Vietnam’s Relations with

China & the United States

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to International Conference on the
Role of Vietnam in the Asia-Pacific
December 10, 2010
 Outline
1 Vietnam’s
1. Vi t ’ Changing
Ch i World
W ld View
Vi
2.. V
Vietnam-China
e C Relations
e o s
3. Vietnam-United States Relations
4. Comparative Defence Relations: China &
USA
5. Conclusions
 1. Changing World Views

Z Antagonistic contradictions between

socialism
i li and d capitalism
it li
Z ‘who will triumph
p over whom’/friends
and enemies
Z Member
M b off socialist
i li t camp led
l d by
b USSR
Z Global integration
g equals
q assimilation
 Ch
Changing
i World
W ld Vi
Views
Z Multi-directional
M l i di i l foreign
f i policy
li (1991)
Z Four dangers (1994)
Z ‘friend and reliable partner with all
countries
i in
i the
h world’
ld’ (2001)
Z Interdependent world/integration
Z Comprehensive security
 Normalization
China-Vietnam United States-Vietnam
™ Cambodian Conflict 1979-91 ™ Vietnam War 1965-75

™ 1990-91 Normalization ™ 1994 trade embargo lifted

™ 1999-2000 Comprehensive ™ 1995 Normalization

Cooperation in the New
™ 2001 Bilateral Trade Agrm.
Century
™ 2004 annual defence
™ 2005 bilateral defence dialogue
consultations
™ JJune 2005 IMET
™ 2008 strategic partners Agreement and intelligence
sharing
™ 2009 strategic cooperative
partnership ™ 2008 1st Political,
P li i l Security
S i
and Defense Dialogue
2. Vietnam and Risingg China
Mature
Asymmery
•Acknowledge
A k l d
ment of China
Viet Nam pre-eminence
•Acknowledge
ment of
Vietnam’s
autonomy
Asymmetric Relations
 Vietnam’ss 3 Strategies
Vietnam
Relegate contentious issues to 
technical working groups

Promote multilateral efforts

Self‐help – develop defence
capacity
 Long‐term 
Agreements

Joint Steering 
Defence ties
Committee

Economic  High‐level 
relations party visits
party visits

High‐level 
High level
state visits
Bilateral Issues
 D f
Defence White
Whit Paper
P 2009
Z Southeast
S h Asia:
A i ‘basically
‘b i ll stable
bl security
i
situation’
Z Potential risks of conflict still remain
Z Territorial
T i i l di disputes over land
l d and
d sea
have been more complicated, in
particular
i l those
h relating
l i to sovereignty
i
and national interests in the East Sea
h
have been
b on the
h rise’
i ’
 Maritime Strategy
T
Towards
d the
th Year
Y 2020
$11 billion 
deficit 
with China
with China

Economic 
and Trade 
Relations
$9 billion
$9 billion 
surplus 
with the 
US
3. Vietnam
Vietnam-U.S.
U.S. Relations
Economic-
Economic
co o c-Political
o t ca Relations
e at o s

Z 2006 Bilateral human rights talks resumed

Z 2006 U.S. ggrants PNTR status, approves

pp Vietnam’s
WTO membership

Z 2006 President Bush attends APEC Summit in Hanoi

Z President Nguyen Minh Triet visits U.S. (6/07),

Z Prime
Pi Minister
Mi i Nguyen
N Tan
T Dung
D visits
i i U.S.
U S (6/08)

Z Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung attends Nuclear

S f
Safety Summit
S i (4/2010)
 D f
Defence Relations
R l ti
• Exchanges of Defence Ministers
2000 2003 (turning point),
2000, point) 2006 and 2009

• Political, Security and Defense Dialogue (2008)

• S
State & Foreign
F i Affairs
Aff i

• Defense Policy Dialogue (August 2010)

• Deputy Assistant Secretary-Vice Minister
 1st JJoint N
Naval Engagement
g g
Activities (Aug 2010)

15th Anniversary of US-Vietnam Diplomatic Relations

USS John S S. McCain makes port call Da Nang
4. Comparative
p Defence Relations
‘Three No’s’
1. No military alliances
2. No foreign military bases on
Vietnamese territory
3. No use of third countries to combat
another country
 High--Level Defence Visits
High

China-Vietnam United States-Vietnam

Z 2002
2002-1010 six visits by Z 2000
2000-10
10 two visits
i i by
b U.S.
US
Vietnamese Defence
Minister and two return Secretary of Defense and
visits by Chinese Defence two visits by Vietnamese
Minister Defence Minister
Z Equal exchanges by chiefs of
General Staff, GPD and Z 1994-2010: nine visits by
GLD (political/logistics) Commander U.S. Pacific
Command
Z Exchanges by Military
Region Commanders
Comparative
p Defence Relations

Z Naval port visits

Z Joint naval exercises
Z Professional Military Education and Training
Z Other defence cooperation
Z Arms sales
Z National defence industry
 Vietnam-China Strategic
Cooperation
Z 2005 April 1st security and defence consultations

Z 2005 October – Agreement on joint naval patrols in the

Gulf of Tonkin

Z 2006 November 2nd security and defence consultations

Z 2007 August Border Defence Cooperation Agrm.

Z 2009 September 3rd security and defence consultations

Z 2010 November 1st Strategic Defence Security

Dialogue
 Vietnam-U.S. Strategic
Cooperation
Z Attended meeting of Proliferation Security Initiative
held in New Zealand

Z 2004 Attended CHOD meeting (Asia-Pacific Chiefs of

Defence)) for first time,, Tokyo
y

Z U.S. Global Threat Reduction Initiative

Z Shangri-La Dialogue (2008)

Z US Chairman JCS met with Vietnam representative
 5 Conclusions
5.

1. How is Vietnam responding to the rise

of China?
2. Why is Vietnam recalibrating its
relations with the United States?
3 What is Vietnam’s
3. Vietnam s strategic significance
as the Asian century unfolds?
 Responding
p g to China’s Rise

President Ng
Nguyenen
Minh Triet in Beijing,
May 2007 and in
Washington, June
2007

Balancing, alignment,
accommodation,
accommodation
engagement, band-
wagon, hedging or
enmeshment?
ASEAN Defence Ministers Plus 8

China

Russia USA

New
A t li
Australia ASEAN Zealand

South
Japan
Korea

India
Plus USA & Russia
 USS JohnD.
JohnD Stennis US Nuclear submarine Pacific
April 2009 Command December 2009

USS George H.W. Bush Aug 2010 USS George Washington Aug 2010
 Vietnam’s Strategic
g Significance
g

1 South China Sea littoral state

1.
2. Emerging
g g middle income country
y
3. Gradual defence modernisation
4. Key player in ASEAN
5 Key player in regional architecture
5.
6. Potential strategic
g p partner of US
Vietnam’s Relations with
Chi & the
China th United
U it d States
St t

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to International Conference on the
Role of Vietnam in the Asia-Pacific
December 10, 2010