2010 ELECTRONIC CONNECTOR TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

Recession Impact
The major technologic impact from 2009 was from the Great Recession, although the actual impact is hidden –
slowdowns, cutbacks and downsizing at connector companies and their customers, delays in programs, etc. Even so,
the industry worked hard through the recession on new product development. Some OEMs saw the recession as a call
to step up certain development activities.

During recessions, unique opportunities emerge for those with the fortitude and wherewithal to invest and husband
their R&D resources. Intel, for instance, committed $5B to upgrading domestic manufacturing facilities, stepped up
investment in venture startups and launched an aggressive program with its new Atom processor, aiming at netbook
and net-top applications. Apple had several ‘technology-extension’ designs such as the iPhone 4G and iPAD. , and
new products such as solid state disks grew through the recession. Government pressure may result in rapid
deployment of hybrid and electric vehicle designs, electrical applications in alternative energy, and infrastructure
projects.

Evolutionary Design
Connector design in both good and bad times tends to follow the lead of OEMs. Most technology developments are
evolutionary – and in many cases contain unique dimensional or other creative design regimes. Since there are
lower and higher design limits to discrete connectors in speed, bandwidth, size and density, connectors have a
fairly well defined role in conventional macro-micro electronic circuitry. The next level, some years in the future, will
be micro-interconnects at or just above the silicon interconnect level. In the meantime, continual pressure will bear
on connector designs to be smaller, thinner, with finer pitches, and able to handle ever-higher circuit performance.
40Gbps is probable with Cu circuitry, as is 100-200 micron pitch.

Serial interconnects will continue to take some pressure off the higher pin counts used in parallel interfaces. The
latest example is USB 3.0, which has a max. throughput of 4.8Gbps. This will continue to extend the life of Cu over
fiber. Backplane designs have, or are, approaching 40gbps capability (if you can measure it), matching the limits of
current silicon chip designs. Improvements in thin flexible circuitry have enabled highly packed smart phones and
other handheld devices. Advances in electronic packaging, including 3D and stacked die packaging of ICs
continue, adding to the constant need for new and improved connector designs.

Post recession we hope to see an up tick in new developments. The longer the downturn, the greater pent-up
demand may be for new devices and applications. One gets the feeling that this is being displayed right now. By
most measures, the electronics industry appears to be in a much more rapid expansion than the general economy.

Connector Technology
Connector companies engage in various levels of R&D. Some do primary research into materials and process
technology; others react primarily to customer requirements, utilizing outside suppliers for electronic materials
developments. Less than 10 large suppliers do both Cu and Fiber Optic development and a similar number are
involved with other synergistic electronic component research. Most significant developments are company-proprietary
until commercialization. Then, customers want multiple sources and often dictate some form of licensing arrangement.

Companies and Size vs. RD&E

Multi-billion $ companies support this $40B industry, (Tyco Electronics, Molex, Amphenol, Delphi, FCI are
examples). But there are many mid-sized to small companies – over 350 worldwide. Many are specialists in a
particular technology or product niche. But, as the industry evolves and matures, there are fewer protected niches
and more industry consolidation. The industry is characterized by its mechanical engineering prowess and design
creativity, which is enabled by the wide selection of component parts. Size matters in R&D. It more or less works
this way: Large companies invest in RD&E and are closely linked to major OEM customers. Small companies tend
to specialize in a specific area. Mid-sized companies can be caught in a vise between smaller and larger
competitors.

© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 1
 Over the years, R&D has had a tough road to hoe. There are several reasons for this:
 Cost justification in a very competitive market
 Lack of ‘linkage’ between R&D projects and real-world applications
 Recognition that OEMs drive product development, not supplier R&D

Connector Basics
Electronic connectors by definition are mechanically robust, disconnectable electrical contacts assembled into an
injection molded or metal/plastic housing. One could even suggest that the proverbial wall socket is an apt example
of a connector design: It has plated contacts, mating force designed to ‘scrub’ contacts, and a mechanical structure
to ensure multiple contact cycles. The difference is a wall socket just passes ac current while many electronic
connectors have very specific electrical parameters relating to the signal it is passing.

