Accelerating Solar Energy

in New York
in New York
D
December 15, 2010
b 15 2010

Cornell ILR
Kamen Family Home – Binghamton, NY
 21 Pine
Trees - each
70 years old
& 50’ tall,
t ll
lined the
driveway &
surrounded
th house
the h
Force III - 3rd longest Tornado in recorded history
May 31,
31 1998
Before

After
“ Iʹd put my money on the sun 
and solar energy
and solar energy. 
What a source of power! 
I hope we donʹt have to wait till 
oil and coal run out
oil and coal run out 
before we tackle that.“

Th
Thomas Edison
Edi
9
 Available Energy Sources

WIND1,2 Natural Gas 1,8

25‐70
SOLAR 10
per year Waves11,3
215
total
0.2‐2
23,000 per year Petroleum 1,8
OTEC1,4
3 ‐11 per year 240
total

World energy use
16 TW‐yr Biomass 1,5 Uranium 1,9
per year 2 – 6 per year
90‐300
Total

HYDRO 1,6
3 – 4 
3 – 4 per year
per year

Geothermal1,7 COAL 1,8
TIDES 1 0.3 – 2 per year 900
0.3 per year Total 
reserve

http://www.asrc.cestm.albany.edu/perez/ © R. Perez et al.
Su eo
Surgeon
A hit t
Architect
P liti i
Politician

11
 Populist Republican Congressman

“It’s amazing how innocent & ignorant
the American public is about Energy ”
the American public is about Energy.

“They are very well represented in 
Congress”
g

12
 “C” Changes
5000 MWs PV + 2000 MWs Solar Thermal
IInstallation Contractors
a a io o a o
Manufacturers
Service Providers

NYS Assemblyman & Senators

Public Service Commission
NYSERDA
Environmental Organizations

IBEW
Sheetmetal Workers
Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Plumbers & Pipefitters
Do not distribute or copy
 800
800+ new jobs in 2010
j b i 2010

Sunwize Solar Applicances
Atl ti E
Atlantis Energy (li hti
(lighting, ventilation, 
til ti
Globe Specialty Metals LEDs)
Precision Flow Net Zero Energygy
Spectrawatt Widetronix
SolarTech Renewables
Prism Solar
Prism Solar Armistead Mechanical
Armistead Mechanical
Perreca Electric
Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Do not distribute or copy
 Solar in NY State

NY State boasts a solid foundation of 
solar installations upon which 
future growth will be built
future growth will be built.
Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Do not distribute or copy
 NYS Office of General Service (OGS)
W llkill Correctional
Wallkill C ti l Facility
F ilit
2010 Best NYS Government Solar Project

Silicon Solar
Solar Thermal
Hot Water

48 SunMaxx 30
Evacuated Tube
Collectors

Lifetime Savings:
160,000 gal OIL
 United States General Services Agency (GSA)
J
Jacob
b K.
K Javits
J it Federal
F d l Building
B ildi 26 Federal
F d l Plaza
Pl NYC
2010 Best Federal Government PV Project in NYS

Mercury Solar
/ConEd Solutions
PV

11 KW

NYC Building Integrated

Lifetime Savings:
242,000 KWh
 Fort Drum
2010 B
Bestt F
Federal
d lG Governmentt
Solar Thermal Project in NYS

SolarWall by
Conserval
Solar Thermal
Air Heating

4 MWs Solar Thermal

Lifetime Savings:
8.7 Million Therms
 NY Institute of Technology
El t i Carport
Electric C t PV Ch
Charging
i Station
St ti
2010 PV Innovation

EmPower
10 KW

Lifetime Savings:
220,000 KWh
 The Wild Center
NY’ N
NY’s Natural
t l Hi
History
t M
Museum off th
the Adi
Adirondack’s
d k’
2010 Solar Thermal Innovation

CSA Architects
54,000 ft2 building

Wood Pellets +
Solar Thermal
 Smithtown Schools
2010 B
Bestt R
Rooff M
Mountt PV Project
P j t

LIPA
PV

110 KW

Lifetime Savings:
2.4 Million KWh
 Town of Esopus
2010 B
Bestt G
Ground
dMMountt PV Project
P j t

Alteris
PV

77 KW Tracking

Lifetime Savings:
2.1 Million KWh
Rockland County Co‐Compost Facility

14,100 
Gallons Oil / Year

$1.00/Gallon
20+ Years
20+ Years
 Ronnybrook Farm Dairy
2010 B
Bestt G
Ground
dMMountt Solar
S l Thermal
Th l Project
P j t

