Harry's Tire Shop

Probability Range Commulative Tires Random

Probability Day
(Lower) Probability Demand Number
0.05 0.00 0.05 0 1 0.7
0.1 0.05 0.15 1 2 0.5
0.2 0.15 0.35 2 3 0.5
0.3 0.35 0.65 3 4 0.7
0.2 0.65 0.85 4 5 0.7
0.15 0.85 1.00 5 6 0.8
7 0.9
Tires Demanded Frequency Percentage Cum % 8 0.7
0 0 0% 0% 9 0.8
1 0 0% 0% 10 0.8
2 0 0% 0% Average
3 2 20% 20%
4 7 70% 90%
5 1 10% 100%
10
 Generating Normal Random

Simulated
Demand
4
3
3
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
3.9
NESTLE APC
Probability Range Commulative Expected Daily
Probability Year Day
(Lower) Probability Demand
0.10 0.00 0.10 2017 0.20 1
0.20 0.10 0.30 2018 0.60 2
0.25 0.30 0.55 2019 1.00 3
4
5
6
Expected Average Daily Demand 1.8 7
Balloon Demanded Frequency Percentage Cum % 8
2 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 9
3 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 10
4 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 11
5 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 12
6 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 13
7 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 14
Total Frequency 0 15
Lead Time 0.0 16
17
18
19
20
Average Simulation
 Random Simulated
Number Demand
0.27 2018
0.64 2019
0.13 2018
0.42 2019
0.37 2019
0.75 2019
0.81 2019
0.05 2017
0.05 2017
0.39 2019
0.59 2019
0.23 2018
0.09 2017
0.40 2019
0.32 2019
0.29 2018
0.21 2018
0.82 2019
0.96 2019
0.69 2019
Average Simulation 2018.5
DEMAND FOR
FREQUENCY (YEARS) PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE
NAPC

2017 57,814 57,814/157,820 = ###

2018 47,603 47,603/157,820 = ###
2019 52,403 52,403/157,820 = ###
157,820 157,820/157,820 = 1
 INTERVAL OF
CUMULATIVE
YEAR PROBABILITY RANDOM
PROBABILITY
NUMBERS 365
1 0.37 0.37 01 to 37 0.366329
2 0.30 0.67 38 to 67 0.603257
3 0.33 1.00 68 to 00 0.996129
1.965714

RANDOM SIMULATED
YEAR
NUMBER YEARLY DEMAND

1 52 2
2 37 1
3 82 3
4 69 3
5 98 3
6 96 3
7 33 1
8 50 2
9 88 3
10 90 3
Total 10 Year Demand 24
Average Yearly Demand for NAPC 2.4
1095