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MGQ301 Statistical Decisions in Management

Spring 2020 Professor Dianna Cichocki - Lead Instructor


University at Buffalo Adam Wilk – Lead Teaching Assistant
School of Management
*See UBLearns for Contact Information & Instructor/TA Office Hours

This is a hybrid course that consists of both ONLINE and DIGITAL ACCESS components.

COURSE CONTENT MODULES will be delivered online via recorded lectures embedded in UBLearns. These lectures will
be focused and based on one concept at a time. Instead of viewing 80 minutes of lecture all at once, you will view
shorter video segments that cover specific material. These shorter, concentrated videos will make your learning more
efficient. I highly recommend that you watch all course content videos for each Module in the time frame that they are
assigned. Doing so will keep you on track so that you do not fall behind,

LIVE SESSIONS will be held in Jacobs 106 every two weeks (see course calendar for session dates). For those of you who
are familiar with Digital Access, this is the Digital Access component of the course. You may choose to attend the Review
Sessions IN PERSON, STREAM the sessions live, or watch the RECORDED sessions online at another time. The purpose of
the Review Sessions will be to go over the content and answer student questions/concerns that were posted to the
corresponding Review Session Discussion Board.
 If you choose to attend the LIVE SESSIONS IN PERSON keep in mind that Jacobs 106 seats a maximum of 55
students. I highly suggest you arrive early to secure a seat.
 Want the feeling of a live lecture, but cannot physically attend? STREAM LIVE SESSIONS LIVE via UBLearns (see
menu items on the left side of UBLearns course). With this option, you may also ask questions in real time! Just
be sure that you have a proper Internet connection.
 Prefer, to watch RECORDED LIVE SESSIONS ONLINE? A recording of each review session will become available in
the appropriate Module a few hours after the MGQ301 Review Session ends. If you choose this option, I highly
suggest you post your questions/concerns to the LIVE SESSION DISCUSSION BOARD ahead of time as you
will NOT have the ability to interact live.

LIVE SESSION DISCUSSION BOARD is where students will post questions/concerns regarding COURSE CONTENT
MODULES. Professor Cichocki will address discussion board posts in the corresponding REVIEW SESSION. Students
should monitor this board to keep current with the course material. This will be a great way for us to keep the course
moving and address questions in a timely manner.
 Lumen OHM is the FREE web-based program that we will use for all homework, quizzes, and exams. Registration
with this program is required as we will be using it for homework, quizzes, and exams. Information regarding
registration will be given in our first LIVE SESSION.
 MYEDUCATOR is the web-based program that we will use for Microsoft Excel assignments. One of the objectives
of this course is to increase your MS Excel skills. My Educator will help us strengthen your excel skills and
advance your skills from basic to intermediate. On past course evaluations, students have commented on how
much they appreciate this component of the course. Advancing your excel skills increases your efficiency and
ultimately makes you more marketable. Take these assignments seriously.
 PROCTORU is the web-based program that we will use for exam administration. There are 2 exams in this course
and both will be proctored using ProctorU. More information regarding this process will be given in our first LIVE
SESSION.
When interviewed, successful students in online and/or digital access courses consistently report that they created
certain times to access course content each week as if they were creating an explicit course schedule that fits their
particular availability that semester. Similar to working out in a gym, the key to great results in MGQ 301 is creating a
weekly schedule that fits your needs and sticking to it.

One powerful advantage of both Online & Digital Access is that it also enables you to adopt a lecture-based course to
fit your particular learning style. For example, if you have a short attention span, block out segments in your week each
time you want to access course content. The shorter lectures will focus on one concept at a time.

AVOID THE TEMPTATION TO BINGE WATCH! Watching hours of lecture videos all at once is not suggested. Yes, you will
have "watched," but will you have truly understood. Do yourself a favor and commit to a schedule. The secret is
determining what works best for you.

