RELIANCE POWER - “BUY” 5th February, 2010

Stock details :

BSE Code 532939

CMP Rs. 140/-

Market Capitalisation (Rs. in mn) Rs. 335,699 mn

Face Value (Rs.) 10

Book Value (Rs.) 57.55

52 Wk High (BSE) Rs. 210/- (15th Jun, 09)

52 Wk Low (BSE) Rs. 89.45/- (12th Mar, 09)

Company Profile:
Reliance Power Limited is Reliance’s Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG) company and is established to
develop, construct and operate power projects domestically and internationally.

It is currently developing 16 large and medium sized power projects with a total planned installed capacity of
33,480 MW, one of the largest portfolios of power generation assets under development in India.

Reliance Power’s, 16 power projects are planned to be diverse in geographic location, fuel type, fuel source and
off-take, and each project is planned to be strategically located near an available fuel supply or load center.

Reliance Power targets to become one of the largest private sector generation companies in India by 2017.

Reliance Power plans to become over 3,300-MW Company by the end of the Eleventh Plan (2007-12).

The projects are well diversified and plants in six states across 13 locations.

Reliance Power Project Portfolio:

Particulars Capacity (MW)
Domestic Coal Based 13,380
Imported Coal Based 5,200
Gas Based 10,280
Hydro Based 4,620
Total 33,480

Office No.2, Rajgriha, First Floor, Four Bungalow Junction, Andheri (W) Mumbai – 400 058 1
They include 8 coal-based projects (18,580 MW) to be fueled by reserves from captive mines and supplies from
India and abroad, two gas-based projects – Dadri Project (74,80 MW) + Sahapur Gas (2,800) = 10,280 MW to be
fueled primarily by reserves from the Krishna Godavari Basin (the "KG Basin") off the east coast of India and
seven hydroelectric projects (4,620 MW), 6 of them in Arunachal Pradesh and one in Uttarakhand. The Company
intends to sell the power generated by these projects under a combination of long-term and short-term Power
Purchase Agreements (PPAs) to state-owned and private distribution companies and industrial consumers.

Projects spreading across geographies:

The identified project sites are located in western India (12,520 MW), northern India (9,080 MW), northeastern
India (4,220 MW), southern India (4,000 MW) and eastern India (3960 MW).Identified Project Sites:

Project Sites Capacity (MW)

Western India 12,520

Northern India 9,080

Northeastern India 4,220

Southern India 4,000

Eastern India 3,960

Summary of milestones for Reliance Power’s upcoming projects:

Project Capacity Project Cost Expected Environment Land Financial EPC
(MW) (Rs.) COD Clearance Possessi Closure Award
on
Rosa – I 600 27,020 mn Completed Yes Yes Yes Yes

Rosa – II 600 24,600 mn Sep 10 Yes Yes Yes Yes

Sasan 3,960 183,420 mn May 2013 Yes Yes Yes Yes

Butibori 300 14,050 mn June 2010 Yes Yes Yes Yes

Krishnapatnam 4,000 165,376 mn FY 14 Yes Yes No No

Shahapur Coal 1,200 48,000 mn Dec 2011 Yes Yes No No

Chitrangi (MP) 3,960 158,420 mn July 2014 Yes No No No

Dadri Gas 7,480 224,400 mn Mar 2013 Yes No No No

Shahapur Gas 2,800 84,000 mn Yes No No No

Urthing Sobia 400 20,800 mn Mar 2014 Yes No No No

Siyom 1,000 57,800 mn Mar 2015 No No No No

Tato II 700 40,450 mn Mar 2014 No No No No

Kalai II 1,200 72,950 mn Mar 2016 No No No No

Total 1,121,286 mn

Office No.2, Rajgriha, First Floor, Four Bungalow Junction, Andheri (W) Mumbai – 400 058 2
Project updates:

Project Capacity Expected CoD* Update

Rosa Phase I 600 Q4 FY 10 Construction of 600 MW plant completed,

commence supply of power to UPPCL (UP
Power Corporation Ltd.) from April 2010

Rosa Phase II 600 FY 12 Construction activity commenced

Sasan 3,960 Q4 FY 12 Site grading completed

Butibori 300 FY 12 Boiler erection to start early next quarter,

RPower has bid for Case I Reliance Infra bid to
supply 124 MW in FY 13 -14

Krishnapatnam 4,000 FY 14 Land acquisition and infrastructure development

is being completed

Thilaiya 3,960 FY 16 Shell company acquired from PFC, mine plan

may be submitted for approval by Jan 10

MP – Power 3,960 FY 15 Launched financing for the project

Chitrangi

Office No.2, Rajgriha, First Floor, Four Bungalow Junction, Andheri (W) Mumbai – 400 058 3
Competitive Strengths:

It is well positioned to tap the growth opportunity in the Indian power sector and become one of the leading
Independent Power Producers (IPPs) in India because of the following:

1) One of the Largest Portfolios of Power Generation Projects under Development in India: It is
developing 16 large and medium sized power projects with a combined planned installed capacity of
33,480 MW, and comprises one of the largest power generation portfolios under development in India.