Discrete connectors mate ICs, electronic components, modules, circuit boards, subsystems, systems, cables and
wiring infrastructures such as telecommunications networks. Connectors range from 1-2 pins up to 1,000s of
contacts in some IC sockets. Connector designs can be industry standard, defacto-standard or application-specific
custom designs. There are thousands – almost an unlimited number of designs, because physical requirements are
often unique to the application, or class of application. Examples range from a micro-coax bundle used in ultra-
sound equipment to the sockets used with high-end microprocessors in super-computers.Connector

Core Technologies
Connector core technologies have evolved over the years, keeping pace with semiconductor and system design
trends. Below are most of the major technology disciplines required in the electronic connector industry. In specialized
areas, such as fiber optics, microwave, test, etc. there are other core requirements.
Contact Physics
Critical issues such as fretting corrosion are well understood at major suppliers. But there are limits to reliable
contact design and the degree to which emerging competitors know about these issues. Therefore, contact physics
is the technology that binds and limits many applications. One critical issue is between the wiping or scrubbing
action with most ‘linear’ or conventional pin/beam contacts, and the ‘area array’ ‘z-axis’ compression contact
physics applied to some LGA and contact-to-pad applications that require high mating forces. Generally contact
scrubbing, sufficient mating force and multiple points of micro-contact are necessary for a reliable connection. In
some cases use of contact lubricants are desirable.

Metallurgy, Metal Forming. Typically Cu alloys, i.e. brass, phosphor, bronze, beryllium-copper and other alloy
metals suitable for machined or stamped connector contacts and their metallic plating. BeCu will be reduced due to
toxicity while CuNiSi and other designer alloys will increase. In subminiature applications, chemical-milling
processes may be required. Conventional stamping technology reaches a barrier in the 5-10 mil range. Fine
blanking and micro-mechanical fabrication will be more widely used. In some cases, the contact edge will be the
active contact surface due to high-density requirements. Long term, there will be semiconductor-like processes
involving silicon bench/photolithographic tools. This is more likely to occur in IC test applications. In printed circuitry
the potential is there for micro-fabrication, using a wide range of technologies including ceramics, HDI PCBs, FEC
and printed electronics. Use of these substrates have been limited to special applications.
Electro-Plating. Gold plating is preferred, but is expensive; as is palladium. Both are heavily dependent on
selective/spot plating processes (and the fluctuating cost of these metals). Au is currently $1240/oz, up 34% from
one year ago. Pd is $490/oz, up from $230/oz last year. Many applications use a flash coating rather than micro-
inches of Au. Fine geometric control of selective plating technology (i.e. spot plating) is outpacing mechanical
contact fabrication. Tin plating is widely used in low cost applications. Pb-Free solder plating of connector solder
tails and through-hole mountings are now dominant post/RoHS. Associated Sn whisker issues are being addressed
but could surface as issues in the future.
Materials and Molding. Thermal and micro-miniature packaging issues are emerging. Materials technology is
rd
typically a 3 party developmental process via Dow, Dupont, Hitachi, Honeywell, Shipley, etc. However, injection
molding of small, thin walled precision parts is a requisite in the connector industry. A major factor in connector
evolution will be fine geometric molding and the use of insert molding technology. A key point here is the large
variety of LCPs and other primary plastic materials, and the constant possibilities for new developments that can be

© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 2
 adapted to the connector industry. In auto applications, for instance, contact sealing is being looked into as part of
the insert molding process. Materials issues have surfaced as part of the move to Asia, and some production is
being moved back to North America because of materials problems.
Assembly and Packaging. Offshore assembly is influencing the degree and type of connector assembly and
automation. A preferred methodology offshore is flexible bench assembly, using low cost labor to leverage semi-
automatic equipment. This avoids high capital investments for what are increasingly short product life cycles.
Advances in odd-shaped component placement will alleviate issues with applying connectors via SMT, although
tape and tray packaging for automation will become increasingly important. Asian facilities are automating, which
will produce a ‘double-whammy’ in production costs.
SMT Assembly requiring Pb-Free Solders and Hazard-Free Materials. Higher melt temperatures will
have an impact on connectors and other components such as LEDs and capacitors, requiring changes in
encapsulating materials and longer multi-stage solder assembly. There are some lingering issues, such as
traceability and materials problems, but RoHS/WEEE regulations are well under way. The jury is still out as to
whether this will go smoothly – or will develop into some major problems. Examples: Sn whiskers, higher melt
temperatures, costs associated with this changeover, and reluctance by the military to approve the use of Pb-free
processing.
Mechanical and Electrical Design. Design tools are adequate at the connector level, but there will be
increasing dependence on modeling and simulation tools in the design of electronic connectors. This type of
connector design will, in some cases, become primary rather than secondary to mechanical design. There is a
desire in the OEM community for end-to-end design tools to provide a composite system design approach.
Design for Manufacturability and Assembly. The issue here is to design for the most cost-effective global
manufacturing assembly. The discipline required to do this will elevate this requirement to one of major importance
– and provide competitive advantage to some.
Global Logistics and EDI. This requirement is well advanced among global, high volume manufacturers. Global
supply chain management is a ‘business technology’ every bit as important as design, materials, and process.
Electronic data interchange is being standardized and is well advanced.
Outsourcing. This has become commonplace among OEMs. It will also be important to connector suppliers who
must satisfy global OEM and CM needs. Outsourcing may level off a bit as OEMs seek to rein in control of their
supply chain and benefit directly from discounts in component pricing.
Environmental Electronics. Impacting connectors via RoHS/WEEE (see above). The Restriction of Hazardous
Substances Directive [RoHS] has had an effect on the electronics industry as we have progressed through
deadlines starting in 2006. This includes:

Mandated Lead-free soldering and solder coatings.

Other Pb-containing materials: PVC, colorants, X-Chrome, Cd, Flame Retardants, Hg, other hazardous
materials – 20 odd new materials being added to hazard list.
Tin whisker mitigation for Pb-free coatings – but no long-term data exists.
Substitutions exist for other banned materials, incl. Deca BDE exemption.
Labeling, date codes, p/n systems and other logistics are being worked out.
There have been multi-million $ costs associated with new logistics, materials and processes to meet
RoHS/WEEE and emerging) REACH regulations.
There is as yet no industry wide consensus on part numbering issues.
All of these issues are being worked in various committee meetings, but there is some rancor – including
a pending IPC lawsuit on EU hazardous substance regulations.
The 2009 worldwide recession is likely to have had an impact on environmental regulations.

Application
One major use for connectors is to partition subsystems and assemble equipment from subsystems or circuit boards
supplied by different companies. Thus industry standards and internmateability become important considerations.
There are also cost and application trade-offs between using disconnectable connectors vs. hard wiring such as a ball

© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 3
grid array attachment. Usually, where connectors are used, there is no other option – other than compromising system
assembly, repair and upgrade, or the multi-vendor approach to most systems. Connectors represent a small
percentage of equipment value (<3%), but their use equates to billions of units in thousands of different applications.

Reliability
No electronic equipment would function properly if connectors were sub-par, or became defective because of stresses
in the application. Thus, years of research, (sometimes forgotten or unknown by new suppliers), have resulted in the
sciences of contact physics, metallurgy and intermetallics, fretting corrosion, contact mechanics, etc. This results in the
key feature of connectors: they must maintain solid, error-free electrical contact through repeated cycles of insertion,
long periods of insitu contact, exposure to micro-mechanical vibration and environmental contaminants.

The Core Purpose of Electronic Connector Products

Electronic connectors provide a disconnectable interface between electrical (or optical) circuit elements. They connect
circuit elements during equipment assembly, test, upgrade or repair. Since most equipment has multiple subsystems
produced by many different suppliers, connectors are the glue that mate the system together during assembly. IC
sockets allow critical parts of a system – such as the microprocessor, to be installed last, protecting the most
expensive component and avoiding duties or other issues. In digital circuitry, wire-to-board technology has re-emerged
as a key interconnect between digital subsystems. Growth in flat panel displays has exploded the LCD interconnect
regime. IO connectors have focused around USB, HDMI and other high-speed IO connectors.

Connector Product Categories

IC sockets for semiconductor test, burn-in, emulation, breadboarding
IC sockets for production equipment – typically ASIC, CPU and memory
Memory card sockets
PC board connectors
Wire-to-board connectors
Board-to-board/board-to-cable connectors
HDD connections, other small form factor, incl. flexible circuits
Backplane connectors – medium performance
Backplane connectors – high performance/multi Gbps
Internal cabling – e.g. SATA, Infiniband, other high performance computer chassis
Wire connectors, splices & terminals
Flexible, flat cable connectors
Terminal blocks
Electronic high current power connectors
Battery terminals
Input-Output connectors such as USB, IEEE1394, VGA, DVI, HDMI, RJ45 etc
Box-to-box interconnects - LAN/telecom connectors (or wireless counterparts)
Customer premise & outside plant telecom cable plant connectors, x-connects, etc
Automotive - Wiring harness, engine control and other automotive connectors
Fiber optic connectors
RF coaxial connectors
Military/Avionics connectors
Other specialized interconnect products, e.g. medical, marine, industrial, etc.
Electrical connectors, terminals and splices for appliances, HVAC, vending, POS etc.
Electrical Power and grounding connections for buildings, power plants, etc.

© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 4
Levels of Interconnect
On-Chip  In Package  Test Examples:
Level 0 Die level Diffused on-chip Al, Cu interconnect
Level 1 Die to Package Wire Bond, flip chip
Level 1 & 2 IC Test & Burn-in Connectors & Sockets for IC testing

Package-to-Board  PC Board  Backplane  Chassis Level  IO  Between Systems

Level 2 Package/module to Board IC Socket, Mezzanine Connector
Level 3 PC Board Card Edge Connector, PCIe Bus Connector
Level 4 Subsystem Mezzanine, Backplane Connectors
Level 5 IO Panel USB, IEEE1394, RJ45, SATA, SFP
Level 6 Intra System Cables, LANs, Premise, and Telecom

Connector Design
Increasingly, connectors use state-of-art design tools, including modeling and simulation tools to develop new products
and applications. Often electrical considerations also drive connector design, whereas historically, mechanical design
was preeminent..

There are an unlimited number of designs: electronic, electrical, fiber optic, test and burn-in.
Use of various Cu alloys, engineered plastics, metallic enclosures and other parts.
Advanced micro-molding and assembly techniques.
Connector design regimes are extremely flexible and can be configured into almost any shape or size to meet
specific design requirements.

Connector complexity fuels extensive mechanical design capabilities, precision stamping, machining, plating, molding
and assembly of small precision parts. Increasingly these parts come together in high performance electronic
applications where circuit speeds, cross-talk and other electrical parameters compete against mechanical design
requirements. Connector designs have evolved over the years, adding new materials and other features as required by
system designs. Following the lead set by advances in IC technology, connectors have become smaller and higher in
electrical performance. They now support pervasive industry standards for circuit buses and IO, such as PCI Express
and USB. Multi-Gb speeds previously thought not possible in Cu circuitry are now common.

IC technology (Moore’s Law) continues to drive equipment innovation. But it has slowed from 2x in 18 months to
30 months or longer as feature sizes approach atomic levels. The new buzzword is ‘More Than Moore’.
Examples: Many IC developments are now focusing more on multi-core capabilities from 2 to 4, 8-16-32 and
higher # of cores over the next decade, providing major parallel processing within a CPU unit.
Thus, while Moore’s Law is slowing, IC developments are not – It appears that IC developments may take 2-3
roads into the future:
1) Continuing feature size reduction – possibly breakthrough sub-micron processes
2) Multi-chip applications utilizing micro-assembly techniques with multiple die or chips
3) Evolution of new circuit platforms based on Si deposition techniques
4) This is logical since Si/CMOS processes provide the
Packaging trends and industry standards continue to heavily influence connector design.
Conventional connectors have physical design limits in the mils, not microns. Below a few mils connector
contacts become too fragile, and very difficult to manufacture.
Connector pitches ~ 200-300 µm are approaching the limits of conventional technology (but who knows. A few
years ago 500 µm was assumed to be minimum. There is the possibility of IC batch processing).
Given the relatively slow pace of PCB technology development, this has not yet been a major design issue.
There remains a division between electronic and EO design regimes, with Cu still king – but FO connectors are
advancing to inside-the box applications and will be dependent on EOIC developments.
Design and simulation software has advanced dramatically and has become a key ingredient of connector
design.

© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 5
Specific designs within connector categories are subject to change and obsolescence, particularly as product life
cycles shrink at the equipment level and business becomes global. Historically these pressures were small in
connectors, with many designs lasting for decades (e.g. D-sub, Centronics, etc). While the pace of change in
connectors lags semiconductors, it is increasing. For example, PC motherboards have been streamlined by designing
out older ‘legacy connectors’, and ‘new’ PC motherboards for Nettop PCs are thin and integrated.

Core technologies are relatively well known and practiced worldwide. However, there are varying levels of expertise,
and a questionable worldwide infrastructure. There are proprietary processes that, while not evident, do differentiate
suppliers ie. lead-free coatings that control/eliminate tin whiskers. Thus, intellectual property, including patents, and
trade secrets have always been an important strategic ingredient – fighting to some extent against forces of
standardization.

Market Forces Impacting Technology

Market forces are as important, often more important to connectors than sheer technology. This is truer now with the
recent roller-coaster recessions of 2001-3 and 2008-9. Globalization and massive outsourcing in key connector
markets have had a profound impact.

Among these, perhaps the most significant has been the shift of equipment manufacturing from OEM to EMS. As time
goes on, the EMS industry will become THE experts in hardware design and manufacturing – and more influence
RD&E at the component supplier level.

l competition and supply chain management are now key.