Don't just listen to me. Here is some advice from former students who scored in the top 5% of the class:
1. Do NOT leave all the content videos until the last few days before an assignment or exam. I found it was much
easier to remember the material when I was watching 1 or 2 videos a day throughout the entirety of the module.
2. As tempting as it may be, avoid ignoring live review sessions. Even if you can’t make it in person, watch it online as
soon as possible. There’s often useful tricks for solving problems, extra credit opportunities, and template
modifications that are not available elsewhere.
3. For the first three modules, make sure to take the time to follow along with the videos and make clear, organized,
templates. Take the time to practice with them before exams.
4. Lastly, make sure to capitalize on every single one of your “free points” opportunities. These include homework
bonus points and extra credit bonuses. Ignoring these is extremely foolish, as they allow you to perform sub-
optimally and still get a good grade overall.
5. Doing the homework is the best way to learn the material. In order to do well on the exams, you need to be able to
do every problem in the homework. Go through the homework multiple times and make sure you know how to do
every problem. Before an exam, make sure you know how to do every problem from the homework, and reviews. If
you take the time to be able to do every problem without error, you will do well. Lastly, I recommend going back
and watching the module videos when reviewing a chapter as the videos are filled with information and concepts
that you may have forgotten.
6. The most important part of this course is being able to use excel to find the answers to your question in the most
efficient way possible. In order to do this, you need to be able to build a template where most of the time all you
really need to do is plug in the numbers. If you find yourself having to type out the formulas into a cell for multiple
parts of the question, you are not being efficient. Hard code as little as possible and try to have everything
reference input cells. Each question does not need its own sheet; your templates should have tabs that represent a
concept that is being tested. If you have a sheet for each question, you are being inefficient. Try to be creative in
your excel templates to make the answers you get as automated and effortless as possible!
7. Most of the work you do in this course should be using excel to be as efficient as possible.

COURSE OBJECTIVES Strengthen skills in the use of statistical methods for decision-making and spreadsheet analysis.
Topics covered include, but are not limited to, estimation, hypothesis testing, regression, and analysis of variance.
By the end of the course, students will:
1. Calculate confidence intervals for a population parameter. (Module 1 hmwk; Exam 1)
2. Construct hypothesis tests for a population parameter for a mean & a proportion. (Module 2 hmwk;, Exam 1)
3. Construct a chi-square hypothesis test for proportions, variance, and independence. (Module 3 hwmk;, Exam 1)
4. Apply ANOVA procedures to test the significance of population means. (Module 4 hmwk;, Exam 2)
5. Perform Bivariate and Multivariate Regression. (Module 5 hwmk;, Exam 2)
6. Construct regression models & perform a residual analysis. (Module 5 hmwk;, Exam 2)
7. Prepare MS Excel spreadsheets using formulas, pivot tables, and charts (Excel Lab assignments)
At the end of each module, students will be able to:
Module 1: Confidence Intervals
1. Define the characteristics of Normal Probability Distributions
2. Compute the Z-score for a random variable
3. Use MSExcel to compute Normal Probabilities (Standard Normal, Normal, Inverse Normal)
4. Use MSExcel to compute probabilities based on Sampling (Central Limit Theorem)
5. Compute Critical Value(s) for Confidence Intervals (sigma known & unknown)
6. Use the Standard Normal Table and Student’s T-Distribution Table to compute Critical Value(s)
7. Compute Margins of Error for Confidence Intervals of Parameters (means & proportions)
8. Compute Confidence Intervals for parameters (means & proportions)
9. Determine the minimum sample size for Confidence Intervals

Module 2: Hypothesis Testing for Single Populations (Mean & Proportions)


1. Differentiate the basic concepts of hypothesis testing
2. Compare the assumptions of each hypothesis testing procedure
3. Design hypothesis tests to verify a claim about a population mean
4. Design hypothesis tests to verify a claim about a population proportion
5. Identify the pitfalls (Type I and Type II errors) involved in hypothesis testing

Module 3: Hypothesis Test for Multiple Proportions


1. Compare two or more population proportions (Chi-Square)
2. Test two categorical variables for independence
3. Test the significance of the variance of a population
4. Compare the variance of two populations.

