Energy Consumption Scenario in The Industry Sector: Sector Extension and Analysis Related To The VLEEM Model (MScThesis Timo Marquez)

EKV/607
Energy Consumption Scenario in the Industry Sector

Sector extension and analysis related to the VLEEM Model
A.T. Márquez Arreaza
Master of Science Thesis

Division of Heat and Power Technology
2003
Department of Energy Technology

Royal Institute of Technology
Stockholm, Sweden
Proposal and approval of a
Master of Science thesis
at the Department of Energy Technology
Title: Energy Consumption Scenarios in the Industry Sector: Sector extension and
analysis related to the VLEEM Model
Author: Timo Márquez Arreaza Report nr: 607
Project: Pages: 77 Drawings: none
Supervisor at KTH: Dr. Andrew Martin Date: 2003-12-11 Appendices: 3
Overall responsible at KTH: Dr. Andrew Martin
Approved at KTH by: Signature:
Overall responsible at industry: Dr. Martin Patel

Industrial partners:
Department of Science, Technology and Society/Copernicus Institute
Utrecht University
The Netherlands
Approved by industrial partners: Signature:
Approved for distribution:

Open: X
Abstract
The industry sector accounted for a third of the world's energy consumption in 2000. While most studies
project material and energy demand for the next decade or two, few address their demand for a longer
timeframe (e.g. 2100). For the mentioned timeframe and at a world level, this report attempts to project
and analyze material production and energy use for the iron and steel and paper and pulp sectors
based on two indicators for a) level of activity (i.e. production level and structure) and b) energy
consumption. Based on a business as usual scenario and the hypothesis that the relationship between
material consumption and wealth is roughly the same across regions, world steel and paper production
is projected to increase four-fold and seven-fold respectively, compared to 2000 levels. In special
developing regions as China and South Asia are projected to increase drastically their production and
energy consumption after 2050 (e.g. China’s steel production by six-fold and paper production by
fifteen-fold between 2000-2100). Under the presented technological development the energy
projections show that efficiency is to have a considerable effect on energy consumption when compared
to frozen-efficiency scenario (i.e. an energy world potential reduction of 48% for the steel sector and
35% for the paper sector in 2050). Although such large timeframe is filled with uncertainty the results
presented provide possible insight on material consumption developments and energy demand at world
level under the aforementioned hypothesis.
Distribution list
Name/Company Copies Name/Company Copies
Ann Brånth / HPT Secretary 3
Andrew Martin / KTH 1
Utrecht University 2
Energy Consumption Scenarios in the Industry Sector:
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Definition of Problem................................................................................. 1
1.2 Overview.................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Objectives .................................................................................................. 3
2 Methodology..................................................................................................... 4
2.1 General Methodology................................................................................. 4
2.1.1 Step 1: Activity level .......................................................................... 5
2.1.2 Step 2: Specific energy use................................................................. 7
2.1.3 Step 3: Future energy use in absolute terms ........................................ 8
2.2 Computation Implementation ..................................................................... 8
2.3 Other methodologies:................................................................................. 9
3 Description of the Sectors...............................................................................11

3.1 Iron and Steel: Energy Use for Steelmaking ..............................................11
3.1.1 Overview of the iron and steel process...............................................11
3.1.2 Current Energy Use ...........................................................................14
3.2 Paper and Pulp: Energy Use for papermaking ..........................................15
3.2.1 Overview of the Paper and Pulp process ............................................15
3.2.2 Current Energy Use ...........................................................................17
4 Physical Activity Indicators............................................................................19

4.1 Iron and Steel: Production and Consumption............................................20
4.1.1 Historical data for iron and steel ........................................................20
4.1.2 Projections ........................................................................................22
4.2 Paper and Pulp Sector: Production and Consumption ..............................25
4.2.1 Historical data for paper and pulp ......................................................25
4.2.2 Projections ........................................................................................26
5 Specific Energy Indicator ...............................................................................30

5.1 Iron and Steel Sector.................................................................................31
5.1.1 Assumptions and projections .............................................................31
5.1.2 Characterization of energy technologies ............................................36
5.2 Paper and Pulp Sector ..............................................................................39
5.2.1 Assumptions and projections .............................................................39
5.2.2 Characterization of energy technologies ............................................43
6 Projections ......................................................................................................46
6.1 Demographics and Economics ..................................................................46
6.2 Iron & Steel ..............................................................................................48
6.2.1 Production.........................................................................................48
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6.2.2 Structural Changes: EAF and BOF ....................................................50

6.2.3 Energy Projections ............................................................................50
6.2.4 Effects of Efficiency and Structure ....................................................51
6.2.5 Energy use by fuel.............................................................................52
6.3 Paper & Pulp............................................................................................53
6.3.1 Production.........................................................................................53
6.3.2 Energy Projections ............................................................................55
6.3.3 Effects of Efficiency..........................................................................56
6.3.4 Energy use by fuel.............................................................................56
7 Discussion........................................................................................................58
8 Conclusions .....................................................................................................61
9 References .......................................................................................................62
10 Appendix .....................................................................................................67
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INDEX OF TABLES
Equation 1: Physical Sector factor analysis............................................................................ 4

Equation 2: Apparent consumption relation to production and trade. ...................................... 5
Table 1: Ranges of primary energy intensities of key iron and steelmaking processes
(GJ/tonne steel); compiled by Price et al. 2002. ................................................................... 14
Table 2: Ranges for primary energy intensities for papermaking. Compiled from de Jong,
1998 and de Beer, 1999. ..................................................................................................... 17
Table 3: Historical data needed to construct apparent consumption cap vs. GDP per capita
trend (level of activity) for the Iron & Steel and Paper & Pulp sectors. .................................. 19
Equation 3: Projected production as a function of the projected apparent consumption and the
ratio trade-to-apparent consumption of the year 2000. ......................................................... 20
Equation 4: Fitted curve for the apparent consumption trend, where a=634.28, b=-8585.44
and correlation coefficient = 0.7575. .................................................................................... 22
Equation 5: Fitted curve for the apparent consumption trend for paper and pulp, where
a=1.85e-04, b=1.39, c=538.18 and d=-20760. ..................................................................... 26
Table 4: EAF share development for the VLEEM regions..................................................... 34
Table 5: Literature review for specific energy consumption and potential potentials for
integrated and secondary steel production........................................................................... 34
Table 6: Available and Potential Energy Efficiency Measures; adapted from Worrell et al.,
1999.................................................................................................................................... 37
Table 7: Outcome of literature review on current and future specific energy consumption for
the paper and pulp sector .................................................................................................... 40
Table 8: Available and Potential Energy Efficiency Technology and Measures; adapted from
Martin et al., 2000................................................................................................................ 43
Table 9: Time series data needed for projections (level of activity) for the Iron & Steel and
Paper & Pulp sectors........................................................................................................... 46
Table 10: GDP growth (% p.a.) assumption for the VLEEM regions based on estimates from
IEA World Energy Outlook 2002, Energy Balance non-OECD.............................................. 47
Table 11: Production of steel between industrialized and developing regions ....................... 48
Table 12: Comparison of projected world steel production values between VLEEM and other
outlooks .............................................................................................................................. 49
Table 13: Share of fossil fuel and electricity expressed as percentages of primary energy.
Note: We assume this share to be constant for the timeframe. The share of electricity
consumption expressed in primary energy assumes a conversion efficiency of 32%. ........... 52
Table 14: Comparison of projected paper production values (Mt) for the United States
between VLEEM and other outlooks .................................................................................... 54
Table 15: Production of paper between industrialized and developing regions ..................... 54
Table 16: Share of fossil fuel and electricity expressed as percentages of primary energy for
the paper sector. ................................................................................................................. 57
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INDEX OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Per capita apparent steel consumption versus per capita income for selected
African and Asian countries. .................................................................................................. 6
Figure 2: Schematics of specific energy consumption trend for TECHNOLOGY-BASED
scenario until the year 2100 for integrated steel production. ................................................... 8
Figure 3: Methodology for projecting the total amount of energy needed. Source: VLEEM. ... 9
Figure 4: Processes for the Iron and Steel industry. Source [OECD and IEA, 2000] ............ 12
Figure 5: Schematics of the processes for the paper and pulp industry. .............................. 15
Figure 6: Apparent consumption per cap vs. GDP per cap for the representative countries
grouped under the VLEEM regions and the adjusted empirical trend.................................... 21
Figure 7: Ratio of net import over apparent consumption vs. time for industrialized regions
(upper) and developing regions (lower) for the Iron & Steel industry. Positive sign show
importing trend compared to consumption and negative sign an exporting trend. ................. 23
Figure 8: Ratio of net import over apparent consumption vs. GDP per capita for industrialized
regions (right side of graph) and developing regions (left side of graph) for the Iron & Steel
industry. Positive sign show importing trend compared to consumption and negative sign an
exporting trend. ................................................................................................................... 24
Figure 9: Apparent consumption per cap vs. GDP per cap for the VLEEM regions and the
adjusted empirical trend for the Paper & Pulp Industry ......................................................... 25
(upper) and developing regions (lower) for the Paper & Pulp industry. ................................. 27
Figure 11: Ratio of net import over apparent consumption vs. GDP per capita for
industrialized regions (right side of graph) and developing regions (left side of graph) for the
Paper & Pulp industry. Positive sign show importing trend compared to consumption and
negative sign an exporting trend. ......................................................................................... 28
Figure 12: General schematics of scrap flow into EAF and BOF routes. .............................. 32
Figure 13: Resulting specific energy consumption (GJ/t) trends for developing and
industrialized regions for integrated and secondary steel routes based on the literature values
from table 3 (also plotted). ................................................................................................... 35
Figure 14: World share of newsprint, printing and writing paper and, other and paperboard for
the past 4 decades. ............................................................................................................. 40
Figure 15: Fitted specific energy consumption trends for the three commodities for
industrialized regions, and reference values and potentials for the whole sector................... 41
developing regions, and reference values and potentials for the whole sector. ..................... 42
Figure 17: Population growth bases on the IPCC SRES B2 scenario for the different VLEEM
regions. ............................................................................................................................... 47
Figure 18: Historical and projected world steel production for the TECHNOLOGY-BASED
Scenario for the various VLEEM regions.............................................................................. 48
Figure 19: Weighted apparent consumption per capita for the different VLEEM regions. ..... 49
Figure 20: Comparing EAF development between VLEEM (left) and IPTS (right). ............... 50
Figure 21: Primary Energy Consumption for steel under the TECHNOLOGY-BASED
Scenario for the various VLEEM regions.............................................................................. 50
Figure 22: Consideration of the efficiency and structural change on world total primary energy
demand in the steel sector................................................................................................... 51
Figure 23: Energy projection of total primary energy and fuel share (PJ) for the Iron & Steel
sector for the timeframe....................................................................................................... 52
Figure 24: Historical and projected world paper production for the TECHNOLOGY-BASED
(BAU) Scenario for the various VLEEM regions. .................................................................. 53
Figure 25: Historical and projected weighted apparent consumption of paper per capita for
the different VLEEM regions. ............................................................................................... 55
Figure 26: Primary Energy Consumption for paper under the Technology-based Scenario for
the various VLEEM regions. ................................................................................................ 55
Figure 27: Efficiency influence on world total primary energy demand in the paper and pulp
sector. ................................................................................................................................. 56
Figure 28: Energy projection of total primary energy and fuel share (PJ) for the paper sector
for the timeframe. ................................................................................................................ 57
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Acknowledgement
A journey – called masters program – that started in Stockholm (Sweden) has

finally ended in Utrecht (the Netherlands). During the nine months Sustainable
Energy Engineering program in Sweden and the six months thesis project in
the Netherlands there are many people that I would like to thank in making
this ‘academic-professional evolution’ be more than that.
I want to thank my advisors at Utrecht University Dr. Martin Patel and Dirk-Jan
Treffers for providing me not only with an interesting project that has taught
me new things in the area of sustainable development and energy, but
especially for taking care of my arrival, transition and stay at a new city and
workplace. Also, great thanks to my advisor at KTH Dr. Andrew Martin for his
support and guidance in my interest of wanting to do my thesis abroad. My
immense appreciation goes to two doctoral students at Utrecht, Andrea and
Tao for their concern in how my thesis and Utrecht-adaptation were
developing.
The best possible location to work on the thesis was room B225, where I had
the incredible pleasure of meeting Milo, Tibout, Froukje, Erika, Bothwell and
Arancha (from room B229, but oh well!). They literally took the 6-people-in-
15m2-room to a whole different level. Making the room a comfortable place to
work and relax (under my musical dictatorship). I was definitely lucky to get
the finest crowd; always there for doubts, coffee breaks (krentenbollen),
‘insightful’ topics of conversation, and sharing the life (windsurfing and
partying). Still, mostly thankful for their thoughtful birthday present – wooden
shoes.
There are also people, whom although not directly involved in my thesis
project (or Utrecht time) were an important part in providing encouragement
and a balanced work-play life in this journey. First, my former colleagues at
KTH (too short space to thank and name all) by sharing from different views
the same goal (viva the bureaucratic meetings!). My flatmates and friends
Raul and Marianne for their beyond human hospitality and unconditional
support. Lastly, my international gang in Utrecht: Sana (Slovenia), Fernando
(Spain), Lorenzo (Italy), April (Indonesia), Elena (Italy) and Elsa (France)
making every event count, we are still the hardcore.
Finally, this journey would not have been possible without my home base. My
family, in special my mother, whom regardless of distance were backing-up
my every move, and my Brummelkamp girls (Tessa and Miriam), being them
the final motive I chose Utrecht as the ultimate destination.
v 11/12/2003
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Definition of Problem
Sustainable development, greenhouse gas emissions and energy

supply/demand have developed into ‘fervent’ issues in the past decades at
international and regional levels involving various actors from policymakers to
scientists. These actors have addressed their concerns through studies and
reports [Meadows et al., 1972; Brundtland, 1987; IPCC Third Assessment
Report, 2001], public awareness, policy and international agreements (earth
summits in Stockholm, Rio and Johannesburg), and presented
implementation tools such as Joint Implementation (JI), Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM) and Emission Trading (ET) among others as rectifiers to
their concerns.
The last century, seen after the industrial revolution, was marked by a strong
relation between energy and resources consumption and the improvement of
social and living conditions as seen in Europe, North America and various
Asian countries. If other regions are to achieve similar social and living
conditions, an increase in energy and resources will occur, therefore raising
more concerns about the human pressure on natural resources use and the
environment.
The industry sector was estimated to consume about 32% of the world’s total
energy consumption in 2000 [OECD, 2003]. This energy consumption, within
the sector, has been increasing yearly. Given that CO2 is the largest
contributor to GHG emissions (practically exclusively caused by energy use)
and the current industry dependency on fossil fuel, there is a wide panorama
of possible development pathways in the industry sector for the next decades.
Energy projections reflect the influence of these developments.
Due to the global concerns and the role played by the industry, there is the
interest of estimating what these future energy demands could be, and how
they could be minimized in the various industrial sectors while still meeting the
demand required. The outcome can provide insight on what could happen if
certain paths are taken.
This interest in becoming more efficient is driven by factors such as

governmental policies, economical aspects (e.g. fuel costs), and
environmental and social corporate responsibility along with the technological
development and implementation to accomplish it.
While dealing with future energy projections, it must be borne in mind that the
results obtained are not to be taken as predictions of what is going to occur,
but as possible outcomes in the sector and respective implications of these in
terms of energy consumption.
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As a contribution to this issue, the aim of this thesis is to develop and discuss
possible energy consumption scenarios in the industry as an extension of the
VLEEM Model [VLEEM, 2002]. This extension will address important issues
based on energy use for material consumption for the iron and steel, and
paper and pulp industries.
The insights provided by this report may also contribute to a better

understanding of the implications of a) international agreements on GHG
emissions, b) policy tools creation that lead to meeting international and
regional energy efficiency goals and, c) improve benchmarking in energy
performance at international level [de Jong, 1998].
1.2 Overview
The VLEEM model, which is being developed in a project funded by the

