ACTIVIDAD 3

ECONOMETRIA
“TALLER DETERMINANTES DE LA INFLACIÓN”

PRESENTADO POR:
SANDRA XIMENA VILLA PINO ID: 370279

ADMINISTRACIÓN FINANCIERA
CORPORACIÓN UNIVERSITARIA MINUTO DE DIOS
SANTIAGO DE CALI
AGOSTO DE 2019
 ACTIVIDAD 3
ECONOMETRIA
“TALLER DETERMINANTES DE LA INFLACIÓN”

PRESENTADO POR:
SANDRA XIMENA VILLA PINO ID: 370279

PRESENTADO A:
JUAN CARLOS GARCÍA BERNAL

ADMINISTRACIÓN FINANCIERA
CORPORACIÓN UNIVERSITARIA MINUTO DE DIOS
SANTIAGO DE CALI
AGOSTO DE 2019
1. Incremento de la inflación en Colombia en el periodo 2015-2016:
El incremento de la inflación en este periodo se debe a muchos factores, ellos los
principales son el de gasto de canasta familiar de alimento y movimientos en el mercado
de vivienda.

2. Análisis de variables:
En el cuadro del IPC observamos y encontramos variables relacionadas como la alimentación,
vivienda, vestuario, salud, educación, diversión, transporte, etc.

Tomaremos la variable IPC como la variable dependiente en el eje Y, las variables siguientes
las tomaremos en relación al IPC como la variable independiente.

3. Ecuación del modelo.

Donde IY es la variable IPC y IX serán las variables contrastadas con el IPC.

4. Método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios.

IPC VS ALIMENTOS
Y-PROMY*X-
IPC(y) Alimeto(X) XY X2 X-PROMX Y-PROMY (X-PROMY)2
PROMX
118,9 120,0 14.273 14.406,62140 -12,60 -8,27 104,24 158,79
120,3 122,2 14.698 14.931,55448 -10,43 -6,91 72,05 108,87
121,0 123,6 14.957 15.283,55329 -9,00 -6,20 55,82 81,04
121,6 124,9 15.190 15.594,88902 -7,75 -5,55 43,02 60,05
122,0 124,5 15.188 15.509,17968 -8,09 -5,23 42,33 65,49
122,1 124,3 15.171 15.442,96231 -8,36 -5,10 42,66 69,87
122,3 124,1 15.178 15.400,00758 -8,53 -4,88 41,61 72,79
122,9 125,0 15.368 15.636,57989 -7,58 -4,29 32,53 57,49
123,8 126,7 15.677 16.041,30158 -5,97 -3,41 20,38 35,69
124,6 128,4 16.002 16.487,40719 -4,23 -2,57 10,84 17,85
125,4 129,7 16.255 16.810,57098 -2,97 -1,81 5,40 8,84
126,1 131,1 16.532 17.175,19233 -1,57 -1,04 1,63 2,48
127,8 134,7 17.218 18.156,76371 2,12 0,59 1,25 4,49
129,4 136,7 17.688 18.682,03528 4,05 2,23 9,03 16,43
130,6 138,9 18.145 19.292,35994 6,27 3,45 21,62 39,29
131,3 140,6 18.465 19.782,32686 8,02 4,10 32,86 64,34
132,0 141,3 18.645 19.966,54968 8,67 4,77 41,34 75,24
132,6 142,0 18.829 20.168,46558 9,39 5,40 50,68 88,12
133,3 143,6 19.137 20.619,44993 10,97 6,09 66,76 120,25
 132,8 141,4 18.782 19.987,62946 8,75 5,66 49,53 76,54
132,8 140,1 18.600 19.624,08684 7,46 5,59 41,70 55,61
132,7 139,4 18.491 19.418,52255 6,72 5,51 37,05 45,18
132,8 139,4 18.522 19.439,72130 6,80 5,66 38,48 46,21
133,4 140,5 18.745 19.744,30982 7,89 6,21 49,01 62,19
3.052,44913 3.183,08865 911,80448 1.433,15094
127,2 132,6

