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30 MARCH 2020
Global Overview
• COVID-19 outbreak continues to grow in many areas of the world, especially Europe and
USA, with severe toll on health (37k reported deaths), health care systems, and economies
Executive • Global equity markets have reacted aggressively to virus' spread beyond China with S&P500
seeing fastest 30% fall in history; Stimulus package announced by US followed by India
resulting in an uplift in Nifty last week
summary Evolving situation in India
(I/II) • COVID-19 cases in India have increased by 2.5x over last week to 1251, with majority of
cases concentrated in 8 states
• Central govt. announced a 21-day lockdown till 14 Apr'20 to contain the spread
• India's economy has been turbulent in recent past & COVID-19's immediate impact expected
to be felt across key parameters:
– $180Bn annual imports & exports linked to high exposure countries – US, Europe, UK,
Iran
– 25% of total workforce of 496Mn in India are casual labor with high exposure to
economic impacts of COVID-19; ~63Mn casual labor seeing a direct impact from
lockdown
1
Continued…
Evolving situation in India (Continued)
• Impact from lockdown varies across industries creating 5 key archetypes
– Industries like Travel, Auto, Construction, Consumer Durables are seeing a downside
whereas others like Digital Media, Consumer staples, Telecom are seeing an upside
• Wave 1 results of COVID-19 Consumer sentiment research for India reveal the following:
– Essentials, savings, health & wellness, at-home entertainment, and education most likely
to witness an increase
– Travel, outdoor leisure activities and discretionary spending likely to be hardest hit by a
Executive planned reduction in spends
summary • Analysis at a company level highlights that 200-300 of the top 1000 Public Indian Companies
may face liquidity crunch under ~4% to ~16% annual revenue decline situation
• For USA, emerging views on COVID-19 indicates a GDP drawdown greater than 2008
• As leaders, need to monitor key indicators to look out for how the scenario develops in India:
– Intensity: Virus properties, Mitigation policies & Healthcare effectiveness, Financial
system liquidity & confidence levels
– Geometry: Time to cure, Disease seasonality, Real economy capital & productivity shock,2
Impact on Global economy
Global overview
Focus of this
Evolving situation in India
document
3
Global Overview
4
178
UK Germany World India
France
Spain Iran
USA Italy China Japan Total
Switzerland South cases 781k 1251
India Korea
Total
101,739 Fatality
87,956 82,198 rate (%) 4.8% 2.5%
66,885
44,550 41,495
22,141 15,922 9,661 1,866 1,251
Recovery
USA Italy Spain China Germany France Iran UK SwitzerlandSouth Japan India rate (%) 21% 8.2%
USA, Italy & Spain surpassed China in
terms of confirmed cases
Korea
1. No. of infections considered based on confirmed medical tests 1 – 1000 1001-10000 10000+ 5
Sources: Johns Hopkins CSSE; Ministry of Health & Family welfare; BCG analysis
Data as of 30 Mar
30
Greater China
South Korea
0
0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000 175,000
Confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people Total # of tests performed2 per million people
10,000.0 1,000,000.00
Italy
0.1 0.01
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
GDP per capita, PPP1 GDP per capita, PPP1
Europe Asia North America South America Africa Oceania
1.GDP per capita is expressed in PPP (current, international dollars) based on 2018 2. Data for Iran is as on 14 Mar; China for data is not available as on date 7
Source: World Bank, Worldometers.info, Johns Hopkins, Media reports
Government responses1
(As of 29 Mar)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Number of days1
1. No. of days after exceeding 60 confirmed cases
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Government and media reports, BCG Henderson Institute analysis 9
Data as of 30 Mar
5
0 Feb. 21
-5
-10 Japan (Nikkei 225)
-10%
COVID
-20% 10/7/97 –
10/27/97
-30% 7/16/90 – 3/24/00 –
10/11/90 10/9/02
9/20/18-
-40% 11/28/80 – 10/9/89 – 7/16/99 –
12/24/18
8/12/82 1/30/90 10/15/99
-50% 2/13/80 – 10/10/83 – 8/25/87 – 7/17/98 – 10/9/07 – 5/21/15 – 1/26/18 –
3/27/80 7/24/84 12/4/87 8/31/98 3/9/09 2/11/16 2/8/18
2/19/20 – 3/30/20
Sensex drawdowns
0%
-20% COVID
-30%
-40%
Correction line (-10%) 12/27/02 – 1/15/08 – 5/21/15 –
-50% 3/31/03 3/31/09 2/12/16
Bear market line (-20%)
• S&P 500 index fell 30% in 22 trading days from 19th Feb, making it the fastest fall from peak in history
• Market has continued to decline due to COVID-19, at a much faster pace on both indexes than SARS
(2002); it is comparable or even faster than 2008 recession
Source: Bloomberg; BCG Center for Macroeconomics analysis 11
Early signs show China headed towards normalcy…
80% recovery of daily coal 50% recovery of property 40% recovery of metro
work resumed3 consumption1 (by Mar 24) transaction (by Mar 24) passengers2 (by Mar 24)
90+% (by Mar 17)
65 4,520
70 2019 metro
12
17
22
27
32
37
42
-18
-13
-8
-3
2
7
12
17
22
27
32
37
42
-18
-13
-8
-3
2
7
10
14
18
22
26
30
-18
-14
-10
-6
-2
2
6
Weekdays relative to Chinese New Year Weekdays relative to Chinese New Year Weekdays relative to Chinese New Year
1. Sum of Jerdin Electric, Guangdon Yudean Group, Datang International Power Generation, and Huaneng Power International, Inc.
