Ca 1 PDF

Current Affairs by SSP
Asmatullah Junejo, PSP

Saturday, October 21, 2017 1
Day 1
Sequence
 Energy Crisis in Pakistan
 Pak-China Economic Corridor
Saturday, October 21, 2017 Current Affairs by SSP Asmatullah Junejo, PSP 3
Current Affairs
 A compulsory subject
 Marks 100
 Objectives and MCQs
 Recommended book “Contemporary Affairs by Imtiaz

Shahid” (latest edition) and Panorama monthly magazine
 Quotations and maps are very important
 Understanding the essence of the issue/topic
Current Affairs Syllabus 2016
 I. Pakistan's Domestic Affairs (20 marks)
i. Political
ii. Economic
iii. Social
 II. Pakistan's External Affairs (40 marks)
i. Pakistan’s relations with its Neighbors (India, China,
Afghanistan)
ii. Pakistan’s relations with the Muslim World (Iran, Saudi
Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey)
iii. Pakistan’s relations with the United States
iv. Pakistan’s relations with Regional and International
Organizations (UN, SAARC, ECO, OIC, WTO, CW)
Current Affairs Syllabus 2016
 III. Global Issues (40 marks)
i. International Security
ii. International Political Economy
iii. Human Rights
iv. Environment: Global Warming, Kyoto Protocol, Copenhagen Accord
v. Population: world population trends, world population policies
vi. Terrorism and Counter Terrorism
vii. Global Energy Politics
viii. Nuclear Proliferation and Nuclear Security
ix. Nuclear Politics in South Asia
x. International Trade (Doha Development Round and Bali Package)
xi. Cooperation and Competition in Arabian Sea, Indian and Pacific
Oceans.
xii. Millennium Development Goals, Current Status,
xiii. Globalization
xiv. Middle East Crisis
xv. Kashmir Issue
xvi. Palestine Issue
Energy Crisis
 An energy crisis is defined as:
i. Any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the supply of

energy resources to an economy.
ii. Any great shortfall in the supply of energy to an

economy.
iii. The shortage of oil, electricity or other natural
resources.
Energy Consumption in Pakistan
 Energy Consumption Pattern
 Productive: Non-Productive
 Energy Mix
 Renewable : Non-Renewable
 RE: NRE
Energy Consumption in Pakistan
 Energy consumption 2016-2017
Salesstreet lights
1%
Agriculture
13%
Domestic
Industrial 50%
29%
commercial
7%
Supply and Demand
 The total power production capacity in country is around
20,500 MW (2017)
 Country is falling short of about 4500-7500 MW
 The demand of electricity is growing at the annual rate of

