| Standard Chartered Morning Call |

30 Nov 10 – No systemic USD squeeze in Asia yet

21:00 GMT 29 November 2010

 USD liquidity conditions in the euro area may get worse before they get better
 There is no evidence of a systemic USD liquidity squeeze in Asia so far
 This is supported by Asian economies’ strong external balances and low leverage
 Investors should look for opportunities to sell EUR-AXJ and JPY-AXJ from early 2011
 Calendar: Korean CPI and trade data, Indian and Australian GDP, China’s PMI

Analysts We are pleased to announce that our FX research team was ranked the most
accurate forecaster of major exchange rates for the six quarters to 30 September
Thomas Harr , +65 6530 3617
Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore 2010, in a Bloomberg survey of 44 leading international financial institutions.
Head, Asian FX Strategy
Thomas.Harr@sc.c om
In recent weeks, the US dollar (USD) liquidity situation has worsened in the euro-area
Vincent Tsui , +852 3983 8563
Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Ltd. markets, triggered by sovereign debt concerns. The likelihood of recent market
Economist
Vincent.Tsui@sc.c om dislocations deteriorating into a large-scale funding squeeze depends on whether the
Edward Lee Wee Kok, +65 6530 3188 situation in the euro-area periphery deteriorates further, and the next few days are likely
Standard Chartered Bank, Singapore
Regional Head of Rates Strategy, Asia to be crucial. While we do not think a crisis is imminent, things could deteriorate quickly.
Lee.Wee-Kok@sc.com
Looking further afield, there may be a limit to how severe USD funding stress may
Delphine Arrighi , +852 3983 8568
Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong ) Ltd. become as the major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and
Senior R ates Strategist
Delphine.Arrighi@sc.com four other G10 institutions, still have USD swap lines in place with the Federal Reserve.
Suktae Oh , +82 2 3702 5011
SC First Bank Korea Limited
Regional Head of Res earch, Korea
In Asia, USD liquidity has tightened in Korea and the Philippines. However, in both
Suktae.Oh@sc.c om economies, this appears to have been triggered by local events, including North
Usara Wilaipich , +662 724 8878
Standard Chartered Bank (Thai) PC L
Korea’s artillery fire at South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island on 23 November and
Senior Economist, T hailand Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) decision not to roll over maturing FX swaps. In
Usara.Wilaipic h@sc.com
other Asia ex-Japan (AXJ) markets, USD liquidity appears to be ample. This is
Jinny Yan , +86 21 3851 5019
Standard Chartered Bank (China) Lt d. supported by AXJ economies’ relatively low ratios of short-term debt to FX reserves
Economist
Jinny.Yan@sc .com and, with the exception of Korea, AXJ banks’ relatively low dependence on wholesale
Anubhuti Sahay, +91 22 2268 3182 funding. Hence, so far, there is no evidence of a systemic shortage of USD in Asia
Standard Chartered Bank, Indi a
Economist triggered by euro-area sovereign debt worries.
Anubhuti.Sahay@sc.com

Sayem Ali , +92 3245 7839

Standard Chartered Bank (Pakistan) Ltd. We expect USD-AXJ to remain choppy and trendless into year-end on euro-area
Economist
Sayem.Ali@sc.c om sovereign debt worries, China’s monetary tightening and the growth slowdown.
Nagaraj Kulkarni , +91 22 2265 5934 However, from early 2011, we expect USD-AXJ to head lower again, supported by
Standard Chartered Bank, Indi a
Senior R ates Strategist AXJ growth outperformance and widening US-AXJ rate spreads. Within AXJ, we
Nagaraj.Kul karni@sc .com expect North East Asian currencies to outperform their South East Asian counterparts
Thomas Costerg , +44 20 7885 8615 owing to large external surpluses, m onetary tightening and better valuations. From
Standard Chartered Bank, United Kingdom
Economist early 2011, investors should focus on scaling into AXJ risks, where long positions in
Thomas.Cos terg@sc.com
the Korean won (KRW), Chinese yuan (CNY) and Taiwan dollar (TWD) should be
Douglas Smith , +1 212 667 0564
Standard Chartered Bank, United States funded by the euro (EUR) and the Japanese yen (JPY).
Regional Head of Res earch, Latin America
Douglas.Smith@sc.c om