OEM outsourcing is now the rule, rather than the exception.
Manufacturing has shifted to China and begun to move to other developing countries such as Vietnam.
India may be next, although this predicted trend has infrastructure issues.
There is some ‘pull-back’ going on as companies experience quality and logistical problems in China. A rising Yen
will increase costs in China.
Connector Industry consolidation continues but has slowed somewhat.
Standardization requirements continue to increase and cannot be over-emphasized as a key factor in technology
decisions.
Multiple sourcing remains, but many OEMs are also limiting the number of approved sources.
Technology decisions are made in the realm of business conditions, and are often ‘harmonized’ with cost, risk,
multiple source availability and other questions.
Basically, semiconductor technology leads the pack, with everything else falling into sync with IC developments.

With shorter life cycles, and a shorter time frame to leverage technical advantages, competitive advantage equates
more to cost leadership, customer positions, global support, proven quality and other expertise that customers value.
OEMs are outsourcing, needing suppliers who can support throughout the supply chain, including at mainland China’s
manufacturing campuses, and to provide error-free support at world-competitive prices.

Manufacturing
NA manufacturing has gone from high volume to high tech, quick turn, and specialty mfg. Most high
volume/low cost production is in Asia with some in CEE and MX. Large connector companies have been
international enterprises for years with subsidiaries in JP, EU and NA. As OEMs outsource to ODM and
EMS suppliers, connector makers have had to follow these manufacturers to their new plants in Asia –
mostly to China. As a result, the following dynamic have occurred:

Manufacturing Trends. A common denominator in manufacturing is where the connectors are going to be
applied to equipment. As OEM and EMS manufacturing migrated to China, for example, it was not only the lower
labor costs in that region, but other cost factors and regulations. Post 911 this trend accelerated dramatically and is

© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 6
 expected to continue, although some believe 70-80% of the shift to China is complete. The 2009 recession may
have impacted this in new, surprising ways. Specific areas of connector manufacturing expertise include:

Modular Assembly. Automatic in-process material handling in developed countries, and stand-alone
operator-assisted bench stations in developing world [primarily China]. These are/will utilize re-toolable
process stations. This will inevitably evolve into mid to high levels of automation as developing nations’
manufacturing infrastructures mature – as is happening in Asia.

State-Of-The-Art Metal Forming. (both tool materials and design). Implemented in-line with
assembly.

Tight Tolerance Stack-Ups. Traditional assembly methods will become obsolete. The solution may
be critical contact forming and insertion, controlled by adaptive servo controls. Measurements taken on
the fly will automatically alter setups. Measurements will be direct [sensing critical component
features/dimensions], or indirect [monitoring equipment/tool characteristics].

Marking and Packaging. - Integrating the connector component flow seamlessly into OEM/CM
production control systems. Web-based access to networked machines, employing remote diagnostics
with automated preventive maintenance. Solving RoHS and other traceability issues via date codes or
other.

In-Line - ‘Lights Out’ Automation. The realities of the connector market tend to discourage this
level of investment. Product life cycles are shrinking, as are margins. In Asia, automation is happening,
but process control can suffer from inexperienced operators and a lack of technical support.

© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 7
 TABLE 1 NORTH AMERICAN CONNECTOR MFG ROADMAP 1990-2020
Parameter 1990 2000 2009 2013 2015 2020 Comment
Electronic Industry Jobs (M) 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.5 Offshoring. Productivity
NA Connector Jobs (K)
NA Engrg % of World 90 80 70 60 50 40 Influenced by Offshore Mfg
Industry Outsourcing: % of Consumption (incl BOM) made in NA
Consumer Electronics 20 10 0 0 0 0 Possible uptake in LCD-TV
Home Appliances 100 90 75 60 50 40 Board, System, Globalize
Communications Devices 90 60 10 0 0 0 Handhelds gone: Asia, Mx
Notebook PCs 100 50 10 0 0 0 Taiwan ODMs, CN Assy
Desktop PCs 100 75 10 0 0 0 Taiwan ODMs, CN Assy
Telecom Equip 100 90 75 50 40 30 Wireless Base Stations
Industrial Equip 100 90 75 65 55 50 Board Assy
Medical Equip 100 90 80 75 70 60 Foreign Comp, Offshoring
Mill/Aerospace Equip 100 100 90 80 75 75 Commercial Equiv Procure
Automotive 100 95 90 75 65 50 Shift to EV, CN growth
NA Connector Manufacturing
High Vol. Mfg 100 70 40 30 25 20 AP, CN
Tool & Die Work 100 60 20 10 10 10 CN at <25% of cost
Stamping/Plating 100 75 50 40 30 20 CN
Machining 100 90 80 75 70 65 Mostly RF/Mil/Aero
All Assembly 100 80 60 50 40 30 Specialty niches remain
Areas Affected:
High Volume Mfg Assembly Reverse picture for CN
New Mfg Equipment Quick Turn, Specials
Materials Sourcing Same companies Offshore
Tool & Die Work Shifted to CN, Lost Art
Mfg Engineering Following Mfg to CN, AP
Product Engineering Will Follow Demand
Marketing & Distribution Where are Customers?
NA Home Strategies for Future:
Target Growth Markets HPCC, Medical Electronics, Alt Energy, WWWeb Infrastructure
Target Emerging Markets SiP, IC Packaging & Test, Solar, Battery Technol, LED Lighting, other
Industry Initiatives, Consortia Based on programs for re-growth in domestic market
Vertical Integration Leveraging Core Competencies
Horizontal Integration Mergers & Acquisitions
Emerging Technologies NanoMats, Super Conductivity, Advanced Semicon, Micro-Interconnect

Technology Roadmaps and Trends

There are always questions about the future direction of technology - what roadblocks will emerge and what paradigm
shifts will occur. Customers want data on these trends at the component level. OEMs and EMSs respond to suppliers
who have formalized technology roadmapping programs and are capable of enunciating these trends visa-vie their
products and technologies. Thus, Technology Roadmap activities are a part of high level business relationships.
Roadmap documentation will be an important aspect of customers’ future design direction and supplier selection.

© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 8
The 2011 iNEMI Technology Roadmap is now in Printing
Bishop & Assoc with this writer are working on the 2011 connector roadmap. See
www.connectorsupplier.com/tech_updates.htm or go to ‘archives’ for a detailed description.

Connector Design and Manufacturing. Rarely do key industry design initiatives, usually backed by major
OEMs or consortia, stray from a comfort zone, which tends to mandate evolutionary, incremental changes in
proven technology, rather than a ‘leapfrog’ approach. While connector design is broad and deep and there is no
shortage of ingenuity in this industry. Connector developments tend to be evolutionary because they tend to follow
OEM mandates. Electronic connector designs are extremely adaptable to new application requirements because of
their mix/match components. They can thus achieve steady improvements in both electrical and mechanical design
made possible by their multi-component electro-mechanical assembly.

Cost Technology. Cost reductions of 2 percent to 5 percent per year are not uncommon. Constant price
reductions require design changes; new materials and processes that draw upon all the technology resources a
manufacturer can muster. In order of importance, here are some of the key factors affecting cost reduction:
Low cost manufacturing regions, leveraging direct labor, materials and benefits, engineering,
management overhead, equipment, supplies, land, taxes, shipping and other costs.
‘Lights Out’ automation may be applicable to long running very high volume designs such as RJ45, USB,
etc. in the US, EU and Japan, but have not been commonly used due to capital costs and flexibility
issues.
Global supply chain management, including the outsourcing of non-critical components and assembly
operations, subject to profitability and control limitations.
Business practices that maximize cost reductions, such as lean organizations, industry consolidation, e-
commerce, global design teams, customer co-located manufacturing plants, etc.

Technology Roadblocks
No significant barriers are identified for connectors. Silicon innovation and the scale of circuit integration are
question marks for connectors going forward – possibly in the 2015-20 time frame. Not so much as a barrier or
roadblock as a paradigm shift in circuit design toward system-on-chip with new, highly integrated circuit board
platforms. There is the possibility within a decade that circuit ‘streamlining’ and integration will have a profound
impact on discrete components. This would mean fewer connectors per system, less internal system assembly or
upgrade, more ‘sealed box’ configurations. Likely candidates for major SiP and SoC encroachment are high volume
handheld devices such as cell phones, cameras, notebook, netbook and desktop PCs, and wireless applications of
all types. The model would be a fully integrated system, including wireless IO diffused into Si with minimal outboard
circuitry. The chart below summarizes key types, applications, and requirements. Most barriers will be overcome by
continued evolutionary design and engineering advances, including cross-linkages to other technologies such as
printed circuits, flexible etched circuitry and fiber optics:

Connector Technology Roadblock Summary

Challenges facing the connector industry always seem to be overcome by new designs and developments. Thus
there are few challenges that are not met by the industry. Some are more difficult, involving a sharp change in
equipment design or application. The Pb-free mandate was one of these. Others are more evolutionary. The most
‘interesting’ areas of potential barriers are listed below:

 Miniaturization. PCB, FEC, IC packaging trends toward sub-100µm dimensions

 Density. Below 100-200µm pitch, pressure somewhat reduced by shift to serial transmission
 Bandwidth/High Speed Circuitry. Many major improvements have been made, delaying need to use EO,
which also requires a change in circuit design.
 Power + Thermal. This issue, including peak current remains an issue, but has abated somewhat.
 Materials. Evolutionary, but with a ‘cage-rattling’ shift to Pb Free now well under way. Nano-materials
developments will impact connectors – positively.
© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 9
  Processing. Evolutionary, with bench-type assembly more popular in emerging markets – but this is/will
give way to ‘re-automation’.
 Design Automation. Many new tools, more developments to come, including integrated design tools.

TABLE 2 TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS & CHALLENGES BY CONNECTOR TYPE

CONNECTOR TYPES APPLICATIONS REQUIREMENTS EMULATORS TRANSITIONS* WHEN*

Electronics
Test & Burn-In IC Test Density, Speed, Life Digital Si, SIP Wafer-Scale, Test-in-Tray 2015
IC Sockets IC on PCB # of Pins, GHz , LGA Office IO #, BGA attach option 2008
Stacking, FEC Mobile, other Very thin All SiP, OLED 2015
PCB Connectors All SMT, Cost, Perform. All Density, Speed, SiP, SoC 2015
Backplane Telco, Computer Density, Speed Office 20-40Gbps, FO, SMT 2021
IO Connectors All Cable Assemblies All Wireless IO 2008
Fiber Optic Connectors Telco, Computer Point-to-Point Office Cost, Circuitizing 2021
Other Connectors
Cable Assemblies All Termination All Bluetooth, WiFi, WUSB 2008
Premises Wiring LANs, Telecom Wire Mgt Office, Home WiFi, Cat5-7, FO, Power 2008
Telecom/CATV Cable Plant Severe Environment Office Fiber/Coax, µWave 2008
Mil-Aerospace All Military Reliability Mil-Aero FO, COTS 2015
Automotive Cars & Trucks 12-44V, high current Auto PHEV,EV, FC 2011-21
Application Specific Medical, Other Unique All Standards 2011-21

SiP=System-In-Package, SoC=System-On-Chip, COTS=commercial off the shelf, Challenges = design limits, barriers, substitution
or disruptive technologies, Start = Year significant effects will be felt

Key Areas for Development

Connector developments will follow OEM requirements. Key areas of development will include materials and process
technologies, high-speed electrical performance and miniaturization. Mobile/SiP interconnect requirements may drive
future micro-scale robotic connector designs, other dimensional requirements which are beyond the realm of
conventional stamp and form connector processes:
BGA Attachment for advanced area array SMT applications.
10-40 Gbps and high density backplane connectors > 100 signal contacts per inch, both differential and
single-ended signal applications, or low pin count serialized interfaces such as USB 3.0 or next
generation PCI Express.
High-speed copper cables [Infiniband, Fiber Channel, 10 Gb Ethernet, etc.].
High-speed active/fixed FO cable assemblies.
IC sockets [high IO > 1000 contacts on 1.00 mm pitch] such as the Socket-T, F
Sockets for IC test as the industry moves toward wafer scale packaging, Flip Chip, Test-in-Tray.
High performance memory sockets [DIMM sockets will be adequate for next generation memory bus
signals. This will be dependent on PCB layout. Future DIMMs will probably retain the current 1 pc design
with further improvements.
Optical interconnects. Board level light wave packaging will become more important in future
equipment designs. Recent developments in on-chip optical interconnect (e.g. Intel), may be a sign for
the future.
Value-added connector assemblies will be of higher interest to reduce system cost and complexity
and aid in outsourcing subsystems.
Low cost wire-to-board connectors and small form factor designs will increase as consumer
electronics converge with computer and telecom applications,
© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 10
 New IC developments such as SoC, integrated radios, will determine how the connector industry will be
impacted by these paradigm shifts.
Wireless developments, including Certified Wireless USB, and rush to implement USB 3.0, a 10 fold
increase to 4.8Gbps.
Advances in electronic materials including such areas as nano-technology (NEMS).
Potential for a paradigm shift in printed circuits, including micro-printed electronics and extended
integration of SoC and HDI substrates. This could begin to take connectors into the 100 µm range and
below, using additive/subtractive chemical milling processes.