EarthKind
Solar
Solar Thermal
H tW
Hot Water
t

30 Flat Plate
Collectors

Lifetime Savings:
50,000 Gallons Oil
 Hudson Valley Clean Energy
Rhinebeck 
h b k
Net Zero Commercial Building
Hudson Valley Clean 
Hudson Valley Clean
Energy
‐ PV
‐ Geothermal
‐ Solar Thermal
Hot Water
Hot Water
Net Zero Energy
Net Zero Carbon
Net Zero Carbon
Zero Fossil Fuels 
 Hamptons Green Alliance (HGA) House
Southampton 
h
Net Zero Residential Building
Sunstream USA

‐ PV
‐ Geothermal
h l
‐ Solar Thermal
Hot Water
Net Zero Energy
Net Zero Carbon
Zero Fossil Fuels 
 Solar PV
HISTORICAL APPROXIMATIONS

PV 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

NYSERDA & LIPA per Year 1 3 6 12  22 

CUMULATIVE: 1 4 10 22  44 

RPS $24M/Yr 
$24M/Y
Geo Bal + $30M/ Yr

ARRA $
$16M

LIPA $23M +  
50 MWs
Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Do not distribute or copy
NYPA 100 MWs
 Solar PV
Total Annual $ $ / Watt Total Watts Installed $ $ NYS Market

NYSERDA $ 25,000,000
$          , , $                     1.75           14,285,714
$ , , $                     5.00 $
$ $        71,428,571
, ,
LIPA $         23,390,000 $                      1.75            13,365,714 $                      5.50 $         73,511,429
Geo Balance $         30,000,000 $                      1.00            30,000,000 $                      5.00 $      150,000,000

Total:           57,651,429

57 651 429 $ 294,940,000
$      294 940 000

~57 MWs / Year

$300 Millon Industry

+ LIPA
LIPA 50 MW
50 MWs
Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Do not distribute or copy + NYPA 100 MWs
Genesis of the DOE initiative:

30
 NYS Electricity Prices

How Much do you and your residents 
How Much do you and your residents
pay for Electricity Today?

Statewide Average: 16 cents / kwh

Downstate: 21+ cents / kwh

Downstate: 21+ cents / kwh
Solar Electric (PV ‐ Photovoltaics)

2010 Solar PV
2010 Solar PV 

Average Family Net Zero (9 KW)

Installed Price:

$50,000
Solar Electric (PV ‐ Photovoltaics)

20 Year Generation: 
@ 10,000 kwh/year  = ~200,000 KWhs or

25 Cents per KWh 
for 20 Years 

BEFORE Tax Credits
Solar Electric (PV ‐ Photovoltaics)

WITH

Residential 30% Federal Tax Credit

+
NYS $5,000 Tax Credit

15
15 cents/ kwh 
t /k h
f 20
for 20 years
 Solar Thermal

Solar Thermal Energy 
is used throughout the world
is used throughout the world 
to pre‐heat Hot Water & Space Heat 
b f
before using fossil fuels.
i f il f l

Solar Heat & Hot Water 
Solar Heat & Hot Water
is generally 
50% 70% less expensive 
50% ‐ 70% l i
than PV
with 4 times the Carbon Offset
h h b Off
The Solar Heat Opportunity

• New York City has the densest concentration of 
electric power in the world, and 80% of all carbon
electric power in the world, and 80% of all carbon 
emissions are from buildings.

• Even in NYC ‐ more than HALF the energy is 
used for heat & hot water! The percentage is
used for heat & hot water! The percentage is 
higher everywhere else.