David Semmens, +1 212 667 0452

Standard Chartered Bank, United States
Economist
David.Semmens@sc.c om

Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix

All rights reserved. Standard Chartered Bank 2010 http://research.standardchartered.com

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 Standard Chartered Morning Call | 30 November 2010

Rates and foreign exchange

Asia
China – Strong PMI to remain a short-term support
On Wednesday 1 December, China releases its official manufacturing PMI (9am local time). We expect it to have
remained robust at 55.0 – and to be at a similar level even after seasonal adjustments – from 54.7 in October. The rise
since July is largely owing to a sharp rebound in its major components – new orders (58.2 in October) and production
(57.1) – as well as a stable employment (52.1) component, which has shown expansion since March 2010. New export
orders (52.6) have yet to suffer significantly, but a decline may be inevitable, given expected export headwinds heading
into 2011. Overall, manufacturing activity has remained resilient, so far. Nonetheless, downside risks loom for upcoming
PMI readings as we head into the festive season, especially with further tightening to come (we forecast four more rate
hikes of 25bps each before end-June 2011).

India – Q2-FY11 GDP expected to moderate

The market rem ains focused on the release of Q2-FY11 (July-September 2010) GDP data, with the consensus –
including us – expecting headline growth to have moderated. We expect GDP growth slowed to 8.3%, from 8.8% y/y in
Q1-FY11, primarily because industrial growth declined to 8.8% y/y from 11.5% y/y in the pre vious quarter. Indeed ,
moderate industrial activity le vels – a result of an elevated base effect and the waning of pent-up demand – will probably
more than offset reasonably stable performances by the agricultural and the service sectors. Any deviation from the
consensus expectation (8.2% y/y) will be closely monitored to gauge policy implications. Also, the demand-side
breakdown of GDP will be closely scrutinised to assess any further pick-up in household demand, as investment activity
moderates in line with slower industrial growth.

Meanwhile, on 29 November, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced a further extension of the temporary liquidity-
easing measures announced on 9 November. The RBI has temporarily reduced the statuary liquidity ratio (SLR) by an
additional 1%, to 23%. The SLR is the proportion of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) that scheduled commercial
banks have to invest in government securities. The reduction of the SLR will allow banks to use c.INR 500bn worth of
government securities as collateral for overnight borrowing at the repo rate the central bank sets via its daily liquidity
adjustment facility (L AF). In addition, the RBI will continue to conduct the second LAF in the evening. Bot h these indirect
measures are effective until 28 January 2011.

As forecast in our recent publication (On the Gr ound, 01 November 2010, ‘India – Liquidity shortage: no end in
sight’), banking system liquidity has remained well above the central bank’s comfort level (of c.INR 500bn), despite
ongoing temporary indirect measures. In December, we expect the banking system to come under further stress given
cash outflows owing to advance tax payments. This, combined with the government’s intention (as indicated by recent
statements) to continue its borrowing programme (and not postpone the auctions) might have pushed the RBI to
announce these measures, in our view. In the near term, we expect these measures to provide a temporary buffer for the
banking system, helping it to manage the advance tax cash outflows.

Pakistan – Another rate hike

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) hiked policy rates by 50bps in the 29 November meeting, because of concern over the
deterioration of the fiscal position and a sharp acceleration in inflation. The hike was in line with market expectations, with
the overnight deposit and lending rates increased to 11% and 14% , respectively. SBP has clamped down hard on the lack
of fiscal discipline, with the government printing PKR 266bn during July to November to finance its deficit, despite
committing to zero net borrowing from the central bank under the terms of the IMF programme. Delays in implementing tax
measures – with implementation of the reformed sales tax (RGST) now delayed until January 2011 instead of the earlier
target of October 2010 – have aggravated the weak fiscal position and forced the government to continue printing money
to finance its large deficits. This has led to an increase in high-powered reserve money and fuelled inflation, with inflation
printing 15.3% in October 2010 versus 9.8% in October 2009; it is likely to trend higher in Q4-2010 owing to the expected
cutback in power subsidies and rising international commodity prices. The SBP has now raised its inflation forecasts for
FY11 (ending June 2011) to 14.5% from 11.5% earlier. This indicates further monetary tightening ahead.

