CHAPTER V

CLIMATE SCENARIO AND SUSTAINABLE

AGRICULTURE: AN INDIAN CONTEXT
5.1. INTRODUCTION

Agriculture is most sensitive to the climate change in India. The performance

of agriculture is one of the most determined by the climatic conditions. The growth of
the crops and their health also depends on the quality and texture of the soil which is
the primary determinant. In fact that agriculture today accounts for about 12 per
cent share of our total National Income while it continues to provide livelihood to
about 55 per cent of our population is a matter of challenge which can only be
addressed through the sustainable agriculture production. The Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recognized that India is one of the most
vulnerable countries in the world because of negative impacts of climate change on
agriculture production. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has
identified India to be the most vulnerable country in the world for tropical cyclones
and the sixth most vulnerable country for floods (UNDP, 2004). The threats to
sustainable agriculture production have the impacts of climate change to achieve the
food security and livelihood problem in India. The climate change phenomenon is at
present a widespread reality.

Climate change has severe serious issues related to agricultural production,

yield, sustainability, food security, self-resilience and economic stability. It has
significant implications for the sustainable agricultural development and
environmental status in India. The behaviour of climate, including variability and
extreme events, has played a significant role in the overall economic development,
especially the agriculture productivity, food security and the livelihood of the people
in the country. The Global warming trend showing in India over the past 100 years
was estimated at 0.60°C. The future impacts are likely to further aggravated
agricultural productivity and production with impact on food security in India (Shetty
et al., 2013).

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 The climate change is a major challenge for the sustainable agriculture
development, food security and rural livelihoods for the poor in the country. About
55 per cent of the population directly depends on agriculture sector as a source of
livelihood in India. Their adverse impacts in the form of declining rainfall and rising
temperatures have increased the severity of droughts and floods. A decrease of wheat
yield by 400 kg/ha for a unit increase of 1oC temperature (Morey and Sadhaphal,
1981). Chaudhary and Aggarwal (2009) showed to have significant impacts on the sea
level, agricultural eco-systems and thus on crop production leading to food insecurity
of the poor and marginalised population, especially in the rural areas marginal and
small farmers. According to the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR,
2002), the climate change has been projected to reduce estimable wheat production
under sown irrigated land to about 6 per cent until the end of 2020. In the case of late
sown wheat, the projected levels are alarmingly high, to the extent of 18 per cent.
Similarly, about 4 per cent fall in the yield of the irrigated rice crop and
approximately 6 per cent decline in rain-fed rice has been anticipated by 2020 due to
climate changes.

During 1951-1980 the global mean temperature has increased about 0.57°C,
continues the strong global warming trend of the past 30 years that has been
confidently attributed to the effect of increasing the Greenhouse Gasses (Hansen et
al., 2007). Kumar and Parikh (2001) have examined that a 2oC temperature rise and a
7 per cent increase in rainfall would lead to almost about 8.4 per cent loss in farming
level net revenue. The climate change has affected the economic system of the world
(IPCC, 1996) in which some economies got positive and some got negative impact
(Magrin et al., 1999) over their economic activities. Regional variation has also
emerged as an important aspect of the climate change (Sala and Paruelo, 1994).
Adams et al. (1998) analyse the size of economic losses, the degree of vulnerability of
various economies, its measurement, causes of the problems and their probable
measures. We cannot discuss all the dimensions of climate change and its impact on
agriculture in the present study we will discuss the relationship between the
agriculture production and climate change in India.

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5.2. CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate change refers to increasing the Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emission

resulted in global warming, temperature fluctuations and variability, erratic rainfall, a
higher number of dry days leads to droughts, increased spells of heavy rainfall leads
to floods and sea-level rise. The impacts of such changes are felt especially by
vulnerable countries like India, at different degrees and depending on the natural
situation and socio-economic situation. The United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992) “a change that is attributed directly or indirectly
to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”.
According to IPCC (2007) defines as “a change in the state of the climate that can be
identified by changes in the mean and/or variability of its properties and that persists
for an extended period, typically decades or longer”. It refers to any change in climate
over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

Climate is the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area. It has been

measured by assessing the patterns of variation in rainfall, temperature, humidity,
atmospheric pressure, the wind, atmospheric perspective and other meteorological
variables in a particular region over long periods of time (Mc Michael, 2013). A
particular region’s climate is generated by the climate system which is an interactive
system consisting of five major components of the Atmosphere, Hydrosphere,
Cryosphere, Lithosphere and Biosphere (IPCC, 2007). The climate system has been
influenced by various external forcing mechanisms, one of the most important of
which is the Sun-light. There is increasing evidence that the global climate is rapidly
changing and becoming more visible day by day. These include a global rise in an
average temperature, an increased frequency of heat waves, of extreme weather events
such as hurricanes, cyclones, drought periods, plus an altered distribution of allergens
and vector-borne infectious diseases (Franchini and Mannucci, 2015).

A climate system is a complex event, interactive system consisting of the

atmosphere, land surface, snow, ice, oceans and other bodies of water and living
creatures. Basically, the atmospheric component of the climate system characterizes
of climate. The climate, often defined as an average weather is described in terms of
the variability of temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time, more

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specifically the classical period of 30 years (Le Treut et al., 2007). The climate
change is climatic trends, climatic discontinuity, climatic fluctuations, climatic
variation, climatic oscillation, climatic periodicity and climatic variability. According
to Steffen and Tyson (2001), climate refers to the aggregation of components of
weather precipitation, temperature and cloudiness. For example, the climate system
includes process involving oceans, land and sea ice in addition to the atmosphere. The
Earth system encompasses the climate system and many changes in the earth system
functioning directly involved changes in climate. However, the Earth system includes
other components and process, biophysical and human, the importance of its
functioning. The Earth system changes, natural or human-driven, can have significant
consequences without involving any change. The atmosphere and ocean have
warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished and sea level has been rising.

The Earth consists mainly Nitrogen (N2) 78.1 per cent, Oxygen (O2) 20.9 per
cent and Argon (Ar) 0.93 per cent. These gases have only limited interaction with the
incoming solar radiation and they do not interact with the Infra-red radiation emitting
from the earth. There are a number of gases such as Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane
(CH4), Nitrous Oxide (NO2), Hydro-Fluorocarbons (HFCs), Per-Fluorocarbons
(PFCs), Sulphur Hexafluoride (SF6) and Ozone (O3), which do absorb and emit
infrared radiation. These are called Greenhouse Gasses (GHGs). The GHGs absorb
the infrared radiation and raise the temperature on the Earth’s surface. The HFCs,
PFCs, SF6 (1.7 per cent), N2O (5.6 per cent), CO2 (82.7 per cent), CH4 (10.0 per cent)
and corresponding shares of the other GHGs in 2003 are: 10.0 per cent for
CH4 (12.3 per cent in 1990), 5.6 per cent for N2O (6.5 per cent in 1990) and 1.7 per
cent for the sum of HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (1.1 per cent in 1990) (UNFCCC, 2005).

5.3. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO IN INDIA

India is facing highly climate variability and facing many challenges of

climate change. The variation in India’s agricultural performance over the past half-
century is due to climate change. Moreover, increase in mean sea levels will affect
large populations, communities in the peninsular and coastal areas. Total frequency of
cyclonic storms forming over the Bay of Bengal remained almost stable during 1887-
1997. By the end of 21st century, rainfall in India may increase by 15 per cent to
40 per cent with high regional variability. Warming may be more pronounced over

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land areas with northern India experiencing maximum increase. The annual mean
temperature could increase by 3°C by 6°C over the century. India’s climate reveals
that there is an increase of 0.56 °C in the temperature for the country as a whole over
the period (1901-2000) against the globally observed increase of 0.76 °C (Singh,
2013).

