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Abstract – Reliable effort estimation remains an ongoing the projected environments, whereas the accuracy can be
challenge to software engineers. Accurate effort estimation is the defined based on understanding the calibration of the software
state of art of software engineering, effort estimation of software data. Since the precision and reliability of the effort estimation
is the preliminary phase between the client and the business is very important for the competitiveness of software
enterprise. The relationship between the client and the business companies, the enterprises and researchers have put their
enterprise begins with the estimation of the software. The maximum effort to develop the accurate models to estimate
credibility of the client to the business enterprise increases with effort near to accurate levels. There are many estimation
the accurate estimation. Effort estimation often requires models have been proposed and can be categorized based on
generalizing from a small number of historical projects.
their basic formulation schemes; estimation by expert [5],
Generalization from such limited experience is an inherently
analogy based estimation schemes [6], algorithmic methods
under constrained problem. Accurate estimation is a complex
process because it can be visualized as software effort prediction, including empirical methods [7], rule induction methods [8],
as the term indicates prediction never becomes an actual. This artificial neural network based approaches [9] [17] [18],
work follows the basics of the empirical software effort Bayesian network approaches [19], decision tree based
estimation models. The goal of this paper is to study the empirical methods [21] and fuzzy logic based estimation schemes [10]
software effort estimation. The primary conclusion is that no [20].
single technique is best for all situations, and that a careful Among these diversified models, empirical estimation
comparison of the results of several approaches is most likely to
models are found to be possibly accurate compared to other
produce realistic estimates.
estimation schemes and COCOMO, SLIM, SEER-SEM and FP
Keywords-Software Estimation Models, Conte’s Criteria, analysis schemes are popular in practice in the empirical
Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test. category [24] [25]. In case of empirical estimation models, the
estimation parameters are commonly derived from empirical
data that are usually collected from various sources of
I. INTRODUCTION historical or passed projects. Accurate effort and cost
Software effort estimation is one of the most critical and estimation of software applications continues to be a critical
complex, but an inevitable activity in the software development issue for software project managers [23]. There are many
processes. Over the last three decades, a growing trend has introductions, modifications and updates on empirical
been observed in using variety of software effort estimation estimation models. A common modification among most of the
models in diversified software development processes. Along models is to increase the number of input parameters and to
with this tremendous growth, it is also realized the essentiality assign appropriate values to them. Though some models have
of all these models in estimating the software development been inundated with more number of inputs and output features
costs and preparing the schedules more quickly and easily in and thereby the complexity of the estimation schemes is
the anticipated environments. Although a great amount of increased, but also the accuracy of these models has shown
research time, and money have been devoted to improving with little improvement. Although they are diversified, they are
accuracy of the various estimation models, due to the inherent not generalized well for all types of environments [13]. Hence
uncertainty in software development projects as like complex there is no silver bullet estimation scheme for different
and dynamic interaction factors, intrinsic software complexity, environments and the available models are environment
pressure on standardization and lack of software data, it is specific.
unrealistic to expect very accurate effort estimation of software
development processes [1]. Though there is no proof on II. COCOMO ESTIMATION MODEL
software cost estimation models to perform consistently
accurate within 25% of the actual cost and 75% of the time A. COCOMO 81
[30], still the available cost estimation models extending their COCOMO 81 (Constructive Cost Model) is an empirical
support for intended activities to the possible extents. The estimation scheme proposed in 1981 [29] as a model for
accuracy of the individual models decides their applicability in estimating effort, cost, and schedule for software projects. It
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was derived from the large data sets from 63 software projects variables, which is highly dependent on development the
ranging in size from 2,000 to 100,000 lines of code, and uncertainty at the input level of the COCOMO yields
programming languages ranging from assembly to PL/I. These uncertainty at the output, which leads to gross estimation error
data were analyzed to discover a set of formulae that were the in the effort estimation [33]. Irrespective of these drawbacks,
best fit to the observations. These formulae link the size of the COCOMO II models are still influencing in the effort
system and Effort Multipliers (EM) to find the effort to develop estimation activities due to their better accuracy compared to
a software system. In COCOMO 81, effort is expressed as other estimation schemes.
Person Months (PM) and it can be calculated as
III. SEER-SEM ESTIMATION MODEL
15
PM a * Size b * EM i SEER (System Evaluation and Estimation of Resources) is
i 1
a proprietary model owned by Galorath Associates, Inc. In
1988, Galorath Incorporated began work on the initial version
where, of SEER-SEM which resulted in an initial solution of 22,000
“a” and “b” are the domain constants in the model. It lines of code. SEER (SEER-SEM) is an algorithmic project
contains 15 effort multipliers. This estimation scheme accounts management software application designed specifically to
the experience and data of the past projects, which is extremely estimate, plan and monitor the effort and resources required for
complex to understand and apply the same. any type of software development and/or maintenance project.