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 Standard Chartered Morning Call | 30 November 2010

The 50bps hike in benchmark rates – which was announced after the markets closed – was in line with bond market
expectations. We expect the yield on the benchmark 10Y government security to move higher by about 15bps. However,
as the existing benchmark 10Y government security will be soon replaced, we expect traders to cover their short
positions, and thus cap the rise in the 10Y yield. In the near term, we expect further bond-market weakness. We believe
that inflation is on an upward trajectory, and has yet to peak. Consequently, we believe further monetary policy tightening
is likely, which will exert upward pressure on yields.

South Korea – We expect lower headline inflation and slower export growth
South Korea will release November CPI and trade data on 1 December. We expect year -on-year headline inflation to
have declined to 3.7% from 4.1% prior, thanks to fresh food prices stabilising. Headline inflation is likely to return to a
normal level around 3% in December, as fresh food prices continue to decline. Core inflation should remain subdued
owing to stable service-sector inflation. Exports are likely to show a gradual slowdown, although year-on-year growth
should still be high because of the lower base. Imports should be relatively strong. The trade surplus may decline slightly,
but should still be substantial. We forecast 28.0% export growth, 30.4% import growth, and a USD 5.0bn trade surplus.

Thailand – Economic growth set to moderate given political uncertainty

Thai economic data for October is due on Tuesday at 07:30 GMT. We e xpect both manufacturing production and capacity
utilisation to have slowed versus September, given falling exports. October’s export values should have shrunk m/m owing
to lower global demand. Thanks to the favourable base effect, exports should have expanded by 16.1% y/y in October.
Accordingly, we e xpect the current account surplus to have narro wed to USD 2.3bn, from September’s USD 2.8bn. As
exports are likely to lose further momentum, we expect the surplus to decline in coming months. In terms of domestic
demand, we expect both private consumption and investment to moderate further, given renewed political uncertainty.

On 29 November Thailand’s Constitutional Court dismissed allegations that the Democrat Party (DP) had misused
political subsidies , and the DP survived the dissolution case. Nevertheless, it faces further challenges in coming months,
including another court case, which concerns allegations of illegal political donations worth THB 258mn. Separately, we
also envisage renewed political tension outside parliament. This follows the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) – the
so-called ‘Yellow Shirts’ – decision to return to the streets to oppose parliament’s plan to rewrite the constitution. More
importantly, the PAD plans to hold a mass rally on 11 December. This event will remind the market of events in October-
November 2008, when the PAD besieged the capital’s Suvarnabhumi International Airport and Government House to
oust the government led by former PM Thaksin. On balance, we are still cautious about political uncertainty, with the risk
of an early election in 2011.

On Monday, the Thai baht (THB) strengthened after the Constitutional Court cleared the DP of election fraud, after USD-
THB had reached an intraday high of 30.34. However, we believe that the outlook for the THB has turned substantially less
positive recently. On 25 November, we lowered our short-term FX rating on the THB to Neutral from Overweight on slowing
growth, rising political uncertainty and the change in FX policy (see FX Alert, 25 November 2010, ‘THB lowered to
Neutral from Overweight’). Short-term momentum indicators for USD-THB are mixed, as the 14-day RSI and stochastics
are rolling over. Near-term, we believe USD-THB could consolidate within the relatively tight range of 30.10-30.35.

Renewed political uncertainty is likely slow the pace of foreign buying in the THB government bond market. In fact,
interest from foreign investors had already fallen, following the government’s decision to reintroduce withholding taxes on
foreign-bond investments on 12 October 2010. The pace of foreign-investor buying of THB securities eased to THB
5.3bn during the period 1-19 November, compared with THB 72.8bn in September. Note, however, that the latest DP
case may be seen as a near-term positive for foreign-investor sentiment. This may provide some curve-flattening
impetus, but it may be short-lived in light of the expected rise in political risk. As such, domestic influence over the local
bond market may slowly re-exert itself over the next few months , and the expected delay in the Bank of Thailand’s rate
hikes (we don’t expect the central bank to hike until Q4-2011) and moderating growth may provide some support to
domestic bonds. Recent investor interest (both foreign and local) has been tepid at these market levels and it may
require another 10-20bps to attract demand (where the 5Y yield will be back to early July levels). Upcoming auctions,
particularly the 5Y auction in mid-December, should provide a gauge of domestic demand.

