Jerusalem Issue Briefs-New Developments in Iran's Missile Capabilities: Implications Beyond the Middle East
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http://jcpa.org/...ID=442&PID=0&IID=3074&TTL=New_Developments_in_Iran%27s_Missile_Capabilities:_Implications_Beyond_the_Middle_East[12/19/2010 1:43:57 PM]
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Home » Jerusalem Issue Briefs » New Developments in Iran's Missile Capabilities: Subscribe
Implications Beyond the Middle East
by  Dr. Uzi Rubin Your email here
Published August 2009
 Daily Alert
Vol. 9, No. 7   25 August 2009  Jerusalem Issue Brief
 Post Holocaust Anti-Semitism
 Changing Jewish
Communities
New Developments in Iran's Missile Capabilities:
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Implications Beyond the Middle East
Uzi Rubin Our Fellows' Books
Click here to down the powerpoint presentation that accompanied the
briefing.
Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile and space programs at
an almost feverish pace with impressive achievements. The
Iranians have upgraded their ballistic missiles to become satellite
launchers. To orbit a satellite is a highly sophisticated endeavor. It
requires proficiency in stage separation and advanced guidance
and control systems to insert the satellite into a stable, desired
trajectory. They took the Shahab, extended it a bit, added a new
lightweight second stage, and now they have the Safir space
launch vehicle. The very capability to build a two-stage satellite La Shoah
launcher, rather than the usual three-stage rockets for space-lift - Freddy Eytan-
vehicles, is quit remarkable by itself - an impressive engineering
Publications List
achievement.
Show Publications
In spite of the Missile Technology Control Regime and in the face By Year
of sanctions, Iran has succeeded in acquiring the needed By Author
infrastructure and to raise a cadre of proficient scientists and
engineers backed by academic research institutes. Iranian missile Search Articles
technology now seems to be more advanced than that of North Keywords
Korea.
Topic
The solid-propellant Sejil missile signifies a technological and
All
All
strategic breakthrough. This missile already poses a threat to a
number of European Union countries. Based on its demonstrated Date
Anytime
Anytime
achievements in solid propulsion and staging, Iran will face no
significant hurdle in upscaling the Sejil into a compact, survivable
intermediate-range ballistic missile. A range of 3,600 km. will be
Send to a friend
sufficient to put most of the EU under threat.
Print page
Contrary to a recent report by U.S. and Russian scientists
published by the EastWest Institute in Washington, D.C., the solid-
propellant technology demonstrated by the Sejil gives the Iranian a
key for longer-range missiles that could be deployed in a
survivable manner from Western Iran. The report claims that it will
take the Iranians just six years to develop a nuclear warhead that
could be carried by a ballistic missile. By that time the Iranians
might already have the appropriate missiles to carry such
warheads. The West would do well to start preparing its defenses
Jerusalem Issue Briefs-New Developments in Iran's Missile Capabilities: Implications Beyond the Middle East

right now.  

Iran Invests in Nuclear and Missile Technology

The cumulative weight of Iranian missile development achievements in the

last two years puts Iran's programs into a context which might be wider
than the Middle East. Up to now, the Iranian programs could fit only a
local scenario. However, recent developments may show not necessarily
the intention but at least the capability of the Iranians to extend their
missile program to potential targets beyond the Middle East.

The Iranians love to show their hardware in parades. They have two
armed forces: the army and the Pasdaran, the Revolutionary Guard. The
army holds its parade on April 22 every year, while the Pasdaran holds its
parade in December. During the big parade the army held in 2008, they
displayed guns and artillery, all of which had been purchased before 1979
during the time of the Shah. They showed a modern tank that they make
in small numbers, but most were Soviet T55s, a tank from the 1950s.
Obviously they are not investing much money in ground forces or in new
armament.

During the air show, some 220 planes flew above Tehran, but, again, they
were F5s made in America and bought during the Shah's time, Mirage
F1s, and Iraqi aircraft which were flown to Iran during the Gulf War. There
were F4 Phantoms, F14 Tomcats, and MIG 21s. The most modern fighter
aircraft they flew was a MIG 29 from 1992.

So we see that the money is not being invested in the ground forces or in
the air force. Where is the money going? It goes into nuclear technologies
and missiles. They can make all the excuses in the world that everything
is for peaceful purposes, but the fact is that Iran's biggest budgets are
going to nuclear technology and missile technology.

Iran's Engineers Become More Advanced than North Koreans

In 1988 the Iranians had only Scud B and Scud C missiles. Ten years
later they had their first operational Shahab III. The Iranians bought the
Shahab, which has a range of 1,300 km., from North Korea, including the
production line. We now see the Iranians building underground silos for
the Shahab, to make it more survivable.

The Iranians are also now capable of taking an unguided rocket like the
Zalzal - that Hizbullah also has - and turning it into a guided rocket with a
range of 200 kilometers. This is an original Iranian project; we don't see it
anywhere else.

They have also upgraded their ballistic missiles to become satellite

launchers. To orbit a satellite is a very complicated project. There are
missile stages, and a careful guidance and control system to insert the
satellite into a stable, desired trajectory. They took the Shahab, extended
it a bit, added more propellant, and now they have the Safir space launch
vehicle. They launched it twice and the second time it was successful; for
a while they had a test satellite in orbit. They built a two-stage satellite
launcher with a very elegant upper stage, incomparable to anything we
know - an impressive engineering achievement.

Up to now, North Korea has been the fountainhead of technology to Iran.

