Interagency

Conflict
Assessment
Framework (ICAF):
A tool for situational analysis to
support planning

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Outline

 What is the ICAF

 Why use the ICAF
 When to use the ICAF
 How to Use the ICAF
 Analysis: The diagnostic tool
 Pre-planning

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 What is the ICAF?

A flexible and scalable process that

enables an interagency team to
systematically, collaboratively assess
conflict situations and make
recommendations for USG Inter-
Agency planning for prevention and
stabilization.

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
Why an Interagency Process for Analysis?

 Unity of Effort to achieve unified purpose.

 Engage different perspectives to build
consensus around a shared understanding.
 Develop USG strategy and action plan, based
on dynamic ground reality.
 Employ “tools in the toolkit” more effectively.
 Establish common framework to support
planning.

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 When to use the ICAF

 Steady state engagement / Conflict

prevention planning.
 Long-term, scenario-based planning.
 Crisis response planning.

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 How to use the ICAF

 Assembling the Team.

 Broad interagency representation.
 Country experts.
 Conflict specialists and social scientists.
 Intelligence professionals.
 Planners, if leading to a whole of USG plan.

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 How to Use the ICAF (cont.)
 Methodological Approach.
 Background Data Collection.
 Initial Planning Meetings.
 Preparation for ICAF Assessment.
 Data Collection.
• Interviews.
• Scenario-based discussions.
• Review secondary sources.
• Fact-checking.
• Other.
 Conduct Assessment.
U.S. Department of State
Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Examples: Sri Lanka, Tajikistan and Cambodia

1) Sri Lanka
1) Washington interagency dialogue (three weeks).
2) Desk-top Assessment (one day w/ 17 offices/bureaus).
3) 3 week TDY in country Field Assessment (three weeks).
4) Prepare report, provide recommendations (two months).

2) Tajikistan
1) 2.5 days of assessment conducted in DC reporting to Sr.
Leaders
2) 16 member Interagency team

n Cambodia
n 3 week TDY in country Field Assessment
n Supported by DOS, USAID, PACOM and NGOs (informally)

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 ICAF - Key Components

Task 1: Diagnosis Task 2: Pre-

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Planning

Context
Occasions for
Core Drivers of
Increasing
Grievances Conflict
Conflict
Recommendations
Social and Occasions for
Mitigating
Institutional Decreasing
Factors
Resilience Conflict

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Task 1:
Diagnosis

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
Context as Backdrop for Diagnosis

Context
 Conditions that  Poverty/low quality of
we treat as givens life
because they are  Bad neighborhood
difficult or  Recent history of
impossible for conflict
humans to alter
within our planning  Low level of economic
horizon. growth/recession
 Heterogeneity (2 or 3
 Context does not equally sized groups)
cause conflict.
 Youth bulge

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
Diagnosis: Identify Identity Groups
 People that identify with
one another.
 Often as ascribed by
others:
 Religion
 Ethnicity
Identity
Groups  Language
 Conflict rises when group
feels in jeopardy:
 Identity
 Security
 Recognition
 Opportunity

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
Diagnosis: Determine Institutional Performance
 Institutions are both formal and
Context informal.
 Institutions mediate impact of
contextual factors.
 Institutional performance has
two key aspects:
 Outcomes;
Identity
Groups  Perceptions.
 Performance outcomes may
Institutional be measured objectively, but
Performance what matters is subjective
perceptions of effectiveness
and legitimacy by identity
groups.

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
Diagnosis: Identify Societal Patterns
 Interactions between
Identity Groups and
Context
Institutions produce
persistent societal patterns:
 Exclusion;
Societal Patterns
 Elitism;
Identity  Rent-seeking/corruption;
Groups
 Capacity deficits;
 Disillusionment.
Institutional Performance
 And also:
 Accommodation;
 Tolerance.

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Example: Identity Group Analysis
Core Grievances Social and Institutional Resilience

Sinhalese perceive Tamils as a threat to their need for:  1984 Constitution decrees
Sinhalese and Tamil as official
- Physical security. Sinhalese identify Tamils with the
languages.
LTTE, whom they see as responsible for continuance of
the armed conflict (bombings, mines, sinking of naval
ships, attacks against civilians).  Standards for military service
relaxed to allow Tamils to serve.
- Identity. Many Sinhalese equate being Sri Lankan
with being Sinhalese (sense of nationalism), similar to  Police training expanded to allow
their identity with the Sinhalese language and Buddhist Tamil trainees.
religion.
Tamils perceive Sinhalese as a threat to their need for:  Moderate Tamils becoming weary
of war.
- Physical security. Sinhalese continue armed fighting
against the LTTE, creating a conflict zone; bombing IDP  A few Tamils serve as Ministers
camps, killing non-combatants. Tamils also blame in national government (GoSL).
Sinhalese for abductions and disappearances of Tamil
civilians.

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Step 1 to Step 2

Context

Societal Patterns
Key Actors’
Motivations and
Identity
Means
Groups

Institutional Performance

Core Grievances
Social and Institutional
Resilience
U.S. Department of State
Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Understanding Key Actors
 Who.
 Key Actors are both organizations and individuals.
 Key Actors are related to identified grievances and
institutional resilience.
 Motivations.
 Motivations cause Key Actors to engage with
patterns.
 Means.
 Basis of authority.
 Organizational capacities.
 Financing.
 Operational space.