IPC VS ALIMENTOS
BETA 0,64
ALPHA 42,8

IPC VS VIVIENDA
Y-PROMY*X-
IPC Vivienda XY X2 X-PROMX Y-PROMY (X-PROMY)2
PROMX
118,91290 123,12729 14.641 15.160,32954 -7,03 -8,27 58,15 49,41
120,27993 123,77965 14.888 15.321,40200 -6,38 -6,91 44,03 40,66
120,98456 124,49487 15.062 15.498,97266 -5,66 -6,20 35,11 32,05
121,63437 125,12974 15.220 15.657,45208 -5,03 -5,55 27,90 25,27
121,95433 125,97839 15.364 15.870,55550 -4,18 -5,23 21,86 17,46
122,08236 125,89282 15.369 15.849,00313 -4,26 -5,10 21,76 18,18
122,30851 126,61676 15.486 16.031,80391 -3,54 -4,88 17,26 12,53
122,89561 127,10304 15.620 16.155,18227 -3,05 -4,29 13,10 9,32
123,77501 127,60316 15.794 16.282,56619 -2,55 -3,41 8,71 6,52
124,61929 128,29167 15.988 16.458,75182 -1,86 -2,57 4,79 3,48
125,37075 129,17259 16.194 16.685,55672 -0,98 -1,81 1,79 0,97
126,14945 129,75334 16.368 16.835,93002 -0,40 -1,04 0,42 0,16
127,77754 130,57084 16.684 17.048,74452 0,41 0,59 0,25 0,17
129,41261 131,58783 17.029 17.315,35753 1,43 2,23 3,19 2,05
130,63385 132,69124 17.334 17.606,96623 2,53 3,45 8,74 6,43
131,28192 132,50734 17.396 17.558,19568 2,35 4,10 9,63 5,53
131,95119 133,51422 17.617 17.826,04748 3,36 4,77 16,00 11,27
132,58412 134,04207 17.772 17.967,27653 3,89 5,40 20,98 15,10
133,27352 134,64093 17.944 18.128,18084 4,48 6,09 27,30 20,11
132,84716 134,84415 17.914 18.182,94425 4,69 5,66 26,54 21,97
132,77698 135,28915 17.963 18.303,15438 5,13 5,59 28,70 26,34
132,69744 135,42780 17.971 18.340,68766 5,27 5,51 29,06 27,79
132,84598 135,67281 18.024 18.407,11110 5,52 5,66 31,23 30,43
133,39977 136,02257 18.145 18.502,14037 5,87 6,21 36,45 34,41
3.052,44913 3.123,75428 492,92714 417,61208
 127,18538 130,156428

IPC VS VIVIENDA
BETA 1,18
ALPHA -26,4

IPC VS VESTUARIO
Y-PROMY*X-
IPC Vestuario XY X2 X-PROMX Y-PROMY (X-PROMY)2
PROMX
118,91290 102,15091 12.147 10.434,80801 -3,47 -8,27 28,71 12,04
120,27993 102,27954 12.302 10.461,10348 -3,34 -6,91 23,08 11,17
120,98456 102,49750 12.401 10.505,73689 -3,12 -6,20 19,37 9,76
121,63437 102,73893 12.497 10.555,28753 -2,88 -5,55 16,00 8,31
121,95433 102,96720 12.557 10.602,24469 -2,65 -5,23 13,88 7,04
122,08236 103,22847 12.602 10.656,11722 -2,39 -5,10 12,21 5,72
122,30851 103,40524 12.647 10.692,64283 -2,22 -4,88 10,81 4,91
122,89561 103,52256 12.722 10.716,92064 -2,10 -4,29 9,00 4,40
123,77501 103,83803 12.853 10.782,33544 -1,78 -3,41 6,08 3,18
124,61929 104,32900 13.001 10.884,53920 -1,29 -2,57 3,32 1,67
125,37075 104,84253 13.144 10.991,95505 -0,78 -1,81 1,41 0,61
126,14945 105,12724 13.262 11.051,73701 -0,49 -1,04 0,51 0,24
127,77754 105,67872 13.503 11.167,99102 0,06 0,59 0,03 0,00
129,41261 106,17969 13.741 11.274,12721 0,56 2,23 1,24 0,31
130,63385 106,67173 13.935 11.378,85777 1,05 3,45 3,62 1,10
131,28192 107,13442 14.065 11.477,78331 1,51 4,10 6,20 2,29
131,95119 107,53269 14.189 11.563,27856 1,91 4,77 9,11 3,65
132,58412 107,94610 14.312 11.652,36051 2,32 5,40 12,55 5,41
133,27352 108,20019 14.420 11.707,28068 2,58 6,09 15,70 6,65
132,84716 108,44051 14.406 11.759,34508 2,82 5,66 15,96 7,95
132,77698 108,66739 14.429 11.808,60143 3,05 5,59 17,03 9,28
132,69744 109,01602 14.466 11.884,49283 3,39 5,51 18,71 11,53
132,84598 109,19763 14.506 11.924,12152 3,58 5,66 20,25 12,79
133,39977 109,31490 14.583 11.949,74736 3,69 6,21 22,95 13,64
3.052,44913 2.534,90711 287,74646 143,66376
127,18538 105,621129

IPC VS VESTUARIO
BETA 2,00
ALPHA -84,4
 IPC VS SALUD
Y-PROMY*X-
IPC Salud XY X2 X-PROMX Y-PROMY (X-PROMY)2
PROMX
118,91290 128,77076 15.313 16.581,90760 -8,58 -8,27 70,96 73,59
120,27993 129,88341 15.622 16.869,70123 -7,47 -6,91 51,55 55,74
120,98456 131,17935 15.871 17.208,02292 -6,17 -6,20 38,26 38,07
121,63437 131,94609 16.049 17.409,77146 -5,40 -5,55 29,99 29,19
121,95433 132,27506 16.132 17.496,69044 -5,07 -5,23 26,54 25,75
122,08236 132,54691 16.182 17.568,68256 -4,80 -5,10 24,51 23,06
122,30851 132,90446 16.255 17.663,59575 -4,44 -4,88 21,68 19,75
122,89561 133,09841 16.357 17.715,18648 -4,25 -4,29 18,23 18,07
123,77501 133,25533 16.494 17.756,98217 -4,09 -3,41 13,96 16,76
124,61929 133,71462 16.663 17.879,59853 -3,63 -2,57 9,33 13,21
125,37075 134,09297 16.811 17.980,92407 -3,26 -1,81 5,91 10,60
126,14945 134,58981 16.978 18.114,41749 -2,76 -1,04 2,86 7,61
127,77754 136,60127 17.455 18.659,90806 -0,75 0,59 -0,44 0,56
129,41261 138,22552 17.888 19.106,29549 0,88 2,23 1,95 0,77
130,63385 139,87334 18.272 19.564,55068 2,52 3,45 8,70 6,37
131,28192 141,03908 18.516 19.892,02293 3,69 4,10 15,12 13,62
131,95119 141,76604 18.706 20.097,60953 4,42 4,77 21,05 19,51
132,58412 142,70711 18.921 20.365,32010 5,36 5,40 28,93 28,71
133,27352 143,30429 19.099 20.536,11953 5,96 6,09 36,26 35,46
132,84716 144,00731 19.131 20.738,10418 6,66 5,66 37,70 44,33
132,77698 144,74464 19.219 20.951,00965 7,40 5,59 41,35 54,69
132,69744 145,05365 19.248 21.040,56225 7,70 5,51 42,47 59,36
132,84598 145,24881 19.296 21.097,21652 7,90 5,66 44,72 62,41
133,39977 145,54917 19.416 21.184,56205 8,20 6,21 50,96 67,24
3.052,44913 3.296,37741 642,53798 724,42685
127,18538 137,349059