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 Standard Chartered Morning Call | 30 November 2010

Africa
South Africa – SAGBs hit hard as foreign investors take some risk off
Heightened concern over tensions on the Korean peninsula and lingering debt woes in Europe led to a sharp reversal of
global risk appetite last week, with investors reducing their exposure to emerging markets ahead of year-end. South
African Go vernment Bond (SAGB) yields backed up by more than 40bps across the curve over the period, in what
appeared to be a foreign-driven sell-off as SAGB sales by non-residents amounted to ZAR 25bn in the week ended 26
November (net sales over the week amount to ZAR 2.7bn). Last week’s proposals by the South African government to
limit currency gains have also shaken investor appetite for local debt. The measures themselves, however – which point
to looser monetary policy with lower interest rates, higher foreign reserves and the creation of a sovereign wealth fund –
look relatively bond-supportive.

Indeed, while global uncertainties could lead to a short-term reduction in capital flows, the local outlook remains
favourable to the bond market. Q3 GDP growth was much weaker than expected, at 2.6% y/y from 3% in Q2, below a
consensus of 3.5% y/y. Although inflation began to edge up in October, with CPI inflation at 3.4% y/y from the probable
trough of 3.2% y/y in September, pressure is likely to remain moderate (thanks to the stronger currency), allowing CPI
inflation to remain comfortably within the central bank’s target band. With Tuesday’s budget announcement likely to show
a further reduction in the fiscal deficit, current bond valuations appear relatively attractive , while positioning, which was
long a week ago, now appears more favourable. We therefore maintain our long position on the 10Y bond for now (see
Africa Rates Strategy Update, 24 August 2010), but will look to take profit opportunistically, as we remain wary of the
negative global sentiment.

Latin America
Brazil – The inner policy circle for Rousseff i s taking shape
This week should bring additional announcements from President-elect Dilma Rousseff about the key members of her
inner circle policy team. This includes the role to be played by Antonio Palocci, the well-respected former finance minister
from President Lula’s first term. Local sources think Palocci will be named Rousseff’s chief of staff. Another key role to be
announced is the trade and development minister.

Last week’s announcement of key economic advisors has been taken well. Guido Mantega will stay in his post as finance
minister and Alexandre Tombini will be elevated from central bank board member to the president of the central bank.
Tombini has strong academic and policy credentials and will bring about a smooth transition from outgoing central bank
president Meirelles. Rousseff said that these appointments will ensure continuity of economic policy from Lula’s
government. This is better than a worsening of policy relative to the Lula government, but there is room for better policy.
One immediate issue is the state of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies which the Lula government used during
the crisis to boost the economy. While appropriate then, they have turned pro-cyclical now. Inflation is well above the
4.5% inflation target, and inflation expectations have been steadily rising.

With above-trend growth in 2010-11, the new government must tighten policy. The appointment of Tombin i was an
important step towards the credibility of the inflation target. The next step is action. The market is currently pricing in
about 200bps of rate hikes between now and end-2011. We have been expecting 75bps in hikes, so 200bps looks
excessive. We do like the strategy of receiving rates in the Jan 12 DI contract, but there is the risk that implied rates will
move higher still unless strong action is taken. Since a meaningful fiscal tightening is unlikely, in our opinion, monetary
policy is going to have to do all the heavy lifting. The longer the government waits to tighten policy, the steeper the local
yield curve will become.

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 Standard Chartered Morning Call | 30 November 2010

G10
Australia – We expect Q3 GDP growth eased to 0.5% q/q
After a solid rebound of 1.2% q/q in Q2, we expect growth in the third quarter eased to 0.5% q/q, or 3.4% y/y. This was
largely owing to easing housing-market activity, given the expiry of the first-time home-buyer tax credit. House prices grew
by a mere 0.1% q/q in Q3, and transaction volumes moderated during the quarter. Meanwhile, there has been a mild
correction in iron ore prices that has moderated the terms of trade. The trade surplus receded to AUD 5.69bn in Q3 from
AUD 8.23bn in Q2, on the back of a temporary slowdown in China and ‘double-dip’ recession concerns in August. Even so,
solid gains in employment underpin demand-pull inflationary concerns. We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to
maintain its tightening bias , but rate hikes should be more gradual in the current cycle, given external uncertainties.

