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Pharma
Limited
Summary:
We
are
at
the
helm
of
witnessing
an
exciting
quarter
at
Aurobindo
Pharma.
The
company
reported
flat
revenue
in
the
last
quarter
but
with
the
approval
of
Abilify,
Namenda
in
the
current
quarter
and
fast
movement
in
the
products,
which
got
approved
in
the
latter
half
of
the
last
quarter,
we
expect
the
sales
to
grow
at
20%
over
Q2
FY
2015-‐16.
Aripiprazole's
(drug
name
of
ability)
patent
got
over
in
April
and
companies
who
got
the
initial
approval
saw
their
revenues
grow
at
an
exorbitant
rate.
Aurobindo
pharma
has
a
lot
of
competition
to
fight
against
in
order
to
gain
a
good
share
of
the
$7.3B
market.
We
can't
expect
anything
similar
like
Cymbalta
in
this
case.
The
company
has
also
got
the
approval
to
sell
generic
version
of
Namenda
in
October.
The
estimated
market
size
of
the
same
is
$1.23B.
We
believe
that
the
company's
sales
will
also
increase
with
the
help
of
increase
in
sales
of
Rolaxifene,
Entecavir
and
Omeprazole
(Drugs
for
which
company
got
approval
in
the
latter
half
of
the
last
quarter)
whose
combined
market
size
is
$1.22B.
Generic
pharma
sector
has
a
bright
next
year,
as
many
top
selling
drugs
will
lose
their
patents
in
2016.
The
estimated
size
of
those
drugs
is
worth
$20-‐25B.
India
has
become
a
very
major
player
in
the
generic
market.
The
generic
market
in
India
is
on
the
route
to
become
a
$50B
market.
Over
the
past,
Indian
companies
have
started
receiving
most
of
the
first
generic
approvals.
Taking
an
example
of
Abilify,
out
of
the
4
companies
that
got
approval
to
produce
Aripiprazole’s
generic
medicine,
3
were
Indians
(Torrent,
Alembic
and
Hetero)
and
1
was
from
Israel
(Teva).
The
stocks
of
all
Pharma
companies
have
risen
multifold
but
only
few
will
sustain
and
others
will
wither.
According
to
us,
the
price
per
share
of
Aurobindo
Pharma
should
be
in
the
Rs.600-‐650
range
but
is
currently
trading
at
34%
premium
i.e.
at
Rs.834.
We
believe
that
34%
premium
is
high
for
Aurobindo
because
of
the
reasons
presented
in
the
report.
Compared
Relatively,
the
company
is
valued
cheap
but
with
better
products
approval,
better
acquisitions
functioning,
lower
debt,
stable
growth
performance
and
high
sales
to
capital
ratio,
we
believe
that
company’s
relative
multiple
will
move
towards
or
even
become
better
than
the
Industry
average.
Q2
Numbers:
• APL
reported
revenues
of
Rs.
3362
crores
in
Q2
up
15.7%
YoY
and
0.4%
QoQ
on
account
of
increase
in
sales
through
Cefixime
(Suprax)
• EBITDA
margins
improved
by
5.2%
and
PAT
margins
improved
by
4.9%
from
Q2
2014-‐15
as
Actavis
business
has
started
registering
small
digit
profit
than
posting
losses.
Dissecting
the
Business
of
Aurobindo:
Aurobindo
has
two
main
streams
in
which
it
does
its
Business.
1)
Formulations.
2)
API’s.
API
was
it’s
main
Business
initially
but
over
the
last
decade
they
started
focusing
more
on
the
Formulations
segment
and
now
formulations
account
for
80%
of
it’s
revenue
and
20%
is
contributed
through
API’s.
FORMULATIONS:
Analysis
of
Revenue
from
Formulations
and
where
is
that
headed:
Formulations
generate
its
revenue
from
4
major
sources:
1) US
Sales
2) Europe
Sales
3) RoW
4) ARV’s
Past,
Present
and
Future
of
each
of
these
sources:
1)
US
Sales:
The
US
business,
which
constitutes
a
major
part
of
the
revenue
of
the
company,
has
5
main
channels
of
generating
revenue.