Its portfolio includes some of the most significant power projects in the industry.

a) Sasan, a 3,960 MW coal-fired UMPP to be located in Madhya Pradesh, is expected to be the

largest pithead coal-fired power project at a single location in India.

b) Dadri, a 7,480 MW gas-fired project to be located in Uttar Pradesh, is expected to be the largest
gas-fired power project at a single location in the world.

c) Krishnapatnam, a 4,000 MW coal-fired project, is the third UMPP.

Given the size of the portfolio and these projects, it is expected to benefit from economies of scale in our
dealings, including in sourcing fuel and equipment supplies.

2) A Diversified Portfolio of Power Projects: It has planned projects that are diverse in geographic
location, fuel type, fuel source and off-take. The identified project sites are located in western India,
northern India, north-eastern India and southern India. They include seven coal-fired projects
(14,620 MW) employing supercritical (13,120 MW) and subcritical (1,500 MW) PCC technology, 2 gas-
fired projects (10,280 MW) employing combined cycle gas turbine technology and 4 hydroelectric
projects (3,300 MW). It plans to source coal from captive mines and supplies from India and abroad, and
it plans to source gas from the KG Basin through RNRL and from other sources.

Its hydroelectric projects will be run-of-the-river projects, 3 of them to be located in Arunachal Pradesh
and one to be located in Uttarakhand.

It intends to maintain a judicious mix of off-take arrangements, including long-term PPAs to provide a
level of committed revenues and short-term PPAs to maximize revenues. It plans to sell its power to
state-owned and private distribution companies and industrial consumers. It also intends to invest in
overseas opportunities that are a strategic fit with its business.

3) Strategically Located Power Projects: It has located the majority of its projects in the northern,
western and north-eastern regions of India to cater to the significant unmet demand in the northern and
western regions of India. According to the (Central Electricity Authority) CEA, the peak deficit was 9,639
MW in western India and 2,813 MW in northern India for the period between April and September 2007.
As the peak demand for the fiscal year ended March 31, 2007 was 104,867 MW and CEA expects it to
grow to 152,746 MW and 218,209 MW by the fiscal years ending March 31, 2012 and March 31, 2017,
respectively,

We believe that its projects are well positioned to serve expected demand. In addition, it has planned for
each project to be situated either close to its fuel source or load center. For example, fuel for its
3,960 MW coal-fired power project in Sasan will be supplied by captive pithead coalmines, ~ 25 km from
the project site. In the case of Rosa Phase I, the entire 600 MW of power will be sold to UPPCL and
transmitted to a UPPCL substation approximately 20 km from the project site.

Office No.2, Rajgriha, First Floor, Four Bungalow Junction, Andheri (W) Mumbai – 400 058 4
Competitive Strengths:

4) Reliance ADA group’s experience and expertise in the Indian Power Sector: REL (Reliance Energy
Ltd.) and its affiliates have expertise in the development, operation of power projects, distribution,
transmission and trading of power in India. RNRL (Reliance Natural Resources Ltd.) is in the business of
sourcing, transportation of gas, coal & liquid fuels and has represented to Reliance Power that it has
rights to significant estimated gas reserves in the KG Basin.

It expects to draw on the expertise of REL in providing EPC services and to benefit from the rights that
RNRL has to these fuel reserves. RELs involvement in the development of Reliance Power projects will
help it improve its project execution capabilities, achieve economies of scale and exploit new power
generation opportunities.

Reliance Power entered into an MOU with REL under which it may approach REL to negotiate a contract
for its EPC services on a project-by-project basis in the future.

It has entered into MOUs with RNRL to negotiate a definitive GSTA to supply 28 mmscmd plus additional
option volume as described below under “—Description of Project Under Development— Dadri—7,480
MW Gas-Fired Power Project, Uttar Pradesh—Fuel Supply” and to negotiate a definitive Coal Supply
Agreement for the supply of imported coal.

In addition, it has entered into an MOU with Reliance Energy Transmission under which it may approach
Reliance Energy Transmission to negotiate a contract for transmission services on a project-by-project
basis in the future.

