Chart Title

6000

5000

4000

venta s
reg l in prop s imp
Axis Title

regre lin fa cto esta

3000
des co reg lin prop s imp
des co regr linel fa c esta
reg l in

2000

1000

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Axis Title
 Chart Title
3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0 reg l in
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
rege l in prop s i mpl
Axis Title

reg l in fa ct esta
des c reg lin prop s i mp
des c reg lineal fa ct est
-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

Axis Title
 suma
año PERIODO Ventas pronostico ERROR A - ERROR
ERROR SCEP
X y F F ABS
ABS
1 600 801.3 -201.3 201.3 201.3 -201.3
2 1550 1160.9 389.1 389.1 590.4 187.8
1
3 1500 1520.5 -20.5 20.5 610.9 167.3
4 1500 1880.1 -380.1 380.1 991.0 -212.8
5 2400 2239.7 160.3 160.3 1151.3 -52.6
6 3100 2599.4 500.6 500.6 1651.9 448.1
2
7 2600 2959.0 -359.0 359.0 2010.9 89.1
8 2900 3318.6 -418.6 418.6 2429.5 -329.5
9 3800 3678.2 121.8 121.8 2551.3 -207.7
10 4500 4037.8 462.2 462.2 3013.5 254.5
3
11 4000 4397.4 -397.4 397.4 3410.9 -142.9
12 4900 4757.1 142.9 142.9 3553.8 0.0
13 5116.7
14 5476.3
4
15 5835.9
16 6195.5
 EPAM SS
DAM
201.3 33.55% -1.0
295.2 27.46% 0.6
203.6 16.74% 0.8
247.8 19.24% -0.9
230.3 15.25% -0.2
275.3 15.51% 1.6
287.3 15.18% 0.3
303.7 15.04% -1.1
283.5 12.79% -0.7
301.3 12.32% 0.8
310.1 11.99% -0.5
296.2 10.66% 0.0
 PERIODO Ventas pronostico ERROR A ERROR
año
X y F -F ABS

1 600 801.3 653.5 -53.5 53.5

2 1550 1160.9 1274.0 276.0 276.0
1
3 1500 1520.5 1477.2 22.8 22.8
4 1500 1880.1 2097.2 -597.2 597.2
5 2400 2239.7 1826.7 573.3 573.3
6 3100 2599.4 2852.7 247.3 247.3
2
7 2600 2959.0 2874.7 -274.7 274.7
8 2900 3318.6 3701.7 -801.7 801.7
9 3800 3678.2 2999.9 800.1 800.1
10 4500 4037.8 4431.3 68.7 68.7
3
11 4000 4397.4 4272.2 -272.2 272.2
12 4900 4757.1 5306.2 -406.2 406.2
13 2779.16667 5116.7
14 5476.3 1 0.82
4
15 5835.9 2 1.10
16 6195.5 3 0.97
4 1.12
 suma
ERROR SCEP EPAM SS
ABS DAM
53.5 -53.5 53.5 8.92% -1.0
329.5 222.5 164.7 15.33% 1.4
352.3 245.3 117.4 9.65% 2.1
949.5 -351.9 237.4 18.44% -1.5
1522.7 221.4 304.5 20.17% 0.7
1770.1 468.7 295.0 16.62% 1.6
2044.8 194.0 292.1 15.43% 0.7
2846.5 -607.7 355.8 17.63% -1.7
3646.5 192.4 405.2 18.28% 0.5
3715.2 261.1 371.5 15.20% 0.7
3987.4 -11.1 362.5 14.02% 0.0
4393.6 -417.3 366.1 13.17% -1.1
4393.6
4394.4
4395.5
4396.5
4397.6
año PERIODO Ventas pronostico ajuste pronostico ERROR A - ERROR
X y F estacional ajust F ABS

