Chapter 8: Estimating the Mean of a Population

What situations would -when the population mean for a variable is not known
you calculate CI for the -use sample, with a desired level of confidence, an estimate of unknown
mean rather than the t- population mean
test for one mean?
Interval estimation The estimation of a population parameter by specifying a range, or interval,
of values within which one has a certain degree of confidence the
population parameter falls
Confidence Interval Range of values that, with a stated degree of confidence, may include the
(CI) population mean
- Builds range around point estimate
Point estimate A single value used to estimate an unknown population parameter
- Sample mean
- Can’t just use the point estimate as a true representation of a
population parameter because of sampling error
Sampling Error If we drew different samples, it is unlikely that we would get the exact same
mean again
CI for the Mean 1. State the desired level of confidence
(population standard 2. Calculate the confidence interval and confidence limits (always 2
deviation not known) tailed)
3. Draw conclusions about the confidence interval
-will need to calculate s to determine CIs
State desired level of -a 100% CI would have to be infinitely wide so be confident that the
confidence interval would have all possible values of the population mean
(uninformative)
-practical use must be <100%
-traditionally set at 95%
Desired level of confidence = 95%
- 95% confidence that the interval contains the unknown population
mean
- .05 probability the CI does not contain population mean
Calculate CI and 95% CI = X̄ ± t(sx̄)
Confidence Limits X̄ = point estimate (sample mean)
t = critical value of the t-statistic
- Must calculate df and identify critical values
sx̄ = standard error of the mean

-When population standard deviation is not known, must rely on the t-

statistic and Student t-distribution to construct CI
-find the upper and lower limits
95 % CI = (lower limit, upper limit)
Calculate sx̄ -when population standard deviation is not known, the variability of sample
means is represented by sx̄
 𝑠
sx̄ = √𝑁
-the width of a confidence interval for the mean is a function of the amount
of variability of sample means
- the greater the variability, the wider the interval must be to have the
desired level of confidence that the interval contains the population mean
Calculate df df = N – 1
-use t table to find critical values (always be more conservative)
Draw Conclusion about There is an xx probability that the interval of [lower limit] to [upper limit]
CI contains the mean [variable] for the population of [sample population].
Probability of an -refers to the probability that the CI contains an unknown population mean,
interval or of a not to the probability that the population mean is in the interval
population mean? -population mean does not change, it is either within the interval or is not
-intervals do change, and the probability that an interval contains the
population mean varies from sample to sample
CI for the Mean 1. State the desired level of confidence
(population standard 2. Calculate the CI and confidence limits (always two tailed)
deviation known) 3. Draw a conclusion about the confidence interval
-do not need to calculate s because population standard deviation is known
-We do not know the true mean of the population
-We can estimate population using the sample mean
Calculate CI and CI = X̄ ± z(σx̄)
Confidence Limits X̄ = point estimate (sample mean)
z = critical value of the z-statistic for desired level of confidence
σx̄ = population standard error of the mean
Differences when σ is 1. σx̄ is used to estimate variability of sample rather than sx̄
not known 2. the critical value is based on the standard normal distribution
of z-statistics rather than the student t-distribution

σ
Calculate σx̄ σx̄ = √𝑁

Identify critical value of -use standard normal distribution (same as when test a single mean when σ
z is known
-do not need to calculate df because we aren’t estimating the σ from the
sample’s standard deviation
Main purpose of the CI -construct a range of values for a variable that has a stated probability of
for the mean containing an unknown population mean
Factors affecting width 1. Sample size
of CI for the mean 2. Desired Level of confidence
Are to some degree, under control of the researcher
Sample Size The larger the sample size, the narrower the CI for the mean (more precisely
you can estimate population mean).
- Explained by the effect of sampling error on the relationship
between samples and populations
 - Larger samples more closely approximate the population
Relationship Between The smaller the desired width of the CI, the larger the necessary sample
Desired Interval and size.
Sample Size
Desired Level of The higher the desired level of confidence, the wider the confidence
Confidence interval.
- Trade-off between probability and precision
- Higher the CI, the lower the precision
- Lower the CI, greater the precision
- Influence is on standard error of the mean
Relationship between The larger the sample size, the smaller the effect of the level of confidence
level of confidence and on the width of the confidence interval.
sample size - The smaller the sample size, the greater the trade-off between
probability and precision
Similarities between CI - Hypothesized population means
for the mean and the test - Sample means
of one mean - Sampling distributions
- Probability
Differences between CI Hypothesis testing purpose is to make decision about null hypothesis. In
for the mean and the test testing one mean, you decided whether or not a sample mean is significantly
of one mean different from a stated value of a population mean.