1) Aurobindo
US,
2) Auro
Life,
3) Auro
Medics,
4) Auro
Health
and
the
newly
acquired
5) Natrol.
Aurobindo
US
was
able
to
generate
revenue
of
near
around
$500m
in
2014-‐15.
Aurobindo
US
mainly
generates
its
revenue
from
Oral
Solids.
In
the
current
year,
Aurobindo
US
posted
average
growth
with
sales
increasing
because
of
approval
of
Cefixime
(Suprax).
The
US
Business
grew
by
6.6%
in
Q1
and
3.3%
in
Q2
on
QoQ
basis. This
has
made
us
question
the
base
growth
in
the
Auro
US
business.
The
whole
growth
depends
on
the
new
approvals
received
from
the
FDA
and
if
the
product
market
size
isn't
good
enough,
the
numbers
remain
on
a
flattish
note.
The
company
has
also
filed
para
IV
in
respect
of
many
products.
If
they
are
successfully
able
to
invalidate
a
patented
product,
we
can
see
good
growth
in
the
revenue
numbers
in
the
future.
The
company
got
approval
to
sell
Aripiprazole
and
Namenda
in
the
current
quarter
and
Rolaxifene,
Entecavir
and
Omeprazole
in
the
last
quarter.
We
expect
to
see
Auro
US
sales
increasing
by
20-‐25%
because
of
these
approvals.
Aurolife
is
in
the
business
of
manufacturing
controlled
substance
and
fulfilling
government
orders.
Government
orders
amounted
to
$35m
in
2014-‐15.
The
contract
received
was
for
a
period
of
5
years.
The
company
is
looking
for
receiving
government
orders
with
good
margins.
The
company
has
also
been
planning
to
raise
the
contribution
of
Controlled
Substance
in
its
revenue,
as
the
margins
in
this
segment
are
better
than
what
the
company
gets
through
sale
of
other
generic
products.
The
company
currently
has
total
10
approvals
for
Aurolife
and
16
pending
approvals.
The
Company
sells
some
of
the
Aurolife
products
through
Auro
US
and
doesn’t
provide
breakup
of
the
same.
Auromedics
is
in
the
business
of
injectable
products.
The
company
is
planning
to
enter
in
the
Injectable
segment
in
a
big
way
and
intends
to
make
it
as
it’s
biggest
source
of
revenue.
The
company
is
in
the
process
of
filing
products
with
a
market
size
of
$3B.
The
company
expects
to
file
the
same
by
beginning
of
2017.
The
products
are
very
complex
and
require
a
lot
of
research.
The
company
has
been
spending
heavily
in
the
Injectable
Segment.
It
is
not
vertically
integrated
in
Injectable
as
it
is
in
its
oral
products.
The
company
received
11
ANDA
approvals
in
the
injectable
segment
this
year
increasing
the
number
of
approvals
from
6
to
17.
The
approved
and
manufactured
products
do
not
have
a
large
market
size
and
that
is
the
reason
we
have
not
seen
a
huge
growth
in
the
revenue
numbers.
The
growth
in
US
numbers
this
year
has
come
due
to
approval
received
for
selling
Cefixime,drug
name
for
Suprax.
The
product
has
done
well
for
Aurobindo
while
allowing
better
margins.
Auro
Medics
business
in
2014-‐15
was
around
$68m
and
with
Meropenem,
angiomax
and
other
products,
we
expect
that
to
increase
to
$75-‐80m.
Aurohealth
manufactures
and
sells
OTC
products.
It
is
a
new
avenue
for
the
company
and
through
proper
retail
distribution
channel
the
company
expects
to
increase
its
US
revenues.
Currently
its
share
is
insignificant.
Natrol
is
into
the
business
of
Neutraceutical’s
and
had
posted
revenue
of
around
$100m
in
2013-‐2014.