In the 1990s and the early 2000s we saw the North Korean No-dong
missile appearing in Iran, as well as the Shahab II and Shahab III, which
in North Korea are called the Wassong V and Wassong VI. The Scud is a
North Korean invention which was also exported to Iran. But looking at
April's North Korean satellite launch attempt, they used a satellite launcher
that looks nothing like what we see in Iran. It was completely different,
much bigger and heavier, and with three stages.

This means that the connection between Iranian and North Korean

http://jcpa.org/...ID=442&PID=0&IID=3074&TTL=New_Developments_in_Iran%27s_Missile_Capabilities:_Implications_Beyond_the_Middle_East[12/19/2010 1:43:57 PM]

Jerusalem Issue Briefs-New Developments in Iran's Missile Capabilities: Implications Beyond the Middle East

technology is not that tight anymore, and the pupils are now the teachers.
The Iranians have reached a level of proficiency which has disconnected
them from North Korea and in some cases they are more advanced than
the North Koreans. The Iranians are now going to deploy a missile which
is nothing like what the North Koreans have, so a connection may now be
the other way around. Start watching Iran not as a market for North
Korean merchandise but as an exporter of Iranian missile technologies.

Iranian Breakthrough: A Solid Fuel Missile

On May 19, 2009, the EastWest Institute issued a report entitled Iran's
Nuclear and Missile Potential: A Joint Threat Assessment by U.S. and
Russian Technical Experts, claiming that "There is no reliable information
at the present on the state of Iran's efforts to develop solid propellant
rocket motors." The next day, on May 20, the Iranians successfully fired a
solid fuel Sejil rocket. Solid propellant leaves a trail of particles behind,
while liquid propellant has transparent flames that don't leave any trail, so
video reports of the launch are quite revealing.

What is also impressive here is the pace of development. In 2005 we

heard for the first time about the coming of the Sejil. The first flight
occurred thirty months after the end of development of the solid propellant
motors. Iran's space program is even more impressive.

They have the engineers to understand what they are doing. They have
the system engineers to engineer fixes and they have the program
managers to run the whole program. They have demonstrated the ability
to manufacture a 14-ton solid propellant rocket motor, and they have the
infrastructure they need. To build such a rocket you need big, expensive
installations. They are not available for sale, they are controlled by the
Missile Technology Control Regime, but Iran has managed to acquire
them. All of this infrastructure is in Iran. Another point on the proficiency
of their engineers: I received a list of Iranian technical publications from
the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, all of them dealing
with big solid propellant rocket motors.

The Iranians conducted six major tests of multi-stage missiles in eighteen

months by two different teams from two different test ranges with all the
instrumentation and flight control guidance system telemetry. When there
is a challenge, they overcome the challenge.

Europe Coming into Iranian Missile Range

The Iranian defense minister has spoken of two missiles: the Kadr I that
goes 2,000 km. and the Sejil that goes more than 2,000 km. Why is 2,000
km. significant? Less than 2,000 km. does not threaten Europe. Beyond
that you are starting to threaten Europe.

Two weeks after the EastWest Institute report came out, Ted Postol of
MIT, one of its authors, published an addendum to the report. Based on
data he presented, our calculations show that the Sejil has an actual
range of about 2,500 km. Such a range could reach Warsaw and, indeed,
six European Union countries: Poland, Slovakia, Rumania, Hungary,
Bulgaria, and Greece. The Tabriz launch area in Iran is as big as
Azerbeijan, bigger than Israel and half of Jordan. It's about 50,000 sq.
km., full of mountains, valleys, and canyons. You can hide thousands of
ballistic missiles there with a very high probability of survival. So the
capability to make a survivable missile that can threaten Europe now
exists in Iran.

Iran is vigorously pursuing several missile programs and a space program

at a feverish rate. No one else, except the Chinese perhaps, is working at
such a speed. In spite of all the sanctions, the Iranians have managed to
acquire all the needed infrastructure to make advanced missiles and

http://jcpa.org/...ID=442&PID=0&IID=3074&TTL=New_Developments_in_Iran%27s_Missile_Capabilities:_Implications_Beyond_the_Middle_East[12/19/2010 1:43:57 PM]

Jerusalem Issue Briefs-New Developments in Iran's Missile Capabilities: Implications Beyond the Middle East

develop a technology cadre. They are building up technological

universities. They have been in the business for twenty years.

The solid propellant Sejil is the watershed breakthrough. The Iranians

have the technology right now to produce an intermediate range ballistic
missile that can threaten Europe. Whether they do it or not involves the
question of intention, but they are capable of doing it. The EastWest
Institute report estimates that it will take Iran about six years to fit a
nuclear warhead on a missile. If this is true, then the time to start missile
defense in Europe is now. The fact that the Iranians are building that
capability is something that should be brought to public view.

The distance from Iran to Israel remains the same no matter what missiles
the Iranians develop. From an Israeli anti-missile defense perspective, the
threat remains more or less the same, whether it's a Shahab III or a Sejil.
But while the implications of Iran's continued missile development are not
so great from an Israeli point of view, they may be quite significant for
those who live beyond the Middle East.

*     *     *

Uzi Rubin has been involved in Israeli military research, development, and
engineering programs for almost forty years. Between 1991 and 1999 he
served as head of Israel's Missile Defense Organization, and in that
capacity he oversaw the development of Israel's Arrow anti-missile
defense system. He was awarded the Israel Defense Prize in 1996. This
Jerusalem Issue Brief is based on his presentation to the Institute for
Contemporary Affairs in Jerusalem on August 6, 2009.

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