Comment for Connector Customers

The connector industry is perhaps the broadest electronic component technology in that there are an unlimited number
of design possibilities, utilizing an extremely wide variety of electronic materials and processes. Therefore, only the
number and breadth of applications limits development prospects in this industry. Look for continued developments in
high-speed, high-bandwidth, high-density and miniaturization – as well as further inroads by fiber optics in electronic
equipment.

Comment for Connector Industry

The 2009 downturn was most difficult and challenged 911 as the worst recession to ever impact
the industry. Maintaining key development programs during this downturn was key when,
inevitably, the market is turning up. In the meantime, there will be challenges in the global supply
chain, in staffing, and in budgetary constraints. It is vitally important that Western HQ operations
maintain their development engineering leadership during this difficult period.

We believe there is a technology paradigm shift coming. It will emanate from the semiconductor
industry – most likely from a key player like Intel. It will occur when that industry finds ways to
extend its product line into the former discrete component/subsystem realm. At a minimum, it will
include integrated/embedded passive components, wide use of SiP or SoC technology, coupled
with much wider use of compact, multilayer/mvia PCB technology.

© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 11
 Table 3 Industry Trends Impacting Connector Technology
These trends have been evolutionary with no showstoppers
There is future potential for paradigm shifts: Si SoC, Si-integrated PCB, Wafer-Level and Test-in-Tray, Si EOI
Cu Backplane connector designs approaching speeds beyond other circuitry

2000-10 2010-15 2015-20

IC Devel: Moore’s Law, CSP, SiP, 3D
China Mfg Growth in HV, Outsouring
Broadband Internet Deployment
Growth in Mobile & Handheld Pkg
Growth in WiFi, BT Wireless IO
Consumer: iPOD, iPhone, HDTV,DSC, etc
Display Technology: LCD, LED
Digital Convergence: CCC Markets Converge
Passing GHz Threshold
Emergence of Content Devices: iBook
Start of Alt. Energy Ramp: Wind, Solar
Hybrid Elec Vehicles & Battery Technology
Flash Memory Developments
HV Mfg to China EMS/ODM providers
RoHS/WEEE, Halogen-Free
Au reduction: Spot Plating, Flash
High Speed Serial Interconnects: USB, SATA
High Speed Back Planes: 3-10+Gbps
High Speed Mezzanine Connectors
Efficient, Flexible Power Connector Options
DVI, HDMI, Display Port
TCA/mTCA
FTTH: CATV, Telco, Wireless Web
High Perf. Test, Burn-In Sockets
Industry:
Slower Moore, Multi-Chip, Multi-Core, SiP
Emergence of CN Alternatives: Vietnam
WWW2: Interactive Multimedia
Next Gen Smart Phones
Hi-Speed WiFi Developments – Beyond N
iPAD devices, Netbook/Net-Top PCs
LCD Dominance, 3D, OLED
TV-Video to PCs, Handheld Devices
6Ghz RAM, 4.8Gbps USB, 50Gbps BP
iBook Revolution: Multimedia Content
NA joins EU in Solar, Wind ramp
PHEV, EV ramp
SSDs begin to replace HDDs
Connector-Specific:
CN Automates, Costs Increase. Other Venues
REACH Environ. Regulations
Beyond AU?
USB 3.0, WUSB
HS Backplanes: 50Gbps+ 10Gb Ethernet
Approaching Cu Interconnect Limits
Reduced CPU Power, Fewer Contacts
Display Port PCs
Hybrid Cu/FO Circuitry in HPCC
WiMax, WiFi Femtocells
Wafer Scale Pkg & Test, Test-in-Tray
SoC, Si-Integrated Substrates, EOICs
Vietnam, other Asia, India
Convergence of WWW, IPTV
Handheld Super-Communicator
60Gbps WiFi
Voice-input Tablet PCs
Advanced LCD/OLED Technology
Virtual Reality CE Devices
10Gbps RAM, EO-USB, 100Gbps BP
Google-Amazon-iTunes-World
Mainstream Solar: Residential, PUC
EV, FCV, Infrastructure
Massive SS Memory
Re-Growth NA, EU, CEE
New Revolutionary Contact Technology
Nano-Matls Breakthroughs
Super-Conductive Matls
100Gb Ethernet, possible 1Tb EO
Optical BP, Integrated Polymer Waveguides
Initial All-Optical Circuitry-Interconnect
New PCB Technology: Printed, Integrated
SiP PC Motherboards
Non-Legacy IO: USB, HDMI
Evolution of advanced wafer level test

© Bishop & Associates, Inc 2010 www.connectorindustry.com author: John L MacWilliams page 12