Lal et al. (2001) has examined that an annual mean averaged annual surface
temperature India between 3.53oC (lowest) to 5.55oC (highest) over the region by
2080. These projections showed more warming in the winter season (December to
March) over summer monsoon (June to September). Rise in surface temperature in
north India is predicted 3oC or more by 2050. A marginal increase of 7 per cent to
10 per cent in rainfall is predicted in India by 2080, during the winter (Rabi), the area-
averaged surface temperature increases over India by 2080 would be at least 4oC,
while during monsoon (Rabi) and it may range between 3.5oC to 5.5oC. Further, the
study revealed a fall in rainfall by 5 per cent to 25 per cent in winter months and an
increase of 10 per cent to 15 per cent in summer monsoon rainfall in India. These
projected changes will have both beneficial and adverse effects on agriculture,
horticulture, environment and socio-economic setup. Table 5.1 shows the temperature
and rainfall change is annually both in Rabi and Kharif season. It can be seen that
lowest rainfall as -24.83 per cent in Rabi 2080s and highest in Kharif up to 10.10 per
cent, while as the highest rainfall change in Kharif 2080s, lowest as 15 per cent to
18 per cent. Showing the temperature lowest 1.08°C in the Rabi 2020s and change in
Rabi 2080s as 6.31°C.

Table 5.1: Climate change projections for India

Year Season Temperature change (°C) Rainfall Change (%)

Lowest Highest Lowest Highest
2020s Annual 1.00 1.41 2.16 5.97
Rabi 1.08 1.54 -1.95 4.36
Kharif 0.87 1.17 1.81 5.10
2050s Annual 2.23 2.87 5.36 9.34
Rabi 2.54 3.18 -9.22 3.82
Kharif 1.81 2.37 7.18 10.52
2080s Annual 3.53 5.55 7.48 9.90
Rabi 4.14 6.31 -24.83 -4.50
Kharif 2.91 4.62 10.10 15.18
Note: Rabi indicates- Winter Crops and Kharif indicate- Summer Crops.
Source: Singh, 2012.

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5.3.1. Trends of Temperature
Climate change has accompanied by higher average temperatures near the
earth’s surface area, changed rainfall patterns and increased the frequency of
floods, droughts and cyclones, which can severely impact on the livelihoods and food
security in the country. The change in climate could lead to impacts on the availability
of drinking water, oceanic acidification, food production, flooding of coastal areas
and increased burden of vector-borne and water-borne disease associated with
extreme weather events, etc. The estimates that the global mean surface temperature
has increased 0.6°C±0.2°C since 1861 and predicts an increase of 2°C to 4°C over the
next 100 years (IPCC, 2007). The surface air temperatures over the country showed a
warming trend, which is similar to the warming of global surface air temperatures.

Figure 5.1: Trends Temperature in all India since 1901 to 2001 (in Annual mean
Anomalies)

Source: Rajeevan (2013).

Figure 5.1 shows the time series of the annual average of surface mean
temperature over the country from 1901-2001. The annual average surface
temperatures have increased over the years with a trend of 0.56 oC per 100 years
which is close to the global warming trend. There is a substantial increase in surface
temperatures since the mid-1970s. The trends of temperature are increasing since the

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1990s continuously in all India and highest temperature in 2001, the annual mean
temperature increases about 1 oC. Further, surface temperature warming is noted over
most of the country except over a few pockets over north-west India. The night-time
temperatures have increased sharply during the recent years, highlighting the role of
greenhouse gases. These warming trends of surface temperature have an impact on
agriculture production in India (Rajeevan, 2013).

The Global temperature has increasingly affected the hydrologic cycle by

directly increasing evaporation of available surface water and vegetation transpiration.
Consequently, these changes can influence precipitation amounts, timings and
intensity rates and indirectly impact the flux and storage of water in surface and sub-
surface reservoirs (i.e., lakes, soil moisture and ground-water), it leads to declining
area of agricultural land and the problem of the food crisis. According to the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007), the middle of the 20th century there is more
than 90 per cent probability that global warming is due to man-made greenhouse
gases (GHGs). The average global temperature is expected to rise by between 1.1°C
and 2.9°C in the IPCC’s lowest emissions scenario and 2.4°C and 6.4°C for the
highest scenario between 2090 and 2100 compared to 1980-1999.

5.2.2. Trends of Rainfall

The south-west monsoon is highly influenced by agriculture production, the

Indian economy and consequently, the livelihoods of a vast majority of the rural
population in the country. A majority of the cropped area in India (about 68 per cent)
falls within the medium and low rainfall ranges regions. Large areas are therefore
affected if the south-west monsoon plays truant. Most parts of the country, especially
in the central and north-west regions, are most prone to drought. The drought years of
1965-66 and 1979-80 affected relatively high rainfall regions, while the drought of
1972, 1987, 2002, 2004 and 2009 affected low-rainfall regions, mostly semi-arid and
sub-humid regions. Table-5.2 showed that the period from 1950-2012 witnessed
drought years like 1965-66, 1966-67, 1968-69, 1972-73, 1974-75, 1979-80, 1982-83,
1986-87, 1987-88, 2002-03, 2004-05 and 2009-10 in India. The long period average
rainfall (LPA) is the highest deviation during the 2000s about -5.18 per cent (Gulati et
al., 2013).

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 A fall of 15 per cent or more from the LPA value meant the drought was
severe, a fall between 10 per cent and 15 per cent was categorised as a less severe
drought and an extended categorization of a fall between 5 per cent and 10 per
cent reflected as deficient rainfall. They found that out of the 22 droughts India faced
since 1901, 10 years where severe drought years, various years were less severe
droughts (10 per cent to 15 per cent below normal rainfall) (Saini and Gulati, 2014).
Their study shows that in the period (1951-2010), “the increase in summer rainfall is
spatially coherent over many states in north, north-west, east and south-east parts of
India, particularly states like Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Bihar, Orissa and West
Bengal. However, the study reveals a significant fall in the monsoon rains in Uttar
Pradesh and Tamil Nadu (Rather et. al., 2013).

Table: 5.2: Study of Rainfall Data: 1950-2012

Decade Frequency Drought Years (rainfall Average of Average of

of Deviation from LPA >10%) Deviation from deviation from
droughts LPA for drought LPA(%) for
(years) years Decade
1950s 1 1951 -13.8 2.5
1965-66, 1966-67 and 1968-
1960s 3 69 -13.9 -1.43
1972-73, 1974-75 and 1979-
1970s 3 80 -18.3 -0.03
1982-83, 1986-87 and 1987-
1980s 3 88 -15.53 -2.12
1990s 0 None - 0.51
2002-03, 2004-05 and 2009-
2000s 3 10 -18.27 -5.18
Source: Gulati et al., 2013.

5.4. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

For the sustainable development has necessarily to involve the pursuit of

economic efficiency, social equity and environmental protection. It requires policies
and projects to be designed and implemented in such a way that environmental
degradation is anticipated and minimized. History revealed that human civilization
has experienced two major cultural revolutions namely Agricultural Revolution and
the Industrial Revolution. However, the gains made from these revolutions have not

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been without environmental degradation, includes massive amounts of air and water
pollution, forest loss and other destruction. India has also achieved significant
progress in the fields of both. But the adoption of modern technologies has culminated
in serious problems of crop losses, health hazards and overall environmental
degradation. Land degradation and loss of forest area are two known dimensions of
degradation (Salam, et al., 2012)

According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature

(IUCN) defined as sustainable development as following requirements: (a) The
integration of conservation and development, (b) The satisfaction of basic human
needs, (c) The achievement of equity and social justice, (d) The provision for social
self-determination and cultural diversity and (e) The maintenance of ecological
integrity. The aim of the World Conservation Strategy (WCS) is to achieve of the
Living Resource Conservation for Sustainable Development: (1) To maintain
essential ecological processes and life-supporting systems (such as soil regeneration,
protection, the recycling of nutrients and the cleaning of waters), on which human
survival and development depend, (2) To preserve genetic diversity (the range of
genetic material found in the world's organisms), on which depend the functioning of
many of the above processes and life-support systems and (3) To ensure the
sustainable utilization of species and ecosystems (notably fish and other wildlife,
forests and grazing lands), which support millions of rural communities as well as
major industries (IUCN-UNEP-WWF, 1980).

Sustainable development has been defined as follows "Development that

meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs". The World Commission on Environment and Development
(WCED) is known as the Brundtland Commission in 1987 is laid down the foundation
for a debate on the meaning of “Sustainable Development” and the role of
environment on development. The Commission defined the term "Sustainable
development ensures that the maximum rate of resource consumption and waste
discharge for a selected development portfolio would be sustained indefinitely, in a
defined planning region, without progressively impairing its bio-productivity and
ecological integrity. Environmental conservation, therefore, contrary to general belief,
accelerates rather than hinders economic development. Therefore, for sustainable
development plans have to ensure: (1) Sustainable and equitable use of natural

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resources for meeting the needs of the present and future generations without causing
damage to the environment, (2) To prevent further damage to our life-support systems
and (3) To conserve and nurture the biological diversity, gene pool and other
resources for long-term food security" (UN-WCED, 1987).