Module 4: Hypothesis Test for Multiple Means (ANOVA)


1. Compare two or more population means
2. Define the Sum of Squares Between, Sum of Squares Within and Sum of Squares Error (Interaction)
3. Compute Mean Squares Between, Mean Squares Within & Mean Squares Error
4. Compute an F test statistic for Factors and Interactions (error)
5. Compute F critical values for Factors and Interactions (error)
6. Compute p-values for Factors and Interactions (error)
7. Use critical values, test statistics, and p-values to conclude whether population means are significantly different
8. Use MS Excel to run ANOVA tests.
9. Use the Tukey-Cramer method to determine which, if any, means in a population have a meaningful difference
(are statistically significant)

Module 5: Simple & Multiple Linear Regression


1. Define Correlation.
2. Evaluate Correlation Coefficient and summarize results.
3. Evaluate Coefficient of Determination and summarize results.
4. Determine linear regression equations to make predictions.
5. Analyze the significance of coefficients and overall regression using MS Excel.
6. Interpret the output of an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA).
7. Use regression analysis to create models of best fit.
COURSE MATERIALS* Total payment for this course is approximately $75. If you are experiencing financial difficulty this semester,
please use the resources available on campus: https://www.buffalo.edu/studentlife/help/emergency/emergency-funds.html

PROCTORU - Web-based software used to complete 2 exams this semester.


 ProctorU access for each exam will cost approximately $20 (this is under $40 for the entire semester)
 You have the option of purchasing Access codes online (link in UBLearns) or you may use your financial aid to
purchase access codes at the UB Bookstore.
 If you take your exams in the Accessibility Resource Center, please reach out to me as soon as possible.
 ProctorU's Test Taker Resource Center: https://www.proctoru.com/portal/buffalo
 As you will see in the link above, ProctorU requires a computer with a working webcam AND microphone.
o Use your own computer, plan to borrow someone else's computer for the exams OR reserve one from
the UB Library (keep in mind the library has limited availability: https://library.buffalo.edu/equipment)
o Not sure if your computer is compatible? Test your equipment at the following website
( https://support.proctoru.com/hc/en-us/sections/115003555488-Testing-Your-Equipment )

MYEDUCATOR - Web-based software used to complete MS Excel Lab Assignments to strengthen analysis skills.
 Approximately $35 for LIFETIME access to MS Excel tutorials. NOTE: If you have already purchased
MYEDUCATOR in MGQ201, you will not need to purchase access again! Simply login.
 Registration with this site is required to complete the Excel Labs for this course.
 To register and purchase access, go to the MYEDUCATOR PURCHASE ACCESS HERE link in our UBLearns course
(menu item) and follow the online directions.
o You must either purchase access directly online ($35) or purchase access through the UB bookstore.
o If you already purchased access in MGQ201, simply login using the same username & password!
o Once you have purchased access and have valid login credentials you will use the MYEDUCATOR
LABS link to access all course materials for the remainder of the semester
o MyEducator Time Zone - everyone should update their time zone by clicking on their name in the top
right corner and then Account Home.
o Issues with videos showing? Specific browser? The Excel book works best if the student is using the
latest web browser and version of Excel. Students can access it at no cost
here: https://products.office.com/en-us/student/office-in-education. Internet Explorer seems to have
the most problems. On a Mac and Google Chrome works best.
o If you experience technical difficulties, please reach out to support@myeducator.com.

COURSE NOTE PACK


The course note pack is available to download and print via UBLearns (see left menu items) or you may choose to
purchase a pre-printed, bound copy in the UB Bookstore. The choice is yours!

* If you are not able to purchase the course materials, please reach out to me directly at the start of the course.