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Identify Drivers of Conflict
and Mitigating Factors

Context

Societal Patterns
Key Actors’
Identity Motivations and
Groups Means

Institutional Performance

Core Grievances Drivers of Conflict

Social and Institutional Resilience Mitigating Factors

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Example: Actor Analysis
Stakeholder Key Actor What Influence Exert
Identity (Leader or Group) (Political, Social, Security, Economic)
Group
Tamils Ken Balendra (Economic) Voted most effective
business leader in 2003;
(Political) Has access to and can
influence broad spectrum of
political leaders in SL;
(Social) Opinion leader for moderate
Tamils
R. Rajamahendran (Economic) Extremely successful
businessman;
(Political) Maintains connections in
GoSL and opposition; promoting
the presenter of Tamil “Minnel”
program;
(Social) staff not necessarily loyal
Velupillai (Security) Leader of Tamil Tigers, his
Prabhakaran influence with forces remains high;
(Social) Has ardent supporters in Tamil
civilians and diaspora;
U.S. Department of State
Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
How Exert Influence
Well-respected business leader;
Chair of Brandix Lanka Ltd
(leading apparel
manufacturer) & Ceylon
Tobacco Co., former chair of
John Keells Holdings (largest
SL co.)
1 of 2 brothers who created media
giant Maharaja
Organization;
Will play down political
controversies at the request
of powerful politicians
Charismatic and persuasive,
LTTE cadres follow his every
word;
Takes policy recommendations
from New York-based
immigration lawyer /activist
Rudrakumaran
 Analyzing Dynamics

Context

Societal Patterns
Windows of
Key Actors’ Vulnerability
Identity Motivations and
Groups Means Windows of
Opportunity

Institutional Performance

Core Grievances Drivers of Conflict Occasions for Increasing Conflict

Social and Institutional Resilience Mitigating Factors Occasions for Decreasing Conflict

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Example: Analyzing Dynamics
Drivers of Conflict
Top leaders of Tamil (Velupillai Prabhakaran) and GoSL
(Guthabaya Rajapaksa) forces as well as Muslim
leaders (Ferial Ashraff) use their charisma, political
influence and violence against citizens to work
against political solution to the war
The GoSL establishes high security zones to keep LTTE
from connecting with external suppliers; this
displaces more than 1 million people, mostly Tamil
farmers and fishers, with a tradition n land use; IDP
camps lack GoSL services; IDPs look to the LTTE
for security and service provision
LTTE attack moderate or non-LTTE Tamils and GoSL
provides them no security against the attacks, so few
moderate voices arise to challenge LTTE approach to
challenging GoSL marginalization of Tamils
Diaspora provide arms and money to LTTE; GoSL
establishes high security zones to prevent illegal arms
and funding from entering the country; high security
zones preclude Tamils from accessing the sea and
their traditional farm lands increasing their reliance
on LTTE for security and service provision.
U.S. Department of State
Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
Mitigating Factors
Successful business leaders for Tamils (K. Balendra) and Sinhalese
(Suresh de Mel) engage the business and political sectors and
encourage the support of change through political influence with
government and opposition leaders, interethnic staffing of
businesses and working with SCOPP
Relying on religious and international human rights principals,
Sinhalese (A.T. Ariyarantne) and Muslim (Faiz Mustapha)
encourage politicians, communities and CSO organizations to
promote non-violence and respect for human needs in GoSL
policies and social interaction
GoSL taking some steps to include Tamils in SL military (Guthabaya
Rajapaksa) and provide pay incentives for police and other
bureaucratic officers to learn Tamil
Tamils with access to media outlets (R. Rajamahendran), Muslim school
president (T.K. Azoor) and Sinhalese NGO present in 10,000
villages (Sarvodaya) support or do not oppose anti-war
communications to large numbers of people
 Task 2:
Pre-Planning

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Pre-planning

 Complete analysis.
 Map and understand current efforts and their
impact (USG & other).
 Identify gaps in current efforts.
 Identify risks associated with gaps.
 Identify opportunities for filling gaps.
 Identify challenges to filling gaps.
 Prioritize opportunities.
 Establish Measurements of effectiveness
(success).

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Example: Pre-planning
Drivers of Conflict Current Defense, Development Gaps
and Diplomacy Efforts
Top leaders of LTTE and  SCRP empowers alternative  Absence of actions to link diplomatic to
Government forces as voices. development efforts.
well as Tamil (TMVP  PILPG: policy advice to GSL to  No instrument/mechanism for
and other Tamil) SCOPP/Nation Building implementation of policy
paramilitary groups) Ministry on DDR (focus on recommendations.
and Muslim reintegration).
paramilitary groups
 FTO status for LTTE.  No unity of message w/in int’l
use their charisma, community & no access to one of
political influence and parties required for political
violence against solution.
citizens to work
 Threats by IC to disengage if no  No unity & disengagement is not
against a political
political solution. effective lever.
solution to the war.
 Cancellation of MCC.  Improve police capacity as part of
overall security strategy to promote
transition to civilian control.

 Limitations on FMF and other

mil-to-mil training.

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Lessons Learned

 Require country expertise.

 Involve Intelligence Community.
 Process founded on an understanding of USG
leverage, limitations and strategic interests.
 Consider existing host country intentions,
priorities, plans and processes.
 Tie into holistic understanding of the essential
areas for R&S (Essential Tasks).
 Include conflict experts in the process.

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Summary

Defined the ICAF.


 Discussed why to use the ICAF.
 Discussed when to use the ICAF.
 Discussed how to Use the ICAF.
 Discussed pre-planning.

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization
 Questions?

U.S. Department of State

Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization