
three-year innovation project when, by the time
it’s finished, the technology has changed, the
environment has changed, and the strategy maybe
has changed as well.”
Another participant suggested that the scope of
an organisation’s ambitions depends on its leaders’
definition of innovation. “Innovation is not always
about an entirely new idea. It doesn’t have to be
revolutionary, with brand new offerings to brand
new users.
“New implementations of or improvements to existing technologies or processes still count as
innovation for a lot of organisations that might be catching up with the market, or getting to the point
where they need to be. If people are honest with themselves, they’ll quickly realise that there is more
value in replicating their successes, than in trying to come up with the next greatest thing. And that is
about the difference between innovation and invention.”
It was noted that the Middle East region is often criticised by people who say that it does not
produce genuine innovation, and that most of its
business success stories are replicas. “Like Careem
replicating Uber and Souq replicating Amazon,”
said one participant. “But how much actual true
invention is there in the world? Very little to none.
“Of course there is research and development
coming out of the West because industry there
is more mature with better links to academic
institutions. But we’re starting from way back. It is okay – at the moment – for the Middle East to
innovate incrementally.

Future of Work
T he impact of the adoption of advanced

technologies on jobs is an important
consideration, with some experts predicting mass
unemployment as a result.
“It’s very easy to kind of to create this hysteria,
that everyone’s going to be jobless,” said one
participant. “But while it is true that many jobs will
cease to exist or will fundamentally change, most
studies suggest that there is an obvious positive
delta between the jobs that will be lost to jobs that
will be created. Look at most organisations - many
of the jobs they have now did not exist in the past.
“The jobs that are going to be taken away are
those we shouldn’t be doing as humans anyway – jobs that are repetitive, dangerous or inhumane. AI
will make working conditions easier and safer for people, and it will make work more interesting. AI is
here to help and serve us, not to scare us or intimidate us.”
It was agreed that there are many things a robot or a computer can do better than a human, so we
will subcontract those tasks to machines and turn human effort towards new endeavours.
“But it will be a big challenge to train and reskill people – especially blue collar, manual workers - for
as yet unknown opportunities in an unknown future,” remarked one participant.
In a poll, more than half of participants (53%) said that the primary responsibility for preparing
people for the jobs of the future lies with individuals themselves, with 32% believing that it is chiefly the
government’s responsibility and 16% believing that
Figure 6: Who should bear the primary
responsibility for upskilling the population educators bear the main responsibility. (See Fig 6)
for the jobs of the future? “It is everyone’s responsibility to upskill
(Total Votes = 19) themselves,” said one participant. “But it is the
Educators, 3 Individuals specific responsibility of business leaders to
themselves, 10
describe and create the job opportunities of the
16% future, to create momentum and build purpose.
It is the responsibility of educators to prepare
53%
those students for those opportunities. And it is
32% the responsibility of the government to create the
environment in which all that can happen. We all
have to work together.”
The government, 6
Another participant added: “People joining the
Note. No respondents chose "employers" as an option.
Source: EIU Survey.
world of work today may actually have multiple
careers through their lives, training in one area,

that area eventually becoming redundant, and

then re-training. The concept of jobs for life will
disappear and life-long learning will become much
more important than it was in the past.
“The business leaders in this room employ tens,
if not hundreds, of thousands of people, some of
whom have developed long careers with a single
organization. But this model of employment is
likely to change, with more people developing
‘portfolio careers’ as freelancers in the ‘gig
economy’.
“The very traditional pyramid model of employment, with a few senior staff at the top and lots of
juniors at the bottom is not the future. As those more junior, routine types of jobs are automated, a
company’s workforce will look more like a diamond-shape.
“Companies will employ a contingent, flexible staff that represents perhaps 30% to 40% of their
workforce. And this is not 10 years away, this is in the next three years. Because this is business
imperative. And that could open up opportunities to a much broader group of people, who otherwise
are not able to provide their skills within an organisational structure, for example the large numbers of
women in our region who are unemployed.”
Skills in demand
Participants suggested that the skills that will be required by companies included: industry insights,
relationship-building, team leadership and employee engagement. They agreed that employees will
need to be comfortable with technology, flexible,
agile, team-oriented and good at problem solving
and presenting.
There was also a suggestion that the value of
qualifications is rapidly changing. “It won’t be about
your degree, per se, but the skills that you have,
even in professional services,” commented one
participant.
“It’s a big culture change, because a lot of
parents will still want to encourage their children to
study for traditional qualifications. Now in parts of
the GCC you have over 80% of graduates earning
degrees that are not demanded by marketplace
– which is a massive disparity. So I think the
education system is where you find the gap. And
this needs to change.