MICROSOFT EXCEL 2016 (FREE for UB students)


 Do not have the newest version? Download for free: https://www.buffalo.edu/ubit/service-
guides/software/downloading.html
 Have a Mac and not a PC? Change the settings in MyEducator so that the directions follow along with a Mac.

ADDITIONAL MATERIALS - If you would like additional material for self-help here are a few suggestions that are quite
user-friendly:
1. Statistics for Dummies Series
2. The Cartoon Guide to Statistics
3. https://www.youtube.com/user/ExcelIsFun/featured (2000+ Excel “How To” Videos)
DELIVERABLES
There are 3 categories of deliverables/assessments this semester: MyEducator Excel Labs, Homework Modules, &
Exams.
1. MyEducator Excel Labs (spreadsheet skill building) - 25% of overall letter grade
o 6 Excel Lab Assignments (if the average of all labs at the end of the semester is at least 65, I will drop the
lowest score)
o These exercises provide individual opportunities to practice and polish Microsoft Excel skills and apply
statistical concepts covered in lecture.
o You are expected to complete the problem on your own using the videos in UBLearns and resources in
MyEducator.
o Up until the due date, you may keep working on the assignment until you have mastered the
deliverable. Therefore, the sooner you begin the assignment the more time you will have for mastery.
o The practice is what will make you better. You do not learn these skills by watching. You learn by DOING!
o Late assignments will NOT be accepted for full credit. If you submit your lab within ONE week of the
deadline, it will be accepted with a 25% deduction.

2. Homework Modules - 15% of overall letter grade


o Homework is your time to practice for exams. There are 5 Homework Assignments.
o For homework, if you get an answer incorrect, you may re-do the question until you get it correct.
o With diligence, you are able to master each assignment AND earn extra credit in the process.
o Homework is worth 15% of your overall score in this course.
o You have until the end of the semester to improve homework results. However, the grade you earn
at the deadline is the score entered in the gradebook.
o Just as with Excel Labs, there is a ONE-week extension - If you scored less than 75% at the deadline
and you improve score within ONE week of the deadline, it will be accepted with a 25% deduction.
o Each module will be worth the following extra credit points based on your score at the associated due date.
o Scores of 85-89 earn 2 extra credit points.
o Scores of 90-94 earn 3 extra credit points.
o Scores of 95+ earn 5 extra credit points.

3. Exams (midterm & final) - 60% of overall letter grade (split 35% and 25%)*
o There are two (2) exams this semester that will be administered via ProctorU.I highly suggest you schedule
your time with ProctorU as soon as possible.
o Exam 1 - Saturday, March 28th - Sunday, March 29th (Modules 1 - 3)
o Exam 2 - Saturday, May 9th - Monday, May 11th (Modules 4 & 5)
*More information concerning exams and the ProctorU process will be explain during LIVE SESSIONS.

The number of POINTS, out of 1,000 that you accumulate throughout the semester will determine your overall letter
grade for this course. Please do NOT email me asking what your grade is or requesting to increase your points. I will not
respond to such emails. There is a GRADE CALCULATOR spreadsheet in UBLearns that you may use to keep track of your
progress throughout the semester. I will go over how to use the GRADE CALCULATOR during our 1st Live Session.
o 920 points = A
o 890 points = A-
o 870 points = B+
o 820 points = B
o 790 points = B-
LATE DELIVERABLES
There are 2 categories of required deliverables in this course, Excel Labs and Module Homework. To be considered for
full credit, all excel assignments and homework must be submitted by 11:59 pm on the due date listed – no exceptions.
Late work will be accepted within ONE week of the deadline with a 25% deduction. LATE is defined as after the deadline.
Homework may be improved upon throughout the semester as it does not truly close. However, the grade that you earn
at the deadline (or including penalty within 1 week of the deadline) will be the score that is recorded in the grade book.
Any potential extra credit will only be earned based on the grade earned at the deadline.