9% while supply of electricity is increasing at
comparatively slower rate of 7%
YEAR EXPECTED AVAILABLE DEMAND (SUMMER PEAK) SURPLUS/DEFICIT
GENERATION
2008 13146 16848 -3338
2009 16110 17868 -1758
2010 18503 19352 -849
2011 20814 20874 -60
2012 21167 22460 -1293
2013 23368 24126 -758
2014 23538 25919 -2381
2015 24408 28029 -3621
2016 25630 30223 -4593
2017 27481 35504 -8023
2018 27481 34918 -7437
2019 27481 37907 -10426
2020 27481 41132 -13651
Historical Evolution of Energy Crisis in
Pakistan
i. In the 1960s, a large civilian energy input and
infrastructure was built by the Pakistan military, with the
financial funds provided by various countries and
international monetary sources.
ii. In the 1960s, much of the energy was produced by the
hydroelectric dams and thermal power stations. In the
1970s, Pakistan's energy consumption expanded to
nuclear power sources with the establishment and
commissioning of first nuclear power station in Karachi.
iii. In the 1980s, the dependence on nuclear sources further
grew and the military continued engineering and
building the nuclear power infrastructure.
Pakistan
iv. In 1994, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto of Pakistan Peoples Party
(PPP) launched the country's first ever and largest energy
conservation program to produce 13,000MW and issued 70
Memorandum of Understandings (MOUs) and Letters of Intent
(LOIs) to Independent Power Producers (IPPs).
v. This 1994 energy policy brought a decisive shift in Pakistan's diverse
energy sources. In 1994, out of the total installed capacity of
11000MW, ~60% of energy was produced from the hydroelectric
power sources while nearly ~40% was produced from the thermal
and nuclear sources.
vi. According to the economic statistics provided by economists, this
mix was reversed from 60:40 to 30:70 in favor of thermal capacity
based on imported fuel.
vii. Every year, this ratio went down further to 20:80 in winter months as
hydropower generation was reduced due to lower water flows in the
rivers.
Pakistan
viii. Controversially, the energy policy depended less on renewable
energy sources and dependence on imported oil increased that
created a permanent fault in country's energy conservation
system.
ix. By 1995, only 27 IPPs were able to generate ~6,335MW of
electricity.
x. By 1998, the ratio was stabilized by the policies enforced by
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
xi. In 2001, the military government led by President Pervez
Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, while
contributing to the growth of domestic demand for electricity
through large-scale provision of bank loans for the purchase of
air-conditioners and home appliances (share of domestic
energy consumption had jumped to 46% of the total by 2008),
did not add any new capacity to the energy system.
Pakistan
xii. In 2005, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz announced the
long-term energy security program which was aimed to
the development of the power infrastructure from all
energy sources.
xiii. This policy relied on privatizing the energy sector by
international mega energy corporations.
xiv. Controversially, this program was aimed to raise
dependence on imported oil from the Arab countries for
power generation to be increased by 50.1% by 2013.
Pakistan
xv. In 2006, Prime Minister Aziz held conversation with the
officials of the Saudi Ministry of Petroleum and invited
Saudi Arabia to invest in country's energy sector.
xvi. In 2007, Prime Minister Aziz allocated ₨. 12.5 billion for
power production-related projects which remained
unutilized.
xvii. In his last policy statement, Prime Minister Aziz further
called for banning the Neon lights, Neon signs, and to
close the market places by 9PM; such policy enforcement
was harshly resisted by the left-wing parties, such as