European Commission [EC, 1998], is a long-term energy and environment
model, that makes projections for energy demand over the next century (until
the year 2100). The VLEEM project has been conceptualized and formalized
in order to serve the objective of the RTD activity as specified in the key
action of the Energy sub-programme: of formalizing the process of emergence
and dissemination of clean and renewable energy technologies subject to
research and development in relation to the long-term evolution of the socio-
economic context in the European Union.
The results expected for the VLEEM model are projected levels of energy use
and CO2 emissions (up to the year 2100), based on technological changes,
geographical specific patterns and new requirements in the Industrial sector
while addressing important issues that affect this consumption.
The purpose of VLEEM is threefold, the consolidation of the skeleton-form

energy-environment model, second to address issues related to EC energy-
environment RTD strategies, and third to disseminate VLEEM conceptual,
methodological and factual results to the scientific community.
There are three major ways through which VLEEM is expected to contribute
to the progress of knowledge [VLEEM, 2002]:
- first, it continues to bring new ideas, new concepts, new analytical

schemes to address very long term issues, which is a pre-requisite
for establishing any strategy towards sustainability;
- second, it proposes an integrated multidisciplinary framework in
which various thematic research works can be integrated and
interactions among them are assessed: for example, research on
time, research on demographics and research on long term
economic growth; such an integration might result in enhancement
of each particular field of research as energy projections;
- third, it provides a quantitative tool for simulation, which is likely to
constitute ”laboratory equipment" for further research works on
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energy-environment policy, socio-economics and technological

development.
1.3 Objectives
The main objective of this thesis is to create projections of energy

consumption patterns for the Iron & Steel and Paper & Pulp industries in the
industry sector based on their potential technological improvements and to
assess their influence as a driver of energy use of the sector.
The projections are done for the 10 VLEEM regions representing the world:
North America, Latin America, Former USSR, North Africa and Middle East,
South Asia, China, Asia Pacific OECD, Other Asia Pacific, Africa Sub-Sahara,
and EU-25.
The main objective can de disaggregated into:

• Analyze developments of production and energy use across the world
regions for the Iron & Steel and Paper & Pulp sectors.
• Discuss the underlying drivers that influence the energy use.
• Prepare projections of material and energy use over the next century,
based on the insight gained and additional investigation on potential
future technologies.
• Compare the methodology and results against other studies.
Chapter 2 of the report describes the methodology and indicators used

throughout the report; a description of the two sectors analyzed is presented
in chapter 3. Chapter 4 and 5 deal with specifics of level of activity and the
energy use indicator, data collection and assumptions for the sectors,
followed by the projections for production and energy use in chapter 6.
Chapter 7 discusses the limitations of the followed methodology and how
other studies are compared followed by the conclusion in chapter 8.
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2 METHODOLOGY
2.1 General Methodology
For the industries analyzed there are three main factors affecting energy
consumption [Kim and Worrell, 2002]: production level, production structure
and specific energy consumption (SEC). As shown in equation 1, thus
changes in each of these factors result in a change of energy.
 S i , j Ei , j 
Total Energy = Ai ⋅ ∑  ⋅ 
 Ai
j  Si , j 
Structure of sector
Energy consumption at subsectoral level
Equation 1: Physical Sector factor analysis
Ai: Physical activity in sector i

Si,j: Physical activity in sub sector j
Ei.j: Energy consumption belonging to Si,j
Throughout the report these factors are represented by two indicators: a)

activity indicator (production level and production structure), and b) energy
indicator (SEC). Although implicitly covered in equation 1, Schumacher
[1999], Ruth and Amato [2002] mention other factors that influence the energy
use in the industries:
• Geographical specific (population and GDP growth)

• Technological changes (efficiency improvement, development and
implementation)
• Consumption behavior (activity, regional and country specifics)
• Production (level & structural)
As indicated, for analyzing the future energy system two indicators are
needed. An indication is needed firstly for the level of activity of material
consumption, based on historical analyses on the relation of per capita
material consumption related to per capita income; this level of activity
consumption will be translated into production. Secondly for the level of
energy use in the various sectors which denote the specific energy (GJ/tonne)
based on literature studies on energy efficiency potentials. This specific
energy is generally defined as the amount of energy needed to produce a
4 11/12/2003
tonne of product. With these two indicators, an indication for the final demand
of energy can be obtained.
The above indicators are considered physical indicators as both the level of
activity and the specific energy consumption are expressed in a physical
units, kg and GJ per tonne product respectively. Another way of describing is
with economic indicators, which are expressed in terms of economic value (kg
or GJ per US$ economic output or US$ for energy per US$ economic output).
The physical indicators have been chosen as it has been noted that the use of
these indicators reflects better the tendencies of the industry by capturing
changes in activity, structure and energy intensity [Farla et al., 2001;
Phylipsen, 2000]. One of its main benefits in country comparison is that it
takes into account efficiencies, intra-sectoral structure differences (different
processes/routes within the sector) and developments [Worrell et al., 1997b].
A limitation of this type of indicator is the problem regarding availability and
quality of energy and production data [Farla and Blok, 2001] and cannot be
easily added at higher levels of aggregation in which product variety increases
[Phylipsen, 2000].
The following sections (2.1.1-2.1.3) describe the approach taken to project the
demand for materials and the attendant energy use.
2.1.1 Step 1: Activity level
In order to estimate the future demand for materials, a historic analysis of the
production and consumption patterns for various materials is first made. Time
series for apparent consumption in the past can be derived from production
and trade statistics according to the formula:
Apparent Consumption = Production + (Imports – Exports)

Equation 2: Apparent consumption relation to production and trade.
In VLEEM we apply the hypothesis that the relationship between material

consumption (in tonne) and wealth (GDP) is roughly the same across
countries, regions and time periods. In order to test this hypothesis the
consumption per capita is plotted as a function of the per capita GDP (figure
1). A curve representing the best fit is then included in the graph.
For each of the VLEEM regions representative countries were selected to limit
the time and effort of data collection. The data collected is for the 1980-2000
period. The list of representative countries for each region can be seen in
appendix 1. The countries were selected based on their closeness to the
average GDP per capita for the region.
5 11/12/2003
1.2081
1000 y = 0.0029x
2
R = 0.8804
App. Consump. per cap (kg of crude steel)

Nigeria
100
South Africa
Tunisia
India
China
10
Australia
Japan
Indonesia
1
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
GDP per cap
Figure 1: Per capita apparent steel consumption versus per capita income for selected
African and Asian countries.
At this stage the fitted curve obtained was verified against each VLEEM
region for a final acceptance of the fit. The criterion followed to steps: 1) to
compare how offset the location of regional data is relative to the fitted line. If
it lies close to the line (e.g. Tunisia in figure 1) the fit is considered adequate,
and 2) the estimated apparent consumption for 2000 with the curve fit was
compared to the real value for the base year, if it did not present a drastic
change the fit was considered adequate.
In case an adequate match was not found (especially developing regions, e.g.
China in figure 1) a new curve was fitted using the data for the respective
region and the North America data as an upper limit. This was done for all the
VLEEM regions, taking into account the data for the representative countries.
The final equations used for the apparent consumption model are provided in
the appendix 2.
Once the fitted curve is accepted and the assumption that no drastic changes
in the relation between material consumption vs. wealth will occur in the
future, the information available from this fitted curve can be combined with
forecasts for GDP and population to generate projections for the future
apparent consumption of materials. GDP and population values are available
from many sources [CIECIN, 2002; OECD, 2002].
In further explaining the material demand projection from figure 1 a two-

stepped approach is taken: first, the specific material consumption per capita
(y axis) is determined on the basis of future GDP per capita (x axis), since a
commonly accepted form of comparing countries is through their wealth; and
second, the specific material consumption per capita (y axis) is multiplied by
projected population (e.g. UN’s low, moderate and high growth scenarios until
2100) to calculate the material use in absolute terms (e.g. in million tonnes
per year).
6 11/12/2003
For countries that nowadays have relatively low levels of material use this
curve can be used directly for projections under the assumption that
developing regions follow the development path of industrialized regions,
while, for high-income countries, the fitted curve is projected.
2.1.2 Step 2: Specific energy use
As in Worrell et al. [1997b], we use physical indicators in activity for projection

of apparent consumption (kg), structural factors in terms process type, and
specific energy consumption (GJ/t).
Both the level of activity (e.g., the production volume of steel) and the specific
energy requirements (in GJ per tonne of steel) determine the future total
energy use (in PJ). Having dealt with activity levels in the preceding section
we now turn to specific energy use. To project its future level, first an
inventory is made of results from studies on energy efficiency potentials.
Energy efficiency can be implemented throughout all the industries’ processes

in various places, thus reducing energy consumption and emissions. The
energy efficiency potential technologies from the various studies can be
generally categorized in two levels: a) available energy saving techniques that
are either commercially available or in use at specific locations and, b)
potential long-term energy saving techniques which are still at a development
stage or in limited use.
The studies were classified in two time frames; before the year 2000,
historical SEC studies, and until 2050, future energy potentials, were plotted
for industrialized and developing regions in order to account for the
differences in efficiencies.
Since most of the studies reach until 2050 from this point, up to 2100, a
simple projection method is applied to project the specific energy use
assuming similar dynamics as until 2020/2030. In this report we have made a
trend from historical and potential SEC and two assumptions: 1) SEC trends
for industrialized and developing countries will converge to the same value by
2100, and 2) this value (in 2100) is the result of a 1/3 improvement the
difference between the corresponding future potential value for the year 2050
and the thermodynamical minimum (see figure 2). Under our technological
based scenario the annual energy reduction rates are assumed to fall within
the mentioned ranges. A best possible scenario is assumed to achieve a third
of the remaining gap.
7 11/12/2003
35 From 2050 to 2100:
primary energy requirements (GJp/tonne)

- B: BAU = Autonomous: Bridges one third of the gap
30
- A': "Best possible": Bridges one third of remaining gap
25
20
15
1/3
10 1/3
5 thermodynamic minimum
0
70
80
90
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
00
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
Figure 2: Schematics of specific energy consumption trend for TECHNOLOGY-BASED
scenario until the year 2100 for integrated steel production.
2.1.3 Step 3: Future energy use in absolute terms
By combining step 1 with step 2 we project the total amount of energy

needed. This is done for the selected representative countries under certain
technological development and geographical assumptions for the various
industries. Later, these will be regionalized to obtain an estimate for the
different VLEEM world regions.
2.2 Computation Implementation
The VLEEM model is a long-term energy and environmental model that

provides scenario projections for energy demand and supply and its related
environmental effects (i.e. CO2 emissions) over the next century (until year
2100).
The overview of VLEEM, as presented in 1.2, can be seen in figure 3. This

overview includes the connection for calibration to the other parts of the
general model energy supply and information through elasticity indicators that
are done by other parts of the VLEEM consortium. This latter part is not within
the scope of the present report, but the results obtained will be used.
On the top right, the overview shows the link of the output of energy and
materials use (determined as discussed above) with an indicator on the
information level of a society. This link is made by determining elasticities in a
calibration step. This latter part is not within the scope of the present report,
but the results obtained will be used for this purpose. The computational
8 11/12/2003
implementation of the database for the sector extension and calculation are
stored and performed in Excel sheet.
Figure 3: Methodology for projecting the total amount of energy needed. Source: VLEEM.
2.3 Other methodologies:
It is important to realize that this thesis follows a simple methodology that

could be considered as technology-based, thus presenting some limitations
and differences when compared to other studies. Among the factors not being
modeled, due to the complexity of the variables to take into account and
timeframe, ranges from specifics of primary resources (e.g. decline in iron ore
grade, type of wood), economics (e.g. fuel prices), and policies among others,
for the different regions. To account for these variables at VLEEM region level
and desired detail would require an enormous amount of data and time.
Several other studies have addressed and/or proposed alternative

approaches to deal with such variables that could serve as base for a follow
up study, at different scale. Among these models are:
• Substance Throughput Related to Economic Activity Model-STREAM

[Mannaerts, 2000], a partial equilibrium model with three markets: new
materials, materials and scrap. It describes material flows in primary
and/or secondary production and technologies that distinguish between
labour, capital, electricity, coal, gas, and raw materials or scrap as
input.
9 11/12/2003
• IPTS Report [Hidalgo et al., 2003], describes a simulation model used

to investigate the evolution of iron and steel industry at both global and
national levels from 1997 to 2030, focusing on energy consumption,
emissions, trade, technology dynamics and retrofitting options.
• Vintage model for the US [Ruth, 2002] through a model that uses
econometric forecasting techniques in combination with a partial-
equilibrium approach establishes the demand, production, capital
investment, capacity levels, expansion and contraction of the sector
and their associated energy use and carbon emissions.
• Gunn and Hannon [1983] devised a linear program in which the total
energy used in the US economy to manufacture paper (objective
function) was minimized in terms of the recycling rate influence.
• Jutila and Leiviskä [1981] stress the importance of computer simulation

to assist in research programs and interaction of online simulators, and
for more efficient use of existing processes and the development of
new ones. Integrating production, energy, materials to sales,
administrative and maintenance sectors.
• Nguyen and Chern [1979] present a model to evaluate important

energy issues such as future energy demand, fuel substitution, and
cogeneration in the US, where an econometric estimation is used for
the demand of the paper products.
• Sharma et al. [1997] investigated the economic, social and

environmental impact of international trade of waste paper for recycling
purposes between industrialized and developing countries.
These have modeled the Iron & Steel and/or Paper & Pulp industry in terms of
material flows, energy demand, including trade, prices, and raw materials
related to technological changes and economic variables mostly at a country
level. Where available, results from these studies are compared to the
obtained under the VLEEM methodology. The discussion section will address
some of the aforementioned limitations with the intention of providing insight
on the most critical simplifications of this report.
10 11/12/2003
3 DESCRIPTION OF THE SECTORS
According to the OECD’s energy balance [OECD, 2003], the industry sector
consumed approximately 32% of the world’s total energy consumption in
2000.
Within the industry sector the iron and steel industry is the largest energy
consuming manufacturing sector in the world. In 2000, its global energy
consumption was estimated to be over 276000 Mtoe (Million ton oil
equivalent), or 12-13% total annual industrial energy consumption showing an
increase close to 7% from 1990 [OECD, 2003].
The paper and pulp industry is also among the most energy intensive
manufacturing sectors in the world. In 2000, its global energy consumption
was estimated to be over 123000 Mtoe, or 5-6% the industrial sector’s total
energy consumption an increase of close to 24% compared to 1990 [OECD,
2003].
In the past decades reduction of the energy intensity in the Iron & Steel and
Paper & Pulp industry has been achieved by technological developments in
various parts of the production chain. Therefore it is of interest to analyze how
a continuous development and implementation of efficient technologies
affects the energy intensity of the process and the final energy consumption.
In this chapter an overview of the studied sectors will be made describing the
main processes involved, also a general picture of the current energy use.
3.1 Iron and Steel: Energy Use for Steelmaking
3.1.1 Overview of the iron and steel process
An overview of the process will be given with a brief explanation of the main
processes involved, detailed analysis of these processes are better explained
in the references provided.
Technological developments affect the energy intensity and emissions of the

iron and steel industry, therefore it is important to describe the production of
iron and steel steps and later the current and potential energy saving
technologies that could be applied at each step.
Currently, steel is mainly produced in two ways -from primary and secondary
production these mainly come from two routes, the integrated primary steel
and scrap-based or minimills. Primary production involves the mineral and
11 11/12/2003
coal while the secondary process involves recycling scrap along with sponge
iron and electricity. Broadly iron and steel production can be divided into 5
steps:
1. treatment of raw material