5.5. SUSTAINABILITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES

Natural Resources such as the air, water, forests, soils, minerals and fisheries
form an essential for economic development based in any country and their use
generates significant economic and social benefits for people particularly the poor.
About 70 per cent of the world’s 1.2 billion people who live below the poverty line
largely depend on the natural resources for their main source of livelihoods. With
rapid economic growth and increasing pressure on land and water resources, natural
resources are being degraded at an unprecedented rate. Coupled with the impacts of
climate change, natural resources degradation continues to have deleterious economic
and social repercussions for the poor. It has also implications for gender equality, as a
significant majority of the world’s estimated 1 billion rural women depend on natural
resources and agriculture for their livelihoods, making them more vulnerable to
negative impacts (UNDP-UNEP, 2015).

5.5.1. Land Resources

The land is certainly one of the most important natural resources in India.
Agricultural activities depend upon the land specific conditions. In terms of area,
India ranks the seventh position in the world, while in terms of population it second
Ranks. Presently, about 430 million hectares of lands are not available for cultivation.
This category includes area put to non-agricultural uses, barren and uncultivable
lands. As an economy makes progress and with it, the process of urbanisation is
accelerated, agriculture land put to non-agricultural uses increase. The challenge
relating to this land area is to maintain its soil fertility status and protect against
degradation due to soil erosion, high used chemical fertilizers and pesticides in
agriculture, water-logging, salinization and other problems (Chand, 2006).

Status of land resources of India is presented in Table-5.3. The classification of

land-use in India from 1950-51 to 2012-13 is given in Table-5.3. The land use pattern
in the country has undergone drastic changes over the last six decades (from 1950 to
2011). Out of the total geographical area of 328.73 million hectares, the land use

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statistics were available for roughly 284.32 million hectares in 1950-51, however in
2010-11; the reporting area has increased to around 305.84 million hectares. There
has been a noticeable increase in the forest area from 40.48 million hectares in 1950-
51 to 70.03 million hectares in 2010-11. The area of barren and uncultivable land,
however, decreased from 38.16 million hectares in 1950-51 to 16.78 million hectares
in 2000-01 but remained almost stable about 17 million hectares between 2000-01 and
2010-11. The area under non-agricultural use includes all lands occupied by
buildings, roads, railways or under water, e.g. rivers, canals, and the land put to other
than agricultural use.

Table 5.3: Land Use Classification in India Since 1950 to 2011

(in Million Hectares)
Classification 1950- 1960- 1970- 1980- 1990- 2000-01 2010-
51 61 71 81 91 11(P)
I. Geographical Area 328.73 328.73 328.73 328.73 328.73 328.73 328.73
II. Reporting Area for Land 284.32 298.76 303.76 304.16 304.86 305.08 305.84
Utilisation Statistics ( 1 to 5)
1. Forests 40.48 54.05 63.92 67.47 67.81 69.62 70.03
2. Not Available for 47.52 50.75 44.64 39.62 40.48 41.55 43.57
Cultivation (a+b)
(a) Non Agricultural Uses 9.36 14.84 16.48 19.66 21.09 23.81 26.40
(b) Barren and Un-culturable 38.16 35.91 28.16 19.96 19.39 17.74 17.18
Land
3. Other Uncultivated Land 49.45 37.64 35.06 32.32 30.22 27.71 26.16
excluding fallow land (a+b+c)
(a)Permanent Pastures 6.68 13.97 13.26 11.97 11.40 10.83 10.31
and Other Grazing Land
(b) Land Under 19.83 4.46 4.37 3.58 3.82 3.44 3.37
MiscellaneousTree Crops and
Groves notIncluded in Net
Area Sown
(c) Culturable Wasteland 22.94 19.21 17.50 16.74 15.00 13.56 12.65
4. Fallow Land (a+b) 28.13 22.82 19.88 24.75 23.36 25.03 24.60
(a) Fallow Land Other 17.45 11.18 8.76 9.92 9.66 10.19 10.32
Than Current Fallows
(b) Current Fallows 10.68 11.64 11.12 14.83 13.70 14.84 14.28
5. Net Area Sown (6-7) 118.75 133.20 140.27 140.00 143.00 141.16 141.56
6. Gross Cropped Area 131.89 152.77 165.79 172.63 185.74 185.70 197.56
7. Area Sown More Than 13.15 19.57 25.52 32.63 42.74 44.54 56.00
Once
8. Cropping Intensity* 111.1 114.70 118.20 123.30 129.90 131.60 139.56
III. Net Irrigated Area 20.85 24.66 31.10 38.72 48.02 54.84 63.66
IV. Gross Irrigated Area 22.56 27.98 38.20 49.78 63.20 75.82 88.89
Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2015, Directorate of Economic and Statistics, Ministry of
Agriculture.
P: Provisional, *: Cropping Intensity is obtained by dividing the gross cropped area by the net area
was sown

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 Figure 5.2 shows that the area under non-agricultural uses land fastest
increased due to increase in developmental activities, e.g. urbanisation, housing,
transport system, irrigation, etc. The area under non-agricultural uses increased from
9.36 million hectares in 1950-51 to 26.40 million hectares in 2010-11. The post-
economic reform leads to high industrial and service sector development. The effect
of economic reform more urbanisation and develop special economic zones, in 1990-
91 land use for non-agriculture is about 21 million hectares to about 26 million
hectares in 2010-11. The net sown area (gross cropped area-area sowed more than
once) increased from 118.75 million hectares in 1950-51 to 140.86 million hectares in
1970-71. Most of this expansion has taken place through diversion of forest and
grazing land to agriculture. Since 1970-71, however, the net sown area has remained
almost the same at around 141.56 million hectares from 1970-71 to 2010-11.

Figure 5.2: Agriculture Land Use in India

Not Agriculture Land 1950-51 Not Agriculture Land in 2013-14

Availabl Availabl
e for e for
Cultivati Cultivati
Others on Others
on
17% 14% 9%
17%
Net
Area Net
Sown Area
42% Sown
Forest 46%
23%
Forest
14%

Fallow Fallow
Land Land
10% 8%

Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance 2015, Directorate of Economic and Statistics, Ministry of
Agriculture.

Land resources can be managed by creating awareness among farmers about

the proper use of fertiliser and the proper way to take benefit of chemical fertilizer is
by using them along with organic fertilizer. There is a lot of wastage and diversion of
valuable animal dung. Similarly, lots of agricultural Biomass waste that can be
decomposed to produce organic fertilizer. In some parts of the country like Punjab,
Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh lakhs of tonnes of rice and wheat straw is

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disposed of by burning. This not only causes wastage of biomass but also causes lots
of air pollution in the Green Revolution area. Recently smog in Delhi Ignoring the
evidence of major sources of pollution in the country, the Green Revolution in
Punjab, Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh for food security concerns, paddy has
become a major Kharif crop.

Before combine harvesters became popular in the NCR, the harvesting of

paddy was done manually, which left hardly any straw in the field. Now that labour
has become more expensive because the MGNREGA and another rural development
programme (especially migration of labour from the eastern region: Bihar, Bengal and
Eastern Uttar Pradesh) leads to labour crisis in the agriculture sector, farmers in this
region have taken to the intensive use of harvesters. The time between the harvesting
of paddy and sowing of wheat is just about 15-20 days. Farmers, therefore, prefer to
burn the straw to save time and labour cost. About 20 million tonnes of paddy straw is
thus burnt within a fortnight. The government should encourage innovation and
educate farmers rather than taking punitive action against already stressed farmers.
Efficient and quick methods for decomposing such biomass would increase the
availability of organic matter for application in agricultural land.

5.5.2. Water Resources

Water is a renewable natural resource; it is an integral part of the sustainable

development. The role of water in livelihood and food security is a major concern in
the context of persistent poverty and continued environmental degradation in India. It
is necessary for the survival of all living beings on the earth and for the sustainability
of the people. In India with 2.4 per cent of the world’s total area has 17.5 per cent of
the world’s population but has only 4 per cent of the total available fresh water
(Central Water Commission, 2010). The demand for water is fast increasing the
population growth, the demand for water for irrigation, drinking, power generation
and industrial production.