Euro area – Agreement on Ireland’s bailout package

Details have emerged over the weekend on the EUR 85bn rescue package to Ireland (for details, see On the Gr ound,
29 November 2010, ‘Ireland – The EU/IMF bailout programme’), of which 45bn will come from European governments.
Bond-market participants were reassured after the idea to make senior bondholders share the cost of the rescue was
rejected. The agreement on Ireland coincided with a concession for Greece, which obtained an extension by four and a
half years on its debt repayment obligations following its EUR 110bn bailout in May 2010. Nevertheless pressure from
financial markets on the euro-area periphery did not diminish. Yields on Spanish 10Y bonds reached an 8-year high,
while the yields on Irish government bonds of same maturity escalated above 9.4%. The EUR continued its slide against
the USD, approaching 1.30.

Financial markets are still ignoring s igns of robust activity in the core euro-area countries. The EU Commission survey
released on Monday indicated continued momentum. The economic confidence index for November escalated to 105.3
after 103.8 in October (revised from 104.1), the highest in three years. Also , the business climate indicator rose to 0.96
after last month’s print was revised down to 0.91 (from 0.98). In a separate report, the EU Commission left its growth
forecasts for the euro area in 2011 unchanged at 1.5%, while seeing acceleration to 1.8% in 2012. Germany will remain
the key dri ver, with 2.2% expected next year (revised from 1.6%) and 2% in 2012. The European Union will expand more
rapidly than the single currency area, with 1.7% and 2.0% forecast in 2011 and 2012, respectively. We remain more
upbeat on the outlook for the euro area, expecting 1.7% in 2011 and 2.2% in 2012.

The European Commission releases its inflation estimate for November in the euro area on 29 November at 10.00GMT.
We expect the increase in prices to have plateaued at 1.9% y/y, driven by food and energy prices, and therefore
remaining on target. In a separate report at 10.00GMT, the European Commission will publish the euro -area
unemployment rate for October, which is set to remain unchanged at 10.1%. The breakdown by country should exhibit
continued differentiation between core countries and high-deficit peripheral countries. Germany’s unemployment change
for November (to be released at 8.55GMT) should have worsened, possibly reaching -4,000 after -3000 in October, with
the unemployment rate remaining at 7.5%.

US – House price s to decline further, but consumers are not so glum

We look for the Case-Shiller home price index to have dropped by 1.0% m/m in September. We expect the y/y change to
be the lowest since January 2010 at 0.6% y/y, down from 1.7% in August 2010. It is important to note that the Case
Shiller index, which is a 3MMA, continued to benefit until July from the boost provided by the homebuyers’ tax credit
even though the tax credit expired in April. This has allowed both existing and new home sales struggle to improve in H 2-
2010. Existing home sales are currently at 4.43mn, up from the low of 3.84mn in July after the expiration of the
homebuyers’ tax credit but still below the prior low (4.53mn) during 2008 -09. New home sales remain severely weakened
at 283,000, barely off their all-time low of 275,000. Despite the nearly record-high technical affordability of homes, the
weak labour market has kept mortgage approvals at 1997 levels throughout H2 -2010. Distressed homes accounted for
35% of all sales in September, edging up from 34% in August, and notably higher than the 29% a year earlier. Inventory
of new homes (8.6 months) and existing homes (10.5 months) remains elevated compared to the series historical
average of six months. Both these factors will continue to place downward pressure on prices.

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 Standard Chartered Morning Call | 30 November 2010

The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence (November) is expected to have risen to 53.0 from 50.2
previously. This is likely to be driven by the improvement in the labour market, primarily initial jobless claims, which
reached their lowest point since July 2008. We would also expect some positive effect from the 2.3% rise in equity levels
so far in November against October’s performance. These two improvements should overshadow any effect from the
pick-up in November’s gasoline prices, which rose 2.3%. October’s labour-market differential at -42.6 was the weakest it
has been since February. This reflects the weary labour market we have seen since payroll losses peaked in January
2009, which has largely stalled the Conference Board and University of Michigan surveys since April 2009. While US
consumers remain pessimistic, they will continue to hold off on big -ticket purchases, depressing consumer spending
while maintaining decade-high saving levels.

