Thayer Consultancy Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Philippine President Duterte
Declines to Attend U.S.-ASEAN
Special Summit
Carlyle A. Thayer
February 9, 2020

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said he declined U.S. President Donald Trump’s
invitation to attend a summit with Southeast Asian leaders in March and is prohibiting
his Cabinet officials from going to America. We request your response to three
questions:
Q1. Why did President Duterte come to this decision?
ANSWER: There are two answers to this question. The first answer takes a long-term
view. The second answer focuses on more proximate causes.
President Rodrigo Duterte has a long track record as an anti-American populist who is
extremely sensitive to what he perceives as American slights to Philippine
sovereignty. One telling incident dates to the time he was Mayor of Davao City in the
southern Philippines. On May 16, 2002, there was an explosion in a Davao hotel that
injured an American alleged to be a CIA agent. Before local authorities could intervene
to interview the American, he was spirited out of the country. Duterte viewed this
incident as interference in the Philippines’ internal affairs.
Fourteen years later, just before announcing his candidacy for president ,Duterte gave
an interview in which he said he hated the United States for its interference in the
internal affairs of the Philippines. Rodrigo Duterte carried this anti-American chip on
his shoulder after he was elected President of the Philippines in 2016.
On coming into office Duterte’s launched an extra-legal war on drugs. This provoked
criticism by the Obama Administration and members of the U.S. Congress. This
criticism rankled President Duterte who pushed back in retaliation. Duterte repeatedly
threatened to “break up” the bilateral Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States.
He also repeatedly said he would set foot in the United States during his term as
president.
A major turning point was reached in September 2016 at the East Asian Summit in
Laos. President Obama urged the Philippines to conduct its anti-drug campaign “the
right way.” An estimated 3,000 extra judicial killings reportedly taken place since
Duterte’s election.
Duterte took offense at Obama’s remarks and deviated from a prepared speech at
the Summit to show pictures of alleged American atrocities in the Philippines during
 2

the colonial era. Duterte argued the U.S. had no moral ground to criticize his anti-drug
campaign. Duterte was quoted by one diplomat who attended the meeting as saying,
“This is my ancestor[s that] they killed. Why now [are] we talking about human rights.”
At the end of the Summit President Obama reportedly snubbed Duterte by not shaking
hands.
Duterte then called President Obama “a son of a whore” and told him to “go to hell.”
Obama then abruptly cancelled a scheduled meeting with Duterte. Duterte responded
by withdrawing from a meeting between ASEAN government leaders and the U.S.
President.
In 2017, newly elected President Donald Trump invited five leaders from Southeast
Asia to meet with him at The White House. In late May ,Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan
Phuc became the first ASEAN leader to meet with Trump in the Oval Office. Prime
Minister Phuc was followed by the prime ministers of Singapore, Malaysia and
Thailand. In April 2017, President Trump called President Duterte and noted that he
was doing an ”unbelievable job on the drug problem” and invited him to visit The
White House.
In July 2017, when a US Congressman said that Duterte would not be welcome at The
White House because of his human rights record, Duterte announced he had no plans
to visit Washington.
This brief history of Duterte’s long-term anti-Americanism forms the backdrop for
recent events. In November 2019, President Trump failed to attend the ASEAN-United
States Leaders’ Meeting in Bangkok. Because Trump’s representative was not even a
member of Cabinet a majority of ASEAN leaders, including Duterte, declined to
attend. Only four leaders – from Thailand, Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam – attended,
the other six ASEAN countries sent lower level representatives.
At the ASEAN-US Leaders Meeting in Bangkok, Trump’s representative presented an
invitation from the U.S. President to hold a special summit in the United States during
the first quarter of 2020. The Trump Administration followed up with a second letter
dated 9 January inviting ASEAN leaders to Las Vegas on 14 March. This letter was
considered by ASEAN foreign ministers at their Retreat in Januaruy. They passed the
final decision to their government leaders.
In December 2019, the U.S. Congress passed the 2020 U.S. Appropriations Act. This
Act included a provision on Prohibition on Entry that prohibited Filipino officials from
entering the United States if they were involved in the detention of Senator Leila de
Lima. Senator de Lima was a leading critic of Duterte’s anti-drug campaign that
resulted in the extra-legal killing of an estimated 6,000 persons. Also, in December,
the Senate passed non-binding S.Res. (Senate Resolution) 142 that called on President
Trump to invoke the Global Magnitsky Act against the Philippines. This Act authorized
freezing the assets of human rights offenders and banning them from entering the
United States. In response, a presidential spokesperson stated that Duterte was
unlikely to attend the special meeting between ASEAN leaders and President Trump
in March 2020.
Duterte further retaliated by prohibiting Senators Dick Durbin, Patrick Leahy and
Edward Markey from visiting the Philippines because they sponsored S.Res. 142.
 3