Pakistan Peoples Party and the labour unions.
Pakistan
xviii.After the general elections held in 2008, the
mismanagement and weak policies led to an intense
repetitive cycle of load-shedding in the country.
xix. Responding to a massive demonstration against the load-
shedding and the growing power shortages in the country,
Prime Minister, Yousaf Gilani announced the "energy
policy" on 22 April 2010.
xx. The policy was announced after the Prime Minister, Gilani
had held a three-day national energy conference in
Islamabad with energy experts that discussed the causes
of the power crisis in Pakistan and possible steps to relieve
it.
Pakistan
xxi. After much criticism and public demonstration in 2012,
the PPP government decided to nationalized the energy
sector and issued clear directives to regulate the energy
corporations to produce the power generations.
xxii. In 2012, rental power plants were imported with
expensive production of electricity.
xxiii.The circular debt has risen from Rs. 530 billion (2013) to
Rs. 600 billion (2017)
Components of Power Sector
 Three main components of power system in Pakistan:
i. The Generation
ii. The Transmission
iii. The Distribution
 Each component has inherent system losses i.e. 5-8%, 10-
15% and 10-15% respectively.
 In case of Pakistan, these losses are 10-15%, 20-35% and
35-50% respectively (2017).
Circular Debt –
A vicious cycle of unpaid bills
 Circular debt arises when one party not having adequate
cash flows to discharge its obligations to its suppliers
withholds payments.
 When it does so, the problem affects other entities in the
supply chain, each of which withholds its payments,
resulting in operational difficulties for all service providers
in the sector, none of whom are then able to function at full
capacity, causing unnecessary load-shedding.
Circular Debt –
A vicious cycle of unpaid bills
 The circular debt numbers that get reported in the
press tend to be the sum of the receivables of each
organization which ends up exaggerating the amount,
simply because of double counting.
 After all, one party’s payables are the other party’s
receivables, and logically these should cancel out when
we subtract one from the other.
 At worst the net amount should be much smaller.
Circular Debt –
Causes
 Next, three components, and the most critical ones, which raise
costs, and feed the circular debt, are the following:
i. The inefficiencies of government-owned generation and
distribution companies, that includes
i. Overstaffing,
ii. Free provision of electricity to Wapda employees (this costs other
consumers Rs.10 crore a day),
iii. Poor maintenance of plant equipment,
iv. Obsolete technologies (resulting in technical losses),
v. Corruption,
 All of which simply add to the cost of electricity that
consumers are being constrained to bear with equanimity
through tariff increases.
Circular Debt –
Causes
ii. The massive issue of electricity theft — the cases of
DISCOs in Hyderabad, Peshawar, Quetta and FATA are
now well known; with literally no one paying in FATA.
iii. Poor collection of electricity bills. Rs.90bn alone is due
from provincial governments. Powerful private
individuals and companies are also defaulters as are those
who in collusion with Wapda employees do not pay
without being disconnected — Rs120bn is due from
private consumers!
Circular Debt –
Effects
i. Inflation
ii. Load-shedding
iii. Economic backwardness
iv. Corruption
Root Causes of Current Energy Crisis
i. Over-Consumption
ii. Bottleneck at oil refineries and port facilities
iii. Pipeline failure (“White Pipeline”)
iv. Infrastructure damage
v. Ages old Infrastructure and Line Losses
vi. Geopolitical factors (oil from Middle East)
vii. Theft of electricity
viii. Lack of planning and proper utilization of natural resources