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 Standard Chartered Morning Call | 30 November 2010

Table 1: Global markets bond/swap monitors

Basis
Bond Swap Bond swap
swaps/NDS
Tenor yield ± bps rate ± bps rate ± bps Last ± bps
Majors
USD 2Y 0.51 n/c 0.76 -1 - - 25 -1
10Y 2.84 -3 2.97 -4 - - 13 -1
EUR 2Y 0.91 -2 1.62 +1 -46 -2 71 +3
10Y 2.74 n/c 3.12 +3 -24 -1 38 +3
GBP 2Y 0.99 -2 1.37 -4 -4 +1 38 -2
10Y 3.34 n/c 3.48 n/c -11 n/c 14 n/c
JPY 2Y 0.20 n/c 0.42 +1 -49 +1 22 +1
10Y 1.19 n/c 1.25 -1 -42 +3 6 -1
Asia
CNY 2Y 2.77 -1 3.46 -8 -1.08 -20 * 69 -7
10Y 4.02 +3 4.30 -4 1.45 -5 * 28 -7
HKD 2Y 0.57 +1 0.69 -1 -23 +2 12 -2
10Y 2.50 n/c 2.88 -2 -25 -1 38 -2
TWD 2Y 0.56 -7 0.92 -1 -1 n/c 36 +6
10Y 1.41 +1 1.73 n/c -2 n/c 32 -1
KRW 3Y 3.22 -8 3.52 -7 -205 -4 30 +1
10Y 4.42 -5 4.10 -8 -150 -2 -32 -3
#
INR 2Y 7.28 +1 6.85 +6 4.80 -5 * -43 +5
#
10Y 8.01 +4 7.41 n/c 5.30 +5 * -60 -4
IDR 3Y 5.55 -38 7.35 n/c - - 180 +38
10Y 7.33 -20 - - - - - -
MYR 3Y 3.14 n/c 3.43 +2 2.05 n/c * 29 +2
10Y 3.83 n/c 4.43 +1 2.70 n/c * 60 +1
PHP 2Y 3.50 n/c 2.95 n/c 1.65 -5 * -55 n/c
10Y 5.82 n/c 5.50 n/c 3.85 n/c * -32 n/c
PKR 3Y 13.38 n/c - - - - - -
10Y 13.68 n/c - - - - - -
SGD 2Y 0.45 +1 0.93 n/c -11 +1 48 -1
10Y 2.31 +1 2.77 -2 -21 n/c 46 -3
##
THB 2Y 2.34 +6 1.89 +10 -35 n/c -45 +4
##
10Y 3.64 +12 3.59 +4 -91 +1 -5 -8
VND 2Y 10.70 +4 - - - - - -
5Y 11.45 +6 - - - - - -
Africa/Middle East/Latam
AED 2Y - - 2.35 n/c - - - -
10Y - - 4.72 -4 - - - -
SAR 2Y - - 1.17 -2 - - - -
10Y - - 3.91 -6 - - - -
TRY 2Y 7.92 +7 8.77 -2 -180 n/c 85 -9
5Y 8.13 n/c 9.55 n/c -185 n/c 142 n/c
KES 2Y 3.68 n/c - - - - - -
10Y 8.65 n/c - - - - - -
NGN 2Y 9.84 +44 - - - - - -
10Y 12.64 +434 - - - - - -
ZAR 2Y 6.23 n/c 6.00 +10 6 n/c -23 +9
10Y 8.41 +8 7.94 +18 6 n/c -47 +10
BRL 2Y 12.39 +4 12.34 +14 - - -5 +10
5Y 12.41 +12 12.20 +12 - - -21 n/c
MXN 3Y 5.73 +7 5.87 +12 - - 14 +5
10Y 6.87 +3 7.95 +2 - - 108 -1
* CNY, INR, MYR, PHP = NDS; # INR = MIFOR swaps; ## THB = CCS

Note: All changes are against levels captured at 23:30 GMT the previous business day;
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Standard Chartered Research

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 Standard Chartered Morning Call | 30 November 2010