SEER, which comes from the noun, referring to one having the
Cost drives have a rating level that expresses the impact of ability to foresee the future, relies on parametric algorithms,
the driver on development effort, PM. These rating can range knowledge bases, simulation-based probability, and historical
from Extra Low to Extra High. For the purpose of quantitative precedents to allow project managers, engineers, and cost
analysis, each rating level of each cost driver has a weight analysts to accurately estimate a project's cost schedule, risk
associated with it. The weight is called Effort Multiplier. The and effort before the project is started. Galorath chose
average EM assigned to a cost driver is 1.0 and the rating level Windows due to the ability to provide a more graphical user
associated with that weight is called Nominal. environment, allowing more robust management tradeoffs and
understanding of what drives software projects.[4]
B. COCOMO II
This model is based upon the initial work of Dr. Randall
Jensen. The mathematical equations used in SEER are not
In 1997, an enhanced scheme for estimating the effort for available to the public, but the writings of Dr. Jensen make the
software development activities, which is called as COCOMO basic equations available for review. The basic equation, Dr.
II. In COCOMO II, the effort requirement can be calculated as Jensen calls it the "software equation" is:
17
S e Cte ( Ktd ) 0.5
PM a * Size E * EM i
i 1
where,
5 ‘S’ is the effective lines of code, ‘ct’ is the effective
where E B 0 . 01 * SF j developer technology constant, ‘k’ is the total life cycle cost in
j 1 man-years, and ‘td’ is the development time in years.
COCOMO II is associated with 31 factors; LOC measure as This equation relates the effective size of the system and the
the estimation variable, 17 cost drives, 5 scale factors, 3 technology being applied by the developer to the
adaptation percentage of modification, 3 adaptation cost drives implementation of the system. The technology factor is used to
and requirements & volatility. Cost drives are used to capture calibrate the model to a particular environment. This factor
characteristics of the software development that affect the considers two aspects of the production technology -- technical
effort to complete the project. and environmental. The technical aspects include those dealing
COCOMO II used 31 parameters to predict effort and time with the basic development capability: Organization
[11] [12] and this larger number of parameters resulted in capabilities, experience of the developers, development
having strong co-linearity and highly variable prediction practices and tools etc. The environmental aspects address the
accuracy. Besides these meritorious claims, COCOMO II specific software target environment: CPU time constraints,
estimation schemes are having some disadvantages. The system reliability, real-time operation, etc.
underlying concepts and ideas are not publicly defined and the The SEER-SEM developers have taken the approach to
model has been provided as a black box to the users [26]. This include over 30 input parameters, including the ability to run
model uses LOC (Lines of Code) as one of the estimation Monte Carlo simulation to compensate for risk [2].
variables, whereas Fenton et. al [27] explored the shortfalls of Development modes covered include object oriented, reuse,
the LOC measure as an estimation variable. The COCOMO COTS, spiral, waterfall, prototype and incremental
also uses FP (Function Point) as one of the estimation
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development. Languages covered are 3rd and 4th generation Outputs and Interfaces: many capability metrics, plus
languages (C++, FORTRAN, COBOL, Ada, etc.), as well as hundreds of reports and charts; trade-off analyses with
application generators. It allows staff capability, required side-byside comparison of alternatives; integration
design and process standards, and levels of acceptable with other Windows applications plus user
development risk to be input as constraints [15]. Figure 1 is customizable interfaces.
adapted from a Galorath illustration and shows gross categories
of model inputs and outputs, but each of these represents Aside from SEER-SEM, Galorath, Inc. offers a suite of
dozens of specific input and output possibilities and many tools addressing hardware as well as software concerns.
parameters. One of particular interest to software estimators might be
SEER-SEM, a tool designed to perform sizing of software
Effort projects.
Size
Cost The study done by Thibodeau in 1981 and a study done by
Personnel
Schedule IIT Research Institute (IITRI) in 1989 states that they
Environment SEER-SEM calibrated SEER-SEM model using three databases. The
Risk
significance of this study is as follows:
Complexity Maintenance
1. Results greatly improved with calibration, in fact, as high
Constraints Reliability
as a factor of five.
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It makes use of Rayleigh curve referred from [14] as shown design and coding, because requirement and specification
in figure 2 for effort prediction. This curve represents engineering is not included in the model.
manpower measured in person per time as a function of time. It
is usually expressed in personyear/ year (PY/YR). It can be Complexity: The SLIM model’s complexity is relatively
expressed as low. For COCOMO the complexity increases with the level of
detail of the model. For COCOMO I the increasing levels of
detail and complexity are the three model types: basic,
dy 2
intermediate, and detailed. For COCOMO II the level of
2 at
2 Kate complexity increases according to the following order:
dt Application Composition, Early Design, Post Architecture.