Natrol
was
acquired
in
December
2014
and
posted
revenue
of
$31m
from
Dec
4,
2014
to
March
31,
2015.
Aurobindo
acquired
Natrol
for
$132m
and
recorded
goodwill
of
around
Rs.465.6
crs.
Aurobindo
filed
a
complaint
against
Natrol
after
learning
discrepancies
in
the
value
of
acquired
assets
under
the
asset
purchase
agreement.
Aurobindo
even
might
have
to
assume
certain
disputed
liabilities
of
Natrol.
Clearly,
Aurobindo
didn't
acquire
Natrol
with
proper
due
diligence.
The
company
might
have
to
face
material
loses
in
the
future
in
this
respect
and
the
acquisition
cost
might
increase
from
$132m.
Goodwill
and
brands
were
not
amortized
in
2014-‐15.
We
might
see
reduction
in
EBIT
levels
in
the
future.
The
company
has
tied
up
with
Citron
Pharma
to
distribute
its
product
in
the
market
and
is
paid
distribution
margins.
Aurobindo
hasn’t
disclosed
the
margins,
which
are
paid
to
Citron.
The
tie
up
restricts
the
upside,
which
Aurobindo
can
enjoy
on
good
selling
products.
The
company
also
has
a
Joint
venture
with
Celon
labs
for
the
manufacturing
of
Hormones
and
Oncology
Products
in
USA.
Aurobindo’s
share
in
the
Joint
Venture
is
60%
while
the
rest
is
with
Celon
Labs.
The
spurt
of
12%
growth
in
the
below
chart
is
because
of
the
addition
of
Natrol’s
revenue.
Growth
in
1st
Quarter
is
mainly
because
of
Cefixime
(Suprax).
US
Sales
otherwise
shows
a
normal
growth.
We
expect
the
sales
to
increase
by
20%
in
Q3
to
Rs.1773
Crs.
2000
0.25
1800
0.20
0.20
1600
1400
0.15
1200
0.12
1000
0.10
US
Sales
800
0.07
Growth
0.05
0.05
600
0.03
0.02
0.03
400
0.00
0.00
200
0
-‐0.05
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
E
Q4
E
14-‐15
15-‐16
Over
2015-‐2018E,
we
expect
US
sales
to
post
a
CAGR
growth
of
29%.
2)
Europe
Sales:
Aurobindo
acquired
Actavis’s
Western
Europe
Business
and
started
posting
revenues
from
April
1,
2014.
Actavis
has
helped
Aurobindo
to
increase
its
presence
in
7
countries
of
Western
Europe.
Through
the
acquisition
of
Arrow
Generiques,
Aurobindo
is
planning
to
increase
its
presence
in
France
in
a
major
way.
Actavis
had
sales
of
around
$320m
in
2014-‐15.
We
can’t
compare
Europe
Business
before
and
after
2014
but
the
revenue
after
Actavis’s
acquisition
is
hovering
in
the
$125-‐130m
range
per
quarter.
We
expect
it
to
post
revenue
in
the
same
range
for
the
next
2
quarters.
The
company
had
made
it
pretty
clear
that
they
are
focusing
on
improving
the
margins
rather
than
increasing
the
sales.
We
are
expecting
Aurobindo
to
post
single
digit
margins
from
Actavis’s
Business.
Once
the
company
is
able
to
generate
margins,
they
will
focus
on
increasing
the
revenues.
We
expect
a
CAGR
of
6%
over
2015-‐2018E.
Actavis
held
their
Western
Europe
business
for
sale
after
their
management
decided
to
focus
more
on
Central
and
other
parts
of
Europe.
Aurobindo
acquired
the
assets
and
posted
a
capital
reserve
of
Rs.78.75
crs.
Actavis
was
losing
23m
on
EBITDA,
which
Aurobindo
was
able
to
bring
down
to
10m
in
2014-‐15
and
posted
a
small
single
digit
EBITDA
profit
after
18
months
of
acquisition.