2. iron making
3. steel making
4. casting, and
5. rolling and finishing
Depending on the production route some of the steps are omitted thus
substantially reducing the energy intensity of the overall route: integrated
(steps 1-5) and minimills (steps 3-5).
An overview of the iron and steel routes can be seen in figure 4. Although the
blast furnace (BF) is the main process for iron making, smelt reduction (SR)
and direct reduction technologies (DRT) are alternative technologies for the
process [OECD and IEA, 2000; Farla and Blok, 2001; Schumacher and
Sathaye, 1998].
Figure 4: Processes for the Iron and Steel industry. Source [OECD and IEA, 2000]
12 11/12/2003
3.1.1.1 Treatment of raw material
The main raw materials in the iron production process are coke, iron and
limestone. The process starts through a carbonization process where coke is
produced by heating coal in the absence of air. Some of the by-products of
this process are separated and cleaned and later used as energy carriers in
the steel works. Iron ore is agglomerated in sinter plants or pellets plants.
3.1.1.2 Iron making
This is the most energy intensive step in the steelmaking process. Coke, ore
and lime are fed alternately in the blast furnace. A hot compressed stream of
air, the blast, is blown from the bottom into the furnace. A gas is produced that
reduces the iron ore. Molten pig iron, rich in carbon, is tapped from the bottom
and transferred in isolated vessels to the oxy-steel plant. The coke oven gas
(by-product from previous step) is fed into the blast furnace and the energy in
the gas is used for the iron making.
Some of the new technologies in the iron making process currently being
used are DRI and smelting (COREX, where one plant exists), although not at
large scale and their market penetration is small.
3.1.1.3 Steel making
Steelmaking is the reduction to below 1.9% in carbon content of the hot iron
metal. Here carbon and other impurities are removed by oxygen blowing.
Usually part of the input into the oxy-steel plant is scrap or other iron-bearing
materials. The characteristics and quality of the crude steel are adjusted in a
series of ladle refining processes. Integrated steel mills may use the Open
Hearth Furnace (OHF) or the Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF). Secondary steel
is produced in an electric arc furnace (EAF); here scrap is melted and refined
using electrical energy.
3.1.1.4 Casting
The casting of steel can either be continuous or batch (ingot casting). In ingot
casting liquid steel is cast into ingots that are cooled, then reheated and rolled
into slabs, blooms or billets in the primary mill. In continuous casting the
reheating step is eliminated because the molten steel is cast directly into
slabs or blooms while still hot, thus more efficient in terms of energy use.
Currently 86% of casting is continuous [IISI, 2002].
13 11/12/2003
3.1.1.5 Rolling and finishing
The cast steel is reheated, rolled and sent to a number of finishing operations.
These final operations depend largely on the type of steel that is produced.
Slabs, strips, bars or plates are made by hot forming, where the heated steel
is passed between two rollers until it reaches the desired thickness. Wires,
tubes, sheets and strips are produced by cold forming, although more time
consuming the products have better mechanical properties. After rolling is
completed, the steel pieces are finished to prevent corrosion and improve
properties of the metal.
3.1.2 Current Energy Use
Knowing the general process for the production of iron and steel it becomes
important to know what the energy use for each process is. The following
table provides typical energy intensities of the key iron and steelmaking
processes.
Table 1: Ranges of primary energy intensities of key iron and steelmaking processes
(GJ/tonne steel); compiled by Price et al. 2002.
Process Ranges of primary energy intensity (GJ/t
steel)
1, 2
Iron making Pig iron 12.7 – 18.6
3
Smelt Reduction 13.0 – 18.0
4, 5
DRI 10.9 – 16.9
4, 6
Steelmaking OHF 3.9 – 5.0
1, 7
BOF 0.7 – 1.0
1, 4,7
Scrap+EAF 4.0 – 6.5
4
DRI+EAF 4.0 – 6.7
4, 7,8,9,10
Casting Ingot Casting 1.2 – 3.2
4, 7,8,9,10
Continuous casting 0.1 – 0.34
3, 5
Thin slab casting 0.6 – 0.9
1, 10
Rolling Hot rolling 2.3 – 5.4
1, 10
Cold rolling 1.6 – 2.8
Note: Ironmaking includes energy used for ore preparation and cokemaking. Ironmaking – DRI and Steelmaking –
DRI+EAF assume 80% DRI and 20% scrap.
1 2 3 4 5 6
Sources: Worrell et al., 1999; IISI 1996; Worrell and Moore, 1997a; WEC, 1995; IISI 1998; Kudrin, 1985;
7 8 9 10
Energetics, 2000; Brown et al., 1985; Energetics, 1998; Worrell et al., 1993.
The ranges on table 1 show the various levels depending on the technologies
used within each step of the process. It can be observed from the table that
various production routes show differences in energy intensity, as the BOF
route shows higher energy intensity due to iron reduction process whilst the
EAF skips this stage.
14 11/12/2003
3.2 Paper and Pulp: Energy Use for papermaking
3.2.1 Overview of the Paper and Pulp process
As with the Iron & Steel sector, an overview of the process will be given with a
brief explanation of the main processes involved, detailed analysis of these
process are better explained in the references provided. A view of the steps
within the process will help foresee where the current and potential energy
saving techniques could be applied.
Broadly paper production can be divided into 4 steps:

1. raw material preparation
2. pulping
3. pulp processing, and
4. papermaking
An overview of this process is presented in figure 5 along with a description of

the main processes [Martin et al, 2000; CEPI, 2001; de Jong, 1998].
Raw material preparation Forestry harvesting sorting
Pulping Recovered paper Mechanical Chemical
Pulp Processing
Bleaching
Chemical recovery
paper drying
Papermaking Stock preparation sheet formation finishing
Figure 5: Schematics of the processes for the paper and pulp industry.
3.2.1.1 Raw materials preparation
The preparation of raw materials takes place at the logging site, where
forestry, harvesting and sorting occurs. After the trees have been harvested,
the logs are sorted and transported to the mills where the bark is treated.
15 11/12/2003
Usually the energy consumption is not included in the pulp and paper industry
[de Jong, 1998], but processes like debarking, chipping and conveying have
been estimated to consume about 30.3 KWh/t raw material ]Martin et al.,
2000].
3.2.1.2 Pulping
The main purpose of pulping is freeing the fibers from the lignin that binds the
fibers together in wood. Within the pulping process the main processes are:
Mechanical: Is the oldest pulping process where pulp is produced by grinding

wood into relatively short fibers. Its advantage is the higher yields than
chemical pulping and its drawback are the impurities that lead to weaker
paper (mainly newspaper and wood-containing paper). Among the
mechanical processes there are stone ground pulping, refiner pulping,
thermomechanical pulping (wood particles softened by steam before entering
a pressurized refiner) and Chemi-thermomechanical pulp [Martin et al., 2000].
Chemical: The most used technique; in 2000 71% of all wood pulp in the
world was chemical pulp [FAOSTAT, 2003]. Compared to mechanical pulping
the yield is lower but provides a stronger fiber of higher quality, thus high
quality paper can be produced. The Kraft process is among the most common
[Martin et al., 2000].
Pulp from recovered paper: Here the recovered paper is de-inked and re-
pulped before being used for papermaking. Recovered paper uses
considerably less energy than wood-based pulp, therefore high energy
savings can be achieved here. Recovered paper is being more competitive in
all paper types due to new contaminant removal technology, with the
exception of the highest quality grade since it needs longer fibers [Martin et
al., 2000].
During the pulp processing the mixing of the virgin pulp with water is of great
importance, obtaining a consistency of 1% dry substance in order to increase
flexibility and bonding power [de Jong, 1998].
3.2.1.3 Pulp Processing
Of the most important processes after pulping we have: a) bleaching which is

divided in various stages to remove the remaining lignin that is bonded to the
pulp; diversity of bleaches for different types of paper make energy
consumption vary, b) chemical recovery (extraction and reuse of the pulping
chemicals) which is divided into black liquor concentration, energy recovery
and recaustization of the remaining liquor and, c) paper drying; necessary to
ship the pulp to the paper mill in case the pulp and paper mills are not located
in the same place. It must be noted that this stage is highly energy intensive
16 11/12/2003
and essential to the papermaking process, therefore high savings can be

achieved.
3.2.1.4 Papermaking
Consistency is an important parameter that reflects how much water has been
taken out. For the later processes in special paper pressing the consistency is
usually 40-50%, where more consistency is wanted as it reduces the energy
requirement for drying. Thus pressing for a higher consistency is an important
option in saving techniques.
The papermaking process is composed of stock preparation (blending pulps

and additive to form uniform and continuous slurry), sheet formation (paper is
formed by spraying a low consistency pulp onto a moving wire mesh that
allows water to drain away) and finishing (here pressing promotes further
paper bonding between fibers by removing more water. The end of the
process involves the drying section where steam filled rollers dry the paper
through evaporation. This section consumes the bulk of energy in
papermaking at 10GJ/t and 21 kWh/t paper [Martin et al., 2000].
3.2.2 Current Energy Use
Based on the previous process description it is of relevance to know the

average energy use during each process, the following table provides such
typical intensities.
Table 2: Ranges for primary energy intensities for papermaking. Compiled from de Jong,
1998 and de Beer, 1999.
Type SECh (GJ/t) SECe (GJ/t) SEC primary
steam electricity (GJ/t)
Raw material processing
Forestry and harvesting 0.22
Harvesting only1 0.19
2
Harvesting only 0.10
Pulping
3
Fiber preparation 0.08 0.19
4
Mechanical pulp -2.1 5.3 11.2
4
Chemical pulp 10.0 2.5 16.3
4
Other wood pulp -3.0 6.0 12.0
4
Secondary Fiber 0.4 1.4 3.9
Pulp Processing5
Bleaching 0.85 0.53 2.25
Drying 3.38 0.4 3.38
Papermaking
4
Newsprint 2.5 1.4 6.0
Newsprint6 2.3-8.6 1.3-2.9 8.7
4
Printing 7.0 2.0 12.0
17 11/12/2003
6
Printing 2.9-8.6 1.9-3.2 15.4
4
Sanitary 5.0 2.4 11.0
Sanitary 6 2.6-7.0 2.4-3.6 16.9
4
Packaging 5.0 1.5 8.8
Packaging 6 2.3-7.7 1.3-2.9 12.1
4
Other paper 6.0 1.5 10.5
Other paper6 5.0-7.0 1.3-1.8 9.5
Sources: 1Kaltschmitt and Reinhardt, 1997; 2NOH, 1992; 3Jaccard et al., 1996; 4Farla et al.,
5
Nilsson et al., 1995; 6de Beer et al., 1998. Note: Primary energy has been calculated
assuming all heat is generated at efficiency of 90% and electricity at 33% for de Beer and
40% for rest of sources.
Table 2 shows the various ranges for energy consumption at the different
stages of the paper and pulp processes. About 75% of current pulping is
chemical. Adding the highest SEC of the ranges the largest possible SEC is
for printing paper together with chemical pulping around 37 GJ/t; and for the
lowest for newsprint around 27 GJ/t. If secondary fiber is used then the SEC
are even lower by about 12 GJ/t. This reflects how the final energy
consumption is very dependent on the pulping process and the paper product.
18 11/12/2003
4 PHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICATORS
This chapter deals with the construction of the apparent consumption curves
based on historical data, and the assumptions made (i.e. consumption, trade,
resources) for the projections for the iron and steel and paper and pulp
sectors.
The level of activity for the sectors is described as a trend relating apparent
consumption per capita vs. GDP per capita. To construct such trend time
series of historical data for the VLEEM regions are needed in terms of
population, GDP, material production and trade of products. The data was
gathered from various sources as shown in table 3.
Table 3: Historical data needed to construct apparent consumption cap vs. GDP per capita
trend (level of activity) for the Iron & Steel and Paper & Pulp sectors.
Source Information
Macroeconomic Framework
VLEEM GDP and population (1971-2000)
consortium
Iron & Steel Sector
IISI various Data of total crude steel production, type of process and
years apparent consumption was obtained from IISI Statistical
Year Book
UNCTAD Trade data from the year 1982 for most countries. This
Trade Statistics information was used to calculate the apparent consumption
for the several years and compare it with the report from
IISI.
UN Industrial The total production was compared against the UN Industrial
Statistics statistics to estimate level of reliability. This data was
available from the year 1970 for most countries.
U.S. Historical For the US data until 1990 (production, import, export and
Statistics for apparent consumption) was obtained from Historical
Mineral Statistics for Mineral Commodities in the US.1
Commodities
Paper & Pulp Sector
FAOSTAT Data of total paper products from 1970 until 2000 was
Database gathered.
At this stage the key physical indicator is the apparent consumption of the
product (steel or paper, kg). In order to project material production per region
the inclusion of trade (imports and exports) has to be included.
To accurately model trade a deep understanding of markets, resources,

prices and other interests (governmental agreements, etc.) have to be
1
http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/of01-006/ironandsteel.xls
19 11/12/2003
included. As trade follows a dynamic changing economic environment where

it is hard to quantitatively measure the effects and their impact on the global
sector certain restrictions and assumptions must be made.
Regarding the iron and steel sector, trade has been modeled in different
ways. Michaelis and Jackson [2000] keep the trade for the UK steel sector
constant at 1994 levels in order to concentrate on the internal changes of the
industry, Ruth [2002] mentions the use of an econometric model for the US
market demand and supply, Labson [1997] describes an econometric trade
model that simulates dynamics of regional production and consumption over
the short to medium term (4 years). For the paper and pulp industry trade is
also a complex systems, specially in regards to waste paper as western
collection systems may have adverse effects due to lack of knowledge of local
circumstances, informal traditions, and ignoring market forces [Sharma et al.
1997]. Given the found complexity in ways of modeling and the timeframe in
which VLEEM operates, such detailed trade models have limited applicability.
In our case, trade is accounted in the following way: rather than keeping trade
as a fix material amount, the ratio between net import (imports minus exports)
and apparent consumption (units of t/t) was kept constant at 2000 ratio. The
sign of the ratio expresses the importing or exporting tendency of the region,
therefore added or subtracted to the apparent consumption to provide the
projected production (equation 3).
 Netimport 2000 
P = AppCon − AppCon 
 AppCon2000 
Equation 3: Projected production as a function of the projected apparent consumption and
the ratio trade-to-apparent consumption of the year 2000.
Trade was accounted in the same way for Iron & Steel and Paper & Pulp, a
detailed explanation follows within each subchapter. As with all trade model
drawbacks are unavoidable, under this consideration the assumption that
current trade patterns for the regions will stay the same.
4.1 Iron and Steel: Production and Consumption
4.1.1 Historical data for iron and steel
As mentioned in the general methodology historical time series of

consumption are needed for our projections, therefore the need that the data
be as reliable and correct as possible. For the iron/steel statistics various
sources were used, the historical data was used and organized as presented
in table 3.
20 11/12/2003
The main source use was obtained from the IISI reports to maintain
consistency within the way of reporting. Still, the chance for discrepancies to
arise exists. This has been seen when cross checking some of the sources to
see what percentage of error might be encountered (e.g. IISI and UN data
show different values for the same country and the same year). A more
complete analysis of these types of discrepancies in the iron and steel data is
commented by Farla and Blok [2001]; it is good to note that their analysis
might be applicable to other industries. Other references [Price et. al, 2002]
make reference to reporting problems from countries’ institutions to higher
institutions.
As explained in the methodology, this historical data was used to create

relation between material consumption vs. wealth that might occur on the
assumption stated that regions tend to increase consumption with wealth until
a balance is reached. The following figure shows the apparent consumption
for the VLEEM regions.
1000.00
Latin America
Frmr USSR
Log App. Comsump per cap (kg)
North America
100.00
North Africa and
Middle East
South Asia
Africa Sub-Sahara
10.00
EU-25
Model
1.00
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
GDP per cap (1995 US$, ppp)
Figure 6: Apparent consumption per cap vs. GDP per cap for the representative countries
grouped under the VLEEM regions and the adjusted empirical trend.
As expected, there is a tendency of increasing apparent consumption with

wealth until a stabilization of this consumption occurs. Countries that show a
clear apparent stabilization are the US, Canada, Japan, Australia, and various
EU countries. The trend that describes this tendency was selected using a
curve fitting software CurveExpert v1.3© where the Modified Exponential
curve gave the best fitting under the expression:
21 11/12/2003
y = ae x
Equation 4: Fitted curve for the apparent consumption trend, where a=634.28, b=-8585.44
and correlation coefficient = 0.7575.
As explained in the methodology the fit obtained was verified against each
region for acceptance. The equations used for each region are provided in
appendix 2.
4.1.2 Projections
It must be noted that our approach is based on projections of observed trends

in the past, thus possibly do not account for increased material efficiency
improvements [van Vuuren, 1999].
Adopting such apparent consumption development trend must take into

account several assumptions. Among these assumptions for the iron and
steel industry are:
Consumption: Demand for steel consumption slows down per capita value as
the wealth of the country per capita increases; this assumption is also seen in
other studies (e.g. 425 kg/capita average for industrialized countries as of
1995, [Price et al., 2001]).
Trade: Translating apparent consumption to production the net trade is

assumed to be constant as a percentage of the apparent consumption (year
2000 levels).
Figure 7 shows the historical net import to apparent consumption ratio versus
time. In the last decades industrialized regions (figure 7a) tend to move into
being importers and developing regions (figure 7b) into exporters2.
The ratio for North America was around 11.14% in 1971 and increased to
around 23.91% by 2000, similarly Asia Pacific OECD increased from -33.52%
to around -23.62% for the same years. In the case of Europe the ratio is about
the same for both years (-4.28% and -4.60%), but showing a strong exporting
peak in 1992 (-32%); when similar ratio is done for the totality of industrialized
regions the ratio increases from around -3.9% to 0.44% in 1971 and 2000
respectively. For developing regions with the exception of other Asia Pacific
which shows the same ratio, the rest of the regions present a shift from
importing to exporting in relation to the apparent consumption. Totaling the
net trade over apparent consumption for the developing regions it shows a
movement from 28.78% to -1.81% in 1971 and 2000 respectively.
2
Data for former USSR after 1990s is not been included as it shows a drastic break from
historical tendency after its division in the early 90s, suggesting data problems.
22 11/12/2003
Based on this assumption North America will remain a net importer thus its
steel production will be lower than its consumption. Similar analyses are
observed for developing regions, where South America (mainly due to Brazil)
have a higher production to meet the exporting assumption. Other regions
such as Middle East and other Asia Pacific have a lower steel production. A
limitation is that current trade patterns for the regions will stay the same.
30.00%
20.00%
10.00% North America

ratio (net trade / app. consump)
0.00%
Asia Pcific OECD

-10.00%
-20.00%
Europe
-30.00%
-40.00%
Industrialized
-50.00% Regions
-60.00%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
time
100.00%
80.00%
ratio (net trade / app. consump)
60.00% Latin America All
40.00% China
South Asia
20.00%
Former USSR
0.00%
North Africa and Middle East
-20.00%
Other Asia Pacific
-40.00%
Africa Sub Sahara
-60.00% Develping Regions

1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
time
(upper) and developing regions (lower) for the Iron & Steel industry. Positive sign show
importing trend compared to consumption and negative sign an exporting trend.
Regionaly, industrialized regions (North America, Europe and Asia OECD,

figure 7a blue line) have mantained a general shift towards an importing
tendency for the past decades; North America has increased its share of
imports (in relation to their apparent consumption), whereas Asia OECD show
a shift from exporter to importers. In the case of Europe the past decades
23 11/12/2003
shows a trend towards importing, but no change from the beginning of the
time series. This shows the need for longer time series to have a better
understanding of trade patterns.
For developing regions (figure 7b red line) a general opposite shift is

observed, where South America and Africa have a strong exporting position
relative to their apparent consumption in the last decade.
Plotting the same ratio against GDP per capita in order to observe the relation
between the wealth of the region and its trade behavior related to their
consumption it is seen how at an early state regions are net importers (North
Africa & Middle East), as their wealth increases they become higher steel
producers (South America, China) tending towards a relative stabilization
related to their consumption (Europe & North America).
It must be noted that the products taken into account for trade are semi-
finished and finished products as reported by IISI (e.g. flat products, long
products, tubes, etc.).
100.00%
Latin America All

80.00%
North America
60.00% China
ratio (net import / app. consump)
Asia Pcific OECD

40.00% South Asia
Former USSR
20.00%
0.00% Other Asia Pacific
Africa Sub Sahara
-20.00% Europe
Develping Regions
-40.00%
Industrialized Regions
-60.00%
-80.00%
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
GDP cap
Figure 8: Ratio of net import over apparent consumption vs. GDP per capita for industrialized
regions (right side of graph) and developing regions (left side of graph) for the Iron & Steel
industry. Positive sign show importing trend compared to consumption and negative sign an
exporting trend.
Simply put, our assumption implies a constant net import to apparent

consumption (horizontal line) for any change in their GDP per capita growth.
Resources: Material input availability, iron ore and scrap, for primary and
secondary routes is assumed no to be a limiting factor for future development.
Based on reports the largest iron ore producers: Brazil [BDB, 2000], Australia
[Mbendi, 2003] where long-term projected supply is expected to come from
24 11/12/2003
[MPR, 2000], India [Schumacher 1998] and South Africa3 have the capacity to
increase and meet the demand for iron ore and it is assumed that steel scrap
will be available.
Political reforms: Reforms that have influenced this apparent consumption

trend are seen in China in its economic reforms and opening to the outside
world [Ma et al. 2002] and Mexico’s investment and expansion after
privatization [Martin et al. 1999].
4.2 Paper and Pulp Sector: Production and Consumption
4.2.1 Historical data for paper and pulp
Historical time series of paper production and trade (final products) where
collected from the FAOSTAT database4.
This historical data was used to create relation between material consumption
vs. wealth that might occur under the assumption stated in the methodology.
The following figure shows the apparent consumption for the VLEEM regions
for the paper and pulp industry.
1000.00
Latin America All

Log App. Con cap (kg)
100.00 North America

China
Asia Pcific OECD
South Asia
Frmr USSR
10.00 North Africa and Middle East
Other Asia Pacific
Africa Sub Sahara
Europe
World trend
1.00
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
GDP cap
Figure 9: Apparent consumption per cap vs. GDP per cap for the VLEEM regions and the
adjusted empirical trend for the Paper & Pulp Industry
3
AME Mineral Economics. Short term forecast and analysis.
http://www.ame.com.au/guest/fe/main.htm (access 01.09.03)
4
For more information on the FAO Statistical data and data sources refer to the database.
25 11/12/2003
As expected, there is a tendency of increasing apparent consumption with

wealth. A faster rate is seen in the early stages (e.g. developing regions)
followed by a slower rate as wealth per capita increases (e.g. industrialized
regions). Regions that seem to be reaching this latter rate of increased
consumption are North America, Europe and Asia OECD. The representative
trend that best fits this behavior was a combination between the power curve
and the modified exponential curve (equation 4), as before the fit obtained
was verified against each region for acceptance.
y = ax b x ≤ 21000
d
ce x x > 21000
Equation 5: Fitted curve for the apparent consumption trend for paper and pulp, where
a=1.85e-04, b=1.39, c=538.18 and d=-20760.
4.2.2 Projections
As with the Iron & Steel our approach is based on projections of observed
trends in the past. Similarly, the assumptions made for the Paper & Pulp
industry are:
Consumption: Apparent consumption for paper tends to stabilize as the

wealth of the country per capita increases.
Trade: The net trade is assumed to be constant as a percentage of the

apparent consumption (year 2000 levels).
Figure 10 shows the historical net import to apparent consumption ratio

versus time, for paper, where in the last decades industrialized regions (figure
10a) have stayed generally constant in their trend with a recent tendency
towards exporting and developing regions (figure 10b) also relatively constant
as being main importers5, only Other Asia Pacific region has shown a sharp
move towards exporting paper relative to their consumption.
Based on this assumption North America and Europe will remain a net
exporter thus its paper production will be higher than its consumption, while
Asia OECD has shown a paper export trend in the past decade. Similar
analyses are observed from developing regions, where with the exception of
Other Asia Pacific and Africa Sub-Sahara the rest of the regions present a
relatively constant ratio.
5
Data for former USSR after 1990s is not been included as it shows a drastic break from
historical tendency after its division in the early 90s, suggesting data problems.
26 11/12/2003
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
North America
0.00%
-2.00% Asia Pcific OECD
-4.00%
Europe
-6.00%
-8.00%
-10.00%
-12.00%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
time
100.00%
80.00%
Latin America All

60.00%
China
South Asia
40.00%
Former USSR
20.00% North Africa and Middle East
Other Asia Pacific

0.00%
Africa Sub Sahara
-20.00% Develping Regions

1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
time
(upper) and developing regions (lower) for the Paper & Pulp industry.
Regionaly, industrialized regions (North America, Europe and Asia OECD,

figure 10a blue line) have mantained consitent exporting tendency, where the
ratio in 1971 is -3.55% and -6.10% in 2000. North America has kept this trend
with some fluctiations (in relation to their apparent consumption), Europe has
shown a stronger shift towards exporting ( -0.19% to 9.84%).
For developing regions (figure 10b red line), have maintained an importing
tendency relative to their consumption where in 1971 this ratio was 30.49%
and 18.19% in 2000. All the developing regions with the exception of Other
Asia Pacific are importers relative to their consumption.
Plotting the same ratio against GDP per capita shows an apparent balance
between trade and consumption for industrialized regions with an exporting
tendency. Developing regions don’t present this relative stabilization, but have
remained within the same range with the exception of Other Asia Pacific.
27 11/12/2003
100.00%
Latin America All
North America
80.00%
China
60.00% Asia Pcific OECD
South Asia
40.00% North Africa and Middle
East
Other Asia Pacific
20.00%
Africa Sub Sahara
Europe
0.00%
Develping Regions
-20.00%
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000
time
Figure 11: Ratio of net import over apparent consumption vs. GDP per capita for
industrialized regions (right side of graph) and developing regions (left side of graph) for the
Paper & Pulp industry. Positive sign show importing trend compared to consumption and
negative sign an exporting trend.
Political: Environmental concerns is among the most important drivers of

technological change, also the health and environmental impact of bleach has
created some debate, which has driven the industry to search for chlorine-free
products as bleaching agents [Nilsson, 1996; Lundmark, 2003]. Collins [1994]
examines the environmental importance on technology innovation seen in
cradle-to-grave analysis that award eco-label within the EU.
Also recycling might be pushed further by certain governments as it tends to

reduce public cost of waste recollection and landfilling, in their study Sharma
et al. [1997] raised several policy issues at the international, national and local
level that might provide a framework that facilitates the analysis of waste
paper in developing countries.
Through various governmental policies there seems to be potential for

achievements; Ren [1998] summarizes the Clean Production (CP) initiative
which has reduced pollution and brought a competitive advantage on the
market, Pilavachi [1996] discusses the role of the EU through its R&D
programme in supporting energy efficiency in the paper and pulp industry,
providing insight into the projects that show the most benefit, and Price and
Thillainathan [1981] address the utilization of waste paper in their policy
simulation experiments.
Resources: This report doesn’t go into detail with respect to the raw material,
for example the type of wood hardwood or softwood which could result in
higher yield or greater strength respectively [de Jong, 1999]. New fast-
growing woods, as Eucalyptus, are particularly attractive for cloning use,
which can be harvested after seven years and providing high quality pulp with
a higher yield [Collins, 1994]. Neither can we forecast resource depletion, as
28 11/12/2003
Indonesia’s case their tropical forests are being lost at a rate of 3.8m hectares
a year. At this rate almost all its forest might be lost in a decade or two.
Currently it estimated that 80% of logging is done illegally.6 Conditions such
as this one are out of the scope of this thesis.
6
Article on WBCSD www.wbcsd.org. Jakarta promises to tackle loggers, but admits
corruption will impede progress. (Accessed on 11-13-03).
29 11/12/2003
5 SPECIFIC ENERGY INDICATOR
This chapter deals with the energy potentials used and technologies involved
in the projection of energy demand for both sectors. As in the case of the level
of activity, the level of specific energy use is described as a trend relating the
specific energy consumption (SEC) in GJ/t vs. time. First, the creation of the
specific energy consumption curves is explained for various processes within
the sectors (e.g. EAF for iron and steel, and newsprint for paper and pulp),
along with the assumptions made. Second, categorization of possible energy
efficient technologies and measures with the potential of achieving the SEC
reported are presented and commented.
For Iron & Steel and Paper & Pulp different studies on available technologies,
best practices and potentials of technologies within regions have estimated
various levels of specific energy consumption that could be achieved in the
long-term. Based on these potentials (SEC, GJ/tonne, for the processes) a
future technological development trend is created. To construct such trend
historical and potential values are collected from various studies are plotted
until the year 2050, thereafter the procedure described in the methodology is
followed.
Some studies have warned about the inclination to estimate future potentials
based on past technological advances as the results could be too optimistic,
stating that future developments in some processes cannot simply be
extrapolated [Daniel and Moll, 1998]. Some of the reasons for this stand
include: getting to the limit of technological improvements (theoretical
minimum efficiency) and the rate of current and future changes (in %p.a.)
cannot be as high as those in the past as the gap between average and best
practice is decreasing.
However, a technology-based development, as is our approach, can provide

an idea of the tendency for energy consumption while still taking into account
the thermodynamic minimum and a decreasing efficiency improvement rate
over time.
The assumption of an increase in energy efficiency based on technological

