L'année Trimestre Yt St-1 Tt-1 Y^t Et

t1
t2 9,050.00 8,999.78 100.44 9,100.22 - 50.22
1,972.00
t3 9,380.00 9,080.12 80.54 9,160.66 219.34
t4 9,378.00 9,248.44 167.44 9,415.89 - 37.89
t1 9,680.00 9,400.72 152.43 9,553.16 126.84
t2 10,100.00 9,603.92 202.69 9,806.61 293.39
1,973.00
t3 10,160.00 9,924.02 318.93 10,242.95 - 82.95
t4 10,469.00 10,209.75 286.06 10,495.82 - 26.82
t1 10,738.00 10,485.09 275.44 10,760.52 - 22.52
t2 10,910.00 10,751.51 266.51 11,018.02 - 108.02
1,974.00
t3 11,058.00 10,974.79 223.72 11,198.51 - 140.51
t4 11,016.00 11,142.28 168.05 11,310.32 - 294.32
t1 10,869.00 11,192.54 51.44 11,243.97 - 374.97
t2 11,034.00 11,093.91 - 97.13 10,996.78 37.22
1,975.00
t3 11,135.00 11,011.68 - 82.38 10,929.30 205.70
t4 10,485.00 11,011.62 - 0.88 11,010.74 - 525.74
t1 11,106.00 10,800.34 - 209.18 10,591.16 514.84
t2 11,115.00 10,797.20 - 5.20 10,792.00 323.00
1,976.00
t3 11,424.00 10,921.26 122.77 11,044.04 379.96
t4 10,895.00 11,196.10 273.31 11,469.41 - 574.41
t1 11,437.00 11,239.53 45.73 11,285.27 151.73
t2 11,352.00 11,345.99 105.85 11,451.84 - 99.84
1,977.00
t3 11,381.00 11,411.88 66.29 11,478.18 - 97.18
t4 11,401.00 11,439.29 27.79 11,467.08 - 66.08
t1 11,507.00 11,440.63 1.61 11,442.25 64.75
t2 11,453.00 11,468.16 27.27 11,495.43 - 42.43
1,978.00
t3 11,561.00 11,478.45 10.46 11,488.91 72.09
t4
alpha 0.40
beta 0.99

MSE 1,642,782.87

Chart Title
Column C Column F

12,000.00

11,500.00

11,000.00

10,500.00

10,000.00

9,500.00

9,000.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
mn F

5 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
 Yt T t-1 Tt-1 St-1 + Tt-1 I t-s Ŷ
1 8 1
2 14
3 17
4 10
5 18
6 22
7 24
8 12
9 24
10 31
11 35
12 20

alpha 0.5
beta 0.3
gama 0.7
40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3
 Yt
40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

k 3
S 4