Actavis's
gross
receivables
and
potential
uncollectible
debtors
amounted
to
$57.6m
and
$8.7m
included
firms
and
government
of
Italy,
Spain,
Portugal
and
Greece.
Actavis
didn't
write
off
any
amount
of
this
and
therefore
Aurobindo
might
have
to
write
off
some
of
this
in
the
future.
If
we
are
able
to
bring
the
Actavis
business
PAT
neutral
by
year-‐end,
we
believe
we
made
a
sound
deal
by
acquiring
the
loss
making
business
of
Actavis.
The
company
is
in
the
process
of
moving
products
from
Europe
to
India.
They
have
already
brought
3
products.
The
company
is
in
the
process
of
raising
$600m
required
for
complex
filing
and
registrations
needed
to
shift
from
Europe
to
India.
Over
2015-‐2018E,
we
expect
US
sales
to
post
a
CAGR
growth
of
6%.
3)
RoW:
The
RoW
market
contributes
around
5%
of
the
revenue
share
for
Aurobindo.
RoW
mainly
includes
countries
like
Brazil,
Canada,
South
Africa,
Mexico
and
others.
RoW
market
used
to
float
in
the
$18-‐21m
range
till
2014-‐15
but
with
new
orders
predominantly
from
Brazil
and
South
Africa,
it
has
started
to
hover
in
the
$25-‐26m
range.
We
expect
the
business
to
be
in
the
range
of
$25-‐26m
for
the
next
2
quarters
and
post
a
CAGR
growth
of
15%
over
2015-‐2018E.
4)
ARV
Business:
ARV
(Anti-‐retroviral)
Business
constitutes
of
selling
Drugs
and
Medicines
for
HIV/AIDS.
The
Business
saw
a
major
shift
when
they
started
executing
notable
tenders
and
the
revenues
doubled
to
around
$51m
in
the
Q3
2014-‐
15
over
Q2
2014-‐15.
The
tender
received
was
for
2-‐3
quarters
only
but
with
huge
demand
and
production
capacity
for
these
drugs,
we
expect
the
ARV
Business
to
continue
post
revenue
around
the
current
$40-‐45m
range
for
the
next
2
quarters
and
a
CAGR
growth
of
10%
CAGR
over
2015-‐2018E.
As
you
can
see
from
the
below
chart,
the
growth
has
been
very
uneven.
It
stays
on
a
flattish
note
unless
the
company
receives
approval
for
any
particular
high
selling
drug
or
receives
tender
to
supply
drugs.
The
sudden
13%
growth
of
Q3
2014-‐15
is
because
of
executing
the
ARV
Tenders.
The
company
can
execute
other
tenders
but
are
willing
to
apply
for
those
that
provide
good
enough
margins.
The
point
to
be
looked
at
is
that
formulation
sales
couldn’t
do
well
in
the
4th
Quarter
of
2014-‐15
even
with
Natrol
sales
included
because
of
the
slowdown
in
Europe
and
ARV
sales.
For
the
next
quarter,
we
believe
to
see
12-‐13%
on
account
of
Abilify,
Namenda,
Prilosec,
Entecavir,
Rolaxifene.
3500
0.14
0.13
3000
0.12
0.12
0.10
2500
0.08
2000
0.06
Formulations
0.05
1500
0.04
Sales
0.03
0.02
0.02
Growth
in
1000
0.00
0.00
Formulations
0.00
500
-‐0.02
-‐0.02
0
-‐0.04
Q1
14-‐15
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
15-‐16
Q2
Q3
E
Q4
E
Over
2015-‐2018E,
we
predict
a
CAGR
growth
of
19%
for
Aurobindo’s
formulations
business.
API’s:
API
Business
constitutes
of
3
major
components
namely
SSP
(Semi-‐
Synthetic
Penicillin),
Cephalosporins
and
Non-‐Beta
Lactam
products.
Aurobindo
was
started
as
a
SSP
selling
company
and
now
SSP
constitutes
only
5-‐6%
of
its
overall
revenue.