Purpose of CI for the mean is to use a sample mean to construct an estimate

of an unknown population mean
2 Concerns of 1. Interpretation of statistical significance and non-significance
Hypothesis testing 2. Influence of sample size on statistical analysis
Interpretation of -null and alternative hypothesis are mutually exclusive, we either reject or
statistical significance do not reject the null hypothesis
and non-significance -dichotomizing statistical analyses as significant or non-significant leads to
possible misinterpretation
-may ignore non-significant findings, assuming there is no effect
-a p = .06 (slightly greater than cut off) may be regarded the same as p = .99
Influence of sample size -may make different decision to reject the null simply because of
on statistical analysis differences in sample size
-larger sample sizes lead to larger probability of rejecting the null
Sample Size Influences 1. Critical values: larger sample size the critical values start moving
2 things towards the centre of the distribution (region of rejection gets
larger)
2. The statistic: affects the standard error of the mean (affects the
denominator), will make the statistic more extreme, and more likely
to fall in region of rejection
Solution? -could use sample mean to develop CI rather than decide if significant or
non-significant (especially when true population mean is unknown)
Chapter 9: Testing the Difference Between Two Means
Ask yourself: Am I comparing a sample mean to a population mean?
- If Yes: then use t-test or z-test for a one sample mean
- If No: compare 2 sample means
Then ask is it a between subject design or within subject design?
- Between subject design: t-test for independent means
- Within subject design: paired samples t-test
Between Subject Comparing samples from two different populations
Research design - Each participant appears in only one group or one level of the IV
X̄1 - X̄2 Determine the probability of obtaining a particular difference between two
sample means
- Even if comparing two different samples, we’re doing so to make
inferences between the two populations
The Sampling Distribution of all possible values of the differences between two sample
Distribution of the means when an infinite number of pairs of samples of size N are randomly
Difference selected from two populations
- Used to determine the probability of obtaining any particular
difference between two sample means
- Repeated process of randomly drawing samples and calculating the
difference between sample means an infinite number of times
Assume the 2 µ1 = µ 2
populations are not Therefore, X̄1 - X̄2 = 0
different
Why is the difference Sampling error: variability among sample means drawn from populations
between two sample
means not 0?
Characteristics of Modality: mean is equal to 0
Sampling Distribution - Working under assumption that the two population means are equal
of the Difference Symmetry: is approximately normal (assuming sufficient size N > 30)
- The shape of the t-distribution changes as a function of the sample
size
Variability: measured by the standard error of the difference sx̄1 - x̄2
Standard Error of the sx̄1 - x̄2
Difference
State the Null and Null Hypothesis: implies that the means of the two populations are equal to
Alternative Hypotheses each other
- µ1 = µ 2
Alternative Hypothesis:
- µ1 ≠ µ2
- can also be stated in directional way
Make Decision about 1. Calculate df = (N1 – 1) + (N2 – 1)
Null Hypothesis 2. Set alpha
3. Identify critical values:
For alpha = X [directionality] and df = X, critical values = ± X
 4. State a decision rule
If t < -X or > X, reject H0; otherwise, do not reject H0
5. Calculate an effect size
Tells you the practical significance of the finding
Will NOT be given If given standard deviation: square it
variance (s2) If given raw data: calculate mean & variance
Which inferential t-statistic because population standard deviation for both samples is
statistic is used? unknown
Calculate t-Test for t=
Independent Means
- t-test for independent means to indicate that the data was
collected from two samples drawn from two different
populations
- scores of one sample are unrelated to scores in the other sample
- must take into account variability in two samples rather than one
Draw a Conclusion Include:
- dependent variable
- the two samples
- the independent variable
- descriptive statistics
- the nature and direction of the findings
- information about inferential statistics
Assumptions of t-test 1. Normality
for independent means 2. Homogeneity of variance
3. Interval or ratio scale of measurement
4. Scores are independent (come from different people).
5. Two levels of the IV (only).