• In an average NYS residence: 1/3 of the fuel is for 
hot water
hot water
 Solar Hot Water

20 Year Generation 
@ 150 Gallons Oil / year
@ 150 Gallons Oil / year  
= ~3,000 Gallons of Oil

$2.67 per Gallon

$2.67 per Gallon
for 20 Years
for 20 Years 

BEFORE Tax Credits
Tax Credits
 Solar Hot Water

WITH

Residential 30% Federal Tax Credit

+
NYS Tax Credit

$1 20 / G ll
$1.20 / Gallon 
f 20
for 20 years
 Solar THERMAL
HISTORICAL APPROXIMATIONS
2006 2007 2008 2009

NYSERDA & LIPA per Year

NYSERDA & LIPA per Year 0.5 0.5 1                 5

CUMULATIVE:         0.5             1             2             7

ANNUAL % GROWTH RATE 100% 400%

2,000 MW Solar THERMAL Goal: by 2020
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

NYSERDA & LIPA per Year                   8                 12                 19                 31                 48                 76               119               188               295               465            731

CUMULATIVE:           15           27           47           77        126        201        321        509        804    1,269   2,000
Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
ANNUAL % GROWTH RATE
Do not distribute or copy 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57% 57%
 NYSEIA 2020  Solar Thermal Goals

•Increase the total amount of installed NYS ST 
capacity from 8 MW to 2000MW
p y
•Annual Installations:
—2010:   500 Systems
2010: 500 Systems
—2020:   83,000 Systems
•Increase market to $600 million annually
•Total ST Projected Sales 2010‐2020: $2.6B
oa oje e a e $
 Car

Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Do not distribute or copy
 Electricity

Car

Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Do not distribute or copy
 Electricity

Telephone
Car

Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Do not distribute or copy
 Electricity
Color 
TV

Telephone
Car

Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Do not distribute or copy
 Microwave
Electricity
Color 
TV

Telephone
Car

Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Do not distribute or copy
 DVD 
Players 

Personal 
Computers Digital Cameras
Camera Phones
Cell 
C ll
Phone Home Networks

Video Games DVD  Recorders 

MP 3 Players

Confidential and Proprietary, 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Do not distribute or copy
 1,600 

1,400 

1,200 

750 MWs by 2015, 2000 by 2020, 5000 by 2025
1,000 
Consistent Growth to 2000 MWs by 2020

800 
Consistent Growth to 5000 MWs by 2025
Consistent Growth to 5000 MWs by 2025

600  Staggered Growth Scenario ‐ 25%, 30%, 40% 

Staggered Growth Scenario ‐ 40%, 30%, 20% 
400 

Staggered Growth Scenario Goals: 500 MWs, 
200  2000 MWs, 5000 MWs

‐
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Confidential and Proprietary, 
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 NYS Solar Coalition Annual PV Targets ‐
NYS Solar Coalition Annual PV Targets ‐ To 5,000 
To 5 000
MWs 
Utilities LIPA NYPA TOTAL

2012 52 103 103 258 

58
2013 77 119 119 315 
2014 103 134 134 372 
2015 155 155 155 464 
2016 222 181 181 583 
2017 310 206 206 722 
2018 439 232 232 903 
2019 619 284 284 1 187
1,187 
2020 877 335 335 1,548 
2021 1,187 387 387 1,961 
2022 1 445
1,445 490 490 2,425
2,425 
2023 1,858 619 619 3,096 
Confidential and Proprietary,  2024 2,374 800 800 3,973 
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
Do not distribute or copy 2025 3,096 1,032 1,032 5,160 
 NY Solar Jobs Act

Cumulative Economic Impacts

p (through
( g 2025))

New Jobs 22,198

Economic Output $20 billion

Average Residential Rate Impact:

Confidential and Proprietary, 
39¢ per month
©2006 Navigant Consulting, Inc.
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 Poster at Jon Stewart “Rally for Sanity”

“We’re
We re making enemies
making enemies
Faster than we can
Faster than we can
Kill the ”
Kill them.”

50
 ACORE 2010 Conference 
Renewable Energy Phase II
Renewable Energy Phase II

US N
US Navy Vice Admiral 
Vi Ad i l
Dennis McGinn
(Retired)

¾Jobs 
Jo
¾National Security
y
51
 Thomas P Grumbly
Thomas P. Grumbly, 
Vice President, 
Lockheed Martin

•Commitment
C it t
•Execution
•Long Term Market Signals

52
NYSEIA’S 2011 Goals

• Create fully funded 5,000MV PV program
•E
Ensure success of NYS RPS Incentive Program for electric 
u e u e of NYS RPS I e ti e P o a fo ele t i
hot water users ‐ $4.3M per year thru 2015
• Build
Build support for 2,000 MVs of ST, focusing on oil and 
support for 2,000 MVs of ST, focusing on oil and
natural gas programs
• Grow NYSEIA’s membership, expand legislative and 
regulatory impact
l
• Governor Elect Cuomo supports Solar Energy