Table 2: FX/equity/short-term rates monitors

FX fwd pips X-IBOR
FX/equity Last Change % Chng Tenor Last Change rate ± bps
Majors
USD S&P 500 1,188.47 -0.93 -0.08% 1M - - 0.26 n/c
3M - - 0.30 n/c
6M - - 0.46 n/c
1Y - - 0.78 n/c
EUR FX spot 1.3121 -0.0120 -0.91% 1M -2 n/c 0.75 n/c
3M -6 n/c 0.97 n/c
DAX 6,697.97 -151.01 -2.25% 6M -13 -1 1.21 n/c
1Y -27 -2 1.49 n/c
GBP FX spot 1.5573 -0.0020 -0.13% 1M -4 n/c 0.58 n/c
3M -10 -1 0.74 n/c
FTSE 100 5,550.95 -117.75 -2.12% 6M -19 -1 1.03 n/c
1Y -41 +3 1.49 n/c
JPY FX spot 84.25 0.15 0.18% 1M -4 -1 0.12 n/c
3M -10 +1 0.19 n/c
NIKKEI 225 10,039.56 -40.20 -0.40% 6M -24 +2 0.36 n/c
1Y -61 +3 0.59 -1
Asia
CNY FX spot (onshore) 6.6605 -0.0081 -0.12% 1M 170 +51 # 3.60 +9
3M 20 -44 3.19 +6
SHCOMP 2,871.70 -26.56 -0.92% 6M -300 +1 3.03 +2
1Y -1,055 +26 3.08 +2
HKD FX spot 7.7663 0.0017 0.02% 1M -17 n/c 0.17 +1
3M -52 n/c 0.26 +1
HSI 22,877.25 -177.43 -0.78% 6M -103 +2 0.40 +2
1Y -225 -3 0.74 +2
TWD FX spot (onshore) 30.4235 -0.0425 -0.14% 1M -0.01 -0.02 # 0.59 n/c
3M -0.18 -0.02 0.67 n/c
TWSE 8,312.15 -37.84 -0.46% 6M -0.38 -0.02 0.79 n/c
1Y -0.68 -0.02 1.07 n/c
KRW FX spot 1,165.50 9.55 0.82% 1M -250 n/c 2.63 n/c
3M -900 n/c 2.80 n/c
KOSPI 1,901.80 -25.88 -1.36% 6M -1500 n/c 2.92 n/c
1Y -2500 n/c 3.22 -2
INR FX spot 45.94 0.11 0.24% 1M 28 -2 # 6.95 +10
3M 71 +2 6.85 +5
BSE SENSEX 19,136.61 -181.55 -0.95% 6M 124 +2 6.85 +8
1Y 225 n/c 6.84 +5
MYR FX spot 3.15 0.00 -0.05% 1M 66 3 2.84 n/c
3M 177 -2 2.97 n/c
KLCI 1,492.05 -4.44 -0.30% 6M 350 2 3.01 n/c
1Y 630 -13 3.12 n/c
SGD FX spot 1.3207 0.0008 0.06% 1M 0 +0 0.29 +4
3M 0 +0 0.31 +3
FSSTI 3,158.08 -1.15 -0.04% 6M 0 +0 0.47 +1
1Y 1 +2 - -
THB FX spot 30.22 -0.04 -0.13% 1M 2 -0 ** 1.80 n/c
3M 4 -0 1.90 n/c
SETI 991.71 -4.71 -0.47% 6M 9 -0 2.00 n/c
1Y 19 +1 2.15 n/c
IDR FX spot 9,016 11 0.12% 1M 47 +4 # 6.23 -2
3M 129 -2 6.68 -3
JCI 3,642.50 -59.51 -1.63% 6M 265 +5 6.94 -1
1Y 553 -3 7.18 +3
PHP FX spot 44.31 0.16 0.36% 1M -0.07 n/c # -0.44 n/c
3M -0.06 n/c 0.19 n/c
PSEi 4,097.49 n/c 0.00% 6M 0.00 n/c 1.38 n/c
1Y 0.17 n/c 1.63 n/c
PKR FX spot 85.85 -0.07 -0.08% 1M 76 n/c 13.03 +21
3M 228 n/c 13.14 +8
KSE 11,145.02 +9.68 0.09% 6M 442 n/c 13.41 +6
1Y 915 n/c 13.83 +6
VND FX spot 19,498 0.00 0.00% 1M 104 -72 12.81 n/c
3M 549 +176 13.40 n/c
VNINDEX 439.94 +0.09 0.02% 6M 1051 n/c 13.46 n/c
1Y 1996 n/c - -
# NDF forward points; ** onshore forward points; ## OIS; ### onshore THBFIX

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 Standard Chartered Morning Call | 30 November 2010