The depletion of groundwater because highly use of fertilisers in agriculture

and industrial purpose. It is the main concern of water resources development in
the country. At present almost one-third of the total earth’s population is not able to
get sufficient water for drinking requirements. By the middle of the 21st century, two-
thirds of the world could face water scarcity. The United Nations confirms that by

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2025, about 1.8 billion people will live in water scarcity areas and two-thirds of
earth’s population will live in water-stressed regions due to overuse, increased
activities and due to climate change. Climate change and resulting rise in earth’s
temperature will lead rains becoming uncertain and water evaporation faster. People
living in the developing countries are worst suffering from the dirking water. They
have to compromise not only by way of quantity but also by way of quality. Most of
the water sources are polluted and contaminated in the country.

Rising population coupled with sustainable developmental efforts has an

increasing stress on water resources. The uneven distribution over time and space of
water resources and their adaption through human use and abuse are sources of water
crises in many parts of the world. The high pressure on water resources leading to
tensions conflicts among users and excessive pressure on the environment. These
demand the planners and policy-makers for a proper water management of natural
resources. This, in turn, calls for a reliable and adequate statistics on water and related
aspects. However, today world oceans cover about three-fourths of earth’s surface
while the fresh water constitutes a very small proportion of this enormous quantity
available on the earth. It is only about 35 million km or 2.5 per cent of the total
volume. Of these, 24 million km or 68.9 per cent is in the form of ice and permanent
snow cover in mountainous regions, the Antarctic, Arctic regions and another 29.9 per
cent is present as ground-water (shallow and deep groundwater basins up to 2,000
meters). The rest 0.3 per cent is available in lakes, rivers and 0.9 per cent in soil
moisture, marsh water and permafrost atmosphere (Central Water Commission,
2013).

The demand for water is expected to grow from 813 Billion Cubic Metres
(BCM) in 2010 to 1447 BCM by 2050. In 2010, the largest consumer of water has
irrigation which accounted for 688 BCM (about 85 per cent) of water demand,
followed by domestic use like drinking water is 56 BCM (6 per cent), industries for
12 BCM and energy for 5 BCM. The demand for water from non-irrigation sectors is
expected to increase considerably over the period 2010-50: by 2.6 times in the
domestic sector, 3.7 times in the energy sector and by 2.2 times in the industrial
sector. This clearly indicates that the need for water resource development,
conservation and optimum use. India is well-off in surface water resources. Average
annual precipitation is nearly 4000 cubic km and an average flow in the river system

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is estimated to be 1880 cubic km. The average actual water availability in India is
assessed as 1869 BCM in Table-5.4; total utilisable water resources are assessed as
1123 BCM. The total utilisable water resources are divided into surface water and
ground-water. The surface water resources in this country are assessed as 690 BCM
and the groundwater resources are assessed as 433 BCM. During the planning period,
the per capita availability of water has substantially declined (Central Water
Commission-2010).

It is a huge challenge to provide potable water to over 85 crore plus people

living in rural India. Despite the investment of massive sums since the first five-year
plan, inadequate water supply to rural areas continues to be a major national problem.
The gravity of this could be understood by the fact that about 3.7 crore people are
affected by waterborne diseases annually and 15 lakh children die due to diarrhea
alone. About 8 crore people are at risk, due to excessive fluorides and arsenic in the
groundwater, the main source of drinking water in the country. According to WHO in
2010, about 89 per cent of the world’s population, or 6.1 billion people, used
improved drinking water sources, exceeding the MDG target (88 per cent); 92 per
cent are expected to have access in 2015. In 2015 the WHO projects that 605 million
still not have access. To provide safe drinking water; Government has taken some
urgent actions, some new projects and programmes related to drinking water have
been initiated.

Table 5.4: Water Availability in India

Items Quantity
1.Annual Precipitation (including snowfall) 4000 BCM
2. Average Annual Availability 1869 BCM
(a) Per Capita Water Availability (2001) 1816 Cu.M
(b) Per Capita Water Availability (2001) 1588 Cu.M
3. Estimated Utilizable Water Resources 1123 BCM
(a) Surface Water Resources 690 BCM
4.Ground Water Resources 433 BCM
Source: Central Water Commission-2010

Drinking water is the basic requirement of our life and plays a vital role in
maintaining and promoting public health. The access of water resources in India is
deteriorating and depleting continuously, access to safe drinking water is an urgent
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need as about 70.5 per cent of the households in the urban areas and 8.7 per cent in
rural areas receive organized piped water-supply and the rest have to depend on
surface or groundwater which is untreated. According to the Census 2011, about
15 per cent people do not have access to safe drinking water in India. Access to safe
drinking water is not sufficient availability in rural areas; it was only about 73 per
cent in 2011. The access to safe drinking water widely varies across states in India.
The lowest access to safe drinking water available is 33.5 per cent in Kerala and
highest 97.6 per cent was recorded in Punjab. Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh,
Jharkhand, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal account for 61 per cent of 153.66
BCM of total available groundwater for future use. The groundwater development in
these states except Uttar Pradesh is quite low; less than 50 per cent. With the
exception of Uttar Pradesh, the states in the eastern region of the country also have
lower groundwater development than the national average. Therefore, there is
considerable scope for groundwater development in the region along with the
important qualification that high arsenic level may disqualify certain areas for it. The
abundance of surface and ground-water and less intensive use of land resources mean
that the region has considerable scope for increase in agricultural productivity and
production.

5.5.3. Forest Resources

Forest is an important natural resource provided by the nature to make the life
of a human being comfortable on earth. It extends its support to mankind in two ways:
firstly it helps a lot in maintaining the ecological and sustainability balances of the
environment and secondly it provides finished as well as raw items to our society. A
large number of industries are based on the supply of raw items from the forest and
hence their sustainability depends at large on the status of forest resources. Forest
provide several benefits through checking soil erosion, maintaining fertility,
conserving water, regulating hydro-cycles and controls floods, balancing carbon-
dioxide, maintain environmental sustainability and oxygen in the right proportion in
the atmosphere etc. The forest contributes to the process of carbon segregation and
acts as a carbon sink, which is important for reduction of greenhouse gases and global
warming. The degradation of forest resources has a detrimental effect on soil, water,
environmental degradation and climate, which in turn affects human and animal life.
This has created environmental concern for protection and preservation of forests.

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 Since 1950-51 due to increase in population and consequent upon heavy
pressure on forest land, about 47 lakh hectares of forest land has been lost to
agriculture, river valley projects, industrial estates, urbanization and other purposes.
Madhya Pradesh has the largest forest cover in the country with 77,522 sq.km forest
area, followed by Arunachal Pradesh 67,321 sq.km forest area. In terms of percentage
of forest cover with respect to total geographical area, Mizoram with 90.38 per
cent area leads the state, followed by Lakshadweep with 84.56 per cent. As per
current assessment, the total forest cover of the country is 697898 sq.km, which works
out to 21.23 per cent of the geographical area of the country. In terms of density
classes, the area covered by very dense forest is 83502 sq.km (2.54 per cent) that with
the modest dense forest is 3,18,745 sq.km (9.70 per cent) and the open forest is
2,95,651 sq.km (8.99 per cent) (India State Forest Report, 2013).

Figure 5.3: Forest Covers Area State-wise in 2015 (in %)

78.01 82.31
71.05
66.52
61.39 60.02
55.62
Percentage

44.21 42.34
37.34
33.09
29.61 29.130.72 26.76
23.26 23.26
19.96 20.01 17.59
11.04 13.38
9.1 9.57
6.87 6.88 6.12 6.88
3.53

States

Source: Ministry of Environment and Forests, Govt. of India, 2015.

Figure 5.3 revealed that the states Assam, Goa, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh,
Kerala, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Tripura and West Bengal have shown a significant
increase in forest covers whereas the states Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram,
Nagaland, and Andaman and Nicobar have shown a significant decline in the forest
covers. The National forest policy of India envisages that 33 per cent of the total
geographical area of the country should be developed into forests for avoiding any

155
climate change and ecological imbalance. On the basis of above requirement only
thirteen States/UTs, (Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar, Mizoram, Arunachal
Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Meghalaya, Tripura, Goa, Sikkim, Dadra and Nagar
Haveli Kerala and Assam) have more than 33 per cent forest cover of their total
geographical area. Out of the total geographical area of 328 million hectares existing,
forest cover is only 67.55 million hectares while the required forest and tree cover is
109 million hectares.

