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10/13/2010 Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy

Policy Studies Commons

Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy

Manuscript Title

Estimating and Mapping the Direct Flood Fatality Rate for Flooding in Greater New
Orleans Due To Hurricane Katrina

Authors

Ezra C. Boyd, Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College 1

Abstract

The unprecedented tragedy of Hurricane Katrina produced unprecedented data for studying the
impacts of natural disasters. The current paper looks at one public health outcome of this event: direct
flood deaths in Orleans and St. Bernard parishes of Louisiana. In particular, the risk of death for the
flood-exposed population is estimated, mapped, and discussed. Of the nearly 1,500 deaths that
Louisiana officially counts as Katrina deaths, approximately 600 are determined to be associated with
exposure to floodwaters. Additionally, it is estimated that approximately 63,000 persons were exposed to
floodwaters. The ratio of flood deaths to flood-exposed population, termed the flood fatality rate,
provides an empirical measure of flood risk. Georeferenced datasets on both the flood deaths and the
flood-exposed population are developed, and then used to estimate and map the flood fatality rate. For
the overall event, the flood fatality rate is estimated to be 7 11 deaths per 1,000 persons exposed,
which is consistent with other coastal flood disasters. At the blockgroup level, the highest values of the
flood fatality rate are observed in the Lower Ninth Ward, while comparatively lower values are observed
in New Orleans East. A preliminary univariate regression model with water depth as the independent
variable is presented, and applied to Hurricane Gustav, which impacted the region in August 2008.

Recommended Citation

Boyd, Ezra C. (2010) "Estimating and Mapping the Direct Flood Fatality Rate for Flooding in Greater
New Orleans Due To Hurricane Katrina," Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy: Vol. 1: Iss. 3, Article 6.
DOI: 10.2202/1944-4079.1017
Available at: http://www.psocommons.org/rhcpp/vol1/iss3/art6

Links
1. http://www.psocommons.org/cgi/query.cgi?
field_1=lname&value_1=Boyd&field_2=fname&value_2=Ezra&advanced=1
2. http://www.psocommons.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1017&context=rhcpp
3. http://www.psocommons.org/cgi/submit.cgi?
context=rhcpp&response_to_url=http://www.psocommons.org/rhcpp/vol1/iss3/art6

psocommons.org/rhcpp/vol1/iss3/art6/ 1/1

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