Automation of Model Development: The Putnam method is
where, supported by a tool called SLIM (Software Life-Cycle
dy/dt is the manpower utilization per unit time, “ t” Management). The tool incorporates an estimation of the
is the elapsed time, “a” is the parameter that affects the shape required parameter technology factor from the description of
of the curve and “K” is the area under the curve. There are two the project. SLIM determines the minimum time to develop a
important terms associated with this curve: given software system. Several commercial tools exist to use
COCOMO models.
1) Manpower Build up given by D0=K/td3
Application Coverage: SLIM aims at investigating
2) Productivity = Lines of Code/ Cumulative Manpower i.e. relationships among staffing levels, schedule, and effort. The
P=S/E and S= CK1/3td4/3,where C is the technology factor which SLIM tool provides facilities to investigate trade-offs among
reflects the effects of various factors on productivity such as cost drivers and the effects of uncertainty in the size estimate.
hardware constraints, program complexity, programming
environment and personal experience. Generalizability: The SLIM model is claimed to be
generally valid for large systems. COCOMO I was developed
The SLIM model uses two equations: the software the within a traditional development process, and was a priori not
manpower equation and software productivity level equation suitable for incremental development. Different development
The SLIM model uses Rayleigh distribution to estimate to modes are distinguished (organic, semidetached, embedded).
estimate project schedule and defect rate. Two key attributes COCOMO II is adapted to feed the needs of new development
used in SLIM method are productivity Index (PI) and practices such as development processes tailored to COTS, or
Manpower Buildup Index (MBI). The PI is measure of process reusable software availability. No empirical results are
efficiency (cost-effectiveness of assets), and the MBI currently available regarding the investigation these
determines the effects on total project effort that result from capabilities.
variations in the development schedule [A Probabilistic
Model]. Comprehensiveness: Putnam’s method does not consider
phase or activity work breakdown. The SLIM tool provides
Inputs Required: To use the SLIM method, it is necessary information in terms of the effort per major activity per month
to estimate system size, to determine the technology factor, and throughout development. In addition, the tool provides error
appropriate values of the manpower acceleration. Technology estimates and feasibility analyses. As the model does not
factor and manpower acceleration can be calculated using consider the requirement phase, estimation before design or
similar past projects. System size in terms of KDSI is to be coding is not possible. Both COCOMO I and II are extremely
subjectively estimated. This is a disadvantage, because of the comprehensive. They provide detailed activity distributions of
difficulty of estimating KDSI at the beginning of a project and effort and schedule. They also include estimates for
the dependence of the measure on the programming language. maintenance effort, and an adjustment for code re-use.
Completeness of Estimate: The SLIM model provides COCOMO II provides prototyping effort when using the
estimates for effort, duration, and staffing information for the Application Composition model. The Architectural Design
total life cycle and the development part of the life cycle. model involves estimation of the actual development and
COCOMO I provides equations to estimate effort, duration, maintenance phase. The granularity is about the same as for
and handles the effect of re-using code from previously COCOMO I.
developed software. COCOMO II provides cost, effort, and
schedule estimation, depending on the model used (i.e., V. REVIC ESTIMATION MODEL
depending on the degree of product understanding and
marketplace of the project). It handles the effect of reuse, re-
engineering, and maintenance adjusting the used size measures REVIC (REVised version of Intermediate COCOMO) is a
using parameters such as percentage of code modification, or direct descendent of COCOMO. Ourada [16] was one of the
percentage of design modification first to analyze validation, using a large Air Force database for
calibration of the REVIC model. There are several key
Assumptions: SLIM assumes the Rayleigh curve
differences between REVIC and the 1981 version of
distribution of staff loading. The underlying Rayleigh curve
COCOMO, however.
assumption does not hold for small and medium sized projects.
Cost estimation is only expected to take place at the start of the
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REVIC adds an Ada development mode to the three under study. These issues include: level of system definition,
original COCOMO modes; Organic, Semi-detached, system timing and criticality, documentation, etc. A complexity
and Embedded. multiplier is then derived and used to alter the preliminary
budget and schedule estimates from Tier II. The software
REVIC includes Systems Engineering as a starting system effort estimation is then calculated. Tier IV and V are
phase as opposed to Preliminary Design for not necessary for an effort estimation. Tier IV addresses the in-
COCOMO. scope maintenance associated with the project.