development is based from the noticed decline in energy intensity in the
studied sectors, which could be partially attributed to governmental energy
conservation programs and policies [Ma et al., 2002; Worrell et al., 1997b;
SAVE-ODYSSEE, 2003]. Ausubel [1995] states that this technical progress
can be seen in various areas (e.g. transport, energy and agriculture) and that
its rate and adaptation change should not be underestimated.
This idea of technology innovation has also been suggested by Collins [1994]
using Kondratieff’s theory of economic cycles in the pulp and paper industry,
illustrating a new cycle where technology innovation is stimulated by the
environment and the role of biotechnologies in developing new technologies.
30 11/12/2003
Working from this decline and potentials obtained from other studies a
technological development trend is created. The SEC trends created are in
accordance with the typical energy efficiency improvements of ~1.0% per year
up to 1.5% if pressure from external drivers is present. For steel the
improvements obtained are 0.51%, 0.50% and 0.46% (in % p.a.) for the
integrated route and 0.91%, 0.90%, and 0.77% for EAF between 2000 and
2020, 2030 and 2050, and 2050 and 2100 respectively. For the whole paper
sector we obtained 1.19%, 1.17%, 0.96% between the same years (figures for
industrialized regions only).
The assumptions and approach mentioned so far are considered as

technology based development. Note that this approach might still have some
drawbacks in its outlook as political system uncertainties, lack of
dissemination of information on energy efficiency technologies, fuel prices,
capital scarce economies and other factors are not taken into account as their
estimates for the time frame carry much uncertainty [Schumacher, 1998].
5.1 Iron and Steel Sector
5.1.1 Assumptions and projections
Adopting such technological development trend must take into account

several assumptions. Among these assumptions for the iron and steel
industry are:
Structural Changes: Within the physical activity of the Iron & Steel sector the
structure is of great importance. The two main routes for steel production are
basic oxygen furnace (BOF) and electric arc furnace (EAF), where as
explained electricity is used to melt and refine the steel scrap input. The
structural changes between BOF and EAF are of importance for the energy
demand projections; therefore it is necessary to analyze what determines the
share of EAF.
Our assumption for the sector is that EAF penetration world wide will increase
its share up to 50% in 2100, from its current 30%, based on projected
penetration [Michaelis, 2000; van Vuuren, 1999].
Currently most of the EAF plants use scrap as input, thus avoiding the iron
making step leading to much lower energy consumption. A limitation of only
using scrap as input is the low quality of the steel compared to BOF (due to
scrap impurities). In order to increase the quality of the EAF steel, sponge iron
from the DRI process or iron ore from smelting reduction can serve as
feedstock for the EAF.
Nill [2003] mentions some of the factors that have promoted the diffusion of
EAF where the most influential are 1) lower investment and capital cost than
31 11/12/2003
integrated steel mills, therefore allowing to penetrate the low quality market
mainly used in construction, 2) affordability to produce steel for small and
developing countries, 3) improvements in the steel quality allow the expansion
into larger segments of the market, 4) high technical efficiency, high
automation and low investment. These benefits raised the EAF share during
the steel crisis from 1970s until 1990.
To quantify the true amount of scrap availability for use in EAF and BOF (can
take maximum of 20 per cent scrap) routes a scrap model should be used.
These models take into account the time until the produced steel becomes
scrap, the amount and quality of scrap steel that can be used, and the delay
time until the scrap is actually used as well as all the cost associated. An
overview of scrap material flow into EAF and BOF routes is shown in figure
12.
Trade Non-used
Production scrap
EAF Consumption Application: Waste Recycled
BOF Building Scrap
Transport, etc
(Residence time,
years)
Age contamination
Dispersion
Rust
Scrap quality
Figure 12: General schematics of scrap flow into EAF and BOF routes.
Studies that have dealt with scrap models and material flows [Van Vuuren,
1995; Ruth, 2000 Michaelis, 2000; and Hidalgo, 2003] present no scrap
scarcity in their projections. Due to the fact that scraps accessibility (EAF’s
input) will change according to the availability and price. Similar approach is
taken to other industries as plastics [Patel, 1999], where a material flow model
is used to analyze production, time of residence, and present and future
amount of waste.
Due to time limitations we have made two rough estimations to analyze, under
our assumptions, scrap availability under the condition that steel’s use
residence time is 50 years.
32 11/12/2003
First, still under the assumption of EAF reaching a 50% share by 2100, an
initial rough estimation assuming that all input into EAF processes is scrap
and all steel can be recycled. Under this assumption and our projected steel
production scrap scarcity should not be a problem.
Second, of the steel waste 80% can be considered recycled scrap [Michaelis,
2000] also based on the reference potentials of new EAF technologies we
assume by the year 2020 there will be a share of 10% of non-scrap input into
the EAF via these technologies (DRI and/or smelting technologies) and
increasing up to 30% by 2100. Sponge iron resulting from DRI can be
primarily used as a charge to EAF to prevent scrap shortages or to enhance
the steel quality from EAF production [Gielen and Van Dril, 1997]. Also under
this rough estimation we assume scrap availability should not a problem.
A note of caution; these rough estimates were based on the historical world
steel production and a residence time of 50 years (from production until
available scrap) that then would go into the EAF process. It must be
emphasized that changes and developments in steel technologies (as DRI
and smelting), distinction between steel and scrap quality (high, medium, low),
scrap geographic dispersion, prices and ability to recycle steel waste are likely
to alter these estimates. Scrap availability and its determined factors provide
the base for the EAF share among the VLEEM regions. In our report we have
estimated a market share for BOF and EAF assuming that new technologies
are reflected in this share.
For the EAF steel production penetration in the market an S-type has been
assumed, thus increasing in the first decades and declining this growth in the
later years with a maximum share of 50 per cent for the year 2100. This limit
has been based on analysis from another study with our timeframe [Van
Vuuren and De Vries, 1995] where under the pessimistic scenario the EAF
share in the year 2100 is around 50 per cent, assuming scrap availability will
not a be a problem.
Since not all regions have the same EAF shares at the moment and since it is
very likely that the end points will also differ it is necessary to prepare different
development trajectories. In trying to be consistent with present time and
possible changes the VLEEM regions have been divided in the following (in
terms of EAF penetration): North America, China and former USSR, North
Africa and Middle East and other Asia Pacific and lastly rest of the world.
Table 4 presents the EAF share development for the VLEEM regions, where
the following final EAF share assumptions apply (no assumptions were made
regarding the share for 2050):
• North America: starting from 2000 levels and ending with a

maximum share of 67%, value projected by Ruth [1995].
• China & former USSR: starting from 2000 levels and assume their
ending EAF share at 35%. This as their industry is mainly based on
integrated plants, but increasing amounts of available scrap metal
will allow the production structure to shift towards EAF.
33 11/12/2003
• North Africa & Middle East and other Asia Pacific: Their current
(2000 levels) EAF share is high around 80% for North Africa &
Middle East and 62% for other Asia Pacific, although this share
might decrease due to uncertainties in energy and metal prices we
have taken their joint share (68%) and kept it constant.
• Rest of the world: starting from 2000 levels and end share around
50%.
Table 4: EAF share development for the VLEEM regions

2000 2100
North America 46% 67%
China and Former USSR 19% 35%
Africa & Middle East and 68% 68%
other Asia Pacific
Rest of the world 34% 50%
The structural development assumed above, under the current technology

based assumption, projects a world EAF share growth from the base 34%
(year 2000, IISI 2002) to 49% by 2100.
Specific energy consumption: Different specific energy consumption curves

between industrialized and developing countries where created for the
respective routes based on the potentials found on literature. The use of two
SEC curves is intended to simulate the ‘catch up’ behavior between world
regions due to investment, technology transfer and application of new
technologies, where lastly both SEC tend to converge. The references and
values used for the creation of the specific energy consumption potential trend
are presented in table 4. Note that there are four independent studies with
projections for future energy use (2010, 2020, and 2050).
Table 5: Literature review for specific energy consumption and potential potentials for
integrated and secondary steel production.
Integrated Secondary
Reference Year Country
Steel (GJ/t) Steel (GJ/t)
Thermodynamic
All 6.6 0.1
minimum
1993 All Europe 24
1998 Best Potential 19 7
2020 Potential 12.5 3.5
1 NL 20
GE 21
FIN 22
1994 SP 23.5
UK 24
CZ 26
BE 28
2 1994 USA 21.8 8.5
3 1997 NL 20.6 9.7
1994 UK 19.4 11.6
4
2020 Potential 17.0 10.4
5 1989 CAN 26.43 10.19
34 11/12/2003
2000 CAN 18.84 6.83

2010
Potential 13.80 5.98
1994 US 21.13 10.4
Best potential 20.90 11.0
6
2000
US 18.5 8.3
Brazil 23.1
China 36.7
7 1995 India 37.2 18.8
Mexico 22.6
South Africa 44.4
Brazil 32.3
1980
China 51.3
8
Brazil 31.7
1991
China 42.4
2020 Potential 15.9 6.6

9
2050 Potential 14.7 4.4
Sources: 1) De Beer et al. 1998, 2) Energy and Environmental Profile of the US Iron and
Steel Industry. July 1996. Prepared by Energetics for the US DOE (report), 3) DJ Gielen &
AWN Van Dril, 4) Micahelis P. 2000, 5) Present and Future use of energy in the Canadian
Steel Industry. CAN for the mineral and Energy Technology. March 1993, 6) Worrell et al.,
1999. 7) Price et al. 2002, 8) Worrel et al. 1997, 9) Jochem, and Bradke (1996)
The adjusted specific energy consumption trends for industrialized and

developing regions is estimated (figure 13) composed of current, best
practices and potentials based on the literature research from table 4 and the
assumptions stated in the methodology: convergence of SEC for regions and
1/3 target value of 2050 potential for 2100. The fitted equations are presented
in appendix 3.
60
50
Specific Energy Consumption (GJ/t)
40
Primary Energy
Fuel use for BOF steel

in Developing Regions
30
Fuel use for BOF steel
in Industrialized Regions
20
10
Fuel use for EAF steel
Fuel use for EAF steel in Developing Regions
in Industrialized Regions
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Figure 13: Resulting specific energy consumption (GJ/t) trends for developing and
industrialized regions for integrated and secondary steel routes based on the literature values
from table 3 (also plotted).
35 11/12/2003
Thermodynamic minimum: SEC development must be limited by the process

thermodynamic minimum, which is based on the Gibbs free energy for
reducing hematite (Fe2O3), the most frequently occurring type of iron-oxide,
into 2Fe + 3/2O2. The use of Gibbs free energy represents the maximum
amount of work that can be obtained when a compound is converted to it
chemical elements, thus providing the absolute minimum and non-technology
dependent thermodynamic minimum. For primary steel the thermodynamic
minimum is approximately 6.6 GJ/t, assuming that all iron can be recovered
and not taking into account iron composition (i.e. impurities), and shaping into
desired product. A similar approach for secondary steel, scrap process of
producing steel, the energy to be applied is less than 0.1 GJ/t [de Beer, 1998].
There are some drawbacks and limitations that are not taken into account in
these assumptions that affect the various changes in the industry: declining
ore grade and increase pellet production, which will increase energy
requirements in the process, economics slowdown in automobile and
construction can decrease the consumption and production of steel, structural
change within industries, plus the environmental regulations. Lastly, all these
are felt at country level, and it is uncertain how this affects the developments
at the regional level.
Assumptions on the technologies and their development are addressed in the

following section.
5.1.2 Characterization of energy technologies
As mentioned in chapter 2 the iron and steel process can be generally divided
in 5 steps, and two main production routes. There has been a lot of
technological research and implementation to reduce the energy intensity
within the steps, thus creating new processes that could replace or skip the
existing ones to achieve this goal.
Throughout the iron/steel making process there are many places where
energy efficiency can be implemented, thus reducing energy consumption and
emissions. The techniques than can be implemented to accomplish this can
be generally categorized in two levels: a) available energy saving techniques
that are either commercially available or in use at specific locations and, b)
potential long-term energy saving techniques which are still at a development
stage or in limited use.
Here we will enlist some of the techniques (table 6) that can be applied to the
two most prominent steel making routes: integrated primary steel and electric
arc minimills, and new alternatives within these routes.
The future energy potentials that are used for the projection of energy
consumption mentioned previously in this chapter are based on the
implementation of a combination of these techniques. The techniques will be
36 11/12/2003
categorized within the respective process (i.e. ironmaking, casting, etc.);

following the initial 5 general steps in the iron and steel production.
Besides the energy efficiency that can be achieved in the 5 steps for iron and
steel making there are also overall measures that can be applied to both
production routes and do not fall in any of the mention steps (referred to as
“Other energy efficiency measures” in Table 6).
Table 6: Available and Potential Energy Efficiency Measures; adapted from Worrell et
al., 1999.
Overall Measures (apply to both primary and secondary plants)
1
Preventive maintenance
1
Energy monitoring and management systems
1
Variable speed drives for flue gas control, pump and fans
1, 2
Cogeneration
2, 3, 5
Waste Heat Recovery
Treatment of raw material
Iron Ore Preparation (Sintermaking)
1
Sinter plant heat recovery
1
Use of waste fuels in the sinter plant
1
Reduction of air leakage
1
Increasing bed depth
1
Improved process control
Coke Making
1
Coal moisture control
1
Programme heating
1
Variable speed drive coke oven gas compressors
1
Coke dry quenching
2
Improve available
2, 5
Jumbo coke reactor
2
Continuous coking and syngas production
2
Closing of coke batteries
Iron making measures
Available Advanced technologies
Iron making – Blast Furnace Iron making – smelting
1, 2, 5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Pulverized coal injection COREX
1 1, 5
Injection of natural gas FINEX
1, 2, 5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Top pressure recovery turbines Cyclone Converter Furnace (CCF)
1 1, 2, 3, 4
Recovery of blast furnace gas DIOS
1, 2 1, 2, 3, 4
Hot blast stove automation AISI
1 1, 2, 3, 4
Recuperator on the hot blast stove HISmelt
1, 2 , 2, 3, 4
Improved blast furnace control Romelt
,3
Jupiter
Iron making – Direct reduction
3, 4, 5
MIDREX
3
Arex
4
HyL I and III
4
Fior
4
FINMET
4, 5
Iron carbide
4, 5
Circored
4, 5
FASTMET
4
INMETCO
4, 5
SL/RN
4, 5
Cicofer
Steel making measures
Available Advanced technologies
Steel making – Basic Oxygen Furnace Steel making –Secondary steelmaking
1 1
BOF gas & sensible heat recovery IHI process
1 1
Variable speed drive on ventilation fans Contiarc process
Steel making –Electric Arc Furnace (Secondary Comelt process1
1,2,4, 5
steelmaking) Steel making – Scrap based process
1, 2 3
Improved process control Von RollFinger
1 3
Flue gas monitoring control HYLSA
1 3
Transformer efficiency measures Combination Shaft Furnace
1 3
Bottom stirring/gas injection K-ES
1 3
Foamy slag practices KS
1, 2 3
Oxy-fuel burners/lancing KVA
1,2
Post-combustion
37 11/12/2003
1
Eccentric bottom tapping
1
Direct current arc furnaces
1, 2
Scrap preheating
1
Consteel process
1
Fuchs shaft furnace
1, 2
Twin shell DC arc furnace
2
Foamy slag practice
Casting
1, 2, 5
Adopt continuous casting
1
Efficient ladle preheating
2, 3, 4
Near-net-shape casting
1, 3, 4
Thin slab casting
1, 3, 4
Strip casting
3, 4
Spray casting
Rolling and Finishing
1, 2
Hot charging
1, 2
Recuperative burners in the reheating furnace
1
Controlling oxygen levels and variable speed drives on combustion air fans
1
Process control in the hot strip mill
1
Insulation of furnaces
1
Energy efficient drives in the hot rolling mill
1
Waste heat recovery from cooling water
1
Heat recovery on the annealing line
1
Automated monitoring % targeting system
1
Reduced steam use in the pickling line
Other energy efficiency measures that (not taken into account for SEC reduction)
4
Recycling - By-product and scrap
Slag, sludge and dust (BF and BOF)
Slag, sludge (EAF)
Mill scall, sludge and pickle liquor (Rolling and finishing)
4
Recycling – Obsolete scrap
Municipal waste
Appliances
Automotive
Containers
Construction
1 2 3 4 5
Sources: Worrell et al., 1999; IEA, 2000; de Beer et al., 1998; Steel Technological Roadmap, 1998; Daniëls and
Moll, 1998;
An example of the application of certain energy saving techniques has been

measured in a steelmaking plant in Chile (Huachipato), where some of the
techniques and technologies mentioned before have impacted the SEC
[Infoacero, 2003]. The specific energy consumption for the plant has been
reduced from approximately 9.7 Gcal/tls (40 GJ/tls, tone of liquid steel) to
almost 6.2 Gcal/tls (25 GJ/tls) in the past three decades. Some of the
improvements done to the plant include heating ovens, thermal insulation,
better loads, reduction of fuel use, continuous casting among others
[infoacero, 2003].
In his report, de Beer [1998] points that a combination of the techniques

mentioned in table 6 can bring down the current best practice specific energy
consumption (SEC) of 19 GJ/trs to 12.5 GJ/trs assuming the energy-efficient
techniques become available before 2020 for the integrated steel route and
from 7 GJ/trs down to 3.5 GJ/trs for the electric arc furnace.
New steel production technologies have a great impact on the productions. In

terms of available scrap for EAF if the projected production occurs then a shift
towards DRI and smelting reduction technologies (SRT) will happen in order
for the EAF share to increase as it has been assumed. DRI has been
commercialized since the 1970s but has not achieved a penetrated the
market due to technical problems (e.g. high reactivity of solid-state DRI) and
high prices of natural gas [Nill, 2003]. According to de Beer et al. [1998] and
38 11/12/2003
Nill [2003] smelting reduction technology’s first commercial application,