2. Sum of Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, Xi'an, Suzhou, Zhengzhou, Chongqing 12
3. NDRC official statistics; Note: recovery defined as consumption of 2020 vs. 2019, based on the same weekdays relative to Chinese New Year; Source: WIND, NDRC
Evolving Situation in India
13
COVID-19 cases in India have increased by 2.5x over last week, with
majority of cases concentrated in 8 states
2-Mar
3-Mar
4-Mar
5-Mar
6-Mar
7-Mar
8-Mar
9-Mar
10-Mar
11-Mar
12-Mar
13-Mar
14-Mar
15-Mar
16-Mar
17-Mar
18-Mar
19-Mar
20-Mar
21-Mar
22-Mar
23-Mar
24-Mar
25-Mar
26-Mar
27-Mar
28-Mar
29-Mar
30-Mar
Kerala Tamil Nadu (67) Andaman
(202) and Nicobar Islands (9)
Source: Ministry of Health & Family welfare; Johns Hopkins CSSE, World Health organization 14
Non exhaustive Data as of 30 Mar
GDP growth %
Pre-COVID3 -1.1
Post-COVID4
Deutsche Bank Fitch Ratings Morgan Stanley J.P. Morgan
India: 1. Pre-lockdown forecasts were made during Feb 2020 / early March 2020; 2. Post-lockdown forecasts were made from 27th to 30th March 2020; Source: Reports from Moody's Investor
Service, EIU, S&P Global Ratings, CRISIL Ltd., Press search
World: 3. Pre-COVID forecasts were made during / before December 2019; 4. Post-COVID forecasts were made from 20th to 30th March 2020; Source: Reports from JP Morgan, Deutsche
Bank, Fitch Ratings & Morgan Stanley, Press search 16
Data as of 30 Mar
European countries;
317,052 9.9% 40.7 (8.4%) 25.0 (7.7%)
high COVID-19 exposure2
UK 22,141 18.4% 7.1 (1.5%) 8.9 (2.8%)
Middle east (except Iran) 21,479 19.7% 109.2 (22.6%) 56.4 (17.4%)
• India in top 15 economies affected due to supply chain • India’s largest export destinations—USA and EU are current epicenters
disruption in China of COVID-19
• Impact on organic chemicals, gems & precious metals, nuclear reactors & • Impact seen across exports, but mainly on gems and precious metals, textiles
parts & apparel, food products
High exposure countries3 Medium exposure countries3 Low exposure countries3 Others3
1. Value of Imports and Exports are for the period Jan-19 to Dec-19; 2. The information pertains to commodity trade only and does not include services
3. High exposure countries – USA, UK, Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Switzerland, Iran; Medium exposure countries – China; Low exposure countries – South Korea, Middle East (except Iran)
Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE, Comtrade Jan-19 to Dec-19, Global Trade Impact of (COVID-19) epidemic-UNCTAD report, Government and media reports, BCG analysis 18
25% of total workforce in India are casual labor with potential high
exposure to economic impacts of COVID-19
Sector-wise workforce distribution (FY 19)
No. of workers (Mn)
Regular wage/salary Own account worker, employer Helper in household enterprise Casual labor
1. Other services include financial & insurance, real estate, professional, scientific, technical, administrative & support, education, human health, social work, arts, entertainment &
recreation, other service activities, activities of households as employers; Source: Oxford economics estimates of employment FY19, Periodic Labor Force Survey; (PLFS) Jul-17 to Jun-18,
Press search 19
Data as of 30 Mar
1 1 1
Restricted Partially Restricted Not Restricted
(Non-essential products/ (Depending if product/service is (Essential products/services or not affected by COVID-19 takedown efforts)
services or affected by essential or work from home is
COVID-19 takedown efforts) possible)
Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?” Categories with Top 2 Box > 45% (5% more than average) classified as
winning categories 21
Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey (India), March 23-26 2020 (N = 2,106)
India—Wave 1—March 23-26
Note: Question text: “How do you expect your spend to change in the next 6 months across the following areas?" For non- mobile consumer electronics categories and cars, Bottom 2 box
is a sum of those who have already cancelled their plans to purchase and those who plan to spend less among those who still plan to buy in next 6 months. Categories with Bottom 2 Box > 22