SSP
constitutes
around
30%,
Cephasplorins
constitutes
around
35%
and
Non-‐Betalactam
constitutes
around
35%
of
the
API
Business.
Revenue
of
the
API
business
ranges
in
between
$100-‐110m.
The
API
business
of
the
company
has
almost
remained
stagnant
but
because
of
large
demand
of
API's
the
company
has
expanded
facility
in
its
Unit
XI.
The
expanded
Unit
will
start
generating
revenue
from
the
latter
half
of
2015-‐16
and
therefore
increase
in
API's
revenue
is
expected
in
the
coming
quarter.
The
main
reason
of
API
business
not
expanding
earlier
was
because
of
the
In-‐house
needs
of
the
company.
740
0.08
730
0.07
0.06
720
710
0.04
0.03
0.03
700
0.02
0.02
690
API
Sales
0.00
0.00
0.00
680
Growth
in
API
670
-‐0.02
-‐0.02
660
-‐0.04
650
-‐0.04
640
-‐0.06
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
E
Q4
E
14-‐15
15-‐16
With
the
company
focusing
on
generating
revenue
through
sale
of
API’s,
we
expect
a
CAGR
growth
of
6%
in
revenues
over
2015-‐2018E.
Total
Sales:
Apart
from
Formulations
and
API’s,
Aurobindo
Pharma
also
generates
revenue
through
sale
of
Dossiers.
The
revenue
through
sale
of
Dossiers
is
very
small
compared
to
over
all
revenue.
As
discussed
above,
sales
of
the
company
increased
by
50%
because
of
acquisition
of
Actavis’s
Western
Europe’s
7
countries
and
Natrol.
We
have
assumed
revenues
to
grow
by
17%
till
2018E
and
then
gradually
come
down
to
10%
by
2025E. Our
estimation
of
17%
is
in
line
with
Management’s
expectation
of
$3B
sales
in
2017-‐18.
Revenue
for
next
year
is
taken
at
17%
without
taking
into
account
first
time
generic
approval
of
High
selling
drugs.
If
the
company
is
able
to
get
first
time
generic
approval,
we
might
see
very
good
growth
in
numbers.
The
premise
for
high
sales
can’t
be
speculated
and
we
will
have
to
wait
for
those
approvals
to
be
given.
250,000.00
0.60
0.50
0.50
200,000.00
0.40
0.38
150,000.00
0.30
Sales
0.27
100,000.00
Growth
0.20
0.17
0.17
0.17
in
Sales
50,000.00
0.10
12.54
12.00
12.10
11.59
6.00
4.00
3.23
2.76
2.00
2.27
2.30
2.00
1.30
1.27
0.00
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
E
2017
E
2018
E
Price
ratios:
The
company’s
P/E
ratio
improved
significantly
in
the
recent
years
as
it
jumped
from
12.76X
to
22.73X
multiple.
Currently
it
is
trading
at
18.76X
of
2017-‐18
earnings.
Relatively,
the
company’s
P/E
ratio
is
lesser
than
it’s
peers
and
is
on
the
path
to
meet
or
be
better
than
that
multiple.
P/BV
ratio
multiplied
in
the
recent
years
and
has
increased
from
1.63X
to
6.93X.
Companies
reserves
and
surplus
grew
from
Rs.2,576
crs
in
2013
to
Rs.5,127
crs
in
2015.
The
company
has
to
repay
FCCB
debt
in
this
year
and
the
premium
on
repayment
of
that
debt
will
decrease
profit
and
reserves
the
company
will
have
this
year.
Book
Value
for
the
year
2015-‐16
is
calculated
keeping
that
into
account.
30.00
25.00
25.24
22.73
21.57
20.00
18.76
15.00
P/E
14.59
12.76
P/BV
10.00
6.93
7.49
6.24
5.00
5.41
3.98
1.63
0.00
2012-‐13
2013-‐14
2014-‐15
2015-‐16
2016-‐17
E
2017-‐18
E
Return
Ratios:
The
return
ratios
performed
exceptionally
well
in
the
year
2014
because
of
very
good
margins
from
Cymbalta
and
Repaglinide.