COREX, and strip casting are likely to be widely available within two decades,
although the technology is currently in use, due to the assumption that a
reduction in the number of steps will have an advantage since it will minimize
costs.
Nill [2003] mentions how minimills producers seem favorable to use SRT for
producing high quality steel, where COREX, among the various SRT, has a
best start for its cost reductions due to economies of scale and learning
effects.
Caution must be taken, since for these techniques and measures can only be
implemented if they are economically viable [Worrell et al., 1999]. To assess
the economic feasibility involves the inclusion of many factors that are outside
the scope of this report, as it only takes into account energy projection based
on technological development assuming the energy saving potentials reported
by various studies can be reachable within that timeframe.
5.2 Paper and Pulp Sector
5.2.1 Assumptions and projections
Structural Changes: The FAO aggregates the paper and paperboard products
into three main commodities: Newsprint, printing and writing and paper and
paperboard, where:
Newsprint: Uncoated paper, unsized (or only slightly sized), containing at least 60%
(percentage of fibrous content) mechanical wood pulp, usually weighing not less that 40
g/square m and generally not more than 60 g/square m of the type used mainly for the
printing of newspapers.
Other Printing + writing: Paper, except newsprint, suitable for printing and business purposes,
writing, sketching, drawing, etc., made from a variety of pulp blends and with various finishes.
Included are such papers as those used for books and magazines, wallpaper base stock, box
lining and covering calculator paper, rotonews, duplicating, tablet or block, label, lithograph,
banknote, tabulating card stock, bible or imitation bible, stationary, manifold, onionskin,
typewriter, poster, etc.
Other paper + paperboard: Includes construction paper and paperboard, household and
sanitary paper, special thin paper, wrapping and packaging paper and paperboard and other
paper and paperboard not elsewhere specified.
We have maintained this main classification due to the difference in energy

consumption among them, as seen in table 2.
Although for the past decades the share of this aggregation in the total paper
production has changed (figure 14) especially between newsprint and printing
39 11/12/2003
and writing paper, we have kept the same share from the base year for their
projections (for each VLEEM region).
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Newsprint Printing+Writing Other+Paperboard
Figure 14: World share of newsprint, printing and writing paper and, other and paperboard for
the past 4 decades.
Specific energy consumption: The production structure has a major influence

on the energy consumption of the whole sector. Energy consumption is hard
to establish because the energy consumption of a given country strongly
depends on whether, for example, large amounts of pulp are imported or
exported [Andrew, 1985]. An important area of energy efficiency is recycling,
but its assessment is complex since the recovered fiber is product, site and
time-dependent [Martin et al., 2000].
From the structural aggregation made, several energy consumption curves

were obtained from potentials from literature (table 7). The way in which the
trends were created followed two steps: 1) create trend for the three
aggregate commodities for industrialized countries (figure 15) and, 2) based
on SEC difference for the whole sector between industrialized and developing
countries the curves for developing countries were estimated (figure 16). The
fitted equations are presented in appendix 3.
Table 7: Outcome of literature review on current and future specific energy consumption for
the paper and pulp sector
Whole Newsprint Other and Printing and
Reference Year Country Sector (GJ/t) paperboard writing
(GJ/t) (GJ/t) (GJ/t)
1a 1993 Average 30.85 34.25 37.55
b 20.80 23.6 26.8
2 1994 Average
28.15 30.95 34.15
1970 49.90
3 1994 USA 39.60
2010 33.30
2000 24.21 23.57 24.10
c
4 7.06 11.81 14.92
40 11/12/2003
2020 18.67 23.57 24.10

6.84 11.81 14.92
2050 18.67 23.57 24.10
6.84 11.81 14.92
1990 20.87
2020 14.49
EU Potential
5 12.70
2050 9.17
EU Potential
7.26
1995 21.00
2005 18.90
6 2010 Potential 17.80
2015 17.00
2020 16.20
1972 44.39
1995 34.69
2010 30.76
7 Potential US
2010 29.23
2020 23.40
2020 21.30
1973 Japan 25.25
1982 19.60
1982 India 1014.00
8 1982 Pakistan 54.18
1982 Indonesia 45.78
1982 Thailand 23.10
1982 Colombia 45.70
Sources: 1) De Beer et al. 1998, 2) de Jong, 1998 (various sources), 3) Martin el al., 2000, 4)
Hekkert and Worrell, 1997, 5) Radgen, and Tönsing, 1996, 6) Schlesinger, 1999, 7) Ruth et
al., 2000, 8) Ewing Andrew, 1985.
Note: a) added the pulping, bleaching and drying from de Jong to estimate total, b) lower SEC
based on mechanical pulping and higher SEC based on chemical pulping, c) for integrated
and non-integrated paper mill
60
50
Fuel use for paper in Industrialized Regions
40
Primary Energy
30
20
10
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Printing and Writing Ind. Paperboard and other Ind.
NewsPrint Ind. Ref Potentials
industrialized regions, and reference values and potentials for the whole sector.
41 11/12/2003
60
50
Fuel use for paper in Developing Regions
40
Primary Energy
30
20
10
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Printing and Writing Dev. Paperboard and other Dev.

NewsPrint Dev. Ref Potentials
developing regions, and reference values and potentials for the whole sector.
Problems related to the paper sector as presented by de Jong [1998] involve:

differentiation between generated energy and purchased energy, conversion
factors for steam and electricity for the various countries and all years, how to
convert electricity from waste, renewable or nuclear.
Recycling and secondary fiber: As table 2 shows, the difference between SEC
for recovery pulp from waste paper and the other pulping process ranges from
3.9-16.3 GJ/t. This difference might have an impact on the overall SEC of the
sector as recovered waste paper rate is at 27% worldwide. The inclusion of
recycling into the study would therefore be very important, however, this was
not possible due to lack of data: the secondary fiber, which is then mixed with
virgin paper, is hard to account along the paper product routes for all the
world regions.
Although secondary fiber can be partially used in most paper types, mainly
production of newsprint, tissue and liner, there is little information on the share
of secondary fiber required (used) to make the various paper products;
therefore even harder to estimate into which paper product SEC curve it
belongs to. As Gunn and Hannon [1983] state many of the constraints relate
to the minimum amount of virgin fiber that must be in the final product to
assure quality, along with the respective availability of recycled paper and
virgin paper. Also, paper fibers cannot be recycled indefinitely thus the
systems must be replenished with virgin fibers [Lundmark, 2003].
42 11/12/2003
5.2.2 Characterization of energy technologies
When implementing technology changes, energy efficiency is not the only

variable to take into account: the rate of production, runnability (how paper
goes through the machine), and paper quality are of importance. Faster speed
(range between 1000-2000 m/min) means increased production, but this is
determined by the drying rate. All through the process the paper quality
(depending on the type) must be maintained, basic weight, thickness and
strength. The chosen technologies must improve these other variables. Also,
the type of energy carrier (wood chips, natural gas) and the method of
generation (black liquor recovery boiler or CHP plant) has an effect on the
energy consumption and technology used [de Beer, 1999].
Andrew [1985] presents some areas where achievements have been made in
the sector: a) reduction in actual energy consumption together with energy re-
use and recovery, b) increase in the amount of energy generated internally
from waste and, c) cogeneration of electric power and low pressure steam.
Such achievements have continued in boiler upgrading, continuous digesters,

increased use of biomass used (bark, sawdust, and wood waste), wider range
of wood species and recycled pulp and waste paper [Martin et al., 2000;
APEC, 2000; Lundmark, 2003]. In the drying process by reducing heat loss,
using less air, and increasing heat extraction, also electricity end-use
improvements in pumping, air handling and lighting [Nilsson, 1996]. These
developments of technological changes have been related to integrated mill
development, continuous manufacturing processes, closed production
processes, and increase of wastepaper use [Lundmark and Söderholm,
2003].
There is the sense that more is possible as energy efficiency has mainly been
achieved through retrofits, retirement of less efficient facilities and better
housekeeping practices rather than technological innovations in the industry
[Ruth et al., 2000].
The compiled list (table 8) shows the technologies that can be implemented
as new processes or retrofit in the paper and pulp sector. Only advanced
technologies with high energy savings are presented.
Table 8: Available and Potential Energy Efficiency Technology and Measures; adapted
from Martin et al., 2000.
Process Technology/Measure Process Technology/Measure
Raw Material Bar-type chip screens Papermaking High consistency forming
Chip conditions Extended nip press
Improved screening Direct drying cycling firing
Fine slotted wedge wire basket Reduced air
requirements
Condebelt drying
Infrared profiling
Dry sheet forming
Mechanical Pulping Refiner improvements General measure Energy-efficient lightning
Biopulping Pinch analysis
Thermo-mechanical RTS (Short Residence Time, Efficient steam production Boiler maintenance
43 11/12/2003
pulping elevetated temp, high speed) Steam trap maintenance

LCR (low consistency refiner) Automatic steam trap
Thermopulp monitoring
Super pressurized Condensate return
groundedwood pulping
Improvements in the chemi-
thermomechanical pulping
Chemical pulping Continuous digesters Other measures Increased use of recycled
Continuous digesters paper
modifications Combined heat and
Batch digester modifications power systems
Chemical Recovery Falling film black liquor Advanced technologies Alcohol based solvent
evaporation pulping pulping
Tampella recovery system Black liquor gasifier + gas
turbine
Pre-treatment of
incoming pulp into drying
section
Bleaching Extended cooking Advanced technologies – Infrared drying
Oxygen predelignification papermaking Condensing belt drying
Dry-sheet-forming
Impulse drying
Airless drying
Press drying
Air impingement drying
Steam impingement
drying
Sources: Martin et al., 1999; de Beer et al., 1998, Nilsson, 2000
Martin’s study [2000], based on technical and economical viability estimated

that some of these technologies and measures would allow having a total
present-day effective reduction of 6.3-6.5 GJ/t based on 1994 energy use for
the US.
Future directions in the sector tend for new energy saving process
technologies, e.g. digesters or pulp dryers, process heat generation analysis
and development of biomass-based cogeneration systems as the market is
positive as biomass is available on-site [Nilsson, 2002]; more efficient steam
distribution, avoidance of steam in stock preparation, pressing at higher
consistency and more efficient electric appliances as pumps. [de Beer et al.,
1999; ITT Industries]; kraft pulping prevailing due to high quality and Fluidized
Bed Combustion as it accommodates a wider variety of fuels [APEC, 2000].
Energy management will still be a main variable as it has been estimated to
achieve a total energy saving from 5 to 15% [BE&K, 2002].
The EU R&D programme offer recent and current projects that could lead
benefits to several processes as electricity reduction in the preparation of pulp
fibers, energy efficiencies of pressing and drying technologies, dewatering
processes, and exergy and pinch analysis of kraft pulp [Pilavachi, 1996]. Also,
other energy conservation measures and their detailed analysis is provided by
UNIDO [1993] in the area preventing electric failures, preventive
maintenance, paper braking prevention, effective use of white water,
improvement of blanket washing equipment, acceleration of press dewatering,
and evaporation in dryer.
Increase of paper recycling also shows benefits, as it provides employment,

reduced costs of raw materials, reduced solid waste thus reduced cost of
disposal, limited exploitation of natural resources, technological requirements
for recycling being low [Sharma et al. 1997]. Cogeneration has been widely
44 11/12/2003
used in the industry [Nguyen and Chern, 1979], although it still faces
institutional barriers as fear of regulation of a utility, inability to sell excess
power, high cost of backup power, and cheap commercial electricity, thus
making self-generated electricity less competitive than purchased electricity.
It is important to recall Worrell et al.’s [1999] caution on economically feasible

for the implementation of technologies, factor that is outside the scope of the
report.
If environmental and climate concerns, as expressed in the introduction, are

on the right track then Collins’s [1994] Kondratieff cycle theory would lead to
the use of technologies that are expected to increase energy efficiency and
emissions reduction in the pulp and paper processes. Along these
technologies Collins mentions how biotechnology is being introduced in key
processes of paper/pulp production, i.e., the use of enzymes in bio-pulping
which have the potential to increase up to 80% the energy saving, chemical
bleaching processes, de-inking technology and waste-water treatment
systems.
As mentioned before, for the presented technological based development to

occur, the technologies must firstly be economically feasible. This itself is
complex enough as it is dependent on the technology choice (decision-
making) of the industry. As Ofori-Amoah [1993] points out, the adoption of a
technology is determined by regional differences in resources, production
specialization, industrial histories, and development of the market.
Technology diffusion and consumer acceptance might, in the future,

contribute greatly to the development of technologies. Studies such as Ofori-
Amoah [1993] and Stier [1983], through their analysis of the twin-wire
papermaking machine and the sulfate pulping process, could serve as a basis
for a deeper analysis of the mentioned potential technologies and their
diffusion and implementation via behavioral decision making models and
dynamic equilibrium diffusion equation respectively for the upcoming decades,
if not the century. In special for the paper industry, consumer acceptance has
had and will have an impact on the technological changes. The selection of
products which are environmentally friendly in terms of process and energy
used in the process could bring more variables as green electricity (wind,
solar, nuclear), and the environmental image to the papermaking industry
[Luukkanen, 2003]; as well as lead to newer regulations (e.g. eco-labeling).
45 11/12/2003
6 PROJECTIONS
The previous chapters have dealt with the industry and its processes, the
technology options for efficiency improvement, the related saving potentials,
and lastly projections of the physical activity and energy consumption.
By applying the methodology mentioned under the respective assumptions for

both indicators, the level of activity and level of energy use, projections for the
primary energy demand can be made.
This section deals with the resulting projections for the technology-based
scenario and the underlying drivers that accompany these results as
population and GDP growth, technological changes and consumption
behavior among others. It must be noted that this scenario could be seen as
Business as usual (BAU).
6.1 Demographics and Economics
Of the key inputs under VLEEM methodology (figure 3) are the population and
GDP forecast. Table 9 presents the sources that provided this data. For the
population forecast the IPPC SRES B2 scenario is used (SRES, 2000).
Although official forecast is for 8 world regions, downscaled country level data
is used and grouped within the VLEEM regions.
For the GDP projections some limitations where encounter regarding

available information. SRES [2000] states how there are no ‘long-term’
economic development scenarios in literature, and that longest term is usually
referred up to a decade. Unlike with population GDP forecast for the IPCC
SRES B2 scenario were not available during the realization of this thesis, thus
own estimates were done based on available sources. These are shown on
table 10.
Table 9: Time series data needed for projections (level of activity) for the Iron & Steel and
Paper & Pulp sectors.
Source Information
CIECIN, 2002 The GDP and population scenarios until 2100 are from the
IPCC Socioeconomic Data from (IPCC Data distribution
Centre)7. The downscaled GDP were not available at the
moment.
TIMER Model GDP forecast for US, Canada and Japan until 2100. (For the
(RIVM, NL) rest of the countries a historical average growth was taken)
Own estimates The GDP values until 2100 are estimated from known sources
until the year 2030 and thereafter own estimates.
7
Available at http://sres.ciesin.columbia.edu/tgcia/
46 11/12/2003
Table 10: GDP growth (% p.a.) assumption for the VLEEM regions based on estimates
from IEA World Energy Outlook 2002, Energy Balance non-OECD
Region 2000 2010 2030 2050 2100

