COVID-19

Initial Impacts
on Vietnam FMCG
In-home Purchases
2020 (urban 4 key
cities of Vietnam)

Worldpanel Division
Vietnam, March 2020
COVID-19 INITIAL IMPACT – Slower Growth Expectation
Vietnam economy shows an optimistic outlook in 2019, GDP surpassed government target 6.8%, achieved a well-controlled
result of CPI together with double-digit growth of retail sales of consumer goods. However, with the unexpected COVID-19
epidemic, growth is slowing down and consumers life being impacted by high inflation – highest rate over the past 5 years!

Retail Sales
CPI GDP of Consumer Goods

5.91
4.09 12.4 12.7
7.08 7.02 11.3
2.66
3.53 3.54
2.79 6.81 Scenario 1: 9.5 10.2 10.9 9.80
0.63 6.68
6.21 6.25
5.98
Scenario 2:
+5.96%

Source: GSO 2
 COVID-19 INITIAL IMPACT – FMCG purchases still on yet softening growth
Despite the strong performance in year 2019, growth is slightly disrupted and slowing down in early 2020 by +5.2%. Growth is
seen in Dairy, Packaged Food and Personal Care while Beverages suffered a sharp decline in this supposedly high season –
possibly due to the fact that people limit travel / avoid visiting / gathering, thus lower the needs of partying and tend to stay
healthy during this epidemic time.
YTD FEB 2020
(8 w/e 23 Feb 2020)

Urban 4 Cities YOY Value change%

FMCG YEARLY TREND
52 weekly year-on-year change (%)
FMCG +5.2%
Value Growth %
Dairy +8.5%
6.3
5.4 5.2 Beverages -6.8%

Packaged Foods +10.8%

2.3
Personal Care +14.5%

Household Products 1.7%

Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities| Total FMCG excluding Gift | YTD ending 23 Feb 2020

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COVID-19 INITIAL IMPACT – Key Timing Milestones
The “Peak Period” was in the 1st week of Feb’19 when the Prime Minister announced the official epidemic in Vietnam with 6
confirmed cases.

“Peak Period”
Jan 31- Feb 9
Official Epidemic
Announcement on 1 Feb
The 17th case/ the 1st in
Hanoi >> causing the 2nd
phase of the epidemic in VN
The first 2 cases
on 23 Jan

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COVID-19 INITIAL IMPACT – Disrupted purchase & gifting behaviors

2019 (Tet on 5th Feb) FMCG Value 2020 (Tet on 25th Jan)
3.5E+09

Weaker Tet as People

3E+09 limit travel & avoid
FMCG purchases
gathering which resulted
dropped in the holiday
on much lower GIFTING Stock-Up behavior in
2.5E+09 week & gradually
in the week of Tet Eve the “”PEAK PERIOD”*
coming back to normal
– post official
level after Tet
2E+09 announcement of the
epidemic on 1st Feb
1.5E+09

1E+09

500000000

Total FMCG incl. Gift Gift Real purchase

Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities| Total FMCG including Gift

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COVID-19 INITIAL IMPACT – Key Data Analysis Timing of COVID-19 Impact

COVID-19 Impact
(4 w/e 23rd Feb 20 vs. 4 w/e 3rd Mar 19)*

*To ensure the fair comparison & avoid

the Tet impact in Feb 2019 data which
has 1 week of the high season

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COVID-19 INITIAL IMPACT – Stronger purchases during the outbreak
With fear of chaos time and lock-down, consumers even purchase more of FMCG to stock-up during the Outbreak time.
Beverages sector is the most suffered in this period while all others are growing at double-digit rate.

YTD FEB 2020 COVID-19 INITIAL IMPACT

(8 w/e 23rd Feb 2020 vs. 8 w/e 24th Feb 2019) (4 w/e 23rd Feb 20 vs. 4 w/e 3rd Mar 19)*

Value change% Value change%

FMCG +5.2% FMCG +10.0%

Dairy +8.5% Dairy +10.3%

Beverages -6.8% Beverages -14.1%

Packaged Foods +10.8% Packaged Foods +26.2%

Personal Care +14.5% Personal Care +29.0%

Household Products 1.7% Household Products +11.4%

Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities| Total FMCG excluding Gift

(4 w/e 23rd Feb 20 vs. 4 w/e 3rd Mar 19)*: to ensure the fair comparison & avoid the Tet impact in
Feb 2019 data which has 1 week of the high season 7
COVID-19 INITIAL IMPACT – What do consumers purchase in epidemic time?

STOCKING UP LIST % Value growth across categories DROPPING OUT LIST

1. Personal & Family Hygiene 2. Convenient Foods & Celebratory categories

Cooking Aids
Hand Wash +794% Beer -24%

Liquid Bath +121% Frozen Foods +121% Carbonated Soft Drinks -19%

Facial Cleanser +74% Rice Soup +78%

Bar Soap +33%
Instant Noodle +65%
Household Cleaners +24%
Canned Food +64%
3. Immunity & Nutrition for Packaged Bread +59%
seniors & kids
Processed Food +52%
Drinking Yogurt +36%

Adult Milk Powder +33% Sugar +24%

COVID-19 INITIAL IMPACT
Infant Milk Powder +14% Cooking Oil +19% (4 w/e 23rd Feb 20 vs. 4 w/e 3rd Mar 19)*

Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities| Total FMCG excluding Gift 8
COVID-19 INITIAL IMPACT – Channel Choice Changes in Panicking Time
▪ As consumers limit travel and avoid contacts, not surprisingly, e-commerce prevails and booms significantly in panicking
time.
▪ In the surge of finding protection masks and hand sanitizers, FMCG has also been picked up significantly more at
Pharmacies and Drug-stores.
▪ For stocking-up purposes, Hypermarkets-Supermarkets and Minimarkets which offer hygiene, variety with lots of
epidemic-supporting programs (i.e. home-delivery, stable-price masks & hand sanitizers, farmer supporting sales…) won
big time vs. Traditional Trade.

% Value growth across channels

1. Booming channels 2. Significant growth of major 3. Impacted venues

Modern Trade formats
E-commerce +122% Convenience Stores -30%
Hyper & Supermarkets +30%
Pharmacy +164% Street Shops 2%
Mini-markets +32%
Drug Stores +168%

COVID-19 INITIAL IMPACT

(4 w/e 23rd Feb 20 vs. 4 w/e 3rd Mar 19)*

Source: Worldpanel Division | Households Panel | Urban 4 Key Cities| Total FMCG excluding Gift 9
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