Office No.2, Rajgriha, First Floor, Four Bungalow Junction, Andheri (W) Mumbai – 400 058 5
Industry Overview :

According to the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy, India would have to install nearly 8, 00,000 MW
of power capacity by 2031-32, to sustain an annual GDP growth rate of 8%. This translates into a capacity
addition of over 30,000 MW every year for the next 20 years.

During financial year 2008-09, new power generating capacity amounting to more than 4,905 MW was added
taking the total installed capacity at end of financial year FY09 to 1,47,966 MW.

The fuels source-wise and region-wise break-up of power generation capacity in India as on March 31, 2009 is
given below

Particulars Thermal
Region Coal Gas Diesel Total Nuclear Hydro RES Total
North India 19,140 3,531 13 22,684 1,180 13,425 1,766 39,055
West India 25,918 6,983 18 32,919 1,840 7,449 4,024 46,231
South India 16,410 3,679 939 21,028 1,100 10,954 7,048 40,130
East India 15,739 190 17 15,946 0 3,934 227 20,108
North East India 170 766 143 1,079 0 1,116 171 2,366
Islands 0 0 70 70 0 0 6 76
All India 77,376 15,149 1,200 93,725 4,120 36,878 13,242 147,966

India has been traditionally dependent on thermal power as a source of power generation, which constitutes
about 63% of the current capacity. The balance is contributed by:

Hydroelectric Power 25%

Nuclear 3%

Renewable Energy 9%

The western region accounts for the largest share (31%) of the installed power generation capacity in India
followed by the southern region with (27%) and the northern region with (26%). The southern region remains the
dominant region in renewable energy source accounting for more than (53%) of the total renewable energy based
installed capacity.

The increase in installed power generation capacity has however not kept pace with the increase in demand for
power thus leading to power shortages. The per capita consumption of electricity increased from 15 kwh in 1950
to 704 kwh in FY 2007-08, which however continues to be very low in comparison to other developed and
developing countries.

Office No.2, Rajgriha, First Floor, Four Bungalow Junction, Andheri (W) Mumbai – 400 058 6
 Industry Overview:

The gap in demand and supply

ply has led to significant shortages which is evident from the figures of FY 09:

Region Energy Energy Deficit Peak Demand Peak Deficit (%)

requirement (%) (in MW)
(in MW)

North India 224,218 (10.8) 33,034 (10.7)

West India 254,486 (16) 37,240 (19)

South India 204,086 (7.5) 28,340 (7.4)

East India 82,127 (4.6) 12,901 (9.4)

North East India 9,407 (13.5) 1,820 (25.4)

Source: Power scenario as a glance, April 2009, Central Electricity.

Ultra Mega Power Projects
Development of Ultra Mega Power er Projects (“UMPPs”) has been identified by GoI as a key area of potential
development. These are very large sized projects, ~ 4,000 MW each, involving an estimated investment of about
Rs. 160,000 million. These projects are designed to meet power needs o off a number of states and distribution
companies located in these states, and are being developed on a Build, Own, and Operate (“BOO”) basis.

The Ultra Mega Power Projects involve Super Critical Technology which would help in achieving higher levels of
fuell efficiency, which results in saving of fuel and lower green
green-house
house gas emissions which will involve huge
opportunities for majors like Reliance Power since company has the technological excellence along with superior
project execution capabilities. Reliance
ce Power is playing a significant role in development of UMPP
UMPP.

Shareholding pattern as on December 2009

0.76%
0.30%
3.55% 10.61%

84.78%

Promoters Financial Institutional Investors Mutual Funds Insurance Companies Others

Office No.2, Rajgriha, First Floor, Four Bungalow Junction, Andheri (W) Mumbai – 400 058 7
Risks and concerns:

Power projects are highly capital intensive and have a long gestation period. There are different stages in the
project development cycle, each one of which carries different risks. Some of the critical milestones of the
development phase are;
• requisite statutory approvals
• land acquisition
• fuel, water and transmission linkages
• financial closure
• construction and commissioning

During the construction phase, ensuring that all supply and erection contracts are placed on time and within the
original cost estimates is a critical challenge. Afterwards, it is equally critical that all the vendors and contractors
perform theirresponsibilities in the assigned time frame.

During the operations phase, operating and maintaining the power plant efficiently and ensuring that operational
costs and performance are maintained in line with the norms, is the major challenge.

The key risks are fuel availability; equipment availability and performance; funding costs; and payment security,
as well as off-take related and project execution risks.

Project execution risks: For the following projects of ~ 17,540 MW, land acquisition is not yet complete.