If we consider the tree cover outside recorded forest area, even then the total
forest cover comes to 75.70 million hectares which are only 23.07 per cent of the total
geographical area. Total afforestation required is 33.60 million hectares. This shows
that with rising human and cattle population since independence a serious threat has
been caused to ecological balance and the economy of those areas where people
mainly depend on the forest for their livelihood. Figure 5.3 shows the state wise forest
area and cover. If we compare Madhya Pradesh with Uttar Pradesh the forest area and
forest cover as a percentage of total geographical area, UP lags far behind but it also
reveals the fact that there is a scope for afforestation in the forest area as 1.27 per
cent of the geographical area needs forest cover. In West Bengal also the situation is
more or less similar where 1.33 per cent of the geographical area still needs forest
cover. This would require better land management and forest management to check
further deterioration of the situation. Massive afforestation programmes will have to
be undertaken, both by central and state government.

5.6. SUSTAINABILITY OF AGRICULTURE IN INDIA

The sustainability of agriculture development is generally concerned with the

need for agricultural practices to be efficient, feasible and more environmentally
viable. To meet human needs for future food demands to be environmentally positive
and to be concerned with the quality of life. The sustainable agriculture development
is in terms of adaptability and flexibility over time to respond to the demands for
food. The demands for natural resources for production and its ability to protect the
resources like soil, air, water, forest and other natural resources. This goal requires an
efficient use of technology in a manner helpful to maintain the sustainability of
agriculture.

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 For maintaining Sustainable Agriculture, the Government of India accords
remaining importance for improving the quality of country’s land/soil resources
through a number of programmes. The Government is inclined to promote the rational
utilization and conservation of its water resources and to offer the highest priority to
the conjunctive use of surface ground water sprinkler irrigation and drip irrigation for
water saving and high efficiency of agriculture production. According to the policy,
the use of biotechnology will be promoted for evolving plants that consume less
water, are drought resistant, pest resistant, contain more nutrition, give higher yields
and are safe in view of the environment. Balanced use of biomass, organic and
inorganic fertilizers and controlled use of other agrochemicals through integrated
nutrient and pest-management is to be promoted to achieve the sustainable increases
in agricultural production.

Sustainable agriculture can be defined as “Agriculture that is productive for

the foreseeable future, competitive and profitable, conserve natural resources, protect
the environment, and enhance public health, food quality and safety” (Prasad et al.,
2007). Sustainability of agriculture is: “The management and conservation of the
resource base and the orientation of technological and institutional changes in such a
manner as to ensure the attainment and continued satisfaction of human needs for
present and future generations. Such sustainable development is environmentally non-
degrading, technically appropriate, economically viable and socially acceptable”
(FAO, 1991). Sustainable agriculture can also be defined as a practice that meets
current and long-term needs for food fibre and other related needs of society while
maximizing benefits through conservation of resources to maintain other ecosystem
services and functions and long-term human development. For the sustainable
agriculture, the policy aims to promote technically sound, economically viable,
environmentally non–degrading and socially acceptable use of country’s natural
resources like land, water and genetic endowments (Chand, 2006).

The goal of the sustainable agriculture is to develop farming systems that are
productive and gainful, conservation of the natural resource base, protect the
environment maintain long-term. The means of achieving this is low input methods
and skilled management, which seeks to optimise the management and the use of
internal production inputs in ways that provide acceptable levels of sustainable crop
yields and livestock production and result in economically feasible returns. This

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approach emphasizes such cultural and management practices as crop-rotation and
recycling of animal manure, which are control soil erosion and nutrient losses and
which maintain or enhance soil productivity. Low input farming systems seek to
minimize the use of external production inputs such as purchased fertilizers,
pesticides wherever and whenever feasible and practicable to lower cost of
production. To avoid pollution of surface and groundwater, to reduce pesticide
residues in food, to reduce a farmers’ income overall risk and to increase in long-term
farm profitability.

India has realized the threat to its precious environment due to depletion of
natural resources and the growing pace of degradation of the environment status. The
scarcities of natural resources now threaten the sustainable agriculture productivity of
the economy and economic production and consumption activities. These activities
harm environmental quality by over-loading natural sinks with wastes and pollutants.
The environmental consequences of development tend to offset many benefits that
may be accruing to individuals and societies on account of rising incomes. There are
direct costs on the health of individuals, their longevity and on the quality of life on
account of deterioration in environmental quality. The environmental damage can also
undermine in future attainments and productivity if the factors of production are
adversely affected. Therefore, the private and social costs of the use of the natural
resources and the degradation of the environment may be taken into account for the
sustainable development in the conventional accounts (CSO, GOI, 2011).

Agriculture is one the most dominant sector in Indian Economy. The share of
agriculture sector is declining in the national income, but the majority of its workforce
about 55 per cent still depends on the agriculture and allied activities but the share of
agriculture is very small about 12 per cent of the GDP India. It has been the basic
occupation in India since the time immemorial and has been carried out on
maintaining the sustainability of agriculture production and productivity. It is an only
relatively recent phenomenon that large-scale forest areas, grazing lands and waste
lands have been converted into agricultural lands to support the rising population very
fast, which has caused ecological imbalance and atmospheric pollution. With no
further scope for expansion of agricultural land, efforts have been made to enhance
the production of foodgrains using a High-Yielding Variety of Seeds (HYVs),
fertilizers and irrigation along with advanced farm equipment.

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 The States of Punjab, Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh could make use of
the Green Revolution technologies like high-yielding varieties of rice and wheat, use
of synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation facilities and made enormous progress in
food production. Currently, agro ecosystems are facing the problems of over-
exploitation of natural resources, the decline in soil fertility, ground-water level and
agricultural productivity. Hence, ensuring sustainable food security is the need of the
hour (Shetty et al., 2013). The partial success of the Green Revolution has been a
mixed bag in that it has given rise to new set of problems: overuse of water,
chemical pesticides and fertilizers. Excessive use of water results in waterlogging and
salinization whereas an excess of fertilizers and pesticide cause pollution of water
bodies and contamination of ground-water. India has the largest area of irrigated land
61.71 million hectares, of which about one-third land is already degraded and 7
million hectares has been abandoned. In such a situation a renewable and lasting
alternative, sustainable agriculture, has to emerge for successful agricultural
revolution.

The sustainability of agricultural production can be defined as the pursuance

of the level of agricultural production necessary to meet the present food demand
without compromising on the similar demands of the future generations. The concept
of ‘sustainable development’ increasingly being integrated into the policies and
programmes formulated for economic development across the country. Sustainable
agriculture growth rate is important to check the hunger and poverty in the vulnerable
population of the country as for a change in one per cent growth in agriculture sector
there would be a 2 per cent to 3 per cent reduction in poverty. India’s
population has expected to reach 1.5 billion by 2025, making a food security most
important social issue and food production will have to increase considerably, to meet
needs of growing population.

5.7. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON INDIAN AGRICULTURE

The changing in natural phenomenon may culminate as an adverse impact on

the agriculture production in India. Indian agriculture is highly sensitive to climate
variability and weather extremes, such as droughts, floods and several other climatic
storms. Raising the sea level due to climate change would force communities in low-
lying coastal areas and river deltas to move to higher ground levels. Climate change is

159
expected to lead some irreversible impact on biodiversity. The climate change as
realized through trends of temperature increase and rise in the concentration of
greenhouse gases, these changes will have affected agriculture performance.

The climate change effects on Indian agriculture production were following

factors: (a) Impact of enhanced CO2 fertilization on crop growth, impact on soil
fertility and erosion, (b) Impact on availability of water resources and rise in sea-
level, (c) Impact on ecological and indirect climate variability and higher temperature
variation, (d) Impact on food security in India; (e) Impact on living human beings
adaptability, (f) Impact on livestock productivity and (g) Impact on vernalisation in
temperate crops like rice, wheat and pulses etc. The impacts of climate change
increase greenhouse gases concentration; increase in temperature and variable
distribution of rainfall shows a mixed projection of yields of various crops different
part of the country. While high CO2 can result in growth and increase in plant
biomass, high temperature resulting from increased emission can diminish the crop
yields. The studies indicate that increased temperature can substantially reduce yields
of cereals apart from affecting their quality. The secondary impact of changed pest
and disease scenario can further complicate the crop yield situation (Palkhiwala,
2010).