Root Causes of Current Energy Crisis
x. Lack of new hydro-projects
xi. Lack of Capacity of Distribution of Electricity
xii. Government’s dependence on IPP’s
xiii. High system losses in generation, transmission and

distribution
Dreadful Social & Economic Impacts
i. Socio-Economic decline
ii. Unemployment and street crimes
iii. Psychological complexes
iv. Decrease in manufacturing
v. Deterioration of normal life & business
vi. Increase in transport costs
vii. The prevailing energy crisis in Pakistan is taking away 2 percent (or
Rs380 billion) of the economy, despite the government has spent
Rs1.1 trillion as subsidies on the sector in the last four-year which
accounts for 2.5 percent of the total volume of economy
viii. Reduction in the banks' workweek to 5 days will result in revenue
losses
Mitigation of Energy Crisis
i. Crisis Management (Strategies + M&E)
ii. Public awareness
iii. Review energy policies
iv. Exploit alternative energy recourses
v. Construction of new dams
vi. Political stability
vii. LNG’s potential is 3000 MW
viii. Better utilization of natural resources
ix. Govt. must pay circular debts
x. Govt. must invest to cover up line losses
xi. Energy conservation:
i. Industries must apply Energy Conservation Systems and
Management measures
ii. They can start producing their own energy with their own
investment without depending upon the national grid
iii. Industrialists and new investors must consider the Energy Sector
as good an investment as any other. Needs image building
iv. Govt. must convert from inefficient gas plants to efficient ones in
order to conserve electric energy
xii. Govt. must consider investing in Solar Energy plants to
produce Electricity as they provide free energy, and are less
mechanical than Wind Energy Plants
xiii. In the Thar area, Pakistan has the 2nd largest coal
reserve in the world and yet Pakistan only produces
0.2% of its electricity from coal.
xiv. If all the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia & Iran are put
together, these are approximately 375 billion
barrels. But a single Thar Coal Reserve of Sind is
about 850 trillion cubic feet, which is more than oil
reserves of Saudi Arabia & Iran.
I. Short Term Plan
 Increase the number of IPPs (independent Power Producers)
 Reactivate the closed power generating units
 Overhaul the existing poor distribution system
 Govt should have strict check over losses
 Import electricity
II. Medium Term Plan
 Transformation of existing system
 Installing solar, wind projects in villages
III. Long Term Plan
 Installing coal based power houses
 Initiate agreements for mega projects
 Exploration of more oil, gas and coal reserves
 Provide incentive for up gradation and training to the engineers for
new technology
Coal is one of the cheapest ways
i.
to produce electricity; globally,
Distribution of Coal the share of coal in power
generation is 41 percent,
Province Resources
Sindh 184,623 compared to 0.2 percent in
Balochistan 217 Pakistan.
Punjab 235
KPK 91 ii. In fact, countries like Australia
AJK 9 and China produce 77% to 80%
Total 185,175 bt
of their electricity from coal.
iii. Pakistan could generate 20,000
MW from coal alone.
iv. About 184.5 billion tones of coal
in Thar area of Sindh is present
INTRODUCTION
Renewable energy is abundant in nature
Renewable energy needs no replenishment
Human dependence on renewable energy only in state of nature
Discovery of fire 4000 BC
Renewable resources that are technologically viable and have
prospects to be exploited commercially in Pakistan include the
following types of energies:
i. Hydel
ii. Solar
iii. Wind
iv. Tidal
INSTALLED ENERGY GENERATION CAPACITY
 Wapda Thermal…………6706 MW
 Hydel……………………..…6555 MW
 Nuclear…………….……….787 MW
 IPPs (Thermal)………….8911 MW
 Rental (Thermal)…….453 MW
 Total………………………..23412 MW
Source:
Saturday, Malik,
October 21,Afia,
2017 PakistanCurrent
Institute of Development
Affairs Economics,
by SSP Asmatullah Islamabad
Junejo, PSP 39
CURRENT DEMAND AND SUPPLY
 Total Capacity….. 23412 MW
 Total Generation….16000 MW
i. Current demand…. 20000 MW
ii. Projected demand by 2030: 62,590 MW
iii. Share of renewable by 2030: 9700 MW (5% share)
 Note: If run on the full capacity, only load shedding can be done
away without any economic growth as 1% GDP growth needs 1.25
% more energy.
Source: Medium Term Development Framework, Planning Commission, Govt. of Pakistan
Bernhard, Meyhoefar,GIZ, Pakistan.
WHY RENEWABLE ENERGY?
i. Hydel energy is the cheapest energy
ii. Thermal the most expensive
iii. Thermal energy drains foreign exchange
iv. Inadequate supply of fuel due to circular debt
v. Easy transmission of hydel energy
vi. Local expertise available for hydel energy
vii. Vast potential of hydel energy
Comparison
Thermal Power Project Hydel Power Project
i. Low initial cost for i. High initial cost for

installation installation
ii. Politically advantageous ii. Politically disadvantageous
iii. Less time for installation iii. More time for installation
i.e. from 2-4 years i.e. from 8-10 years
iv. High cost of maintenance iv. Low cost of maintenance
v. More chances of v. Less chances of
commissions and kickbacks commissions and kickbacks
vi. Short-term approach vi. Long-term approach
vii. Unfriendly to environment vii. Environmental friendly
RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL IN
PAKISTAN (2017)
Alternative Energy Potential
Wind Power 350,000 MW

Solar Power 6,00,000 MW
Hydro Power 60,000 MW
Tidal Power Not estimated
Total Over 1 million MW
Source: Prof. Shakir, Sattar, UE Lahore, www.scribd.com
HYDRO POWER ENERGY
i. Pakistan has a potential of 60,000 MW of Hydro
Power Energy.
ii. At present 6,595 MW (15 % of available potential)
of Electricity is generated through Hydro Power.
iii. Tarbela Power Plant is the biggest plant with total
capacity of 3478 MW.
iv. The construction work on 4500 MW Bhasha
Hydro Power Plant will start next year.
v. The feasibility study of 4320 MW Dasu Hydro
Power Plant has been completed and
construction work will start with in few years.
SHARE OF HYDROPOWER IN PAKISTAN
Year Hydel : Thermal
1960 44:56
1970 50:50
1980 58:42
1985 67:33
1990 45:55
2000 33:67
2005 37:63
2008 33:67
2017 34:66
READY FOR CONSTRUCTION HYDRO
POWER PROJECTS
Project River Location Capacity(MW)
Kala Bagh Indus Kala Bagh 3600
Munda Dam Swat Muhmand 740