38% (5% less than average) classified as losing categories Excludes categories with N <~100. Source: BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment Survey (India), March 23-26 2020 (N = 2,106)
% age of companies industry-wise to face liquidity crunch on revenue decline
Potential scenarios of Total # of 3-5% annual 7-9% annual 15-17% annual
liquidity crunch across top Companies Rev. decline Rev. decline Rev. decline
1. Data as on 31 Jan 2020 2. Exchange rate $1=INR 75 3. Restricted: Industries with supply side restrictions; includes Travel & tourism,
Auto & components, Building materials, Construction/Infra, Real estate, Consumer durables& discretionary, Forest products &
packaging, Fashion & luxury 4. Partially restricted: Transportation & logistics, Metals & mining, Machinery, Chemicals, Technology &
software 5. Nor restricted: Energy & utilities, Oil & gas, Financials, Consumer staples 24
Source: RBI database; Media reports; BCG analysis
Speed of recovery for industries will
be dependent on multiple drivers Multiple drivers will impact speed to recovery
for industries post outbreak period
2008 recession: Industries witnessed different rates of recovery;
Can act as a starting pt. to evaluate post COVID-19 recovery Not Exhaustive
11200
8300 19,500 32000
8100 10700 18,500
31000
7900 17,500
10200 16,500 30000
7700
7500 9700 15,500 29000
8% 6%
5%
6% 5%
4% 6% 4%
3% 4%
4% 3%
2% 2%
2% 2%
1% 1%
0% 0% 0% 0%
1. GDP impact in 2007-08 was due to both the global financial crisis, as well as an NPA crisis due to aggressive lending during this period in anticipation of infrastructure growth 29
Source: Oxford Economics database
COVID-19's impact on GDP needs to be assessed on intensity &
geometry of shock
Macro-economic impact along 2 Intensity & geometry of COVID-19 to be assessed on level
dimensions of impact to each dimension
Learnings from
(~0%) V U L previous economy
Intensity of shock
Demonetization
(2016)
shocks & recovery
(~4%)
V Agricultural crisis
(2002-03) U L paths for countries
like China will help
(2001)
V U L
capital, and productivity growth is
(>6%) large enough
Trend growth Trend growth
unaffected downgraded
• Recession likely
Geometry of shock (V-U-L)
1. Real GDP drawdown refers to decline in real output during the crisis relative to prior peak, this has been used to calculate impact for USA GDP
Source: NBER, BEA, BCG Center for Macroeconomics analysis 32
Key indicators to look out for as COVID-19 scenario develops in India
Intensity of impact Geometry of impact
Disease & health impact Financial & economic impact Disease & health impact Financial & economic impact
1 Virus properties 4 Financial system liquidity 1 Time to cure / vaccine 3 Financial system capital shock
• Transmissibility of • Repo market stress • Vaccine development • Capital adequacy ratio
disease • Commercial paper timeline • Volume of loan delinquencies
• Mortality rate market stress • Regulatory approval (bad loans, delayed payments)
• Bank liquidity ratios time expected
2 Mitigation policies (indicates fiscal policy 4 Real economy capital &
• Testing levels during adequacy) 2 Disease seasonality & productivity shock
early period of epidemic immunity • Investments in equity & debt
• Mitigation / suppression 5 Real economy liquidity & • Disease severity with • Index of industrial production
Now: Tackle Near-term: Prepare for the rebound, Seek Medium-term: Plan for the
immediate priorities advantage in adversity new reality post crisis
Max 2-3 weeks1 3-6 months1 Beyond 3-6 months1
Mobilize "war room" Fortify Reinforce Seize Reinvent self: 'Win in the new
liquidity & supply demand reality'
Protect employees and customers, profitability recovery
Re-establish
1. Timelines indicative: Linked to stage of crisis in each market and level of impact on each industry 35
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We will partner with you in getting the rapid response team kick-
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Checklists, bench- Up-to-date research Robust framework to Cash office setup, Day-to-day global
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37
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