GRADING CONCERNS
 Any dispute arising in grading should be submitted in writing (via email) within one week from the date the
grade posts.
 The written appeal should clearly state the basis of the request.
 If you request a grade revision/update more than 1 week after the grade has been posted, your request may
NOT be granted.
I do not assign final letter grades until ALL EXAMS are scored. Before an actual letter grade appears next to your name,
please do NOT send an e-mail asking about your grade or explaining why you deserve a specific grade. I do not “give”
points and I do not round nor inflate grades.

Asking for additional points is neither ethical nor acceptable.

Presumably, if you disagreed with a specific grade you would have submitted such in writing 1 week after the grade was
posted as Is mentioned above. Requests such as these will be IGNORED.

ACCESSIBILITY
If you require classroom or testing accommodations due to a disability, please contact Accessibility Resources, located at
25 Capen Hall. Accessibility Resources can be reached by phone at (716) 645-2608 or by email at stu-
accessibility@buffalo.edu. Please visit Prof. Cichocki during office hours as early as possible, and bring your letter from
Accessibility Resources outlining what accommodations are required, so that you and she may discuss a strategy for the
remainder of the semester.
*Offices website: https://www.buffalo.edu/studentlife/who-we-are/departments/accessibility.html

ACADEMIC INTEGRITY
Examples of academic dishonesty include but are not limited to, the following:
 Use of any material from prior sections of this course.
 Use of any materials from other schools or universities.
 Consulting students who took the course in prior semesters at any school from any instructor (includes the
use of student's notes, assignments, quizzes, and/or exams).
 Submitting work that is not your own.
 Soliciting and/or receiving information from, or providing information to, another student or any other
unauthorized source
 Falsification of academic materials
 Misrepresentation of documents: forgery, alteration, or misuse of document or record
 Procurement, distribution or acceptance of confidential academic materials, selling academic assignments,
purchasing academic assignments
 Conversations with former students or alumni about specific assignments or exams before their due dates
*If you are in doubt about the information sources and/or support that may be used, please ask! Not asking is not worth
the risk.
Your submission must represent your individual work. When completing individual assignments, students may discuss
the overall nature of a problem, the various ways to approach each problem and talk through strategies to help one
another solve a problem. However, all components of an individual assignment need to be completed by the individual.
You must build your own spreadsheets and complete your own computations.
 Copying or otherwise using the work of another student on an assignment constitutes a violation of the Policy
on Individual Work.
 Copying or otherwise using any other outside materials on an assignment (including prior year's
solutions) constitutes a violation of the Policy on Individual Work.
 Any student who copies or knowingly allows his/her work to be copied or who uses outside materials in the
preparation of assignments will receive a 0 grade for the assignment as well as an additional penalty determined
by the instructor.
Unless otherwise specified, individual assignments and examinations are to be your work and only your work. In
other words, you are to be the sole creator of that work (it is to be developed without the assistance of other
individuals and without the aid of work from prior semesters).
The University Academic Integrity Policy can be found here: https://catalog.buffalo.edu/policies/integrity.html

GRADES OF INCOMPLETE
According to University Regulations incompletes may be given only if the student is passing at the time the incomplete
is assigned. The student would be allowed to complete the remaining work in the next 12 months. Incomplete grades
do NOT allow you to go back and submit work you have skipped or to do work over. Incompletes are assigned when
circumstances preclude you from finishing the semester. In other words, finishing the work that is due in the future. As
a general rule: I should have no reason to deny an incomplete; as long as you are not failing the course at the time you
request the incomplete.
If you have finished the course (taken the final) an incomplete CANNOT be given.