5.8. IMPACT OF MONSOON VARIABILITY ON AGRICULTURE

PERFORMANCE

The Indian south-west monsoon has to start from June to September is

dominated by the South-West Monsoon that sweeps across the country in the first
week of June, first hitting the Southern part of Kerala. The South-West Monsoon is
generally expected to begin in early June and continues end of until the September.
About 50 per cent to 60 per cent of the rain received by Tamil Nadu is from the North
East Monsoon. Indian climatic conditions are greatly affected by the phenomena
of South-West Monsoon. Indian agriculture sector mainly depends on south-west
monsoons rainfall and delay of a few days in the arrival of the monsoons can badly
affect the Indian agriculture production. Good monsoons highly correlated with a
boosting agricultural production in the country. The Weak monsoon results in
widespread agricultural production losses and creates the problem of sustainability
agriculture; create food security problems, livelihood and obstruct overall economic

160
growth in the country. The South-West Monsoon is important as more than 70 per
cent of India’s annual rainfall is from the South West-Monsoons and supports more
than 75 per cent of the Kharif crops production in the country (Yojana, 2012).

The South-West Monsoon is crucial for India’s livelihood and food security. If
monsoons are normal the nation heaves a sigh of relief and if there is a prediction of
decreased rainfall it implies that droughts are to follow and the machinery has to be
geared up for drought preparedness. The Monsoon has also adversely affected the
lives of the people during floods caused by heavy rainfall. The excessive rainfall leads
to floods situation and water logging in agricultural land and also causes huge loss of
human life and property, including an agricultural farmer loss in a rural area and
especially small and marginalised section of the society in rural areas. A timely and
good monsoon with temporal and spatial distribution contributes to a bountiful
harvest, which also holds the key to controlling inflation of essential commodities
especially agriculture commodities.

Indian summer monsoon showing large spatial variability with regions of high
rainfall (the West Coast of the peninsula and over the north-eastern regions) are
associated with lowest variability and the regions of lowest rainfall (North-Western
parts of India) having highest variability as seen from the mean and coefficient of
variability maps of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). The South-West
Monsoon from June to September is mainly driven by two primary heat sources:
sensible heating of the Asian region land mass and condensational heating within the
troposphere over the Asian Plateau. Latent heat from moisture collected over the
southern subtropical Indian Ocean is transported across the equator and released
during precipitation over Asia and Africa. The ISMR has a unique identity due to its
large interannual variability. The erratic nature of contributes to the land-sea
temperature and pressure differences that ultimately drive summer monsoon
circulation. Although the Indian monsoon comes with a reassuring regularity, it
exhibits a wide range of variability in the spatial, temporal, intra-seasonal,
interannual, and decadal and Millennium scale (Nayak and Rajeevan, 2012).

The ISMR has directly affected the agriculture production, water resources,
transportation, health, power and the livelihood of rural people in the country. The
droughts and floods are two extremes of the interannual variability of the ISMR. The

161
interannual variation of seasonal monsoon rainfall over India during June to
September during 1875-2011 in the period from 1875 to 2011 witnessed many
deficient and excess monsoon years. The deficient or excess years are identified based
on the rainfall departure of ±1 Standard Deviation (SD) (≈10 per cent). The ISMR
during this period 18 per cent deficient and 14 per cent excess rainfall in the country.
It is showing that in Figure-5.4 more years’ drought situation in the country. ISMR
has a stranglehold on agriculture, the Indian economy and consequently, the
livelihoods of a vast majority of the rural populace in the country (Tyagi and Pattanaik,
2012).

Figure 5.4 from 1960 onwards, it is well known that monsoon variability has a
large impact on the agricultural production and hence the economy in India. The
frequent drought situation in the country during 1899 to 1920, in this period out of 21
years, 7 years droughts; during 1965-87 out of 28 years, 10 years droughts in the
country. The minimum droughts from 1878 to 1898, there is no drought in the
country. The drought of 1965-67 and 1979-80 affected relatively high rainfall regions,
while the droughts of 1972, 1987, 2002, 2004 and 2009 affected low-rainfall regions,
mostly semi-arid and sub-humid regions. Drought poses many problems. Irrigation
facilities available in the country are limited and therefore, when drought occurs, they
cause complete crop failure and a shortage of food in the country. If failures occur in
consecutive years, constitute a major weather system affecting large rural population
especially small and marginal farmers. Short range, medium range, extended range
and long-range forecasts are essential for various weather sensitive activities such as
farming operations, flood forecasting, water resource management, sports, transport
etc. The fluctuation in monsoon rainfall in different time scale is influenced by
occurrence and movements of different weather systems during the season (Tyagi and
Pattanaik, 2012).

The south-west monsoon rainfall season of June to September (JJAS) for the
country as a whole is within 10 per cent of its long period average (LPA), it is
categorised as a normal monsoon but when the monsoon rainfall deficiency exceeds
10 per cent and affects more than 20 per cent of the country’s area, it is categorised as
an all-India drought year. The LPA is the average or normal rainfall value calculated
for all-India or for smaller areas based on an average of actual rainfall received
between 1951 and 2000; all-India LPA for monsoon rains is 886.9 mm or say 89 cm

162
(IMD, 2014). The period 1901 to 2013, India faced 22 drought years: the worst was in
1918 when rainfall was 25 per cent below LPA; second worst in 1972 with rainfall
deficiency of 23.9 per cent; and third worst was in 2009 when rainfall dipped 22 per
cent below LPA. An analysis of 113 years of rainfall data does not suggest any
systematic pattern in the occurrence of droughts. There were two decades in the first
half of the 20th century without any drought (1921-30 and 1931-40), but there was
only one during 1991-2000, and three during 2001-2010. However, on an average,
since 1901, droughts occurred, every five years and one month. This period reduces to
four years and seven months when the data for the last 13 years (since 2001) is used,
perhaps indicating an increased frequency of droughts. It is important to understand
the intensities of different droughts faced by the country.

Figure 5.4: The Mean Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) departure
during 1876 to 2010 (in %)

Source: Gadgil (2013).

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall has remained remarkably stable

throughout the past 140 years for which data are available. During this period, the
ISMR has varied between 70 per cent and 120 per cent of the long-term average of

163
about 85 cm with a standard deviation of only about 10 per cent of the mean.
Monsoon seasons with the ISMR less than 90 per cent of the average are considered
to be droughts, whereas those with rainfall more than of 110 per cent are considered
as excess rainfall seasons. Although the variation of the ISMR anomaly (defined as
the difference between the ISMR for any year and the average ISMR) is not large
since 1950 onwards, it is well known that monsoon variability has a large impact on
the agricultural production and hence the economy in India (Saini and Gulati, 2014).

The relationship between climate change and sustainable agriculture

production pertaining to disastrous event such as floods and droughts which are
projected to multiply as a consequences of climate change leading to huge amount of
crop loss and leaving large part arable land unfit for cultivation and hence threatening
for Food Security in the country (Chaudhary and Aggarwal, 2007). The country’s
foodgrains production during 2002-03 had slumped to 174.19 Million tonnes, due to
widespread drought, from the record level of 212.02 Million tonnes in 2001-02.
Kumar and Ashrit (2001) have projected 13 per cent increase in monsoon or Kharif
season rainfall in India a reduction in Kharif rainfall by 6 per cent in the greenhouse
gas simulation. Saini and Nanda (1986) their findings there was a decline of 600-650
gram/square in a wheat crop with every 1 oC increase in mean temperatures above
17oC to 17.7 oC during the terminal spikelet initiation to antithesis. Food security is the
outcome of food production system processes. Climate change will affect food
security through its impacts on foodgrains production, which is projected to affect all
four dimensions of food security, namely food availability; stability of food supplies;
access to food and; food utilisation (Ranuzzi and Srivastava, 2012).