EU-25 2.3% 2.0% 1.4% 0.9%
Former USSR 1.5% 2.2% 2.4% 1.9%
North America 1.6% 1.0% 1.7% 0.7%
Latin America 1.7% 2.0% 1.4% 0.6%
Africa Sub-Sahara 0.9% 1.2% 1.6% 1.9%
North Africa & 1.0% 1.4% 1.5% 2.0%
Middle East
South Asia 3.6% 3.4% 2.4% 2.3%
China 5.0% 3.7% 2.4% 1.5%
Asia Pacific OECD 1.8% 2.0% 1.3% 2.0%
Other Asia Pacific 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 1.8
Under the B2 scenario the population increases to about 9.4 billion people by
2050 and to about 10.4 billion by 2100 (figure 17). Further explained in SRES
(2000) the scenario is characterized by a continuation of historical trends,
reflecting faster decline in world fertility and mortality rates. Industrialized
countries will have a slower growth than today, as a slow down in population
growth for the rest of the world.
Frmr USSR
12000 North Africa and

Middle East
10000 Africa Sub-Sahara
Other Asia Pacific

Population (mill)
8000
South Asia
6000
Latin America
4000 China
2000 Asia Pacific OECD
EU-25
0
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
2055
2065
2075
2085
2095
North America
Year
Figure 17: Population growth bases on the IPCC SRES B2 scenario for the different VLEEM
regions.
47 11/12/2003
6.2 Iron & Steel
6.2.1 Production
Steel production will continue to increase for the time frame (figure 18), where
the biggest increase is seen in China and South Asia (due to India). Smaller
developing regions like Other Asia Pacific, Africa and Middle East start to
produce more after 2050 relative to their steel production today. Table 11
shows the projected steel production between industrialized and developing
regions and the respective percentage rate between 2000 and 2020, 2020
and 2050, and 2050 and 2100. A comparison against other projections is
shown in table 12 showing a relative similitude in the results.
Table 11: Production of steel between industrialized and developing regions

2000 2020 2050 2100
Global 849 1266 2200 3502
Production (Mt)
% p.a. 2.46% 2.46% 1.18%
Industrialized 486 578 632 620
regions
% p.a. 0.95% 0.31% -0.04%
Developing 363 688 1568 2882
regions
% p.a. 4.47% 4.26% 1.65%
4000 Other Asia Pacific
3500 China

Steel Production (Mt)
South Asia
2500
North Africa and

2000 Middle East
Latin America
1500
Asia Pacific OECD

1000
Frmr USSR
500
North America
0
1971
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
EU-25
Year
Figure 18: Historical and projected world steel production for the TECHNOLOGY-BASED
Scenario for the various VLEEM regions.
48 11/12/2003
Table 12: Comparison of projected world steel production values between VLEEM and
other outlooks
Reference 2010 2020 2025 2030
VLEEM 999 Mt 1266 Mt 1421 Mt 1585 Mt
Hidalgo 1190 Mt 1316 Mt
Hatch 1052 Mt ~1400 Mt
Beddows
Comparing the last 30 years (1970-2000) to the projected production (until

2100) the former have been relatively stable in the 650-849 Mt range whereas
the latter show a continuous increase until 3500 Mt, four times more than
2000 levels, again mainly due to China and India. This increase translates into
apparent world consumption per capita of approximately 425 kg respectively,
while in the year 2000 it was around 140 kg. To get a feel, in 2001 IISI
reported the apparent consumption for Canada was 489 kg, US 372 kg, the
average for Europe-15 366 kg, and Japan 574 kg, so this 425 kg is probable.
It must be noted that a change in the trade assumption might have an
important effect on the production rate and the shares per region.
The weighted apparent consumption development (figure 19) for North

America, EU-25 show a slower rate of increased consumption from past
levels and the rest of the regions a faster increase in their apparent
consumption. Africa Sub-Sahara has had a decline in steel consumption per
capita in the past decades, but due to our increase consumption vs. wealth
assumption and the effect of South Africa in the region there is a noticeable
change towards increasing consumption.
EU-25
910
810 North America
710 Frmr USSR

App. Con per cap (kg)
610 Asia Pacific

OECD
510
Latin America
410
North Africa and
Middle East
310
South Asia
210
Africa Sub-Sahara
110
China
10
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Other Asia Pacific
Year
Figure 19: Weighted apparent consumption per capita for the different VLEEM regions.
49 11/12/2003
6.2.2 Structural Changes: EAF and BOF
From the extensive literature review no studies that have implemented scrap
model [Van Vuuren, 1995; Ruth, 2000 Michaelis, 2000; and Hidalgo, 2003]
report scrap limitations in any of their scenarios. Also, only IPTS reports
[Hidalgo, 2003] detailed structural change in terms of how technologies will
develop the others just the general fraction of secondary steel production.
Comparing the projected results the IPTS values (for the structure and
technological development) are similar to our EAF technology penetration and
overall share (figure 20).
0.70
0.60
BOF World
0.50
0.40
Share
0.30
0.20
EAF World
0.10
0.00
1997
2027
2007
2017
Time
Figure 20: Comparing EAF development between VLEEM (left) and IPTS (right).
Note ISW (integrated steel) and MMS (electric arc steel) are the compared variables; MMS
includes old and new technologies. This share reflects the global situation.
Under the projected production, EAF and BOF share, and energy specific
development for the different regions absolute primary energy consumption is
obtained, shown in figure 21. Again, China and South Asia are projected to
have sizeable energy consumption due to the estimated production.
6.2.3 Energy Projections

Primary Energy Consumption Total
30000 for Regions for steel production
Other Asia Pacific

25000
China
Africa Sub-Sahara
Primary Energy Total (PJ)
20000
South Asia
15000 North Africa and Middle

East
Latin America
10000
Asia Pacific OECD
Frmr USSR
5000
North America
0 EU-25
2005
2010
2015
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
2020
2055
Year
Figure 21: Primary Energy Consumption for steel under the TECHNOLOGY-BASED
Scenario for the various VLEEM regions.
50 11/12/2003
6.2.4 Effects of Efficiency and Structure
To understand better the effects of efficiency and structural change on energy

consumption the following calculations were made:
• Keep structure frozen to base year while maintaining specific energy

consumption trend for the regions.
• Keep efficiency frozen to the base year while maintaining the sector
structure shift for the regions.
• Keep both structure and efficiency frozen to the base year.
The obtained results are presented in figure 22. Structural changes have a
lesser impact than efficiency. This impact is mainly due to the contribution of
energy efficiency on developing regions as China and Other Asia, which by
the year 2050 the SEC is reduce by almost 50 per cent 2000 levels. Due to
this continuous energy efficiency the energy demand tends to stabilize at
double the base year energy demand levels for the iron and steel sector.
When structure and efficiency progress as projected the total primary energy
demand for the sector levels at 1½ base year levels with a minor decrease at
the end of the period. At this point only the base case technological scenario
is presented, thus the energy consumption will result lower if the best possible
scenario were projected as presented in section 2.1.2.
90000
80000
Frozen Efficiency &
70000 Structure - Total Energy (PJ)
60000 Frozen efficiency - Total

Energy (PJ)
50000
Frozen Structure - Total
40000 Energy (PJ)
30000 Total Energy (PJ)
20000
10000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Year
Figure 22: Consideration of the efficiency and structural change on world total primary energy
demand in the steel sector.
This type of study will allow observing, under our assumptions, which factor
contributes more to the projected energy demand of the sector, and it could
possibly give an insight on what kind of policies must be looked into for further
improvement in the sector.
51 11/12/2003
6.2.5 Energy use by fuel
An important part of the energy consumption is the distinction between fossil

fuels and electricity as energy carrier.
An approximation of this fuel distinction is made by getting general electricity

and fossil fuel percentages within the routes mentioned in the literature (see
table 13). We have kept this assumption fixed for the timeframe although the
fuel mix distribution might change depending on the specific technologies
used. Figure 23 shows the share of the projected energy use in terms of
primary energy from fossil fuels and electricity.
Table 13: Share of fossil fuel and electricity expressed as percentages of primary energy.
consumption expressed in primary energy assumes a conversion efficiency of 32%.
Reference Fossil Electricity
Integrated route
Worrell (1999) 81% 18%
Patel (1998) 76% 23%
USED 80% 19%
Secondary route
Worrell (1999) 28% 71%
Patel (1998) 6% 93%
USED 25% 74%
Note: f = fossil fuel use (final energy) e = electricity (final energy) Æ p = f + e/32% and
share_fossil = f/p; share_elec = (e/32%)/p

by Fuel
30000
25000 Energy Use

(Electricity)
20000
15000
Energy Use
(Fossil)
10000
5000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Year
Figure 23: Energy projection of total primary energy and fuel share (PJ) for the Iron & Steel
sector for the timeframe.
52 11/12/2003
6.3 Paper & Pulp
6.3.1 Production
Paper production will continue to increase for the time frame (figure 24). Until
mid-century North America, Europe and China are seen to be the biggest
paper product producer in the world. In the second half of the 21st century
South Asia is projected to have a bigger share as EU, North America and
China stabilize their production. The rest of the regions will increase their
paper production.
In contrast to the iron and steel trend, the historical production for paper
(figure 24) seems to follow an increasing rate. By 2100 the paper production
is estimated to be around 2200 Mt, about seven times more than the 320 Mt
in 2000; translating into a world apparent consumption per capita of 304 kg.
The value for the year 2000 was around 55 kg. For 2000 North America
showed an apparent consumption of 335 kg, Asia Pacific OECD of 221 kg,
and Europe-25 of 156 kg (possibly higher if only EU-15), thus it seems
possible to reach 304 kg by 2100.
A projection comparison is shown in table 14 (only the United States),

showing an overestimation of the VLEEM Model, the possible causes for this
are further explained in the discussion section. Table 15 shows the projected
paper production between industrialized and developing regions and the
respective percentage rate between 2000 and 2020, 2020 and 2050, and
2050 and 2100.
2500000 Other Asia Pacific

Production paper & paperboard ('000 TM)
China
South Asia
1500000 North Africa and

Middle East
Latin America
1000000
Asia Pacific OECD
Frmr USSR
500000
North America
EU-25
0
1971
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Time
Figure 24: Historical and projected world paper production for the TECHNOLOGY-BASED
(BAU) Scenario for the various VLEEM regions.
53 11/12/2003
Table 14: Comparison of projected paper production values (Mt) for the United States
between VLEEM and other outlooks
Reference 2010 2020 2025 2050
VLEEM 127 139 144 167
Ince, 1998 113 120 130 158
Table 15: Production of paper between industrialized and developing regions

2000 2020 2050 2100
Global 321 610 1154 2217
Production (Mt)
% p.a. 4.51% 2.97% 1.84%
Industrialized 245 356 443 489
regions
% p.a. 2.26% 0.82% 0.20%
Developing 75 254 711 1729
regions
% p.a. 11.82% 6.00% 2.86%
Figure 25 presents the apparent consumption per capita for the VLEEM
regions. In comparison with other studies for the US our results show a 0.4%
increase in per capita consumption whereas Nilsson [1996] projects a 0.6%
for the 1990-2040 frames. Meinnander [2003] projected the world apparent
consumption for the year 2015 at around 62Kg per capita, whereas our
approach resulted in a world apparent consumption of 72Kg for the same
year.
Structural change within the industry has contributed to the growth of the
paper market in the EU until the 1990s [Clark, 1990] that might continue
afterwards and reaching other regions outside the EU. This structural change
has been characterized by expansion of capacity (increase and protect
market share), integration (pulp producing and papermaking), mergers and
take-overs, and ownership (varying by countries).
54 11/12/2003
North America
500.00
EU-25
450.00
400.00 Asia Pacific OECD

Apparent Consumption per cap
350.00 China
300.00
Latin America
250.00
South Asia
200.00
150.00 Frmr USSR
100.00
North Africa and
50.00 Middle East
Other Asia Pacific
0.00
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Africa Sub-Sahara
Year
Figure 25: Historical and projected weighted apparent consumption of paper per capita for
the different VLEEM regions.
6.3.2 Energy Projections
Likewise as with steel, under the projected production, the structural division
between the three commodities (newsprint, printing and writing, and other and
paperboard), and the energy specific development for the different regions
absolute primary energy consumption is obtained, shown in figure 26. Again,
China and South Asia are projected to have substantial energy consumption.

