t Dt Ft et |et| ME MAD

1 206 226 20 20 -0.33 18

2 211 231 20 20
3 225 190 -35 35
4 205 195 -10 10
5 232 212 -20 20
6 206 216 10 10
7 212 228 16 16
8 205 185 -20 20
9 208 238 30 30
10 225 215 -10 10
11 218 228 10 10
12 220 205 -15 15
-4 216
MAPE E^2 MAPE MSE ø
0.0971 400 0.0839 383.833 19.5916649 1.25* 22.5
0.0948 400
0.1556 1225
0.0488 100
0.0862 400
0.0485 100
0.0755 256
0.0976 400
0.1442 900
0.0444 100
0.0459 100
0.0682 225
1.007 4606
SEMANA DEMANDA PS Ft et |et| ME
1 200 -
2 220 200
3 170 210
4 200 196.666667
5 185 197.5
6 210 195
7 180 197.5
8 200 195
9 180 195.625
10 170 193.888889
11 210 212.5
12 190 210.454545
192.916667
MAD MAPE E^2 MAPE MSE ø
SEMANA DEMANDA PS PM PMt=3
1 200 -
2 220 200
3 170 210
4 200 196.67 196.67
5 185 197.5 196.67
6 210 195 185.00 196.67
7 180 197.5 196.39 196.67
8 200 195 196.67 185.00
9 180 195.63 195.83 198.33
10 170 193.89 196.04 191.67
11 210 212.5 194.84 196.67
12 190 210.45 194.84 186.67
192.92 190 183.333333
186.666667
190

con t=1
n= 3
SEMANA DEMANDA Ft Ft et |et| et% Chart Title
1 200 250
2 220
200
3 170
4 200 190.5 204
150
5 185 191.5 200.5
6 210 188.75 182 100
7 180 200.25 195.75
8 200 191 193.25 50
9 180 194 198.5
0
10 170 187 187 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
11 210 176.5 190
DEMANDA 200 PS -
12 190 193 179.5
13 195 186 Ch
14 250
15
200

150

100

50

0
1 2 3 4 5 6

DEM
 w1 w2 w3
0.55 0.35 0.1
Chart
(et)^2Title 0.1 0.35 0.55

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

DEMANDA 200 PS -

Chart Title Chart Title

250 250

200 200

150 150

100 100

50 50

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

DEMANDA PM DEMANDA Ft
 Chart Title

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

DEMANDA Ft
t Dt SE(a 0,1) et em |em|/n
1 50 47.30 -2.70 2.7 -0.59071438 0.054
2 35 47.57 12.57 12.57 0.35914286
3 42 46.31 4.31 4.313 0.10269048
4 45 45.88 0.88 0.8817 0.01959333
5 45 45.79 0.79 0.79353 0.017634
6 55 45.71 -9.29 9.285823 0.16883315
7 56 46.64 -9.36 9.3572407 0.16709358
8 46 47.58 1.58 1.57848337 0.03431486
9 42 47.42 5.42 5.42063503 0.12906274
10 57 46.88 -10.12 10.1214285 0.17756892
11 47.89
S -5.91 1.22993391

Pronostico Movil
con t=1 SEMANA DEMANDA et PM PMt=3 |et|
n= 3 1 50
2 35
3 42
4 45 -2.67 42.33 2.67
5 45 -4.33 40.67 4.33
6 55 -11.00 44.00 11.00
7 56 -7.67 48.33 7.67
8 46 6.00 52.00 6.00
9 42 10.33 52.33 10.33
10 57 -9.00 48.00 9.00
11 48.33
S -18.33
MAPE t Dt SE(a0,6) et
12% 1 50 47.30 -2.70 2.7
2 35 48.92 13.92 13.92
3 42 40.57 -1.43 1.432
4 45 41.43 -3.57 3.5728
5 45 43.57 -1.43 1.42912
6 55 44.43 -10.57 10.571648
7 56 50.77 -5.23 5.2286592
8 46 53.91 7.91 7.90853632
9 42 49.16 7.16 7.16341453
10 57 44.87 -12.13 12.1346342
11 52.15
mejor pronòstico S -8.08

em |em|/n MAPE
-2.619047619048 14.67%

0.05925926
0.0962963
0.2
0.13690476
0.13043478
0.24603175
60.00
0.15789474

1.02682158 50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5
20.00

10.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5

Dt SE
 em |em|/n MAPE
-0.80769105 0.054 14%
0.39771429
0.03409524
0.07939556
0.03175822
0.19221178
0.09336891
0.1719247
0.17055749
0.21288832

1.43791451

Chart Title

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Dt SE(a0,1) SE(a0,6) Column E