Climate change is directly related to agriculture production. The main climatic

parameters such as temperature and rainfall which govern crops growth will have a
direct impact on the food production. Further, Climate change and food are also
related because climate change can directly affect a country’s ability to feed its
people. This means that countries already struggling with food security are likely to
struggle still harder in the future. Sustaining supply of food itself is emerging as a
critical issue. Growth in foodgrains production is slow, rather decreasing over the last
few decades. During 1996-2008 it increased by just 1.2 per cent per annum: from 199
to 230 million tonnes, as against an annual rate of growth of 3.5 per cent achieved
during the 1980s. On top of it, the poor lack purchasing power. This led to an artificial

164
surplus in foodgrains stock and enabled the government to export an average of about
seven million tonnes foodgrains annually during 2002-08. The net foodgrains
availability has declined from 510 gram/day per capita in 1991 to 443 gram/day per
capita in 2007. India has seen an increase of 0.4 oC, in the mean surface air
temperature over the past century (1901–2000). Change in mean temperature and
precipitation will require a change in cropping patterns. It has been estimated that a
2.0oC to 3.5 oC increase in temperature, and the associated increase in precipitation,
can lower agricultural GDP by 9 per cent to 28 per cent. Yields of most crops will fall
in the long run (UNDP, 2009).

The agricultural sector is a driving force in the greenhouse gas emissions and
land use effects that cause climate change. In addition being a significant user of land
and consumer of fossil fuel, agriculture contributes directly to greenhouse gas
emissions through practices such as rice production and the raising of livestock (FAO,
2007). According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the three main
causes of the increase in greenhouse gases observed over the past 250 years have been
fossil fuels, land use, and agriculture (IPCC, 2001). The projected climate change
under various scenarios is likely to have implications on food production,
water supply, biodiversity and livelihoods. Estimations predict that the area under
foodgrains, for instance, fell from 126.18 million hectares to 122.23 million
hectares during the period from 1975–76 to 2008–09, the production registered an
increase from 121.03 million tonnes to 234.47 million tonnes during that period. The
study also indicates that there is a large-scale fluctuation in the area under the
cultivation in the Kharif season. The area under cultivation in the Kharif season
has increased from 78.21 million hectares in 1966-67 to a maximum of 84.14 million
hectares in 1983–84 with some minor fluctuations. But after that with the fluctuation
in rainfall and changes in the temperature pattern, there has been a continuous fall in
the area under cultivation.

5.8.1. Impacts of Rainfall on Agriculture Performance

The summer monsoon (June to September) contributes to 78 per cent of

India’s annual rainfall and is a major water resource. It is important to recognize that
the Green Revolution was largely confined to the irrigated areas. In the past 50 years,
there have been around 15 major droughts, due to which the productivity of rain-fed

165
crops in those years was affected. Limited options for other income and widespread
poverty continue to threaten the livelihoods of millions of small and marginal farmers
in this region (Kim, 2010).

Figure 5.5: Rainfall Trends of South West Monsoon from JJAS (June, July,
August and September) in India from 1965 to 2014 in Millimetre (MM)

1100 1049.6
1050
1000
932.4
950 910.8
882.6
900
850
800
750 708.5 694.8 700.8
674.3
700
650
600
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Source: IMD, 2015.

Severe drought conditions in the country 1965-66, 1966-67, 1972-73, 1973-

74, 1974-75, 1979-80, 1987-88, 2002-03, 2014-15 and 2015-16. The droughts and
floods have a direct impact on foodgrains production in the country. In India serious
drought in 1965-66, low rainfall leads to low agriculture production its will creates a
food crisis in the country. After a drought in 1965, the government brings the Green
Revolution in the in some states like Punjab, Haryana and western part of Uttar
Pradesh. The Green Revolution brings in surplus foodgrains production in the
country. Similarly the year 2002-03 was a draught example to show how Indian
foodgrains production depends on monsoon rainfall of and it was declared as the all-
India serious drought, as the rainfall deficiency was 19 per cent against the long
period average of the country and 29 per cent of the area was affected due to drought.
The Kharif crops production was adversely affected by a whopping fall of 19.1 per
cent (Prasada Rao, 2008).

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Figure 5.6: Impact of Droughts and Floods on Foodgrains Production in India
(in Million Tonnes)

300
production
200
100
0

year
Source: Economic Survey, 2015-16, GOI.

5.8.2. Impact of Rainfall on Agricultural Growth Rate

The farm sector achieved 3.6 per cent growth during the 11th Five Year Plan
(2007-12) which was much higher than the growth of 2.5 per cent and 2.4 per
cent during 9th and 10th Plans respectively. Foodgrains production in India has shown
remarkable improvement in recent years. The production of foodgrains in 2011-12
was at a record high of 259.32 million tonnes. The share of agriculture and allied
sector declined from 23.2 per cent of GDP in 1999-2000 to 16.8 per cent in 2007-08
and to 13.9 per cent in 2012-13 (Economic Survey, 2013-14). This may have helped
to build an increased resilience to droughts as in 2002-03, a year of severe drought,
agricultural growth rate turned negative at (-8.14 per cent) but in the year 2009-10, the
worst drought year since 1972; agriculture recorded a negative growth rate of (-0.21
per cent). India’s agriculture growth rate has been unstable, from 0.9 per cent in 2012-
13 to 5.34 per cent in 2013-14. The agriculture growth rate has declined to -0.2 per
cent in 2014-15 to 0.7 per cent in 2015-16 respectively drought situation in 2013-14
and 2014-15.

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Figure 5.7: Impact of Rainfall on Agricultural Growth Rate since 1965–2014
(in %)

20
17.07 16.85
15 14.44
10 9.54
5
0 -0.27
1965-66
1967-68
1969-70
1971-72
1973-74
1975-76
1977-78
1979-80
1981-82
1983-84
1985-86
1987-88
1989-90
1991-92
1993-94
1995-96
1997-98
1999-00
2001-02
2003-04
2005-06
2007-08
2009-10
2011-12
2013-14
-5
-8.14
-10
-13.47 -13.36
-15

Agriculture Growth Rate Linear (Agriculture Growth Rate)

Source: Data-book Compiled for use of Planning Commission, GOI, 2014

Figure 5.8: Impact of South West Monsoon Rainfall (mm) on Rice Yield (kg/ha).

Rainfall(J TO S)in MM Yield of Rice(kg/ha)

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1992…
1993…
1994…
1995…
1996…
1997…
1998…
1999…
2000…
2001…
2002…
2003…
2004…
2005…
2006…
2007…
2008…
2009…
2010…
2011…
2012…
2013…

Note: Rainfall June to September, the data are taken from IMD and Rice Yield took from Handbook of
RBI, 2015
Source: RBI and IMD.

5.8.3. Impacts of Temperature on Agriculture Performance

Climate change and agriculture are inter-related. Agriculture contributes, to

the global warming by discharge greenhouse gas and in turn, gets affected by its
consequences. However, greenhouse gas emissions from different farm sectors and
the effect of global warming on these sectors have not been quantified, except in few
cases, such as wheat. The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has
estimated that annual wheat output may decline by four to five million tonnes with
every 1°C rise in temperature. The impact of climate change will have to be mitigated

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by modifying farming practices by farmers. It has to find ways to feed the world while
being environmental, socially and economically sustainable. Yet, it is increasingly
clear that the path that agriculture has been on is not sustainable nor can it feed the
world without destroying the planet (IAASTD, 2008). The Indian Agricultural
Research Institute (IARI) indicates that the possibility of loss 4 to 5 million tonnes in
wheat production for every 1°C rise in temperature throughout the growing period.
Losses for other crops are uncertain but are expected to be smaller for
the Kharif crops. Agriculture sector contributes 18 per cent of the total GHG
emissions from India. The emissions are primarily due to methane from the paddies
crop, enteric fermentation in ruminant animals and NO2 from the application of
manures, pesticides and fertilisers. Although the relative proportion of emissions from
agriculture in India is likely to show a considerable reduction in future because of the
larger emission growth in other sectors, adaptation for agricultural communities will
remain a major concern (12 th plan, GOI).