Agency
Akhori Indus Attock 600
Total 4940
UNDER STUDIES HYDROPOWER PROJECTS
Project River Location Potential(MW)
Tarbela Extension Indus Tarbela 960
Kohala Jhelum Kohala 1100

Dasu Indus Dasu 4320
Bunji Indus Gilgit 7100
Phandar Ghizar Gilgit 80
Lower Palas valley Chor Nullah Pattan 621
Lower Spat Gah Spat Gah Pattan 567

UNDER STUDIES HYDROPOWER PROJECTS
Project River Location Potential (MW)
Basho Basho Skardu 28

Keyal Khwar Keyal Khwar Pattan 122
Lawi Sheshi Drosh-Chitral 70
Harpo Harpo-Lungama Skardu 33
Thakot Indus Thakot 2800
Pattan Indus Pattan 2800
Yulbo Indus Skardu 3000
Total 23601
WIND ENERGY POTENTIAL
i. Wind energy potential over 350,000 MW
ii. Pakistan has a considerable potential of wind energy in the
coastal belt of Sindh and Balochistan
iii. Pakistan has a 1,046 Km coastline in the South
iv. Average wind speed more than 7.5 m/s in Gharo Wind
Corridor
v. Other sites in Balochistan, Punjab and Northern Areas being
identified
vi. The coastal belt of Pakistan is blessed with a wind corridor
that is 60 km wide (Gharo , Kati Bandar) and 180 km long (up
to Hyderabad)
vii. This corridor has the exploitable potential of 350,000 MW of
electricity generation through wind energy
Gharo Wind Corridor
SOLAR ENERGY
• Pakistan is located in the “Sun Belt” and offers

ideal solar energy options
• Pakistan receives one of the maximum solar
radiations in the world
• Quaid-e-Azam solar Park in Cholistan, Punjab with
50 MW power generation
SOLAR ENERGY POTENTIAL
 Solar energy potential…. 6,00,000 MW
 Average solar irradiation 5-7Kw/m2/day
 Around 90% territory has shiny sun over 360 days
per annum
 Strong irradiation can be used for solar water
heaters
Source: Abdul Sattar, Pofessor UET, Lahore
TIDAL ENERGY
 The potential has not been estimated.
 There must be huge potential in high tide Arabian
Sea
 Tidal energy is very expensive in terms of
generation and distribution
Source: Abdul Sattar, Pofessor UET, Lahore
CHALLENGES AND BARRIERS
 Policy Challenges
 Lack of competition with conventional energy
 Poor Infrastructure
 Renewable energy requires distribution system and
replacement of national grid
 Institutional Barriers
 Lack of coordination between relevant institutions
(NEPRA, MoWP)
CHALLENGES AND BARRIERS
 Technical capacity and information base
 Shortage of technical Information like wind speed data, Sunshine
Data
 Shortage of technical professionals
 Non existence of service companies
 Equipment suppliers, contractors
 Financial Barriers
 Availability of funds
 Incentives to RE schemes
 Lack of investors confidence due to security reasons
 Lack of Social Awareness
 The general public unawareness of RE benefits
CONCLUSION
i. Hydel energy is cheaper than other sources of energy both in terms
of production and transmission
ii. There is great potential of renewable energy in Pakistan and hydel
energy is the viable solution to energy crisis due to its cost
effectiveness
iii. The existing Thermal-hydel Ratio needs to be reversed with more
reliance upon hydel energy
iv. Foreign investors and International Financial Institutions (IFIs)
need to Be convinced for investment
v. Solar and wind energy are ideal for household consumption
RECOMMENDATIONS
i. The Govt should focus upon renewable energy
instead of thermal energy as a long term solution
ii. State-of-the-art National Grid should be installed.
iii. A coordination mechanism for various institutions