“One topic that could be taught to address a lot of these issues is entrepreneurship. I think
entrepreneurship should be a mandatory subject in schools because there will always be a job
opportunity for people with that mindset.”
rather than retraining them - saying that it’s easier

WELFARE
and it’s actually cheaper,” said one participant.
“It is going to be very expensive and very
It was suggested that – as jobs are replaced by
difficult to reskill everyone for the jobs of the
automation - we should challenge our assumptions
future, so we might need to consider a wider
that everyone should have a job.
welfare system. That is a very pragmatic and
“Many prominent business leaders are actually
probably a controversial view, but it’s something
calling for a social system that pays jobless people
that probably needs to be discussed.”

Summary
Economic Growth
 Tech start-ups will provide the main drivers for economic growth, so they need to be encouraged and empowered.
 Large firms tend to be bureaucratic with entrenched market positions that inhibit their ability to innovate. But they do have
resources.
 Big companies should look to acquire small startups that are thinking out of the box to help them transform their business
models and company culture.
 ‘First-mover advantage’ is exacerbated in the digital economy, which leads to concerns about the potential monopolisation
of certain industries.
 Avoiding the potential acceleration of polarization between rich and poor is an important challenge for regulators.
 The current regulatory environment is not fit for technological developments that are rapidly progressing.
 Bureaucracies will be challenged to match the technological understanding of entrepreneurial teams that are inventing
those new technologies.
 A better role for the government is to become a collaborator, using its power encourage collaboration and communication
and to encourage certain behaviours within prescribed parameters.
Innovation
 Most digital transformations fail to produce the anticipated economic results and returns on investment.
 But they drive changes in culture and perspectives that an original plan might not have envisaged, which can create
dispersed value.
 One reason for failure is a focus on only technology – digitising for the sake of being digital, without thinking about why or
how it affects people or products.
 Companies need to adopt the attitude of being digital, being agile, using trial and error, experimenting and accepting failure.
 Changes to internal processes and operations represent one of the biggest challenges.
 Being too ambitious with digital transformation is another cause of project failures – the larger the transformation, the more
difficult it is.
 Incremental improvements on existing technologies or processes can still count as innovation in markets that are catching
up with technology leaders.
 The Middle East has opportunities to deliver innovative products and services to neighbouring frontier markets.

Future of Work
 Most studies suggest that there is a positive delta between the jobs that will be lost to jobs that will be created.
 Many of the jobs that will be automated are repetitive, dangerous or inhumane – jobs not best suited to humans.
 AI can make working conditions easier and safer for people, and make work more interesting.
 Retraining and reskilling the workforce for as yet unknown opportunities in an unknown future is a big challenge.
 The primary responsibility for preparing people for the jobs of the future lies with individuals.
B
usiness leaders should describe and create the job opportunities of the future and educators should prepare students for
those opportunities.
 People joining the world of work today may have multiple careers through their lives, so life-long learning will become
important.
 The traditional pyramid model of employment will become more diamond-shaped, with companies employing more
contingent staff for routine tasks.
 That can open up opportunities to people who are currently excluded from the jobs market, for example large numbers of
women.
 The job skills of the future will include industry insights, relationship-building, team leadership and employee engagement,
familiarity with technology, agility, problem solving and presenting.
 There is a risk that parents will still encourage their children to study for traditional qualifications that are not demanded by
marketplace.
 Entrepreneurship should be taught in schools because of the job opportunities available for people with an entrepreneurial
mindset.
What will we be talking about in 10 years’ time?

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The Fourth Industrial Revolution

its impact on economic growth, innovation

EIU subscription services

The Economist Corporate Network

© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 3

4 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019

 their impact on economic growth

 their impact on the future of work

Source: EIU Survey.

© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 5

FIRST MOVER ADVANTAGE

6 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019

Source: The EIU.

© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 7

“The role of government should be to allow and

8 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019

High capital investment required to adopt advanced technologies 47%

© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 9

That can also mean unviably long project

10 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019

T he impact of the adoption of advanced

© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 11

that area eventually becoming redundant, and

12 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019

rather than retraining them - saying that it’s easier

© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 13

14 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019

What will we be talking about in 10 years’ time?

© The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2019 15

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