IPC VS SALUD
BETA 0,89
ALPHA 5,4

IPC VS EDUCACIÓN
Y-PROMY*X-
IPC Educación XY X2 X-PROMX Y-PROMY (X-PROMY)2
PROMX
118,91290 131,43994 15.630 17.276,45809 -9,92 -8,27 82,10 98,49
120,27993 137,16119 16.498 18.813,19067 -4,20 -6,91 29,02 17,67
120,98456 137,19760 16.599 18.823,18117 -4,17 -6,20 25,84 17,36
 121,63437 137,20299 16.689 18.824,66129 -4,16 -5,55 23,10 17,32
121,95433 137,23172 16.736 18.832,54497 -4,13 -5,23 21,62 17,08
122,08236 137,25931 16.757 18.840,11708 -4,11 -5,10 20,95 16,85
122,30851 137,30034 16.793 18.851,38336 -4,06 -4,88 19,82 16,52
122,89561 137,55477 16.905 18.921,31475 -3,81 -4,29 16,34 14,51
123,77501 137,90787 17.070 19.018,58033 -3,46 -3,41 11,79 11,95
124,61929 137,99650 17.197 19.043,03512 -3,37 -2,57 8,64 11,34
125,37075 138,07307 17.310 19.064,17349 -3,29 -1,81 5,97 10,83
126,14945 138,12521 17.424 19.078,57336 -3,24 -1,04 3,36 10,49
127,77754 138,22800 17.662 19.106,97888 -3,14 0,59 -1,86 9,84
129,41261 145,92316 18.884 21.293,56979 4,56 2,23 10,15 20,78
130,63385 145,96026 19.067 21.304,39750 4,60 3,45 15,85 21,12
131,28192 146,00323 19.168 21.316,94375 4,64 4,10 19,00 21,52
131,95119 146,02687 19.268 21.323,84676 4,66 4,77 22,22 21,74
132,58412 146,07976 19.368 21.339,29628 4,72 5,40 25,46 22,24
133,27352 146,13401 19.476 21.355,14771 4,77 6,09 29,04 22,75
132,84716 146,43800 19.454 21.444,08814 5,07 5,66 28,73 25,74
132,77698 146,85988 19.500 21.567,82553 5,50 5,59 30,73 30,20
132,69744 146,87041 19.489 21.570,91733 5,51 5,51 30,35 30,32
132,84598 146,88388 19.513 21.574,87509 5,52 5,66 31,24 30,47
133,39977 146,88562 19.595 21.575,38478 5,52 6,21 34,31 30,48
3.052,44913 3.392,74359 543,77185 547,60657
127,18538 141,3643164

IPC VS EDUCACIÓN
BETA 0,99
ALPHA -13,2

IPC VS DIVERSIÓN
Y-PROMY*X-
IPC Diversión XY X2 X-PROMX Y-PROMY (X-PROMY)2
PROMX
118,91290 106,48685 12.663 11.339,44922 -4,14 -8,27 34,25 17,14
120,27993 105,76239 12.721 11.185,68356 -4,86 -6,91 33,59 23,66
120,98456 105,19858 12.727 11.066,74123 -5,43 -6,20 33,66 29,47
121,63437 105,52704 12.836 11.135,95575 -5,10 -5,55 28,31 26,01
121,95433 108,42687 13.223 11.756,38657 -2,20 -5,23 11,51 4,84
122,08236 109,81174 13.406 12.058,61802 -0,82 -5,10 4,16 0,66
122,30851 107,00665 13.088 11.450,42379 -3,62 -4,88 17,66 13,11
122,89561 107,04310 13.155 11.458,22611 -3,58 -4,29 15,37 12,84
 123,77501 108,62689 13.445 11.799,80123 -2,00 -3,41 6,82 4,00
124,61929 108,54665 13.527 11.782,37414 -2,08 -2,57 5,34 4,33
125,37075 109,48045 13.726 11.985,96849 -1,15 -1,81 2,08 1,31
126,14945 110,88000 13.987 12.294,37440 0,25 -1,04 -0,26 0,06
127,77754 112,11210 14.325 12.569,12386 1,49 0,59 0,88 2,21
129,41261 113,23211 14.654 12.821,50960 2,61 2,23 5,80 6,79
130,63385 112,14183 14.650 12.575,78959 1,51 3,45 5,22 2,29
131,28192 112,31362 14.745 12.614,34834 1,69 4,10 6,91 2,84
131,95119 112,53521 14.849 12.664,17304 1,91 4,77 9,09 3,64
132,58412 116,09771 15.393 13.478,67804 5,47 5,40 29,53 29,93
133,27352 114,10397 15.207 13.019,71529 3,48 6,09 21,17 12,09
132,84716 113,99996 15.145 12.995,98997 3,37 5,66 19,10 11,38
132,77698 113,09515 15.016 12.790,51227 2,47 5,59 13,80 6,09
132,69744 113,21938 15.024 12.818,62891 2,59 5,51 14,29 6,72
132,84598 114,03406 15.149 13.003,76775 3,41 5,66 19,29 11,61
133,39977 115,36621 15.390 13.309,36241 4,74 6,21 29,45 22,46
3.052,44913 2.655,04851 367,02618 255,49388
127,1853804 110,627021

