Bulan t Y(t)=(d) Y’(t)=(d') (d-d') [d-d'] (d-d')² (d-d')²/n

Jan 1 65 0 0 0 0
Feb 2 82 65 17 17 289 22.23077
Mar 3 103 70 33 33 1082 83.26231
Apr 4 129 80 49 49 2404 184.9185
May 5 162 95 67 67 4532 348.6244
Jun 6 203 115 88 88 7766 597.3818
Jul 7 254 141 113 113 12698 976.8019
Aug 8 318 175 143 143 20415 1570.385
Sep 9 398 218 180 180 32406 2492.772
Oct 10 498 272 226 226 51081 3929.331
Nov 11 623 340 283 283 80207 6169.761
Dec 12 779 425 354 354 125490 9653.081
Jan 13 974 531 443 443 196224 15094.17
Σ 91 4588 2526.6 1996 1996 534595.3757 41123

α= 0.3
MAPE = 3.626124

MAD = 166.3666

MSE = 44549.61