Duterte also threatened to impose a visa requirement on American citizens who

wanted to visit the Philippines if the United States went ahead an imposed the visa
ban on Philippine government officials.
On January 21, 2020, it was disclosed that the United States cancelled the visa of
former National Police Chief Ronald Dela Rosa. Dela Rosa led the anti-drug campaign
following Duterte’s 2016 election. This appears to have been the last straw for
Duterte. On January 23, Duterte gave a public speech in which he said, “I’m giving
notice that they begin to count. I’m giving government and the American government
one month from now. We will talk.” If the United States government failed to make a
“correction” Duterte said, “I will terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement.”
On January 24, Duterte gave an interview with Russia Today in which he accused the
United States of treating the Philippines as a “vassal state” and “backward country”
that was stuck in medieval times and is “incapable of dispensing justice.”
On January 29, President Duterte officially announced that he would not attend the
US-ASEAN Special Leaders’ Meeting scheduled for Las Vegas on March 14. At the same
time, he directed his Cabinet members not to travel to the United States. Duterte also
gave the U.S. a one-month deadline to “correct” Senator Dela Rosa’s visa or else he
would terminate the 1999 Visiting Forces Agreement that allowed the deployment of
U.S. military personnel to the Philippines for training exercises under the Mutual
Defense Treaty.
Q2. How does this decision affect the Philippines-U.S. relationship, the Philippines-
China relationship, the Philippines-ASEAN relationship, and the South China Sea
situation?
ANSWER: The foremost reason why President Duterte has resisted visiting the United
States since his election is because he would face major demonstrations by Filipino-
Americans and criticism by members of the United States Congress. This would be
humiliating for Duterte and undermine his prestige.
President Duterte’s decision not to attend the US-ASEAN Leaders’ Special Meeting
this year, and his various threats to take action against the United States, will further
undermine bilateral defence and political relations between two supposed treaty
allies. These developments expose the deep sense of mistrust Duterte has for the
United States.
It should be noted that a rupture of the alliance is not a forgone conclusion, however.
The Philippines could be represented by its Secretary of Foreign Affairs at the Las
Vegas Special Meeting. Senator Dela Rosa has already be asked to apply for a new visa
so there is a possibility of a compromise.
Duterte’s anti-American attitude is music to China’s ear. In recent surveys of elite
opinion by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore and the Center for
Strategic and International Studies in Washington, both the Philippines and Vietnam
show the highest degree of distrust of China in Southeast Asia and the greatest
support for the United States. China will note that President Duterte is swimming
against the tide of domestic public opinion in Beijing’s favour and that Duterte is
unlikely to leverage relations with the US against China in the West Philippine Sea.
 4

ASEAN already faces a dilemma with respect to the US-ASEAN Leaders’ Special
Meeting as only five countries have indicated they will send their head of
government/state – Cambodia, Laos, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Thus, the
problem of ASEAN representation is not the sole responsibility of the Philippines
alone. ASEAN, however, would suffer a dent to its prestige and credibility if the
Philippines absented itself from the special meeting and only nine of ten ASEAN
members were represented. If there isn’t sufficient representation the Special
Meeting could be cancelled.
As for the South China Sea, President Duterte has made it clear that the Philippines
will not confront China over their maritime dispute and further that the Philippines
will not take any physical action against Chinese violations of its territorial waters and
Exclusive Economic Zone. This will only embolden China to apply continual pressure
on Vietnam and Malaysia and result in the derogation of Philippines’ sovereignty.
Q3. What does Vietnam as the ASEAN Chair need to do in this case to unite ASEAN
members and build relationships with the U.S.?
ANSWER: The present imbroglio about ASEAN members’ attendance at the special
leaders’ summit in Las Vegas was precipitated by President Trump’s no-show in
Bangkok in November last year. Six ASEAN members reacted by lowering their
representation.
Vietnam, as ASEAN Chair, needs to lobby Brunei, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia
and Myanmar to attend, even if their representation is not at head of
government/state level. Trump called this meeting to mark the ASEAN-US Strategic
Partnership. If the special meeting falls through it is unlikely that the US and ASEAN
can hold a leaders‘ meeting in November. US presidential elections will be held on
November 2nd. This will weaken ASEAN’s hand in balancing relations with China and in
negotiations for a legally binding South China Sea Code of Conduct.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Philippine President Duterte Declines to Attend

U.S.-ASEAN Special Summit ,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February 9, 2020.
All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove
yourself from the mailing list type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the
Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.