2015
saw
a
fall
in
all
the
return
ratios
because
of
the
losses
from
acquired
Actavis’s
Business.
0.35
0.31
0.30
0.30
0.29
0.25
0.25
0.00
2013
2014
2015
Final
Comments:
Q3
is
critically
important
for
Aurobindo
as
they
will
have
to
post
growth
in
every
segment
of
the
company.
Auro
US
is
expected
to
grow
by
20-‐25%
over
the
last
quarter
with
sales
expected
from
Aripiprazole,
Namenda,
Rolaxifene,
Entecavir
and
Omeprazole.
AuroMedics
is
expected
to
grow
and
have
sales
of
$75-‐80m
by
year-‐end.
Europe
business
is
expected
to
show
good
EBITDA
level
profits.
API
business
is
expected
to
grow
from
expanded
Unit
XI
facility.
The
sales
to
capital
ratio
of
the
company
is
improving
but
there
is
a
still
a
lot
of
improvement
left.
The
company
is
investing
heavily
in
the
injectable
business
and
good
growth
is
expected
from
that
business
post
2017.
The
company
is
also
installing
one
more
line
in
Natrol
that
will
help
them
in
better
capacity
utilization.
Future
sales
will
increase
without
much
expenditure
in
the
Natrol
Business.
The
company
is
in
the
process
of
raising
$600m
of
which
$350m
will
be
needed
for
API
expansion,
finished
dosage
expansion
for
moving
products
from
Europe
to
India,
complex
filing
and
registrations
needed
for
filing
to
shift
from
Europe
to
India.
With
most
of
the
company’s
revenue
coming
from
US
and
with
forecast
suggesting
rupee
to
depreciate
further,
we
expect
a
good
increase
in
its
revenue
and
rise
in
forex
losses
because
of
restructuring
of
debt.
The
value
per
share
we
arrived
at
is
Rs.600-‐650
and
the
market
price
per
share
is
trading
at
34%
premium
at
Rs.834.
We
valued
the
company
using
DCF
analysis.
With
margins
expected
to
come
from
Actavis
and
good
launches
to
come
in
the
following
quarters
and
year,
we
have
assumed
EBITDA
levels
to
grow
from
23%
to
27%
and
then
gradually
come
down
to
21%
by
2025
because
of
pricing
and
market
share
erosions.
We
have
taken
the
discounting
factor
at
14%
with
1%
added
because
of
the
Governance
issues.
We
have
taken
the
terminal
growth
at
5%.
We
believe
the
premium
is
high
because
of
the
following
reasons:
1)
Highly
Competitive
Market.
2)
Lack
of
R&D.
3)
Return
of
Formidable
players
from
the
FDA
bans.
4)
Governance
Issues.
5)
Low
Sales
to
Capital
ratio.
6)
High
Working
capital
days
and
7)
Lack
of
growth
in
the
recent
quarters.
Our
projection
is
aligned
with
the
views
of
management
i.e.
reach
$3b
by
2017-‐18.
The
premium
is
mostly
based
on
the
belief
of
the
company
getting
a
first
generic
approval
of
a
high
selling
product
like
Cymbalta.
The
companies
base
business
is
not
growing
at
an
expected
level.
Company’s
debt
currently
stands
at
$662m,
which
is
expected
to
increase
with
$600m
the
company
is
planning
to
raise.
The
company
is
supposed
to
have
inspection
in
its
manufacturing
facilities.
If
the
FDA
finds
flaws
in
the
manufacturing
facilities,
it
can
have
serious
impact
on
the
sales
and
valuation
of
the
company.
The
company
has
replied
to
the
queries
raised
on
the
earlier
two
inspections
done
by
the
FDA
and
is
positive
that
the
issue
will
be
resolved
in
favor
of
Aurobindo.
We
are
waiting
for
the
Q3
numbers
to
see
whether
the
Management
delivers
what
they
promise.