IPC VS DIVERSIÓN
BETA 1,44
ALPHA -31,7

IPC VS TRANSPORTE
Y-PROMY*X-
IPC Transporte XY X2 X-PROMX Y-PROMY (X-PROMY)2
PROMX
118,91290 114,06429 13.564 13.010,66294 -4,88 -8,27 40,41 23,86
120,27993 114,57189 13.781 13.126,71889 -4,38 -6,91 30,23 19,16
120,98456 114,39650 13.840 13.086,55944 -4,55 -6,20 28,23 20,73
121,63437 114,57624 13.936 13.127,71546 -4,37 -5,55 24,27 19,12
121,95433 114,53602 13.968 13.118,49988 -4,41 -5,23 23,09 19,48
122,08236 115,35124 14.082 13.305,90834 -3,60 -5,10 18,36 12,94
122,30851 115,81741 14.165 13.413,67292 -3,13 -4,88 15,27 9,81
122,89561 116,52868 14.321 13.578,93280 -2,42 -4,29 10,38 5,86
123,77501 117,44484 14.537 13.793,29115 -1,50 -3,41 5,13 2,26
124,61929 117,86698 14.688 13.892,62403 -1,08 -2,57 2,78 1,17
125,37075 117,85522 14.776 13.889,85288 -1,09 -1,81 1,99 1,20
126,14945 118,36689 14.932 14.010,72065 -0,58 -1,04 0,60 0,34
127,77754 119,21324 15.233 14.211,79588 0,26 0,59 0,16 0,07
 129,41261 120,19995 15.555 14.448,02870 1,25 2,23 2,79 1,56
130,63385 120,51761 15.744 14.524,49408 1,57 3,45 5,41 2,46
131,28192 121,06943 15.894 14.657,80591 2,12 4,10 8,69 4,50
131,95119 121,66600 16.054 14.802,61483 2,72 4,77 12,95 7,38
132,58412 122,16483 16.197 14.924,24593 3,22 5,40 17,36 10,34
133,27352 122,38740 16.311 14.978,67666 3,44 6,09 20,93 11,82
132,84716 122,81050 16.315 15.082,41842 3,86 5,66 21,86 14,91
132,77698 123,05297 16.339 15.142,03318 4,10 5,59 22,95 16,84
132,69744 123,35637 16.369 15.216,79402 4,41 5,51 24,29 19,42
132,84598 123,30944 16.381 15.205,21873 4,36 5,66 24,68 19,01
133,39977 123,65545 16.496 15.290,67130 4,71 6,21 29,25 22,15
3.052,44913 2.854,77940 392,04694 266,39774
127,18538 118,9491417

IPC VS TRANSPORTES
BETA 1,47
ALPHA -47,9

IPC VS COMUNICACIONES
Y-PROMY*X-
IPC Comunicaciones XY X2 X-PROMX Y-PROMY (X-PROMY)2
PROMX
118,91290 110,94581 13.193 12.308,97165 -6,28 -8,27 51,97 3
120,27993 113,60396 13.664 12.905,85882 -3,62 -6,91 25,02 1
120,98456 114,64314 13.870 13.143,04909 -2,58 -6,20 16,03
121,63437 114,58508 13.937 13.129,73964 -2,64 -5,55 14,67
121,95433 114,59059 13.975 13.131,00377 -2,64 -5,23 13,80
122,08236 114,99043 14.038 13.222,79945 -2,24 -5,10 11,42
122,30851 115,57903 14.136 13.358,51194 -1,65 -4,88 8,04
122,89561 115,60545 14.207 13.364,62099 -1,62 -4,29 6,96
123,77501 115,56073 14.304 13.354,28162 -1,67 -3,41 5,69
124,61929 115,61982 14.408 13.367,94162 -1,61 -2,57 4,13
125,37075 116,06455 14.551 13.470,98023 -1,16 -1,81 2,11
126,14945 116,13484 14.650 13.487,30176 -1,09 -1,04 1,13
127,77754 116,48985 14.885 13.569,88608 -0,74 0,59 -0,44
129,41261 116,49215 15.076 13.570,41985 -0,74 2,23 -1,64
130,63385 119,14383 15.564 14.195,25223 1,92 3,45 6,61
131,28192 119,16332 15.644 14.199,89564 1,94 4,10 7,93
131,95119 119,13406 15.720 14.192,92473 1,91 4,77 9,08
132,58412 119,18016 15.801 14.203,91078 1,95 5,40 10,54
 133,27352 119,96017 15.988 14.390,44239 2,73 6,09 16,63
132,84716 119,88999 15.927 14.373,61042 2,66 5,66 15,07
132,77698 121,64709 16.152 14.798,01402 4,42 5,59 24,71 1
132,69744 121,42020 16.112 14.742,86497 4,19 5,51 23,11 1
132,84598 121,40855 16.129 14.740,03577 4,18 5,66 23,67 1
133,39977 121,61477 16.223 14.790,15155 4,39 6,21 27,26 1
3.052,44913 2.813,46755 323,49788 195,81
127,1853804 117,2278147