for Regions for paper production
25000
Frmr USSR

20000
Africa Sub-Sahara
Other Asia Pacific
15000
South Asia
Latin America
10000
China
Asia Pacific OECD
5000
EU-25
North America
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100
Year
Figure 26: Primary Energy Consumption for paper under the Technology-based Scenario for
the various VLEEM regions.
55 11/12/2003
Nilsson’s [2000] comment is that energy efficiency improvements in the future

will be determined by how saved heat and electricity will be valued by the
industry, and how fuels and electricity derived from biomass will be valued.
6.3.3 Effects of Efficiency
As in the steel case the influence due to efficiency was analyzed by keeping
efficiency frozen to the base year while maintaining the sector structure for the
regions.
From the obtained results, figure 27, one can observe the steep increase of
energy demand if efficiency is frozen at 2000 levels in accordance with the
production increase to meet the projected steel consumption. The impact of
efficiency is even stronger after mid century, mainly due to developing
countries.
60000
50000 Total
Energy (PJ)
Primary Energy (PJ)
40000
30000 Frozen
efficiency -
Total
20000 Energy (PJ)
10000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Figure 27: Efficiency influence on world total primary energy demand in the paper and pulp
sector.
6.3.4 Energy use by fuel
An important part of the energy consumption is the distinction between fossil

fuels and electricity as energy carrier.
56 11/12/2003
An approximation of this fuel distinction is made by getting general electricity

and steam percentages within the routes mentioned in the literature (table
16). The values used were taken from table 2; assuming chemical pulping in
all processes. As with steel, this share is fixed for the timeframe although the
fuel mix distribution might change depending on the specific technologies
used (i.e. mechanical, chemical, secondary fiber, etc). Figure 28 shows the
share of the projected energy use in terms of primary energy from steam and
electricity.
Table 16: Share of fossil fuel and electricity expressed as percentages of primary energy for
the paper sector.
Reference Steam Electricity
Newsprint 56% 44%
Printing and Writing 58% 42%
Other and paperboard 60% 40%
consumption expressed in primary energy assumes a conversion efficiency of 32% and 90%
for steam. f = steam fuel use (final energy) e = electricity (final energy) Æ p = f/90% + e/32%
and share_fossil = (f/90%)/p; share_elec = (e/32%)/p
25000
Primary energy consumption (PJ)
20000
15000
Energy Use (Electricity)
Energy Use (Steam)
10000
5000
0
05
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
time
Figure 28: Energy projection of total primary energy and fuel share (PJ) for the paper sector
for the timeframe.
57 11/12/2003
7 DISCUSSION
The results presented in the previous chapter have various limitations due to
the methodology followed. Although some of these limitations have been
addressed in various sections, the further discussion is of importance to put
into perspective the results obtained. The main limiting factors as presented
throughout the report are:
a) population and GDP scenario

b) simplification of sector structure and specific energy consumption
c) trade
Population and GDP per capita scenario: As presented in the VLEEM

methodology, the main input for the projections is population and GDP to
estimate the apparent consumption for the regions.
In the report only one scenario was made for these two input data. This
limitation, lack in alternative scenarios, might have a significant impact on the
insights obtained from the material and energy projections made.
The current scenario is considered as a business as usual scenario. The

population scenario used assumes the current population number to increase
from current levels, and this increase is very significant in developing regions
in especial regions like China and South Asia.
A broader analysis can be made by changing the scenarios to different

population growth rate (or even decline). Similar limitations can be seen for
the GDP growth scenario assumed. Also, the current technological scenario
assumed is derived from past trends in technological developments; when
projected these technological change rates might be faster than estimated in
other scenarios (e.g. a climate change influenced or fuel shift scenario).
Critical analysis must still be taken due to the great uncertainty this input may
carry for the 100 years time frame.
Simplification of the sector structure and specific energy consumption: Both

the iron & steel and the paper & pulp industries display a choice of possible
routes for their different products (e.g. mechanical, chemical, or secondary
fiber for pulping and newsprint, sanitary, printing, packaging, and other paper
in papermaking). Within each of these processes there are various possible
technologies (e.g. Kraft being the most common in chemical pulping; scrap
based or DRI for EAF in the steelmaking, or casting and forming in the
product processing). This array of possible set-ups is valid with today’s
processes and potential ones.
As presented in the report, together with the industry structure, the SEC
trends are simplified to the most common routes and processes (e.g. EAF and
BOF for iron and steel, and newsprint, printing and other paper for paper and
pulp), consequently limiting the level of detail for the sector for the projected
58 11/12/2003
time frame. This simplification affects not only the material production
estimation but also affects the specific energy consumption of the process
(i.e. there is a SEC for each route thus dependent on the diverse combination
of processes).
As a result, these limitations may lead to the overestimation or

underestimation in the projected energy use and material production. An
underestimation in the iron and steel energy consumption is possible due to
the fact that if, in the future, the contribution of DRI and SR increases the SEC
of EAF might be higher than the reflected on the trend used. An
overestimation in the paper and pulp energy consumption is possible, given
that historically the newsprint paper share has been declining thus its
contribution to the total energy demand should be lower.
Moreover, this simplification might not represent the real conditions at country
or regional level. The SEC trends among countries within regions are very
different (e.g. US has higher SEC in the paper sector than most EU countries,
the same for developing regions) thus an underestimation is likely to occur in
regions where some countries have higher SEC (e.g. China’s BOF specific
energy consumption could be higher than the estimated SEC for developing
regions). Also, recycling rates vary greatly among regions and as seen in the
reported tables the SEC for recycling is significantly lower than for production
from virgin material resulting in changes in the energy consumption. As seen
the region generalization could be a drawback when considering the total
energy consumption at world level.
Though true that the lack of detail might result in an overestimation of material
and energy use, the timeframe studied is filled with uncertainties in regards to
the importance of the several routes or processes thus making the proposed
simplifications seem an acceptable starting point for projections.
Accounting for trade: To translate from consumption to production a term

representing trade must be included. There is a significant drawback in the
way trade was treated in our analysis, which should be further analyzed. As
apparent consumption increases for the regions (our main hypothesis),
production is estimated based on the projected apparent consumption and the
ratio of net import (import – export) to apparent consumption for the base
year. In this case the global trade should be balanced (imports = exports). In
other studies a term for inventory is included. The effects due to the inclusion
of this term are outside the current analysis.
Since a fixed ratio was assumed, when calculating the net import for the
regions (from the projected consumption and production) and consequently
adding this result to observe the global trade, we see that it is not balanced.
Furthermore, trade as taken from the source presents discrepancies (e.g. for
steel global exports are 2.2% higher than global imports for the year 2000; an
average of 4.4% per year is seen for the historical data used), still there is
now form to know the percentage difference in the values obtained from our
assumption.
59 11/12/2003
Given that our projections for production are based on the ratio of net imports
to apparent consumption for the base year (equation 3) and, as just
presented, the global net trade do not balance out, errors in the production
estimates are unavoidable. On the other hand, provided that the difference for
net trade is rather small (i.e. still at around 4.4% as in historical values) the
projections might still provide insight on material production as long as the
assumption that regions will maintain their current importing or exporting
tendencies is valid. Further research on alternative trade developments for the
regions might be beneficial for broader understanding of its influence under
the VLEEM methodology.
Lastly, there is the limitation of the non-use of economic factors. For the
presented technological based development to occur, the technologies must
first be economically feasible. This itself is complex enough as it is dependent
on the technology choice (decision-making) of the industry. As Ofori-Amoah
(1993) points out, the adoption of a technology is determined by regional
differences in resources, production specialization, industrial histories, and
development of the market aspects outside of the scope of the report. In
contrast with our main hypothesis, this could lead to further exploring varying
apparent consumption for different countries/regions (e.g. reduction of
apparent consumption as wealth increases; countries with different apparent
consumption trends, etc.).
As mentioned in section 2.3 other studies have addressed the projection of

material and energy use in other manners (taking into account some of our
limitations).
Although the mentioned studies are more detailed or follow a different

methodology, the projected results from our approach do not vary to a great
extent for the compared time period against the selected studies. Still,
questions arise whether these assumptions and methodology might be valid
until 2100 as material consumption (e.g. steel) might decrease or shift to other
materials (e.g. aluminum). Due to these factors it is hard to quantify whether
our projected values are overestimated or underestimated, although the
energy consumption comparison with IPTS [Hidalgo, 2003] for the steel sector
show an approximate overestimation of 3% for the year 2030.
60 11/12/2003
8 CONCLUSIONS
Based on the projected results the production of material and energy use for
the Iron & Steel and Paper & Pulp industries will continue to rise from today’s
levels. Efficiency is to contribute greatly to reducing the energy use if today’s
energy use is to be kept constant.
Still, if energy, consequently CO2 emissions, is to be reduced other scenarios

(i.e. CO2 tax, fuel shift, climate change based, etc.) should be further
explored.
Although a more simple approach was presented, in comparison with other

studies, the projected results are comparable to the other studies.
Nonetheless, the validity of the assumptions presented is questionable for the
time frame studied, the year 2100.
Also, for the presented approach a sensitivity analysis on the effect of

population, GDP, technological change, and industry structure should be
further studied.
The results highlight the importance of present research in development and

implementation of energy efficient technologies and their future potential.
While uncertainty is high in the projections for the time frame, further research
should address some of the mentioned limitations in the discussion.
61 11/12/2003
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10 APPENDIX
67 11/12/2003
Europe Ex-USSR North America Latin America Africa Sub-Sahara North Africa South Asia China Asia Pacific Other Asia
and Middle OECD Pacific
East
Albania Armenia Canada Antilles NLD South Africa Algeria Bangladesh China Australia Afghanistan
Germany Belarus United States Argentine Angola Egypt Bhoutan South Korea Brunei
Austria Azerbaiskan Bahamas Benin Libia India Japan Cambodia
Belgium Georgia Barbados Botswana Marocco Maldives New Zealand North Korea
Bosnia Kazakhstan Belize Burkina Faso Tunisia Nepal Fiji
Bulgaria Kirghizstan Bermudas Burundi Saudi Arabia Pakistan Indonesia
Cyprus Latonia Bolivia Cameron Bahrein Sri Lanka Kiribati
Croatia Moldavia Brasil Cap-Vert EAU Laos
Denmark Uzbekistan Chile Central Africa Irak Macao
Spain Russia Colombia Comores Iran Malasya
Finland Turkmenistan Costa Rica Congo Israel Mongolia
Greece Ukraine Cuba Ivory Coast Jordan Myanmar
Hungary Dominique Djibouti Kuwait Philipines
Ireland Ecuador Ethiopia Libano PNG
Island Granada Gabon Oman Salomon
Italy Guatemala Gambia Qatar Samoa
Luxemburg Guyana Ghana Syria Singapur
Macedonia Haití Guinee Yemen Tonga
Malt Honduras Guinee-Equator Vanuatu
Norway Jamaica Guinee-Bissau Vietnam
Netherlands México Kenya
Poland Nicaragua Lesotho
Portugal Panamá Liberia
Czech Rep. Paraguay Madagascar
Rumania Peru Malawi
UK Dominicans Rep. Mali
Serbia Saint Vincent Maurice
Slovakia Saint Lucie Mauritanie
Slovenia Salvador Monzambique
Sweden Surinam Namibia
Switzerland Trinidad Niger
Turkey Uruguay Nigeria
Latvia Venezuela Uganda
Lithuania Rwanda
Estonia Sao Tome
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Somalia
Sudan
Swaziland
Tanzania
Tchad
Togo
Zaire
Zambia
Zimbawe
Appendix 1: List of countries that represent the VLEEM regions. Countries in bold are representative countries for each region.
68 11/12/2003
Appendix 2: Fitted apparent consumption curves for the VLEEM regions.

Region Steel Paper
Latin America b b
ae x a=634, b=-8585 ae x a=641, b=-18939

d
ce x c=891 and d=-13235

China b b
ae a=634, b=-8585
x
ae x a=469, b=-11432
Frmr USSR b b
ae a=634, b=-8585
x
ae x a=744, b=-23451
North Africa & Middle East b
ax b a=1.85e-04, b=1.39
ae x a=634, b=-8585
South Asia b
ab x x c a=4.02E-6, b=0.99,
ae a=634, b=-8585
x
c= 1.87
North America b <21000
ae x a=634, b=-8585 ax b a=1.85e-04, b=1.39
>21000
d
ce c=538.18 and d=-20760

x
Asia Pacific OECD b <21000

ae x a=850, b=-9981 ax b a=1.85e-04, b=1.39
>21000
d
ce c=538.18 and d=-20760

x
EU-25 b <21000
ae x a=634, b=-8585 ax b a=1.85e-04, b=1.39
>21000
d
ce c=538.18 and d=-20760

x
Other Asia Pacific b <21000

ae x a=621, b=-5205 ax b a=1.85e-04, b=1.39
>21000
d
ce c=538.18 and d=-20760

x
Africa Sub-Sahara b <21000

ae x a=634, b=-8585 ax b a=1.85e-04, b=1.39
>21000
d
ce c=538.18 and d=-20760

x
Appendix 3: Equations for specific energy consumption

Industry – Process Industrialized Regions Developing Regions
Steel – Integrated b
ax a= 6.0E36, b=-10.75 b
ax a= 2.0E68, b=-20.23
Steel – EAF b
ax a= 1.0E125, b=-37.61 axb a= 5.0E127, b=-38.38
Paper – Newspaper axb a= 8.0E73, b=-21.99 axb a= 6.0E80, b=-24.06
Paper – Other and axb a= 3.0E53, b=-15.79 axb a= 4.0E61, b=-18.21
paperboard
Paper – other printing & axb a= 3.0E51, b=-15.17 axb a= 6.0E58, b=-17.36
writing
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Energy Consumption Scenario in The Industry Sector: Sector Extension and Analysis Related To The VLEEM Model (MScThesis Timo Marquez)

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Energy Consumption Scenario in The Industry Sector: Sector Extension and Analysis Related To The VLEEM Model (MScThesis Timo Marquez)

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EKV/607

Energy Consumption Scenario in the Industry Sector

A.T. Márquez Arreaza

Master of Science Thesis

Department of Energy Technology

Approved at KTH by: Signature:

Overall responsible at industry: Dr. Martin Patel

Approved for distribution:

3 Description of the Sectors...............................................................................11

4 Physical Activity Indicators............................................................................19

5 Specific Energy Indicator ...............................................................................30

6.2.2 Structural Changes: EAF and BOF ....................................................50

Equation 1: Physical Sector factor analysis............................................................................ 4

A journey – called masters program – that started in Stockholm (Sweden) has

1.1 Definition of Problem

Sustainable development, greenhouse gas emissions and energy

This interest in becoming more efficient is driven by factors such as

The insights provided by this report may also contribute to a better

The VLEEM model, which is being developed in a project funded by the

The purpose of VLEEM is threefold, the consolidation of the skeleton-form

- first, it continues to bring new ideas, new concepts, new analytical

energy-environment policy, socio-economics and technological

The main objective of this thesis is to create projections of energy

The main objective can de disaggregated into:

Chapter 2 of the report describes the methodology and indicators used

2.1 General Methodology

Equation 1: Physical Sector factor analysis

Ai: Physical activity in sector i

Throughout the report these factors are represented by two indicators: a)

• Geographical specific (population and GDP growth)

2.1.1 Step 1: Activity level

Apparent Consumption = Production + (Imports – Exports)

In VLEEM we apply the hypothesis that the relationship between material

App. Consump. per cap (kg of crude steel)

In further explaining the material demand projection from figure 1 a two-

2.1.2 Step 2: Specific energy use

As in Worrell et al. [1997b], we use physical indicators in activity for projection

Energy efficiency can be implemented throughout all the industries’ processes

35 From 2050 to 2100:

primary energy requirements (GJp/tonne)

2.1.3 Step 3: Future energy use in absolute terms

By combining step 1 with step 2 we project the total amount of energy

2.2 Computation Implementation

The VLEEM model is a long-term energy and environmental model that

The overview of VLEEM, as presented in 1.2, can be seen in figure 3. This

2.3 Other methodologies:

It is important to realize that this thesis follows a simple methodology that

Several other studies have addressed and/or proposed alternative

• Substance Throughput Related to Economic Activity Model-STREAM

• IPTS Report [Hidalgo et al., 2003], describes a simulation model used

• Jutila and Leiviskä [1981] stress the importance of computer simulation

• Nguyen and Chern [1979] present a model to evaluate important

• Sharma et al. [1997] investigated the economic, social and

3 DESCRIPTION OF THE SECTORS

3.1 Iron and Steel: Energy Use for Steelmaking

3.1.1 Overview of the iron and steel process

Technological developments affect the energy intensity and emissions of the

1. treatment of raw material

3.1.1.1 Treatment of raw material

3.1.1.2 Iron making

3.1.1.3 Steel making

3.1.1.5 Rolling and finishing

3.1.2 Current Energy Use