REVIC includes Development, Test, and Evaluation as
the ending phase, as opposed to COCOMO ending
with Integration and Test. The output of Tier IV is the monthly man-loading for the
maintenance life-cycle. Tier V provides the user with a
The REVIC basic coefficients and exponents were capability to perform risk analysis on the sizing, schedule and
derived from the analysis of a database of completed budget data. The actual mathematical expressions used in
DoD projects. On the average, the estimates obtained SASET are published in the User's Guide, but the Guide is very
with REVIC will be greater than the comparable unclear as to what they mean and how to use them
estimates obtained with COCOMO.
VII. COSTMODL ESTIMATION MODEL
REVIC uses PERT (Program Evaluation and Review
Technique) statistical techniques to determine the COSTMODL (Cost MODeL) is a COCOMO based
lines-of-code input value, Low, high, and most estimation model developed by the NASA Johnson Space
probable estimates for each program component are Center. The program delivered on computer disk for
used to calculate the effective lines-of-code and the COSTMODL includes several versions of the original
standard deviation. The effective lines-of-code and COCOMO and a NASA developed estimation model KISS
standard deviation are then used in the estimation (Keep It Simple, Stupid). The KISS model will not be
equations rather than the linear sum of the line-of-code evaluated here, but it is very simple to understand and easy to
estimates. use; however, the calibration environment is unknown. The
REVIC includes more cost multipliers than COCOMO. COSTMODL model includes the basic COCOMO equations
Requirements volatility, security, management reserve, and modes, along with some modifications to include an Ada
and an Ada mode are added. mode and other cost multipliers.
VI. SASET ESTIMATIN MODEL The COSTMODL as delivered includes several calibrations
based upon different data sets. The user can choose one of
these calibrations or enter user specified values. The model also
SASET (Software Architecture, Sizing and Estimating
includes a capability to perform a self-calibration. The user
Tool) is a forward chaining, rule-based expert system using a
enters the necessary information and the model will "reverse"
hierarchically structured knowledge database of normalized
calculate and derive the coefficient and exponent or a
parameters to provide derived software sizing values. These
coefficient only for the input environment data. The model uses
values can be presented in many formats to include
the COCOMO cost multipliers and does not include more as
functionality, optimal development schedule, and man-loading
does REVIC. This model includes all the phases of a software
charts. SASET was developed by Martin Marietta Denver
life cycle. PERT techniques are used to estimate the input
Aerospace Corp. on contract to the Naval Center for Cost
lines-of-code in both the development and maintenance
Analysis. To use SASET, the user must first perform a
calculations
software decomposition of the system and define the
functionalities associated with the given software system [22].
VIII. STUDY OF EMPIRICAL MODELS
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the relative impact on cost/effort of the different input 100
parameters for that model. Even "objective" inputs like MMRE predicted i actual i / actual i (6)
N
where, N = total number of estimates
Security Requirements in SEER-SEM may be difficult to
confirm early in a program, and later changes may result in RMS (Root Mean Square): Now, calculate the Root Mean
substantially different cost and schedule estimates. Some Square (model’s ability to accurately forecast the individual
sensitive inputs such as the PRICE-S Productivity Factor and actual effort) for each data set. This step is a precedent to the
the SLIM PI should be calibrated from past data. If data are not next step only. Again, satisfactory results are indicated by a
available, or if consistent values of these parameters cannot be value of 25 percent or less[30].
calibrated, the model’s usefulness may be questionable.
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3. Any significant difference indicates a bias to over or cost models could be shown to be accurate. The software
under estimate. support estimation problem is further convoluted by lack of
Another performance measure of a model predicting quality software support cost data for model development,
numeric values is the correlation between predicted and actual calibration, and validation. Even if models can be shown to be
values. Correlation ranges from +1 to -1 and a correlation of +1 accurate, another effect must be considered.
means that there is a perfect positive linear relationship
between variables. And can be calculates as follows Table III summarizes the parameters used and activities
covered by the models discussed. Overall, model based
techniques are good for budgeting, tradeoff analysis, planning
The correlation coefficient for COCOMO II is 0.6952 and and control, and investment analysis. As they are calibrated to
the correlation coefficient for proposed model is 0.9985 past experience, their primary difficulty is with unprecedented
situations.
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X. CONCLUSION
Based upon the background readings, this paper states [6] Chiu NH, Huang SJ, “The Adjusted Analogy-Based Software Effort
that the existing models were highly credible; however, this Estimation Based on Similarity Distances,” Journal of Systems and
survey found this not to be so based upon the research Software, Volume 80, Issue 4, pp 628-640, 2007
performed. All the models could not predict the actual [7] Kaczmarek J, Kucharski M, “Size and Effort Estimation for
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the two key factors that influenced the estimate were project Models for Estimating Software Development Effort,” Journal of
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