IPC VS COMUNICACIONES
BETA 1,65
ALPHA -66,5

IPC VS OTROS GASTOS

Otros Y-PROMY*X-
IPC XY X2 X-PROMX Y-PROMY (X-PROMY)2
Gastos PROMX
118,91290 114,84168 13.656 13.188,61192 -8,51 -8,27 70,43 72
120,27993 115,53239 13.896 13.347,73406 -7,82 -6,91 54,02 61
120,98456 116,25614 14.065 13.515,49102 -7,10 -6,20 44,02 50
121,63437 116,86270 14.215 13.656,89042 -6,49 -5,55 36,04 42
121,95433 117,74649 14.360 13.864,23638 -5,61 -5,23 29,34 31
122,08236 118,14855 14.424 13.959,07916 -5,21 -5,10 26,57 27
122,30851 118,63791 14.510 14.074,95250 -4,72 -4,88 23,01 22
122,89561 119,22549 14.652 14.214,71675 -4,13 -4,29 17,72 17
123,77501 119,98581 14.851 14.396,59532 -3,37 -3,41 11,49 11
124,61929 120,58703 15.027 14.541,23253 -2,77 -2,57 7,10 7
125,37075 121,36241 15.215 14.728,83383 -1,99 -1,81 3,62 3
126,14945 122,24184 15.421 14.943,06842 -1,11 -1,04 1,15 1
127,77754 123,45296 15.775 15.240,63259 0,10 0,59 0,06 0
129,41261 124,89595 16.163 15.598,99758 1,54 2,23 3,43 2
130,63385 126,21148 16.487 15.929,33667 2,86 3,45 9,85 8
131,28192 127,22458 16.702 16.186,09401 3,87 4,10 15,85 14
131,95119 127,94705 16.883 16.370,44658 4,59 4,77 21,88 21
132,58412 128,54291 17.043 16.523,27971 5,19 5,40 28,01 26
133,27352 129,04473 17.198 16.652,54234 5,69 6,09 34,64 32
132,84716 129,55808 17.211 16.785,29713 6,20 5,66 35,12 38
132,77698 130,06583 17.270 16.917,11987 6,71 5,59 37,52 45
132,69744 130,35987 17.298 16.993,69597 7,00 5,51 38,61 49
132,84598 130,68696 17.361 17.079,08099 7,33 5,66 41,50 53
133,39977 131,10542 17.489 17.188,62984 7,75 6,21 48,16 60
 3.052,44913 2.960,52425 639,13962 700,60
127,1853804 123,355177

IPC VS GASTOS
BETA 0,91
ALPHA 14,7

5. Discusión.
Observando y analizando los coeficientes mediante el método de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios,
se puede decir que la variable IPC se afecta en mayor parte con la relación en la variable
Vestuarios con una afectación de dos (2) en el IPC por unidad en el gasto de vestuarios,
continuo de la variable trasporte y recreación, lo cual nos indica que el nivel de gasto en estas
tres (3) variables son determinantes en el incremente del PIB en el periodo 2015.2016,
transformando la hipótesis inicial con respecto a este el efecto económico en Colombia.
Sin embargo, las variables que mejor explican y aclaran el comportamiento de IPC son la
variable de Alimentos y de Vivienda.

6. Anexo análisis regresión Excel

 BIBILIOGRAFIA.

https://danielmorochoruiz.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/0000017.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4igLhlCkAA