Project Capacity Environment Land Financial EPC Fuel >50% capacity

(MW) Clearance Possession Closure Award Security Offtake
Agreement
Chitrangi 3,960 Yes No No No Yes No

Dadri Gas 7,480 Yes No No No No No

Shahapur Gas 2,800 Yes No No No No No

Urthing Sobia 400 Yes No No No No No

Siyom 1,000 No No No No No No

Tato II 700 No No No No No No

Kalal II 1,200 No No No No No No

Office No.2, Rajgriha, First Floor, Four Bungalow Junction, Andheri (W) Mumbai – 400 058 8
Financials - Income Statement – (Rs. in millions)

Particulars FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E

Net Sales - - 1,511 12,261

Expenditure

Employee cost 32 245 300 2,434

Admin and other expenses 375 786 1,000 4,300

EBITDA (407) (1,031) 211 5,527

Depreciation - 2 180 1,500

EBIT (407) (1,034) 31 4,027

Interest - - 310 2,600

Other income 1,329 3,604 11,634 8,000

Profit before Tax and Minority Interest 921 2,570 11,355 9,427

Provision for taxation 68 125 1,864 1,880

Profit after Tax and Minority Interest 853 2,445 9,491 7,547

No. of equity shares 2,397 2,397 2,397 2,397

EPS 0.36 1.02 3.96 3.15

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Balance Sheet – (Rs. in millions)

Particulars FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E

LIABILITIES

Share Capital 22,600 23,968 23,968 23,968

Reserves and Surplus 112,735 113,824 123,315 130,862

Secured Loans 4,483 13,325 190,500 550,880

Total 139,818 151,117 337,783 705,710

ASSETS

Gross Block 2,148 2,952 165,536 387,351

Less: Depreciation 17 73 253 1,753

Net Block 2,131 2,879 165,283 385,598

CWIP 8,178 46,780 135,000 287,500

Investments 131,234 103,172 27,000 15,000

Net Current Assets (1,725) (1,714) 10,500 17,612

Total 139,818 151,117 337,783 705,710

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Cash Flow Statement – (Rs. in millions)

Particulars FY 08 FY 09 FY 10E FY 11E

Net Profit before Tax 921 2,570 11,355 9,427

Net Cash Flow from Operating Activities (A) (571) (1825) (5,870) 1,787

Net Cash Flow from Investing Activities (B) (123,215) (7,760) (164,863) (356,19
5)

Net Cash Flow from Financing Activities (C) 128,038 5,531 176,865 357,780

Increase/(Decrease) in cash & cash equivalents during the 4,252 (4,054) 6,133 3,372
year

Cash and Cash Equivalents at the beginning of the year 16.24 4,269 215 2,349

Cash and Cash Equivalents at the end of the year 4268.24 215 2,349 5,721

Office No.2, Rajgriha, First Floor, Four Bungalow Junction, Andheri (W) Mumbai – 400 058 11
Investment rationale:

Securing Fuel - Accelerating Growth:

Fuel availability and its pricing continue to be one of the biggest challenges for power projects in India. India has
plenty of coal reserves but the development of mines has not kept pace with REPL’s programme for the addition
of generation capacities. Hence REPL’S strategy ensures that a major portion of its coal-based generation
portfolio is supported by captive mines.

For its Krishnapatnam project of 4,000 MW, it has acquired Indonesian coal mine in south Sumatra region -
having estimated reserve of 2 bn tones for which it will pay on the volume of production the mines yield. Over the
next 8 to 10 years it expects to invest around $1 billion on developing the mines and setting up logistics facilities.
The acquisition was made by Reliance Coal Resources Private Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of Reliance Power
Limited. Reliance Power can mine up to 40 million tonnes per annum of coal from the three companies - Srivijaya
Bintangtiga Energy, Bryayan Bintangtiga Energy and Sugico Pendragon Energy – which are located in the South
Sumatra area of Indonesia spread over an area of 40,000 hectares and plans to supply coal from these mines to
its 4,000-MW ultra mega power project at Krishnapatnam in Andhra Pradesh and also to the Shahapur power
project in Maharashtra.

The valuation of the coal mine, based on its reserves, is estimated to be around Rs 20,000 crore. The coal mine,
which has resources of 2 billion tonnes, is spread over 100,000 acres, equivalent to Greater Mumbai area.

We believe that this coal mine can be compared to one of the largest coal mines in India — the Gevera coalmine
— in Chhattisgarh which has reserves of 1.2 billion tonnes and is producing around 35 million tonnes annually
and acquired mines has resources of 2 billion tonnes, it is expected that the production from this mine
should be greater than India’s largest coal mine

REPL’s acquisition is significant for India as a nation since India is competing with energy hungry countries like
China to acquire stakes in oil and coal blocks and ensure future energy security.