should be evolved.
iv. Research should be conducted into various technical

issues like wind speed, sunshine, etc.
RECOMMENDATIONS
v. Professionals should be trained abroad
vi. Incentives should be offered to equipment suppliers,

contractors and service companies
vii. The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) should be invited on

priority basis
viii. The Govt should launch campaigns to create awareness

among people regarding benefits of RE for household use.
Class Discussion
Prepare short-term, medium-

term and long-term strategies to
utilize renewable sources of
energy in Pakistan.
Thank
You
Please contact for Queries
Asmatullah Junejo (PSP)
Senior Superintendent of Police, Rawalpindi
0300-7064608
asmatullahjunejo@hotmail.com

Ca 1 PDF

Transféré par

Informations du document

Titre original

Copyright

Formats disponibles

Partager ce document

Partager ou intégrer le document

Options de partage

Avez-vous trouvé ce document utile ?

Ce contenu est-il inapproprié ?

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Ca 1 PDF

Transféré par

Droits d'auteur :

Formats disponibles

Current Affairs by SSP

Asmatullah Junejo, PSP

 Pak-China Economic Corridor

 Objectives and MCQs

 Recommended book “Contemporary Affairs by Imtiaz

 Understanding the essence of the issue/topic

i. Any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the supply of

ii. Any great shortfall in the supply of energy to an

iii. The shortage of oil, electricity or other natural

 Country is falling short of about 4500-7500 MW

 The demand of electricity is growing at the annual rate of

iii. Economic backwardness

ii. Bottleneck at oil refineries and port facilities

iii. Pipeline failure (“White Pipeline”)

iv. Infrastructure damage

v. Ages old Infrastructure and Line Losses

vi. Geopolitical factors (oil from Middle East)

vii. Theft of electricity

viii. Lack of planning and proper utilization of natural resources

xi. Lack of Capacity of Distribution of Electricity

xii. Government’s dependence on IPP’s

xiii. High system losses in generation, transmission and

i. Current demand…. 20000 MW

ii. Projected demand by 2030: 62,590 MW

iii. Share of renewable by 2030: 9700 MW (5% share)

i. Hydel energy is the cheapest energy

ii. Thermal the most expensive

iii. Thermal energy drains foreign exchange

iv. Inadequate supply of fuel due to circular debt

v. Easy transmission of hydel energy

vi. Local expertise available for hydel energy

vii. Vast potential of hydel energy

i. Low initial cost for i. High initial cost for

Wind Power 350,000 MW

Source: Prof. Shakir, Sattar, UE Lahore, www.scribd.com

Kala Bagh Indus Kala Bagh 3600

Munda Dam Swat Muhmand 740

Akhori Indus Attock 600

Source: Prof. Shakir, Sattar, UE Lahore, www.scribd.com

Kohala Jhelum Kohala 1100

Lower Spat Gah Spat Gah Pattan 567

Basho Basho Skardu 28

• Pakistan is located in the “Sun Belt” and offers

Source: Abdul Sattar, Pofessor UET, Lahore

Source: Abdul Sattar, Pofessor UET, Lahore

ii. State-of-the-art National Grid should be installed.

iii. A coordination mechanism for various institutions

iv. Research should be conducted into various technical

vi. Incentives should be offered to equipment suppliers,

vii. The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) should be invited on

viii. The Govt should launch campaigns to create awareness

Prepare short-term, medium-

Senior Superintendent of Police, Rawalpindi

Vous aimerez peut-être aussi