writing about the economic effect of the Coronavirus pandemic to the Dominican

Republic.
Melissa Roselys Fernández Gómez 2016-0148

Holding on to the original estimates made of what the behavior of the economy will be in 2020,
could cause us to fall behind, adjusting it based on the impact that the covid-19 coronavirus
begins to have, presents risks of imprecision; however, inaction to new forecasts would place us
in a position of unreal comfort, especially since it was generated in a country that is part of the
world center of the supply chain and that is complicated by the spread to no less than 140
countries, and even, due to its possible domino effect.

For the world economy perhaps the worst is not over, it could be just the beginning and for
more complication, an atypical start for the international markets, be they capital or
commodities, despite the reaction of the main central banks, which have dropped its interest
rates to almost zero, as is the case of the United States Federal Reserve, which has placed it
between 0-0.25%, in addition to asset purchases in the amount of US $ 700.0 million, in order to
stimulate the economy, facing the economic consequences of the new coronavirus in the world.

In the international financial crisis, while the world stock markets collapsed, the prices of the
main commodities rose, among others, oil, gold, the first with a price of US $ 80.0 dollars a
barrel, as of 2008 and the second, also, above US $ 1,000 an ounce. At the current juncture,
due to the global decline in the economy due to the covid-19, all prices have fallen, along with
the stock markets, a reflection that irrationality has taken over the markets.

Oil prices have fallen to unprecedented levels in the last three decades, to stand at US $ 30.63
a barrel, of the WTI type and the Brend to US $ 32.08, gold in the last week decreased by
14.6%, to stand at US $ 1,461 the ounce, the same is happening to copper, steel, wheat, corn,
soybeans, among others.

It is foreseeable further falls in the stock exchanges, given that the companies in the world have
not hit bottom - if the spread and deepening of the coronavirus continue - their financial
balances are declining and if they collapse, so will the stock markets, for its chain effect. For the
markets, the future is seen as the present is appreciated and today's is not bright, despite the
fact that the current may be temporary, panic, apparently is guiding the behavior of investors
and consumers, even irrationally, absent the optimistic behavior of even the dumbest, which
fortunately for them do not appear, giving more privilege to the behavior of the fittest, which as a
way of surviving does not work, contributing to the deepening of the financial collapse.
According to the Chinese press, the first patient who contracted covid-19 coronavirus was
diagnosed on November 17, 2019, in the town of Wuhan, Hubei in China.
 The importance of having identified it lies in being able to determine the origin of the contagion
and its transmission channel. From the first infection until March 16 in the morning, a total of
174,615 cases have been reported worldwide, of which 6,705 have died, for a mortality rate of
3.8%.

It is to be expected that a lethal pandemic with a high level of spread, of the covid-19 type, will
have direct and indirect repercussions on the economy, both for countries that suffer from
massive contagion and for those that have not been infected, they depend to a large extent on
international commercial activity, capital flows, remittances or inbound tourism.

Naturally, the depth of the impact on the economy will depend on the level of duration, the
magnitude of its spread, the time it takes to discover and develop a vaccine to combat its lethal
effects, and the effectiveness of public policies that are can implement to mitigate the effects, or
in the best case, counteract it.