1 600 801.3 0.75 762.14 -162.1 162.1

2 1550 1160.9 1.34 1409.42 140.6 140.6
1
3 1500 1520.5 0.99 1406.38 93.6 93.6
4 1500 1880.1 0.80 1693.20 -193.2 193.2
5 2400 2239.7 1.07 2130.34 269.7 269.7
6 3100 2599.4 1.19 3155.83 -55.8 55.8
2
7 2600 2959.0 0.88 2736.87 -136.9 136.9
8 2900 3318.6 0.87 2988.65 -88.6 88.6
9 3800 3678.2 1.03 3498.54 301.5 301.5
10 4500 4037.8 1.11 4902.23 -402.2 402.2
3
11 4000 4397.4 0.91 4067.35 -67.4 67.4
12 4900 4757.1 1.03 4284.09 615.9 615.9
13 5116.7 4866.74
14 5476.3 6648.64 facto est
4
15 5835.9 5397.84 1 0.95
16 6195.5 5579.54 2 1.21
3 0.92
4 0.90
 suma
ERROR SCEP EPAM SS
ABS DAM
162.1 -162.1 162.1 27.02% -1.0
302.7 -21.6 151.4 14.08% -0.1
396.3 72.1 132.1 10.86% 0.5
589.5 -121.1 147.4 11.45% -0.8
859.2 148.5 171.8 11.38% 0.9
915.0 92.7 152.5 8.59% 0.6
1051.9 -44.2 150.3 7.94% -0.3
1140.5 -132.8 142.6 7.06% -0.9
1442.0 168.6 160.2 7.23% 1.1
1844.2 -233.6 184.4 7.54% -1.3
1911.6 -301.0 173.8 6.72% -1.7
2527.5 314.9 210.6 7.58% 1.5
 demanda
PERIODO Ventas pronostico pronostico pronostico
año no
X y F 2 ajust
estacional
1 600 801.3 735.7 897.2 731.7
2 1550 1160.9 1412.4 1239.3 1360.1
1
3 1500 1520.5 1544.0 1581.5 1536.5
4 1500 1880.1 1344.8 1923.7 2145.8
5 2400 2239.7 2942.6 2265.9 1848.0
6 3100 2599.4 2824.7 2608.1 2862.2
2
7 2600 2959.0 2676.2 2950.3 2866.2
8 2900 3318.6 2599.9 3292.4 3672.5
9 3800 3678.2 4659.2 3634.6 2964.4
10 4500 4037.8 4100.4 3976.8 4364.3
3
11 4000 4397.4 4117.3 4319.0 4196.0
12 4900 4757.1 4392.9 4661.2 5199.3
13 2779.16667 5116.7 5003.3 4080.7
14 5476.3 5345.5 5866.5
4
15 5835.9 5687.7 5525.7
16 6195.5 6029.9 6726.0
 suma
ERROR A ERROR
ERROR SCEP EPAM SS
-F ABS
ABS DAM
-131.7 131.7 131.7 -131.7 131.7 21.95% -1.0
189.9 189.9 321.6 58.2 160.8 14.96% 0.4
-36.5 36.5 358.1 21.7 119.4 9.81% 0.2
-645.8 645.8 1003.9 -624.1 251.0 19.49% -2.5
552.0 552.0 1555.8 -72.2 311.2 20.61% -0.2
237.8 237.8 1793.6 165.6 298.9 16.84% 0.6
-266.2 266.2 2059.8 -100.6 294.3 15.55% -0.3
-772.5 772.5 2832.3 -873.1 354.0 17.54% -2.5
835.6 835.6 3668.0 -37.5 407.6 18.39% -0.1
135.7 135.7 3803.6 98.1 380.4 15.56% 0.3
-196.0 196.0 3999.6 -97.8 363.6 14.06% -0.3
-299.3 299.3 4298.8 -397.1 358.2 12.89% -1.1
4298.8
1 0.82 4299.6
2 1.10 4300.7
3 0.97 4301.7
4 1.12 4302.8
 demanda pronostico
año PERIODO Ventas pronostico ajuste
no no
X y F estacional
estacional estacional
1 600 801.3 0.75 630.81 719.30
2 1550 1160.9 1.34 1276.69 1100.18
1
3 1500 1520.5 0.99 1621.73 1481.06
4 1500 1880.1 0.80 1665.60 1861.95
5 2400 2239.7 1.07 2523.25 2242.83
6 3100 2599.4 1.19 2553.37 2623.71
2
7 2600 2959.0 0.88 2811.00 3004.59
8 2900 3318.6 0.87 3220.16 3385.48
9 3800 3678.2 1.03 3995.14 3766.36
10 4500 4037.8 1.11 3706.51 4147.24
3
11 4000 4397.4 0.91 4324.62 4528.12
12 4900 4757.1 1.03 5440.95 4909.01
13 5116.7 5289.89
14 5476.3 5670.77
4
15 5835.9 6051.66
16 6195.5 6432.54
 suma
pronostico ERROR A - ERROR
ERROR SCEP EPAM SS
ajust F ABS
ABS DAM
684.16 -84.2 84.2 84.2 -84.2 84.2 14.03% -1.0
1335.71 214.3 214.3 298.5 130.1 149.2 13.88% 0.9
1369.89 130.1 130.1 428.6 260.2 142.9 11.74% 1.8
1676.83 -176.8 176.8 605.4 83.4 151.3 11.76% 0.6
2133.28 266.7 266.7 872.1 350.1 174.4 11.55% 2.0
3185.39 -85.4 85.4 957.5 264.7 159.6 8.99% 1.7
2779.06 -179.1 179.1 1136.6 85.7 162.4 8.58% 0.5
3048.88 -148.9 148.9 1285.5 -63.2 160.7 7.96% -0.4
3582.39 217.6 217.6 1503.1 154.4 167.0 7.53% 0.9
5035.08 -535.1 535.1 2038.1 -380.7 203.8 8.34% -1.9
4188.23 -188.2 188.2 2226.4 -568.9 202.4 7.83% -2.8
4420.94 479.1 479.1 2705.4 -89.9 225.5 8.11% -0.4
5031.50
6884.77 facto est
5597.40 1 0.95
5793.00 2 1.21
3 0.92
4 0.90