Table 2: FX/equity/short-term rates monitors (cont’d)

FX fwd pips X-IBOR
FX/equity Last Change % Chng Tenor Last Change rate ± bps
Africa/Middle East/Latam
AED FX spot 3.6730 0.0000 0.00% 1M 3 +68 1.64 -1
3M 8 -186 2.14 n/c
DFMGI 1,674.77 -7.46 -0.45% 6M 16 +1 2.38 n/c
SAR FX spot 3.7502 -0.0004 -0.01% 1M -9 -2 0.35 n/c
3M -31 n/c 0.75 n/c
SASEIDX 6,309.97 +18.67 0.30% 6M -60 -1 0.85 n/c
TRY FX spot 1.5047 0.0173 1.15% 1M 69 +5 7.21 n/c
3M 203 +6 7.69 +1
XU100 64,072.16 -2,075.58 -3.24% 6M 422 +18 7.93 n/c
NGN FX spot 150.75 0.00 0.00% 1M - - 10.63 -21
3M - - 12.50 +8
NGSE 24,665.50 +51.05 0.21% 6M - - 13.17 +29
ZAR FX spot 7.13 -0.02 -0.25% 1M 361 +29 5.43 n/c
3M 961 +6 5.55 n/c
JSE Africa Top40 IX 27,279.10 -451.33 -1.65% 6M 1,905 +28 5.68 n/c
BRL FX spot 1.7182 -0.0087 -0.51% 1M 118 +8 10.73 +3
3M 335 +9 10.97 +8
IBOV 67,908.18 -317.92 -0.47% 6M 694 +10 11.47 +14
MXN FX spot 12.49 0.00 -0.03% 1M 0.04 +0.0 4.87 -1
3M 0.10 -0.0 - -
MEXBOL 36,630.82 -273.71 -0.75% 6M 0.22 +0.0 - -
*All changes are against levels captured at 23:30 GMT the previous business day;
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Standard Chartered Research
Table 3: Ke y commodity indices
Last close Change % Change
Gold 1,368.00 +4.25 0.31%

LME 3,696.70 n/c 0.00%

CRB Index 302.89 +1.76 0.58%

WTI Cushing 85.56 +1.80 2.10%

*All changes are against levels captured at 23:30 GMT the previous business day;
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Standard Chartered Research
Table 4: FX crosses
Level 1-day chg YTD chg YTD high YTD low Level 1-day chg YTD chg YTD high YTD low
AUD-JPY 81.17 +0.06 -3.14 87.81 72.78 BRL-MXN 7.2669 +0.0342 -0.2067 7.4735 6.8623
EUR-BRL 2.2545 -0.0321 -0.2257 2.6112 2.2177 JPY-KRW 13.8347 +0.0889 +1.3813 13.3481 11.7639
EUR-CNY 8.7393 -0.0907 -1.0997 9.9107 8.3164 PHP-IDR 203.47 -0.50 -0.16 203.66 199.53
EUR-GBP 0.8426 -0.0066 -0.0530 0.9112 0.8460 SGD-INR 34.78 +0.06 +1.67 33.21 31.79
EUR-JPY 110.54 -0.81 -22.66 133.82 111.71 SGD-MYR 2.3870 -0.0026 -0.0423 2.4396 2.2958
EUR-MXN 16.3837 -0.1545 -2.1544 18.5500 15.5734 TRY-ZAR 4.7428 -0.0631 -0.1994 5.1182 4.7633
*All changes are against levels captured at 23:30 GMT the previous business day;
Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Standard Chartered Research

Chart 1: Standard Chartered Risk Appetite Measure (SCRAM)

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
Dec-08

Oct-09

Dec-09

Oct-10
Jan-09

Feb-09

Mar-09

Apr-09

Jun-09

Jul-09

Aug-09

Sep-09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10
Nov-08

May-09

Nov-09

May-10

Nov-10

Daily RAI Upper Threshold Low er Threshold Latest

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters, Standard Chartered Research

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 Standard Chartered Morning Call | 30 November 2010

Disclosures Appendix
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related to the specif ic recommendations or views contained in this research report. On a general basis, the effic acy of recommendations
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 Standard Chartered Morning Call | 30 November 2010

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Data available as of 20:30 GMT 29 November 2010. This document is released at 21:00 GMT 29 November 2010.
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