- Violating these assumptions increases the possibility of making the

wrong decision about rejecting the null hypothesis
- T-tests are robust and withstand moderate violations
Normality Scores for the dependent variable in each of the two populations are
approximately normally distributed
- Must examine for each level of IV
- Shapiro-Wilk’s test, skewness & kurtosis statistics, histograms
Shapiro-Wilks Test Test of normality.
If > .05 the assumption is not violated
If < .05 the assumption is violated
- Is a sensitive test, so follow up with visual analysis
Homogeneity of The variance of scores for a variable in the two populations is the same
Variance - When this assumption is violated, it’s possible that the two samples
are not representative of their populations
Influence of Sample - Influences our decision to reject null and affects the conclusions we draw
Size on Inferential - The larger the sample sizes, the more likely we are to reject null, even if
Statistics the means of the samples are practically the same
- We want large sample sizes to be precise and confident in our conclusions,
but it would be helpful to have a gauge not reliant on sample size
Sample Size Affects 1. Increase in sample size makes t statistic more extreme because of
Ability to Reject Null in influence on standard error (standard error is in denominator, larger
2 Ways N increases denominator and makes standard error smaller)
2. Makes the region of rejection larger at the same probability of
making a Type 1 error (affects critical values)
Measures of Effect size 1. r2
2. Cohen’s d
Cohen’s d Magnitude of the difference between the means of two groups measured in
standard deviation units
- Tells you how far apart the means are
- Small overlap: means are further away from each other
- Large Overlap: less distance between the means

Always interpret as positive value (drop negative sign).

Small effect Cohen’s d =
Medium Effect Cohen’s d =
Large Effect Cohen’s d > .80
Why calculate effect 1. Unaffected by sample size
size? 2. Allows for standardized comparisons across samples and research
studies
3. Aids in interpretation of results
-a significant results may be of small practical significance
-non-significant results can be better understood with effect size
comparisons (i.e. extraneous variables, usually tied to small sample
sizes)
Statistical significance ONLY tells you if it’s due to chance.
Within-subjects design Research design test for differences (or change) within the same participant
- Differences within a person regarding different situations
- Repeated administrations (longitudinal designs)
- Pretest-posttest design
Challenges to within- Samples are correlated:
subjects design - Make adjustments in sampling distribution (Standard error) 
treated as random error because participants act as their own control
- Make adjustments in degrees of freedom
Reduced Variability Because the same people are in both conditions
Must explicitly identify Calculate a different score.
the paired data - Cross out raw data after calculating because it is NOT used in t-test
Testing the Difference State H0 and H1
Between Paired Means H0: µD = 0 / µ1 = µ2 (no difference in sample over two conditions)
H1: µD ≠ 0

df = ND – 1

t=

Standard error of the SD =

difference scores
Assumptions of the t- 1. Interval or ratio scale of measurement
test for paired means 2. Difference scores are normally distributed (Shapiro-Wilk’s test)
Chapter 10: Errors in Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Power
Hypothesis Testing Uses probability to decide whether or not to reject the null hypothesis
- May make a mistake because based on probability
Type 1 error An error that occurs when the null hypothesis is true, but the decision is made
to reject the null hypothesis.
- Hypothesized effect does not exist in the population but the statistical
analysis concludes that it does
Probability of Same as the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis.
making Type 1 error p(type 1 error) = alpha
Probability of not Equal to the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis.
making a Type 1 P(not making Type 1 error) = 1 – alpha
error - Assumption that an effect does not exist unless evidence is strong
Concern of making a May result in communication of incorrect information.
Type 1 error? - Saying an effect exists when it doesn’t
- i.e. drug does not actually work
Why do Type 1 Random, chance factors (i.e. individual differences) and fluctuations in
errors occur? sampling.
Type 2 Error Not rejecting the null hypothesis when the hypothesized effect does exist in the
population.
- Best way to prevent is to increase sample size
Probability of p(type 2 error) = ß
making a Type 2 - Difficult to determine because we frequently don’t know true
error population values
Probability of not p(type 2 error) = 1- ß
making a Type 2 - Statistical Power: the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis
error? when the alternative hypothesis is true (probability of detecting an
effect when it does in fact exist in the population)
Concern of Type 2 May result in non-communication of correct information.
error - Less likely to be published
Why does Type 2 Random, chance factors or fluctuations, how researcher designed the study,
error occur? small effects that are difficult to detect.
- i.e. small sample size, may be comparing non-equivalent groups
- still may have small effect that has practical significance
Controlling for Type Make it more difficult to reject null:
1 Error - lower the value of alpha from .05 to .01
- BUT lowering alpha increases the probability of making a Type 2 error
(more likely to miss an effect if it actually exists)
Controlling Type 2 Make it more reasonable to reject null:
Error 1. Increase sample size: larger sample sizes yield lower critical values,
but some significant results become trivial
2. Raise alpha: increase probability of making Type 2 error
3. Use a directional alternative hypothesis: makes region or rejection
larger (need lower critical value)
4. Increase between group variability: maximize the differences (effect
size) between groups using effective experimental manipulations
i.e. have a good intervention

5. Decrease within group variability: minimize the error variance

(variance that cannot be explained or accounted for) within a group by
increasing the sample size and standardizing testing procedures.