KG Basin Gas supply Dispute:

The Krishna Godavari basin dispute is an ongoing dispute between Reliance Industries (RIL) and Reliance
Natural Resources (RNRL) over the pricing of natural gas found in the Krishna Godavari basin. The dispute was
widely covered by the media due to its hostile nature, with the Supreme Court of India comparing it to a 'fight
between two companies.

~7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas was discovered by RIL in the Krishna Godavari basin in October 2002. In
2005, the Reliance Group was split between Anil Ambani and Mukesh Ambani with RIL going to Mukesh Ambani
and RNRL to Anil Ambani. A family pact was made in 2005 in which RIL was to supply 28 million cubic meters of
gas a day at $2.34 per million units to RNRL for 17 years. The subsidized rates were offered to RNRL as RNRL
was partying with discovered assets. However in September 2007, the Indian Government fixed a price of
$ 4.2/mBtu. Bombay High Court upheld the terms of MoU and ordered RIL to supply the gas as per the original
agreement. Hence there is an ongoing dispute between two companies

REPL’s two gas-based projects (10,280 MW) to be fueled primarily by reserves from the Krishna Godavari Basin
(the "KG Basin") off the east coast of India and the availability of gas at $2.34 per million units would be beneficial
as compared to $ 4.2/mBtu.

In June 2009, the Bombay High Court ruled in favor of Reliance Natural Resources Ltd (RNRL) in the gas
dispute case of RNRL vs. RIL. As per the verdict, RNRL will get supply of 28 mmscmd for 17 years at
$2.34/mmbtu. This would be used as a fuel for the 7,480MW Dadri project of Reliance Power. Currently, this case
is with the Supreme Court (the higher judicial authority); a favorable verdict for RNRL could act as a key positive
for Reliance Power. In their recent arguments in Supreme Court, RNRL has argued that the gas may be used for
other projects as well anywhere in the country depending on the requirement.

Office No.2, Rajgriha, First Floor, Four Bungalow Junction, Andheri (W) Mumbai – 400 058 12
 Rosa Project ahead of schedule:

Reliance Power’s 1,200 MW Rosa project commenced power generation in Dec 09. Rosa is one of the largest
private sector investment in UP with Rs. 60,000 mn. It is the first thermal private sector power project in North
India. Entire Power of Stage – I, 600 MW to be supplied to the state of UP. The project has been completed in
recorded time and is ahead of schedule.

Carbon Credits as an Additional Source of Revenue:

Clean Development Mechanism, which is one of the three mechanisms under Kyoto Protocol to reduce
Greenhouse Gases (GHG) from the environment, provides immense opportunity for project developers in
developing countries to carry out COM based projects to earn carbon credits, which are known as Certified
Emission Reductions (CERs) units. These CERs are sold for a price to the buyers in mostly developed countries
that have to either reduce their GHG emissions or buy equivalent carbon credits in the global emission trading
market to meet their compliance.

REPL is in the process of applying for registration with Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – Executive Board
for its various power projects including Sasan and Krishnapatnam Ultra Mega Power Projects (UMPPs).

Sasan and Krishnapatnam UMPPs shall be qualified under CDM to earn carbon credits as the projects
will employ super critical technology, which helps in GHG reduction. Besides, the environment-friendly
hydroelectric power projects under implementation, further REPL’s gas based generation projects will also
become eligible under COM scheme because of the lesser GHG emissions.

Thus, sales proceeds by selling carbon credits in the global emission market shall act as a new revenue
stream for the Company.

Valuation

Valuation of acquired Indoneasian Coal Mine: For its Krishnapatnam project of 4,000 MW, it has acquired
Indonesian coal mine in south Sumatra region - having estimated reserve of 2 bn tones. The valuation of the coal
mine, based on its reserves, is estimated to be ~ Rs 20,000 crore.

As a result, per share value of Coal mine value works out to be Rs.67/- per share (After discount of 20%).
The coal mine, which has resources of 2 billion tonnes, is spread over 100,000 acres, equivalent to
Greater Mumbai area.

9 months FY 10 Cash Balance stands at Rs. 94,390 mn. Per share value works out to Rs. 39/- per share.

With due consideration to the above factors like secured fuel supply, Rosa project ahead of schedule, expected
significant contribution in India’s power story, value of Indoneasian Coal Mine at Rs. 67/- per share and
Rs. 39 cash per share, we recommend a “Buy” at the current market price with a price target of Rs. 300/- on 2
years horizon.

Office No.2, Rajgriha, First Floor, Four Bungalow Junction, Andheri (W) Mumbai – 400 058 13
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