*A grade of Incomplete is NOT to be a conversion of the course to an Independent Study course. Students finishing
Incompletes must take tests, etc. on schedule with students in the semester they are completing the course. Please read
the full Incomplete Policy: https://catalog.buffalo.edu/policies/explanation.html.
SUNDAY MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY THURSDAY FRIDAY SATURDAY
Week 1 1/27/2020 1/28/2020 1/29/2020 1/30/2020 1/31/2020 2/1/2020

LIVE SESSION 1
Module 1 Course Intro

Week 2 2/2/2020 2/3/2020 2/4/2020 2/5/2020 2/6/2020 2/7/2020 2/8/2020

Review Session
Ha ve you wa tched Li ve LIVE SESSION 2
Ses s i on 1 ?
Module 1 Knox 109
Review Module 1
7:30pm - 9:00pm

Week 3 2/9/2020 2/10/2020 2/11/2020 2/12/2020 2/13/2020 2/14/2020 2/15/2020


Module 1 Review Session
Hmwk & Extra Module 2 Knox 109
Credit 7:30pm - 9:00pm

Week 4 2/16/2020 2/17/2020 2/18/2020 2/19/2020 2/20/2020 2/21/2020 2/22/2020


Review Session
LIVE SESSION 3
EXCEL SKILLS 1 Module 2 Knox 109
Review Module 2
7:30pm - 9:00pm

Week 5 2/23/2020 2/24/2020 2/25/2020 2/26/2020 2/27/2020 2/28/2020 2/29/2020


Module 2
Hmwk & Extra Module 3
Credit
Week 6 3/1/2020 3/2/2020 3/3/2020 3/4/2020 3/5/2020 3/6/2020 3/7/2020
Review Session
EXCEL SKILLS 2 Module 3 Knox 109
7:30pm - 9:00pm
Week 7 3/8/2020 3/9/2020 3/10/2020 3/11/2020 3/12/2020 3/13/2020 3/14/2020
Review Session
LIVE SESSION 4
EXCEL SKILLS 3 Module 3 Knox 109
Review Module 3
7:30pm - 9:00pm

Week 8 3/15/2020 3/16/2020 3/17/2020 3/18/2020 3/19/2020 3/20/2020 3/21/2020


Module 3
Spring Recess
Hmwk & Extra
Credit No classes
Week 9 3/22/2020 3/23/2020 3/24/2020 3/25/2020 3/26/2020 3/27/2020 3/28/2020
Prepare for Review Session
LIVE SESSION 5 MIDTERM EXAM
Nothing Due Midterm Knox 109
Midterm Review OPEN
7:30pm - 9:00pm
Modules 1-3
Week 10 3/29/2020 3/30/2020 3/31/2020 4/1/2020 4/2/2020 4/3/2020 4/4/2020

MIDTERM EXAM
CLOSE
Module 4

Week 11 4/5/2020 4/6/2020 4/7/2020 4/8/2020 4/9/2020 4/10/2020 4/11/2020


Review Session
LIVE SESSION 6
EXCEL SKILLS 4 Module 4 Knox 109
Review Module 4
7:30pm - 9:00pm

Week 12 4/12/2020 4/13/2020 4/14/2020 4/15/2020 4/16/2020 4/17/2020 4/18/2020


Module 4 Review Session
Hmwk & Extra Module 5 Knox 109
Credit 7:30pm - 9:00pm

Week 13 4/19/2020 4/20/2020 4/21/2020 4/22/2020 4/23/2020 4/24/2020 4/25/2020


Review Session
EXCEL SKILLS 5 Module 5 Knox 109
7:30pm - 9:00pm

Week 14 4/26/2020 4/27/2020 4/28/2020 4/29/2020 4/30/2020 5/1/2020 5/2/2020


Review Session
LIVE SESSION 7
EXCEL SKILLS 6 Module 5 Knox 109
Review Module 5
7:30pm - 9:00pm

Week 15 5/3/2020 5/4/2020 5/5/2020 5/6/2020 5/7/2020 5/8/2020 5/9/2020


Module 5 PREPARE FOR
LIVE SESSION 8
Hmwk & Extra FINAL Final Review
Credit Modules 4-5
FINALS 5/10/2020 5/11/2020 5/12/2020 5/13/2020 5/14/2020 5/15/2020 5/16/2020

FINAL EXAM FINAL EXAM FINAL EXAM


OPEN CLOSE OPEN