Climate change has significant negative impacts on agricultural production in

India. According to Sinha and Swaminathan (1991), an increase of 2 oC temperature
could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 tonnes/ha in the high-yielding areas and a
0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield about 0.45 tonnes/
hectare. Significant declines in agricultural production will adversely affect food
security in India and grave climatic conditions will cause heavy economic and human
losses in the country. The decline in production due to climate change is projected to
lead to large increases in food prices, at levels close to those seen during the 2008
food price crisis and create food crisis of situation in the poor and marginalised
sections of the society. While these predictions have been shown across a number of
models, specific effects will differ by sub-region. The effects of multiple stresses,
such as extreme weather events, pests and diseases, have not been adequately
considered. For a temperature rise of 2.0 oC to 3.5 oC, have estimated that even after
accounting for farm-level adaptation, the loss in farm-level net revenue would range
from 9 per cent to 25 per cent (Kumar and Parikh, 1998). The Fourth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) reported that
global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.7°C in the past century.
Global mean temperature has increased by 0.74 oC between 1906 and 2005. Global sea

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level has risen at the average rate of 1.8 mm/year during 1961-2003; the rate has been
faster at 1993-2003 per 3.1 mm per year (Kochher and Prasad, 2009).

Climate change projections for India for the 2050s suggested that an increase
in temperature by 2°C to 4°C for the region south of 25 oN and by more than 4°C for
the northern region. While there is likely to be little change in an average amount of
monsoon rainfall, the number of rainfall days to decrease over a major part of the
country. The expected changes in climate, especially rainfall, are also marked by
significant regional variation, with the western and central parts witnessing a greater
decrease in rainfall days compared to the other parts of the country. Climatologists
have projected to an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme events such as
droughts, floods and cyclones (NATCOM, 2004). The decrease in yield of crops as
temperature increases in different parts of the country. For example, a 2°C increase in
mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 tonnes per ha in the
high yield areas and by about 0.06 tonnes/ hectare in the low yield coastal regions.

Climate change leads to an increase of temperature from 1°C to 4°C can

reduce grain yield of rice by 0 to 49 per cent, potato by 5 per cent to 40 per cent,
green gram by 13 per cent to 30 per cent and soyabean by 11 per cent to 36 per cent.
The major impacts of climate change will be on rain-fed crops (other than rice and
wheat), which account for nearly 60 per cent of cropland area. In India, poorest
farmers practice rain-fed agriculture. The loss in farm-level net revenue will range
between 9 per cent and 25 per cent for a temperature rise of 2°C to 3.5oC
(Chattopadhyay, 2010). For every one degree rise in temperature, the decline in rice
yield would be about 6 per cent (Saseendran et al., 2000). Aggarwal and Sinha (1993)
have used of WTGROWS model showed that a 2oC temperature rise would decrease
wheat yields in most places. Attri and Rathore (2003) used CERES-wheat dynamic
simulation model and climate change scenarios projected by the middle of the current
century. They found an increase in wheat yield from 29 per cent to 37 per cent and
16 per cent to 28 per cent under rain-fed and irrigated conditions especially in
different genotypes under a modified climate. An increase in temperature by 3oC
or more shall cancel out the positive effects of CO2.

Temperature and its associated seasonal patterns are critical components of

agricultural production systems. Rising temperatures associated with climate change

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will likely have a detrimental impact on crop production, livestock, fishery and allied
sectors. It is predicted that for every 2°C (which has been predicted by 2030) rise in
temperature, the GDP will reduce by 5 per cent. Accelerated warming has already
been observed in the recent period 1971-2007, mainly due to intense warming in the
recent decade 1998-2007. This warming is mainly contributed by the winter and post-
monsoon seasons, which have increased by 0.80°C and 0.82°C in the last hundred
years, respectively. The pre-monsoon and temperatures also indicate a warming trend.
Climate change will affect different parts of in different ways. These differences are
illustrated by the fact that, while large areas in Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat,
Orissa and Uttar Pradesh are frequented by drought, approximately 40 million
hectares of land in the north and north-eastern belt is flood-prone. India may also be
exposed to a greater number of floods due to the intensification of the Indian
monsoon. The mean temperature rise 2oC rise and 7 per cent increase in mean
precipitation suggested that net revenues would reduce by 12.3 per cent for the
country (Sanghi et al., 1998).

Indian climate is too warm; therefore crop diseases for major cereals (rice and
wheat) could become more widespread. Model output based on future climate change
scenario in India (Kalra et al., 2003) showed that wheat yield will be reduced by 0.45
tonnes/hectare by 0.5oC rise in winter temperature. Several crops will be affected in
India due to climatic changes. According to (Lal, 2007), at the end of the 20th century,
4 per cent to 10 per cent net cereal production in South Asian countries is projected to
decline. With temperature rise of 0.5 oC to 1.5 oC in India 2 per cent to 5 per cent yield
reduction for wheat and maize was also projected by (Aggarwal, 2003).

The IPCC report and a few other global studies indicate a probability of 10 per
cent to 40 per cent loss in crop production in India with increases in temperature by
2080-2100. The most climate-sensitive sectors like forests, agriculture, coastal zones
and the natural resources groundwater, soil, biodiversity, etc. are already under stress
due to socio-economic pressures. Climate change has aggravated the degradation of
natural resources and socio-economic pressures. In India with a large population
dependent on climate-sensitive sectors and low adaptive capacity have to develop and
implement adaptation strategies (Sathaye et al., 2006). The rising temperatures, CO2
and uncertainties in rainfall associated with global warming may or may not have
serious direct and indirect consequences on crop production, it is important to have an

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assessment of the direct and indirect consequences of global warming on different
crops especially on cereals contributing to the food security (Gadgil et al., 1995). The
deficit in rainfall can reduce irrigation water supplies, leading to reduce areas under
irrigated crops and potentially increased areas under rain-fed crops in subsequent
season (Kumar et al., 2004).

The increase in temperature causes distress to dairy animals affecting milk

production. Studies indicated that India loses 1.8 million tonnes of milk production
due to climatic stresses (Padder, 2013). The higher temperature in North India will
have a significant impact on the wheat field. The higher temperature will reduce the
full grain formation by inducing early flowering. A temperature increase of 0.5 oC will
reduce wheat yields by about 10 per cent if rainfall does not increase simultaneously.
The production of wheat loss of 4 million tonnes to 5 million tonnes for every 1oC rise
and a loss of wheat by 10 per cent to 15 per cent for every 2oC rise in temperature can
be expected. The impact of high temperature and CO2 concentrations reveals that high
CO2 concentrations favour production while high temperatures are associated with
yield reduction. Aggregating the impacts of increased temperature and CO2
concentration, it was observed that the negative impacts on yield because of
temperature rise are likely to be compensated by increasing CO2 concentrations
(Srivastava et al., 2009). Higher rainfall associated with the climate change might
improve the crop suitability, the expected higher temperatures might bring down the
crop yields and the combined effect could still be negative. Water availability will
increase as a result of climate change at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas
and decrease over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics (IPCC,
2007). Some Regions that are already drought-prone may suffer more severe dry
periods. Presently, for crop and land pasture 40 per cent of the earth’s land surface is
managed (Foley et. al., 2005).

5.9. SUMMARY

Among all sectors, Indian agriculture is termed as most sensitive to the climate
change. The production of agricultural commodities is primarily determined by the
climatic situation. A change in climate is expected to bring changes in almost all
spheres of agricultural practices. This adversely affects the future productivity of
natural resources and has serious implications for sustainable development.

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 Sustainable agricultural development and food security will be one of the key
challenges for India in this century. Around 69 per cent of India’s population is living
in rural area with agriculture as their livelihood support system. The vast majority of
Indian farmers are small and marginal. Their farm size is decreasing further due to
population growth. And the quality of the land is deteriorating due to heightened
nutrient mining, soil erosion, increasing water scarcity, adverse impacts of climate
change and accumulation of toxic elements in soil and water. Land degradation, like
climate change, is an anthropogenic induced process and poses the biggest threat to
sustainable livelihood security of the farming communities across the country. All of
these factors combined with the increased rate of land degradation are contributing
towards a decline in agricultural productivity leading to food insecurity. Since land
resources are finite, requisite measures are required to reclaim degraded and
wastelands, so that areas going out of cultivation due to social and economic reasons
are replenished by reclaiming these lands and by arresting the further loss of
production potential.

Sustainable agriculture development is affected by persistent land degradation,

land fragmentation, labour problem and over-exploitation of natural resources. The
government should need to focus mainly on the sustainable production systems by
strengthening the ecological foundations. This requires a holistic approach by
considering technological, biophysical, socio-economic, political and environmental
factors. Sustainability of agriculture can be attained by improved land and water
management, adopting eco-friendly technologies and initiating good agricultural
practices in different agro ecosystems. Further, strategic research and technology in
agriculture and adoption of sustainable practices are necessary to meet current and
future threats to food security in India.

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